PDA

View Full Version : 1.070 OPS over the last 30 games.



VR
07-12-2008, 01:01 AM
David Ross has turned back the clock to 2006, where he ops'ed over 1.000 in 3 seperate months, over .900 2 others.



He's OPSed over 2.200 the last week....will he get another start this series?

fearofpopvol1
07-12-2008, 01:07 AM
He has definitely looked good with the bat as of late.

Tornon
07-12-2008, 01:13 AM
I'd be willing to bet Ross will start Sunday against Sabathia. I can see Bako starting Saturday against the righty and because Bako seems to catch Volquez alot.

WVRedsFan
07-12-2008, 01:19 AM
Yes. Against lefties, and for right now, Ross is hot. The fool's gold will stop as the season rolls along. Play him while he's hot, but beware of the fall.

VR
07-12-2008, 01:21 AM
I'd be willing to bet Ross will start Sunday against Sabathia. I can see Bako starting Saturday against the righty and because Bako seems to catch Volquez alot.

Interesting that Ross is hitting righties much better than lefties this year, and Bako is hitting lefties much better than righties.



Bako, by the way, has an OPS well under .500 over the last 2 months. Man. He was great the first three weeks though.

WVRedsFan
07-12-2008, 01:33 AM
Interesting that Ross is hitting righties much better than lefties this year, and Bako is hitting lefties much better than righties.



Bako, by the way, has an OPS well under .500 over the last 2 months. Man. He was great the first three weeks though.

Back to the norm...

OnBaseMachine
07-12-2008, 01:35 AM
Ross is raising his trade value. Hopefully Jocketty can turn him into a decent prospect.

VR
07-12-2008, 01:43 AM
Ross is raising his trade value. Hopefully Jocketty can turn him into a decent prospect.

IF we assume Ross is more of the 2006 guy than the April/May 2007 guy....what is the upgrade out there for Ross' career Reds numbers.....OPS over .800, CS% over 42?, Let alone his potential to be .900+?

Ron Madden
07-12-2008, 01:48 AM
We have three catchers on the 25 man roster. All three are too old.

mbgrayson
07-12-2008, 01:51 AM
Last month stats are very small sample size: 38 at bats.....

Big Klu
07-12-2008, 03:03 AM
I'd be willing to bet Ross will start Sunday against Sabathia. I can see Bako starting Saturday against the righty and because Bako seems to catch Volquez alot.

Also, with Sunday being a day game after a night game, it makes sense to have two different catchers Saturday and Sunday.

mth123
07-12-2008, 04:21 AM
IF we assume Ross is more of the 2006 guy than the April/May 2007 guy....what is the upgrade out there for Ross' career Reds numbers.....OPS over .800, CS% over 42?, Let alone his potential to be .900+?

The upgrade is to get a catcher that can actually catch the ball and isn't afraid of plays at the plate.

Screwball
07-12-2008, 04:38 AM
Last month stats are very small sample size: 38 at bats.....

Yes, and while it won't last, there's no good reason to keep a hot bat out of the lineup for someone who is currently OPSing under .500 (albeit in a cherry-picked sample size).

Bako can't catch the ball either. Playing Ross only helps our chances right now.

GAC
07-12-2008, 05:56 AM
I'll take Ross over the other two, but look at the choices? No brainer! :lol:

Jocketty has his work cut out for him at the catching position in what is a lean market. It's why we have those three to begin with.

mth123
07-12-2008, 06:25 AM
Bako can't catch the ball either. Playing Ross only helps our chances right now.

Agree there. Let Ross play while he's hitting and bump his trade value. Maybe instead of a shattered Maple bat in return we could get a cracked Ash bat instead.

PuffyPig
07-12-2008, 08:22 AM
Agree there. Let Ross play while he's hitting and bump his trade value. Maybe instead of a shattered Maple bat in return we could get a cracked Ash bat instead.


It continues to mystify me that everyone wants to dump likely our best all around catcher before we get a replacement?

I'd love to have a better catcher than Ross too, but untilthat happens,let's keep him close, because it's likely it may well be hard to get a better one come next year.

mth123
07-12-2008, 08:37 AM
It continues to mystify me that everyone wants to dump likely our best all around catcher before we get a replacement?

I'd love to have a better catcher than Ross too, but untilthat happens,let's keep him close, because it's likely it may well be hard to get a better one come next year.

Where we disagree is our evaluation of Ross. Of guys who actually play defense, I think he is the worst defensive player in baseball not named Griffey. He normally can't hit either. If the remainder of his contract and his admittedly small (375K) option buy-out can be moved for some savings and just about anything in return, I think the Reds come out ahead by replacing him with a defensive minded minor leaguer. You may get some one to take his $1.5 Million or so remaining (including option buy-out) now while he's hitting. Time to do that and use the cash to sign some more teenagers from south of the border or get Alonso in the fold.

VR
07-12-2008, 09:27 AM
Where we disagree is our evaluation of Ross. Of guys who actually play defense, I think he is the worst defensive player in baseball not named Griffey. He normally can't hit either. If the remainder of his contract and his admittedly small (375K) option buy-out can be moved for some savings and just about anything in return, I think the Reds come out ahead by replacing him with a defensive minded minor leaguer. You may get some one to take his $1.5 Million or so remaining (including option buy-out) now while he's hitting. Time to do that and use the cash to sign some more teenagers from south of the border or get Alonso in the fold.

I think you'd be stunned to compare catchers stats over the last three years, and see how Ross shapes up.

What is obvious is he is heads and shoulders above both Valentin and Bako.

Cooper
07-12-2008, 09:58 AM
I tend to be in agreement with VR. It's clear Ross has trouble catching the ball on a throw to the plate. Often in those cases he tends to look up at the runner before he has caught the ball. A lot of catchers do that-they get drilled a couple times and then get the jitters when a runner approaches. Is it really worth it to block the plate and get toasted by an incoming runner? I'm not sure.

Maybe it's better to tell your catcher to do the Johnny Bench tage where the catcher would take out one part of the plate and attempt to take out more relative to the ball arriving sooner. Is it worth it to lose a good catcher for a while over 1 run? Probably not, but somehow over time the catcher has been expected to sit back there and wait to be hit by an on-coming train. Bill James (in one of his books) points out that the catcher blocking the plate is a relatively new strategy that has evolved. I guess they didn't do a lot of it until the 50's and then it grew to be an expectation. Is it worth it for 1 run?

As far as Ross being a bad defensive catcher....he's not great. He lacks lateral movement when attempting to block a pitch in the dirt. He appears average to me in his ability to block a ball in the dirt.

As far as throwing runners out. He used to be slightly above league average. This year his stats are low, but it's a very small sample size so I don't know what kind of credence we can give to those ratios.

Lastly, his hitting seems to have improved lately based on him going toward RF once in a while and laying off pitches he could not hit.

Is he worth keeping? He's a league average catcher and there ain't a whole in the farm system to take his place. He's worth keeping.

RedlegJake
07-12-2008, 10:01 AM
Ross gets maligned a lot here but I think with a bat he's better than most ML catchers right now. Put him in the lineup and let him play and he'll hit. He'll also play bad defense. He's Eddie Taubensee light - not quite as good a stick and a better arm but much worse mitt. He's way better than Bako (his defense is overrated and his bat is worse than awful) or Valentin (who is overrated with a bat and as good a gloveman as Ross without an arm - which means really really bad).

mth123
07-12-2008, 12:28 PM
It's clear Ross has trouble catching the ball on a throw to the plate.

As far as Ross being a bad defensive catcher....he's not great. He lacks lateral movement when attempting to block a pitch in the dirt. He appears average to me in his ability to block a ball in the dirt.

As far as throwing runners out. He used to be slightly above league average. This year his stats are low, but it's a very small sample size so I don't know what kind of credence we can give to those ratios.



I cherry picked these points from your post because they make the points I specifically want to respond to.

IMO Ross has trouble not only catching the ball on a throw to the plate, but he's not good at catching the ball on pitches from the pitcher. Your point about lateral movement is correct, but I don't think he is average at blockiong balls or even catching them when thrown right to him.

I do think his arm is pretty good, but these days the running game is not as prevelant as in the 70s and 80s. Catching the ball thrown from the pitcher is infinitely more improtant than throwing ability IMO.

As far as his hitting, he has occassional power and his plate discipline comes and goes. He's on a good streak right now and I'm glad. I want him gone while he is on an upswing and before the Reds lock in to him for 2009 and we're stuck with another year of such defensive inadequacy and offensive mediocrity.

I think its funny how in general we're hung up on offense from the most important defensive spot on the field while going crazy because our only superior offensive player isn't a great defender at the least important spot on the field (LF).

RedsManRick
07-12-2008, 12:32 PM
I was sounding the "Dave Ross's bat will back bounce" horn pretty hard this past offseason. Good to see he's making me look smart. Clearly his glove is weak, but it's good to see him hitting again.

fearofpopvol1
07-12-2008, 12:59 PM
Where we disagree is our evaluation of Ross. Of guys who actually play defense, I think he is the worst defensive player in baseball not named Griffey. He normally can't hit either. If the remainder of his contract and his admittedly small (375K) option buy-out can be moved for some savings and just about anything in return, I think the Reds come out ahead by replacing him with a defensive minded minor leaguer. You may get some one to take his $1.5 Million or so remaining (including option buy-out) now while he's hitting. Time to do that and use the cash to sign some more teenagers from south of the border or get Alonso in the fold.

The worst defensive player in baseball not named Griffey?? Javy V says :wave:. Adam Dunn and Alfonso Soriano too. And a lot of other players as well.

Big Klu
07-12-2008, 01:13 PM
The worst defensive player in baseball not named Griffey?? Javy V says :wave:. Adam Dunn and Alfonso Soriano too. And a lot of other players as well.

Jason Giambi.

*BaseClogger*
07-12-2008, 01:59 PM
I would say Dave Ross's arm makes up for any receiving inadequacies. he is ML average, which is great for the Reds who have no alternatives on the farm...

Jpup
07-12-2008, 02:01 PM
Jason Giambi.

Giambi isn't nearly as bad as he's made out to be. He doesn't cost his team very often.

PuffyPig
07-12-2008, 02:04 PM
Where we disagree is our evaluation of Ross. Of guys who actually play defense, I think he is the worst defensive player in baseball not named Griffey. He normally can't hit either.

Ross has a lifetime OPS of .755, which is very good for a catcher.

This year, there are currently 5 catchers in the majors with a better OPS than Ross's lifetime OPS of .755.

Ross is a very good hitter for a catcher.

mth123
07-12-2008, 05:15 PM
The worst defensive player in baseball not named Griffey?? Javy V says :wave:. Adam Dunn and Alfonso Soriano too. And a lot of other players as well.

I'm aware of all those guys. If Javy played defense anymore I'd agree on him. I think Adam Dunn, Alfonso Soriano and Jason Giambi are better defensively at their positions than Ross is at his.

Blitz Dorsey
07-12-2008, 05:19 PM
I would say Dave Ross's arm makes up for any receiving inadequacies. he is ML average, which is great for the Reds who have no alternatives on the farm...

Ryan Hanigan has the chance to be every bit as "good" as Dave Ross as a Major League player... and maybe even better. Hanigan has a good arm based upon the amount of basestealers he has thrown out this year. Can't say I've seen him play live though. His batting numbers are also very good this year for a catcher playing at AAA. He will be the Reds' backup next year IMO. Jocketty will need to find us a real starting catcher in the offseason. Or, who knows, if Ross keeps it up, maybe they will just pick up his option for '09. But I tend to doubt it. Ross has a pretty hefty option for next year (a little less than $5 million I think) given his production.

redsrule2500
07-12-2008, 05:34 PM
I would pick him up on my fantasy team, but he doesn't play enough

fearofpopvol1
07-12-2008, 05:53 PM
I'm aware of all those guys. If Javy played defense anymore I'd agree on him. I think Adam Dunn, Alfonso Soriano and Jason Giambi are better defensively at their positions than Ross is at his.

By what metrics?? I realize that David Ross isn't great with blocking balls and isn't really thought of as a "tough" catcher, but he's had pretty good success throwing out runners, which is definitely an important part of catching. Don't forget that when the Reds saw some success in 2006, Ross was calling the majority of those games.

mth123
07-12-2008, 07:33 PM
By what metrics?? I realize that David Ross isn't great with blocking balls and isn't really thought of as a "tough" catcher, but he's had pretty good success throwing out runners, which is definitely an important part of catching. Don't forget that when the Reds saw some success in 2006, Ross was calling the majority of those games.

There really aren't metrics for a catcher that are worth anything. Range is not applicable and CS% is such a minor part of what a catcher does I think it gets way more credence than it should simply because its an available number. Passed Balls is an incomplete metric because its totally arbitrary and many wild pitches are the catcher's fault. I'll trust what I see and what I see is a guy who looks like he can't catch very well. Since the position is called "Catcher" I think that's a problem.

As for his offense, his career numbers are mostly inflated due to his career season in 2006. 2007 is a better indicator of his ability IMO in spite of his current hot streak.

*BaseClogger*
07-12-2008, 07:42 PM
Ryan Hanigan has the chance to be every bit as "good" as Dave Ross as a Major League player... and maybe even better. Hanigan has a good arm based upon the amount of basestealers he has thrown out this year. Can't say I've seen him play live though. His batting numbers are also very good this year for a catcher playing at AAA. He will be the Reds' backup next year IMO. Jocketty will need to find us a real starting catcher in the offseason. Or, who knows, if Ross keeps it up, maybe they will just pick up his option for '09. But I tend to doubt it. Ross has a pretty hefty option for next year (a little less than $5 million I think) given his production.

Hanigan's OPS in AAA is actually worse than Dave Ross's ML OPS. I would tend to agree that I would rather have Hanigan in 2009 and beyond because of the age/cost concern, but for right now it is clear Dave Ross is the Reds best catcher...

*BaseClogger*
07-12-2008, 07:52 PM
There really aren't metrics for a catcher that are worth anything. Range is not applicable and CS% is such a minor part of what a catcher does I think it gets way more credence than it should simply because its an available number. Passed Balls is an incomplete metric because its totally arbitrary and many wild pitches are the catcher's fault. I'll trust what I see and what I see is a guy who looks like he can't catch very well. Since the position is called "Catcher" I think that's a problem.

As for his offense, his career numbers are mostly inflated due to his career season in 2006. 2007 is a better indicator of his ability IMO in spite of his current hot streak.

I think you are underrating a CS. A CS is an out--if you replaced 5 CS with 5 prevented PB you would lose 5 outs for 5 advanced bases. And PB and WP are no good because they depend on the pitching staff--some pitching staffs are going to be tougher on some catchers than others. If you look up his PB and WP you will see that they are not that far out of line with other elite catchers:

2007
Dave Ross: 1 PB every 18 games/1 WP every 3.375 games
Russell Martin: 1 PB every 29 games/1 WP every 3.625 games
Brian McCann: 1 PB every 22 games/1 WP 3.67 every games

Dave Ross is an average catcher, and for the Reds that is very valuable...

fearofpopvol1
07-12-2008, 07:55 PM
There really aren't metrics for a catcher that are worth anything. Range is not applicable and CS% is such a minor part of what a catcher does I think it gets way more credence than it should simply because its an available number. Passed Balls is an incomplete metric because its totally arbitrary and many wild pitches are the catcher's fault. I'll trust what I see and what I see is a guy who looks like he can't catch very well. Since the position is called "Catcher" I think that's a problem.

As for his offense, his career numbers are mostly inflated due to his career season in 2006. 2007 is a better indicator of his ability IMO in spite of his current hot streak.

While I agree that CS% is maybe a bit overrated, it's still worth looking at. It doesn't tell the whole story of a catcher's abilities by any means, but it's worth studying. How do you figure that 2007 was indicative of his career? He had that pretty serious collision that seemingly ruined his entire season. He was never the same after that to be fair.

While not all stats/metrics tell the story, the "I trust what I see" argument is weak without some sort of stats or analysis to back it up.

mth123
07-12-2008, 08:00 PM
I think you are underrating a CS. A CS is an out--if you replaced 5 CS with 5 prevented PB you would lose 5 outs for 5 advanced bases. And PB and WP are no good because they depend on the pitching staff--some pitching staffs are going to be tougher on some catchers than others. If you look up his PB and WP you will see that they are not that far out of line with other elite catchers:

2007
Dave Ross: 1 PB every 18 games/1 WP every 3.375 games
Russell Martin: 1 PB every 29 games/1 WP every 3.625 games
Brian McCann: 1 PB every 22 games/1 WP 3.67 every games

Dave Ross is an average catcher, and for the Reds that is very valuable...


I don't have anything against the CS stat, (its also very dependent on the pitcher BTW). Its just how many attempts per year against a catcher are there in a season? 50? 60? 70? Seems fairly minor in comparison to catching the ball, which the catcher needs to do on every pitch. I want a good receiver first, the CS % is secondary IMO and doesn't make-up for being a poor receiver.

VR
07-12-2008, 08:19 PM
I don't have anything against the CS stat, (its also very dependent on the pitcher BTW). Its just how many attempts per year against a catcher are there in a season? 50? 60? 70? Seems fairly minor in comparison to catching the ball, which the catcher needs to do on every pitch. I want a good receiver first, the CS % is secondary IMO and doesn't make-up for being a poor receiver.

The Padres have well over 100 sb attempts against this year already. (80 + steals). The average club has about 85 sb attempts against already.


It's not just the CS, it's also the opponent realizing they can't steal against certain catchers....keeping attempts low.

There's two regular MLB catchers with a CS above 40% this year. Ross is 43% in his Reds career. Yeah, I think that's significant.

mth123
07-12-2008, 08:30 PM
The Padres have well over 100 sb attempts against this year already. (80 + steals). The average club has about 85 sb attempts against already.


It's not just the CS, it's also the opponent realizing they can't steal against certain catchers....keeping attempts low.

There's two regular MLB catchers with a CS above 40% this year. Ross is 43% in his Reds career. Yeah, I think that's significant.

In that huge park it makes sense. Not the same as GABP.

*BaseClogger*
07-13-2008, 12:39 AM
In that huge park it makes sense. Not the same as GABP.

Well, yeah, that and Josh Bard's CS% is 12.8% and Michael Barrett's is 10.4%...

*BaseClogger*
07-13-2008, 12:40 AM
I don't have anything against the CS stat, (its also very dependent on the pitcher BTW). Its just how many attempts per year against a catcher are there in a season? 50? 60? 70? Seems fairly minor in comparison to catching the ball, which the catcher needs to do on every pitch. I want a good receiver first, the CS % is secondary IMO and doesn't make-up for being a poor receiver.

I concede that CS is also dependent on the pitcher, but I still see no evidence that Ross is sooo horrendous at handling the ball (sure, he's bad)...