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View Full Version : IMO Reds should re-sign Affeldt



Blitz Dorsey
07-12-2008, 10:14 PM
If he's willing to come back for relatively cheap (about what he makes now), re-sign him right now to a 2-year deal. A lefty that can get the fastball up to 96 consistently and has a good curve as well. I know he's struggled here and there, but overall his numbers have been good. I like the idea of having him and Bray as the Reds' top-two lefties out of the pen, paired with Burton and Cordero as the top-two righties. Then you throw in Roenicke and we have a pretty nice all-around bullpen for '09.

Spitball
07-13-2008, 01:00 AM
I agree.

jojo
07-13-2008, 01:04 AM
Affeldt is having a career year so far.

BuckeyeRedleg
07-13-2008, 01:07 AM
I wouldn't pay him anymore than he's making now.

corkedbat
07-13-2008, 01:10 AM
I agree.

The only three potential FA's I'd consider bringing back (other than AD) would be Hairston, Affeldr & Bako (as a backup catcher or LH half of a platoon with someone acquired).

The contracts would have to be very reasonable though and for no more than two years max (one preferrably).

I would deal either Hairston or Affeldt though if I got the right offer.

11larkin11
07-13-2008, 01:15 AM
Affeldt is having a career year so far.

His ERA is half a run higher than last year, his supposed "career year". Maybe since he now knows he is only a reliever, something has clicked. If no one offers up something good at the deadline, sign him up for next year.

jojo
07-13-2008, 01:24 AM
His ERA is alf a run higher than last year, his supposed "career year". Maybe since he now knows he is only a reliever, something has clicked. If no one offers up something good at the deadline, sign him up for next year.

Look at his pre-ASB peripherals though:

K/9: 9.3
BB/9: 3.4
GB%: 50%
FB%: 30.5%
BABIP: .339
HR/FB: 17.9

His HR/FB and BABIP suggest he's been unlucky.

*BaseClogger*
07-13-2008, 01:37 AM
Look at his pre-ASB peripherals though:

K/9: 9.3
BB/9: 3.4
GB%: 50%
FB%: 30.5%
BABIP: .339
HR/FB: 17.9

His HR/FB and BABIP suggest he's been unlucky.

His HR/FB% is very high especially considering the groundball rate. Part of that would be the home park, right?

jojo
07-13-2008, 01:52 AM
His HR/FB% is very high especially considering the groundball rate. Part of that would be the home park, right?

I think the only way a HR/FB rate that high could be sustainable would be via injury/cliff diving and his peripherals argue against that.

Basically, I think given enough innings, his HR/FB rate will decrease on it's own...

That said, going forward, we should expect him to strikeout fewer batters and walk a bunch more (45 innings really isn't enough to indicate his true skill level has significantly changed)....

REDREAD
07-14-2008, 09:57 AM
I would like to see Afedlt come back too. Sure, it's always a risk to give multiyear deals to middle relievers, but I'd probably give him 2 years. He's been pretty solid and we have an organizational need for a guy like him. In fact, I wouldn't mind extending him now (2 years max) , that's one less hole to fill this offseason.

princeton
07-14-2008, 10:01 AM
I think they'll try to trade him

bucksfan2
07-14-2008, 10:14 AM
I think they'll try to trade him

I do that. I think he could bring something of quality back in a trade. If he is making 3M this year his salary will go up. I think he will get north of 4M/year for 2-3 years. Bray and Herrera probably could pick up the slack instead of paying Affeldt.

RedsManRick
07-14-2008, 10:51 AM
For my money, Affeldt is the exact sort of guy who you don't give a multi-year deal to. We're seeing his upside right now. Cash in the chips, flip him for a prospect, and find an Affeldt by a different name next year. Failed starters who throw hard but have trouble finding the plate simply aren't that rare. There's no need to commit money to one of them in particular who's merely pretty decent.

OnBaseMachine
07-14-2008, 10:54 AM
I would rather see Affeldt traded and replaced with Damaso Marte in the offseason on a one year deal.

Kc61
07-14-2008, 11:01 AM
This past off-season Affeldt apparently wanted to start games. He signed with the Reds for that opportunity. It didn't work out.

My guess is that next year he will forget about starting and try for a mult-year offer someplace. Or, he will go some place he can start. I don't see Affeldt just agreeing to stay on with the Reds on a one-year deal to relieve. What's in it for Jeremy?

I fully expect the Reds to trade him or to try to work things out whereby they get a draft choice for losing him in free agency. I doubt Affeldt's a Red next year.

Affeldt has a great arm. If the Reds don't keep him, they'll need to replace him and I don't think Herrera is a replacement. Not the same type of pitcher. Pelland is a possibility -- seems like the same type, lefty, a lot of walks but a great arm. Or a new guy from the outside.

Falls City Beer
07-14-2008, 11:13 AM
For my money, Affeldt is the exact sort of guy who you don't give a multi-year deal to. We're seeing his upside right now. Cash in the chips, flip him for a prospect, and find an Affeldt by a different name next year. Failed starters who throw hard but have trouble finding the plate simply aren't that rare. There's no need to commit money to one of them in particular who's merely pretty decent.

Thank you. When I see Affeldt's control, I see a guy just asking to fall off an effectiveness cliff.

No way I give this guy another deal.

Big Klu
07-14-2008, 11:46 AM
Affeldt reminds me of Ron Villone, another hard-throwing lefty with control problems who could never quite get it all together as a starter (although Villone had a good stretch for a short period for the Reds in 1999). Though both are (or were) useful players to have around, neither are cornerstones for the foundation of a bullpen. I would be willing to negotiate with Affeldt for a one-year deal at a reasonable price, but only after the season, and only after I see what else is on the market. I would not lock into him early, or for a multi-year deal.

And I am more than willing to trade him now.

princeton
07-14-2008, 12:03 PM
Affeldt reminds me of Ron Villone, another hard-throwing lefty with control problems who could never quite get it all together as a starter (although Villone had a good stretch for a short period for the Reds in 1999). Though both are (or were) useful players to have around, neither are cornerstones for the foundation of a bullpen. I would be willing to negotiate with Affeldt for a one-year deal at a reasonable price, but only after the season, and only after I see what else is on the market. I would not lock into him early, or for a multi-year deal.

And I am more than willing to trade him now.

agreed.

the Reds may discover no deal to their liking this month (or next month, as I suspect that he'll clear waivers at his price), in which case they'll probably entertain the possibility of offering arbitration or an extension. Since there are few lefties in the farm, it's a possibility-- but they'll have a look at one or two in September.

But for now, they're surely hoping for offers.

Will M
07-14-2008, 02:37 PM
Middle relief ( Weathers, Bray, Affeldt, Lincoln ) has been very good for the Reds. We have six pitchers in the pen who are major league average or better! Weathers goes. Lincoln and Affeldt stay in 2009 for the right price.

Degenerate39
07-14-2008, 04:43 PM
Middle relief ( Weathers, Bray, Affeldt, Lincoln ) has been very good for the Reds. We have six pitchers in the pen who are major league average or better! Weathers goes. Lincoln and Affeldt stay in 2009 for the right price.

They could get Lincoln for cheap. I believe Affeldt wants to start so I don't think he'll be coming back next year. Hopefully I'm wrong I'd like to see him stay for another year or two.

*BaseClogger*
07-14-2008, 04:47 PM
Lincoln and Affeldt types are available every year. They are the perfect example of relievers you don't give extensions, and why it really is not that hard to build a bullpen. For all the great moves Krivsky made, I can't believe the guy couldn't build a respectable bullpen...

princeton
07-14-2008, 04:51 PM
For all the great moves Krivsky made, I can't believe the guy couldn't build a respectable bullpen...

psst...

he did ;)

Highlifeman21
07-14-2008, 04:52 PM
I think they'll try to trade him

Exactly.

Sell high. Trade him.

*BaseClogger*
07-14-2008, 04:55 PM
psst...

he did ;)

Unfortunately, it was by giving Cordero an unprecedented contract. But yeah, this one ain't too shabby... :cool:

SMcGavin
07-14-2008, 04:58 PM
psst...

he did ;)

Yep it's true, it just came together a couple months too late to save him.

Also I can't imagine Affeldt passing through waivers. He's a high-K lefty having a pretty solid season. I think you might be able to get a decent prospect for him over the next few weeks.

membengal
07-14-2008, 05:06 PM
Unfortunately, it was by giving Cordero an unprecedented contract. But yeah, this one ain't too shabby... :cool:

Why is that unfortunate? They are getting exactly what they needed out of Cordero. Where was there a Cordero option in-house that could provide the team that kind of stability in the back end of the bullpen? Getting Cordero pushed Weathers to set-up, allowed Burton to progress in a less stressful role than closer, and provided a stability to the pen that was desperately needed.

They are getting their money's worth. What's the issue?

Falls City Beer
07-14-2008, 05:11 PM
I still think this bullpen will have ugly numbers when all is said and done in September (no depth in the minors, guys logging big bunches of innings, guys like Weathers and Affeldt getting high-leverage innings).

princeton
07-14-2008, 05:14 PM
oh, I think that they'll try to trade some guys and audition others for next season. They should, at least.

but, what was really a dreadful bullpen for several years is now pretty good. And the most intriguing guy is Roenicke.

OnBaseMachine
07-14-2008, 05:18 PM
I still think this bullpen will have ugly numbers when all is said and done in September (no depth in the minors, guys logging big bunches of innings, guys like Weathers and Affeldt getting high-leverage innings).

Actually the Reds have decent depth in the minors with Josh Roenicke, Tyler Pelland (starting to pitch better), Robert Manuel, and Ramon Ramirez in AA/AAA.

membengal
07-14-2008, 05:19 PM
I still think this bullpen will have ugly numbers when all is said and done in September (no depth in the minors, guys logging big bunches of innings, guys like Weathers and Affeldt getting high-leverage innings).

Fixable. Move Weathers and maybe Affeldt, hand those innings to Roenicke and someone else up from the minors.

ETA: The core of a much better bullpen is in place. Cordero, Burton, Bray. The rest should be treated as expendable and available in a deal. But that core represents a real step forward for this team from where it was in past years.

Falls City Beer
07-14-2008, 05:22 PM
Fixable. Move Weathers and maybe Affeldt, hand those innings to Roenicke and someone else up from the minors.

Will Roenicke be wearing Coffey's old number? Reds need a guy who's always a pitch away from never pitching again--Williamson, Dibble, Tom Gordon.

Not enough brinksmanship in the Queen City.

REDREAD
07-14-2008, 05:24 PM
I think they'll try to trade him

If the market for him is only a Belisle type prospect (ie longshot), is it worth it?

The guy has been pretty solid this year, but I question whether his trade value is worth more than bringing him back next year.

OnBaseMachine
07-14-2008, 05:24 PM
Will Roenicke be wearing Coffey's old number? Reds need a guy who's always a pitch away from never pitching again--Williamson, Dibble, Tom Gordon.

Not enough brinksmanship in the Queen City.

What's not to like about Roenicke? You're already dissing him before he even throws a pitch in the majors?

membengal
07-14-2008, 05:26 PM
Will Roenicke be wearing Coffey's old number? Reds need a guy who's always a pitch away from never pitching again--Williamson, Dibble, Tom Gordon.

Not enough brinksmanship in the Queen City.

I see nothing from Roenicke to promote pessimism. He looks like he can be a core guy, and would be an asset right now if used properly. The rest of the pen can be filled in the off-season rather cheaply, so no need to buy back into Weathers, Affeldt, or Lincoln. Those guys are expendable.

Earlier this year, FCB, you were singing the praises of what Atlanta was doing with their pen. And then Cincy out-pitched them. I think the Reds are making strides with their pen, in their system and in what has arrived and with the moves they have made. Improvement isn't accidental, and the improvement is sustainable.

princeton
07-14-2008, 05:58 PM
Actually the Reds have decent depth in the minors with Josh Roenicke, Tyler Pelland (starting to pitch better), Robert Manuel, and Ramon Ramirez in AA/AAA.


sounded better by stopping at Josh Roenicke.

Thompson or Homer might help though.

OnBaseMachine
07-14-2008, 06:02 PM
sounded better by stopping at Josh Roenicke.

Thompson or Homer might help though.

I like the idea of putting one of Homer/Thompson in the bullpen next season assuming Arroyo is still around and only one rotation spot needs filled.

princeton
07-14-2008, 06:05 PM
I see nothing from Roenicke to promote pessimism.

in general, pessimism comes from the fact that minor league relievers wash out a lot.

specifically for Roenicke: he gives up more runs than I might have thought; seems a bit hittable for a guy that I was hoping would be scary.

but you never know until they show up in Cincinnati. I'm looking forward to finding out, but hope that they hold off on a callup for a while, and limit him when they do bring him up.

Will M
07-14-2008, 06:08 PM
People seem to be freaking out every time a role player for the Reds does well this year. I guess it is because Wayne would have given Hairston, Lincoln & Affeldt each a 2 year/$8M deal already. I don't think anyone is advocating this. Fans of these guys are simply saying they have done well and would like them back in 2009 for the right price.

OnBaseMachine
07-14-2008, 06:10 PM
One thing we need to keep in mind about Roenicke is he's thrown a total of 15.1 innings in college and 107.2 innings in the minor leagues, so he doesn't have much experience on the mound right now. He's got a fastball that he can run up to 98 mph and a nasty splitter/cutter and is currently working on a breaking pitch. As he gains more experience he'll get even better IMO.

membengal
07-14-2008, 06:11 PM
in general, pessimism comes from the fact that minor league relievers wash out a lot.

specifically for Roenicke: he gives up more runs than I might have thought; seems a bit hittable for a guy that I was hoping would be scary.

but you never know until they show up in Cincinnati. I'm looking forward to finding out, but hope that they hold off on a callup for a while, and limit him when they do bring him up.

Since they won't need him to come up and close, or set-up, or even really be a 7th inning guy, I see no reason not to be optimistic that he can cut his chops and be an asset at least as valuable as Mike Lincoln has been this year. For a rookie, that would be a nice transition.

princeton
07-14-2008, 06:13 PM
I see no reason not to be optimistic that he can cut his chops and be an asset at least as valuable as Mike Lincoln has been this year.

it's entirely possible that I've seen 20 Reds rookie pitchers too many.

*BaseClogger*
07-14-2008, 10:30 PM
Why is that unfortunate? They are getting exactly what they needed out of Cordero. Where was there a Cordero option in-house that could provide the team that kind of stability in the back end of the bullpen? Getting Cordero pushed Weathers to set-up, allowed Burton to progress in a less stressful role than closer, and provided a stability to the pen that was desperately needed.

They are getting their money's worth. What's the issue?

Well, it's only the first season of a long contract for a reliever in his 30's. Also, bullpen arms are pretty easy to find and I wish the Reds could have found their own Cordero...

LoganBuck
07-14-2008, 11:08 PM
Affeldt has a good chance of netting a draft pick doesn't he?

Degenerate39
07-14-2008, 11:17 PM
Affeldt has a good chance of netting a draft pick doesn't he?

I'm not sure if he's an A or B but say he was an A and he declined arb. and Weathers declined arb. and he's also an A. Does that man the Reds get 3 first round picks?

SteelSD
07-14-2008, 11:31 PM
One thing we need to keep in mind about Roenicke is he's thrown a total of 15.1 innings in college and 107.2 innings in the minor leagues, so he doesn't have much experience on the mound right now. He's got a fastball that he can run up to 98 mph and a nasty splitter/cutter and is currently working on a breaking pitch. As he gains more experience he'll get even better IMO.

You may be right, of course, but we shouldn't be acting as if Josh Roenicke is a young can't-miss. He'll be 26 years old in less than a month (August 4th) and he's spent pretty much his entire minor league career pitching against younger opponents while too often demonstrating severe command issues. His MiLB HR rate is solid, but his BB rate has been up and down in coordination with his K rate. That's potentially indicative of a pitcher who can get away with being "effectively wild" against younger competition, but who may end up frustrated when the highest level of professional hitters sit back and refuse to swing at offerings outside the strike zone.

LoganBuck
07-14-2008, 11:39 PM
I'm not sure if he's an A or B but say he was an A and he declined arb. and Weathers declined arb. and he's also an A. Does that man the Reds get 3 first round picks?

Depending on what happens with Adam Dunn you could be talking 5. However the Reds are playing well enough that they may end up picking 16 or higher. Then their own first pick could be in jeopardy should they pursue any decent free agents.

membengal
07-15-2008, 08:59 AM
Well, it's only the first season of a long contract for a reliever in his 30's. Also, bullpen arms are pretty easy to find and I wish the Reds could have found their own Cordero...

I agree bullpen arms are "easy to find". I flat disagree with the implication that good bullpen arms are easy to find. I further disagree that arms like Francisco Cordero's are floating out there around baseball, much less in the Reds organization. The back of the Reds pen was a gaping hole, and now it is not. Getting Cordero has slotted others correctly, giving development time to players like Burton and Bray. Maybe in a few years Burton will be ready to be a Cordero. But he wasn't just yet. And getting Cordero has bought the Reds some time.

*BaseClogger*
07-15-2008, 03:45 PM
I agree bullpen arms are "easy to find". I flat disagree with the implication that good bullpen arms are easy to find. I further disagree that arms like Francisco Cordero's are floating out there around baseball, much less in the Reds organization. The back of the Reds pen was a gaping hole, and now it is not. Getting Cordero has slotted others correctly, giving development time to players like Burton and Bray. Maybe in a few years Burton will be ready to be a Cordero. But he wasn't just yet. And getting Cordero has bought the Reds some time.

Burton is already better than Cordero and he was some AA reliever that was not protected for the Rule V Draft by the Oanland A's... Furthermore, why does he have to wait to be ready?

BuckeyeRedleg
07-15-2008, 04:12 PM
Burton is already better than Cordero and he was some AA reliever that was not protected for the Rule V Draft by the Oanland A's... Furthermore, why does he have to wait to be ready?

Burton would probably be similar to Cordero in closing duties and he could do it at 1/20 the cost.

I'm happy with Cordero, but there's other ways to fix the pen without overpaying for a closer on a team that doesn't need him for that many save opportunities. How about beefing up the bullpen in the middle (and pushing guys like Burton up), for a lot cheaper as well?

Just an idea.

Rojo
07-15-2008, 07:16 PM
Cordero's just a shade off the best, whether that's worth the money is a fair question. But, the best is worth the money. Just like getting a number 1 for the rotation you improve several spots at once.

membengal
07-16-2008, 07:39 PM
Burton is already better than Cordero and he was some AA reliever that was not protected for the Rule V Draft by the Oanland A's... Furthermore, why does he have to wait to be ready?

Could not disagree more that Burton is better than Cordero at this point.

*BaseClogger*
07-17-2008, 02:10 PM
Could not disagree more that Burton is better than Cordero at this point.

Why? Burton strikes out nearly as many, walks much fewer, gives up fewer homers, has a lower ERA, a lower xFIP, and gets more groundballs. The only category Cordero has been much better than Burton is hits, primarily because of superior luck. Cordero has a 16.8 LD% compares to that of Burton's 13.1 LD%...

membengal
07-17-2008, 03:33 PM
Because I don't think it is as simple as plugging Burton into the closer spot and getting that same production. For whatever reason, there is, in some ways, an odd psychic price to be paid to be "the closer". And I don't think Burton was in any way ready to be that guy. Perhaps he is closer now, but I still see enormous value in him continuing to cut his teeth in a set-up roll while Cordero holds down the back of the pen.

princeton
07-17-2008, 03:37 PM
For whatever reason, there is, in some ways, an odd psychic price to be paid to be "the closer". .

yup.

I actually think that CoCo would be more valuable as setup, since I think that he might not get so yippy in that role. It'd be nice if some young kid would step up as closer

Burton? Maybe, maybe not. Let's go on a win streak and find out.

*BaseClogger*
07-17-2008, 04:13 PM
Because I don't think it is as simple as plugging Burton into the closer spot and getting that same production. For whatever reason, there is, in some ways, an odd psychic price to be paid to be "the closer". And I don't think Burton was in any way ready to be that guy. Perhaps he is closer now, but I still see enormous value in him continuing to cut his teeth in a set-up roll while Cordero holds down the back of the pen.

Fair enough. We won't know until it's tried... :)

Will M
10-12-2008, 02:14 PM
Affeldt had a nice 2008: ERA+ 135 & WHIP 1.32
His 2007 numbers: ERA+ 137 & WHIP 1.36
He is 29 years old.
Basically he is a solid middle reliever in his prime. And a lefty.

I would like the Reds to keep him at the right price. If I were him I would be trying to get a 3 year deal for $3M+ a year. Bobby Howry got 3 years $12M three years ago which seemed to be the height of the salaries for middle relievers.

I think most of us would like him back at the right price. Question is what do you think it will take and should the Reds pay it?

fearofpopvol1
10-12-2008, 02:16 PM
I think he'll very easily get 3 years, $10M, possibly more.

RedsManRick
10-12-2008, 02:39 PM
Affeldt was a solid, underrated part of our pen last year. He struck out a guy per inning and had a GB/FB rate pushing 2. I'm quite surprised there wasn't more interest in him in the trade market.

Particularly given the composition of young talent we have coming up for the bullpen, I would be confused if we went after resigning Weathers and didn't talk with Affeldt. Despite being a lefty, he's not a LOOGY, with virtually no platoon split for his career or in 2008. He's just a solid middle reliever.

I'm not a big fan of shelling out for middle relief arms, but I'd prefer Affeldt to many of the other relief options out there. And frankly, he's a good model of who you should look for if you want to find somebody on the cheap -- a hard thrower who busted as a starter. I'd rather chase a few of those types for virtually nothing than commit years and millions to a guy who already made the transition.

camisadelgolf
10-12-2008, 03:02 PM
Scott Schoeneweis got a 3-year, $10.8m contract, and his ERA for his career was over 5.00. Jeremy Affeldt, however, is coming two consecutive successful years, is younger, has generally had more success over his career, has a higher upside, is in his prime, and is left-handed (even if his splits indicate he is only slightly better against left-handed hitters). The only reason I don't want Affeldt around is because of the contract it would take to keep him here. The draft pick compensation (he's reportedly a type B free agent) is just a bonus.

SMcGavin
10-12-2008, 04:13 PM
And frankly, he's a good model of who you should look for if you want to find somebody on the cheap -- a hard thrower who busted as a starter. I'd rather chase a few of those types for virtually nothing than commit years and millions to a guy who already made the transition.

Yeah. I find it kind of funny that the two free agent middle relievers that Krivsky brought in during his tenure were Mike Stanton (a horrible idea that tanked as expected) and Jeremy Affeldt (a good risk that worked out beautifully). Either Wayne got smarter or Wayne got lucky.

I would love to bring back Affeldt at a similar price to last year, but I think he will get a better offer from someone. He's a good pitcher. And I think the Reds have a couple lefties that will be solid next year in Bray and Herrera.

corkedbat
10-12-2008, 05:51 PM
I would love to have Affeldt back and I'm sure the club would love to have him at their price. What really counts though is what Affeldt wants and I have feeling that is going to be a different story.

Just a hunch, but I'm guessing they re-sign Hairston & then Stormy when Affeldt says no. I'm not a fan of re-signing Weathers though.

OnBaseMachine
10-12-2008, 05:56 PM
Forget Weathers, use that money to re-sign Affeldt. Affeldt turned out to be a much better pickup than I thought. I'd make an effort to bring him back on a two year deal if possible.

corkedbat
10-12-2008, 06:27 PM
Forget Weathers, use that money to re-sign Affeldt. Affeldt turned out to be a much better pickup than I thought. I'd make an effort to bring him back on a two year deal if possible.

I totally agree. I'm just saying that's the way I see it shaking out. I think Affledt goes on the open market and gets more than the Reds are willing to spend. I hope they prove me wrong.

If they do end up signing him it may be for a little morse (in terms of money and years) then some here would like, simply because of the market price for capable southpaw relievers. I'm guessing they'll be lucky if 3years/$11 or 12M is enough to keep him from testing the waters.

Will M
10-12-2008, 07:11 PM
of all the Reds relievers last year ( ex September callups ) Affeldt's WHIP was 2nd best. Linclon's was best.

relying on Herrara to pitch in 2009 like Affeldt did this year is a mistake IMO.

Right now we have Cordero, Burton, Bray, & Masset. Bray didn't even pitch that great last year. Signing Affeldt gives us a 5th arm in the pen. Then let the rookies fill out the 6th & 7th spots.

Imagine a scenario where Burton or Cordero goes down and Bray sucks.
Then the pen has two guys & five question marks. Yikes! I remember the 2006 & 2007 bullpens which were so so bad. I'd like to not return there.

3 years for $12M isn't really that expensive for a solid player.

SMcGavin
10-12-2008, 09:59 PM
Bray may have had the best season of any Reds reliever. He, Cordero, and Burton are good bets to reliable next year, but I don't think Masset fits in that group.

I would also like to see Mike Lincoln brought back next season. I imagine it would be cheap and the guy had a really nice 2008.

Matt700wlw
10-12-2008, 10:25 PM
I wouldn't be shocked to see Masset given an opportunity at the 5th rotation spot next year...

Will M
10-12-2008, 10:51 PM
Bray may have had the best season of any Reds reliever. He, Cordero, and Burton are good bets to reliable next year, but I don't think Masset fits in that group.

I would also like to see Mike Lincoln brought back next season. I imagine it would be cheap and the guy had a really nice 2008.

Bray's WHIP was 1.57 ! If he is the best we have then we are in deep trouble.

It seemed like every other time Bray came in to face a LH batter he walked him then was replaced by a RHP.

IMO we need at least two LHP in the pen. Bray & Herrara being the two does not inspire me with confidence for 2009.

PLUS, its not like the Reds have so many money problems that they can't afford to pay a decent pitcher a fair contract.

*BaseClogger*
10-12-2008, 11:21 PM
2008 xFIP

Bray: 3.77
Cordero: 4.08
Affeldt: 3.40
Lincoln: 4.08

RedlegJake
10-13-2008, 01:02 AM
I don't have the confidence some do in the young pen arms outside of Burton. You have to keep a couple arms like Affeldt and Lincoln or even Weathers, although I think it is time to move him out - with a due nod for his contributions the past few seasons. However, if Affeldt gets a better offer and the Reds don't pursue Lincoln or Weathers they are going to be relying on Bray, a struggling lefty who hasn't found the key to unlocking the ability in his arm yet, and Herrerra, who, imo, won't be very effective the more he is exposed and on Roenicke, who showed in his September callup he can throw hard but not with any command yet. Masset, the kid acquired from the Chisox may be the best bet of the group to be ready for a prime time role in the pen but if all the veterans are let go, then the bet is on this group to carry the pen to Burton and Cordero. I just don't think they are ready to do that yet. I'd hate to bet a whole season on it.

Topcat
10-13-2008, 03:15 AM
Affeldts a known commodity in the Red's hitters park. You know what you're getting. You sign him and do it now!

SMcGavin
10-13-2008, 04:52 PM
they are going to be relying on Bray, a struggling lefty who hasn't found the key to unlocking the ability in his arm yet

Bill Bray is good. Maybe if I say it enough, people will go look at his numbers and believe me.

RedsManRick
10-13-2008, 07:16 PM
Bray's strikeout rate is superb and the HR rate is solid. But the hit rate was mediocre (that high LD% can be read as either a red flag that he's hittable or a sign of variation working against him -- but it wasn't the defense's fault) and the walk rate was the bottom end of acceptable.

If he wants to sustain the ERA he put up, he's going to have to allow fewer base runners next year. However, if he can bring that walk rate down without getting killed in the zone (the Matt Belisle conundrum), he's got an outside shot at going from effective to dominant. He actually profiles as a Cordero-lite. Not too many pitchers are as reliant on a slider as Bray is. He just doesn't have the heat that the elite FB/SL relievers do (Lidge, Wagner, Cordero, Nathan, Broxton). As of now, he's more the Michael Wuertz or Luis Vizcaino type.

Mario-Rijo
10-14-2008, 10:32 AM
Bill Bray is good. Maybe if I say it enough, people will go look at his numbers and believe me.

Bray is good but inconsistent. This is due to his herky-jerky motion. Days when he has less jerk he's on point with that FB on the outside corner to LHH's which in turn allows his slider to be more effective because he doesn't have to throw it for strikes. And the "jerk" also sometimes takes his inside pitch to RHH's and leaves it out over the plate allowing them to slug for a higher % against him. Problem is you take away his herky jerky motion and he loses some deception. And I believe they have smoothed him out some already.

I'd rather him lose some of the deception frankly but there is a risk in trying to change him further I suppose.

OnBaseMachine
10-27-2008, 02:42 PM
Free Agent Bargain: Jeremy Affeldt
by Dave Cameron - 10/27/2008 - Comments (6)

As we head towards free agency, the focus is always on the big name guys - who is going to sign Mark Teixeira or CC Sabathia? Which team is going to give Manny Ramirez a deal that pays him into his 40s? What kind of contracts will older-but-still-effective guys like Randy Johnson and Jamie Moyer get?

But every year, there's always a guy signs as something of an afterthought and turns into an important player, with the rest of baseball looking back and wondering why they weren't more interested when he was available. This week, we'll profile a group of players that should pay nice dividends for the team that recognizes that they're worth more than they're going to get this winter.

Starting off, let's take a look at one of the more underrated pitchers in the game - Jeremy Affeldt.

A former top prospect as a starter, Affeldt didn't live up to expectations in Kansas City and has bounced around the bullpens of the Royals, Rockies, and in 2008, the Reds. His career has seen him struggle with command problems, and as such, he'd never been trusted with any kind of meaningful role.

However, in 2008, he took a pretty big step forward. His average fastball velocity went from 92.3 MPH a year ago to 94.6 MPH, and his CB saw a similar improvement (going from 76.9 to 79.1). Adding several ticks to both pitches moves him into the power pitcher category, and it showed in his results.

His swinging strike rate (data from statcorner.com) jumped from 7.6% last year to 10.8% this year, putting him in the company of guys like Grant Balfour, Joakim Soria, and Kerry Wood. The swinging strikes translated directly to his strikeout rate, which jumped to 9.19 K/9. More swings and misses means less called balls as well, and Affeldt significantly improved his walk rate as well, down to a respectable 2.87 BB/9.

In a lot of cases, a pitcher will add velocity by switching to a four seam fastball and pitching up in the zone, but that's not the case here - Affeldt continued to pitch down in the zone, posting a career high 54.4% GB%. Because he keeps the ball down, he was able to sustain a fairly low HR rate even though his HR/FB went through the roof (as it can with every reliever, thanks to the small yearly sample of batters and its variance).

Based on 2008, Affeldt has shown an entirely new skillset as compared to his major league career, adding a couple of ticks to both his fastball and curve, which have transformed him into one of the game's best left-handed relievers. Because his curve is a legitimate second pitch, he shows almost no platoon split, and is equally effective against both LHB and RHBs. His stuff is clearly closer-worthy, and while he has no experience as the 9th inning guy, some smart team would be wise to give him a two or three year contract for setup man money and watch him blossom into one of the game's best relief aces.

There's a good case to be made that Jeremy Affeldt is the best reliever available this winter, while most of baseball has no idea who he is.

http://www.fangraphs.com/

BRM
10-27-2008, 02:46 PM
I'm completely on board the Affeldt bandwagon. I'd definitely like to see Walt sign him.

OnBaseMachine
10-27-2008, 02:59 PM
I'm completely on board the Affeldt bandwagon. I'd definitely like to see Walt sign him.

Same here. I'd even do a three year deal.

Will M
10-27-2008, 03:17 PM
Same here. I'd even do a three year deal.

me too.

BRM
10-27-2008, 03:18 PM
Same here. I'd even do a three year deal.

What if he says he'll only sign if Bako stays? ;)

nate
10-27-2008, 03:35 PM
What if he says he'll only sign if Bako stays? ;)

I'd get him in to see Doc Creamcheese for a Bakoectemy, ASAP.

BRM
10-27-2008, 03:59 PM
I just know OBM won't be nearly as entertaining in the game threads next year without Bako and Patterson on the squad. Maybe Valentin will get 80-90 starts next year to pick up the slack.

Raisor
10-27-2008, 04:09 PM
. Maybe Valentin will get 80-90 starts next year to pick up the slack.



At third base!

SELF HIGH FIVE!

Highlifeman21
10-27-2008, 04:34 PM
At third base!

SELF HIGH FIVE!

Since when did Raisor turn into The Todd?

jojo
10-27-2008, 04:40 PM
Free Agent Bargain: Jeremy Affeldt
by Dave Cameron - 10/27/2008 - Comments (6)

As we head towards free agency, the focus is always on the big name guys - who is going to sign Mark Teixeira or CC Sabathia? Which team is going to give Manny Ramirez a deal that pays him into his 40s? What kind of contracts will older-but-still-effective guys like Randy Johnson and Jamie Moyer get?

But every year, there's always a guy signs as something of an afterthought and turns into an important player, with the rest of baseball looking back and wondering why they weren't more interested when he was available. This week, we'll profile a group of players that should pay nice dividends for the team that recognizes that they're worth more than they're going to get this winter.

Starting off, let's take a look at one of the more underrated pitchers in the game - Jeremy Affeldt.

A former top prospect as a starter, Affeldt didn't live up to expectations in Kansas City and has bounced around the bullpens of the Royals, Rockies, and in 2008, the Reds. His career has seen him struggle with command problems, and as such, he'd never been trusted with any kind of meaningful role.

However, in 2008, he took a pretty big step forward. His average fastball velocity went from 92.3 MPH a year ago to 94.6 MPH, and his CB saw a similar improvement (going from 76.9 to 79.1). Adding several ticks to both pitches moves him into the power pitcher category, and it showed in his results.

His swinging strike rate (data from statcorner.com) jumped from 7.6% last year to 10.8% this year, putting him in the company of guys like Grant Balfour, Joakim Soria, and Kerry Wood. The swinging strikes translated directly to his strikeout rate, which jumped to 9.19 K/9. More swings and misses means less called balls as well, and Affeldt significantly improved his walk rate as well, down to a respectable 2.87 BB/9.

In a lot of cases, a pitcher will add velocity by switching to a four seam fastball and pitching up in the zone, but that's not the case here - Affeldt continued to pitch down in the zone, posting a career high 54.4% GB%. Because he keeps the ball down, he was able to sustain a fairly low HR rate even though his HR/FB went through the roof (as it can with every reliever, thanks to the small yearly sample of batters and its variance).

Based on 2008, Affeldt has shown an entirely new skillset as compared to his major league career, adding a couple of ticks to both his fastball and curve, which have transformed him into one of the game's best left-handed relievers. Because his curve is a legitimate second pitch, he shows almost no platoon split, and is equally effective against both LHB and RHBs. His stuff is clearly closer-worthy, and while he has no experience as the 9th inning guy, some smart team would be wise to give him a two or three year contract for setup man money and watch him blossom into one of the game's best relief aces.

There's a good case to be made that Jeremy Affeldt is the best reliever available this winter, while most of baseball has no idea who he is.

http://www.fangraphs.com/

Dave is erring on the side of hyperbole on this one I think but Affeldt has reinvented himself as a short arm and being a lefty he might be able to milk pen duties for another ten years.

edabbs44
10-27-2008, 06:47 PM
For me it would depend on the comp. What's the draft pick status on this guy?

New Fever
10-27-2008, 07:19 PM
For me it would depend on the comp. What's the draft pick status on this guy?

The guy that predicts the Elias ranking has Affeldt as the top Type B relief pitcher in the NL. He also says that his rankings can be slightly off sometimes so, Affeldt could indeed be a Type A free agent.

edabbs44
10-27-2008, 07:59 PM
The guy that predicts the Elias ranking has Affeldt as the top Type B relief pitcher in the NL. He also says that his rankings can be slightly off sometimes so, Affeldt could indeed be a Type A free agent.

Type A? Say bye bye.

Take the picks and run.

Spring~Fields
10-27-2008, 08:18 PM
Type A? Say bye bye.

Take the picks and run.

I wish that the Reds could afford Cruz from Arizona and Beimel from the Dodgers. I am fixated that they would be good additions to the bullpen. I suppose they will sign elsewhere and cost too much anyway.

Juan Cruz
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?playerId=4838

Joe Beimel
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?playerId=4632

Does anyone think that Mr. Jocketty might fill the relief core from the minor league guys Fisher, Roenicke, Herrera, or other?