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View Full Version : Kyle Lohse hasn't lost since May 8.



redsrule2500
07-11-2008, 08:35 AM
In 11 starts since then, he's 7-0 with a 2.78 ERA :thumbdown

Pitchers like this and Dempster are why I feel like the Reds coaching staff is just plain terrible.

Tony Cloninger
07-11-2008, 09:25 AM
Dempster was pitching badly more due to injury.....how long did it take him to start pitching well again...after Cincinnati.

Loshe....now that looks real bad...not just for Cincy but MINN as well. Both teams could not get him focused in the head...so it matched the talent in his arm.

You always get some players that perform better than expected with other teams after sucking on yours. Look at Aurilia in his 2 years before Cincy and 2 years after.

Johnny Footstool
07-11-2008, 09:26 AM
Lohse's peripherals tell me he's been lucky instead of good. His K/9 is in the toilet.

princeton
07-11-2008, 09:27 AM
I hear that certain Cardinals posters are afraid that they'll actually lose their first-born sons should Lohse reach 16 wins.

lollipopcurve
07-11-2008, 09:11 PM
Seven shutout innings so far tonight, heading to 11-2 with an ERA below 3.5 and a WHIP below 1.30.

GAC
07-11-2008, 09:38 PM
Lohse's peripherals tell me he's been lucky instead of good. His K/9 is in the toilet.

We have a winner. :thumbup:

And he'll score big, being a Boras client, in the off-season.

I still pass.

Virginia Beach Reds
07-11-2008, 11:00 PM
We have a winner. :thumbup:

And he'll score big, being a Boras client, in the off-season.

I still pass.


I don't understand how you can say that. He'd look pretty good if we still had him. Granted, he wasn't consistent when we had him but he did show flashes of being good. Plus the Cards have him on a one year pretty cheap.

mth123
07-11-2008, 11:04 PM
I don't understand how you can say that. He'd look pretty good if we still had him. Granted, he wasn't consistent when we had him but he did show flashes of being good. Plus the Cards have him on a one year pretty cheap.

He wouldn't do that here for several reasons:

1. GABP
2. Dick Pole is no Dave Duncan
3. Defensive atrocities named Griffey, Encarnacion, Ross, Keppinger, Dunn and Votto

He's Josh Fogg in a better environment.

Jpup
07-11-2008, 11:12 PM
He wouldn't do that here for several reasons:

1. GABP
2. Dick Pole is no Dave Duncan
3. Defensive atrocities named Griffey, Encarnacion, Ross, Keppinger, Dunn and Votto

He's Josh Fogg in a better environment.

he's better than Josh Fogg, but I agree with the rest.

Big Klu
07-12-2008, 12:39 AM
We have a winner. :thumbup:

And he'll score big, being a Boras client, in the off-season.

I still pass.

As I said in a different thread, I see Yankee pinstripes in his future.

Patrick Bateman
07-12-2008, 12:46 AM
It's not the coaches. Coaches don't teach luck. As Johnny noted, his periphs are no different than usual. Basically you plug him in a pitcher's park, put a nice defense behind him, and you'd be surprised what he can do.

No, he's not Josh Fogg. He's basically the same guy he was hear. A league average starter. His 4M deal was nice when he was here, and it was nice when the Cards got him. But don't be fooled into thinking this guy has suddenly turned into an allstar. He's the same dude wearing a different costume.

OnBaseMachine
07-12-2008, 01:25 AM
It's not the coaches. Coaches don't teach luck. As Johnny noted, his periphs are no different than usual. Basically you plug him in a pitcher's park, put a nice defense behind him, and you'd be surprised what he can do.

No, he's not Josh Fogg. He's basically the same guy he was hear. A league average starter. His 4M deal was nice when he was here, and it was nice when the Cards got him. But don't be fooled into thinking this guy has suddenly turned into an allstar. He's the same dude wearing a different costume.

Ding, ding, ding...we have a winner.

WVRedsFan
07-12-2008, 01:27 AM
It's not the coaches. Coaches don't teach luck. As Johnny noted, his periphs are no different than usual. Basically you plug him in a pitcher's park, put a nice defense behind him, and you'd be surprised what he can do.

No, he's not Josh Fogg. He's basically the same guy he was hear. A league average starter. His 4M deal was nice when he was here, and it was nice when the Cards got him. But don't be fooled into thinking this guy has suddenly turned into an allstar. He's the same dude wearing a different costume.

I tend to agree with you with one exception. We've all seen lucky pitchers and Jimmy Haynes is at the top of the list. Lohse has some talent and due to the fact that he had Dave Duncan as pitching coach, he's become better. Kyle sucked on the road with us, too and was so inconsistent, but watching him off and on tonight, he's a much better pitcher since he's gone to St. Louis. There has to be a reason for that.

I hear all this lucky and unlucky stuff so much, but the truth is, you make your luck. I watched Bray and Majewski tonight and both had "unlucky" stuff happen to them. Both pitches were horrible pitches and the batter got the bat on the ball. Regardless, the duo gave up three hits in 2/3 innings which resulted in 4 runs. Yep, they were unlucky, but 4 runs resulted. If only they had not been so unlucky...

There is something to learning how to pitch. The Kyle Lohse I saw tonight was a different guy than I saw in Cincinnati. There has to be a reason for that.

We tend to bash former Reds that go elsewhere (especially St. Louis and Chicago), when they do well. That's jsut fandom. It just might be that our guys just don't get the proper instruction or hav ethe proper attitude they need to be successful. Poor defense? That means you delete Dunn, Griffey, Ecarnacion. your shortsop of the day and even your first baseman. Tonight I saw a game where not a single marginal play was recorded because the pitching was so good. that's not luck. That's pitching well.

Patrick Bateman
07-12-2008, 01:47 AM
I always thought the Lohse' inconsistency was hyperbolic. Most people expected a big stuff, low control type of guy. I've always seen him as basically living off his control. There is really nothing special about his stuff. He works the corners, and stays in the strikezone. That's him most of the time, and even on those days he can get beat around when his batted balls don't find gloves. Honestly, I've watched him a few times this season and don't see much different. I see the same guy trying to induce contact and keep walks to a minimum.

I saw him live last year at GABP, where I believe he pitched something like a 6 hit shut out against the Pirates. He wasn't particularly electric that day or anything, the balls just seemed to find guys.

The one advantage he has had this year is that he's gotten more grounballs than he typical has had in recent years. It's enough of a difference to cut his homeruns down a bit. Not enough to sustain his current rates (you can thank his ballpark for large parts of that), but there is a potential improvement there. So I'll give you that, but then again, we are disecting a 100 inning sample, hardly enough to make a definitive response on whether he has made a truly impactful change.

Either way, this improvement shouldn't cut his ERA down a full run, more like down from 4.60 to 4.20... or basically a similar amount of runs the average pitcher in the NL has "improved" this year (4.70 to 4.48). Overall, I just don't see a heck of a lot of things that Lohse has done himself to become a greatly improved player.

To me, it looks like there are a lot of forces that Lohse has no control over aligning together at the same time. I see a guy with a nice defense, a nice ballpark, and a noticeable leaguewide downward shift in scoring to make Lohse appear like an improved pitcher. I think in Cincy, you'd find him to be basically the same guy he was last year, and it's more the results making him look a lot more enticing. He picked a nice spot to go to this offseason, that's for sure.

BTW, I'm sure that last comment wasn't neccessarily directed at me, but I always one of the more supportive posters supportive of Lohse here. I argued his merits as a middle of the rotation bargain at 4M. I do think that his skillset fits quite well on a good defense, large ballpark team, where his biggest nemisis, his lack of K's, isn't harmed as much as it is in Cincy where fielders muff balls, and flyballs go over walls. At 4M, I would have been supportive of bringing him back, but I wouldn't expect anything more than a marginally better version of the guy we had last year. And that's not bad. I think as we are seeing right now, those guys can be quite uesful, but I think it's best not to fall in love with relatively small samples when a career of evidence is available.

GAC
07-12-2008, 06:33 AM
I don't understand how you can say that. He'd look pretty good if we still had him. Granted, he wasn't consistent when we had him but he did show flashes of being good. Plus the Cards have him on a one year pretty cheap.

Only because Boras wasn't able to bamboozle any team to give the guy a 4-5 year contract @ around 10 mil/year. Would you, based on this guy's history of inconsistency? In the off-season, while Kyle was sitting at home worrying, teams were offering minor league deals to guys like Benson and Ponson.

He finally has to settle for a 1 year deal with the Cards because no one was beating down this guy's door. And it should also be noted that the Cards wanted an option for '09 but Boras refused. Why? He still wants that big pay day for Lohse. So Kyle gets to do it all over again at season's end.

You can't make decisions THEN based on the NOW. No one has that type of foresight.

And that is why the guy was not a Red or Philly after the '07 season.

The guy has always had trouble missing bats.

I liked this article on Lohse....

http://blog.stats.com/2007/07/whiff_profile_kyle_lohse.html

Why do some guys, with ostensibly good stuff, get shelled, while others, with the same stuff and comparable command, get outs?

Kyle Lohse is a prime example of a guy who appears to have good stuff: He's capable of hitting the mid-90s with his heater (even high-90s as a reliever) , each offering in his repertoire is crisp, and he consistently mixes them during each start. So why has he been so hittable during his big league career?


It's possible that there's simply a major lack of deception with his delivery--he creates comfortable at-bats--while somebody else, with very similar, if not ostensibly inferior stuff (like Chris Young), creates discomfort at the plate.


Lohse has an eye-opening WHIFF rate for one particular pitch, and it's for all the wrong reasons. Lohse's curveball is currently drawing a whiff rate of .031. That is to say, he's coaxed just one (1) swing-and-miss out of the 38 swings hitters have taken against this pitch...a big breaking ball. This is not a good pitch. The opposition is hitting .500 against it, and slugging .607. Fortunately, this is his least used pitch, but it might not be a terrible idea to ditch it completely.


His fastball, meanwhile, is near the bottom quartile of baseball. Lohse is getting a .097 WHIFF with it.


His slider is more towards the middle, but still in the lower half, posting a .255 WHIFF.


Fortunately for Lohse, his changeup has been a very good option. He's posted a .311 WHIFF, while the oppostion has hit only .184 against it, and slugged .298.


Kyle Lohse WHIFF Breakdown
Fastball - .097 (MLB AVG .140)
Curveball - .031 (MLB AVG .273)
Slider - .255 (MLB AVG .298)
Change - .311 (MLB AVG .275)

membengal
07-12-2008, 08:04 AM
Eh, he's having the contract drive now I hoped he would have last year in Cincy, allowing the Reds to flip him for significant value.

If I were the Cards GM, I would trade him after the break for a nice little return.

GAC
07-12-2008, 10:15 AM
Eh, he's having the contract drive now I hoped he would have last year in Cincy, allowing the Reds to flip him for significant value.

If I were the Cards GM, I would trade him after the break for a nice little return.

And I know one team, even though they are looking for pitching help in the second half, who won't come a calling.... his former employee the Phils. ;)

But I agree with you. Unfortunately, I doubt the Cards will divest themselves of him since they too are still in the hunt and he's been a big part of their success in '08.