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View Full Version : Moves I'd make right now



Benihana
07-12-2008, 11:52 AM
If I'm Walt, here's what I'm doing over the next three weeks:

While I would love to get Matt Kemp (I would offer Dunn and Keppinger,) I'm beginning to think it's not likely he'll be moved- or, at least that the Reds don't have what it will take to pry him loose. Thus, I'd turn my attention to Jason Bay, who the Pirates are definitely trying to move. Published reports over the last two days have said that they're asking for Emilio Bonifaciio from the D'backs and Colby Rasmus from the Cardinals. So I would offer either of the following two packages: Homer Bailey and Jeff Keppinger; or Chris Valaika, Drew Stubbs and Matt Maloney. Either package would give them the 2B they are looking for in addition to a strong additional prospect. Bay is signed for next year at a reasonable rate and would provide a RH-bat and upgrade defensively over Dunn. If they take the first package (Bailey and Keppinger), I would immediately promote Maloney to take Bailey's place in the rotation and let Hairston be the everyday SS for the remainder of the season, with Janish as the backup. Valaika seems poised to take over SS in Cincinnati at this time next year. If they take the second package, the Reds have added a critical piece to the major league team without disrupting any of the organizational core. While the second package may seem weak to some, Valaika is better than Bonifacio IMO and Stubbs would give them the CF they appear to be looking for in Rasmus (obv a lesser prospect, but the Bucs have been reportedly just asking for Bonifacio.)

Second, I would shop Bronson Arroyo around the league, but only move him if we get a favorable return back that would hopefully include a young SS, CF or C of the future. Possible targets include Taylor Teagarden from Texas, Justin Masterson (and/or Jed Lowrie) from Boston, and Austin Jackson from the Yankees. Lou Marson from Philly would be nice, but apparently he might not be moved. If Arroyo is traded, I would make an offseason play for Derek Lowe, offering him something in the neighborhood of a two year, $24 MM deal. That way, the $$ comes off the books by the time all the rookies are eligible for arbitration. If you don't get any favorable offers, I would hang onto him as my #4 pitcher going forward.

Assuming there aren't many good trade offers out there, I would hang onto Dunn and offer him arb at the end of the year, hoping he declines so we can take the picks.

I would trade Jr. asap for any return in talent or players that exceeds $4 MM. Maybe the Rays would give up Reid Brignac for him?

I would trade David Ross immediately (most likely to Florida), taking advantage of his recent hitting surge. Any positive return would be a nice bonus- trades like these were Krivsky's specialty, he had a way of extracting nice talent for marginal players.

Ditto for David Weathers- trade him immediately (for any return) and DFA Gary Majewski (who is one of the worst pitchers I've ever seen in Cincy.) Bring up Belisle and Roenicke to take their place, and your team is instantly better IMO.

Speaking of Roenicke, once he is promoted I would send Manuel to Louisville to close games there, and bump LeCure and Jukich to the AAA rotation. I would also DFA Corey Patterson, bring up Chris Dickerson, and promote Henry and Dorn to join Cumberland in the Louisville OF. I would also have Stewart finish the year in Sarasota, and begin 2009 in Chattanooga. Finally, I would offer Jay Bruce a 7 year, $30-35 million deal. Lock him up now, and you're really not risking a lot even if he achieves his worst-case scenario.

Thoughts?

Homer Bailey
07-12-2008, 12:05 PM
If I'm Walt, here's what I'm doing over the next three weeks:

While I would love to get Matt Kemp (I would offer Dunn and Keppinger,) I'm beginning to think it's not likely he'll be moved- or, at least that the Reds don't have what it will take to pry him loose. Thus, I'd turn my attention to Jason Bay, who the Pirates are definitely trying to move. Published reports over the last two days have said that they're asking for Emilio Bonifaciio from the D'backs and Colby Rasmus from the Cardinals. So I would offer either of the following two packages: Homer Bailey and Jeff Keppinger; or Chris Valaika, Drew Stubbs and Matt Maloney. Either package would give them the 2B they are looking for in addition to a strong additional prospect. Bay is signed for next year at a reasonable rate and would provide a RH-bat and upgrade defensively over Dunn. If they take the first package (Bailey and Keppinger), I would immediately promote Maloney to take Bailey's place in the rotation and let Hairston be the everyday SS for the remainder of the season, with Janish as the backup. Valaika seems poised to take over SS in Cincinnati at this time next year. If they take the second package, the Reds have added a critical piece to the major league team without disrupting any of the organizational core. While the second package may seem weak to some, Valaika is better than Bonifacio IMO and Stubbs would give them the CF they appear to be looking for in Rasmus (obv a lesser prospect, but the Bucs have been reportedly just asking for Bonifacio.)

Second, I would shop Bronson Arroyo around the league, but only move him if we get a favorable return back that would hopefully include a young SS, CF or C of the future. Possible targets include Taylor Teagarden from Texas, Justin Masterson (and/or Jed Lowrie) from Boston, and Austin Jackson from the Yankees. Lou Marson from Philly would be nice, but apparently he might not be moved. If Arroyo is traded, I would make an offseason play for Derek Lowe, offering him something in the neighborhood of a two year, $24 MM deal. That way, the $$ comes off the books by the time all the rookies are eligible for arbitration. If you don't get any favorable offers, I would hang onto him as my #4 pitcher going forward.

Assuming there aren't many good trade offers out there, I would hang onto Dunn and offer him arb at the end of the year, hoping he declines so we can take the picks.

I would trade Jr. asap for any return in talent or players that exceeds $4 MM. Maybe the Rays would give up Reid Brignac for him?

I would trade David Ross immediately (most likely to Florida), taking advantage of his recent hitting surge. Any positive return would be a nice bonus- trades like these were Krivsky's specialty, he had a way of extracting nice talent for marginal players.

Ditto for David Weathers- trade him immediately (for any return) and DFA Gary Majewski (who is one of the worst pitchers I've ever seen in Cincy.) Bring up Belisle and Roenicke to take their place, and your team is instantly better IMO.

Speaking of Roenicke, once he is promoted I would send Manuel to Louisville to close games there, and bump LeCure and Jukich to the AAA rotation. I would also DFA Corey Patterson, bring up Chris Dickerson, and promote Henry and Dorn to join Cumberland in the Louisville OF. I would also have Stewart finish the year in Sarasota, and begin 2009 in Chattanooga. Finally, I would offer Jay Bruce a 7 year, $30-35 million deal. Lock him up now, and you're really not risking a lot even if he achieves his worst-case scenario.

Thoughts?


First, I don't think Valaika is anywhere close to be a major league SS. Scouts say his future is not at short. 2nd, he's only in AA right now. I would have to see some sustained success in AAA before he gets to the major league level.

I disagree about locking Bruce up now. What's the hurry? He's not arbitration eligible til after 2010 (right?). Let's keep him cheap while we can.

In regards to Bay, I don't think he's a solution to our problems unless we can sign him for longer than just next year. It's not like next year is "our year." I would love to have Bay though.

Benihana
07-12-2008, 12:14 PM
First, I don't think Valaika is anywhere close to be a major league SS. Scouts say his future is not at short. 2nd, he's only in AA right now. I would have to see some sustained success in AAA before he gets to the major league level.

I disagree about locking Bruce up now. What's the hurry? He's not arbitration eligible til after 2010 (right?). Let's keep him cheap while we can.

In regards to Bay, I don't think he's a solution to our problems unless we can sign him for longer than just next year. It's not like next year is "our year." I would love to have Bay though.

1. I never said Valaika was "close." I said that I think he could be ready for the majors by this time next year, which I think is perfectly reasonable. He's doing very well in AA, and provided he has a good first half in Louisville, he could and should be ready for the bigs by this time next year. And while his future position has been debated heavily, there are certainly a fair share of scouts (including ones that work for the Reds) that believe he will stick at SS.

2. You obviously don't understand anything about locking in fixed costs. Even if Bruce has similar production to Adam Dunn a few years from now (which I think people expect more than that) the Reds will save millions from a move like this. As far as his recent slump goes, I have two words: Buy low.

3. With Dunn, Jr., and possibly Arroyo off the books, who says the Reds can't sign Bay beyond next year? In the meantime, it buys us another year to evaluate Bruce, Frazier, Alonso, Votto and Encarnacion to see how the future stacks up and if one of those guys will be ready to step in and play LF (or RF.)

fearofpopvol1
07-12-2008, 01:02 PM
Arroyo for Teagarden is not a sound trade. I know the Reds need catching, but if they're going to trade pitching for it, I would hope they could at least get a catcher that projects a bit better. Teagarden's stick projects to be average to below average in the bigs.

*BaseClogger*
07-12-2008, 02:02 PM
I disagree about locking Bruce up now. What's the hurry? He's not arbitration eligible til after 2010 (right?). Let's keep him cheap while we can.

I agree. I think by avoiding Super Two status he is not eligible for arbitration until after 2011, but somebody else correct me if I'm wrong...

MasonBuzz3
07-12-2008, 04:25 PM
I agree with you about locking up Bruce long term, I think that you are right about on the terms too. Look at when Cleveland locked up Sizemore, he got 6 yr/ $23.45 mil with a club option to make it 7 yr/ $31.45. Sizemore signed that after his first year in the bigs, so I don't think that 7/$35 mil would be out of the question. That would be a tough deal for Bruce to turn down.
Tulowitski and Braun's contracts are similar situations as well

redsmetz
07-12-2008, 05:06 PM
I agree with you about locking up Bruce long term, I think that you are right about on the terms too. Look at when Cleveland locked up Sizemore, he got 6 yr/ $23.45 mil with a club option to make it 7 yr/ $31.45. Sizemore signed that after his first year in the bigs, so I don't think that 7/$35 mil would be out of the question. That would be a tough deal for Bruce to turn down.
Tulowitski and Braun's contracts are similar situations as well

Cleveland's who I thought of right away. They did this quite a lot when they were first up and coming back in the 90's.

jojo
07-12-2008, 05:39 PM
Thus, I'd turn my attention to Jason Bay, who the Pirates are definitely trying to move. Published reports over the last two days have said that they're asking for Emilio Bonifaciio from the D'backs and Colby Rasmus from the Cardinals.

Here's a game....What is not like the other? If the Pirates would trade an economical season and a half of Bay for a future utility player who runs really fast, then the Reds might be able to at least get them to answer the phone. That said, there is a big difference between what some dream Bonifacio might become and a guy like Keppinger. I don't think the Reds can entice the pirates with any second base options IMHO.

On the other hand, if the Rasmus request is accurate, the Reds don't really have a compelling offer to pique the Pirates' interest.

Benihana
07-12-2008, 08:47 PM
Here's a game....What is not like the other? If the Pirates would trade an economical season and a half of Bay for a future utility player who runs really fast, then the Reds might be able to at least get them to answer the phone. That said, there is a big difference between what some dream Bonifacio might become and a guy like Keppinger. I don't think the Reds can entice the pirates with any second base options IMHO.

On the other hand, if the Rasmus request is accurate, the Reds don't really have a compelling offer to pique the Pirates' interest.

Here's a game...Read the press. You don't have to believe everything you read, but before issuing a cynical response, know what information is out there.

"The Pirates are believed to be seeking Arizona's top prospect Emilio Bonifacio, a second baseman, in a package. The Diamondbacks are reluctant to deal Bonifacio since Orlando Hudson may leave as a free agent after the year. "

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2008/writers/jon_heyman/07/11/pirates.bay/index.html?eref=writers

jojo
07-12-2008, 09:04 PM
Here's a game...Read the press. You don't have to believe everything you read, but before issuing a cynical response, know what information is out there.

"The Pirates are believed to be seeking Arizona's top prospect Emilio Bonifacio, a second baseman, in a package. The Diamondbacks are reluctant to deal Bonifacio since Orlando Hudson may leave as a free agent after the year. "

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2008/writers/jon_heyman/07/11/pirates.bay/index.html?eref=writers

I think my post pretty clearly entertained that both scenarios may be accurate. There was nothing cynical intended about it either-I was commenting on the apparent extremes represented by Bonifacio/Rasmus and what that might mean for Cincy.

We just seem to disagree on the notion that Cincy would be an easy fit for a Bay trade as defined by the parameters of the two stories your original post cited (I don't think it would).

There's no harm in that I hope.....

Patrick Bateman
07-12-2008, 09:19 PM
Man Jojo your taking a beating around here lately!

jojo
07-12-2008, 09:24 PM
Man Jojo your taking a beating around here lately!

Maybe I shouldn't lead with my head? :cool:

(For what it's worth, I don't think my posts come across nearly as snarky when read in the archives as many seem to take them initially)

Falls City Beer
07-12-2008, 09:36 PM
Maybe I shouldn't lead with my head? :cool:

(For what it's worth, I don't think my posts come across nearly as snarky when read in the archives as many seem to take them initially)

I mean this with nothing but constructive criticism: I don't think you've ever once admitted that you were wrong or even near-wrong about anything (and you have been, quite often).

Some humility goes a long, long way.

jojo
07-12-2008, 10:16 PM
I mean this with nothing but constructive criticism: I don't think you've ever once admitted that you were wrong or even near-wrong about anything (and you have been, quite often).

Some humility goes a long, long way.

I'm proud of my posting history.

But thanks for the advice and I'll watch you more closely and follow your lead.....

I'm even willing to entertain your PMs on the subject.

corkedbat
07-12-2008, 10:22 PM
If the Reds were to re-sign Dunn and Hairston and find a decent catcher somewhere, would you be OK with the following lineup next year (In some form or another)?

CF Hairston
SS Keppinger
LF Dunn
2B Phillips
RF Bruce
3B Encarnacion
1B Votto
C ?????

Falls City Beer
07-12-2008, 10:22 PM
I'm proud of my posting history.

But thanks for the advice and I'll watch you more closely and follow your lead.....

I'm even willing to entertain your PMs on the subject.

No one ever said you shouldn't be "proud" of your posting history. However, wondering why others perceive "snark" in your posts is something *you* should examine if it is perceived.

Your intentions don't matter much, honestly.

Stormy
07-12-2008, 10:32 PM
I'm proud of my posting history.

You should be. I know I always enjoy your contributions. It's natural that we're all going to either be misunderstood, or be less than artful in our responses at times, on a forum designed for discussing polarizing baseball issues. :beerme:

As for trading Arroyo, I'd certainly be looking for a young, big RHH bat in any equation (hopefully one that can play some plus OF defense). As for Dunn, trade him for a great return, extend him, or go all the way to arbitration offering time attempting to do so. Don't give him away, and don't fail to sign him without making an earnest effort.

flyer85
07-12-2008, 11:22 PM
I don't get the fascanation with Bay. He is also a poor defensive OF, who is a year older and has a lower career OPS than Dunn.

Benihana
07-12-2008, 11:50 PM
I don't get the fascanation with Bay. He is also a poor defensive OF, who is a year older and has a lower career OPS than Dunn.

Well, he is better defensively, plays with a lot more zeal (as dubious as that may sound), but most importantly, costs less than half as much as Dunn. I think the biggest problem with Dunn is how many people around here have grown tired of his shtick, and I think that may be spilling over into the Reds' front office.

flyer85
07-12-2008, 11:59 PM
Well, he is better defensivelynot much evidence of that. They are very comparable defensively.

Bay
2007 + 2008 FRAA (-28)
2007 RZR - .842 2008 RZR - .872


Dunn
2007 + 2008 FRAA (-15)
2007 RZR - .826 2008 RZR - .899

jojo
07-13-2008, 12:04 AM
I don't get the fascanation with Bay. He is also a poor defensive OF, who is a year older and has a lower career OPS than Dunn.

Bay's '07 was bad but here's the case for Bay (i'll leave the case against him to you): Bay and Dunn have almost identical career OPS+ (Bay=131; Dunn=130), Bay is under control for an additional year, he's signed to a very reasonable contract, and advanced defensive metrics (UZR, Dewans +/- and PMR to runs) suggest Bay is roughly a neutral defender in left while being considerable more bearish on Dunn's leather.

So far this season Bay is out "VORPing" Dunn by about a win (10 runs). So really, if a contender has to choose between Bay and renting Dunn, Bay may very well be their first choice.

flyer85
07-13-2008, 12:08 AM
Bay's '07 was bad but here's the case for Bay (i'll leave the case against him to you): Bay and Dunn have almost identical career OPS+ (Bay=131; Dunn=130), Bay is under control for an additional year, he's signed to a very reasonable contract, and advanced defensive metrics (UZR, Dewans +/- and PMR to runs) suggest Bay is roughly a neutral defender in left while being considerable more bearish on Dunn's leather.

So far this season Bay is out "VORPing" Dunn by about a win (10 runs). So really, if a contender has to choose between Bay and renting Dunn, Bay may very well be their first choice.this thread started off about the Reds acquiring Bay.

I could certainly see why a contender would give up more in a trade for Bay.

jojo
07-13-2008, 12:17 AM
this thread started off about the Reds acquiring Bay.

I could certainly see why a contender would give up more in a trade for Bay.

Bay basically replaces Dunn though. I assume that was the motivation behind the original suggestion.

flyer85
07-13-2008, 12:20 AM
Bay basically replaces Dunn though. I assume that was the motivation behind the original suggestion.for one season, the Reds really don't look like a contender for 2009 any more than 2008 regardless of whether Bay or Dunn would be in LJ for 2009

jojo
07-13-2008, 12:23 AM
However, wondering why others perceive "snark" in your posts is something *you* should examine if it is perceived.

I kind of addressed that earlier and I don't think I suggested that I considered it a mystery.


Your intentions don't matter much, honestly.

Effective, intellectually honest communication demands that a person's intentions be considered.

Once again though, this conversation is best carried on in private and I'm not going to entertain additional thoughts on the subject otherwise.

jojo
07-13-2008, 12:33 AM
for one season, the Reds really don't look like a contender for 2009 any more than 2008 regardless of whether Bay or Dunn would be in LJ for 2009

I'm not prepared to write off '09. On paper, Bay would represent one way to reasonably replace Dunn's production for '09 thus allowing Jocketty to focus on adding to the "status quo". I have no idea how he does that though.

PuffyPig
07-13-2008, 12:50 AM
If the Reds were to re-sign Dunn and Hairston and find a decent catcher somewhere, would you be OK with the following lineup next year (In some form or another)?

CF Hairston
SS Keppinger
LF Dunn
2B Phillips
RF Bruce
3B Encarnacion
1B Votto
C ?????

It looka an awful lot like this years lineup, which couldn't field or hit well enough.

Unless we get much improvement from Votto, Bruce and EE (which is possible), it's not much better than 2008.

AmarilloRed
07-13-2008, 01:06 AM
It might be difficult to get the Pirates to go for the first package with Bailey's trade value pretty low right now, but the second might be a possibility.

*BaseClogger*
07-13-2008, 01:48 AM
If the Reds were to re-sign Dunn and Hairston and find a decent catcher somewhere, would you be OK with the following lineup next year (In some form or another)?

CF Hairston
SS Keppinger
LF Dunn
2B Phillips
RF Bruce
3B Encarnacion
1B Votto
C ?????

Hairston ain't no starting CF...

Highlifeman21
07-13-2008, 09:00 AM
not much evidence of that. They are very comparable defensively.

Bay
2007 + 2008 FRAA (-28)
2007 RZR - .842 2008 RZR - .872


Dunn
2007 + 2008 FRAA (-15)
2007 RZR - .826 2008 RZR - .899

Now wait just a gosh darn minute!

You're saying that there's someone worse defensively than Adam Dunn in LF?

I read it on here all the time that Dunn is the worst defensive LF in MLB, and some even take it a step farther and say he's one of the worst in the history of MLB.

:confused:

So confused! ;)

RedLegSuperStar
07-13-2008, 10:36 AM
Moves I'd Make:

Sign Free Agent Freddy Garcia

Trade Homer Bailey, Matt Maloney, and Chris Valaika for Matt Holliday

Trade Daryl Thompson and Sam Lecure for Zach Grienke

Trade Ross and Weathers to Florida for Mid Level Prospect

Call-Up Ryan Hanigan and Josh Roenicke and DFA Corey Patterson

sonny
07-13-2008, 10:42 AM
DFA Patterson
DFA Valentin

Call Up Dickerson
Call Up Roenicke

That's the moves I'd make RIGHT NOW