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Benihana
07-12-2008, 10:17 PM
Is it time to start taking this guy seriously? After tonight's 4 hit performance, I'm starting to think that maybe he should be factored into this team's future. I mean this guy has done everything well all season, and is doing his best Keppinger-impersonation by forcing me to believe in him every time he comes to the plate, no matter how skeptical I may be. I mean, the guy plays almost every position and is now hitting .349 and OPSing near .900.

Hairston was at one point considered a pretty good prospect coming up with Baltimore. Could it be that he has finally found himself and has truly blossomed into a very good major leaguer? Or is he just riding an impressively long hot streak? What are your thoughts?

max venable
07-12-2008, 10:19 PM
I love the guy. He could either be an important cog for the Reds over the next couple years or excellent trade bait over the next couple weeks.

HokieRed
07-12-2008, 10:20 PM
I was going to post something just like the above. I've always been very skeptical of Hairston and have just been waiting for him to start regressing toward his norms. But it is starting to get to the point where it's harder to see how we just let him walk after the season.

redsrule2500
07-12-2008, 10:29 PM
WOW.

12 games over .500 with Jerry in the lineup. AMAZING.

per Thom/Chris

corkedbat
07-12-2008, 10:30 PM
T. Brennaman just said that the Reds are 12 games over .500 with Hairston in the lineup this year

redsrule2500
07-12-2008, 10:31 PM
Kinda makes you think about how Dusty's love affair with Patterson has hurt this team.

MasonBuzz3
07-12-2008, 10:33 PM
Kinda makes you think about how Dusty's love affair with Patterson has hurt this team.
in the same boat, the only reason Hairston is here is Dusty

redsrule2500
07-12-2008, 10:35 PM
in the same boat, the only reason Hairston is here is Dusty

Didn't say that wasn't the reason he was here. But he deserves to play!

I see a good month where Patterson was played and didn't deserve it.

Falls City Beer
07-12-2008, 10:36 PM
in the same boat, the only reason Hairston is here is Dusty

Exactly. Dusty gets hustle from guys he puts faith in. Patterson has few natural skills, but I know he is hustling for his manager, as is Hairston.

MWM
07-12-2008, 10:38 PM
He's played 870 games and has had almost 3000 career ABs. His line looks like: .258/.328/.364. That's a career OPS of .692.

He's 32 years old. Guys don't just discover how to hit at 32 years old. I wouldn't use 55 games this season to decide that he's a part of the future. I love what he's done and he's definitely been good (offensively) this year, but he's had enough ABs over his career to tell us who he is as a ballplayer. He's having a nice first half of the season, nothing more, IMO.

Falls City Beer
07-12-2008, 10:41 PM
He's played 870 games and has had almost 3000 career ABs. His line looks like: .258/.328/.364. That's a career OPS of .692.

He's 32 years old. Guys don't just discover how to hit at 32 years old. I wouldn't use 55 games this season to decide that he's a part of the future. I love what he's done and he's definitely been good (offensively) this year, but he's had enough ABs over his career to tell us who he is as a ballplayer. He's having a nice first half of the season, nothing more, IMO.

No doubt. Don't extend the guy. But world champions are made from career years. Gotta find 'em often.

HumnHilghtFreel
07-12-2008, 10:42 PM
This has all the makings of "career year," but I can't help but want to see him in a Reds uniform next year.

If nothing else, he makes Freel extremely expendable. Sign me up for another year of JHJ if it can be had at a reasonable price.

flyer85
07-12-2008, 10:42 PM
Is it time to start taking this guy seriously? nope ... just a 30 something utility guy having a career year. Just ride the wave but don't expect it be repeated in the future.

Stormy
07-12-2008, 10:42 PM
Dusty deserves great credit for going to, and staying with, a hot Jerry Hairston Jr. This is one of those situations where Dusty's "instinctual" management has served him well, whereas a numbers based approach would never have afforded a guy like Hairston an opportunity in the #1 spot. He see's a guy he trusts with a hot hand, and he sticks with it, and it's paid off in spades. Probably not a long-term answer to anything, but definitely a catalyst for the recent offensive improvement (along with Dunn's huge surge).

After finally becoming disenchanted with Patterson, Dusty has actually been fairly proactive in trying **potentially** productive combos at the top of the order (Hairston, Keppinger/Bruce etc..., which was the polar opposite of the horrid Patterson, Janish, Freel, Hopper detritus we for forced to endure earlier in the year).

BuckeyeRedleg
07-12-2008, 10:47 PM
He's played 870 games and has had almost 3000 career ABs. His line looks like: .258/.328/.364. That's a career OPS of .692.

He's 32 years old. Guys don't just discover how to hit at 32 years old. I wouldn't use 55 games this season to decide that he's a part of the future. I love what he's done and he's definitely been good (offensively) this year, but he's had enough ABs over his career to tell us who he is as a ballplayer. He's having a nice first half of the season, nothing more, IMO.


What he said.

MasonBuzz3
07-12-2008, 10:50 PM
with the Cards losing tonight, the Reds sit just 6 GB of the wild card...sort of makes you wonder if Hairston hadn't broke his thumb

osuceltic
07-12-2008, 10:51 PM
Kinda makes you think about how Dusty's love affair with Patterson has hurt this team.

I think Cutler said today that the Reds are 20-19 with Patterson starting in CF. He's not the reason for that, but they have a worse record with him out of the lineup.

Tony Cloninger
07-12-2008, 11:11 PM
He had very good numbers in 04....and okay numbers in 05.

When healthy....he is not a bad option as a utility guy at all. Just do not over do it....just like Freel...but i think Hairston has been better, even on Freel's best days.

Wheelhouse
07-12-2008, 11:22 PM
Hairston is a very good, well-rounded baseball player--when Dunn and Griffey go next year (or earlier) he'll be critical. Start him. Sign him LT for my money.

BuckeyeRedleg
07-12-2008, 11:23 PM
His numbers in 2007 mirror Patterson's numbers this year.

He was that bad. Maybe he was still hurt.

There is no doubt he has been a blessing for this team, but I wouldn't sign him long-term.

redsrule2500
07-12-2008, 11:28 PM
I think Cutler said today that the Reds are 20-19 with Patterson starting in CF. He's not the reason for that, but they have a worse record with him out of the lineup.

So, where do they lose?

MWM
07-12-2008, 11:30 PM
Hairston is a very good, well-rounded baseball player--when Dunn and Griffey go next year (or earlier) he'll be critical. Start him. Sign him LT for my money.

Sign himlong-term based on 55 games when his career is almost 900 games? Seriously?

redsrule2500
07-12-2008, 11:32 PM
Sign himlong-term based on 55 games when his career is almost 900 games? Seriously?

Could he come cheap?

Wheelhouse
07-12-2008, 11:48 PM
Sign himlong-term based on 55 games when his career is almost 900 games? Seriously?

He was hurt the last two years so I wouldn't dump a bundle on him, but he's a good guy to have on the team--especialy to influence young guys like Bruce...

fearofpopvol1
07-12-2008, 11:57 PM
If Hairston will come cheap, I see no problem with having him as a bench player beyond 2008. He does seem to have a positive influence, plays hard, does the little things. I do think he's having a career year, but again, if he'll come cheap, I have no problem with him being part of the bench. I would not pencil him in full-time at any position next year, however.

Wheelhouse
07-13-2008, 12:18 AM
He's played 870 games and has had almost 3000 career ABs. His line looks like: .258/.328/.364. That's a career OPS of .692.

He's 32 years old. Guys don't just discover how to hit at 32 years old. I wouldn't use 55 games this season to decide that he's a part of the future. I love what he's done and he's definitely been good (offensively) this year, but he's had enough ABs over his career to tell us who he is as a ballplayer. He's having a nice first half of the season, nothing more, IMO.

Run the numbers without 06 and 07 when he says he was playing hurt. He is an EXCELLENT hitter and learned it a while back.

*BaseClogger*
07-13-2008, 12:25 AM
Run the numbers without 06 and 07 when he says he was playing hurt. He is an EXCELLENT hitter and learned it a while back.

You mean when he put up OSP+'s of 91, 87, 75, 92, 93, 105, and 82? I guess I could tolerate him as a utility guy but nothing more than a one year contract. He can play a lot of positions but no one position above-average defensively. Don't make the same mistake (Freel) twice...

Caseyfan21
07-13-2008, 12:30 AM
As much as I want to hate him and I want Kepp/Bruce/whoever to play, the guy is flat out playing this year. He's getting clutch hits, he's doing the little things that no one else seems to do, and he's getting on base and making things happen. I am in the club that thinks this is simply a career year but I also think so far he has proved valuable to the club and should be kept around. I don't think he will be a long term solution but if he does keep up his great year I would like to bring him back as a bench/utility player next year.

Wheelhouse
07-13-2008, 01:08 AM
You mean when he put up OSP+'s of 91, 87, 75, 92, 93, 105, and 82? I guess I could tolerate him as a utility guy but nothing more than a one year contract. He can play a lot of positions but no one position above-average defensively. Don't make the same mistake (Freel) twice...

Understood--I do think Hairston differs from Freel in two important ways: he's a little better athlete and he doesn't make stupid mistakes.

Reds1
07-13-2008, 01:14 AM
Love looking at old threads. I started this long ago and pretty much no one liked him. I have to admit that I saw something in him and even if is a bust the rest of the year - which he won't - he's actually put the reds in a position to consider being buyers and not sellers. Check out!

http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=68000&highlight=hairston

Caveat Emperor
07-13-2008, 05:51 AM
Run the numbers without 06 and 07 when he says he was playing hurt. He is an EXCELLENT hitter and learned it a while back.

Even without '06 and '07, he's still generously a mediocre ballplayer. Good bench fodder and great to have around when he goes all career-year on you (like he's doing right now).

Let someone else overpay to see him regress back to a ~.260 hitter with a ~.700 OPS.

GAC
07-13-2008, 08:17 AM
He's played 870 games and has had almost 3000 career ABs. His line looks like: .258/.328/.364. That's a career OPS of .692.

He's 32 years old. Guys don't just discover how to hit at 32 years old. I wouldn't use 55 games this season to decide that he's a part of the future. I love what he's done and he's definitely been good (offensively) this year, but he's had enough ABs over his career to tell us who he is as a ballplayer. He's having a nice first half of the season, nothing more, IMO.

:thumbup: :thumbup: :thumbup:


Could he come cheap?

He has the years of service to be arb eligible. And looking at the career year he is having that could be a decent raise for a guy who has been below average a vast majority of his career.

SELL HIGH!

Kc61
07-13-2008, 08:27 AM
Reds would be nuts to trade Hairston now. It would be like saying to the fans, we're playing pretty well now but we've decided this season is meaningless so we're punting to the future. That's not the way to be a competitive franchise and it won't happen.

There are late blooming players throughout sports. Guys who figure things out later in their careers. As Hairston's OBP approaches .400, it's hard to consider him a fluke. He's a talented player who hits to all fields, doesn't overswing, makes contact, and plays hard.

camisadelgolf
07-13-2008, 08:40 AM
This is a bandwagon I can't quite get on. Don't get me wrong--I've loved watching him play, and he's played much better than almost all of the Reds players. I just think his regression will be severe and come soon.

He's someone I'd love to have on my bench. He has speed, consistently makes contact, and can play all the 3-9 positions. He's the perfect small ball player.

However, his 2008 OPS is about .200 higher than his career norms. As much as I like the guy, over the course of an entire season, he's not going to OPS just a few points less than Josh Hamilton (which he's currently doing). He's 32 years old and plays aggressively, and on top of that, he's been known to use HGH. I really have my doubts about his ability to maintain his health.

With possibly Adam Dunn and Ken Griffey, Jr. being gone next year, I'd be looking to add power to the 25-man roster. The Reds already have Jeff Keppinger; plus Alex Gonzalez will come back next year. If needed, they also have Paul Janish, and who knows--maybe Brandon Phillips can switch to shortstop.

Hairston has been nothing short of great, but I'd feel more comfortable with Ryan Freel having his role over a longer period of time. Freel has more patience at the plate, more speed, and more power. Defensively, I even prefer Freel (except at second base, but with Phillips on the squad, that's not very important).

GAC
07-13-2008, 08:48 AM
Run the numbers without 06 and 07 when he says he was playing hurt. He is an EXCELLENT hitter and learned it a while back.

EXCELLENT?

First off.... you mention a very viable point about Hairston.... injury. The guy spends a lot of time on the DL. He has already had one stint with the Reds this year. He has a chronic bad back.

But lets look at his numbers pre-2005/2006 (when he was hurt). He was in his prime age (23-29) from '99 thru 2005. and here are his numbers...

.265 BA .339 OB% .377 SLG% .716 OPS

He has been "experimented" with batting lead off, beginning in 2001. But he has shown very inconsistent production there. Here are his overall lead off numbers from 2001-2005...

.251 BA .334 OB% .376 SLG% .690 OPS

As I mentioned on the other Hairston thread, and as MWM mentioned on this one, a player doesn't hit his prime/stride at age 32.

I would love to have this guy on my bench as a super-sub. But only at a very modest salary.

We do not need two Ryan Freel-type contracts on this team.

Highlifeman21
07-13-2008, 08:52 AM
Hairston is a very good, well-rounded baseball player--when Dunn and Griffey go next year (or earlier) he'll be critical. Start him. Sign him LT for my money.

I really hope the Reds' FO doesn't read what you post, b/c we'll have another Freel on our hands if we sign Hairston to a LTC as you suggest.

Aging player with declining skills having a career year? Check
Reward him for the career year when he's 32, and have him locked up until he's 35 just sounds all kinda bad, IMO.

But on the other hand, when we get rid of Dunn to make you happy, we'll need someone to replace Dunn's massive offensive production, and who better to fill that void than Hairston, right?

The Reds need to stop giving too much money to marginal guys for extended periods of time. I'd hope they learned from Freel's current contract, but if they give Hairston big money for a long time, then of course they'll have learned nothing.

Highlifeman21
07-13-2008, 08:54 AM
He was hurt the last two years so I wouldn't dump a bundle on him, but he's a good guy to have on the team--especialy to influence young guys like Bruce...

Bruce needs a mentor/influence like Hairston like a recovering alcoholic needs a case of beer...

Hairston is a better, yet older version of Freel, but that doesn't mean we need to fall in love with him and build the team around him. He's a role/complimentary player, that's it. To mistake him as a starter is pure folly.

Wheelhouse
07-13-2008, 09:11 AM
Bruce needs a mentor/influence like Hairston like a recovering alcoholic needs a case of beer...

Hairston is a better, yet older version of Freel, but that doesn't mean we need to fall in love with him and build the team around him. He's a role/complimentary player, that's it. To mistake him as a starter is pure folly.

No one is suggesting the team be built around him--he's a very good player and a good influence who should be retained. Re: Bruce--let's just say I'm happy there's an option other than the "just have fun" Dunn/Griffey model to look to.

mth123
07-13-2008, 09:13 AM
I don't see Hairston making big bucks in arbitration. He'll make less than $2 Million in 2009. I see no reason for a long term deal, but really no reason to dump him either. Keep him around, offer arb if it comes to it, and try to hammer out a reasonable 1 year deal with some incentives and try like heck to dump Freel on somebody. Hairston becomes a nice role playing insurance policy who will need to win playing time in 2009. In the meantime the Reds are looking to bring in young near ready guys for CF and SS who they hope win those spots. If they show they aren't ready yet, Hairston is a nice plan B.

For the record, I don't think he's this good, but I do think he's better than the 2006 and 2007 stats show (and the career stats as a result). Back injuries can really drag down performance and to my knowledge he hasn't had an issue this year with his back.

GAC
07-13-2008, 09:15 AM
Reds would be nuts to trade Hairston now. It would be like saying to the fans, we're playing pretty well now but we've decided this season is meaningless so we're punting to the future. That's not the way to be a competitive franchise and it won't happen.

But fans, for the most part are very fickled, and also very superficial in their overall evaluation of players. What I mean is they only look at the NOW, what a player is currently doing, without taking into consideration what they have done over the course of their career.

Example....I can remember how many were saying how much they loved Ryan Freel because of his hustle, and that those are the type of ballplayers we need on this team.

Now many are lamenting that contract and saying it was a mistake.

And these same fans are the ones who say they love going down to the ballpark and see a Ken Griffey Jr; but will say we need to trade an Adam Dunn because he strikes out too much.

How many were upset over us trading Hamilton for this prospect named Volquez, and said it was a HUGE mistake?

Many examples can be shown over the course of the last several years here in Cincy where fan "exhuberance" over a player(s) turned sour.

And if this FO signs Hairston to a LTC (like a Freel), and this guy regresses next year, or ends up on the DL, where his contribution is not at the level we are seeing now, then those same fans will not only turn on Hairston, but will be going after this FO too for making another huge blunder.

So in that sense, this FO needs to ignore what fans may be saying/thinking, when it comes to a player like Hairston, and do what is right to turn this organization around. And that even means, if possible, being able to turn over a player like Hairston into something more.

This FO... from Castellini, Walt, on down, need to minimize the mistakes when it comes to handing out bad player contracts.


There are late blooming players throughout sports. Guys who figure things out later in their careers. As Hairston's OBP approaches .400, it's hard to consider him a fluke. He's a talented player who hits to all fields, doesn't overswing, makes contact, and plays hard.

Again.... look at his overall career numbers. Not once has he ever came close, in 9 years in the majors, of consistently putting up those types of numbers.

Can you give me examples, in MLB, of guys who were late bloomers in their 30s?

Highlifeman21
07-13-2008, 09:16 AM
No one is suggesting the team be built around him--he's a very good player and a good influence who should be retained. Re: Bruce--let's just say I'm happy there's an option other than the "just have fun" Dunn/Griffey model to look to.

Absolute myth.

Jerry Hairston, Jr. is not a "very good player". Until you can admit that, there's no point in listening to any manlove you have for him.

And yeah, I'd really hate for Bruce to learn from a future 1st ballot HOF, and the Reds' biggest offensive force since 2002.... horrible role models for our young star....

Wheelhouse
07-13-2008, 09:19 AM
I really hope the Reds' FO doesn't read what you post, b/c we'll have another Freel on our hands if we sign Hairston to a LTC as you suggest.

Aging player with declining skills having a career year? Check
Reward him for the career year when he's 32, and have him locked up until he's 35 just sounds all kinda bad, IMO.

But on the other hand, when we get rid of Dunn to make you happy, we'll need someone to replace Dunn's massive offensive production, and who better to fill that void than Hairston, right?

The Reds need to stop giving too much money to marginal guys for extended periods of time. I'd hope they learned from Freel's current contract, but if they give Hairston big money for a long time, then of course they'll have learned nothing.

Bizarre how some Reds fans constantly make these associations that make no sense: Volquez=Jack Armstrong, Hairston=Freel... Hairston has an extremely level head and oodles of baseball smarts, which Freel does not. Freel, though fast, is a BAD baserunner. Hairston is an EXCELLENT baserunner. Hairston plays IF better, and takes better routes in the OF than Freel. Freel has the edge in catching up to certain fly balls. Hairston's arm is stronger and more accurate. And finally, I have a feeling Hairston is not the type of guy to get caught up in numerous brushes with the law do to alcohol, a la Freel. If what you mean is that both Freel and Hairston are both leadoff hitters, then you may have a point.

GAC
07-13-2008, 09:20 AM
Back injuries can really drag down performance and to my knowledge he hasn't had an issue this year with his back.

His back problems are chronic. At least that was mentioned last week during the Cubs series when he hit the 1B bag wrong, came up somewhat gimpy and was favoring the back. They then showed him, later on, a few times during the course of the game, in the OF, trying to stretch the back and keep it from cramping up.

Wheelhouse
07-13-2008, 09:22 AM
Absolute myth.

Jerry Hairston, Jr. is not a "very good player". Until you can admit that, there's no point in listening to any manlove you have for him.

And yeah, I'd really hate for Bruce to learn from a future 1st ballot HOF, and the Reds' biggest offensive force since 2002.... horrible role models for our young star....

Yep. They are not good models for young players. Childish approach to the game. When the team is rid of them you will see better baseball, mark my words.

Wheelhouse
07-13-2008, 09:27 AM
EXCELLENT?

First off.... you mention a very viable point about Hairston.... injury. The guy spends a lot of time on the DL. He has already had one stint with the Reds this year. He has a chronic bad back.

But lets look at his numbers pre-2005/2006 (when he was hurt). He was in his prime age (23-29) from '99 thru 2005. and here are his numbers...

.265 BA .339 OB% .377 SLG% .716 OPS

He has been "experimented" with batting lead off, beginning in 2001. But he has shown very inconsistent production there. Here are his overall lead off numbers from 2001-2005...

.251 BA .334 OB% .376 SLG% .690 OPS

As I mentioned on the other Hairston thread, and as MWM mentioned on this one, a player doesn't hit his prime/stride at age 32.

I would love to have this guy on my bench as a super-sub. But only at a very modest salary.

We do not need two Ryan Freel-type contracts on this team.

That's all I'm suggesting. However at those stretches of 95 games when he hits .344, I'd give him a look as a starter.

GAC
07-13-2008, 09:31 AM
If what you mean is that both Freel and Hairston are both leadoff hitters, then you may have a point.

Look... I think an overwhelming majority of us on here would have no problem with the Red's FO trying to retain Hairston next year. We really have no other viable solutions at lead off right now, unless it might be a Keppinger.

The issue is money.

He is making $500,000 this year. I'd have no problem with them doubling his salary and taking on a team option for 2010 that maybe is performance based.

But anything more then that is a huge gamble and waste IMO.

pahster
07-13-2008, 09:35 AM
Yep. They are not good models for young players. Childish approach to the game. When the team is rid of them you will see better baseball, mark my words.

"Childish?"

Career AVG/OBP.SLG/OPS+
Griffey: .288/.373/.548/139
Dunn: .247/.381/.521/131

If that's childish, I'll take a team of toddlers, please. The "mature" Hairston has put up a career line of .260/.329/.367/84. That's a bad line, no way around it. Hairston's not a good player and never has been.

Razor Shines
07-13-2008, 09:45 AM
As much as I want to hate him and I want Kepp/Bruce/whoever to play, the guy is flat out playing this year. He's getting clutch hits, he's doing the little things that no one else seems to do, and he's getting on base and making things happen. I am in the club that thinks this is simply a career year but I also think so far he has proved valuable to the club and should be kept around. I don't think he will be a long term solution but if he does keep up his great year I would like to bring him back as a bench/utility player next year.

Why do you want to hate him? I don't think that any of us who argue against him hate him or want to hate him. I'm thrilled that he's having a career year. I hope the Reds ride the wave for as long as it lasts and maybe get a nice offer for him. I just think that after a year like this he's going to want to get paid next year and someone will be willing to pay him, I just hope it's not the Reds.

Razor Shines
07-13-2008, 09:46 AM
"Childish?"

Career AVG/OBP.SLG/OPS+
Griffey: .288/.373/.548/139
Dunn: .247/.381/.521/131

If that's childish, I'll take a team of toddlers, please. The "mature" Hairston has put up a career line of .260/.329/.367/84. That's a bad line, no way around it. Hairston's not a good player and never has been.

Walks are childish, get up there and swing at everything like an adult!

Wheelhouse
07-13-2008, 09:52 AM
Why do you want to hate him? I don't think that any of us who argue against him hate him or want to hate him. I'm thrilled that he's having a career year. I hope the Reds ride the wave for as long as it lasts and maybe get a nice offer for him. I just think that after a year like this he's going to want to get paid next year and someone will be willing to pay him, I just hope it's not the Reds.

Because he's hasn't displayed the numerical trends the poster would like?

Raisor
07-13-2008, 10:06 AM
Yep. They are not good models for young players. Childish approach to the game. When the team is rid of them you will see better baseball, mark my words.

bollox

What's funny is that you were super pro Dunn at the end of last year.

The only reason I'd be happy to see Dunn go is that I won't have to read crap like this as much.

camisadelgolf
07-13-2008, 11:08 AM
Can you give me examples, in MLB, of guys who were late bloomers in their 30s?

I could, but they all got busted for HGH, too. :D

Degenerate39
07-13-2008, 11:19 AM
I would give Hairston a contract for next year but it would be cheap. So far this year Haiston has been an important player for the Reds but can he do it again after this year? I don't know. I think it's worth a shot. But by no means would I just hand him a starting job next year.

Next year could look like:
C- Bako and Ross most likely
1st- Votto
2nd- Phillips
SS- Gonzo and Kepp
3rd- Edwin?
LF- Dunn?
CF- ?
RF- Bruce

Gonzo will be back and he is a solid defensive man. I would probably try to trade Edwin for some decent prospects and move Keppinger to 3rd. Then if Hairston is a stud like he's been this year you can put him at SS and still have Kepp at 3rd base. That way you get your two contact hitters in the lineup every day.

Or they could keep Edwin and try Hairston in center.

C- Bako or Ross
1st- Votto
2nd- Phillips
SS- Gonzo or Keppinger
3rd- Edwin
LF- Dunn?
CF- Hairston
RF- Bruce

Always Red
07-13-2008, 11:20 AM
A good team would have Hairston (and Keppinger for that matter, too) as a strong bench player, a guy that you can count on to make your team more versatile, fill in where needed, pinch run or play defense late in games. A smart player- and as mentioned above, an excellent baserunner.

Not as a starter. Not batting lead-off. A 2 year contract and counting on him for anything more than bench strength would be foolish; it's not what winning teams do.

I tip my cap to Hairston- he's been a lot of fun to watch this year and he's playing the best baseball of his life right now. By all means, sign him up for a one year extension, but do not promise him a starting spot, and do tell him he'll be playing wherever they need him to be- just like this year.

JH is playing well because he feels good for the first time in at least 3 years. He's not getting any younger, and his back problems have been chronic. They absolutely will be a problem for him again in the future. The Reds need to protect themselves to be sure it's not their problem as well.

nate
07-13-2008, 11:50 AM
I want the Reds to sign players who make Hairston the first, best option off the bench.

RedlegJake
07-13-2008, 01:09 PM
Yep. They are not good models for young players. Childish approach to the game. When the team is rid of them you will see better baseball, mark my words.

Not very often someone posts something that really makes me want to call them out but that does. That's all I'll say but I agree with Raisor. The only good I see in losing Dunn will be losing the kind of posts quoted here. Losing Dunn won't help the Reds but it might make Redszone easier to read sometimes.

cincrazy
07-13-2008, 01:14 PM
"Childish?"

Career AVG/OBP.SLG/OPS+
Griffey: .288/.373/.548/139
Dunn: .247/.381/.521/131

If that's childish, I'll take a team of toddlers, please. The "mature" Hairston has put up a career line of .260/.329/.367/84. That's a bad line, no way around it. Hairston's not a good player and never has been.

I don't think it's fair to say that. He's having a good season, and is a GOOD player, right here, right now. We should do nothing foolish in terms of money, but IMO he should certainly be re-signed. Maybe Hairston just got a clean slate here in Cincy? Steroid mess over with, injuries seemingly over with. He's just going out and playing. It's fair to point to his past and say we shouldn't go overboard in extending him. But it's not fair to point to his past and act as if it's an absolute certainy that he's junk, because he's been a valuable member of this team from the get go.

pahster
07-13-2008, 01:41 PM
I don't think it's fair to say that. He's having a good season, and is a GOOD player, right here, right now. We should do nothing foolish in terms of money, but IMO he should certainly be re-signed. Maybe Hairston just got a clean slate here in Cincy? Steroid mess over with, injuries seemingly over with. He's just going out and playing. It's fair to point to his past and say we shouldn't go overboard in extending him. But it's not fair to point to his past and act as if it's an absolute certainy that he's junk, because he's been a valuable member of this team from the get go.

We have 10 years of data showing Hairston to be a poor player. He's had a great first half, but do you think that he's going to continue? Do you think he'll do it again next year? I don't. Frankly, I think the idea (and I know it's not yours, but it is what I was responding to) that Hairston is going to be able to fill Dunn's shoes at the plate next year is wholly irrational. Heck, I'd be surprised if he could duplicate or beat Griffey's 2008 next year. The notion that Hairston is going to be able to replace either of these players is silly.

4256 Hits
07-13-2008, 02:18 PM
This is like the threads back in early May about Bako but of course he has returned to his career norms (has OPS around .500 last couple months) and they have stopped. When JHJ returns to his career norms (which will happen) these threads on him will also stop.

RedsManRick
07-13-2008, 02:35 PM
Extending players like Jerry Hairston instead of flipping them for a prospect is precisely the kind of move bad organizations make.

Players, especially hitters, don't turn a corner 12 years in to their careers. 2600 Pre-08 AB > 180 AB in 2008. Hairston has a .392 BABIP due to a 29.7 LD%. Either Hairston has become Ted Williams, or we're seeing a guy enjoying a great hot streak who's poised for a massive crash.

Reds/Flyers Fan
07-13-2008, 02:55 PM
Anyone know the extent of Hairston's injury today? What a terrible break for the Reds right now

flyer85
07-13-2008, 03:03 PM
too bad ... disappointing

mbgrayson
07-13-2008, 05:32 PM
Anyone know the extent of Hairston's injury today? What a terrible break for the Reds right now

Per Fay:


Jerry Hairston Jr. suffered a right hamstring strain. He'll be re-evaluated Monday by Dr. Tim Kremchek. The examinatino will include an MRI.

Sea Ray
07-13-2008, 06:05 PM
It looks to be a serious hamstring pull. The issue with Hairston--like Freel-- is can he stay healthy? Looks like we can't expect him to stay healthy enough to ever be counted on as a starter and that's too bad.

Stormy
07-13-2008, 07:08 PM
bollox

What's funny is that you were super pro Dunn at the end of last year.

The only reason I'd be happy to see Dunn go is that I won't have to read crap like this as much.

:thumbup: :thumbup: :thumbup: :beerme:

Big Klu
07-13-2008, 07:49 PM
We have 10 years of data showing Hairston to be a poor player. He's had a great first half, but do you think that he's going to continue? Do you think he'll do it again next year? I don't. Frankly, I think the idea (and I know it's not yours, but it is what I was responding to) that Hairston is going to be able to fill Dunn's shoes at the plate next year is wholly irrational. Heck, I'd be surprised if he could duplicate or beat Griffey's 2008 next year. The notion that Hairston is going to be able to replace either of these players is silly.

I would submit that truly poor players don't compile ten years of data. Do I think that Hairston is a starter-quality player? No, I think he is best suited as a backup utility player (as is Freel). But I also believe in playing the hot hand.

As for Hairston's strained hamstring, what an unfortunate break--both for him and the club. Even if it is not serious, I have to think he will be making a trip to the disabled list. I figure that Paul Janish would be the most likely candidate to replace him on the roster, unless Jolbert Cabrera is ready to come off the DL. Speaking of Jolbert, has anybody heard any updates on him?

camisadelgolf
07-13-2008, 07:57 PM
I would submit that truly poor players don't compile ten years of data. Do I think that Hairston is a starter-quality player? No, I think he is best suited as a backup utility player (as is Freel). But I also believe in playing the hot hand.

As for Hairston's strained hamstring, what an unfortunate break--both for him and the club. Even if it is not serious, I have to think he will be making a trip to the disabled list. I figure that Paul Janish would be the most likely candidate to replace him on the roster, unless Jolbert Cabrera is ready to come off the DL. Speaking of Jolbert, has anybody heard any updates on him?

Jolbert is on a rehab assignment in Dayton.

Highlifeman21
07-13-2008, 08:01 PM
Yep. They are not good models for young players. Childish approach to the game. When the team is rid of them you will see better baseball, mark my words.

Bizarre how some Reds fans constantly make these associations that make no sense: Volquez=Jack Armstrong, Hairston=Freel... Hairston has an extremely level head and oodles of baseball smarts, which Freel does not. Freel, though fast, is a BAD baserunner. Hairston is an EXCELLENT baserunner. Hairston plays IF better, and takes better routes in the OF than Freel. Freel has the edge in catching up to certain fly balls. Hairston's arm is stronger and more accurate. And finally, I have a feeling Hairston is not the type of guy to get caught up in numerous brushes with the law do to alcohol, a la Freel. If what you mean is that both Freel and Hairston are both leadoff hitters, then you may have a point.




I'm convinced that there's no possible way even you believe the crap that you post. You can't honestly believe that Dunn and Griffey are bad for the development at the MLB level for Jay Bruce. If you do, then words escape me...

And as for Volquez = Armstrong or Hairston = Freel, you have to entertain those notions, and cannot easily dismiss them as you do. Volquez could easily have an excellent 1st half and then we'll never get good results from him ever again. I don't think he'll go that route, but it's possible, and you have to entertain the notion.

And as for Hairston = Freel, it's a very real and valid comparison. They are both older supersubs who have zero business starting. Unfortunately, we might do the unthinkable and give Hairston a Freel-esque contract. I'm sorry that you can't see the obvious, yet continue to have a vendetta against Dunn and Griffey. Sad, but true.

CrackerJack
07-13-2008, 08:24 PM
Apparently not a guy you can count on long term, like Freel, and why other teams don't seem too interested in them either I presume.

pahster
07-13-2008, 08:52 PM
I would submit that truly poor players don't compile ten years of data.

Sure they do. Off the top of my head, Juan Castro, Mike Benjamin, and Neifi Perez. Hairston's not as bad as them; that's why I called him "poor" and not "worthless."

cincrazy
07-13-2008, 09:51 PM
We have 10 years of data showing Hairston to be a poor player. He's had a great first half, but do you think that he's going to continue? Do you think he'll do it again next year? I don't. Frankly, I think the idea (and I know it's not yours, but it is what I was responding to) that Hairston is going to be able to fill Dunn's shoes at the plate next year is wholly irrational. Heck, I'd be surprised if he could duplicate or beat Griffey's 2008 next year. The notion that Hairston is going to be able to replace either of these players is silly.

I completely agree with you that he's not going to duplicate Dunn's stats. If we think plugging him in leftfield would be ok, well, that's far from a fact. But he's not a bad guy to have on the team. Do I think he'll continue to hit the way he's hitting? No I don't. But I do think he can be valuable, and I do think he can perform better than his career numbers indicate. Like I said, I'd like to have him around... but only if they're willing to be realistic about what it will cost.

RedlegJake
07-14-2008, 01:20 AM
Hairston would be a great role player for the Reds IF they recognize him as that and pay accordingly. I'd love to have him as the 4th OFer, backup 2Bman and emergency SS. I just don't want the Reds thinking that now CF and the leadoff spot is solved. I heard Marty and Jeff saying exactly that in the 2nd Brewers game. How next year with Hairston in CF leading off, Bruce in RF and AGon back at SS this team will be set if they get a RH bat to replace Dunn. Amazingly, they got 1 of 4 options correct. And I'm afraid their thinking might be the management's thinking, too.

Ron Madden
07-14-2008, 01:27 AM
Hairston would be a great role player for the Reds IF they recognize him as that and pay accordingly. I'd love to have him as the 4th OFer, backup 2Bman and emergency SS. I just don't want the Reds thinking that now CF and the leadoff spot is solved. I heard Marty and Jeff saying exactly that in the 2nd Brewers game. How next year with Hairston in CF leading off, Bruce in RF and AGon back at SS this team will be set if they get a RH bat to replace Dunn. Amazingly, they got 1 of 4 options correct. And I'm afraid their thinking might be the management's thinking, too.

I agree with you on Hairston.

Lets hope and pray that Walt agrees with us more than he does with Marty and Jeff.

WVRedsFan
07-14-2008, 01:50 AM
I agree with you on Hairston.

Lets hope and pray that Walt agrees with us more than he does with Marty and Jeff.

I don't think you have to worry about that. For the moment, Hariston is (was) hot and you have to play the hot hand. We've seen it with Freel and others. The danger is when those in charge (manager, GM, owner) decide he is the real deal. Then, you've got a real problem. We've seem this with Freel who is named by every manager the Reds have ever had as the backup on every position on the field (at one time Freel on the depth chart was second to most everyone), but managers, along with the radio booth lobby for him because he appears to be the "sparkplug" of the team. Then he goes through great long stretches of 0-4's and 1-5's as he plays longer. Remeber when Narron and others kept saying he was the "key?" And yet, he wasn't and when it was pointed out how bad he was, they would always come up with a career OBP statistic? Never mind that he got thrown out and picked off at an alarming rate.

Never mind. The hot Hairston is gone for now. I imagine, like Feel, he's out for the duration, and that's a shame because he was hot. Jocketty isn't anyone's dummy and he knows this. Time for Walt to find a real shortsop and a right-handed outfielder for next year (as well as a good defensive cather--no, Ross is not that). My money's on Walt. And if not, see ya.

mbgrayson
07-14-2008, 02:48 PM
Per Mandy at John Fay's Blog:


Jerry Hairston Jr., who left Sunday's game against the Brewers in Milwaukee due to injury, was evaluated by doctors and has a mild right hamstring strain. John Fay reports Hairston will be re-evaluated Thursday.

Big Klu
07-14-2008, 02:51 PM
nm

bucksfan2
07-14-2008, 03:08 PM
I don't think you have to worry about that. For the moment, Hariston is (was) hot and you have to play the hot hand. We've seen it with Freel and others. The danger is when those in charge (manager, GM, owner) decide he is the real deal. Then, you've got a real problem. We've seem this with Freel who is named by every manager the Reds have ever had as the backup on every position on the field (at one time Freel on the depth chart was second to most everyone), but managers, along with the radio booth lobby for him because he appears to be the "sparkplug" of the team. Then he goes through great long stretches of 0-4's and 1-5's as he plays longer. Remeber when Narron and others kept saying he was the "key?" And yet, he wasn't and when it was pointed out how bad he was, they would always come up with a career OBP statistic? Never mind that he got thrown out and picked off at an alarming rate.

Never mind. The hot Hairston is gone for now. I imagine, like Feel, he's out for the duration, and that's a shame because he was hot. Jocketty isn't anyone's dummy and he knows this. Time for Walt to find a real shortsop and a right-handed outfielder for next year (as well as a good defensive cather--no, Ross is not that). My money's on Walt. And if not, see ya.

Its kind of sad that instead of embracing the year Hariston has had so far many are ready from him to fall on his face. Is he a world beater? No but a the same time if someone told you he would hit ~.350 and have an opb ~.400 you would be estatic. Hariston has been a very productive offensive player htis year and his versitility has been a great bonus.

I wouldn't break the bank to sign him but I would explore it. He doesn't remind me of Freel at all because Hariston has clue of how to play the game. He gives you ok defense where ever he has played and has had a good approach to hitting since he came up to the reds.

Big Klu
07-14-2008, 03:19 PM
Its kind of sad that instead of embracing the year Hariston has had so far many are ready from him to fall on his face. Is he a world beater? No but a the same time if someone told you he would hit ~.350 and have an opb ~.400 you would be estatic. Hariston has been a very productive offensive player htis year and his versitility has been a great bonus.

I wouldn't break the bank to sign him but I would explore it. He doesn't remind me of Freel at all because Hariston has clue of how to play the game. He gives you ok defense where ever he has played and has had a good approach to hitting since he came up to the reds.

He reminds me of Freel in that he plays multiple positions passably well, and has similar skills. However, I think that he is much more cerebral regarding the game than Freel is. This is probably because Hairston grew up in the clubhouse at Comiskey Park, with a father who was a 14-year major-league veteran, and he learned how to do things the right way. (I know people hate that phrase, but it's true.) It's like in basketball--often a coach's kid will do the little things that you don't expect out of a player, because he grew up in an environment where he was always around the game.

Will M
07-14-2008, 03:31 PM
Wonderful news. I really like Jerry, his approach to the game & the way the Reds play when he bats leadoff.

IMO Freel is a good corner outfielder otherwise he is below average in CF, 2B & 3B. Hairston is a better defensive player than Freel.

Sea Ray
07-14-2008, 03:36 PM
That didn't look too mild. I wonder what the MRI showed. I'd be amazed if he's not put on the DL.

bucksfan2
07-14-2008, 03:37 PM
He reminds me of Freel in that he plays multiple positions passably well, and has similar skills. However, I think that he is much more cerebral regarding the game than Freel is. This is probably because Hairston grew up in the clubhouse at Comiskey Park, with a father who was a 14-year major-league veteran, and he learned how to do things the right way. (I know people hate that phrase, but it's true.) It's like in basketball--often a coach's kid will do the little things that you don't expect out of a player, because he grew up in an environment where he was always around the game.

I agree here. Hariston and Freel are similar in their versitility but at the same time they are very different in their on the field actions. Hariston has had two injuries this season, a pulled hammy and a fractured finger. The finger was a rare occurance that you can't prevent. The hammy is another baseball injury that you really can't prevent. Its not like Freel's injuries steming from diving wrecklessly after balls or running into walls.

What I like about Hariston, to quote you, is that he does things the right way. He handles the bat well and has a purpose for each pitch he sees. IMO his worst position that he has played this year is CF but other than that he holds his own at every position. He is one of the few players who you can put anywhere and you know he will be in the right place when he is supposed to be.

westofyou
07-14-2008, 03:39 PM
Its kind of sad that instead of embracing the year Hariston has had so far many are ready from him to fall on his face.

If you ate at the buffet and had big plates of Jack Armstrong, Chris Stynes, Mark Lewis, Jeff Branson, Steve Parris, Jimmy Haynes, John Nunnley, Willie Greene and came away with a stomach ache wouldn't you question the chef's special each time it showed up on the big board?

PuffyPig
07-14-2008, 04:16 PM
If you ate at the buffet and had big plates of Jack Armstrong, Chris Stynes, Mark Lewis, Jeff Branson, Steve Parris, Jimmy Haynes, John Nunnley, Willie Greene and came away with a stomach ache wouldn't you question the chef's special each time it showed up on the big board?

Maybe if when you ate at the bufett, you dined on big plates of Dunn, Phillips, Volquez, Cueto, Votto, Burton, etc. you wouldn't need to question the chef so much?

westofyou
07-14-2008, 04:18 PM
Maybe if when you ate at the bufett, you dined on big plates of Dunn, Phillips, Volquez, Cueto, Votto, Burton, etc. you wouldn't need to question the chef so much?

Maybe.. but I still wouldn't pay a special price for the Fish on Monday no matter how good it looked that day.

KronoRed
07-14-2008, 04:21 PM
...I'm hungry all of a sudden :dunno:

Reds Fanatic
07-14-2008, 04:22 PM
That didn't look too mild. I wonder what the MRI showed. I'd be amazed if he's not put on the DL.
According to Trent the MRI just showed a mild strain. So based on that the DL might not be necessary.

RedsManRick
07-14-2008, 04:38 PM
According to Trent the MRI just showed a mild strain. So based on that the DL might not be necessary.

That's excellent news. He went down hard after clearing the bag. Though a DL stint might be Chris Dickerson's chance for a debut.

Highlifeman21
07-14-2008, 04:39 PM
That's excellent news. He went down hard after clearing the bag. Though a DL stint might be Chris Dickerson's chance for a debut.

Dickerson can't be any worse than Patterson offensively, and defensively Dickerson might actually be better than Patterson.

bucksfan2
07-14-2008, 04:39 PM
That's excellent news. He went down hard after clearing the bag. Though a DL stint might be Chris Dickerson's chance for a debut.

Who is the backup SS then? I think they bring in an IF if Hariston heads to the DL

RedsManRick
07-14-2008, 04:49 PM
Who is the backup SS then? I think they bring in an IF if Hariston heads to the DL

Ah, my bad. You're right. Hairston to the DL probably means Janish back up and more CPatt action. Get healthy Jerry!

Kc61
07-14-2008, 05:02 PM
I don't think you have to worry about that. For the moment, Hariston is (was) hot and you have to play the hot hand. We've seen it with Freel and others. The danger is when those in charge (manager, GM, owner) decide he is the real deal.

Never mind. The hot Hairston is gone for now. I imagine, like Feel, he's out for the duration, and that's a shame because he was hot. Jocketty isn't anyone's dummy and he knows this. Time for Walt to find a real shortsop and a right-handed outfielder for next year (as well as a good defensive cather--no, Ross is not that). My money's on Walt. And if not, see ya.

Not specifically addressed to this post, but you get the feeling generally that some fans are so tied to their prediction of his impending failure that they are missing the pleasure of the great performance Hairston has given the Reds. Freel is also not given his due as a player.

In terms of their ability, guys like Hairston, Keppinger, and Freel add a great deal to a team. They don't cost a fortune. They have the basic talent to provide a good performance. They hustle. They're versatile. And they are necessary because everybody can't be a $10 plus million superstar.

I have no doubt that Hairston will continue to perform well, he does not look like a flash in the pan to me. Similarly, I always thought that Freel added a lot (despite some errors of aggression). Freel plays hard and, in streaks, can hit. He plays multiple positions including a reasonable centerfield.

The Reds' failure with Freel was not overestimating his talents, but being too optimistic about his ability to stay healthy. He was a major injury risk and that was the flaw with his deal. Hairston seems to be a similar injury risk. He's been hurt much in recent years and probably can't be counted on for a lot of games.

The big issue with these guys is the injury risk, not performance, IMO.

RedsManRick
07-14-2008, 05:36 PM
Not specifically addressed to this post, but you get the feeling generally that some fans are so tied to their prediction of his impending failure that they are missing the pleasure of the great performance Hairston has given the Reds. Freel is also not given his due as a player.


If I can presume to speak for the other doubters as well, it's not that we don't appreciate the great production we've gotten from Hairston. It's merely that given his established record of non-performance, we don't want to bet any money on his continued surge for years to come. Let's enjoy it the rest of the way and if he continues to produce, we can talk deal after the season.

There's a lot more to lose by giving him an extension than there is to gain by extending him today -- unless you think he's going to continue to hit .350 from here on out.

Big Klu
07-14-2008, 06:31 PM
That's excellent news. He went down hard after clearing the bag. Though a DL stint might be Chris Dickerson's chance for a debut.


Who is the backup SS then? I think they bring in an IF if Hariston heads to the DL


Ah, my bad. You're right. Hairston to the DL probably means Janish back up and more CPatt action. Get healthy Jerry!

I figure that if Hairston has to go on the disabled list (which I still think is likely), either Janish will be back from Louisville, or (if he's healthy) Cabrera will be activated from the DL. I would prefer Cabrera, so that Janish can continue to get regular playing time at Louisville.

as for the concern that Corey Patterson will play, he will continue to be a backup, though he would become the fourth outfielder. Dunn, Bruce, and Griffey would be the starting OF.

GAC
07-14-2008, 08:52 PM
Its kind of sad that instead of embracing the year Hariston has had so far many are ready from him to fall on his face.


Not specifically addressed to this post, but you get the feeling generally that some fans are so tied to their prediction of his impending failure that they are missing the pleasure of the great performance Hairston has given the Reds.

No one is rooting for it. It's not like we're waiting for him to fall on his face so we can come back and say "See, we told you all so."

For instance. It was mentioned that he has a injury history, which has caused him to spend a lot of time on the DL. When he went down the other day with the hamstring injury I certainly wasn't celebrating. I was thoroughly bummed and feel for the guy because of what he has contributed to this team this year.

So yeah... we should acknowledge and recognize what he has done this year. It's been very welcome. Just don't let that '08 performance put binders on you, and ignore his overall career numbers.

All people are saying, including myself, is.... lets not be "fooled" by his '08 performance. Sure - be glad for what he is doing - but keep things in perspective and take into consideration the guy's entire "portfolio" accumulated over the last nine seasons.

I'll be the first to admit that Wayne Krivsky, if he were still the GM, would probable jump the gun and make a rash decision and sign this guy to an unwise, and unneccesary, contract. He's done it before. ;)

I want to retain the guy. I just don't want this FO, because of all the current hype over him, to make a dumb and rash decision based on one season of performance (small window), when the larger window says otherwise.


I wouldn't break the bank to sign him but I would explore it.

Freel's current contract didn't "break the bank". It was just simply an unwise and unnecessary decision.

Would you offer Hairston a similar contract given Freel? We extended him, and are paying him 7 mil over the course of 2 seasons (2008-09).

Sea Ray
07-14-2008, 09:10 PM
Ah, my bad. You're right. Hairston to the DL probably means Janish back up and more CPatt action. Get healthy Jerry!


According to Fay it'll be Cabrera:



CABRERA CLOSE: Jolbert Cabrera probably will be activated if Jerry Hairston Jr. needs to go on the disabled list.

Cabrera, who suffered a compound dislocation of his left index finger on June 20, is on a rehab assignment with Single-A Dayton.

He went into Sunday hitting .357 with three RBI in 14 at-bats.

lollipopcurve
07-15-2008, 10:25 AM
Would you offer Hairston a similar contract given Freel? We extended him, and are paying him 7 mil over the course of 2 seasons (2008-09).

Yes, I think so, unless his inclusion in a current trade can bring something of indisputable value. For me, the argument against signing him is his health history. I think he's going to perform when he's on the field.

If he were to continue to play at close to the level he's at, you have a real bargain. The salary would be modest in the context of the entire payroll.

With even average production next year and beyond -- it doesn't have to be comparable to what he's done this year -- his versatility, speed and baseball IQ would make him tradeable, just as Freel was reportedly in demand before he got hurt this year, even after having played poorly for quite awhile before a brief pre-injury renaissance.

Teams like the Reds have to take chances on all kinds of players -- a late bloomer with excellent intangibles being among them.

RedsManRick
07-15-2008, 10:31 AM
Yes, I think so, unless his inclusion in a current trade can bring something of indisputable value. For me, the argument against signing him is his health history. I think he's going to perform when he's on the field.

If he were to continue to play at close to the level he's at, you have a real bargain. The salary would be modest in the context of the entire payroll.

And if he reverted back to the player he was for his prior 2500 AB?



With even average production next year and beyond -- it doesn't have to be comparable to what he's done this year -- his versatility, speed and baseball IQ would make him tradeable, just as Freel was reportedly in demand before he got hurt this year, even after having played poorly for quite awhile before a brief pre-injury renaissance.

Teams like the Reds have to take chances on all kinds of players -- a late bloomer with excellent intangibles being among them.

Freel was in demand because he was getting on base 36% of the time and stealing lots of bags. A back-to-normal Jerry Hairston doesn't do anything particularly well.

I'm not sure why so many people are willing to overlook how utterly unsustainable his LD% driven BA, driven OBP, driven SLG performance is. He will regress to reason levels, whereupon his lack of walks and mere doubles power will show him be just what he is, a mediocre utility guy. Guys like him are fungible.

Kc61
07-15-2008, 10:46 AM
And if he reverted back to the player he was for his prior 2500 AB?

Freel was in demand because he was getting on base 36% of the time and stealing lots of bags. A back-to-normal Jerry Hairston doesn't do anything particularly well.

I'm not sure why so many people are willing to overlook how utterly unsustainable his LD% driven BA, driven OBP, driven SLG performance is. He will regress to reason levels, whereupon his lack of walks and mere doubles power will show him be just what he is, a mediocre utility guy. Guys like him are fungible.

I would guess that very few of the typical mediocre utility guys ever had 213 total plate appearances over several months with a .351 BA and a .893 OPS. I don't know that he's quite as fungible as you indicate -- most career backups aren't capable of this kind of performance.

And Hairston doesn't have to sustain his current numbers (which likely are unsustainable) to be a productive player. Drop 40 points of BA. Drop 60 points of OPS. Still a good offensive player.

Finally, I wonder whether anyone knows anything about this player other than his baseball card. Has he changed his approach at the plate? Has his career been plagued with injuries? Are there circumstances we don't know that explain some of his less stellar seasons? How high was his talent level as a young prospect -- is he someone who simply is blooming at a later age?

I wouldn't dismiss this guy simply on a read through of his career numbers.

nate
07-15-2008, 10:49 AM
And if he reverted back to the player he was for his prior 2500 AB?



Freel was in demand because he was getting on base 36% of the time and stealing lots of bags. A back-to-normal Jerry Hairston doesn't do anything particularly well.

I'm not sure why so many people are willing to overlook how utterly unsustainable his LD% driven BA, driven OBP, driven SLG performance is. He will regress to reason levels, whereupon his lack of walks and mere doubles power will show him be just what he is, a mediocre utility guy. Guys like him are fungible.

Because he "hustles", "looks like he's trying really hard" and "gets his uniform dirty."

He's having a great year and I'm glad he can help. I hope some of the other GMs around the league, especially those with tasty farm systems, have similar thoughts to those who want him back as next year's "Freel."

That would truly be the best value he could provide to the Reds.

westofyou
07-15-2008, 10:51 AM
Jerry is having Joe McEwing's June and July 2001, good for him.

Don't throw money at him.

lollipopcurve
07-15-2008, 11:05 AM
And if he reverted back to the player he was for his prior 2500 AB?

That would be too bad. As I noted, teams like the Reds have to take risks on all kinds of players. I also said, in sentence #1, "unless he can be included in a trade that brings back something of indisputable value."

Personally, I think there's no way Hairston reverts to that form, unless injuries drag him down. His approach at the plate has been too consistently good.


Freel was in demand because he was getting on base 36% of the time and stealing lots of bags. A back-to-normal Jerry Hairston doesn't do anything particularly well.

Hairston's approach will allow him to continue to get on base. And he steals bags too.


I'm not sure why so many people are willing to overlook how utterly unsustainable his LD% driven BA, driven OBP, driven SLG performance is. He will regress to reason levels, whereupon his lack of walks and mere doubles power will show him be just what he is, a mediocre utility guy. Guys like him are fungible.

Agreed that he very likely won't sustain current levels. But he'll do well enough to fill a very important role, at least, if he is not starting. If healthy, he is not a mediocre utility guy -- he is an outstanding utility guy.

Just curious -- who do you have hitting leadoff for the team next year? Fred Fungible?

Sea Ray
07-15-2008, 11:18 AM
I think the Reds have to make an effort to keep Hairston, all the while understanding that he may regress to his previous numbers, because they don't have an abundance of his skills in the organization. They need someone who can leadoff, steal bags, take good ABs, etc. There are no guarantees and every signing is a risk but I think this is a risk they ought to consider.

Raisor
07-15-2008, 11:22 AM
Looking at Hairston's splits over his career, and it looks like he can put up good half seasons.

His three best seasons are good examples:

02-Overall 705 OPS in 479 PA's, 2nd Half 777 OPS in 283 PA's
03-Overall 725 OPS in 259 PA's, 1st half 769 OPS in 193 PA's
04-Overall 775 OPS in 334 PA's, 1st half 812 OPS in 215 PA's.

That 04 season really looks like this year so far

04-.324/.390/.422, 215 PA's
08-.351/.398/.495, 213 PA's.

In the second half of 04: .265/.356/.353, 119 PA's.

I'm not sure you want to go multiple years on a guy like this.

gonelong
07-15-2008, 11:30 AM
That would be too bad. As I noted, teams like the Reds have to take risks on all kinds of players.

I agree, the Reds need to take some calculated risks from time to time in order to keep up with (and hopefully pass) the Joneses. However, IMO, Hairston (going forward) is not the kind of risks the Reds should be taking.

GL

lollipopcurve
07-15-2008, 11:30 AM
I'm not sure you want to go multiple years on a guy like this.

So long as he holds up physically this year, you won't get him unless you go multiple years. The issue with Hairston is his durability. You have to keep him rested.

lollipopcurve
07-15-2008, 11:31 AM
I agree, the Reds need to take some calculated risks from time to time in order to keep up with (and hopefully pass) the Joneses. However, IMO, Hairston (going forward) is not the kind of risks the Reds should be taking.

Why not? Financially, he's probably about 1/10th the risk Adam Dunn would be.

Raisor
07-15-2008, 11:33 AM
So long as he holds up physically this year, you won't get him unless you go multiple years. The issue with Hairston is his durability. You have to keep him rested.

If he's not willing to go one year, you thank him for his service and move on.

Highlifeman21
07-15-2008, 11:43 AM
If he's not willing to go one year, you thank him for his service and move on.

Are we able to sign Hairston to monthly contracts, or maybe even 1/2 season contracts?

gonelong
07-15-2008, 11:44 AM
Why not? Financially, he's probably about 1/10th the risk Adam Dunn would be.

1. Just because there is more money involved, doesn't mean the risk is higher.
2. At 2 years $7M ($3.5/yr) you give the nod to Hairston ... your expecting Dunn to command $35M a year then?

Dunn is about as risk free as you can find. He is consistenly on the field and gives consistent production from year-to-year. The only question with Dunn is what is the price/length of his next contract. More than 3 years? Getting risky. Three or less, not much risk at all.

With Hairston we'd be hoping he could stay on the field, and that his last 10% of ABs is a better indicator than his fist 90%. $3.5M over 2 years, sign me up. $7M/2yr, too risky for me.

GL

Raisor
07-15-2008, 11:44 AM
Are we able to sign Hairston to monthly contracts, or maybe even 1/2 season contracts?

10 day contracts, like the NBA.

Highlifeman21
07-15-2008, 11:46 AM
10 day contracts, like the NBA.

I think we've found a solution, b/c 1 season is the absolute most I'd want Hairston locked up.

bucksfan2
07-15-2008, 11:50 AM
And if he reverted back to the player he was for his prior 2500 AB?

Freel was in demand because he was getting on base 36% of the time and stealing lots of bags. A back-to-normal Jerry Hairston doesn't do anything particularly well.

I'm not sure why so many people are willing to overlook how utterly unsustainable his LD% driven BA, driven OBP, driven SLG performance is. He will regress to reason levels, whereupon his lack of walks and mere doubles power will show him be just what he is, a mediocre utility guy. Guys like him are fungible.

How much stock to you put in his injury? From all reports Hariston had a cracked rib in his back that he thought was back pain for a couple of years. Whose to say that Hariston had improved as a ball player but the back pain prohibited him from performing at the level he could.

Look at his atbats. He is not overmatched at the plate and isn't getting lucky. He is putting up good at bats and hitting the ball well. If that disappears in the second half then thank him for his services but if that doesn't then a 2 year deal similar to what Freel got isn't that bad of a thing.

Sea Ray
07-15-2008, 11:51 AM
With Hairston we'd be hoping he could stay on the field, and that his last 10% of ABs is a better indicator than his fist 90%. $3.5M over 2 years, sign me up. $7M/2yr, too risky for me.

GL

I agree. He's not worth $7mill/2yrs because he hasn't shown he can stay healthy enough to start. I doubt he'll command that much

Raisor
07-15-2008, 11:53 AM
Look at his atbats. He is not overmatched at the plate and isn't getting lucky. He is putting up good at bats and hitting the ball well. If that disappears in the second half then thank him for his services but if that doesn't then a 2 year deal similar to what Freel got isn't that bad of a thing.

His history shows that he will put up ok-good numbers for half a season, then tank. I hope that's not what happens, but that's the way I'd bet.

lollipopcurve
07-15-2008, 11:57 AM
I think we've found a solution, b/c 1 season is the absolute most I'd want Hairston locked up.

If I remember correctly, about 1/2 the 25-man roster will be moving into free agency. Unless Jocketty is planning to promote 6-7 guys from Louisville, he'd do well to lock up some players on this year's roster before they hit the market. I think Hairston is one they should sign if he can't be moved at the deadline in a trade that brings back an unquestionably good return of one kind or another -- and provided he stays healthy. Because there's no telling what the front office will be able to bring in next year if it's looking at filling 12-13 spots.

Raisor
07-15-2008, 12:01 PM
Scrappy Fest 08 has begun!!!

Cincy fans love them some Scrappy guys.

;)

westofyou
07-15-2008, 12:03 PM
If that disappears in the second half then thank him for his services but if that doesn't then a 2 year deal similar to what Freel got isn't that bad of a thing.

What happens when he returns to the mean at the age of 33 with that 2 year contract?

And by tech mean I mean ... Desi Relaford and guys like this




RUNS CREATED/GAME RC/G OBA SLG AB
1 Dave Collins 4.44 .338 .351 4907
2 Alan Bannister 4.36 .334 .355 3007
3 Bump Wills 4.33 .335 .360 3030
4 Billy Klaus 4.32 .335 .351 2513
5 Mickey Morandini 4.31 .338 .359 4558
6 Jeff Reed 4.23 .334 .361 3101
7 Dave Cash 4.20 .334 .358 5554
8 Damian Jackson 4.17 .323 .356 2209
9 Russ Snyder 4.17 .325 .363 3631
10 Gene Stephens 4.16 .325 .355 1913
11 Alex Arias 4.16 .338 .350 1773
12 Chad Kreuter 4.16 .335 .357 2505
13 Danny O'Connell 4.14 .333 .351 4035
14 Marty Barrett 4.14 .337 .347 3378
15 Jerry Lumpe 4.09 .325 .356 4912
16 Red Wilson 4.06 .338 .355 1765
17 Bobby Del Greco 4.04 .330 .352 1982
18 Ricky Gutierrez 4.01 .338 .350 3632
19 Ed Kirkpatrick 4.01 .327 .363 3467
20 Danny Heep 3.99 .330 .357 1961
21 Jerry Hairston Jr. 3.98 .324 .357 2535
22 Bill Tuttle 3.95 .334 .363 4268
23 Glenn Hubbard 3.93 .328 .349 4441
24 Rick Burleson 3.93 .328 .361 5139
25 Mike Bordick 3.92 .323 .362 5770

Chip R
07-15-2008, 12:11 PM
As of right now, he's the best option the Reds have at the leadoff spot and to play CF. Surely we don't want Patterson to come back. While it would be great to get a player who gets a lot of walks to lead off, that's clearly not a priority with Dusty. Yes, he's injury prone so you keep Freel around to play when he's hurt. When Freel gets hurt, Hariston plays. When they are both healthy, play the hot one. Give him $1M-1.5M for next year and if he wants anything more, give him a club option for 2010.

Roy Tucker
07-15-2008, 12:23 PM
Yep, I'd sign him for 2 years with either a club option or a mutual option for year 2.

No matter what, the Reds can get out of year 2. If he turns out to be stellar, Hairston can go on the open market in year 2 if he so chooses.

I really like what he's done this season for the Reds, but too many questions about staying healthy and sustaining his performance exist for my Nunally-Stynes tastes.

SteelSD
07-15-2008, 12:24 PM
Look at his atbats. He is not overmatched at the plate and isn't getting lucky.

He's not getting lucky? His Line Drive rate is 30.2% and his BABIP is .389 right now. There isn't a hitter alive capable of sustaining those numbers over the long haul.

lollipopcurve
07-15-2008, 12:53 PM
1. Just because there is more money involved, doesn't mean the risk is higher.

Speaking in a strict financial sense, yes it does. Keep in mind, too, that Dunn has had knee surgery and is carrying 270 pounds around the outfield on a daily basis.


At 2 years $7M ($3.5/yr) you give the nod to Hairston ... your expecting Dunn to command $35M a year then?

No -- the total outlay to sign Dunn may be about 10X (5 years at 15 per, perhaps) the total outlay to sign Hairston (2 years at 3.5 per).

RedsManRick
07-15-2008, 01:17 PM
How much stock to you put in his injury? From all reports Hariston had a cracked rib in his back that he thought was back pain for a couple of years. Whose to say that Hariston had improved as a ball player but the back pain prohibited him from performing at the level he could.

Look at his atbats. He is not overmatched at the plate and isn't getting lucky. He is putting up good at bats and hitting the ball well. If that disappears in the second half then thank him for his services but if that doesn't then a 2 year deal similar to what Freel got isn't that bad of a thing.

Maybe it's semantics. You're right, he's not getting "lucky" per se'. He's legitimately hitting all of those line drives.

However, the issue is that he's hitting the at a rate which is 100% unsustainable. He's not Babe Ruth, Ty Cobb, or Ted Williams -- and even they couldn't hit line drives that often. Among players with 200 PA, Hairston is a full 2.5% above the next highest guy, Jamey Carroll. In 2007, the major league leader was Michael Young, at 27.2%, who at 25.2% is among the greatest LD hitters in the game today. The fact that Hairston doesn't show the secondary skills (isolated discipline and power), which tend to correlate to this sort of success, is icing on the cake.

Simply put, Hairston is not going to keep hitting line drives 30% of the time. And when he regresses back to something around his career average, 22.9%, his AVG, OBP, and SLG will all fall precipitously.

Don't get me wrong. I like Hairston and would prefer to have him around rather than Freel. But he's not a .900 OPS guy. He's not likely an .800 OPS guy beyond this season and I wouldn't be surprised in the least if he drops below .800 yet this year. He's your standard utility guy who does nothing particularly great but can play smart baseball, play good enough defense at a few positions, and fill a bench role on a good team. I know he's been hot so far this year, but there are lots of Hairston-esque players out there and you don't have to pay them multiple millions and commit to multiple years to get them.

Paying him say $3.5M (or $2.5M) this year for this year's .800+ OPS would be fine. But he's already giving us that production for less. There's no reason to pay him $3.5M in 2009 and 2010 for the likely .730 he'll put up merely because we happened to get a good deal in 2008.

The logic which suggests Hairston should be extended is precisely the sort of logic that justified the Rheal Cormier extension. Take your good fortune and cash in. Don't double down on bad odds.

BuckeyeRedleg
07-15-2008, 04:36 PM
The logic which suggests Hairston should be extended is precisely the sort of logic that justified the Rheal Cormier extension. Take your good fortune and cash in. Don't double down on bad odds.

Bingo.

GAC
07-15-2008, 08:52 PM
As I noted, teams like the Reds have to take risks on all kinds of players.

No they don't. In fact, this organization needs to minimize those risks. Bad contracts add up for a mid-tier payroll team. When they spend, they need to spend wisely.

IMO, in recent history, this organization has been foolish, and somewhat rash, in handing out unnecessary (and ill-advised) contracts (or extensions) on average-to-marginal players who somehow "momentarily shined" when their career numbers dictated otherwise.

I'm sure others can add to the list; but three come to mind right off the top of my head....

Bronson Arroyo
Ryan Freel
David Ross

And I'll even add a 4th because I know some would want him included....Gonzo ;)


So long as he holds up physically this year, you won't get him unless you go multiple years. The issue with Hairston is his durability. You have to keep him rested.

The that alone shows he isn't worth a multiple year contract.

Spring~Fields
07-15-2008, 11:23 PM
No they don't. In fact, this organization needs to minimize those risks. Bad contracts add up for a mid-tier payroll team. When they spend, they need to spend wisely.

IMO, in recent history, this organization has been foolish, and somewhat rash, in handing out unnecessary (and ill-advised) contracts (or extensions) on average-to-marginal players who somehow "momentarily shined" when their career numbers dictated otherwise.
I'm sure others can add to the list; but three come to mind right off the top of my head....

Bronson Arroyo
Ryan Freel
David Ross

And I'll even add a 4th because I know some would want him included....Gonzo ;)



The that alone shows he isn't worth a multiple year contract.

Plus it seems that the Reds have had nothing but bad luck with the long term contracts (over a year), too many injuries on top of what you are speaking to. Hariston has a history of injuries, according to his comments, "first year I have been injury free" I read he was quoted, and guess what, he is injured again this year.

Reds Fanatic
07-17-2008, 03:51 PM
Nothing has officially been announed yet but this from Trent sounds like Cabrera could be taking Hairston's place if he is put on the DL.


Post All-Star Break means infield practice. I do love me some infield practice. No sign of Jerry Hairston Jr., but Jolbert Cabrera is out there, so expect Hairston to go to the DL and Cabrera to take his spot.

Will M
05-13-2009, 12:34 AM
when Gonzo went down I really really really wanted Janish to play SS.
JHJ was hitting somewhere around the Mendoza line.
I admit it. I was wrong. Dusty is da man!

What a difference a week or so makes. JHJ looks like the player he was (when healthy) last year. His offense from the #2 hole lets Rosales hit 8th. His defense at SS has been questioned in the past. I believe he is a natural second baseman. However he has looked very good at SS. He may not have a rocket arm but his range seems good & he makes a lot of athletic plays.

How about this:

Gonzo rides the pine. Hairston plays SS with Janish getting some starts here.

Get Gomes up here from AAA to play LF vs RHP.

Kc61
05-13-2009, 07:45 AM
If Gonzalez is ready to play, my guess is Hairston will play some third base and some left field.

But Gonzalez needs to hit some more, or Hairston will be back at shortstop.

Scrap Irony
05-13-2009, 09:36 AM
Hairston is going to get his. LF, 3B, an occasional SS start, 2B. Bruce is due a day off, as is Taveras. Hairston, IMO, will get both of those.

Dusty will find a way to keep him in games.

NJReds
05-13-2009, 09:54 AM
Hairston is going to get his. LF, 3B, an occasional SS start, 2B. Bruce is due a day off, as is Taveras. Hairston, IMO, will get both of those.

Dusty will find a way to keep him in games.

Hairston, like Freel, is a very useful player in spot starts at multiple positions and coming off the bench. That's a valuable commodity for a team. I'm not sure he can take the rigors of starting everyday at one spot.

Scrap Irony
05-13-2009, 10:00 AM
Agreed. He's Ryan Freel with a bit more pop and a bit less recklessness. (Okay, a lot less recklessness.) When Hairston's hot, the whole team is tough to beat.

NJReds
05-13-2009, 10:02 AM
Agreed. He's Ryan Freel with a bit more pop and a bit less recklessness. (Okay, a lot less recklessness.) When Hairston's hot, the whole team is tough to beat.

To clarify, I wasn't comparing him to Freel as a player ... but in his role. The good thing about Hairston is that he can play SS and CF which makes him a valuable backup.

If the Reds brought up Gomes for McDonald, it would really strengthen the bench.

RedsMan3203
05-13-2009, 10:10 AM
Nix hasn't been "tearing" it up at the plate either... Even thou he is hitting around .300 for the month ... Nix would be easier to sit right now for Hairston to start in his place, but i'd almost rather have him playing 3rd once Gonzo comes back.