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jojo
07-11-2008, 09:47 AM
Here's an article about Dunn (http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/looking-at-what-dunn-has-done/#comments) written by Eric Seidman at fangraphs that basically illustrates the uniqueness of Dunn.

For Reds fans that frequent RedsZone, the uniqueness of Dunn is not exactly a novel concept.

That said, Seidman frames the issue in the context of Dunn's '08 very low BA and high OPS and points out that Dunn's low BA has been driven by an abnormally low BABIP. This suggests that Dunn has had a monster first half of the season that has been masked by some unfortunate luck.

BABIP will tend to regress to the mean over time (i.e. it's most likely that his next 300 PA will be characterized by his career norm BABIP of .290 rather than his pre-ASB BABIP of .245). If indeed Dunn maintains his performance level of the first half and his BABIP simply regresses to his norm, we could be treated to one of the more spectacular second halves in recent Reds history. If for some crazy reason he maintained his performance but his BABIP did a wild swing to say .340 during the second half, we'd be watching a historic explosion for a Reds slugger.

The Reds would have no choice but to try and resign him. I'm not suggesting that such a turn of events would mean resigning him would be wise (my argument against resigning him would largely be unchanged), but rather, such a second half would basically force the Reds hand. It might also make it impossible for them to resign him.

Now BABIP isn't the end all prism for interpreting Dunn's '08 performance so far (it's really a pretty shallow, rough justice look that doesn't explore other possible reasons for the unique nature of his first half or differences in his performance), but maybe it's the perfect springboard for starting an interesting discussion that asks:

Is Dunn a ticking bomb that is about to explode?????????

Here's to hoping he'll kick a hole in the post-ASB sky....

Debate/discuss?

oneupper
07-11-2008, 09:50 AM
I like the response that "melted" had:


melted said,
July 10, 2008 @ 10:12 pm

What do you know about the player?

hah, pretty amusing that Gene Tenace - the Blue Jays current hitting coach - met those first criteria.

The General Manager doesn’t care much for Dunn as a player, feeling that he leaves something to be desired, but is fine with someone that put up similar numbers as a player coaching up his hitters.

Is that irony?

flyer85
07-11-2008, 09:53 AM
interesting article ... I am not sure that any major league teams have a clue that a simple regression to the mean of BABIP will likely produce a big 2nd half.

dougdirt
07-11-2008, 09:53 AM
I wonder what the shift has to do with his low BABIP. BABIP and is .290-.310 is based on a whole lot of data throughout the history of the game.... but has anyone ever done a study on BABIP on players who have the shift employeed against them a majority of the time? The difference between Dunn right now and Dunn with a .290 BABIP is 6 or so hits. I don't think its crazy to suggest the shift has taken that many hits away from him this year so I don't really think its crazy to suggest his BABIP won't regress to the norm as long as he keeps hitting into the shift.

flyer85
07-11-2008, 09:53 AM
IIRC, Tenace killed the Reds in the 72 series.

flyer85
07-11-2008, 09:54 AM
I wonder what the shift has to do with his low BABIP. BABIP and is .290-.310 is based on a whole lot of data throughout the history of the game.... but has anyone ever done a study on BABIP on players who have the shift employeed against them a majority of the time? The difference between Dunn right now and Dunn with a .290 BABIP is 6 or so hits. I don't think its crazy to suggest the shift has taken that many hits away from him this year so I don't really think its crazy to suggest his BABIP won't regress to the norm as long as he keeps hitting into the shift.Teams have played the shift against Dunn for the last 2-3 years.

BuckeyeRedleg
07-11-2008, 09:55 AM
I liked this response as well.



I was watching ESPN yesterday, I believe it was Mike and Mike in the Morning when Tim Kurkjian was on the phone as a guest, and they were talking about all of the rumors of pitchers being traded in the wake of the Sabathia and Harden deals. It was noted that there aren’t too many hitters being bandied about in rumors, and if I recall correctly, Timmy K. went out of his way to say that, while Dunn was probably going to be made available, he was not a “big bat.”

My jaw dropped because I thought Tim was a numbers guy. I wasn’t thinking that he was a strict adherent of Sabermetrics, but I assumed that he was diverse enough in the philosophies to realize that, unless you put all your eggs in the “Rah rah batting average” and “Strikeouts indicate baseball incompetence” baskets, Adam Dunn is easily one of the top-ten most productive hitters in all of baseball — maybe top five.

Dunn and Pat Burrell are very similar, it seems. Burrell doesn’t have as much power but their hitting approaches are very similar and, without running the numbers, I would bet that they’re close to each other in Three True Outcomes.

It takes people a while to realize how valuable players like those two are — it took most of Philadelphia eight seasons to jump on Burrell’s bandwagon. The rest of the country has yet to catch on, seeing as how Corey Hart (whose nickname will heretofore be “Undeserving”) was voted in for the last spot in on the NL All-Star roster. The fans had two chances, and the players had a chance too, and neither party arrived at the correct conclusion by not only voting Burrell in, but by nominating him as a starter.

Unsurprisingly, Dunn was not even in the picture when it came to All-Star spots. Adam Dunn: 133 OPS+; Kosuke Fukudome: 113 OPS+; Corey Hart: 117 OPS+.[/rant]

SMcGavin
07-11-2008, 09:56 AM
I wonder what the shift has to do with his low BABIP. BABIP and is .290-.310 is based on a whole lot of data throughout the history of the game.... but has anyone ever done a study on BABIP on players who have the shift employeed against them a majority of the time? The difference between Dunn right now and Dunn with a .290 BABIP is 6 or so hits. I don't think its crazy to suggest the shift has taken that many hits away from him this year so I don't really think its crazy to suggest his BABIP won't regress to the norm as long as he keeps hitting into the shift.

I thought that at first too, but they shifted against him last year and his BABIP was .309. They shifted against him the year before and it was .278. I believe the writer was not saying Dunn will regress back around .290 because it is the major league average, he was saying it was Dunn's career average.

flyer85
07-11-2008, 09:58 AM
BTW, I still think there is a good chance Dunn will be traded. I wouldn't be shocked if the A's attempted to acquire him.

dougdirt
07-11-2008, 09:58 AM
Teams have played the shift against Dunn for the last 2-3 years.

Which to me could suggest Dunn has possibly been a tad bit lucky to carry his BABIP as high as he has over that period of time. Its obvious that the shift is taking hits away from certain guys, Dunn included. To this point its roughly 6 hits that is keeping him 'unlucky' on the BABIP scale of things. Given how defenses play him and how he hits, I don't really see his BABIP being all too unlucky.

jojo
07-11-2008, 10:02 AM
I like the response that "melted" had:

Ya. That's a good catch and kinda funny.

Wheelhouse
07-11-2008, 10:15 AM
I wouldn't sign him. Let's look at two factors: when he puts the ball in play, and when he doesn't. An abnormal number of his hits are HRs--in fact when you talk about Dunn's actual base hits, Home Runs are the only issue. Now, given that, if the Reds played at Petco, or Coors I would sign him, where you need the monster blast to get a HR. But there is no need for his kind of power playing 82 games at GASP (Great American Small Park). Many players could hit 40 HRs for the Reds, players who hit in the 25-30 HR range elsewhere. Now the difference with Dunn is when he hits them, they're way out, and he can hit 40 at GASP OR Petco. Not many players can do that. Continuing: when Dunn doesn't hit the ball, he walks, or strikes out. If he made more contact, he might hit 60 HRs as GASP, with some of his "poorly" hit balls leaving the yard in Cincy. But he's not that guy--you get 3 outcomes with Dunn: deep HR, walk, or K. However, when he doesn't hit the ball it can have benefits--let's look at them: The walks have value if he's a top of the lineup guy, which he isn't in this administration, or if he's a good baserunner, which he isn't in any administration. And the strikeouts are of course WPO (Worst Possible Outcome). As far as defense, the tractor mowing the lawn in left is more nimble than our beloved Adam is. So to summarize, based on his hitting and the Reds ballpark, they CAN replace Dunn's production by signing a 25 hr guy who hits for high average and decent OBP, whose production will be amplfied by playing in Cincinnati. However they can probably sign him for less money than Adam. Sweeten it by signing a guy who plays defense and you could help the Reds' pitching as well--bottom line: Dunn should be playing where his characteristics can do the most benefit for a team--not in Cincinnati.

Johnny Footstool
07-11-2008, 10:16 AM
Dunn probably will put up a monster second half...for some other team.

Johnny Footstool
07-11-2008, 10:22 AM
I wouldn't sign him.

I'm shocked.


But he's not that guy--you get 3 outcomes with Dunn: deep HR, walk, or K. However, when he doesn't hit the ball it can have benefits--let's look at them: The walks have value if he's a top of the lineup guy, which he isn't in this administration, or if he's a good baserunner, which he isn't in any administration.

Walks have value for any and every player. That fact is really indisputable.


And the strikeouts are of course WPO (Worst Possible Outcome).

No, the worst possible outcome is a first-pitch, infield pop-up. Even a 3-pitch strikeout is better, because you at least force the pitcher to throw 3 pitches.


So to summarize, based on his hitting and the Reds ballpark, they CAN replace Dunn's production by signing a 25 hr guy who hits for high average and decent OBP, whose production will be amplfied by playing in Cincinnati. However they can probably sign him for less money than Adam. Sweeten it by signing a guy who plays defense and you could help the Reds' pitching as well

Who is this magical free agent, and why haven't the Reds found him already?

RedsManRick
07-11-2008, 10:28 AM
When it comes to Dunn's offense, I often wonder how he'd be though of differently if he hit .280/.380/.520 instead of .240/.380/.520. I find it fascinating that a change in the composition of his stats which would not have a significant affect on his overall level of production would likely turn perception of him from just a "Big slugger who strikes out a lot" to "one of the best hitters in baseball".

There's no doubt in my mind that if he hit .280 without changing his OBP or SLG, we'd be talking about a significant haul in a trade at least equal to what the Brewers got for Lee or Sexson. Instead, nobody's interested. Boggles my mind.

flyer85
07-11-2008, 10:30 AM
they CAN replace Dunn's production by signing a 25 hr guy who hits for high average and decent OBP

.290+ AVG
.370+ OBP
.470+ SLG

Is that what they are looking for?

flyer85
07-11-2008, 10:33 AM
BTW, LFs(averaged) in the majors have the following line to this point in the 2008 season.

.264 BA
.340 OBP
.430 SLG
12 HRs

SteelSD
07-11-2008, 10:39 AM
If he made more contact, he might hit 60 HRs as GASP, with some of his "poorly" hit balls leaving the yard in Cincy.

Assuming similar Fly Ball rates and HR per Fly Ball rates to 2008 based on Dunn's career average AB per season, Dunn would have to eliminate every single one of his strikeouts to even approach 60 HR while playing half his games in the GABP.

Acting as if a player is somehow deficient because he can't do the impossible isn't exactly a good starting or ending point.

RedsManRick
07-11-2008, 10:40 AM
Regarding FA, here's my list of options in descending order of likely production:

Pat Burrell
Milton Bradley
Bobby Abreu

Casey Blake
Raul Ibanez
Juan Rivera
Eric Hinske
Craig Monroe
Mark Kotsay

After the first 3, it's a pretty ugly list. I'm with Jojo, I'd like to see us make a pass at Randy Winn.

westofyou
07-11-2008, 10:42 AM
What another Dunn thread with obligatory Dunn ripps and Dunn wishes?

Same thoughts - Check

Same people with same thoughts - check

Nothing new said so far - check

nate
07-11-2008, 10:45 AM
I wouldn't sign him. Let's look at two factors: when he puts the ball in play, and when he doesn't. An abnormal number of his hits are HRs--in fact when you talk about Dunn's actual base hits, Home Runs are the only issue.

Is that a problem? What percentage of his hits are HR? What's the league average?


Many players could hit 40 HRs for the Reds, players who hit in the 25-30 HR range elsewhere. Now the difference with Dunn is when he hits them, they're way out, and he can hit 40 at GASP OR Petco. Not many players can do that.

So why hasn't anyone else done it then?


Continuing: when Dunn doesn't hit the ball, he walks, or strikes out.

Isn't that the same for every player?


The walks have value if he's a top of the lineup guy, which he isn't in this administration, or if he's a good baserunner, which he isn't in any administration.

Walks never don't have value.


And the strikeouts are of course WPO (Worst Possible Outcome).

A strikeout is worse than hitting into a double play?


As far as defense, the tractor mowing the lawn in left is more nimble than our beloved Adam is. So to summarize, based on his hitting and the Reds ballpark, they CAN replace Dunn's production by signing a 25 hr guy who hits for high average and decent OBP, whose production will be amplfied by playing in Cincinnati. However they can probably sign him for less money than Adam. Sweeten it by signing a guy who plays defense and you could help the Reds' pitching as well--

OK, here's the list:

Left fielders

Moises Alou (42)
Garret Anderson (37) - $14MM club option for '09 with a $3MM buyout
Milton Bradley (31)
Emil Brown (34)
Pat Burrell (32)
Adam Dunn (29)
Cliff Floyd (36) - $2.75MM club option for '09 with a $0.25MM buyout
Luis Gonzalez (41)
Raul Ibanez (37)
Jacque Jones (34)
Kevin Mench (31)
Jason Michaels (33) - $2.6MM club option for '09
Craig Monroe (32)
Jay Payton (36)
Wily Mo Pena (27) - $5MM club option or $2MM player option for '09
Manny Ramirez (37) - $20MM club option for '09
Juan Rivera (30)


Center fielders

Rocco Baldelli (27)
Mike Cameron (36) - $10MM club option for '09 with a $750K buyout
Jim Edmonds (39)
Jacque Jones (34)
Mark Kotsay (33)
Corey Patterson (29)


Right fielders

Bobby Abreu (35)
Casey Blake (35)
Milton Bradley (31)
Cliff Floyd (36) - $2.75MM club option for '09 with a $0.25MM buyout
Brian Giles (38) - $9MM club option for '09 with a $3MM buyout
Ken Griffey Jr. (39) - $16.5MM club option for '09 with a $4MM buyout
Vladimir Guerrero (33) - $15MM club option for '09 with a $3MM buyout
Jacque Jones (34)
Bobby Kielty (32)
Brad Wilkerson (32)


Who would you replace Dunn with from these choices?

flyer85
07-11-2008, 10:46 AM
I'd like to see us make a pass at Randy Winn.I'd pass on the 35+ OFs. PECOTA sees a VORP of 11.0 in 2009 and it drops off the table after that.

nate
07-11-2008, 10:48 AM
What another Dunn thread with obligatory Dunn ripps and Dunn wishes?

Same thoughts - Check

Same people with same thoughts - check

Nothing new said so far - check

Don't worry, we'll be starting up a "Drew Stubbs: Bust or Phenom?" thread real soon.

flyer85
07-11-2008, 10:49 AM
Reds problem is that they have had 4 effective offensive players so far this season(on a not very good offense)

BP 23.4
Dunn 22.0
Hairston 19.4
Votto 14.5

Subtract one for 2009 in Dunn and the odd of Hairston even coming close to repeating this season are extrememly small. The offense is likely to really struggle next season.

RedsManRick
07-11-2008, 10:55 AM
I'd pass on the 35+ OFs. PECOTA sees a VORP of 11.0 in 2009 and it drops off the table after that.

I guess I phrased it wrong. I would rather us go after Randy Winn than offer multiple years to any OF on the FA market not named Dunn or Burrell.

Looking at this market, Burrell and Teixeira are only guys I'd throw big contracts at, and frankly I doubt we'll be able to come close to what they end up getting. Jocketty is going to need to be creative on the trade front in order to give us the talent we'll need to take advantage of this competitive window.

jojo
07-11-2008, 11:18 AM
I'd pass on the 35+ OFs. PECOTA sees a VORP of 11.0 in 2009 and it drops off the table after that.

Pecota sees Winn as almost the exact guy he is this season but with less playing time in '09 (i.e. he'd have a VORP of 18 in '09 over 162 games, FYI league average for any given year is somewhere around 20 to 25 for a corner OFer). He's a plus defender and GABP would five him a boost.

Just for fun, this is what BR's conversion tool suggests Winn would be doing in GABP this season (using '07 NL run scoring as the backdrop): .309/.380/.441.

So there's a reasonable chance that Winn could be a roughly league average leftfielder in GABP next season. He could probably be had for next to nothing with the only risk being he'd completely fall off of a cliff and they'd be stuck salary ($8M) but GABP could probably help minimize that risk. Plus he's capable of giving them a RHed boost against lefties. Of course none of this eliminates the chance he'd suddenly fall of a cliff. There aren't many red flags to suggest he's slowing down yet though.

Anyway, the argument isn't that a player like a Winn would replace Dunn. It's that a player like that could account for a chunk that makes it possible for another player to account for a chunk etc.... It's an argument that points to the whole rather than focusing on a specific much like the Ms managed to survive the successive loss of three future HOFers to win 116 games in '01.

redsmetz
07-11-2008, 11:20 AM
Who is this magical free agent, and why haven't the Reds found him already?

The earlier poster said there were plenty of guys who could hit 40 HR's playing at GABP. And yet since it opened in 2003, only one player has done so and that is Adam Dunn. Griffey came the closest in 2005 with 35 HR's and both Griff and Phillips hit 30 last year.

And with regards to that same posters comment about Dunn's one dimensional offense, it's overlooked that Dunn has averaged 25 Doubles in the 7 1/2 years he's roamed the Reds outfield.

westofyou
07-11-2008, 11:21 AM
The earlier poster said there were plenty of guys who could hit 40 HR's playing at GABP. And yet since it opened in 2003, only one player has done so and that is Adam Dunn. Griffey came the closest in 2005 with 35 HR's and both Griff and Phillips hit 30 last year.

And with regards to that same posters comment about Dunn's one dimensional offense, it's overlooked that Dunn has averaged 25 Doubles in the 7 1/2 years he's roamed the Reds outfield.

Facts are a bad way to phrase an argument, might I suggest conjecture and innuendo? ;)

Wheelhouse
07-11-2008, 12:19 PM
I'm shocked.

Point to statement? Other than to express bitterness?

Walks have value for any and every player. That fact is really indisputable.

Walks are much more valueable at the top of the lineup. Indisputable.

No, the worst possible outcome is a first-pitch, infield pop-up. Even a 3-pitch strikeout is better, because you at least force the pitcher to throw 3 pitches.
Well done. Do you like "gotcha." you're still not winning any converts...


Who is this magical free agent, and why haven't the Reds found him already?
I'm on my iPhone and can't create a list, but are you saying those players are not obtainable?

flyer85
07-11-2008, 12:24 PM
I guess I phrased it wrong. I would rather us go after Randy Winn than offer multiple years to any OF on the FA market not named Dunn or Burrell.I could see WInn as a fallback, the preference I would hope is to find a younger player undervalued in his current situation.

RedsManRick
07-11-2008, 12:44 PM
I could see WInn as a fallback, the preference I would hope is to find a younger player undervalued in his current situation.

Fair enough. I'm thinking of acquiring for something like Belisle and Coffey. I wouldn't give up anything much of value.

Any specific ideas for other targets? Reggie Willits has been brought up, but I'm not convinced he's anything more than Scott Podsednik with a touch more plate discipline. Andre Ethier? Chad Tracy? Brandon Boggs? Denard Span? Brett Gardner?

After looking through depth charts, I'm quite amazed at just how weak OF is these days. All the power seem to be in the IF. The more you look for potential Dunn replacements, the more you appreciate just how much production he provides. He's no bargain, but good luck finding somebody as reliable to give you as much production for your dollar.

Johnny Footstool
07-11-2008, 12:46 PM
I'm on my iPhone and can't create a list, but are you saying those players are not obtainable?

Theoretically, sure.

Realistically?

Your requisites are hazy, but I'll try to define them.

You said "sign," not "trade for," so we're looking for a free agent.

High average: .300, I assume.

Good OBP: .350+, I assume.

25 HR.

Looking at the list nate posted, the only guys under 35 who fit that mold are Milton Bradley, Vlad Guerrero, and possibly Juan Rivera.

The fragile-bodied and even more fragile-minded Bradley is in the midst of a career year in Texas. He'll demand as much if not more money than Dunn, and he'll play half as many games as Dunn over the course of his contract.

Guerrero isn't coming to Cincinnati, not even in dreams.

Juan Rivera, who has put up those kinds of numbers exactly once in his eight-year career, is currently sporting a robust .221 BA and a .642 OPS. But I guess he's the guy you want.

wolfboy
07-11-2008, 12:48 PM
I wouldn't sign him. Let's look at two factors: when he puts the ball in play, and when he doesn't. An abnormal number of his hits are HRs--in fact when you talk about Dunn's actual base hits, Home Runs are the only issue. Now, given that, if the Reds played at Petco, or Coors I would sign him, where you need the monster blast to get a HR. But there is no need for his kind of power playing 82 games at GASP (Great American Small Park). Many players could hit 40 HRs for the Reds, players who hit in the 25-30 HR range elsewhere. Now the difference with Dunn is when he hits them, they're way out, and he can hit 40 at GASP OR Petco. Not many players can do that. Continuing: when Dunn doesn't hit the ball, he walks, or strikes out. If he made more contact, he might hit 60 HRs as GASP, with some of his "poorly" hit balls leaving the yard in Cincy. But he's not that guy--you get 3 outcomes with Dunn: deep HR, walk, or K. However, when he doesn't hit the ball it can have benefits--let's look at them: The walks have value if he's a top of the lineup guy, which he isn't in this administration, or if he's a good baserunner, which he isn't in any administration. And the strikeouts are of course WPO (Worst Possible Outcome). As far as defense, the tractor mowing the lawn in left is more nimble than our beloved Adam is. So to summarize, based on his hitting and the Reds ballpark, they CAN replace Dunn's production by signing a 25 hr guy who hits for high average and decent OBP, whose production will be amplfied by playing in Cincinnati. However they can probably sign him for less money than Adam. Sweeten it by signing a guy who plays defense and you could help the Reds' pitching as well--bottom line: Dunn should be playing where his characteristics can do the most benefit for a team--not in Cincinnati.

WPO? Are you kidding me? What's next? A Defensive RVOT (Replacement Value Over Tractor) measure?

As others have stated, I'd love to see a list of names of guys that would replace and exceed Dunn's production in the lineup. Of course, that's sure to be as amusing as WPO.

Big Klu
07-11-2008, 12:49 PM
Many players could hit 40 HRs for the Reds, players who hit in the 25-30 HR range elsewhere.

Only eight players have ever hit 40+ HRs in a season for the Reds: Ted Kluszewski (3x), Wally Post, Johnny Bench (2x), Tony Perez, George Foster (2x), Greg Vaughn, Ken Griffey Jr., and Adam Dunn (4x).

Dunn is the only Reds player who has put up a 40+ HR season while playing at GABP, and he has four of them.



I could see WInn as a fallback, the preference I would hope is to find a younger player undervalued in his current situation.

A buddy of mine is a Cardinals fan, and he says that Jocketty (who he wishes was still in the Cards' FO) likes to clear salary space by signing relatively inexpensive veterans and undervalued journeymen, then using the savings to pick up front-line players (and their contracts) in mid-season. He had no qualms about giving Reggie Sanders or Juan Encarnacion a starting job in the OF. I could see Randy Winn as being that kind of player. You mentioned that you prefer younger, undervalued players--that is also a possibility, as Jocketty signed Ryan Ludwick as well.

Cyclone792
07-11-2008, 12:51 PM
WPO? Are you kidding me? What's next? A Defensive RVOT (Replacement Value Over Tractor) measure?

As others have stated, I'd love to see a list of names of guys that would replace and exceed Dunn's production in the lineup. Of course, that's sure to be as amusing as WPO.

What's ironic about the supposed "WPO" is that strikeouts aren't it; GIDPs would fit under that classification. And Dunn rarely grounds into a DP. Brandon Phillips, on the other hand, kills many rallies with his GIDP prowess.

The offensive GIDP is the most important "little stat" that is often ignored by the masses.

flyer85
07-11-2008, 01:03 PM
Nelson Cruz is a guy who could be decent and might surprise if given a chance a play. He is no longer a youngster but we be a perfect guy to give a chance. There is no upside with an old guy like Winn.

I like guys like Willits, Gardner and Spann but they will be tougher to acquire.

jojo
07-11-2008, 01:17 PM
I could see WInn as a fallback, the preference I would hope is to find a younger player undervalued in his current situation.

Certainly Winn isn't THE answer but he's a potential part of a solution.

edabbs44
07-11-2008, 01:18 PM
What's ironic about the supposed "WPO" is that strikeouts aren't it; GIDPs would fit under that classification. And Dunn rarely grounds into a DP. Brandon Phillips, on the other hand, kills many rallies with his GIDP prowess.

The offensive GIDP is the most important "little stat" that is often ignored by the masses.

Would one classify a "GIDP" as being luck dependent?

Discuss.

jojo
07-11-2008, 01:21 PM
A guy like Wlad Balentein could also be a potential answer but he'd be a question mark and may not even be available(he's out of options though).

wolfboy
07-11-2008, 01:22 PM
What's ironic about the supposed "WPO" is that strikeouts aren't it; GIDPs would fit under that classification. And Dunn rarely grounds into a DP. Brandon Phillips, on the other hand, kills many rallies with his GIDP prowess.

The offensive GIDP is the most important "little stat" that is often ignored by the masses.

Agreed. That's why I got such a chuckle out of it.

dougdirt
07-11-2008, 01:23 PM
Certainly Winn isn't THE answer but he's a potential part of a solution.

I think this is something that those wanting to resign Dunn no matter what seem to overlook. Odds that the Reds replace Dunn in a 1 for 1 spot on the roster via free agency/trade/prospect from the minors? Not too good. However the odds that you can replace Dunn with one of those options + the extra money you will have to spend elsewhere on the team and have an overall team replacement of Dunn's production is much more likely.

jojo
07-11-2008, 01:26 PM
Would one classify a "GIDP" as being luck dependent?

Discuss.

Probably to the same extent that you could classify Derrek Lee's .304 batting average as luck dependent.

westofyou
07-11-2008, 01:29 PM
Would one classify a "GIDP" as being luck dependent?

Discuss.

Sure you're lucky to have a guy on base in front of you and the pitcher is lucky if you are a bat on the ball line drive type of hitter, the pitcher is also lucky if he has stellar infield defense behind him.

But some hitters were made for the GIDP

Reds all time season leaders, only Phillips had significant stolen bases above league average and he's the only one who had speed.



GIDP YEAR GIDP SB
1 Ernie Lombardi 1938 30 -4
2 Sean Casey 2005 27 -6
T3 Ernie Lombardi 1933 26 -2
T3 Dave Parker 1985 26 -11
T3 Brandon Phillips 2007 26 20
6 Joe Adcock 1951 25 -4
T7 Ray Knight 1980 24 -17
T7 Ernie Lombardi 1934 24 -4
T7 Ernie Lombardi 1939 24 -4
T10 Frank McCormick 1940 23 -5
T10 Bret Boone 1998 23 -6
T10 Frank McCormick 1939 23 -5
T10 Dave Concepcion 1985 23 1

redsmetz
07-11-2008, 01:37 PM
It should be noted that both Lombardi and McCormiack won the MVP in '38 and '40 while getting into the Reds Top 10 GIDP list.

Johnny Footstool
07-11-2008, 01:41 PM
Would one classify a "GIDP" as being luck dependent?

Discuss.

Yes. Not as random as a sac fly, but in that same neighborhood of situations that are mostly out of the batter's control.

Red Heeler
07-11-2008, 01:49 PM
I think this is something that those wanting to resign Dunn no matter what seem to overlook. Odds that the Reds replace Dunn in a 1 for 1 spot on the roster via free agency/trade/prospect from the minors? Not too good. However the odds that you can replace Dunn with one of those options + the extra money you will have to spend elsewhere on the team and have an overall team replacement of Dunn's production is much more likely.

The Reds are currently 44-49 and 21st in MLB in runs scored. They need to ADD to Dunn's production, not just replace it.

Now I'm not opposed to letting Dunn go, but I think it has been shown that replacing him, let alone bettering his production is a tall order.

IslandRed
07-11-2008, 01:53 PM
I liked this response as well...

I believe it was Mike and Mike in the Morning when Tim Kurkjian was on the phone as a guest, and they were talking about all of the rumors of pitchers being traded in the wake of the Sabathia and Harden deals. It was noted that there aren’t too many hitters being bandied about in rumors, and if I recall correctly, Timmy K. went out of his way to say that, while Dunn was probably going to be made available, he was not a “big bat.”

My jaw dropped because I thought Tim was a numbers guy. I wasn’t thinking that he was a strict adherent of Sabermetrics, but I assumed that he was diverse enough in the philosophies to realize that, unless you put all your eggs in the “Rah rah batting average” and “Strikeouts indicate baseball incompetence” baskets, Adam Dunn is easily one of the top-ten most productive hitters in all of baseball — maybe top five.


I heard that too, but I interpreted the comment not as Kurkjian's opinion of Dunn but how he sees the trade market's opinion of him. Right or wrong, the teams looking to trade for a big bat don't see Dunn as the solution, so in that context, he's not a "big bat." Of course, it only takes one.

westofyou
07-11-2008, 02:01 PM
My jaw dropped because I thought Tim was a numbers guy.

I never thought of him as a numbers guy, only when he uses them to make his common historical comparisons, he's not what I'd call a sabermatician, he's more a writer than an analyst.

dougdirt
07-11-2008, 02:05 PM
The Reds are currently 44-49 and 21st in MLB in runs scored. They need to ADD to Dunn's production, not just replace it.

Now I'm not opposed to letting Dunn go, but I think it has been shown that replacing him, let alone bettering his production is a tall order.

While I agree that scoring more runs is needed, I believe improvements made by Bruce, Votto, Encarnacion and perhaps Phillips will help offset that some as well. I am not opposed to bringing Dunn back (although if he won't play first base or play for 7 million in LF.... best of luck elsewhere), but I don't think him leaving is going to kill this team's offense as long as if doesn't mean Corey Patterson gets a starting gig or something.

edabbs44
07-11-2008, 02:09 PM
Probably to the same extent that you could classify Derrek Lee's .304 batting average as luck dependent.

I was thinking it was in the same ballpark as how people define RBI as being lucky.

red-in-la
07-11-2008, 02:22 PM
Is it possible that his BABIP would come up but the other parts of his game would go down? Dunn's numbers are messed up simply because of what Chris Welch says everytime he goes to the plate. Dunn's swing is the longest in baseball....period. And he pulls off of everything which means he no longer has plate coverage.

He will almost certainly strike out over 100 times by the All-Star break, and as I have said before, if there are 5 tools, Dunn has ONLY one. His game, if you want to call it that, is the moon-shot. He and/or his agent, it seems to me, have decided to market him as a gate draw, as everyone wants to see how far a human being can actually hit a baseball.

Unfornately, the rules award on one stripe for the ball hit over the fence, no matter how far it actually travels.

Do the Reds pay 15-20 million a year for one tool?.....insane, unless that tool is winning 20 games (as a starting pitcher silly:D) a year.

I don't care what stats you use to frame it, Dunn is Dave Kingman II and unless somebody wakes him up and tells him to play BASEBALL again, he will finish his career as DK II. A real shame.

Strikes Out Looking
07-11-2008, 02:22 PM
I'm not pro-Dunn or Anti-Dunn, I'm Dunn tired and Dunn frustrated.

Part of me wants to see him with the Reds long term just to see him provide homers and rbis. But then part of me wants to see what the extra money and better defense in lf would bring the team in return with just an average lf who batted righthanded.

I wonder if Jocketty has a master plan or is just waiting for fate to decide what happens to the Reds LF?

red-in-la
07-11-2008, 02:24 PM
While I agree that scoring more runs is needed, I believe improvements made by Bruce, Votto, Encarnacion and perhaps Phillips will help offset that some as well. I am not opposed to bringing Dunn back (although if he won't play first base or play for 7 million in LF.... best of luck elsewhere), but I don't think him leaving is going to kill this team's offense as long as if doesn't mean Corey Patterson gets a starting gig or something.

I AGREE! Mark this one down somewhere! :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek:

Patrick Bateman
07-11-2008, 02:29 PM
Is it possible that his BABIP would come up but the other parts of his game would go down? Dunn's numbers are messed up simply because of what Chris Welch says everytime he goes to the plate. Dunn's swing is the longest in baseball....period. And he pulls off of everything which means he no longer has plate coverage.

He will almost certainly strike out over 100 times by the All-Star break, and as I have said before, if there are 5 tools, Dunn has ONLY one. His game, if you want to call it that, is the moon-shot. He and/or his agent, it seems to me, have decided to market him as a gate draw, as everyone wants to see how far a human being can actually hit a baseball.

Unfornately, the rules award on one stripe for the ball hit over the fence, no matter how far it actually travels.

Do the Reds pay 15-20 million a year for one tool?.....insane, unless that tool is winning 20 games (as a starting pitcher silly:D) a year.

I don't care what stats you use to frame it, Dunn is Dave Kingman II and unless somebody wakes him up and tells him to play BASEBALL again, he will finish his career as DK II. A real shame.

This has got to be the biggest bait in Redszone history.

BRM
07-11-2008, 02:30 PM
The Dave Kingman bait again. Here we go.

jojo
07-11-2008, 02:33 PM
I was thinking it was in the same ballpark as how people define RBI as being lucky.

It's a little different though because while GIDP is "opportunity dependent" it's also batted ball tendency-dependent. One reason why the lumbering Dunn doesn't GIDP a ton compared to a guy like Phillips (GIDP%=1.6 vs Phillips' GIDP%=3.5) is that Dunn hits more FBs (46.6%) than GBs (33.7%) on average for his career. On the other hand, Brandon Phillips has almost the opposite batted ball tendencies (FB%=34.8; GB%=46.5). So it's more than just opportunity.....

Dunn's FB tendencies is one reason why the shift isn't as effective against him as one might think it could be as well.

dougdirt
07-11-2008, 02:33 PM
The Dave Kingman bait again. Here we go.

Dave Kingman bait? What are we trying to catch? Doesn't seem like you would get many bites, Kingman is a big dude.

red-in-la
07-11-2008, 02:36 PM
The Dave Kingman bait again. Here we go.

I apologize to DK for the comparisons. Come up with another one if you can. If Kingman walked more, it appears to me that their numbers would be very similar. Of course, when DK played, there wasn't OPS of BABIP.

He did manage to have a career without them.:D

westofyou
07-11-2008, 02:37 PM
Dave Kingman gets lots of play in a Dunn thread, but let's consider how many guys K'd over 100 times in the Kingman era and then the Dunn era.

Let's just use the last 8 years and 75-83



ALL LEAGUES & TEAMS
2000-2008
ALL POSITIONS
STRIKEOUTS >= 100


T1 Alex Rodriguez 8
T1 Andruw Jones 8
T1 Pat Burrell 8
T1 Carlos Delgado 8
T1 Bobby Abreu 8
T6 Richie Sexson 7
T6 Derrek Lee 7
T6 Jim Edmonds 7
T6 Alfonso Soriano 7
T6 Jim Thome 7
T6 Mike Cameron 7
T6 Geoff Jenkins 7
T13 Troy Glaus 6
T13 Torii Hunter 6
T13 Brad Wilkerson 6
T13 Preston Wilson 6
T13 Jeromy Burnitz 6
T13 Jacque Jones 6
T13 Jose Cruz Jr. 6
T13 Sammy Sosa 6
T13 Lance Berkman 6
T13 Adam Dunn 6
T23 Jermaine Dye 5
T23 Jeff Bagwell 5
T23 Mark Teixeira 5
T23 Jason LaRue 5
T23 Corey Koskie 5
T23 Manny Ramirez 5
T23 Shawn Green 5


ALL LEAGUES & TEAMS
1975-1983
ALL POSITIONS
STRIKEOUTS >= 100


T1 Mike Schmidt 8
T1 Reggie Jackson 8
T1 Greg Luzinski 8
4 Dave Kingman 7
5 Omar Moreno 6
T6 Jim Rice 5
T6 George Foster 5
T6 Gorman Thomas 5
T9 Tony Armas 4
T9 Lee May 4
T9 Dale Murphy 4
T9 Ron LeFlore 4
T9 Bobby Bonds 4
T14 Rick Monday 3
T14 Lance Parrish 3
T14 Claudell Washington 3
T14 Doug Rader 3
T14 Tony Perez 3
T14 Willie Horton 3
T14 Willie Stargell 3
T14 Gene Tenace 3
T22 Dwight Evans 2
T22 Ken Singleton 2
T22 Andre Dawson 2
T22 Roy Smalley 2
T22 Butch Hobson 2
T22 Mookie Wilson 2
T22 Gary Alexander 2
T22 George Scott 2
T22 Dwayne Murphy 2
T22 Larry Parrish 2
T22 Jason Thompson 2
T22 Dave Hostetler 2
T22 Bobby Grich 2
T22 Jerry Martin 2
T22 Jeff Burroughs 2
T22 Dave Parker 2
T22 Gary Gaetti 2
T22 Chili Davis 2

Guys K more these days.

Big Klu
07-11-2008, 02:42 PM
Guys K more these days.

Could you give us the numbers over the same time periods for 150+ K's?

RedsManRick
07-11-2008, 02:43 PM
Do the Reds pay 15-20 million a year for one tool?.....insane, unless that tool is winning 20 games (as a starting pitcher silly:D) a year.

I'll leave the rest for somebody else, but I just wanted to point out that if team's paid for tools, DeWayne Wise would be making millions and Alex Ochoa would be able to buy a small island. Teams pay for production, something which Adam Dunn provides more of than any other Red.

dougdirt
07-11-2008, 02:44 PM
I'll leave the rest for somebody else, but I just wanted to point out that if team's paid for tools, DeWayne Wise would be making millions and Alex Ochoa would be able to buy a small island. Teams pay for production, something which Adam Dunn provides more of than any other Red.

True and false. Adam Dunn isn't the most productive player on the Reds. He may be the most productive hitter, but not the most productive player.

BRM
07-11-2008, 02:48 PM
Teams pay for production, something which Adam Dunn provides more of than any other Red.

No more than Kingman provided, apparently.

BRM
07-11-2008, 02:51 PM
I apologize to DK for the comparisons. Come up with another one if you can. If Kingman walked more, it appears to me that their numbers would be very similar. Of course, when DK played, there wasn't OPS of BABIP.


Similar batters through age 27, per Baseball Reference.

Darryl Strawberry
Jose Canseco
Reggie Jackson
Harmon Killebrew
Rocky Colavito
Roger Maris
Tom Brunansky
Barry Bonds
Troy Glaus
Jeff Burroughs

RedsManRick
07-11-2008, 02:53 PM
True and false. Adam Dunn isn't the most productive player on the Reds. He may be the most productive hitter, but not the most productive player.

Fair enough. The point stands. The method of production is less important than the amount of production itself. A run created by a HR and two strikeouts is no less valuable than one created by a double, a single, and a sacrifice bunt.

BRM
07-11-2008, 02:54 PM
You're spouting gibberish RMR.

Red Heeler
07-11-2008, 03:01 PM
While I agree that scoring more runs is needed, I believe improvements made by Bruce, Votto, Encarnacion and perhaps Phillips will help offset that some as well. I am not opposed to bringing Dunn back (although if he won't play first base or play for 7 million in LF.... best of luck elsewhere), but I don't think him leaving is going to kill this team's offense as long as if doesn't mean Corey Patterson gets a starting gig or something.

Assuming that Griffey won't be back next year, the Reds have black holes to fill at CF and C. Hairston may not be here and is highly unlikely to stay away from a pumpkin turn if he is. Keppinger might be able to keep SS from being an offensive vaccuum, but he gives away a lot of hits on defense due to lack of range.

Get those three positions around league average AND add improvements from Votto and Bruce AND keep Dunn around, then you have an offense.

flyer85
07-11-2008, 03:05 PM
Similar batters through age 27, per Baseball Reference.

Darryl Strawberry
Jose Canseco
Reggie Jackson
Harmon Killebrew
Rocky Colavito
Roger Maris
Tom Brunansky
Barry Bonds
Troy Glaus
Jeff Burroughsmy own subjective similar batters are Kingman and Deer ... and it is much more accurate. :D

westofyou
07-11-2008, 03:09 PM
Could you give us the numbers over the same time periods for 150+ K's?


T1 Richie Sexson 5
T1 Adam Dunn 5
T3 Jim Thome 3
T3 Mike Cameron 3
T3 Jose Hernandez 3
T3 Brad Wilkerson 3
T3 Pat Burrell 3
T8 Ryan Howard 2
T8 Sammy Sosa 2
T8 Alfonso Soriano 2
T8 Troy Glaus 2
T8 Grady Sizemore 2
T8 Jim Edmonds 2
T14 Craig Wilson 1
T14 Geoff Jenkins 1
T14 Jhonny Peralta 1
T14 Preston Wilson 1
T14 Jorge Posada 1
T14 Brandon Inge 1
T14 Derrek Lee 1
T14 Jason Bay 1
T14 Russell Branyan 1
T14 Jeromy Burnitz 1
T14 Corey Patterson 1
T14 Ben Grieve 1
T14 Jack Cust 1
T14 Nick Swisher 1
T14 Mo Vaughn 1
T14 Curtis Granderson 1
T14 Dan Uggla 1
T14 Bill Hall 1
T14 B.J. Upton 1
T14 Lee Stevens 1
T14 Mark Bellhorn 1


ALL LEAGUES & TEAMS
1975-1983
ALL POSITIONS
STRIKEOUTS >= 150


T1 Gorman Thomas 2
T1 Dave Kingman 2
T3 Jeff Burroughs 1
T3 Mike Schmidt 1
T3 Ron Kittle 1
T3 Greg Luzinski 1
T3 Butch Hobson 1
T3 Gary Alexander 1
T3 Reggie Jackson 1

Johnny Footstool
07-11-2008, 04:21 PM
Burrell and Glaus seem to be the best comps, IMO.

Big Klu
07-11-2008, 04:33 PM
Mark Bellhorn struck out 150 times in a season?! How did he even get 150 AB's?! :eek:

Highlifeman21
07-11-2008, 04:40 PM
True and false. Adam Dunn isn't the most productive player on the Reds. He may be the most productive hitter, but not the most productive player.

K, I'll bite....

If Adam Dunn isn't the Reds' most productive player, then please name said unicorn.

Your predictable answer will probably be Brandon Phillips. Any other answer will be enough comedy to get me through the weekend...

Highlifeman21
07-11-2008, 04:49 PM
Burrell and Glaus seem to be the best comps, IMO.

Agreed on Burrell.

He's the RHB version of Adam Dunn.

IMO, Dunn is more productive than Glaus.

pahster
07-11-2008, 04:58 PM
Mark Bellhorn struck out 150 times in a season?! How did he even get 150 AB's?! :eek:

177 Ks. He got that many PA by putting together a season with the following line for the 2004 Red Sox: .264/.373/.444

He had 144 Ks (in many fewer PA) in 2002 for the Cubs when he had an even better year: .258/.374/.512

blumj
07-11-2008, 05:01 PM
Mark Bellhorn struck out 150 times in a season?! How did he even get 150 AB's?! :eek:
He hit .264/.373/.444 in 620 PAs, with 17 HRs, 37 2Bs, 93 Rs, 88 BBs, 82 RBI, and 177 Ks, batting 2nd for the 2004 World Champion Boston Red Sox. Oh, and with 4.15 P/PA and only 8 GIDP, and 3 HUGE postseason HRs.

REDREAD
07-11-2008, 05:03 PM
When it comes to Dunn's offense, I often wonder how he'd be though of differently if he hit .280/.380/.520 instead of .240/.380/.520. I find it fascinating that a change in the composition of his stats which would not have a significant affect on his overall level of production .

Actually, if Dunn hit for a higher average and everything else stayed the same, he'd have more RBIs and possibly more runs scored. .040 of average is 24 more hits over the course of a season (assuming 600 plate appearances), and not all of them would be singles.. He would be more productive that way, especially given the composition of this roster.


I would love to see Dunn take less 3rd pitch strikes. If he learned how to protect the plate on those borderline pitches with two strikes, he would be a better player. Not that he stinks or anything, but that's something he should work on.. Also, if he could start hitting the ball to the opposite field so that teams would stop putting the shift on, that would also help him.. Again, not saying he stinks, but those would help a lot.

Big Klu
07-11-2008, 05:04 PM
177 Ks. He got that many PA by putting together a season with the following line for the 2004 Red Sox: .264/.373/.444

He had 144 Ks (in many fewer PA) in 2002 for the Cubs when he had an even better year: .258/.374/.512

I knew he had a couple of good seasons with the Cubs and Red Sox (long before he became a Red last year), as well as a few bad ones. It was my attempt at being facetious.

blumj
07-11-2008, 05:05 PM
Agreed on Burrell.

He's the RHB version of Adam Dunn.

IMO, Dunn is more productive than Glaus.
Glaus plays a pretty good 3B, though. Of course, he also has an injury history and has been linked to PED use. Jason Giambi also seems like a similar type of offensive player, post-"apology", anyway.

blumj
07-11-2008, 05:09 PM
I knew he had a couple of good seasons with the Cubs and Red Sox (long before he became a Red last year), as well as a few bad ones. It was my attempt at being facetious.

Sorry, I think I might still be a little defensive about Mark Bellhorn when I'm on my deathbed.

dougdirt
07-11-2008, 05:09 PM
Actually, if Dunn hit for a higher average and everything else stayed the same, he'd have more RBIs and possibly more runs scored. .040 of average is 24 more hits over the course of a season (assuming 600 plate appearances), and not all of them would be singles.. He would be more productive that way, especially given the composition of this roster.

If Dunn hit .280 but everything else stayed the same numbers wise (OBP/SLG) then he would be losing extra base hits along the way.

Raisor
07-11-2008, 05:26 PM
Actually, if Dunn hit for a higher average and everything else stayed the same, he'd have more RBIs and possibly more runs scored.

Except that in the past, that hasn't been the case.

04 266/388/569 46-102, 105 Runs
07 264/386/554 40-106, 101 Runs

avg 265/387/562 43-104, 103 Runs

05 247/387/540 40-101, 107
08 226/382/523 43-96, 82 runs (Projected)

avg 237/385/532 42-99, 95

30 points of BA, and there's 1 more HR and 5 more RBI.

nate
07-11-2008, 05:28 PM
The best way to get Dunn more RBIs and basehits is to clone him and bat him both in front of himself (so there's men on base when he comes up) and after him (so the pitchers are more likely to pitch to him).

RedsManRick
07-11-2008, 05:32 PM
Actually, if Dunn hit for a higher average and everything else stayed the same, he'd have more RBIs and possibly more runs scored. .040 of average is 24 more hits over the course of a season (assuming 600 plate appearances), and not all of them would be singles.. He would be more productive that way, especially given the composition of this roster.

But because his slugging has not changed, he'd be hitting fewer HR. SLG correlates most strongly to RBI and his SLG hasn't change. OBP correlates most strongly to Runs and his OBP hasn't changed either. He may get a few more RBI, but I bet it's a single digit number over the course of the season.

The real trick to get Dunn to score more runs is to start batting him ahead of our other sluggers instead of behind them and the trick to driving up his RBI is to stop batting him behind a low OBP guy....



I would love to see Dunn take less 3rd pitch strikes. If he learned how to protect the plate on those borderline pitches with two strikes, he would be a better player. Not that he stinks or anything, but that's something he should work on.. Also, if he could start hitting the ball to the opposite field so that teams would stop putting the shift on, that would also help him.. Again, not saying he stinks, but those would help a lot.

I agree, Dunn would probably benefit from cutting down his swing with two strikes. But it's important for us to remember than Dunn is among the worst in baseball at making contact when he swings. He's really pretty bad at it. Generally speaking, if Dunn is inclined not to swing, he's probably better off not swinging. Obviously watching strike three is bad. But if by trying to swing at more would-be strike threes he ends up swinging at more would-be balls, that's a problem. We have to ask why he's watching those pitches in the first place.

reds44
07-11-2008, 05:33 PM
Certainly Winn isn't THE answer but he's a potential part of a solution.
I'd love for the Reds to get their hands on Fred Lewis or David DeJesus.

Mario-Rijo
07-11-2008, 05:52 PM
I agree, Dunn would probably benefit from cutting down his swing with two strikes. But it's important for us to remember than Dunn is among the worst in baseball at making contact when he swings. He's really pretty bad at it. Generally speaking, if Dunn is inclined not to swing, he's probably better off not swinging. Obviously watching strike three is bad. But if by trying to swing at more would-be strike threes he ends up swinging at more would-be balls, that's a problem. We have to ask why he's watching those pitches in the first place.

I would imagine that it's his approach, he's up there trying to work a walk. Otherwise there's no real excuse for taking borderline pitches with 2 strikes.

Reds1
07-11-2008, 05:56 PM
For what it's worth the sporting news listed like top 7-8 trades and menioned Dunn will be available again, but this year some one would bite!

Doesn't mean anything, but I think we might see some action here, but it won't be a blockbuster, but we should get a decent player or let him go and get two more 1st round picks. That is if we can't sign him to a friendly contract.

REDREAD
07-11-2008, 06:12 PM
If Dunn hit .280 but everything else stayed the same numbers wise (OBP/SLG) then he would be losing extra base hits along the way.

That's true.. I was looking at OBP staying constant and overlooked the slugging staying constant too. But the effect is pretty minimal compared to the gain you get by increasing BA.

Example, Dunn's 2006 year was a .234 BA (close the hypotethical .240 posted).. 561 AB 131 hits, 24 dbls, 0 triples, 40 HR = .490 slugging, 275 total bases

To get a .280 average, 36 walks would turn into hits. (keeping OBP constant)
Thus, he now has 599 AB, which multiplied by a .490 slugging means 293.5 total bases. I'm going to round up to 294, since that's convention.

So the real "power loss" is that he has 36 additional hits, but only addtional 19 total bases. What does that really mean.. only a loss of 17 "slugs".. 5 HR turn into singles (-15) and two doubles turns into a singles (-2).. Or 17 doubles turn into singles.. many combinations are possible... I'd gladly take that small loss in power in order to get 36 additional hits out of Dunn..

REDREAD
07-11-2008, 06:18 PM
Except that in the past, that hasn't been the case.

04 266/388/569 46-102, 105 Runs
07 264/386/554 40-106, 101 Runs

avg 265/387/562 43-104, 103 Runs

05 247/387/540 40-101, 107
08 226/382/523 43-96, 82 runs (Projected)

avg 237/385/532 42-99, 95

30 points of BA, and there's 1 more HR and 5 more RBI.


I said possibly more runs because I didn't pay attention and notice slugging was constant. I was wrong on that, runs scored wouldn't likely change.

However, RBI would very likely increase, simply because singles drive in more runs than walks. Hitting for more total bases means more RBI.
You can't compare different years because Dunn had different RBI opportunities each year.

Raisor
07-11-2008, 06:23 PM
I said possibly more runs because I didn't pay attention and notice slugging was constant. I was wrong on that, runs scored wouldn't likely change.

However, RBI would very likely increase, simply because singles drive in more runs than walks. Hitting for more total bases means more RBI.
You can't compare different years because Dunn had different RBI opportunities each year.


Except these are real world examples of your hypothetical.

REDREAD
07-11-2008, 06:27 PM
But because his slugging has not changed, he'd be hitting fewer HR. SLG correlates most strongly to RBI and his SLG hasn't change. OBP correlates most strongly to Runs and his OBP hasn't changed either. He may get a few more RBI, but I bet it's a single digit number over the course of the season.

Yeah, I goofed a little bit, but see follow up post..
The additional singles would probably more than offset the conversion of 5 HR into singles.. He'd gain 36 hits in the 2006 example of rasing his BA to 280 while keeping OBP and SLG constant (see other post for details). I guess we'd have to figure out the percentage of time Dunn comes to plate where a single would drive in a run to find out for sure..








The real trick to get Dunn to score more runs is to start batting him ahead of our other sluggers instead of behind them and the trick to driving up his RBI is to stop batting him behind a low OBP guy....


Agreed, but this team doesn't have a true RBI guy. That's part of the problem. We can keep Dunn, but we need a high BA guy to help drive in the guys that are getting walks..





I agree, Dunn would probably benefit from cutting down his swing with two strikes. But it's important for us to remember than Dunn is among the worst in baseball at making contact when he swings. He's really pretty bad at it. Generally speaking, if Dunn is inclined not to swing, he's probably better off not swinging. Obviously watching strike three is bad. But if by trying to swing at more would-be strike threes he ends up swinging at more would-be balls, that's a problem. We have to ask why he's watching those pitches in the first place.


I don't know what Dunn is thinking, but the book on him with runners on base seems to be to just nibble at the corners. You either strike him out or walk him most of the time. If you walk him, usually the pitcher is rewarded with a weaker hitter coming up. It's pretty amazing that in that since 2004, Dunn finishes the year with about 20 more hits than BB. It would be interesting to know how many of those BB come with runners on base. I would guess a lot of them, but that is just a guess of course.

REDREAD
07-11-2008, 06:33 PM
Except these are real world examples of your hypothetical.

No, because you can't repeat an entire season with a different Dunn batting average. The situations have changed.

Dunn seems to get a lot of walks with runners on base (RBI opportunities). It all depends on how his additional 36 hits are distributed on how the RBIs are affected.

I just saw that Dunn's carrer stats with runners in scoring position is a .222 Batting average, but a .412 OBP. He's had 202 hits and a whopping 361 BB with runners in scoring position. 72 of those BB were intentional. That's not saying Dunn is "choking", but that's saying he's getting a ton of his walks in RBI situations, which lends weight to my theory that the pitchers are nibbling and not really caring if they walk Dunn with runners in scoring position.

Another interesting fact is that Dunn's BA with bases loaded jumps to 260 and his OBP decreases to 337.. Because the pitchers can't walk him then, they apparently attack him.

RedsManRick
07-11-2008, 06:47 PM
I would imagine that it's his approach, he's up there trying to work a walk. Otherwise there's no real excuse for taking borderline pitches with 2 strikes.

I disagree but I think you've highlighted the precise difference in perception between those who tend to like Dunn and those who tend not to.

I do not think Dunn is looking to walk. Dunn is firstly looking to not make an out, and secondly looking to get as many bases as possible in the process. But avoiding outs is priority #1. Let's look at his skill set.

- Superb power
- Very good strike zone judgment
- Very poor contact ability

It's fair to say, that Dunn is aware of his strengths and weaknesses. Let's say there's a pitch on the way in a 2-2 count and Dunn deems that there's a 50% chance it's a strike. Some things to consider:

- Dunn makes contact on 80% of the balls he swings at in the strike zone
- Dunn makes contact on 40% of the balls he swings at out of the strike zone
- ~70% of balls in play become outs

So, let's be generous and apply those percentages to this pitch. I say generous because we have to assume that Dunn would prefer to hit a pitch he likes than to walk. I think it would be absurd to assert otherwise. So, this situation is based on the presumption that he doesn't like the pitch. Given that, he's probably not as likely to make contact as he normally would, but let's ignore that for now. Below is an outcome tree, if you will. The final outcome percentages are italicized and calculated by multiplying the percents up the chain. The contact percents are from FanGraphs.



SWING
• Strike 50%
- Contact 80%
- Hit 30%: 12% chance
- Out 70%: 28% chance
- Miss 20%
- Out 100%: 20% chance

• Ball 50%
- Contact 40%
- Hit 30%: 6% chance
- Out 70%: 14% chance
- Miss 60%
- Out 100%: 15% chance

Total
82% chance of making an out.
18% chance of getting on base.
0% chance of getting another pitch.



TAKE
• Strike 50%
- Called Strike 100%
- Out 100%: 50% chance
• Ball 50%
- Called Ball 100%
- Ball and Another Pitch: 50% chance

Total
50% chance of making an out.
0% chance of getting on base.
50% chance of getting another pitch.

So, given those odds, do you still want him swinging? Would you change those assumptions? I think we tend to overestimate the chances that something good will happen if he swings at a 2 strike pitch that he's not normally comfortable with.

REDREAD
07-11-2008, 07:30 PM
ISWING

Total
82% chance of making an out.
18% chance of getting on base.
0% chance of getting another pitch.



I don't think this is absolute. There's also a chance he could foul off the pitch and get another pitch. Maybe Dunn doesn't have that skill, and I don't know how to estimate it, but it's another favorable outcome of swinging. Hypothetically, he might feel he has a 33% chance to foul off the pitch and stay alive. That tips the analysis to favor swinging..

The other point is that walking with men on base isn't necessarily a favorable outcome if the runs never score. Sure, it gets the pitcher to throw a few more pitches. Sure, it's not Dunn's fault if he walks.

This is why I don't think it's wise to give Dunn a multiyear deal at 18 milliion/year. (Obviously, the length of a contract is also a risk.)Even if he's used properly, that's a boatload of money to give to a table setter that is a defensive liablity. It's even worse to spend that much money and then bat Dunn 5th or 6th (as the Red tend to do), because he will not drive in runs from that slot.. He will always be pitched around..

The team is poorly constructed to drive in runs. Not saying that it's Dunn's fault.. it isn't, but the lineup composition needs to change. I don't have the answers, but Walt has plenty of positions available for upgrade.

jojo
07-11-2008, 07:32 PM
I'd love for the Reds to get their hands on Fred Lewis or David DeJesus.

I had thought about both of those guys too.

I've been a fan of DeJesus for a while as I think he tends to be under appreciated but the Royals extended him economically through 2011 and I'm not sure they'd entertain a swap or how painful one might be if they did.

Lewis is under control for basically 5 more years at bargain basement rates. He has had some real ugly platoon splits but also looks to be a snappy defender. I just didn't think Sabean would punt on him very easily while Winn's age and contract made him more obtainable. With Sabean, though. who knows?

RedsManRick
07-11-2008, 08:19 PM
I don't think this is absolute. There's also a chance he could foul off the pitch and get another pitch. Maybe Dunn doesn't have that skill, and I don't know how to estimate it, but it's another favorable outcome of swinging. Hypothetically, he might feel he has a 33% chance to foul off the pitch and stay alive. That tips the analysis to favor swinging.

I meant to explicitly state I was ignoring foul balls due to a lack of data. I agree they increase the non-out outcome percentage. But your math is a bit off because they only come out of the times he makes contact and not all fouls go out of play. You've suggest he has a 33% chance of fouling the ball off, but his contact % depends on where the ball actually is.

So I made some assumptions and reran the numbers:
- 30% of swings result in foul balls
- 30% of foul balls stay in play and become outs

The new math results in the follow outcomes for the SWING choice:

Total
74.6% chance of making an out.
12.6% chance of getting on base (hit).
12.6% chance of getting another pitch (foul out of play).

So now it's a 75% chance of making an out when swinging versus a 50% chance of making an out when taking. If your primary goal is avoiding outs and you have Dunn's skill set, you're better off taking your chances watching the pitch.



The other point is that walking with men on base isn't necessarily a favorable outcome if the runs never score. Sure, it gets the pitcher to throw a few more pitches. Sure, it's not Dunn's fault if he walks.

Getting another pitch is never a bad thing. At worse, it results from a foul ball, the count stays the same, and nothing changes. At best, it results from a ball, and the count moves favorably in Dunn's direction. If a walk results in a lower chance for the Reds to score that inning, it's because of a horrific lineup construction that places Dunn ahead of really craptastic hitters. Walking is good and hitters should not try to avoid walking simply because of the hitter behind them -- trying to avoid a walk is a recipe for making an out.



This is why I don't think it's wise to give Dunn a multiyear deal at 18 milliion/year. (Obviously, the length of a contract is also a risk.)Even if he's used properly, that's a boatload of money to give to a table setter that is a defensive liablity. It's even worse to spend that much money and then bat Dunn 5th or 6th (as the Red tend to do), because he will not drive in runs from that slot.. He will always be pitched around.

That's the thing, he's both. Put him batting 3rd or 4th ahead of guys like Bruce and Phillips and he either drives the runs in himself OR sets an even better table. You take advantage of both his skills. Bat him behind those guys and you negate both by allow pitchers to turn him in to a table setter for guys behind him who aren't that great at driving him in.

That said, maybe we undervalue the skill of table setting relative to the skill of table clearing. On balance, he's an extremely good run producer. We shouldn't use the term "table setter" as a pejorative. A lineup full of true "table setters" would be an above average offense.


The team is poorly constructed to drive in runs. Not saying that it's Dunn's fault.. it isn't, but the lineup composition needs to change. I don't have the answers, but Walt has plenty of positions available for upgrade.

I can't disagree here. However, the team as constructed would score more runs if the players it had were used properly, namely putting the OBP (Dunn, Votto) ahead of the SLG (Phillips, Bruce?).

RedsManRick
07-11-2008, 09:35 PM
Not sure if anybody cares, but I just spent the last 90 minutes creating a spreadsheet calculator that will calculate the three possible outcomes (out, hit, another pitch) based on what the batter does and a set of assumptions which can be input.

Here's a quick image and the file is posted below.

http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3283/2660142246_31be942980.jpg?v=0

A good v2.0 would incorporate the pitch count and just make it a "should I swing" calculator?

Highlifeman21
07-12-2008, 09:17 AM
True and false. Adam Dunn isn't the most productive player on the Reds. He may be the most productive hitter, but not the most productive player.

Haven't seen an answer from you yet as to which Red is the most productive player.

Still curious.

RedlegJake
07-12-2008, 10:06 AM
I had thought about both of those guys too.

I've been a fan of DeJesus for a while as I think he tends to be under appreciated but the Royals extended him economically through 2011 and I'm not sure they'd entertain a swap or how painful one might be if they did.

Lewis is under control for basically 5 more years at bargain basement rates. He has had some real ugly platoon splits but also looks to be a snappy defender. I just didn't think Sabean would punt on him very easily while Winn's age and contract made him more obtainable. With Sabean, though. who knows?

I think the Royals would listen to trade proposals for DeJesus and that he could be had for a reasonable transaction. They'd likely be most interested in a package of good prospects.

jojo
07-12-2008, 11:07 AM
I think the Royals would listen to trade proposals for DeJesus and that he could be had for a reasonable transaction. They'd likely be most interested in a package of good prospects.

I would be all over Dejesus if he was available but while I don't have the local insight that you do, from the outside looking in, I'd be surprised if they'd let him go easily.

Concerning prospects, I don't know that the Reds system would interest them. Outside of Homer (whose star is falling), I don't see a ton of trade value in the Reds system right now-at least for an economical above average established major leaguer. The guys that are close are either back end of the rotation arms or relievers and the position players are mostly either high reward but extremely high risk (i.e. Stubbs/Francisco) or low ceiling guys that may become something like a regular/platoon player at a non-premium position. The interesting arms in their system are worth dreaming about but once again, there's a long way to the top if you want to rock and roll as a pitching prospect. Frazier is probably the most desirable fellow but he's probably not someone that KC would covet.

That leaves younger guys on theReds 25 man roster and I'd rather add to them significantly than to trade laterally for improvements of more moderate magnitude.

Anyway, those are my thoughts and some might scream about those related to the Reds farm.

Highlifeman21
07-12-2008, 01:10 PM
Not sure if anybody cares, but I just spent the last 90 minutes creating a spreadsheet calculator that will calculate the three possible outcomes (out, hit, another pitch) based on what the batter does and a set of assumptions which can be input.

Here's a quick image and the file is posted below.

http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3283/2660142246_31be942980.jpg?v=0

A good v2.0 would incorporate the pitch count and just make it a "should I swing" calculator?

Great stuff RMR.

:thumbup:

dougdirt
07-12-2008, 01:14 PM
Haven't seen an answer from you yet as to which Red is the most productive player.

Still curious.

Sorry, I must have missed where it was asked. Brandon Phillips for sure. Potentially Joey Votto. He is at the very least very close behind Dunn. Edinson Volquez is probably ahead of him too.

Highlifeman21
07-12-2008, 01:23 PM
Sorry, I must have missed where it was asked. Brandon Phillips for sure. Potentially Joey Votto. He is at the very least very close behind Dunn. Edinson Volquez is probably ahead of him too.

What are you using as a metric to define "most productive player"?

Phillips is obviously better defensively than Dunn, but even his defense doesn't close the offensive gap between him and Dunn.

I agree that Votto has potential, but he needs to seriously improve his defensive fundamentals (particularly tossing to the pitcher covering 1B), and maintain his offensive production. That being said, I don't think he'll ever come close to matching Dunn's offensive production.

As for Volquez, he's had a solid 1st half, but let's see what he does in the 2nd half, and then let's see if he can do it in consecutive years.

dougdirt
07-12-2008, 01:32 PM
What are you using as a metric to define "most productive player"?

Phillips is obviously better defensively than Dunn, but even his defense doesn't close the offensive gap between him and Dunn.

I agree that Votto has potential, but he needs to seriously improve his defensive fundamentals (particularly tossing to the pitcher covering 1B), and maintain his offensive production. That being said, I don't think he'll ever come close to matching Dunn's offensive production.

As for Volquez, he's had a solid 1st half, but let's see what he does in the 2nd half, and then let's see if he can do it in consecutive years.

Offense + defense = production. To me at least.

As for how I get the data, I am pretty much tipping the cap to Justin on this one.
http://jinaz-reds.blogspot.com/2008/06/tuesday-night-monitor.html
That data is about three weeks old, but no way has Dunn outperformed Votto or Phillips over that time to make up 6+ runs.

Now, I am not sure I fully have faith in Votto's defensive numbers because I think he is just merely average to slightly above average at first base. When he is making plays in the field, he is far above average. When he is making plays at the bag, he isn't quite average. Still, I think he and Dunn are quite close.

As for Volquez needing to do it for the 2nd half... then for consecutive years, that has very little to do with who has been the more productive player in 2008.

red-in-la
07-12-2008, 01:44 PM
Similar batters through age 27, per Baseball Reference.

Darryl Strawberry
Jose Canseco
Reggie Jackson
Harmon Killebrew
Rocky Colavito
Roger Maris
Tom Brunansky
Barry Bonds
Troy Glaus
Jeff Burroughs

Based on what? :duel:

I agree with Strawberry to a certain extent. But Strawberry was a superior defensive OF for most of his career. He also was fast for most of his career. :thumbdown

Ditto Canseco. How in the world do you comapre Dunn to a 40-40 guy? And almost a 50-50 guy? :thumbdown

Comapring Dunn to Killebrew is just wrong. :thumbdown

Roger Maris maybe...... :dunno: I never followed his career much and he was dunn before I was a serious fan.

Barry Bonds? eh...... :dunno: it is tough to compare Dunn to Barry again because Dunn is dead slow these days. Bonds didn't lose his speed until he was in his 30"s.

Troy Glaus, maybe.:dunno:

The others, eh...... :dunno:

Highlifeman21
07-12-2008, 01:44 PM
Offense + defense = production. To me at least.

As for how I get the data, I am pretty much tipping the cap to Justin on this one.
http://jinaz-reds.blogspot.com/2008/06/tuesday-night-monitor.html
That data is about three weeks old, but no way has Dunn outperformed Votto or Phillips over that time to make up 6+ runs.

Now, I am not sure I fully have faith in Votto's defensive numbers because I think he is just merely average to slightly above average at first base. When he is making plays in the field, he is far above average. When he is making plays at the bag, he isn't quite average. Still, I think he and Dunn are quite close.

As for Volquez needing to do it for the 2nd half... then for consecutive years, that has very little to do with who has been the more productive player in 2008.

Votto better than Phillips defensively? That right there invalidates anything going on in the Total Player Value breakdown. What's the word I'm looking for? Mularky, that's it. Dunn being 3rd on that list is Mularky. It's no surprise that Dunn's head and shoulders above everyone else offensively (again, I think Votto's numbers are off offensively as well), and I can't help but chuckle that Dunn's of course given a negative defensive value by Justin.

As for Volquez, he's had an impressive 1st half, but he started to hit the wall coming into the ASB, and I'm skeptical about the impact of a guy in the rotation vs. everyday position players. Volquez has tremendous value to the Reds, but given that he only gets the ball every 5th day, IMO that minimizes his impact.

dougdirt
07-12-2008, 01:55 PM
Votto better than Phillips defensively? That right there invalidates anything going on in the Total Player Value breakdown. What's the word I'm looking for? Mularky, that's it. Dunn being 3rd on that list is Mularky. It's no surprise that Dunn's head and shoulders above everyone else offensively (again, I think Votto's numbers are off offensively as well), and I can't help but chuckle that Dunn's of course given a negative defensive value by Justin.

As for Volquez, he's had an impressive 1st half, but he started to hit the wall coming into the ASB, and I'm skeptical about the impact of a guy in the rotation vs. everyday position players. Volquez has tremendous value to the Reds, but given that he only gets the ball every 5th day, IMO that minimizes his impact.
Well, one thing that makes first baseman difficult to judge is their ability on the bag. That is why you see Votto's numbers quite high. His range is outstanding over there. That is what is reflecting the high defensive numbers. It also why I suggested his overall value isn't as high as Justin suggest, but more likely a little above average. As for Dunn's defense being negative.... of course its negative. He isn't a good defender. He is better than he has been the past few seasons, but still a below average defender. He gets killed because of his lack of range out there.

red-in-la
07-12-2008, 01:58 PM
I don't think this is absolute. There's also a chance he could foul off the pitch and get another pitch. Maybe Dunn doesn't have that skill, and I don't know how to estimate it, but it's another favorable outcome of swinging. Hypothetically, he might feel he has a 33% chance to foul off the pitch and stay alive. That tips the analysis to favor swinging..

The other point is that walking with men on base isn't necessarily a favorable outcome if the runs never score. Sure, it gets the pitcher to throw a few more pitches. Sure, it's not Dunn's fault if he walks.

This is why I don't think it's wise to give Dunn a multiyear deal at 18 milliion/year. (Obviously, the length of a contract is also a risk.)Even if he's used properly, that's a boatload of money to give to a table setter that is a defensive liablity. It's even worse to spend that much money and then bat Dunn 5th or 6th (as the Red tend to do), because he will not drive in runs from that slot.. He will always be pitched around..

The team is poorly constructed to drive in runs. Not saying that it's Dunn's fault.. it isn't, but the lineup composition needs to change. I don't have the answers, but Walt has plenty of positions available for upgrade.

I agree. But also, isn't a part of the point, which no stat can handle, what does the hitter intend do do with that swing?

If you are Adam Dunn, and you swing reaches the green seats (:eek:) then what are your chances? Experience tells me that Dunn fails to swing because he cannot hit the ball very often......and even with two strikes, he still wants to hit the ball off a building across the street or in the river.

And he does NOT consider what his AB means to his team or the situation.

A guy who consistently hits enough HR's to consistently pass well beyond 120-130 RBI's, but struggles the last week of the season to reach 100, is not trying to drive in runs.

Dunn is one of those guys (as was Dave Kingman) who simply wants to hit a HR no matter what the game situation. To me, it IS the reason the Reds need to let him walk. It IS the reason the Reds offense is dysfunctional, but let me clarify that.

The last point is rampant throughout the Reds offense. I think the really young guys, like Votto haven't been infected yet......conversely, I think Bruce has already caught the disease big time from Dunn and JR, which is the main reason I would get rid of JR and Dunn ASAP.

I know (of course this is my opinion for those of you who are already thinking, "how do YOU know that?") Phillips now suffers from it big time.

In general, the entire Reds hitting compliment pulls-off the ball......and it is the olde 5 run HR syndrome.

redsmetz
07-12-2008, 06:49 PM
Going all Dr. Phil on us now? Aside from just conjecture, you're basing this analysis on what? I've never believed that Dunn goes up there only swinging for the fences and certainly that's not true of Junior. Now it may seem that way because much of the time it's the result, but I don't believe either of them goes up only to hit home runs.

And they've infected Bruce? Oh, good Lord! The kid's in a slump that many rookies have happen. When he was in the stratosphere, did not everyone say that he'd come back down to earth? There's hardly a ballplayer whose ever played the game who hasn't experienced the exact same thing.

We really need to avoid jumping to such extreme conclusions every time our young players go through the routine ups and downs of starting in the majors.

missionhockey21
07-12-2008, 07:03 PM
Dunn is one of those guys (as was Dave Kingman) who simply wants to hit a HR no matter what the game situation. To me, it IS the reason the Reds need to let him walk. It IS the reason the Reds offense is dysfunctional, but let me clarify that.

The last point is rampant throughout the Reds offense. I think the really young guys, like Votto haven't been infected yet......conversely, I think Bruce has already caught the disease big time from Dunn and JR, which is the main reason I would get rid of JR and Dunn ASAP.

I know (of course this is my opinion for those of you who are already thinking, "how do YOU know that?") Phillips now suffers from it big time.
1.) Dave Kingman name-dropping? Check.
2.) Blaming all offensive woes on Dunn? Check.
3.) Causing the rapid decay of the Reds sweet young fruit (prospects)? Check.

Is the point of all that to say something so ridiculous that no one can respond to it? I usually don't call out people, but I would honestly expect better from a poster on the ORG. You can dislike Dunn as a player and think the Reds could find a better solution, but to go into this kind of speculation against a player who has been productive, hard-working and loyal to the Reds is just not fair.

How was it that the Reds offense ranked first in 2005 in runs scored? They led the league in homers (by 28), and was only middle of the pack in batting average. They didn't have the highest OBP, but they certainly had the highest SLG%. Adam Dunn, at season's end, ended up with a bit better of a batting average, similar OBP, and a bit higher of a SLG% than what he currently has. In 2004, Adam Dunn had an even better season than 2005, his best season actually of his career; a .266 BA, 80 XBH, the most hits he has ever compiled in one season.... of course he also broke the record for strikeouts that year, earning him the dismay of many Reds fans. BUT the 2004 Reds had only the 10th best offense in the NL and scored 70 less runs. Surely Adam's Dunn 2004 season, with a near .960 OPS, would have boosted the morale of the team and caused them to rise up to his performance, no? Why then would the 2005 Reds have a better offense, even if Dunn's OPS dropped .30 points and Adam Dunn had 30 less total bases? Could their performance in fact be dependent on the team dynamic as a whole and not one or two players leading the way for all others?

Personally, I think what you (and others) are proposing is an easy way out. Is this year's offense amazing? No. Is Adam Dunn having the season of his life? No. But to make this connection is simply an easy way to think about the woes of the lineup. It's a lot easier to think that the impending FA and likely to depart Red Adam Dunn is the root of all evil, tainting all those whom are good and wholesome around (ie, players we expect to see next season) than to blame any sort of problems they are having on them or the coaching staff who actually gives them batting advice.

Phillips is not a cleanup hitter. He never was and that's not just hindsight talking as he does not have (nor has ever had) the desired skills to succeed in that role. What do you think has a greater impact on Phillips, batting 4th or seeing what Adam Dunn does? Brandon Phillips is a man, not a little impressionable boy. He see's his spot in the lineup and the expectations to go with it... to slug, to drive in runs and I doubt he is emulating Dunn consciously or sub-consciously at all. He and Dunn are in the same age group and Dunn would not have been an idol to him at all.

Bruce is a talented young player and hopefully the cornerstone to our lineup. But it's impossible for a rookie to struggle right? That just doesn't happen in baseball, especially a talented highly praised one at that (paging Alex Gordon.) Bruce is battling himself more than he is the temptation to swing like Dunn. He has had undue pressure put on him by various fans expecting him to play the role of a savior when only a couple of years ago he had mom washing his clothes and making sure he had a lunch for school.

This is the bottom line, Adam Dunn is just one player on the field. Could he be better? Sure. I wish all of our players in the lineup performed at a higher rate, we sure would have a few more wins if they did. But what Cincinnati and it's fans have done to paint him as the enemy is just ludicrous, this is the like the greatest political smear campaign. Dunn plays through pain. Dunn plays the season in most cases. He is never happy with what he has done and is often overly critical of his performance. Dunn hasn't gotten into trouble with the law and seems to have a happy family now. Dunn doesn't request trades or stir up controversy through the media. Dunn might not be able to turn himself into the .350 hitting gold glove leftfielder that some demand, but he has managed to cut down on his strikeouts and improve his defense. He even missed the World Baseball Classic to try to learn firstbase.

Should all Reds fans build a giant golden idol of him and worship at the feet? Nah. But for a guy who works hard, wants to win, wants to get better... it seems awful silly to blame him for all problems encountered. I am sure if you would ask most of the young players the Reds have brought up who has had the most positive experience on them, I am sure many would say Dunn.

Again, these are grown men, not impressionable boys trying to imitate others. If you would ask a Jay Bruce about what he might try to imitate about either Griffey or Dunn, I am sure his response would differ from your vision. Griffey is a determined man who has fought injury after injury, and is known for his storied career without the use of performance enhancers. Dunn is a man who works hard at his game, will play through pain and isn't shy to admit that he wasn't happy with his performance and seeks to improve on it.

I am a fan of Dunn obviously. I believe it would be in the best interests to explore an extension with him, but not at any cost. It disheartens me though that fans of my team can't appreciate a good guy who works hard and has put up numbers consistently unlike few Reds have in recent memory. Maybe he doesn't have the prettiest stat line and I can certainly understand some who think the Reds should pursue other options, but to characterize him as some sort of cancer like being, plaguing all those he touches, really does sadden me. I think that the players on our team, young or old, rely on their own instincts in situations and do not happen to look down at their wrists to ponder their WWADD bracelet (What Would Adam Dunn Do,) not only is that unfair to Dunn but also to the players who you believe have been tainted by him, I'd like to believe they are all a bit more mentally resilient than that.

redsmetz
07-12-2008, 07:30 PM
What Missionhockey21 wrote is probably one of the best things I've ever read on Redszone. Bravo.

jojo
07-12-2008, 07:31 PM
I agree. But also, isn't a part of the point, which no stat can handle, what does the hitter intend do do with that swing?

If you are Adam Dunn, and you swing reaches the green seats (:eek:) then what are your chances? Experience tells me that Dunn fails to swing because he cannot hit the ball very often......and even with two strikes, he still wants to hit the ball off a building across the street or in the river.

And he does NOT consider what his AB means to his team or the situation.

A guy who consistently hits enough HR's to consistently pass well beyond 120-130 RBI's, but struggles the last week of the season to reach 100, is not trying to drive in runs.

Dunn is one of those guys (as was Dave Kingman) who simply wants to hit a HR no matter what the game situation. To me, it IS the reason the Reds need to let him walk. It IS the reason the Reds offense is dysfunctional, but let me clarify that.

The last point is rampant throughout the Reds offense. I think the really young guys, like Votto haven't been infected yet......conversely, I think Bruce has already caught the disease big time from Dunn and JR, which is the main reason I would get rid of JR and Dunn ASAP.

I know (of course this is my opinion for those of you who are already thinking, "how do YOU know that?") Phillips now suffers from it big time.

In general, the entire Reds hitting compliment pulls-off the ball......and it is the olde 5 run HR syndrome.

I'm not really on board with most of this.....

TeamBoone
07-12-2008, 11:07 PM
I'm not really on board with most of this.....

Me either.

And, FWIW, I don't think Adam tries to swing for the fences... it just happens because he's a big guy with a lot of power. In fact, IMHO, most of his HRs appear to be quite effortless.

I also think you're way off base when you say he does NOT consider what his AB means to his team or the situation. I'm sure every guy on the team is aware of what his AB means to his team or the situation... and I doubt Adam is an exception. They are not stupid; they are professional BB players.

In additon, to say he is not trying to drive in runs is ridiculous. He's always trying to drive in runs... unfortunately, he's often up first in the inning with no ducks on the pond. It happens a bunch. And from what I've seen, he still manages to drive in a run every once in awhile.

BuckeyeRedleg
07-12-2008, 11:19 PM
Dunn is now 17th in all of baseball with a .924 OPS (7th among outfielders).

Dunn is also:

2nd in HR's (26), 1st among all outfielders
21st in RBI (58), 12th among all outfielders
28th in OBP (.382), 11th among all outfielders
21st in SLG (.542), 10th among all outfielders

32nd in RC (61.9), 14th among all outfielders
19th in RC/27 (7.26), 9th among all outfielders


Also #2 in pitches per plate appearance (4.34)

nate
07-12-2008, 11:21 PM
Adam Dunn is not the problem.

Jerry Hairston is not the solution.

red-in-la
07-13-2008, 12:14 AM
Geez :rolleyes:

Talk about overreacting!

If I had known you guys thought this way, I would never have thought the way I thought. How in the world can I come up with my own opinion before I clear it with resmetz......I wish I would have thought of that sooner and cleared it with redsmetz before I thought it.

I have never heard such a load from a fellow poster before.

jojo
07-13-2008, 12:36 AM
Adam Dunn is not the problem.

Jerry Hairston is not the solution.

:cool:

westofyou
07-13-2008, 11:59 AM
Some of the stuff in this thread is funny, a lot of it is unsubstantiated opinions based on nothing more than navel pondering and a lack of understanding of how the game works... but still funny in a sad sort of way.

red-in-la
07-13-2008, 02:14 PM
Some of the stuff in this thread is funny, a lot of it is unsubstantiated opinions based on nothing more than navel pondering and a lack of understanding of how the game works... but still funny in a sad sort of way.

I just get all squiggly inside when you talk down to us WOY. :D

WebScorpion
07-15-2008, 10:56 AM
What I'd really like to see before Adam Dunn wears the wishbone C for the last time is how he'd perform in a short post-season series. Dunn can carry a team when he's hot and I believe he'd perform well in the post-season pressure cooker. I'd really hate to see him become Mr. October Part II in another team's unifom. Of course, I do see the other side of the coin...we don't want to overpay for the privilege to see what he 'might' do. I really hope they can come to terms, even if it's only for a 3-year stint.

PS - I'm getting tired of reading about other posters. This is a forum forum for baseball discussion, not personality analysis.

REDREAD
07-15-2008, 11:32 AM
The new math results in the follow outcomes for the SWING choice:

Total
74.6% chance of making an out.
12.6% chance of getting on base (hit).
12.6% chance of getting another pitch (foul out of play).



I forget the previous discussion as it's been a few days, but how do you figure he's only got a 12% chance of getting a hit? His BA is much higher than .126.. It's a judgement call whether the fact that it's a borderline pitch would increase or decrease his chances. borderline is hittable as opposed to a pitch in the dirt, but obviously not as easy as a hanging curveball down the center of the plate.

If he has a 30% chance of fouling the pitch off, and 30% of fouls are outs, then that means he has a 21% of getting another pitch..

Shouldn't it be (based on our assumptions)

22%-24% chance of getting a hit (batting average)..
21% foul, another swing
Balance.. out..

Dunn should be thinking of what the ump has called strikes throughout the game. Some umps are more aggressive about calling the third strike, because they want hitters to swing the bat, or maybe the pitcher has a reputation or whatever. Likewise, sometimes, Dunn would be more inclined to get a ball called.

However, a big weakness in Dunn's game is taking the third strike on a 1-2 or 2-2 count. He is risking getting a called third strike for only a small advantage in the count. I agree that on 3-2, taking the close pitch has a greater potential benefit. But pitchers know Dunn will take the borderline pitch. On 1-2 or 2-2 (and even 3-2 if the bases are not loaded), they will nibble and go for the called third strike when men are on base. Just look at Dunn's career numbers with men on base. Low BA, lots of BB and K..
The pitchers don't care if they walk Dunn.

REDREAD
07-15-2008, 11:42 AM
Dunn is one of those guys (as was Dave Kingman) who simply wants to hit a HR no matter what the game situation. To me, it IS the reason the Reds need to let him walk. It IS the reason the Reds offense is dysfunctional, but let me clarify that.


I will modify that a little bit. I think Dunn comes to the plate looking for a ball he can smack hard OR get the walk. I truly think at times he goes up there trying to get a walk instead of a hit. Maybe it's because of the shift.

Someone else said that maybe we undervalue table setters. I agree they have value, but if you can get a Harriston guy for relatively cheap, why give Dunn a 100+ million dollar contract. Sure, Harriston will not have Dunn's power, but the big question is whether Dunn is going to be worth the enormous amount of $$ and years commited to keep him around.

Hypothethically, let's say it takes a 6 year contract to get Dunn signed. The team that signs Dunn will probably get the most production out of Dunn in the first 3 years. Not a guarantee, but that's a reasonable assumption.
The last 3 years may still be productive, but probably less productive.

When are the Reds going to be a contending? IMO, it's more likely to be in 2012 than it is from 2009-2011.. Another reason not to resign Dunn, but to reallocate those $$ elsewhere.

REDREAD
07-15-2008, 12:01 PM
.

I am a fan of Dunn obviously. I believe it would be in the best interests to explore an extension with him, but not at any cost. It disheartens me though that fans of my team can't appreciate a good guy who works hard and has put up numbers consistently unlike few Reds have in recent memory. .

Most folks on this board seem to think that in hindsight it was a huge mistake to give Jr the contract he was given. Jr only made around 12 million per year, and he was clearly a better player in 1999 than Dunn is today. Yet, we have to be careful here. Dunn will probably command at least 18 million/year for at least 6 years. Dunn is a much bigger risk than Jr was at time.

Another point is that people speculated that Jr refused to leave CF. Yet, Dunn insists on playing LF. There is no speculation involved. The team tried to move him to 1b, and he publicly expressed displeasure. It seemed that Dunn made that an issue on his last extension, because he stopped playing 1b..What do you do if you sign Dunn longterm and his defense gets even worse (age, maybe weight gain or injury).. You've got a guy that refuses to move out of LF.. IMO, this is a big negative. If Dunn was willing to move to 1b, I'd be a lot more inclined to extend him and then trade Votto for something.

pahster
07-15-2008, 12:32 PM
Someone else said that maybe we undervalue table setters. I agree they have value, but if you can get a Harriston guy for relatively cheap, why give Dunn a 100+ million dollar contract. Sure, Harriston will not have Dunn's power, but the big question is whether Dunn is going to be worth the enormous amount of $$ and years commited to keep him around.


Hairston is cheap because he's not very good.

RedsManRick
07-15-2008, 12:51 PM
I forget the previous discussion as it's been a few days, but how do you figure he's only got a 12% chance of getting a hit? His BA is much higher than .126.

In short, it's because batting average is based on the final outcome of the at bat, not the outcome of a specific pitch. It also starts at a 0-0 count. This was an analysis of an at bat where Dunn has 2 strikes. And in fact, so far this year, Dunn has put up a .144 batting average after getting 2 strikes on him. He's a .151 hitter for his career. But that's still the outcome of the at bat, not of the plate appearance, so my number is going to be a bit lower because the plate appearance outcomes which lead to another pitch give him another opportunity to end the plate appearance with a hit.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/bsplit.cgi?n1=dunnad01&year=2008

Please download my spreadsheet and tell me where my math (or assumptions) are wrong.

The real issue here is that once Dunn has two strikes, he doesn't have a very good chance of getting a hit. And if he chooses to swing at a ball outside the zone, it's even worse. I agree, I don't want Dunn taking 3rd strikes. But let's remember, if Dunn knew the pitch was going to be a strike, he'd be swinging. If you want him to start swinging at pitches which he thinks are balls, you're not likely going to improve his overall productivity. The best thing he can do is protect the plate and force the pitcher to throw another, hopefully worse, pitch.

jojo
08-01-2008, 10:53 PM
Dunn during the second half thus far:

PAs: 55;
BABIP: .294;

.340/.418/.745; OPS: 1.163;

Razor Shines
08-01-2008, 11:27 PM
1.) Dave Kingman name-dropping? Check.
2.) Blaming all offensive woes on Dunn? Check.
3.) Causing the rapid decay of the Reds sweet young fruit (prospects)? Check.

Is the point of all that to say something so ridiculous that no one can respond to it? I usually don't call out people, but I would honestly expect better from a poster on the ORG. You can dislike Dunn as a player and think the Reds could find a better solution, but to go into this kind of speculation against a player who has been productive, hard-working and loyal to the Reds is just not fair.

How was it that the Reds offense ranked first in 2005 in runs scored? They led the league in homers (by 28), and was only middle of the pack in batting average. They didn't have the highest OBP, but they certainly had the highest SLG%. Adam Dunn, at season's end, ended up with a bit better of a batting average, similar OBP, and a bit higher of a SLG% than what he currently has. In 2004, Adam Dunn had an even better season than 2005, his best season actually of his career; a .266 BA, 80 XBH, the most hits he has ever compiled in one season.... of course he also broke the record for strikeouts that year, earning him the dismay of many Reds fans. BUT the 2004 Reds had only the 10th best offense in the NL and scored 70 less runs. Surely Adam's Dunn 2004 season, with a near .960 OPS, would have boosted the morale of the team and caused them to rise up to his performance, no? Why then would the 2005 Reds have a better offense, even if Dunn's OPS dropped .30 points and Adam Dunn had 30 less total bases? Could their performance in fact be dependent on the team dynamic as a whole and not one or two players leading the way for all others?

Personally, I think what you (and others) are proposing is an easy way out. Is this year's offense amazing? No. Is Adam Dunn having the season of his life? No. But to make this connection is simply an easy way to think about the woes of the lineup. It's a lot easier to think that the impending FA and likely to depart Red Adam Dunn is the root of all evil, tainting all those whom are good and wholesome around (ie, players we expect to see next season) than to blame any sort of problems they are having on them or the coaching staff who actually gives them batting advice.

Phillips is not a cleanup hitter. He never was and that's not just hindsight talking as he does not have (nor has ever had) the desired skills to succeed in that role. What do you think has a greater impact on Phillips, batting 4th or seeing what Adam Dunn does? Brandon Phillips is a man, not a little impressionable boy. He see's his spot in the lineup and the expectations to go with it... to slug, to drive in runs and I doubt he is emulating Dunn consciously or sub-consciously at all. He and Dunn are in the same age group and Dunn would not have been an idol to him at all.

Bruce is a talented young player and hopefully the cornerstone to our lineup. But it's impossible for a rookie to struggle right? That just doesn't happen in baseball, especially a talented highly praised one at that (paging Alex Gordon.) Bruce is battling himself more than he is the temptation to swing like Dunn. He has had undue pressure put on him by various fans expecting him to play the role of a savior when only a couple of years ago he had mom washing his clothes and making sure he had a lunch for school.

This is the bottom line, Adam Dunn is just one player on the field. Could he be better? Sure. I wish all of our players in the lineup performed at a higher rate, we sure would have a few more wins if they did. But what Cincinnati and it's fans have done to paint him as the enemy is just ludicrous, this is the like the greatest political smear campaign. Dunn plays through pain. Dunn plays the season in most cases. He is never happy with what he has done and is often overly critical of his performance. Dunn hasn't gotten into trouble with the law and seems to have a happy family now. Dunn doesn't request trades or stir up controversy through the media. Dunn might not be able to turn himself into the .350 hitting gold glove leftfielder that some demand, but he has managed to cut down on his strikeouts and improve his defense. He even missed the World Baseball Classic to try to learn firstbase.

Should all Reds fans build a giant golden idol of him and worship at the feet? Nah. But for a guy who works hard, wants to win, wants to get better... it seems awful silly to blame him for all problems encountered. I am sure if you would ask most of the young players the Reds have brought up who has had the most positive experience on them, I am sure many would say Dunn.

Again, these are grown men, not impressionable boys trying to imitate others. If you would ask a Jay Bruce about what he might try to imitate about either Griffey or Dunn, I am sure his response would differ from your vision. Griffey is a determined man who has fought injury after injury, and is known for his storied career without the use of performance enhancers. Dunn is a man who works hard at his game, will play through pain and isn't shy to admit that he wasn't happy with his performance and seeks to improve on it.

I am a fan of Dunn obviously. I believe it would be in the best interests to explore an extension with him, but not at any cost. It disheartens me though that fans of my team can't appreciate a good guy who works hard and has put up numbers consistently unlike few Reds have in recent memory. Maybe he doesn't have the prettiest stat line and I can certainly understand some who think the Reds should pursue other options, but to characterize him as some sort of cancer like being, plaguing all those he touches, really does sadden me. I think that the players on our team, young or old, rely on their own instincts in situations and do not happen to look down at their wrists to ponder their WWADD bracelet (What Would Adam Dunn Do,) not only is that unfair to Dunn but also to the players who you believe have been tainted by him, I'd like to believe they are all a bit more mentally resilient than that.

I'm sorry I missed this post before. That's outstanding.



Originally Posted by red-in-la View Post
I agree. But also, isn't a part of the point, which no stat can handle, what does the hitter intend do do with that swing?

If you are Adam Dunn, and you swing reaches the green seats () then what are your chances? Experience tells me that Dunn fails to swing because he cannot hit the ball very often......and even with two strikes, he still wants to hit the ball off a building across the street or in the river.

And he does NOT consider what his AB means to his team or the situation.

A guy who consistently hits enough HR's to consistently pass well beyond 120-130 RBI's, but struggles the last week of the season to reach 100, is not trying to drive in runs.

Dunn is one of those guys (as was Dave Kingman) who simply wants to hit a HR no matter what the game situation. To me, it IS the reason the Reds need to let him walk. It IS the reason the Reds offense is dysfunctional, but let me clarify that.

The last point is rampant throughout the Reds offense. I think the really young guys, like Votto haven't been infected yet......conversely, I think Bruce has already caught the disease big time from Dunn and JR, which is the main reason I would get rid of JR and Dunn ASAP.

I know (of course this is my opinion for those of you who are already thinking, "how do YOU know that?") Phillips now suffers from it big time.

In general, the entire Reds hitting compliment pulls-off the ball......and it is the olde 5 run HR syndrome.

We can only hope that all the Reds young hitters "catch" whatever disease it is that make JR. and Dunn hit the way they do. I suspect that an acute case of plate discipline will be the first symptoms. We'll have to watch for it.