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Wheelhouse
07-13-2008, 09:30 AM
If the Reds win today and the Cards lose, they will be 5 games out of the Wild Card race with 4 teams above them. I'm on the fence, kinda.

GAC
07-13-2008, 09:39 AM
IMHO, it's far more complicated, cannot be simplified, simply by asking do we buy or sell.

It depends on what other teams might be interested in, and what we can get in return.

This has been a very inconsistent ball club this year.

If we come out of the AS break and get swept by the Mets... who are on fire right now (10-2 in July, and won 8 straight).... do we then change our position and become sellers again?

RedLegSuperStar
07-13-2008, 09:43 AM
I'm on the fence for the point that GAC made. Say we win today agains CC and the Brewers and the do lose.. facing the Mets for a 4 game series is going to be a test. It's always going to be a series with this ball club. I'd say wait until after the Mets series and go from there.

guttle11
07-13-2008, 09:47 AM
IMHO, it's far more complicated, cannot be simplified, simply by asking do we buy or sell.

It depends on what other teams might be interested in, and what we can get in return.

This has been a very inconsistent ball club this year.

If we come out of the AS break and get swept by the Mets... who are on fire right now (10-2 in July, and won 8 straight).... do we then change our position and become buyers again?

You mean sellers?

I agree. The good thing about where the Reds stand is the number of teams to jump. It's only like 4. If they can get to 3 or 4 games out by July 25th, I'd stand firm. Take a (long) shot.

Now, if they're 6 or 7 games out with 6 or 7 teams to jump...I'd be making some phone calls and ordering boxes and packing peanuts for a few guys.

GAC
07-13-2008, 09:49 AM
You mean sellers?

Thanks for pointing that out guttle. My mistake :p:

BuckeyeRedleg
07-13-2008, 09:56 AM
I'm for holding onto Adam Dunn.

Other than him, honestly, there is really not much to sell.

At least not much that would bring much back in return.

edabbs44
07-13-2008, 10:53 AM
I'd wait another week and a half to truly decide.

But it would also depend on what the buying currency would be.

Strikes Out Looking
07-13-2008, 11:17 AM
If I'm Walt, I listen to others, watch my teams performance and wait two weeks before doing anything drastic. There is a reason there is 162 game schedule and teams aren't proclaimed world champs in early July--for instance, where at Shea are they hanging those post season 2007 banners?

The Reds have to sell seats for the rest of the year and a fire sale when the team appears to be coming around isn't exactly the signal Mr. C probably wants to send.

MWM
07-13-2008, 11:26 AM
There's no reason to wait two weeks to decide anything. The game is 3.5 months old. We're not going to learn anything new in the next two weeks that we don't know already. It's not a contender and they shouldn't make any decisions as if they are.

guttle11
07-13-2008, 11:33 AM
There's no reason to wait two weeks to decide anything. The game is 3.5 months old. We're not going to learn anything new in the next two weeks that we don't know already. It's not a contender and they shouldn't make any decisions as if they are.

I see your point, but there's no reason to sell in the next week, either. Let the market dictate itself.

But at some point you have to throw logic to the wind and go for it. If the Reds get hot after the break and are only a few games back, right in the thick of the hunt, you have to go for it. Especially with a team full of parts that aren't in the future, but really aren't in anyone else's present either.

I should point out that I don't want them to be buyers if they reach that point. Just not sellers.

Sea Ray
07-13-2008, 11:47 AM
IMHO, it's far more complicated, cannot be simplified, simply by asking do we buy or sell.

It depends on what other teams might be interested in, and what we can get in return.

This has been a very inconsistent ball club this year.

If we come out of the AS break and get swept by the Mets... who are on fire right now (10-2 in July, and won 8 straight).... do we then change our position and become sellers again?

You're right, it is complicated. I don't see that anything has changed. The Reds GM should consider trades if it improves the talent of the organization. That's what any GM should do. I get the feeling that some around here think we'll acquire significant riches if we trade away our veterans. I look at what we've gotten in the past and it seems to me that we're most likely to get players like Marcus McBeth, Scott Winchester, Tyler Pelland, Phil Dumatrait and Matt Belisle rather than Aaron Harang. The Harang deal involved a starting outfielder with good numbers who was signed cheaply. I think it's also fair to say that Harang exceeded the ceiling he arrived with. Kudos to him.

It's not worth it to trade Affeldt, Hairston and Weathers for AAAA players like Belisle and McBeth.

If I'm Walt I'll seek offers for any of my veterans but I'd only trade them if I think I'm getting something of value in return, such as Bagwell for Andersen or Smoltz for Alexander.

mbgrayson
07-13-2008, 11:51 AM
I picked 'sell', but for me it should be carefully selected sell, not a complete firesale.

Sell:
Weathers (who they are showcasing. Did you see the MLB.COM article (http://reds.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20080711&content_id=3117558&vkey=news_cin&fext=.jsp&c_id=cin)on how much better his ERA is on the road than in GABP?)

Freel, if anyone wants him.

Griffey, if there are any takers.

Arroyo, if we can get a strong B level prospect or two.

Fogg, for a prospect or two.

I would keep Ross, who is 31, and sell Bako (age 36) or Javier (almost 33).

I would keep Dunn, but that is a subject for it's own thread (or 10).

BuckeyeRedleg
07-13-2008, 11:59 AM
While this isn't encouraging...

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/standings.php

I'm not so sure this is the same team that created the weak RS/RA total. With the addition of Ross hitting, the entire infield is now OPS-ing over .800. Encarnacion is hot. Phillips is Phillips. Votto is solid. Hairston has been a spark-plug having a career year.

In the OF, Dunn is on the verge of going on a tear. If not, you can still expect 40 HR and 100 RBI with a .900 OPS. Bruce will only get better. Griffey can only either A. get better or B. get injured whereas he'll be replaced by someone better all-around.

The bullpen is solid with Cordero, Burton, Lincoln, Affelt, Bray, and even Weathers (at times). There is help on the farm with Roenicke. The rotation is coming around as Volquez has been Cy Young to this point. Cueto has been hot. Arroyo has career K numbers and has been unlucky (BABIP). There is help on the farm (hopefully) between Elizardo, I mean Daryl Thompson, Bailey, and Maloney. If one of those guys can step up it would be huge. Harang is the key. If he can get back to where he was the past few years in the 2nd half, this team can make a run. I wouldn't mind seeing them rid themselves of Javy Valentin (as he serves basically zero purpose) and Corey Patterson and bringing up Roenicke and Dickerson.

I could have a point here or I could also just be drinking the kool-aid.

RedlegJake
07-13-2008, 12:13 PM
I'll combine mbgrayson and BuckeyeRedlegs' viewpoints. Add a touch of buy (a RH power bat). Listen to offers for Hairston but it would have be a very good return as I'm selling the guy high. Keep Dunn unless someone knocks me over and take the draft picks (that's assuming they don't re-sign him). Moving Arroyo, Freel and Junior if possible, the first two for payroll considerations and Junior gives Bruce a full time slot where he belongs in RF. Moving Weathers lets Roenicke come up. In other words not selling from need but from strength.

OnBaseMachine
07-13-2008, 12:13 PM
Trade Griffey, Weathers, and maybe Affeldt for now. Losing those guys and replacing them with in house options like Hairston in CF for now and Roenicke in the bullpen could actually improve the team a little. If the Reds fall further out then go into complete sell mode...

membengal
07-13-2008, 12:17 PM
While this isn't encouraging...

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/standings.php

I'm not so sure this is the same team that created the weak RS/RA total. With the addition of Ross hitting, the entire infield is now OPS-ing over .800. Encarnacion is hot. Phillips is Phillips. Votto is solid. Hairston has been a spark-plug having a career year.

In the OF, Dunn is on the verge of going on a tear. If not, you can still expect 40 HR and 100 RBI with a .900 OPS. Bruce will only get better. Griffey can only either A. get better or B. get injured whereas he'll be replaced by someone better all-around.

The bullpen is solid with Cordero, Burton, Lincoln, Affelt, Bray, and even Weathers (at times). There is help on the farm with Roenicke. The rotation is coming around as Volquez has been Cy Young to this point. Cueto has been hot. Arroyo has career K numbers and has been unlucky (BABIP). There is help on the farm (hopefully) between Elizardo, I mean Daryl Thompson, Bailey, and Maloney. If one of those guys can step up it would be huge. Harang is the key. If he can get back to where he was the past few years in the 2nd half, this team can make a run. I wouldn't mind seeing them rid themselves of Javy Valentin (as he serves basically zero purpose) and Corey Patterson and bringing up Roenicke and Dickerson.

I could have a point here or I could also just be drinking the kool-aid.

every team in the Central is out-performing their pythag except for the cubs. Sounds about right to me...

KronoRed
07-13-2008, 12:30 PM
Sell like yahoo stock. ;)

*BaseClogger*
07-13-2008, 04:39 PM
both

redsmetz
07-13-2008, 04:44 PM
I chose "wait" (thanks for giving that option), but I'm not adverse to moving some guys like Griffey or Weathers, but I'd still like to keep Dunn and I'd like to see Arroyo continue on his improvement. (I'd add more, but I've got to get dinner on)

red-in-la
07-13-2008, 04:53 PM
You're right, it is complicated. I don't see that anything has changed. The Reds GM should consider trades if it improves the talent of the organization. That's what any GM should do. I get the feeling that some around here think we'll acquire significant riches if we trade away our veterans. I look at what we've gotten in the past and it seems to me that we're most likely to get players like Marcus McBeth, Scott Winchester, Tyler Pelland, Phil Dumatrait and Matt Belisle rather than Aaron Harang. The Harang deal involved a starting outfielder with good numbers who was signed cheaply. I think it's also fair to say that Harang exceeded the ceiling he arrived with. Kudos to him.

It's not worth it to trade Affeldt, Hairston and Weathers for AAAA players like Belisle and McBeth.

If I'm Walt I'll seek offers for any of my veterans but I'd only trade them if I think I'm getting something of value in return, such as Bagwell for Andersen or Smoltz for Alexander.

Was Guillen under a LTC contract when trade for Harang? Seems to me he was going to be a FA at the end of the season......which in my mind, makes him another Adam Dunn. Couldn't you get a Harang-type player for Dunn?

dougdirt
07-13-2008, 04:54 PM
Was Guillen under a LTC contract when trade for Harang? Seems to me he was going to be a FA at the end of the season......which in my mind, makes him another Adam Dunn. Couldn't you get a Harang-type player for Dunn?

Harang was a throw in type in that deal. No one saw what he is now coming back when that trade went down.

BuckeyeRedleg
07-13-2008, 04:57 PM
Forget I said anything.

Same old stuff.

Reds/Flyers Fan
07-13-2008, 05:01 PM
This one loss makes a huge difference. 2 under and 5 back in the WC race would have been nice. 4 under is nothing more than pretender status.

And to add insult to injury, one of the Reds big bargaining chips (Jerry Hairston) is now injured.

Tom Servo
07-13-2008, 05:09 PM
What exactly would we buy if we were buyers?

Sea Ray
07-13-2008, 05:19 PM
Was Guillen under a LTC contract when trade for Harang? Seems to me he was going to be a FA at the end of the season......which in my mind, makes him another Adam Dunn. Couldn't you get a Harang-type player for Dunn?


Guillen was going to be a FA but the difference between him and Dunn is he was making pennies and Dunn is making over $2mill per month.

HokieRed
07-13-2008, 06:32 PM
I think it is very important to sell, beginning with Arroyo, whose contract is a major impediment to the Reds getting better over the next couple years. This team is no contender for anything; it's important to stay realistic; we may be able to move a very bad contract here when somebody else may think a marginal pitcher like Arroyo will help them make the playoffs. I doubt it will be possible, but it's critical to try.

Joseph
07-13-2008, 06:35 PM
Harang was a throw in type in that deal. No one saw what he is now coming back when that trade went down.

I'll give you that no one expected him to become the ace/number 1 he is, but he was far from a throw in type. He was the main part of that trade, not an afterthought.

Raisor
07-13-2008, 07:51 PM
As of this minute, the it looks like it's going to take 90 wins for the Wild Card. Reds need to go 44-22 the rest of the way to hit that.

.660 win percentage.

Not really sure that's doable, so I'd be selling.

klw
07-13-2008, 08:44 PM
Both but keep in mind buying doesn't have to just be with a mind to this year. An example that comes to mind was when the Cards picked up C Carpenter. The example may be wrong but it comes to mind.

Unassisted
07-13-2008, 09:06 PM
Sell anything that isn't nailed down and start flying white flags around the stadium at GABP so that no fan can claim to be surprised and disappointed when the trades start happening.

redsmetz
07-13-2008, 09:54 PM
Harang was a throw in type in that deal. No one saw what he is now coming back when that trade went down.

Yes, that's correct; as I recall Joe Valentine was the main piece to that trade, although I'm not sure I'd call him a throw in. Valentine was who we really wanted when you go back and look at the reporting then. BTW, Valentine played Independent ball last year at Long Island, but is pitching at AA Reading in Philly's system this season, although he's only been in four games. He's 28, so that doesn't look good for him.

In answer to the earlier question, Guillen was a free agent and signed with Anaheim during the off season.

bucksfan2
07-13-2008, 09:59 PM
I think you do both. The reds aren't in a fire sale type mode. Rather they are in a building mode. There is a young cheap core that is being built. The likes of Bruce, Votto, Phillips, Encarnacion, Volquez, Cueto, Bailey, Thompson, Keppinger, Burton, and Brey all should be key contributers now and into the future. Cordero isn't going anywhere because of his no trade and he is a pretty good closer. Griffey isn't going anywhere because who is going to take him? Arroyo may have a chance but do you really give up a 200 innings 4.00 ERA type pitcher? Dunn can be moved but the reds will demand a lot. I don't see another team offering what the reds want.

When everyone on RZ wants to get rid of Freel, Valentine, and the likes of overpaid underperforming players, what do you think other GM's see? To be honest I don't see Freel being healthy by the deadline so I don't see him moving at all. Valentine would bring back cash. With the exception of Harriston there really isn't anyone on the roster who doesn't fall under the long term plans of the club.

I don't see the reds doing much during the next month. I think most of the trades that they should/can/will make are trading off one area to improve the club in another. The deadline is used to gear teams up for the playoff chase. The reds don't have a whole lot to sell but at the same time aren't that far off from being a competitive team.

Caveat Emperor
07-13-2008, 10:47 PM
There's no reason to wait two weeks to decide anything. The game is 3.5 months old. We're not going to learn anything new in the next two weeks that we don't know already. It's not a contender and they shouldn't make any decisions as if they are.

Yup.

But, having said that, there really isn't much to "sell" -- a couple of salary dumps that can be made, and maybe a Weathers / Hairston (were he healthy) quick flips you can do for a few middle of the road prospects -- but nothing really that can bring back great return.

The Reds can also look to buy for the future right now by looking to acquire undervalued or underperforming veterans (think: Adam Dunn on some other team) that teams out of contention are trying to sell. Or, perhaps, bringing in a guy on a contract year and trying to extend him before the season ends. That would be a very Walt-type strategy for the team to employ going into the deadline.

fearofpopvol1
07-13-2008, 10:56 PM
I don't think the loss today makes or breaks anything as someone else implied. It would've been nice, but it's not the end of the world. The fact that the Reds hung around as long as they did against 1 of the best pitchers in baseball in a critical game said a lot. Burton being unavailable hurt.

Give it 2 weeks and see where the Reds are then before making a decision.

HokieRed
07-13-2008, 11:02 PM
Arroyo's ERA is 5.97. Kyle Lohse's, for comparison, is 3.39 (He's 11-2); Braden Looper's is 4.25 (He's 9-7). Replacing Arroyo for 22 million over the next two should not be that difficult for Walt. Trading Arroyo should be priority #2 for Walt, just after releasing Corey Patterson and Javy Valentin.

REDREAD
07-13-2008, 11:14 PM
There's no reason to wait two weeks to decide anything. The game is 3.5 months old. We're not going to learn anything new in the next two weeks that we don't know already. It's not a contender and they shouldn't make any decisions as if they are.

Yep, hopefully Walt has been working the phones for the past two weeks.

There's no way this team is a wildcard contender. Sell whoever you aren't going to bring back next year. Obviously, don't give them away, but shop them around the league.

Worry about next year, this year is done.

HokieRed
07-13-2008, 11:48 PM
No doubt Walt's real problem is that much that we would like to sell interests no buyers. So we might see a move of Weathers, Affeldt, Ross, Hairston, or Keppinger, but it's hard to see any of these guys bringing anything that would greatly affect the team's future. Moving Arroyo is very desirable, IMHO, but his absurd contract will be seen for what it is by other clubs too. So at this point I just hope Walt protects the core of the team and maybe picks up a prospect or two. If he manages to do more than that, then he's a genius.

IslandRed
07-13-2008, 11:51 PM
Both but keep in mind buying doesn't have to just be with a mind to this year. An example that comes to mind was when the Cards picked up C Carpenter. The example may be wrong but it comes to mind.


The Reds can also look to buy for the future right now by looking to acquire undervalued or underperforming veterans (think: Adam Dunn on some other team) that teams out of contention are trying to sell. Or, perhaps, bringing in a guy on a contract year and trying to extend him before the season ends. That would be a very Walt-type strategy for the team to employ going into the deadline.

Good points. It's often forgotten that when the Cardinals swung the deadline deal for McGwire, they were already out of the race. They were buying, but for the next year, not the current one.

MrCinatit
07-14-2008, 03:18 AM
An easy sell. I am not ready to buy into any delusions that this team is ready to compete.

WebScorpion
07-15-2008, 11:56 AM
I voted sell, but I don't advocate a fire sale. I'd consider all offers, but carefully weigh whether each move improves the 2009, 2010, and 2011 teams or not. That would be my goal...to improve the future teams without completley dismantling this season. My acquisition targets would be promising minor league Catcher (ahead of Mesoraco in development), SS, CF (ahead of Stubbs in dev) and pitching.