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Kc61
07-13-2008, 09:10 AM
Reds team ERA is much improved, from 4.94 end of last year to 4.44 now. Half a run per game.

Yet the league's average ERA is also better this year. Compared with the end of last year, which was 4.43, the league ERA this year is 4.24. The AL league ERA is improved this year too.

I don't know why the league ERAs are better. And I don't know the comparable league ERA for this time last year, just the end of last year.

Despite the team's improvement, the Reds are still about .20 in ERA worse than league average. The Reds have also allowed 47 unearned runs, one of the highest amounts in the league (only three teams seem worse on a quick read), which reflects on pitching to a degree.

Yet it's not the whole pitching staff -- it's the starters.

The Reds starters have a 4.98 ERA which is 13th in the league and compares to a 4.45 league average. Last year the Reds starters had a 4.86 compared to a 4.65 league average. So -- and get this -- the starting pitching (on an ERA basis) has been worse than last year both in absolute numbers and as compared to the league.

The bullpen is dramatically better this year. Last year it was 5.01 compared to a 4.06 league average. This year Reds are 3.52 (4th best in league) compared to 3.87 league wide.

The starters are 6th in the league in hits and in walks, which are not good numbers but aren't the real culprits. The real issues are extra base hits allowed -- team's starters are 2nd in homers allowed and 3rd in doubles allowed.

There are only five starters on a team -- so it's easy to see where the problems have been. Arroyo has a 5.98 in 104 innings. And the fifth starter tandem of Fogg/Belisle/Thompson/Bailey have a combined ERA over 7. Fogg has done better the last few outings, obviously.

In a normal Harang season, he might be counteracting these poor numbers. This year he isn't. Volquez is, but he's only one guy. Actually, four of the five Reds starting slots have ERAs worse than the overall team average ERA.

So there needs to be improvement in the starting performances for the team to succeed. Agree? And what does this tell us about the Reds' potential decisions about its veteran starters at the trade deadline?

Will M
07-13-2008, 09:35 AM
Reds team ERA is much improved, from 4.94 end of last year to 4.44 now. Half a run per game.

Yet the league's average ERA is also better this year. Compared with the end of last year, which was 4.43, the league ERA this year is 4.24. The AL league ERA is improved this year too.

I don't know why the league ERAs are better. And I don't know the comparable league ERA for this time last year, just the end of last year.

Despite the team's improvement, the Reds are still about .20 in ERA worse than league average. The Reds have also allowed 47 unearned runs, one of the highest amounts in the league (only three teams seem worse on a quick read), which reflects on pitching to a degree.

Yet it's not the whole pitching staff -- it's the starters.

The Reds starters have a 4.98 ERA which is 13th in the league and compares to a 4.45 league average. Last year the Reds starters had a 4.86 compared to a 4.65 league average. So -- and get this -- the starting pitching (on an ERA basis) has been worse than last year both in absolute numbers and as compared to the league.

The bullpen is dramatically better this year. Last year it was 5.01 compared to a 4.06 league average. This year Reds are 3.52 (4th best in league) compared to 3.87 league wide.

The starters are 6th in the league in hits and in walks, which are not good numbers but aren't the real culprits. The real issues are extra base hits allowed -- team's starters are 2nd in homers allowed and 3rd in doubles allowed.

There are only five starters on a team -- so it's easy to see where the problems have been. Arroyo has a 5.98 in 104 innings. And the fifth starter tandem of Fogg/Belisle/Thompson/Bailey have a combined ERA over 7. Fogg has done better the last few outings, obviously.

In a normal Harang season, he might be counteracting these poor numbers. This year he isn't. Volquez is, but he's only one guy. Actually, four of the five Reds starting slots have ERAs worse than the overall team average ERA.

So there needs to be improvement in the starting performances for the team to succeed. Agree? And what does this tell us about the Reds' potential decisions about its veteran starters at the trade deadline?

1. Remember we play in GABP

2. Arroyo and the 5th starters are the main culprits

3. Our defense is awful. A lot of the earned runs we give up would not happen on a team with good defense.

4. A healthy Harang plus an improving Cueto gives us a very good 1-2-3.
I personally feel 2008 is long gone so I would like to see more of Thompson at some point and also Maloney. Bailey gets a start or two now so we'll see if he is any better.

5. Still dump Majik, Coffey & Belisle. Trade Weathers ( he has value ) and call up Roenicke. Trade Fogg who may have value after his last two starts.
Listen to offers on Arroyo. If he is traded he will need to be replaced by s free agent vet who can give us some innings ( ? Lowe ).
I would keep Lincoln and Affeldt for 2009 if the price is right.

RedLegSuperStar
07-13-2008, 09:38 AM
Seems like we need a lot.. more pitching.. more hits.. better defense. I'll be honest we need to work on machanics and defense with what we have. We all know Homer Bailey can light up a radar gun, but it means nothing if he can't control his pitch location. Encarnacion and Votto can give you timely hits, but it means nothing when they give our pitching staff headaches by the amount of outs they cost us.

Every team is always going to need pitching or better pitching. The Reds have a good core to build on now whether it's for a run this year or for all the marbles next year. Harang has to return to form and if Arroyo can not be Kyle Lohse circa Reds they may have a chance at the wild card. But with every good pitcher there is a good defense. Until the Reds cut down on there errors our pitching staff is going to look below average at best.

Kc61
07-13-2008, 10:43 AM
Volquez has the same poor defense behind him and somehow is 12-3. It's not just the defense, which is below average, although it is partially the defense.

The Reds have to decide if they are better off with more kid pitchers and trade return as compared with Arroyo and Fogg. Fogg is now the clear fifth starter, Belisle is out of the picture.

Despite my desire to have a good record this year, I would seriously consider moving both Arroyo and Fogg because their overall numbers don't warrant a permanent place in the rotation. Arroyo's 2007 numbers didn't come out too bad, but he was ineffective most of the first half of last year. He got better when the Reds were out of it.

Fogg may be a decent fifth starter but he doesn't project as a four or a three. I would like the Reds fifth starter to be somebody who still has enough upside potential to break through as a four or a three.

So my inclination would be to move them for value. But -- this would risk 2007's won-lost record since both Arroyo and Fogg are pitching pretty well right now. So it's not an obvious decision. Reasonable people could easily disagree.

OnBaseMachine
07-13-2008, 12:25 PM
Josh Fogg/Matt Belisle/Todd Coffey are the big reasons why the Reds team ERA is high. I'm actually quite fine with the starting pitching mostly. Harang will bounce back next season to the Harang of old IMO, Cueto will be better, Volquez will top the rotation, and Arroyo will provide us with solid numbers out of the 4/5th spot. The key is finding someone better to replace Belisle/Fogg. Daryl Thompson could be ready by then, or maybe they can find someone outside the organization.

mth123
07-13-2008, 12:53 PM
Volquez has the same poor defense behind him and somehow is 12-3. It's not just the defense, which is below average, although it is partially the defense.

The Reds have to decide if they are better off with more kid pitchers and trade return as compared with Arroyo and Fogg. Fogg is now the clear fifth starter, Belisle is out of the picture.

Despite my desire to have a good record this year, I would seriously consider moving both Arroyo and Fogg because their overall numbers don't warrant a permanent place in the rotation. Arroyo's 2007 numbers didn't come out too bad, but he was ineffective most of the first half of last year. He got better when the Reds were out of it.

Fogg may be a decent fifth starter but he doesn't project as a four or a three. I would like the Reds fifth starter to be somebody who still has enough upside potential to break through as a four or a three.

So my inclination would be to move them for value. But -- this would risk 2007's won-lost record since both Arroyo and Fogg are pitching pretty well right now. So it's not an obvious decision. Reasonable people could easily disagree.

While your general point is correct I think the difference is how its fixed. The defense is a much bigger negative for the fly ball guys (Harang, Arroyo and Cueto) than it is for the ground ball guys (Volquez) and I think that partially explains it. I also think that the team will get improvement from within from Harang, Arroyo and Cueto. Couple this with a better OF situation and 4 spots are OK IMO (though they haven't been up to now). The 5th spot is a black hole and I really don't like any of the internal options for now. Maybe Bailey and Thompson will be good pitchers in the future but not in 2008 or maybe even 2009. The Reds need to hang on to the top 4 and acquire 1 middle of the rotation (#3 or #4 type) starter while working on improving the defense. I think that will give the team pitching that is good enough to win.

RedsManRick
07-13-2008, 01:38 PM
Once you adjust for park and defense, we actually have an above average rotation. Not saying that we couldn't use better starters, but ERA hardly tells the full story.

Part of the reason Volquez has had so much success is that he has a higher K/9 than any other pitcher than 100 IP and he's a ground ball machine. He avoids the two biggest pitfalls facing Reds pitchers better than most.

LvJ
07-13-2008, 01:40 PM
Simply imagine if Harang was having the same type of season he had last year here in 2008.

*sigh*

I guess everything has to even itself out for Reds fans.

*BaseClogger*
07-13-2008, 04:41 PM
I've got an idea: start a thread and title it "Reds need more good players" and then go on to explain that the Reds need more talent to improve... :)

Kc61
07-13-2008, 05:30 PM
Josh Fogg/Matt Belisle/Todd Coffey are the big reasons why the Reds team ERA is high.

The three of them have pitched a grand total of 84 innings this year. They are part of the problem.

Arroyo's 5.97 ERA over 104 innings is equally major because he's pitched more innings than the other three combined and he's not the (often throwaway) fifth starter.

As for these simply titled threads, the purpose is to show that there are some basic areas of need on the Reds which do not require a PhD in statistics to understand. They need better BA hitters, particularly righties. They need to improve defense at several positions. And the 4 and 5 spots in the rotation need to do much better.

WVRedsFan
07-13-2008, 06:30 PM
The three of them have pitched a grand total of 84 innings this year. They are part of the problem.

Arroyo's 5.97 ERA over 104 innings is equally major because he's pitched more innings than the other three combined and he's not the (often throwaway) fifth starter.

As for these simply titled threads, the purpose is to show that there are some basic areas of need on the Reds which do not require a PhD in statistics to understand. They need better BA hitters, particularly righties. They need to improve defense at several positions. And the 4 and 5 spots in the rotation need to do much better.
Spot on. Of course, we used two No. 5 starters recently to the tune of 11 innings of 6 hit ball and five earned runs (4.5 ERA) with 2 walks and 11 strikeouts. Not bad.

Yes, we need better players, but pitching has been a nice surprise.