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will5979
07-13-2008, 10:39 AM
Is there anyway the fans could petition the front office to sign AD long term? Now I've wanted this for a while not just because of last night's game.

Having Dunn here long term gives us a special Red to follow that came up through the farm system such as Bench, Rose, Larkin, etc. Players like this only come around once in a blue moon and if Dunn could ever learn to spread the ball around my Lord what a dominating player he would become.:beerme:

RedsFanInBama
07-13-2008, 10:50 AM
He's never going to learn to spread the ball around. He is what he is.

Now that doesn't mean you don't re-sign him. I wouldn't mind seeing him back simply because of his offensive production. That isn't going to be replaced. The question is with his and Griffey's salary freed up, can you get two guys who are better for your team? Because you aren't going to get Dunn-like production from any single player.

I guess the question is, can you better improve your team by having Adam Dunn back and having $15 million freed up with Griffey gone (more if Arroyo gets dealt) to spend in the FA market or if you don't have Dunn back and have in excess of $30 million? The FA market this year doesn't seem that great so re-signing Dunn might be the best option.

ChatterRed
07-13-2008, 11:10 AM
I'd rather throw $20 million at Teixeira, stick him on 1B, move Votto to LF, sign Hairston for CF and leadoff, stick Bruce in RF, and put Keppinger at SS.

CF Hairston
SS Keppinger
1B Teixeira
RF Bruce
2B Phillips
LF Votto
3B EE
C Bako/Ross

RedsFanInBama
07-13-2008, 11:19 AM
Signing Tex would be fantastic. He would put up huge numbers in GABP. There will be a lot of competition for him and we could get out-bid by the Yanks/Sox.

I'm fine for signing Hairston back to the team, but I have to think his numbers are going to slide back toward his career averages at some point. But he's fine as a Ryan Freel type where he can fill in at multiple positions even if he doesn't work out as your regular CF.

will5979
07-13-2008, 11:20 AM
Plus I want to buy a Reds jersey but I don't want to buy one of some player that is going to be traded. I already have a Dunn shirt and I have been the wearing the crap out of it cause I'm afraid I won't be wearing it soon! There is really no one else on the Reds that I want a jersey of.

NarrowStairs
07-13-2008, 11:29 AM
Boras is going to try to get Tex nearly $23MM next year. That's a quarter of our payroll.
No thanks.
He's not that good.

ChatterRed
07-13-2008, 11:45 AM
Boras is going to try to get Tex nearly $23MM next year. That's a quarter of our payroll.
No thanks.
He's not that good.

He's better than Griffey or Dunn. Plus he adds some pop from the right side.

I saw on mlbtraderumors.com that the Braves are considering trading Teixiera now because he walks after the season. Maybe we could trade for him, contingent upon signing him long term?

Lockdwn11
07-13-2008, 12:13 PM
He's better than Griffey or Dunn. Plus he adds some pop from the right side.

I saw on mlbtraderumors.com that the Braves are considering trading Teixiera now because he walks after the season. Maybe we could trade for him, contingent upon signing him long term?

I don't think anyone would argue that he is not but I think what the guy is saying is he's not worth 23 mill. He would also give you pop from the left side as well

RedsFanInBama
07-13-2008, 12:14 PM
$23 million? We could have Dunn for probably $15-16, if not less.

I don't think that his production is that much better than Dunn's. Not enough to warrant that much more money.

Griffey012
07-13-2008, 12:30 PM
I'd rather throw $20 million at Teixeira, stick him on 1B, move Votto to LF, sign Hairston for CF and leadoff, stick Bruce in RF, and put Keppinger at SS.

CF Hairston
SS Keppinger
1B Teixeira
RF Bruce
2B Phillips
LF Votto
3B EE
C Bako/Ross

Throw an extra 5-10 million for 10-20 more rbi's, a higher BA, and a lower OBP. Personally if we have to spend more than 12 million on Dunn i think he needs to go, but we also shouldnt spend any mega deal on someone like Tex, if we are gonna spend 15 million on a hitter it better be A-Rod, Pujols, or someone like that.

Lockdwn11
07-13-2008, 12:31 PM
Throw an extra 5-10 million for 10-20 more rbi's, a higher BA, and a lower OBP. Personally if we have to spend more than 12 million on Dunn i think he needs to go, but we also shouldnt spend any mega deal on someone like Tex, if we are gonna spend 15 million on a hitter it better be A-Rod, Pujols, or someone like that.

I agree with Griffey012

Fullboat
07-13-2008, 12:35 PM
If Dunn is willing to sign for $15-16 for 2-3 years I'd do that in a heartbeat,if he wants the same
money for 4-6 years asta la vista baby.

RedsFanInBama
07-13-2008, 12:36 PM
Personally if we have to spend more than 12 million on Dunn i think he needs to go, but we also shouldnt spend any mega deal on someone like Tex, if we are gonna spend 15 million on a hitter it better be A-Rod, Pujols, or someone like that.
That simply isn't realistic in today's market. If you want a legitimate, proven run-producer, you're going to have to pay.

GoReds33
07-13-2008, 12:38 PM
I was listening to 700 in the car yesterday, and they made a valid point. Nobody seems to want Dunn now, in the middle of a playoff race, so there might not be much of a market for him come the offseason. They went as far as to bring up a three year, 24 million dollar contract. Now I'm not stupid enough to believe he could be had that cheap, but if the market is weak he could be had at a good price.

Maldez
07-13-2008, 12:40 PM
Adam's made it very clear he wants to stay in Cincinnati. Nobody wants to move and go to work everyday with strangers if you're already settled in with good friends.

I'm sure Adam would give the Reds a so-called "home-team discount". The way he's swinging the bat lately, 5 HRs in 6 games, I'd love to have him back.

ChatterRed
07-13-2008, 12:42 PM
Teixeira

Switch hitter
28 years old

Career averages 2002-2007:
34 HR's per year
36 Doubles per year
111 RBI's per year
.284 batting average
.903 OPS
.532 SLG
.371 OBP
Averaged 130 games per year.

Dunn
28 years old
2001-2007

39 HR's per year
30 Doubles per year
95 RBI's per year
.247 career average
.381 OBP
.521 SLG
.902 OPS

Better hitter, slightly less HR's (which probably increase in GABP), more RBI production, move a more qualified outfielder to LF to replace Dunn's ugly fielding. Gives us both RH and LH pop.

Lockdwn11
07-13-2008, 12:45 PM
If Dunn is willing to sign for $15-16 for 2-3 years I'd do that in a heartbeat,if he wants the same
money for 4-6 years asta la vista baby.

I would agree with this as well.

RedsFanInBama, I think paying Dunn 15-16 mill over 4-6 years is unrealistic for the small market Reds. The Dunn you see today will not be the same player in 5-6 years

RedsFanInBama
07-13-2008, 12:49 PM
I would agree with this as well.

RedsFanInBama, I think paying Dunn 15-16 mill over 4-6 years is unrealistic for the small market Reds. The Dunn you see today will not be the same player in 5-6 years

I never said we should even sign Dunn. I simply said what we could have him for.

Lockdwn11
07-13-2008, 12:54 PM
I never said we should even sign Dunn. I simply said what we could have him for. I also think that Dunn will be pretty much the same player in 6 years. 32 is far from old.


I guess we will have to wait and see on that one.If dunn isn't moved to first his 270lbs will take its toll on his knees running around in the outfield but that just my opinion and by the way Dunn will be 34 in 6 years

RedsFanInBama
07-13-2008, 12:58 PM
Yeah I just realized my math sucks. 34 still isn't that old. My biggest issue with signing him is that his defense absolutely sucks and maybe it's wrong to think this, but I still think that defense is a big part of the game.

Lockdwn11
07-13-2008, 01:01 PM
Yeah I just realized my math sucks. 34 still isn't that old. My biggest issue with signing him is that his defense absolutely sucks and maybe it's wrong to think this, but I still think that defense is a big part of the game.

I agree with you on that 100%

FlightRick
07-13-2008, 01:52 PM
I was listening to 700 in the car yesterday, and they made a valid point. Nobody seems to want Dunn now, in the middle of a playoff race, so there might not be much of a market for him come the offseason. They went as far as to bring up a three year, 24 million dollar contract. Now I'm not stupid enough to believe he could be had that cheap, but if the market is weak he could be had at a good price.

This is, increasingly, becoming my hope, too. As I look deeper into it, I am convinced that Dunn's production is not as easily replaceable as many might hope; but at the same time, the Reds are a franchise who cannot afford to make certain types of contract offers (i.e. the kind that commit them more than 5 free agent years to any player less than the reincarnated zombie love child of Ruth and Gehrig; the calculus becomes fuzzier if the Reds had a shot at a younger player where they could go 5-7 years, but with buying out a 2-3 arb years).

If there truly, honestly, genuinely is little-to-no interest for Dunn in the trade market, however, then we can begin to hope against hope that Dunn will be amenable to extending 3-4 years at a reasonable rate. To paraphrase Indiana Jones: it ain't the dollars, honey, it's the years.

That's where Teixeira is actually a double whammy when considered as a suitable replacement for Dunn: not only will he be $5-8m more expensive per year, but he'll be getting a minimum of 6 years, which is not something the Reds can, would, or should do. Especially if you consider positional issues: the theory here is "give Dunn's money to Tex, move Votto to LF." OK, that works for 2-3 years, but we've still got Tex for 4 more at $20m per, and assuming all goes well, we'll have Yonder Alonso ready for the big time by 2011. That's three 1B, one already displaced to the OF and on the brink of getting expensive, one sucking up almost one-quarter of our total team salary, and a third who might end up their offensive equal but making league minimum.

Color me Less-than-Enthused. But Dunn for 3-4 years, and no more expensive than what he is this year? If we catch a break and the market for him is that weak, you may color me Willing-to-Negotiate.

Such a deal would work for The Now; and it would work for The Future, right in step with the basic timeline for when we'd need to consider Alonso's readiness and Votto's getting-expensive-ness.

Chi-Town Red
07-13-2008, 02:10 PM
Teixeira

Switch hitter
28 years old

Career averages 2002-2007:
34 HR's per year
36 Doubles per year
111 RBI's per year
.284 batting average
.903 OPS
.532 SLG
.371 OBP
Averaged 130 games per year.

Dunn
28 years old
2001-2007

39 HR's per year
30 Doubles per year
95 RBI's per year
.247 career average
.381 OBP
.521 SLG
.902 OPS

Better hitter, slightly less HR's (which probably increase in GABP), more RBI production, move a more qualified outfielder to LF to replace Dunn's ugly fielding. Gives us both RH and LH pop.
why would you count Dunn's 2001 numbers? he only played in 60 games that year

Griffey012
07-13-2008, 02:16 PM
That simply isn't realistic in today's market. If you want a legitimate, proven run-producer, you're going to have to pay.

That was kind of my point. There is absolutely no way you get an A-rod or a Pujols for 15 million. Basically us small market Reds can't afford to go and sign a free agent big bat. We either have to trade for one or just wait for say, Jay Bruce to fully develop. Best case scenario would be another situation like when we acquired Griffey. Getting a proven stud way under market value for some reason. Granted it didn't work out as planned, it is proof why we shouldnt drop 20 million on someone like Tex.

Brutus
07-13-2008, 02:17 PM
I'm a huge Teixeira fan. And I agree with the poster that said he would rather sign Tex and move Votto to left. But if Teixeira really does command $23 mil per year, for $7-8 million cheaper, I'd rather have Dunn who has more power, nearly an identical OPS and a better on-base percentage. All things being equal, I take Teixeira, but if the money isn't equal, I'm not sure it's enough of an upgrade to justify that much more dough.

kpresidente
07-13-2008, 02:46 PM
Throw an extra 5-10 million for 10-20 more rbi's, a higher BA, and a lower OBP. Personally if we have to spend more than 12 million on Dunn i think he needs to go, but we also shouldnt spend any mega deal on someone like Tex, if we are gonna spend 15 million on a hitter it better be A-Rod, Pujols, or someone like that.

Uh...Teixeira's 3-year OBP is higher than Dunn's (.382 vs. .379) and so is his SLG (.550 vs .527). Plus his SLG is driven by doubles as much as HR, and his OBP is driven by hits more than walks, which means he'll be a more consistant run producer than Dunn. That's why he gets more RBI every season. Tex averages 24 more RBI per 162 games than Dunn. To put that in perspective, if you got that kind of increase from all 8 position players, you'd average almost 1.2 more runs per game, which is about the difference between our team and the current league-leading offense (Texas).

I'd at least make a run at Tex before I signed Dunn. You get a much better defensive player and a switch hitter (important given that Bruce and Votto are lefties. No more Phillips batting cleanup).

Now, if Dunn could be had for $12 million (unlikely, since he's making more than that this season), then I'd take Dunn in a heartbeat. But if we're looking at $15-16M vs. $20M for Tex, I'd rather have Tex.

Ghosts of 1990
07-13-2008, 03:08 PM
SIgned a million times over. I love Dunner.

kpresidente
07-13-2008, 03:11 PM
more power, nearly an identical OPS and a better on-base percentage.

If you have more power and better OBP, it's statistically impossible to end up with identical OPS.

FlightRick
07-13-2008, 03:12 PM
But if we're looking at $15-16M vs. $20M for Tex, I'd rather have Tex.

Dunn getting up over $15m is right about the point where I'd then vote to have neither. But it's a near thing, and I'd certainly be inclined to investigate more closely before rendering a final verdict.

And not to repeat myself or beat a dead horse, but: this is NOT just about dollars.

This is about years. Potentially as few as 3 for Dunn, almost certainly 7 for Teixeira.

This is about positional considerations. Potentially a 2011 with one still-productive LF, one productive (but soon to get expensive) 1B, and another promising 1B slugger making the league minimum, if we keep Dunn. Potentially a 2011 with three 1B, one already out-of-position in LF and one making a ludicrous amount of money in 2011 if we chase Teixeira.

In the one-on-one Battle To Replace Dunn, it turns out that Dunn himself squashes Teixeira. Well: potentially (it's still dependent on this idea that the market for Dunn is sufficiently weak that we can retain him for dollars less than $60m and, more importantly, years less than 5).

Plus: I've decided that re-signing Dunn has another benefit... namely: at worst, I'll just have to put up with the same tittering loons having this same Dunn Argument over and over again for a few years. Which is a devil I know, and seemingly can live with.

And which beats the hell out of the devil I don't know, but which I assume will take the form of something like soul-sapping, thrice-weekly "Dunn HR/Currently OPS'ing .900/Our Front Office Is Retarded" threads not unlike all the unspeakably pointless Josh Hamilton threads we're seeing this year. Ugh.

Orodle
07-13-2008, 03:14 PM
Plus I want to buy a Reds jersey but I don't want to buy one of some player that is going to be traded. I already have a Dunn shirt and I have been the wearing the crap out of it cause I'm afraid I won't be wearing it soon! There is really no one else on the Reds that I want a jersey of.


thats why i went with the old school Eric Davis jersey :)

Griffey012
07-13-2008, 04:35 PM
Uh...Teixeira's 3-year OBP is higher than Dunn's (.382 vs. .379) and so is his SLG (.550 vs .527). Plus his SLG is driven by doubles as much as HR, and his OBP is driven by hits more than walks, which means he'll be a more consistant run producer than Dunn. That's why he gets more RBI every season. Tex averages 24 more RBI per 162 games than Dunn. To put that in perspective, if you got that kind of increase from all 8 position players, you'd average almost 1.2 more runs per game, which is about the difference between our team and the current league-leading offense (Texas).

I'd at least make a run at Tex before I signed Dunn. You get a much better defensive player and a switch hitter (important given that Bruce and Votto are lefties. No more Phillips batting cleanup).

Now, if Dunn could be had for $12 million (unlikely, since he's making more than that this season), then I'd take Dunn in a heartbeat. But if we're looking at $15-16M vs. $20M for Tex, I'd rather have Tex.

I never said it wasn't, I was using their career numbers. Also in 2006 Dunn had a bit of an outlier with a .360ish obp and the other 4 surrounding years has been mid to high .380s, which is gonna give the nod to Dunn as far as OBP. To add 24 runs per position would take a payroll the size of the cubs red sox and yankees type. We can't do that, but i bet we could boost our run production by much more adding an extra 5-8 million to another spot and keeping Dunn.

Ultimately I would spend about 12 million on Dunn maximum and probably 15 mil on Tex max

kpresidente
07-13-2008, 11:15 PM
I never said it wasn't, I was using their career numbers. Also in 2006 Dunn had a bit of an outlier with a .360ish obp and the other 4 surrounding years has been mid to high .380s, which is gonna give the nod to Dunn as far as OBP. To add 24 runs per position would take a payroll the size of the cubs red sox and yankees type. We can't do that, but i bet we could boost our run production by much more adding an extra 5-8 million to another spot and keeping Dunn.

Ultimately I would spend about 12 million on Dunn maximum and probably 15 mil on Tex max

Well, if you're saying Tex and his 24 RBI is only worth $3 million more than Dunn, then at that rate we could get those 1.2 runs/game for a mere $24 million. That's not exactly Yankees territory.

I'm not trying to be argumentative, I'm just saying I think Tex would be worth a bit more than $3 million over Dunn.

Griffey012
07-13-2008, 11:24 PM
I also think that spending anymore than 15 million on 1 player has the potential to financially strap our ballclub. Another issue is that with Tex we would have to give at least 5 or 6 years where with Dunn we could probably go 2-3 years. I would love a big bat, bigger than Dunn, but with the free agent market this upcoming year, I don't think it is possible without damaging the club money wise.

I would agree Tex is worth more than 3 million more than Dunn, he is right up there with with the best run producers in the game, but I don't think we should spend that much.

ChatterRed
07-13-2008, 11:37 PM
Ultimately I would spend about 12 million on Dunn maximum and probably 15 mil on Tex max

......and you would miss out on both. Welcome to being a small market club. I guess we will never sign any QUALITY free agents because we won't pay enough. If we would spend the money on a QUALITY FREE AGENT who is still young enough to avoid injury and has a history of producing and staying healthy........maybe it would be worth it?

Green Bay overspent for Reggie White years ago and he put them in the Super Bowl and made them a yearly contender.

If the Reds would make a few wise choices, they might actually get back to contending.

RedsFanInBama
07-13-2008, 11:46 PM
This year's FA market just isn't that appealing. I'd re-sign Dunn, then spend the $15-$24 million you free up by not having Griffey and Arroyo (if we trade him - isn't he due $9 million next year?) to try and patch over a couple of catcher, SS, and CF.

And what is EV's contract situation? It might be wise to go ahead with some of that money and try to lock up Volquez to something long-term. How long until he is due a raise?

Griffey012
07-14-2008, 08:41 AM
......and you would miss out on both. Welcome to being a small market club. I guess we will never sign any QUALITY free agents because we won't pay enough. If we would spend the money on a QUALITY FREE AGENT who is still young enough to avoid injury and has a history of producing and staying healthy........maybe it would be worth it?

Green Bay overspent for Reggie White years ago and he put them in the Super Bowl and made them a yearly contender.

If the Reds would make a few wise choices, they might actually get back to contending.

With the market for Dunn being as thin as it sounds, 3yrs - 36 million seems like a real possibility. Tex is the only heart of the order free agent in this class who is young without injury history. But still the issue lies in strapping the ball club financially if he does get hurt. Looking back to the Griffey trade and signing, he was out an extended period of time once in his career and that was from slamming into a wall and breaking his wrist, he looked like someone who would stay healthy. I just don't want to spend 18-20 million on one guy.

I'd rather get us 2 2nd tier free agents, then 1 top tier free agent right now.

BLEEDS
07-14-2008, 09:20 AM
Throw an extra 5-10 million for 10-20 more rbi's, a higher BA, and a lower OBP.

now THAT is a good use of $10M - NOT!!! you think he gives you 15 more RBi's just by being in THIS lineup?!?! PFFT!!!



Personally if we have to spend more than 12 million on Dunn i think he needs to go, but we also shouldnt spend any mega deal on someone like Tex, if we are gonna spend 15 million on a hitter it better be A-Rod, Pujols, or someone like that.

So you want A-Rod to take a $12M paycut?!?! And Pujols to sign for $15M - arguably the best hitter in the game??!?!

That's barely HALF of what they're worth.

While you're at it, let's sign Jake Peavy for $4M a year!!!

PEACE

-BLEEDS

44Magnum
07-14-2008, 09:20 AM
I would sign a petition not to keep Dunn!

Ahhhorsepoo
07-14-2008, 10:42 AM
44 I am with you...

BTW any of you hacks who think dunn would honestly sign for 12 million a year on a contract.. just WOW!!!!

If he commands anything above 10 million cut him loose..

levydl
07-14-2008, 11:35 AM
But come on guys, Teixeira's never taken his team to the playoffs! He's a born loser, just like Dunn, right?

bgwilly31
07-14-2008, 11:50 AM
Dunn will make a deal for the reds. Thats for sure.

I want to see DUNN on this team minus griffey and then see how he plays.

A dunn griffey combo is almost like watching a

Patterson Ross combo like yesterday.

It just doesnt work out.

Griffey012
07-14-2008, 12:03 PM
now THAT is a good use of $10M - NOT!!! you think he gives you 15 more RBi's just by being in THIS lineup?!?! PFFT!!!



So you want A-Rod to take a $12M paycut?!?! And Pujols to sign for $15M - arguably the best hitter in the game??!?!

That's barely HALF of what they're worth.

While you're at it, let's sign Jake Peavy for $4M a year!!!

PEACE

-BLEEDS


That was my point, we can't get those guys for 15 million, so lets not waste it on someone else who isn't worth it. Im not stupid. And if you read my post I was saying that paying an extra 5-10 million for the added production was not worth it. Maybe you should go back read through the posts, and then harp on where my stance is. Because I'd rather spend much less and keep Dunn then spend a lot more for a little more production.

BLEEDS
07-14-2008, 12:10 PM
That was my point, we can't get those guys for 15 million, so lets not waste it on someone else who isn't worth it. Im not stupid. And if you read my post I was saying that paying an extra 5-10 million for the added production was not worth it. Maybe you should go back read through the posts, and then harp on where my stance is. Because I'd rather spend much less and keep Dunn then spend a lot more for a little more production.

I agree with you on that part. I also think he out-produces Tex in this lineup - especially if Dunn isn't in it! Those RBI numbers are inflated by him playing in the AL BANDBOX IN Arlington for so long...

PEACE

-BLEEDS

Ahhhorsepoo
07-14-2008, 02:40 PM
A good defensive outfield saves runs.. saving our pitchers.. and saving loses.. good or better defense equals championships.. not out slugging everyone if you can't play your position much better than a varsity starter in high school.. Give me the landry kid from LSU in this outfield.. that guy saves at least 3 or 4 runs a week..

Kingspoint
07-14-2008, 03:42 PM
Fortunately, management knows better and Dunn won't be a RED next year, thank God.

Nasty_Boy
07-14-2008, 04:15 PM
I don't think it's set in stone that Dunn won't be a Red next season. He needs to be, because this offense will miss his production. I love Tex but there is no way the Reds should overpay for his production, especially with Votto and Alonso in the picture.

As far as defense, I can tell that some people's hatered for Dunn has blinded them from the truth. I thought for most of the season that his defense had improved, and the other day the fielding bible released their rankings and Dunn has been above average in LF this season. I think this has to do with his knee finally being healthy. He's clearly getting to more balls and making more tough plays.

Griffey012
07-14-2008, 04:21 PM
I don't think it's set in stone that Dunn won't be a Red next season. He needs to be, because this offense will miss his production. I love Tex but there is no way the Reds should overpay for his production, especially with Votto and Alonso in the picture.

As far as defense, I can tell that some people's hatered for Dunn has blinded them from the truth. I thought for most of the season that his defense had improved, and the other day the fielding bible released their rankings and Dunn has been above average in LF this season. I think this has to do with his knee finally being healthy. He's clearly getting to more balls and making more tough plays.

I agree with you about the defense. I used to harp on Dunn's defense big time, and now I don't cringe near as much when I see a sharp liner to deep left field.

Ahhhorsepoo
07-14-2008, 05:50 PM
wow.. you guys must not watch these games.. you are right.. that play the other night in chicago has NEVER happened.....

ChatterRed
07-14-2008, 05:57 PM
I say we trade EE, Votto, and Homer to the Braves for Chipper and Teixeira. World Series! Here we come!!!!! ;)

Red Forman
07-14-2008, 08:28 PM
I would sign a petition not to keep Dunn!

Right on!


Get rid of the bum!!!!

Nosirrah
07-14-2008, 08:59 PM
The things I constantly read in this (these) threads:

"We need to get rid of Dunn and get more RH pop."
With Dunn and Griffey gone, there's no LH pop! What's the point? Votto and Bruce arguably have less combined pop than Phillips and EE. Throw in Ross as your starting catcher, and you're approaching RH dominant.

"$12M a year is overpaying for Dunn."
It's only overpaying if you can spend the money on better replacement(s). Tiexiera is the only FA option that approaches Dunn's production, and he'll be more expensive and difficult to sway from NY/LA/Chicago. If you could GUARANTEE that you could replace Dunn's production in 2 OF spots, SS, and C for $12M and with NO options in the minors, then well, you'd be the 2009 version of the Rays - all the right players at all the right positions. That's a rarity...

"Dunn's defense is terrible."
Agreed, Dunn isn't a fabulous fielder. But it's not for lack of effort and hustle, and he plays pretty smart (he knows his range). Maybe Votto would be a better option, but none of us know. If it were me, I'd (sign him and) move Dunn to 1B, give Votto a try in LF, and set up Alonso to take over full time at the end of Dunn's contract (say 4 years). If Alonso's ready before then, Dunn would be meaty trade bait again.

I get as frustrated as anyone over Dunn's inadequacies, but I don't think anyone (most importantly Walt) has any idea of how to replace him, even with an extra $12M in his pocket.

And there is something to be said for being a homegrown talent. My favorite Reds players are Bench and Larkin, and it's awesome to know that they were homegrown and played their entire careers for the Reds.

AFalcon10
07-17-2008, 05:50 PM
I think we really have to be realists here and make the right decision and that is to trade Dunn before years end. Even if the Reds try to sign him I think Dunn is packing. Another team will offer him more money (probably overpay for him) and I think Dunn himself has been ready for a change of scenary since his buddy Austin was sent packing. The main fact is that we simply wont be able to pay him what he will demand and because of that we really need to get something in return for him or else we will just lose him for nothing.

Ahhhorsepoo
07-17-2008, 09:19 PM
he will prolly walk b/c we wont sign his other buddy griff to an extension.

Blue
07-17-2008, 10:06 PM
he will prolly walk b/c we wont sign his other buddy griff to an extension.

He'll probably walk because he gets treated like crap in Cincinnati.

Ahhhorsepoo
07-18-2008, 03:17 PM
He'll probably walk because he gets treated like crap in Cincinnati.

I could only hope that is the case, because then i would know i did my part in getting rid of the garbage..

reds1869
07-18-2008, 03:34 PM
wow.. you guys must not watch these games.. you are right.. that play the other night in chicago has NEVER happened.....

Right, because no one else in baseball ever commits an error. And of course Dunn is routinely making such plays, right? :rolleyes:

Oxilon
07-18-2008, 04:05 PM
I'd rather throw $20 million at Teixeira, stick him on 1B, move Votto to LF, sign Hairston for CF and leadoff, stick Bruce in RF, and put Keppinger at SS.

CF Hairston
SS Keppinger
1B Teixeira
RF Bruce
2B Phillips
LF Votto
3B EE
C Bako/Ross

If anything has been proven over the course of the past six or seven years, it's been that Hairston is a bench player. Signing him to be a starter is just asking for trouble (not to mention he seems to be injury prone). Chris Stynes, Norris Hopper, and now Scott Hairston. Just because we caught lightening in a bottle one season doens't mean it's due to repeat. We've been down this road before...sign him to a one year contract to be a bench player, anything else and we're doomed to be regreting it later.

Ahhhorsepoo
07-21-2008, 11:06 AM
I could only hope that is the case, because then i would know i did my part in getting rid of the garbage..

Dunn made another play last night, where he gave up a hit, that if he had tried at all, or had any skill he would have gotten to it.. he froze for at least 2 seconds (if he can't run a 2 second 5 yard dash he is seriously handicapped... then the ball hit 8 feet infront of him.. while there is playing conservative to ensure they dont get a triple.. his play astounds me.. I have been to 28 home games this year.. and he has given AT LEAST 1 free base in more than half the games, or allowed runners to advance because of his noodle arm, he made one decent throw all year at home getting the runner at second a few nights ago.. two times I can think of he directly allowed multiple runs and runners to advance.. this guys defense is soooo bad I can't stand watching him.. seriously if you get a DECENT left fielder and put him out there you will all realize how many balls he doesnt get to, and how many times he miss plays the ball..

Someone tell me why it Jay Bruce plays balls off the wall better.. IN THE SAME CORNER.. and he has played what? 10 games out there? and Dunn has played almost 1000 out there and still looks like he is in his first game with that wall behind him...

I did however have a lady 4 rows in front of me wet herself during the game, so besides getting upset at the lack of Dunns defensive skill, I got to laugh ALOT at a 30+ year old lady who wet herself because she was sooo drunk.. she then proceeded to ask her guy if he thought less of her..

Griffey012
07-21-2008, 11:20 AM
If you have ever played left field, a low liner is the most difficult ball to field. Because based on the trajectory it is very difficult to determine how hard and deep it is going. A lot of times the softer shallow liners read almost exactly the same as deep hard liners off the bat. We have seen many times fielders come charging in on those balls and go over their heads, so at least if he wasn't sure he went the safe route instead of allowing a 3 bagger.

Griffey012
07-21-2008, 11:21 AM
On another note, based off the rumors with the trade market based around Dunn, we are probably going to be just as well off getting the 2 first rounders than getting 2 prospoects, if we aren't going to keep him.

Ahhhorsepoo
07-21-2008, 11:28 AM
NO ONE WANTS HIM.. thats the same tune we have heard for 3 years.. I have played a decent level of baseball.. and played outfield i know how a liner is hard to judge.. but to freeze as long as he did.. sorry but most kids even in legion ball don't even get burned as bad as he does..

dunn doesn't play conservative he just doesn't go for balls very often..

still no one has answered why they are ok with him still not knowing if there is a wall behind him, or a black hole..

freestyle55
07-21-2008, 11:52 AM
Actually, Dunn has not been horrible in the outfield this year...check out what Baseball Prospectus has to say about Dunn's defense this year...

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=7829



Prospectus: During the broadcast of Saturday night's game, the Mets' announcing team began to discuss the fact that Adam Dunn (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/pecota/dunnad01.php) was leading National League left fielders in putouts. Though Dunn is actually second in the NL as of this writing (behind Milwaukee's recently-converted corner outfielder Ryan Braun (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/player_search.php?search_name=Ryan+Braun)) it still may take a second for that thought to sink in, thanks to the image of him we all carry around in our minds. The Reds left fielder is a big, plodding guy, both in the outfield and on the base paths, and he's been accused of being incapable of properly fielding left in the past thanks to poor conditioning. This season appears to be different though—not only is Dunn second in the NL in putouts (and fourth in the majors) but he's also fifth in the majors in John Dewan's Revised Zone Rating. Out of the qualifiers, Matt Holliday (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/pecota/hollima01.php) leads the league with a .925 RZR, Carlos Quentin (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/pecota/quentca01.php) is in last at .826, and Adam Dunn is comfortably above the average at .903, and even has 25 plays made outside of his zone. Looking at our own FRAA (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=FRAA) tells the same story as Dunn is at +6—a result of both this and his .314 EqA (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=EqA) (second best of his career)—and is on pace to have the best year on his resume right before hitting free agency


Not sure if this part is from Lance's blog or the rest of the article that I can't see since I'm not a subscriber, but it was at least on Lance's blog...


Teams interested in signing Dunn should take note of his defensive play in order to see if he's truly progressed, or if this is a short, half-season blip on the statistical radar. Is Dunn taking better routes to the ball to make up for his lack of speed? Has he improved his conditioning to the point where he can get from Point A to Point B quickly without the use of a bullpen car? If he's even an average outfielder defensively, he's one of the more productive players in the league thanks to a bat that ranks with the best (even when he hits .230) and if he's able to replicate this year's success in the long run, he's going to be worth at least a full win with the glove on the year, something I didn't expect to be typing in my lifetime.


But we all know that Dunn is the anti-christ for this team, so I'm sure this doesn't matter...

Ahhhorsepoo
07-21-2008, 12:03 PM
he is improved.. but he still takes bad lines, just before it was going in about the opposite direction... sorry, but all these stats and everything about zone ratings and such.. they simply are not right.. go and sit in the seats right behind the wall.. like first row.. and watch a game.. he takes TERRIBLE LINES to the ball.. and STILL CAN'T PLAY THE WALL BEHIND HIM!!!

freestyle55
07-21-2008, 12:13 PM
So if he's improved, then he's not the worst left fielder in history, and thus not costing us 500 losses every season with his defense...how about the fact that he's made more putouts in left field than the other 28 guys below him...if he's so horrible, wouldn't you think there might be a few more guys above him?

So, he's now an average to below average defensive left fielder who has one of the best bats in the league this year...and we want to run that out of town because????

Griffey012
07-21-2008, 12:15 PM
NO ONE WANTS HIM.. thats the same tune we have heard for 3 years.. I have played a decent level of baseball.. and played outfield i know how a liner is hard to judge.. but to freeze as long as he did.. sorry but most kids even in legion ball don't even get burned as bad as he does..

dunn doesn't play conservative he just doesn't go for balls very often..

still no one has answered why they are ok with him still not knowing if there is a wall behind him, or a black hole..

He also may have not even picked up the ball well at all off the bat, or may have lost it through the course of travel. A background of 25,000+ fans makes losing it a lot more likely. And as far as the wall, the wall is coated with padding until about 6 inches off the ground where it is cement. A ball can take a soft landing off the padding, ricochet off the cement, and bounce who knows where off the scoreboard. In the last few games, I've noticed Griffey have so problems with balls in right field because of weird hops.

And I am ok with him out there, because I don't worry when a ball is hit his way, I only worry when he tries to do the things fans like you expect he should do, such as dive for balls, try to catch everything, etc. Not to mention for every misplayed line drive that results in a single instead of maybe an out or maybe a triple, he hits about 5 home runs.

Ahhhorsepoo
07-21-2008, 12:29 PM
He also may have not even picked up the ball well at all off the bat, or may have lost it through the course of travel. A background of 25,000+ fans makes losing it a lot more likely. And as far as the wall, the wall is coated with padding until about 6 inches off the ground where it is cement. A ball can take a soft landing off the padding, ricochet off the cement, and bounce who knows where off the scoreboard. In the last few games, I've noticed Griffey have so problems with balls in right field because of weird hops.

And I am ok with him out there, because I don't worry when a ball is hit his way, I only worry when he tries to do the things fans like you expect he should do, such as dive for balls, try to catch everything, etc. Not to mention for every misplayed line drive that results in a single instead of maybe an out or maybe a triple, he hits about 5 home runs.

EVERY MISPLAYED BALL HE HITS 5 BALLS?! I would say it is at least a 1:1 if not slightly in the favor of the misplayed balls..

EVERY PARK IN MAJOR LEAGUE BASEBALL has wierd things about their wall.. the other outfielders figure out what it is..

The difference between dunn and griffey.. dunn stands 20 feet from the wall because he HAS NO CLUE where its going.. Griffey runs for the spot where the ball should go, and never gets burned by it going by him.. it just sometimes dies as it hits one of the nooks in that corner.. right field corner is alot harder to judge than the left field..

Just because adam dunn isnt as bad as carlos lee, doesnt mean we as fans need to accept whats going on with it, he still isnt in the top HALF of left fielders.. not to get into a political argument.. BUT our country is the greatest in the world.. WE STILL HAVE FLAWS and try to fix them.. we don't sit on our butt and just figure.. well we're the best so we don't need to improve anything..

Griffey012
07-21-2008, 12:39 PM
EVERY MISPLAYED BALL HE HITS 5 BALLS?! I would say it is at least a 1:1 if not slightly in the favor of the misplayed balls..

EVERY PARK IN MAJOR LEAGUE BASEBALL has wierd things about their wall.. the other outfielders figure out what it is..

The difference between dunn and griffey.. dunn stands 20 feet from the wall because he HAS NO CLUE where its going.. Griffey runs for the spot where the ball should go, and never gets burned by it going by him.. it just sometimes dies as it hits one of the nooks in that corner.. right field corner is alot harder to judge than the left field..

Just because adam dunn isnt as bad as carlos lee, doesnt mean we as fans need to accept whats going on with it, he still isnt in the top HALF of left fielders.. not to get into a political argument.. BUT our country is the greatest in the world.. WE STILL HAVE FLAWS and try to fix them.. we don't sit on our butt and just figure.. well we're the best so we don't need to improve anything..

I actually said every misplayed line drive such as the one from the game. And with your "political argument" or joke thereof, you are saying Adam Dunn has not and does not try to improve his game defensively? If you really think he has not improved while in Cincy and especially over the last few years you really just don't have a clue.

Fon Duc Tow
07-21-2008, 12:49 PM
Here is what puzzles me:

All these people who say "Dunn isn't worth the money."

Why do you say that? Are you fans of Bob C's accountant or are you fans of the Cincinnati Reds?

There is no salary cap in baseball. So the only question should be, does Dunn make the Reds a better team with him on it, and can he be replaced with anyone better?

Yes he makes the Reds a better team with him on it and no I don't see anyone better to replace him with.

But "is he worth the money?" Ask Bob C's accountant. :rolleyes:

Ahhhorsepoo
07-21-2008, 02:51 PM
I actually said every misplayed line drive such as the one from the game. And with your "political argument" or joke thereof, you are saying Adam Dunn has not and does not try to improve his game defensively? If you really think he has not improved while in Cincy and especially over the last few years you really just don't have a clue.

he has improved.. but not to the point he should be even considered servicable for his production.. give me a guy who hits 20 homers 75 rbis,with a 280 ba and .350 obp, and plays good or better D and I would much rather have him playing in GABP.. sorry.. but the 8 or 10 mil for that guy is much better spent than it would be on dunn..

texasdave
07-21-2008, 02:55 PM
Here is what puzzles me:

All these people who say "Dunn isn't worth the money."

Why do you say that? Are you fans of Bob C's accountant or are you fans of the Cincinnati Reds?

There is no salary cap in baseball. So the only question should be, does Dunn make the Reds a better team with him on it, and can he be replaced with anyone better?

Yes he makes the Reds a better team with him on it and no I don't see anyone better to replace him with.

But "is he worth the money?" Ask Bob C's accountant. :rolleyes:

If Bob C. (and krivjocketty) thought he was worth the money, or money was not an issue, wouldn't they already have signed him to an extension?

Griffey012
07-21-2008, 02:56 PM
hmm, 7 or 8 mil? did you see the contract Eric Byrnes got last year? What about Aaron Rowand? Guys who are often injured, play good D, and put up career numbers in a contract year. Yeah they got 3 yrs 30 mil and 5 yrs 60 mil. At least Dunn is dependable and has consistent production.

Ahhhorsepoo
07-21-2008, 03:05 PM
yup and like us the teams who tried to overpay are seeing that money go right down the tube..

theres a good and bad side about dunn not having market value..

bad.. he cant get us good young players..
good.. his price is being driven down by a false basement in the market..

so if this continues i think the reds might actually be able to get him for number close to his option.. which i could ALMOST live with.. anything over 13 mil tho.. I dont want it..

just because I am not bob c.'s accountant doesnt mean i don't know they would be overpaying if they offered him what his value could have been had he had an even mediocre or good year..

heck why not make a great deal to get dejesus and/or gathright from KC?

Griffey012
07-21-2008, 03:44 PM
yup and like us the teams who tried to overpay are seeing that money go right down the tube..

theres a good and bad side about dunn not having market value..

bad.. he cant get us good young players..
good.. his price is being driven down by a false basement in the market..

so if this continues i think the reds might actually be able to get him for number close to his option.. which i could ALMOST live with.. anything over 13 mil tho.. I dont want it..

just because I am not bob c.'s accountant doesnt mean i don't know they would be overpaying if they offered him what his value could have been had he had an even mediocre or good year..

heck why not make a great deal to get dejesus and/or gathright from KC?


You just said in a previous post you wanted a player who hit .280 with 20 hrs and 75 bi's who played good defense for 8-10 million. That description is those 2 players right there

So now your claiming those two teams over paid, well Eric Byrnes is making 10 million a year for 3 years, that is right in your price range. So which is it? do you want a player like that or not?

Ahhhorsepoo
07-21-2008, 04:10 PM
both of those players weren't way overpaid.. they were just paid to keep up with market value.. rowand was paid less than he would have been if he was a always healthy commodity.. they both also have gold glove caliber defense.. I wasn't directly talking about those two teams blowing money..

just cause they are in that price range doesnt mean they are what i would want..

and to be completely honest.. both of those players are better than dunn.. and they weren't even paid 14 mil a year..

Jr's Boy
07-21-2008, 04:38 PM
In my opinion a few American League teams are going to offer Dunn big bucks to DH next year.Needless to say the Reds can't compete with the payrolls of the major market teams,so at least we will get draft picks.

Griffey012
07-21-2008, 05:02 PM
both of those players weren't way overpaid.. they were just paid to keep up with market value.. rowand was paid less than he would have been if he was a always healthy commodity.. they both also have gold glove caliber defense.. I wasn't directly talking about those two teams blowing money..

just cause they are in that price range doesnt mean they are what i would want..

and to be completely honest.. both of those players are better than dunn.. and they weren't even paid 14 mil a year..

So not being able to stay healthy doesnt factor in to a players value? Who has been more valuable this year, Dunn or Eric Byrnes hurt once again? We might as well dish out an extension to Ryan Freel, he is basically the same players as Byrnes, just less healthy, but just as good.

gilpdawg
07-21-2008, 05:13 PM
I don't think it's set in stone that Dunn won't be a Red next season. He needs to be, because this offense will miss his production. I love Tex but there is no way the Reds should overpay for his production, especially with Votto and Alonso in the picture.

As far as defense, I can tell that some people's hatered for Dunn has blinded them from the truth. I thought for most of the season that his defense had improved, and the other day the fielding bible released their rankings and Dunn has been above average in LF this season. I think this has to do with his knee finally being healthy. He's clearly getting to more balls and making more tough plays.

Shhh, don't let facts get in the way of a good Dunn bashing. :D

gilpdawg
07-21-2008, 05:15 PM
I could only hope that is the case, because then i would know i did my part in getting rid of the garbage..
Careful what you wish for. If we don't resign Dunn we are either doomed to overpay for somebody else, or we will have NO offense next year.

Ahhhorsepoo
07-21-2008, 05:31 PM
no offense??

Bruce, Votto, EE, Griff, B-Phill, Platoon of Catchers..

they are all able to hit 25 homers and have 80 rbis.. some with more potential.. assuming griff comes back.. if not.. thats still 5 players with over 25 homers.. add in the other 4 spots(at about 10 homers per spot..) and that puts us at 175 homers.. and about 750 runs..

we replace dunn WITH ANYONE who hits 20 homers in another park that puts us over 200 homers next year..

sorry but having 5 OTHER people in the lineup with 25 homer power, tells me we DONT need a 40 homer player as much as EVERYONE thinks..

Dunn might provide SOME offense.. but he is not alex rodriguez, david ortiz, or really any of the top hitters.. he is replaceable especially in an offense that has plenty of power..

THERE ARE OTHER WAYS TO SCORE RUNS BESIDES HOMERS!!

Quick stat..

Reds..
Homeruns.. 114
Runs.. 441

Division Leading Cubs..
Homeruns.. 110
Runs.. 518

Mets..
Homeruns.. 93
Runs.. 481

Dodgers..
Homeruns.. 70
Runs.. 406

Diamondbacks
Homeruns.. 95
Runs.. 435


Phillies are the only ones in the league with a homerun to run ratio close to ours that are doing well..

They have
Homeruns.. 136
Runs.. 492

THERE ARE MORE WAYS TO SCORE THAN HOMERS people..

gilpdawg
07-21-2008, 06:10 PM
no offense??

Bruce, Votto, EE, Griff, B-Phill, Platoon of Catchers..

they are all able to hit 25 homers and have 80 rbis.. some with more potential.. assuming griff comes back.. if not.. thats still 5 players with over 25 homers.. add in the other 4 spots(at about 10 homers per spot..) and that puts us at 175 homers.. and about 750 runs..

we replace dunn WITH ANYONE who hits 20 homers in another park that puts us over 200 homers next year..

sorry but having 5 OTHER people in the lineup with 25 homer power, tells me we DONT need a 40 homer player as much as EVERYONE thinks..

Dunn might provide SOME offense.. but he is not alex rodriguez, david ortiz, or really any of the top hitters.. he is replaceable especially in an offense that has plenty of power..

THERE ARE OTHER WAYS TO SCORE RUNS BESIDES HOMERS!!

Quick stat..

Reds..
Homeruns.. 114
Runs.. 441

Division Leading Cubs..
Homeruns.. 110
Runs.. 518

Mets..
Homeruns.. 93
Runs.. 481

Dodgers..
Homeruns.. 70
Runs.. 406

Diamondbacks
Homeruns.. 95
Runs.. 435


Phillies are the only ones in the league with a homerun to run ratio close to ours that are doing well..

They have
Homeruns.. 136
Runs.. 492

THERE ARE MORE WAYS TO SCORE THAN HOMERS people..
Griff won't be back, and Phillips, while a good player, is over-rated by just about everybody on this board. Our catchers don't do a thing offensively. If you think this team can score 750 runs next year without Dunn when they are only on pace to score 714 NOW, this season, then you are way off the pier. Removing Dunn from this lineup would be like removing Ryan Howard from the Phils lineup, only Dunn is having a better season.

Griffey012
07-21-2008, 06:56 PM
haha yea you know how you score runs by not hitting homeruns? You get on base somehow, Dunn's possible greatest quality. : )

gilpdawg
07-21-2008, 06:58 PM
I'm just going to stop arguing about it. The Dunn haters will never change their minds even if he walked on water and hit 100 homers. I'm glad these people aren't running the team.

Griffey012
07-21-2008, 07:02 PM
I'm just going to stop arguing about it. The Dunn haters will never change their minds even if he walked on water and hit 100 homers. I'm glad these people aren't running the team.

It brings entertainment during the work day and up until the nightly reds game.

Chi-Town Red
07-21-2008, 07:48 PM
If anybody knew how to get on base besides Dunn..the guy would have 150 RBI a year

757690
07-21-2008, 08:05 PM
I am not a Dunn hater, he is one of my favorite players, and two boxes of 1999 Bowman Chrome that I paid $300 for just for a chance at his rookie card should be enough proof.

I agree with all the guys who want to resign him that he is the Reds most productive hitter and one of the leagues most productive hitters. I also agree that the Reds will not be able to find a left fielder that can match Dunn's productivity for much less than what Dunn will get in free agency.

That said, I still don't want to resign him right now. Here is why.

First, I would wait until he is a free agent and see what he gets offered. I would offer him arbitration, and would hope he accepted it, but would not be upset if he turned it down.

I think the best thing is for the Reds to have Dunn for one to two more years. That is because there really are no other options to replace him right now, but there will be in one to two years. The Reds have quite a few outfield prospects that should be ready then: Todd Fraizer, Daniel Dorn, Chris Valaika, Shaun Cumberland and Drew Stubbs. I think that in a year or two, at least one of these guys will be ready to replace Dunn. They may not be as productive as Dunn, but they should be close. They won't hit as many home runs as Dunn, but they should have similar OPS. Also, in 2010 and 2011, who knows what free agents will be available? There is a good chance there will be someone who the Reds can sign even if none of these prospects pan out.

Second, if he turns them down, there are plenty of guys who the Reds can sign that can fill in for a year or two that can be very productive, even if not as productive as Dunn. Casey Blake, Brian Giles, Nomar Garciaparra, Raul Ibanez and Juan Rivera, are at the top of the list. Again, these guys would not be as productive as Dunn, but they don't need to be.

Next year, the Reds will have Jay Bruce and Joey Votto playing full time and with more experience. They will not have Griffey in the three hole. it really looks like EE is becoming that power hitter the Reds were hoping for. But most importantly, they will go get a CF who can hit better than Patterson.

One of the main reasons why the Reds offense was so pathetic at the beginning of the year was CF. Patterson was as bad as a regular player can be. There is no way the Reds CF next year will be as pitiful as Patterson was. And when Patterson was replaced by Bruce and Hairston, the offense came alive. Now, Bruce will replace Griffey next year, which is a huge improvement, and whoever the Reds get in CF will be a huge improvement over Griffey. That player could be Hairston, or it could be Coco Crisp, or Mark Kotsay, or someone else. These players would not have great OPS, but they all will be huge improvements over Patterson.


So basically, an outfield of say Blake, Hairston and Bruce, or Nomar, Crisp and Bruce, will be better than an outfield of Dunn, Patterson and Griffey, which is how this season started, and about as good as an outfield of Dunn, Bruce and Griffey, which is what the Reds have now.

So the Reds don't need to match Dunn's production next year, they will get a big boost from having Bruce and whoever they get in CF replace Griffey and Patterson. If they can keep Dunn for one year or two, great, if not, filler can be found until he will be replaced by youngsters in a year or two.

Ahhhorsepoo
07-21-2008, 08:42 PM
Dunn having a better season than Howard?!

What logic are you basing this on.. other than OBP and Slugging.. and number of walks, the strikeout to AB ratio is about the same.. Hoard is BETTER IN EVERYTHING..

Kingspoint
07-21-2008, 08:43 PM
I don't think it's set in stone that Dunn won't be a Red next season. He needs to be, because this offense will miss his production. I love Tex but there is no way the Reds should overpay for his production, especially with Votto and Alonso in the picture.

As far as defense, I can tell that some people's hatered for Dunn has blinded them from the truth. I thought for most of the season that his defense had improved, and the other day the fielding bible released their rankings and Dunn has been above average in LF this season. I think this has to do with his knee finally being healthy. He's clearly getting to more balls and making more tough plays.

I can't tell from this what you want. Any contract Dunn signs is going to be for at least 5 years and probably 6 or 7 years.


Do you want Dunn in Left Field or do you want Votto in LF and Alonzo at 1B beginning in 2010?

gilpdawg
07-21-2008, 08:53 PM
Dunn having a better season than Howard?!

What logic are you basing this on.. other than OBP and Slugging.. and number of walks, the strikeout to AB ratio is about the same.. Hoard is BETTER IN EVERYTHING..

Dunn-.230/.387/.550/.937

BABIP is only .233, which means he's been unlucky.


Howard-.236/.325/.512/.837

BABIP is .274, which is quite average, but he's been through the roof with BABIP his whole career, so he's regressing to the mean now.

Those are the only stats that really matter. RBIs are higher for Howard, but they'd better be, what with Rollins and Utley in front of him in the lineup. Compare those two to Griffey circa 2008 and Phillips, it's no contest.

757690
07-21-2008, 08:54 PM
Dunn having a better season than Howard?!

What logic are you basing this on.. other than OBP and Slugging.. and number of walks, the strikeout to AB ratio is about the same.. Hoard is BETTER IN EVERYTHING..

if you run their seasons through a variety of run estimators (base runs, ERP, RC) they are having almost identical seasons. Howard has more RBI's but that is mostly because he bats 3rd in front of Rollins and Utley. In my opinion, they are almost clones of each other.

757690
07-21-2008, 08:58 PM
Dunn-.230/.387/.550/.937

BABIP is only .233, which means he's been unlucky.


Howard-.236/.325/.512/.837

BABIP is .274, which is quite average, but he's been through the roof with BABIP his whole career, so he's regressing to the mean now.

Those are the only stats that really matter. RBIs are higher for Howard, but they'd better be, what with Rollins and Utley in front of him in the lineup. Compare those two to Griffey circa 2008 and Phillips, it's no contest.


I may be old fashioned, but I believe that a player whose BABIP is low is not hitting the ball well.

gilpdawg
07-21-2008, 09:04 PM
I may be old fashioned, but I believe that a player whose BABIP is low is not hitting the ball well.

Yeah, in beer league softball.:D

757690
07-21-2008, 09:33 PM
Yeah, in beer league softball.:D

Since Dunn is the ultimate Beer League Softball player, I'll give you that one.

Griffey012
07-21-2008, 09:44 PM
Dunn having a better season than Howard?!

What logic are you basing this on.. other than OBP and Slugging.. and number of walks, the strikeout to AB ratio is about the same.. Hoard is BETTER IN EVERYTHING..

Where do I begin...
First off Howard's strikeout to walk ratio = 2.6/1
Dunns strikeout to walk ration = 1.35/1
"the strike out to walk ratio is about the same" ha ha

so basically Dunn is almost putting up: .400 with 56hrs, 126 rbi's with an obp of about .900 since in your world twice as much is almost the same.

And let's look at Rollins, Utley in front of you, and Burrell behind you lets you come up to the plate 215 times with runners on base out of about 430 total plate appearences. Howard has 71 rbi's in those PA's. or .33 RBI's/PA

Dunn has 140 PA's with Runners on base and has 45 rbi's in those situations.
Or .32 RBI's/PA. Put Pat Burrell behind Dunn and watch those numbers pile up.

And the reason I used plate appearances is because some people don't appreciate Dunn's ability to walk, therefore a walk does nothing here besides hurt the ratio.

Ahhhorsepoo
07-21-2008, 10:08 PM
Where do I begin...
First off Howard's strikeout to walk ratio = 2.6/1
Dunns strikeout to walk ration = 1.35/1
"the strike out to walk ratio is about the same" ha ha

so basically Dunn is almost putting up: .400 with 56hrs, 126 rbi's with an obp of about .900 since in your world twice as much is almost the same.

And let's look at Rollins, Utley in front of you, and Burrell behind you lets you come up to the plate 215 times with runners on base out of about 430 total plate appearences. Howard has 71 rbi's in those PA's. or .33 RBI's/PA

Dunn has 140 PA's with Runners on base and has 45 rbi's in those situations.
Or .32 RBI's/PA. Put Pat Burrell behind Dunn and watch those numbers pile up.

And the reason I used plate appearances is because some people don't appreciate Dunn's ability to walk, therefore a walk does nothing here besides hurt the ratio.

strikeout to AB does not equal strikeout to walk..

Griffey012
07-21-2008, 10:20 PM
strikeout to AB does not equal strikeout to walk..

My bad, I misread it...makes much more sense now.

Any how, who does that tell outside of the fact they both strike out a lot? It doesn't gauge any other offensive qualities. It only quantifies that Howard strikes out more and walks less.

improbus
07-21-2008, 10:29 PM
You know, look at the Reds Leaders page on baseball reference.
Batting Average Phillips .278
On-base % Dunn .387
Slugging % Dunn .550
OPS Dunn .937
Games Phillips 97
At Bats Phillips 388
Plate Appearances (approx.) Phillips 420
Runs Phillips 56
Hits Phillips 108
Total Bases Phillips 184
Doubles Encarnacion 20
Triples Phillips 5
Home Runs Dunn 28
RBI Dunn 63
Bases on Balls Dunn 75
Strikeouts Dunn 101
Stolen Bases Phillips 20
Singles Phillips 69
Adjusted OPS+ Dunn 141
Runs Created Dunn 70
Adjusted Batting Runs Dunn 20
Batting Wins Dunn 1.9
Extra-Base Hits Dunn 40
Times on Base Dunn 149
Offensive Win% Dunn .702
Hit By Pitch Encarnacion 6
Sac. Hits Hairston 7
Sac. Flies Dunn and Phillips 5
Intentional Walks Griffey 13
Grounded into Double Plays Phillips 11
Caught Stealing Patterson 5
Power/Speed Number Phillips 17.8
At Bats per Strikeout Phillips 5.9
At Bats per Home Run Dunn 10.7
Outs Phillips 300

Out of the 35 categories, Dunn and Phillips lead in every category except Doubles (EE), HBP (EE), Sacrifices (Hairston), IBB's (Griffey), and Caught Stealing (Patterson). We argue about these two until we are blue in the face, but they are NOT the reason that the Reds are under .500.

757690
07-21-2008, 10:42 PM
In 2002 Jimmy Haynes and Elmer Dessens lead the Reds in nearly every pitching category. They were not part of the problem, but the fact that they were the Reds two best pitchers exemplified what the problem was.

I am not saying that Dunn and Phillips are as bad as Haynes and Dessens, but they should not be the leaders of any offense. They should be key players, but not the leaders.

BLEEDS
07-22-2008, 01:00 AM
The Reds have quite a few outfield prospects that should be ready then: Todd Fraizer, Daniel Dorn, Chris Valaika, Shaun Cumberland and Drew Stubbs. I think that in a year or two, at least one of these guys will be ready to replace Dunn. They may not be as productive as Dunn, but they should be close. They won't hit as many home runs as Dunn, but they should have similar OPS.

I think I may have found my new sig line.

As soon as I stop laughing so hard that I quit crying so I can wipe the tears from my face, I will see how I can shorten it enough to fit...

PEACE

-BLEEDS

757690
07-22-2008, 03:24 AM
I think I may have found my new sig line.

As soon as I stop laughing so hard that I quit crying so I can wipe the tears from my face, I will see how I can shorten it enough to fit...

PEACE

-BLEEDS

If you would stop laughing and do some research you will see the current OPS of the players I mentioned.

Dorn .899
Valaika .883
Frazier .879
Cumberland .827 (probably a stretch, but he has blossomed lately)
Stubbs .797 (The one with the most potential, and who spent most of the year in the OPS suppressed FSL)

Dunn's lifetime OPS is .903 In two years, he will be 30 which is when most hitters start to decline. Even assuming he doesn't, I think it is safe to say that at least one of these guys will be able to maintain a .850-.900 OPS in the majors in two years.
The reason why you don't want to rely on minor league talent to replace major league talent is that only around 50% of prospects can maintain their minor league numbers once they reach the majors. The Reds only need one in three if you only include the top three, and one in five if you include all of them. It also might end up being a platoon of two of these guys. I could very easily be wrong, but I like my odds.

Kingspoint
07-22-2008, 03:46 AM
If you would stop laughing and do some research you will see the current OPS of the players I mentioned.

Dorn .899
Valaika .883
Frazier .879
Cumberland .827 (probably a stretch, but he has blossomed lately)
Stubbs .797 (The one with the most potential, and who spent most of the year in the OPS suppressed FSL)

Dunn's lifetime OPS is .903 In two years, he will be 30 which is when most hitters start to decline. Even assuming he doesn't, I think it is safe to say that at least one of these guys will be able to maintain a .850-.900 OPS in the majors in two years.
The reason why you don't want to rely on minor league talent to replace major league talent is that only around 50% of prospects can maintain their minor league numbers once they reach the majors. The Reds only need one in three if you only include the top three, and one in five if you include all of them. It also might end up being a platoon of two of these guys. I could very easily be wrong, but I like my odds.

'dems good odds.

improbus
07-22-2008, 08:11 AM
'dems good odds.

Is that Roger Dorn?;)

BLEEDS
07-22-2008, 11:23 AM
If you would stop laughing and do some research you will see the current OPS of the players I mentioned.


And how many of those are in AAA or in AA for that matter? How about their "career" OPS?!?!

Yeah, I'm sure one of these AA "sluggers" will be OPS-ing .900 in The Bigs in A YEAR, or TWO at tops... :thumbdown

Even Jay Bruce, AAA Vunderkind, Minor League Player of the Year, Top Prospect in ALL OF BASEBALL, who "should have been brought up in 2007", is STRUGGLING to OPS .800 in his first year in the Bigs.

But, I'm sure Drew Stubbs will be able to do it, and "replace" Adam Dunn.

Remarkable.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

Ghosts of 1990
07-22-2008, 12:22 PM
Dunn is once again having a big july. This guy needs re-signed. I think Jocketty might be as stupid as Krivsky was. Only with a lucky track record.

BLEEDS
07-22-2008, 01:19 PM
For a quick reference check on Drew Stubbs, check this out:

http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=70038&page=11

for a guy destined to OPS in the .900 range in "a year or two" seems the analytics SURELY don't support it.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

757690
07-22-2008, 03:52 PM
For a quick reference check on Drew Stubbs, check this out:

http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=70038&page=11

for a guy destined to OPS in the .900 range in "a year or two" seems the analytics SURELY don't support it.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

I put Stubbs at the the bottom of the list, since he is doing the worst currently, but he is the guy on that list with the most talent. Minor league hitters develop into better hitters all the time. During Chase Utley's first three years, he had a .750 OPS, David Wright's first three years were around .770. It happens all the time, especially with high draft picks.
The thing about minor league hitters is that you never know about them. But my point was that the Reds have 3-5 solid prospects who could play left field for them in 2010 or 2011. And the odds are that one of them should be able to put up solid numbers in the majors, in the .850-.900 OPS range by that time. Stubbs may or may not be one of them, but again, the odds are that one of the names I mentioned will.

As for Bruce, these guys are all older than Bruce, and by 2010 and especially 2011 will be much older and will have had much more time to develop. I am not saying that any of these guys will be ready next year, which is why I talked about the need to sign a stop gap like Blake or Nomar to give these guys time to develop, if Dunn is not signed (I actually would love it if they offered him arbitration and he accepted). Maybe bring them up at the end of next year, or have them platoon with a veteran in 2010, there are a lot of options.

And again, maybe I am wrong, maybe all of them will become like Brandon Larson. All I am saying is that I like my odds that at least one of them, by 2010 or 2011 will reach their potential in the majors.

BLEEDS
07-22-2008, 06:02 PM
so is 2010 next year or two years from now? 2011? Just checkin...

My insertion of Bruce was because of his TALENT and his DOMINATION of AAA. Two things ALL of the other guys, COMBINED, don't match up to.

Hopefully by Jay Bruce's 2nd year - 2015 - he'll be ready to replace Junior.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

757690
07-22-2008, 07:33 PM
so is 2010 next year or two years from now? 2011? Just checkin...

My insertion of Bruce was because of his TALENT and his DOMINATION of AAA. Two things ALL of the other guys, COMBINED, don't match up to.

Hopefully by Jay Bruce's 2nd year - 2015 - he'll be ready to replace Junior.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

If you read my posts, I am very clear that I don't think any of these guys will be ready by next year. So when I say "a year or two", obviously I am refering to 2010 and 2011. Since this season is almost over, I think that it is perfectly logical to refer to 2010 and 2011 as a year or two away.
Regardless, whether it is one or two years, or two to three years, the Reds have the talent in the minor leagues to replace Dunn by 2010 or 2011 by the latest. That was my point and was made perfectly clear in the posts.

As for Bruce, you can't compare him to these guys. He is a one of a kind talent, and it just because these other guys are not as gifted as him, does not mean that they will develop like him or worse than him, or better than him. Every player is different, and develops differently.
Anyway I am not saying that 2010 or 2011 will be these guys first years in the majors, I am saying that that is when they should be ready to produce like a solid, major league, starting left fielder.

BLEEDS
07-23-2008, 01:59 AM
If you read my posts, I am very clear that I don't think any of these guys will be ready by next year. So when I say "a year or two", obviously I am refering to 2010 and 2011. Since this season is almost over, I think that it is perfectly logical to refer to 2010 and 2011 as a year or two away.
Regardless, whether it is one or two years, or two to three years, the Reds have the talent in the minor leagues to replace Dunn by 2010 or 2011 by the latest. That was my point and was made perfectly clear in the posts.

You are not clear at all. To me "a year or two" means 12-24 months. not 24 to 36+. Bad Math? IF so, it explains your second point.



As for Bruce, you can't compare him to these guys. He is a one of a kind talent, and it just because these other guys are not as gifted as him, does not mean that they will develop like him or worse than him, or better than him. Every player is different, and develops differently.
Anyway I am not saying that 2010 or 2011 will be these guys first years in the majors, I am saying that that is when they should be ready to produce like a solid, major league, starting left fielder.

SO, now you're saying "solid, major league, starting left fielder" - I thought you said they would OPS ~.900. I suppose you think that is one in the same?

I'd better check my reference for my quote...

and as for Bruce, and them not being in the majors for their first year - so who do you think is going to be playing in the Majors next year from that group? This IS still the same organization that kept Votto and Bruce in the minors while they were DESTROYING AAA correct? I don't think ANY of the guys you listed have even PLAYED more than 50 games in AAA, yet you think THESE guys are going to make the jump from AA to the Bigs next year?!?!?!

Again, just trying to follow your clear and consistent posts/points.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

757690
07-23-2008, 03:47 AM
You are not clear at all. To me "a year or two" means 12-24 months. not 24 to 36+. Bad Math? IF so, it explains your second point.



SO, now you're saying "solid, major league, starting left fielder" - I thought you said they would OPS ~.900. I suppose you think that is one in the same?

I'd better check my reference for my quote...

and as for Bruce, and them not being in the majors for their first year - so who do you think is going to be playing in the Majors next year from that group? This IS still the same organization that kept Votto and Bruce in the minors while they were DESTROYING AAA correct? I don't think ANY of the guys you listed have even PLAYED more than 50 games in AAA, yet you think THESE guys are going to make the jump from AA to the Bigs next year?!?!?!

Again, just trying to follow your clear and consistent posts/points.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

In baseball terms, "a year" means a season, and since this season is almost over, that means not next year, but the year after that. Nowhere else in any of my posts have I said that they will be ready next year. In fact I have said the opposite. The worse you can say about that quote was that I was not clear in my word choice, but what I meant was very clear from the whole post and all other posts on the subject.


I have no idea which ones might be called up sometime next year, only that odds are that they will. Check out this link to what others on this board have to say about it.
http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=70295

And considering that left field is one of, if not the least important fielding positions on the diamond, I would say that if a left fielder does not have a .850-.900 OPS, then he is not a "solid, everyday leftfielder." The only exception would be if he is a leadoff hitter, in which case if his OBP is high, and he steals bases, he doesn't need to have a high SLG. Check around the lleague, I bet most good teams have a left fielder with a .850-900 OPS.

BLEEDS
07-23-2008, 11:25 AM
So, is this season "2 years in the past"?!?!? I'm really confused. I thought we just had the All-Star Break, you know little over half a "season" still left?

So, what you mean is in TWO "SEASONS" from now, or THREE "SEASONS" from now - i.e. "a year or two". Okay.

And, quick check, of ALL Major League Left Fielders, only EIGHT (8) of them OPS over .900, and only THREE (3) more OPS over .850. SO, only ELEVEN (11) Left Fielders, in ALL OF MAJOR LEAGUE BASEBALL are "solid, everyday leftfielders", by your definition. FYI, Adam Dunn is the 4th Leading OPS Left Fielder in all of Baseball.

And, we have 4 guys in MiLB, only one of which is playing in AAA two years ago (now), but one of them should be one of the top 11 OPS-ing Major League Left Fielders in ALL OF BASEBALL by 2010/2011 at the latest? Is THAT your contention?!?!?

PEACE

-BLEEDS

757690
07-23-2008, 02:24 PM
So, is this season "2 years in the past"?!?!? I'm really confused. I thought we just had the All-Star Break, you know little over half a "season" still left?

So, what you mean is in TWO "SEASONS" from now, or THREE "SEASONS" from now - i.e. "a year or two". Okay.

And, quick check, of ALL Major League Left Fielders, only EIGHT (8) of them OPS over .900, and only THREE (3) more OPS over .850. SO, only ELEVEN (11) Left Fielders, in ALL OF MAJOR LEAGUE BASEBALL are "solid, everyday leftfielders", by your definition. FYI, Adam Dunn is the 4th Leading OPS Left Fielder in all of Baseball.

And, we have 4 guys in MiLB, only one of which is playing in AAA two years ago (now), but one of them should be one of the top 11 OPS-ing Major League Left Fielders in ALL OF BASEBALL by 2010/2011 at the latest? Is THAT your contention?!?!?

PEACE

-BLEEDS

I said a most "good" teams have solid everyday left fielder. If you look at the 15 teams above .500, 9 have OPS over .850. That seems like most to me. And yes, I think the odds are good that one of the players I mentioned will be in the majors and have an OPS over .850 in 2010 and 2011.

BLEEDS
07-23-2008, 03:17 PM
I said a most "good" teams have solid everyday left fielder. If you look at the 15 teams above .500, 9 have OPS over .850. That seems like most to me. And yes, I think the odds are good that one of the players I mentioned will be in the majors and have an OPS over .850 in 2010 and 2011.

Don't know what stats you were using, but this quick list (that I referenced earlier) showed 11 MLB LF-ers with OPS over .850 (only 8 over .900):

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/stats/byposition?pos=LF&conference=MLB&year=season_2008&qualified=1&sort=25

only 6 of those teams have records over .500. Of the .900+ OPS guys, only 4 of 8 teams are over .500.
Looks to be roughly "half". Not sure if that counts for "most" or not, I'm having a hard time understanding your definitions and terminology.

Still not understanding how 2010 is a year from now, I'd sure hate to pass over 2009 completely, but hey that's in my world I guess...

PEACE

-BLEEDS

thatcoolguy_22
07-23-2008, 04:01 PM
Bleeds drop the in a year or 2 deal...

In all reality, the odds of either a Valakia, Dorn, Cumberland, or Frazier replacing all of Dunn's production by 2011, is minimal at best. However not resigning Dunn and allowing a kid to take his place could open up an additional 16mil that could be used to help compensate the loss of Dunn in LF.


On a sidenote- in a dream world Dunn would resign with the Reds for 4 years around 70million.

757690
07-23-2008, 04:03 PM
Don't know what stats you were using, but this quick list (that I referenced earlier) showed 11 MLB LF-ers with OPS over .850 (only 8 over .900):

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/stats/byposition?pos=LF&conference=MLB&year=season_2008&qualified=1&sort=25

only 6 of those teams have records over .500. Of the .900+ OPS guys, only 4 of 8 teams are over .500.
Looks to be roughly "half". Not sure if that counts for "most" or not, I'm having a hard time understanding your definitions and terminology.

Still not understanding how 2010 is a year from now, I'd sure hate to pass over 2009 completely, but hey that's in my world I guess...

PEACE

-BLEEDS


First, I already explained quite clearly what I meant, and that in the post you are taking the quote from, I made clear I was talking about 2010 and 2011. At worst, I made a poor word choice. If you read the quote in context, you will understand that. I am sorry that you can't understand that. There is nothing more I can do on that front.

Here is my list of LF with OPS over .850

Manny - Red Sox
Damon - Yankees
Burrell - Phillies
Willingham - Marlins (.844, technically no, but good enough for me)
Quentin - White Sox
Thames - Tigers
Soriono - Cubs
Braun - Brewers
Crawford - Rays (leadoff exception that I mentioned, and he really is a center fielder, but is playing left because of Upton)

That is 9 out of the 15 teams that are over .500. And Duncan in STL, is having an off year, and has a career OPS of around .900.

Anyway, regardless of how many there are, if the left fielder on my team was OPS consistently below .850, I would look for a new left fielder, unless he was a lead off hitter with great defense and speed.

Fon Duc Tow
07-23-2008, 04:09 PM
If Bob C. (and krivjocketty) thought he was worth the money, or money was not an issue, wouldn't they already have signed him to an extension?

yes. yes I believe they would have.

Small market teams need to buy low and sell high.

How much you want to bet Dunn has a career year and THEN the Reds offer him a contract?

If they were going to sign him, it should have been before the season. Now they lose either way:
1. Dunn has career year - Reds pay too much for him as a result = Reds lose
2. Dunn has career year - Reds let him walk = Reds lose
3. Dunn resumes Dunn-like stats = Reds lose

BLEEDS
07-23-2008, 05:30 PM
First, I already explained quite clearly what I meant, and that in the post you are taking the quote from, I made clear I was talking about 2010 and 2011. At worst, I made a poor word choice. If you read the quote in context, you will understand that. I am sorry that you can't understand that. There is nothing more I can do on that front.

Here is my list of LF with OPS over .850

Manny - Red Sox
Damon - Yankees
Burrell - Phillies
Willingham - Marlins (.844, technically no, but good enough for me)
Quentin - White Sox
Thames - Tigers
Soriono - Cubs
Braun - Brewers
Crawford - Rays (leadoff exception that I mentioned, and he really is a center fielder, but is playing left because of Upton)

That is 9 out of the 15 teams that are over .500. And Duncan in STL, is having an off year, and has a career OPS of around .900.

Anyway, regardless of how many there are, if the left fielder on my team was OPS consistently below .850, I would look for a new left fielder, unless he was a lead off hitter with great defense and speed.


Holes, Holes, everywhere is Holes...

what happened to "everyday LF-er" ?!?! Wait, let me guess, "poor word choice" ?!?!?

...and .844 is .850 for Willingham, because he was over .850 ONCE in 2006 (.852)
...and .696 is .850 for Crawford, since he's a CF playing LF, but he gets a "leadoff" exception (because that affects OBP and SLG how?!??!) even though Soriano leads off and does just fine in that category
...and in Duncan's case a career .840 is "around" .900 too?!? He had ONE year above .830, which was his OUTLIER year in 2006 which I wager will NEVER be repeated, EVER.
In Contrast, Dunn has had ONE year BELOW .927 OPS in the past 5 years, and it was 2006 when it was .855.

So, you would look for "another" LF-er - let me guess, Manny Ramirez, Johnny Damon, Carlos Lee. Surely all of those guys would be cheaper than Dunn right?!?! No wait, we have Drew Stubbs who should be in this mix of names in a year or two...

This is really interesting to be involved in, you ever tried politics?!?! SPIN SPIN SPIN!!!

So, you are telling me that the Yankees, Red Sox, Cubs, and Phillies can afford to buy/pay for .850/.900 OPS Left Fielders, but everyone else has to just get lucky and get some career journeymen to have career years (Quentin, Thames) or a diamond in the rough rookie (Braun), otherwise you have to bend your rules to fit other guys in (Willingham, Duncan, Crawford), just so you can justify the Reds paying Dunn $13M+ to be the 4th best OPS-ing LF-er in all of MLB, then I guess I can't argue with you. What would be the point.

So your strategy is to hope/pray that one of 4 AA guys can turn into Ryan Braun in 2010/2011.
Again, flawless logic.
That's the kind of logic that will keep the Reds in the cellar waiting for "next year (or two)" which inevitably is 2-3 years away from today - IN PERPITUDE (i.e. FOREVER)!!!
We've been doing it since 1990 if you, and your name, haven't noticed.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

BLEEDS
07-23-2008, 05:36 PM
Bleeds drop the in a year or 2 deal...

In all reality, the odds of either a Valakia, Dorn, Cumberland, or Frazier replacing all of Dunn's production by 2011, is minimal at best.

However not resigning Dunn and allowing a kid to take his place could open up an additional 16mil that could be used to help compensate the loss of Dunn in LF.


I agree with you 100% on the first point.
to the 2nd - what exactly would THE REDS spend $16M on that would "compensate"?
We've seen this before, and I haven't liked the results. I have a tad more faith in Bob C with Jocketty at the helm now, I'll tell you that, but IMO I'd take the .900 OPS-ing Dunn for the next 4-5 years and spend the $12.5M I was spending on Junior to "UPGRADE" (read: not merely compensate) the same areas you might mention.


On a sidenote- in a dream world Dunn would resign with the Reds for 4 years around 70million.

Doesn't have to be a dream world. That's reality and maybe 5 years $75-85M.
A dream world is where you translate AA guys to the Majors to be Top O' The World LF OPS guys in a year or two.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

Fon Duc Tow
07-23-2008, 06:23 PM
Bleeds drop the in a year or 2 deal...




Why? Thats the part that bugged me the most about the post.

Its as if 757690 thinks its ok to just write off 2009 season and he's talking like this season is "almost over" when we are barely past the all-star break. So he is talking about giving up for the next year and a half, so that we will be stronger "in 2010 or 2011."

:thumbdown No way. There is no reason why we should have to tank a season and and half just for the chance to make a run at the playoffs. We aren't the darn Expos for crying out loud. With our payroll we should be able to contend every season.

BLEEDS
07-23-2008, 06:37 PM
Why? Thats the part that bugged me the most about the post.

Its as if 757690 thinks its ok to just write off 2009 season and he's talking like this season is "almost over" when we are barely past the all-star break. So he is talking about giving up for the next year and a half, so that we will be stronger "in 2010 or 2011."

:thumbdown No way. There is no reason why we should have to tank a season and and half just for the chance to make a run at the playoffs. We aren't the darn Expos for crying out loud. With our payroll we should be able to contend every season.


Exactly!!! In a year or three, 2012 - Harang, Arroyo, Cordero, BP will be gone or in their option years, and EE, Votto, Bruce, Volquez, Cueto, and Bailey will all be in Arbitration Years and/or FA eligible. A lot of good some snot nose rookie will do us then when our window is SHUT DOWN.

Our window for winning with a core of young/cheap position players and young/cheap & 2-3 veteran pitchers is SHORT my friends, 2009/2010/2011.
You need a VETERAN, PROVEN big bat in the lineup you can depend upon while everyone else develops and goes through their ups and downs.

Pencil in Dunn for ~40/100/100/100 and a .900 OPS for the next 3-4 years and MAKE A RUN FOR IT. Hopefully we get to the playoffs, get sold out crowds back in Cincinnati and can afford to resign the affore-mentioned young guys and sprinkle in a FA acquisition or two - you know, St. Louis Cardinal style.

2011 is WAAAAAY too late to think about replacing Dunn. Griffey is replaceable, Dunn is not.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

757690
07-23-2008, 07:14 PM
Why? Thats the part that bugged me the most about the post.

Its as if 757690 thinks its ok to just write off 2009 season and he's talking like this season is "almost over" when we are barely past the all-star break. So he is talking about giving up for the next year and a half, so that we will be stronger "in 2010 or 2011."

:thumbdown No way. There is no reason why we should have to tank a season and and half just for the chance to make a run at the playoffs. We aren't the darn Expos for crying out loud. With our payroll we should be able to contend every season.

Read my post again, sir. I said nothing of the sort that you are accusing me of.

I said, the best situation is for the Reds to offer Dunn arbitration and have him accept. The if he turns it down, there are some good one year stop gaps like Blake or Nomar or Giles, that can fill in for a year or two until the young guys are ready. That will save some money and allow the Reds to get a good CF and or C.

I have never and will never believe in "tanking a season." I completely agree with you that the Reds can contend every year.

757690
07-23-2008, 07:42 PM
Holes, Holes, everywhere is Holes...

what happened to "everyday LF-er" ?!?! Wait, let me guess, "poor word choice" ?!?!?

What the hell are you talking about? When and where have I diverged from that statement? WHERE????? I have said that an everyday left fielder should OPS .850. Where in any of my posts have I ever gone away from that????????


...and .844 is .850 for Willingham, because he was over .850 ONCE in 2006 (.852)
...and .696 is .850 for Crawford, since he's a CF playing LF, but he gets a "leadoff" exception (because that affects OBP and SLG how?!??!) even though Soriano leads off and does just fine in that category
...and in Duncan's case a career .840 is "around" .900 too?!? He had ONE year above .830, which was his OUTLIER year in 2006 which I wager will NEVER be repeated, EVER.
In Contrast, Dunn has had ONE year BELOW .927 OPS in the past 5 years, and it was 2006 when it was .855.

Stop nitpicking and address my point. Would you want a left fielder on your team who OPS lower than .850? I know I wouldn't, unless he is great defensively and has a lot of speed.
And this is not a comparison between Dunn and other left fielders! Stop throwing in red herrings!!


So, you would look for "another" LF-er - let me guess, Manny Ramirez, Johnny Damon, Carlos Lee. Surely all of those guys would be cheaper than Dunn right?!?! No wait, we have Drew Stubbs who should be in this mix of names in a year or two...

This is really interesting to be involved in, you ever tried politics?!?! SPIN SPIN SPIN!!!

This coming from the ultimate spin master is hilarious. Just check out your next paragraph. There is so much spin in it that I get dizzy from reading it.



So, you are telling me that the Yankees, Red Sox, Cubs, and Phillies can afford to buy/pay for .850/.900 OPS Left Fielders, but everyone else has to just get lucky and get some career journeymen to have career years (Quentin, Thames) or a diamond in the rough rookie (Braun), otherwise you have to bend your rules to fit other guys in (Willingham, Duncan, Crawford), just so you can justify the Reds paying Dunn $13M+ to be the 4th best OPS-ing LF-er in all of MLB, then I guess I can't argue with you. What would be the point.

Spin away, Bleeds, spin away.


So your strategy is to hope/pray that one of 4 AA guys can turn into Ryan Braun in 2010/2011.
Again, flawless logic.
That's the kind of logic that will keep the Reds in the cellar waiting for "next year (or two)" which inevitably is 2-3 years away from today - IN PERPITUDE (i.e. FOREVER)!!!
We've been doing it since 1990 if you, and your name, haven't noticed.


Nice strawman. You really have this spinning thing down.

My strategy, if you read my first post, is to offer Dunn arbitration and have him accept. The if he turns it down, there are some good one year stop gaps like Blake or Nomar or Giles, that can fill in for a year or two until the young guys are ready. That will save some money and allow the Reds to get a good CF and or C. I believe that by 2010 and 2011 one of the prospects I mentioned will be ready to be a solid everyday left fielder, one that can OPS 850+.

Please address this question, Would you want a left fielder on your team who OPS lower than .850?. Until you do, I have nothing else to add.

Have a nice day. :)

OUReds
07-23-2008, 07:48 PM
There is absolutely zero chance that Dunn accepts arbitration. This is likely his last chance to cash in on a mega contract. Why would he waste one year of his prime and take the risk of a serious injury on a one year arbitration deal? It's just not going to happen.

improbus
07-23-2008, 10:06 PM
The Reds will keep Dunn. He sells tons of jerseys, hits tons of homers, and the Reds are a team that historically is loyal to its own guys. Also, here is the list of 2009 Free-Agent outfielders from Cot's contracts.

Outfielders
Bobby Abreu NYY
Moises Alou NYM
Garret Anderson * LAA
Rocco Baldelli TB
Willie Bloomquist SEA
Emil Brown OAK
Pat Burrell PHI
Endy Chavez NYM
Carl Crawford * TB
Adam Dunn CIN
Jim Edmonds CHC
Cliff Floyd TB
Brian Giles * SD
Ken Griffey Jr. * CIN
Vladimir Guerrero * LAA
Raul Ibanez SEA
Jacque Jones DET
Mark Kotsay ATL
Rob Mackowiak WAS
Kevin Mench TOR
Jason Michaels * CLE
Craig Monroe MIN
Jay Payton BAL
Scott Podsednik COL
Manny Ramirez * BOS
Juan Rivera LAA
Rondell White MIN
*has 2009 option

Anyone in that group that you want more (and can afford) than Dunn?

Oxilon
07-23-2008, 10:25 PM
I've always thought Jay Payton was extremely underrated. Good speed, defense, can play CF, and his stick isn't that bad for what he'll get paid.

BLEEDS
07-24-2008, 10:09 AM
What the hell are you talking about? When and where have I diverged from that statement? WHERE????? I have said that an everyday left fielder should OPS .850. Where in any of my posts have I ever gone away from that????????

The one I just quoted, where you list guys with under .850 OPS.
I know, hard to follow.




Stop nitpicking and address my point. Would you want a left fielder on your team who OPS lower than .850?

No, which is why I think your analysis and suggestions are horrendous - especially the part about one of the 4/5 guys you mentioned being ready in "a year or two"


My strategy, if you read my first post, is to offer Dunn arbitration and have him accept.

Yeah, great logic, again. Free Agency or Arbitration, hmmm, I wonder?



The if he turns it down, there are some good one year stop gaps like Blake or Nomar or Giles, that can fill in for a year or two until the young guys are ready.

Pipe dreams if you think we'd waste the $$ - and they would accept - on any of those guys. Plus, they either don't play the position, may not be FA's, etc, etc... you're really grasping at straws.



I believe that by 2010 and 2011 one of the prospects I mentioned will be ready to be a solid everyday left fielder, one that can OPS 850+.

Yes, and that is the part of the argument I take umbrage with. You think they grow on trees - or suddenly jump from AA to the Majors in "a year or two". I say you are GROSSLY mistaken.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

RedLegsToday
07-24-2008, 11:10 AM
I've always thought Jay Payton was extremely underrated. Good speed, defense, can play CF, and his stick isn't that bad for what he'll get paid.


I honestly thought Jay Payton had been retired for a couple of years now.

I don't know what his salary is, but, I don't want the Reds to have anything to do with a soon-to-be 36 year old outfielder that is "hitting" .243/.281/.365 this year, after hitting a robust .256/.292/.376 last year. Maybe Jay should have retired a couple of years ago.

CWRed
07-24-2008, 01:47 PM
He's never going to learn to spread the ball around. He is what he is.

Now that doesn't mean you don't re-sign him. I wouldn't mind seeing him back simply because of his offensive production. That isn't going to be replaced. The question is with his and Griffey's salary freed up, can you get two guys who are better for your team? Because you aren't going to get Dunn-like production from any single player.

I guess the question is, can you better improve your team by having Adam Dunn back and having $15 million freed up with Griffey gone (more if Arroyo gets dealt) to spend in the FA market or if you don't have Dunn back and have in excess of $30 million? The FA market this year doesn't seem that great so re-signing Dunn might be the best option.


Every time someone says "it is what it is" or "he is what he is," Chuck Norris becomes less of a man. True story.

Ahhhorsepoo
07-24-2008, 02:14 PM
The Reds will keep Dunn. He sells tons of jerseys, hits tons of homers, and the Reds are a team that historically is loyal to its own guys. Also, here is the list of 2009 Free-Agent outfielders from Cot's contracts.

Outfielders
Bobby Abreu NYY
Moises Alou NYM
Garret Anderson * LAA
Rocco Baldelli TB
Willie Bloomquist SEA
Emil Brown OAK
Pat Burrell PHI
Endy Chavez NYM
Carl Crawford * TB
Adam Dunn CIN
Jim Edmonds CHC
Cliff Floyd TB
Brian Giles * SD
Ken Griffey Jr. * CIN
Vladimir Guerrero * LAA
Raul Ibanez SEA
Jacque Jones DET
Mark Kotsay ATL
Rob Mackowiak WAS
Kevin Mench TOR
Jason Michaels * CLE
Craig Monroe MIN
Jay Payton BAL
Scott Podsednik COL
Manny Ramirez * BOS
Juan Rivera LAA
Rondell White MIN
*has 2009 option

Anyone in that group that you want more (and can afford) than Dunn?

Baldelli
Crawford

Both would be immense upgrades.. and would be no more than adam dunn, if anything they would be cheaper..

Heck with the production of Jones going way down I would take a flier on him and sign him to a 1 year deal for 4 mil...

Ghosts of 1990
07-24-2008, 02:35 PM
I thought this thread was a petition. Wish there was a seperate discussion containing the debate.

freestyle55
07-24-2008, 03:41 PM
Baldelli
Crawford

Both would be immense upgrades.. and would be no more than adam dunn, if anything they would be cheaper..

Heck with the production of Jones going way down I would take a flier on him and sign him to a 1 year deal for 4 mil...

Baldelli may never play again and is injury prone
Go check out the ORG thread to see why Crawford is not an upgrade...Dunn is significantly better than Crawford offensively, and there is not enough defense in the world for Crawford to catch up...

And Jones is done. Wouldn't waste my time or money on him any longer...

levydl
07-24-2008, 04:02 PM
Baldelli may never play again and is injury prone
Go check out the ORG thread to see why Crawford is not an upgrade...Dunn is significantly better than Crawford offensively, and there is not enough defense in the world for Crawford to catch up...

And Jones is done. Wouldn't waste my time or money on him any longer...

Of course Baldelli's better. He's fast and he looks athletic. Dunn - neither.

So what if he won't have played in 160 games if you add up 2008, 2007, 2006. He's definitely better than Dunn, I can just tell by looking at him. Plus, he's a winner, which Dunn certainly isn't. Look how good Tampa is now, you think that's a coincidence? Oh, bad example.

Ahhhorsepoo
07-24-2008, 04:29 PM
Baldelli may never play again and is injury prone
Go check out the ORG thread to see why Crawford is not an upgrade...Dunn is significantly better than Crawford offensively, and there is not enough defense in the world for Crawford to catch up...

And Jones is done. Wouldn't waste my time or money on him any longer...

I am not going waste my time looking for an ORG thread telling me about a bunch of meaningless stats that tell me dunn does get on base more often.. and a few other stats are slightly better.. but dont tell me.. A Crawford is a threat on the base path.. B his defense is gold glove caliber.. and C what power he lacks he makes up for in speed and far better instincts.. when it comes to judging balls while in the field, and judging balls while on the base path..

freestyle55
07-24-2008, 04:44 PM
I am not going waste my time looking for an ORG thread telling me about a bunch of meaningless stats that tell me dunn does get on base more often.. and a few other stats are slightly better.. but dont tell me.. A Crawford is a threat on the base path.. B his defense is gold glove caliber.. and C what power he lacks he makes up for in speed and far better instincts.. when it comes to judging balls while in the field, and judging balls while on the base path..

A Dunn gets on base more often than Crawford, so he would be more of a threat on the bases...since he's on them more often. We'll skip the "meaningless stats" and go with times on base...This year, Crawford has been on base approximately (didn't look up errors, HBP, etc., based on H + BB) 130 times in 416 PA (again, AB + BB). Dunn has been on 150 times (H + BB) in 388 PA (AB + BB). So basically, in 30 less tries, Dunn has been on base 20 more times than Crawford...20 more times where Crawford's extra speed does him a fat lot of good sitting on the bench...and give Dunn those extra 30 tries, and based on OBP, he'd been on another 11 or 12 times

B How do you know if his defense is gold glove caliber just by watching? Do you watch every other play of every other outfielder to know that he's better than all but 2 of them? Or do you rely on what others tell you (probably based on statistics)?

C Speed is pretty useless when it's not on the bases or in the field, so when Dunn is on more often, that speed is useless all those extra times. As for in the field, I go back to the fact that his defense is not enough to make up for the difference in offense...Dunn creates runs almost every game (70 RC so far this year vs. 47 for Crawford), he doesn't give up runs every game and surely hasn't given up 23 runs with his defense.

Ghosts of 1990
07-24-2008, 05:16 PM
People here arguing Baldellli. LMAO.

The guy has a muscle disease and they cant figure out whats wrong with him.

levydl
07-24-2008, 05:19 PM
I am not going waste my time looking for an ORG thread telling me about a bunch of meaningless stats that tell me dunn does get on base more often.. and a few other stats are slightly better.. but dont tell me.. A Crawford is a threat on the base path.. B his defense is gold glove caliber.. and C what power he lacks he makes up for in speed and far better instincts.. when it comes to judging balls while in the field, and judging balls while on the base path..

What happened to Baldelli? I thought he'd be an "immense upgrade" as well? Or have you simply not watched anyone but the Reds in 4 years?

Everything is meaningless besides your opinion, huh?

Ahhhorsepoo
07-24-2008, 05:31 PM
A.. Just because you are on base does not make you ANY THREAT.. The fact that Crawford can steal is a threat.. infact.. explain how he is a "threat on the paths".. if he has only scored an extra 26 times when you take his homeruns out of the equation..

Crawford has scored 55 times without his homeruns..

Dunn hass been On Base 150 times.. minus his homers, puts him at 121 times.. and his runs, minus homers puts him at 26..

soo if he gets on base without hitting a homer he scores 26/121 times.. or approximately 21% of the time..

Crawford on the other hand has scored 55 runs on 122 times on base(not accounting for homers) at a clip of 45%..

While yes the player behind him do affect that..

Crawford bats 2nd in the rays lineup usually..
the 3,4,5 B.A.'s in that lineup are.. .263, .249, .262 with 47 homers..
Dunn..
the 6,7,8 B.A.'s are.. .273, .286, and .222 with 44 homers..

Sorry but it's not like the people behind him can't hit at all..
Dunn clogs bases alot more than alot of people think.. speed on the bases can help IMMENSELY..

B I watch ALOT of baseball, he is easily top 4 in the AL..

C You must not watch many games.. because more often than not, in a game he gives up AT LEAST 1 extra base because of balls he can't cutoff, or his arm..

Keep giving up on players like baldelli, like brian giles, like jaques jones.. and you wont get any josh hamiltons.. i know the former is more likely to fial than succeed, but give them a chance.. there is a chance they will be fine, and a diamond in the rough is always better than overpaying for a cubic zirconia..

freestyle55
07-24-2008, 05:57 PM
A.. Just because you are on base does not make you ANY THREAT.. The fact that Crawford can steal is a threat.. infact.. explain how he is a "threat on the paths".. if he has only scored an extra 26 times when you take his homeruns out of the equation..

Crawford has scored 55 times without his homeruns..

Dunn hass been On Base 150 times.. minus his homers, puts him at 121 times.. and his runs, minus homers puts him at 26..

soo if he gets on base without hitting a homer he scores 26/121 times.. or approximately 21% of the time..

Crawford on the other hand has scored 55 runs on 122 times on base(not accounting for homers) at a clip of 45%..

While yes the player behind him do affect that..

Crawford bats 2nd in the rays lineup usually..
the 3,4,5 B.A.'s in that lineup are.. .263, .249, .262 with 47 homers..
Dunn..
the 6,7,8 B.A.'s are.. .273, .286, and .222 with 44 homers..

Sorry but it's not like the people behind him can't hit at all..
Dunn clogs bases alot more than alot of people think.. speed on the bases can help IMMENSELY..

You're comparing B.J. Upton (OPS+ 113), Carlos Pena (missed about 20 games, OPS+ 106), and Evan Longoria (missed about 10 games, OPS+ 132) to Edwin Encarnacion (OPS+ 122), Joey Votto (OPS+ 104), and Paul Bako (OPS+ 66)? As much as I like EdE and Votto, they don't compare to Upton and Longoria, and Pena is a significant uprgrade from Bako.



B I watch ALOT of baseball, he is easily top 4 in the AL..


We can argue the whole "I see things" vs. "What statistical analysis tells everyone else" all day long, generally no one changes on that...



C You must not watch many games.. because more often than not, in a game he gives up AT LEAST 1 extra base because of balls he can't cutoff, or his arm..


I watch quite a few games, and I don't see it in that many games. While he is obviously not the top defender in all of baseball, he has significantly improved and as I pointed out earlier, which you conveniently ignored as "stats", defensive metrics show that he's not as bad as you think...




Keep giving up on players like baldelli, like brian giles, like jaques jones.. and you wont get any josh hamiltons.. i know the former is more likely to fial than succeed, but give them a chance.. there is a chance they will be fine, and a diamond in the rough is always better than overpaying for a cubic zirconia..

That's pretty much what the Reds have been doing for the past several years, bringing in scrap, hoping to salvage...where has it gotten us...

Ahhhorsepoo
07-24-2008, 06:09 PM
Just ignore the fact that his speed on the bases helps him score more then.. ok... offensively including the platoon at catcher of Bako, Ross and Valentin those three(Batting slots) are pretty similar..

You honestly don't see him cutting off balls at the wall instead of before they get by him, or his lack of an arm, where runners can score on him when he is in SHALLOW LEFT?! you can't tell me you are serious.. Defensive Metrics, sorry but he isn't that good.. he is MEDIOCRE, for the worst out fielding position IN THE GAME.. sorry but honestly you are selling him short if you don't look at adam and realize with WORK, and i dont mean a 2 week trainer workout.. he could be a GREAT player.. for what he gets paid he should be improving DRASTICALLY.. not to the point where some people can't see a change.. I gave up on that chance 4 years ago when he still hasn't improved on MANY MANY MANY fundamental parts of his game.. dont you think things like that fly ball in chicago a few weeks ago get under the skin of the pitcher and make the whole game worse because the pitcher knows he might have an Error on his hand even if he forces a popup? if you honestly think pitchers dont think that ever, you dont know the ego of any pitcher past t-ball..

Those "scrap" players would be great additions to a winning team.. unfortunately we try to build around those.. we need to have a good core as well..

OUReds
07-24-2008, 06:21 PM
C You must not watch many games.. because more often than not, in a game he gives up AT LEAST 1 extra base because of balls he can't cutoff, or his arm..

I'm not going to touch the rest of your post, but am I to understand you believe that Dunn gives up around 90 more extra-base hits then the average left fielder over the course of the year?

You don't honestly believe that right?

I mean, THAT'S what your eyes tell you?

CWRed
07-24-2008, 07:05 PM
[QUOTE=Ahhhorsepoo;1701787]Dunn clogs bases alot more than alot of people think.. speed on the bases can help IMMENSELY..

Um did you really just say that? Is this Dusty Baker? :D

Ahhhorsepoo
07-25-2008, 01:27 AM
I'm not going to touch the rest of your post, but am I to understand you believe that Dunn gives up around 90 more extra-base hits then the average left fielder over the course of the year?

You don't honestly believe that right?

I mean, THAT'S what your eyes tell you?

didnt say extra base hits.. but between those and allowing runners to score and advance.. yes 90 extra bases...

dunn isnt a base clogger?
when was the last time he went first to third on a single? b=phill has at least 10 to every one dunn has..

OUReds
07-25-2008, 03:06 AM
Ahhh I read extra bases as extra base hits.

90 additional bases is also completely ridiculous, but not out of touch with reality ridiculous.

Ahhhorsepoo
07-25-2008, 10:26 AM
I am telling you in at least 2 games that come to mind he gave up more than 2 extra bases.. and MANY MANY MANY times he has given up an extra base here, and extra base there.. infact that one in chicago a few weeks back should count as 5 or 6 extra bases(don't remember if there were 1 or 2 on), but i wasn't even thinking about that play..

BLEEDS
07-25-2008, 11:30 AM
You're comparing B.J. Upton (OPS+ 113), Carlos Pena (missed about 20 games, OPS+ 106), and Evan Longoria (missed about 10 games, OPS+ 132) to Edwin Encarnacion (OPS+ 122), Joey Votto (OPS+ 104), and Paul Bako (OPS+ 66)?

Yes, he's comparing an AL teams 3/4/5 to an NL teams 6/7/8.

This, all to prove that Crawford is a better 2 hole hitter than Dunn.
Crawford is a TOTALLY different style hitter than Dunn, so not much to argue there. the 20 or so "non-HR produced Runs" (which is ridiculous for Offensive Comparision sakes, but I'll play along) gets MORE than made up for by his RBI's

And to think that his biggest asset - his SPEED - would be less likely to decline with age than Dunn's biggest asset - his POWER - is remarkably short-sighted.
His OBP is already SAD and driven by his speed, once that declines, you're looking at COREY PATTERSON JUNIOR. Look at his BA this year, it's barely above Adam Dunn's for last year...

I'd rather have Crawford than BP, but not Dunn.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

Ahhhorsepoo
07-25-2008, 11:44 AM
rather have Carl Crawford than GG caliber Brandon Phillips, you must be joking.. I wasn't pointing out he was a better 2 hole hitter.. I was merely stating his base path presence is FAR FAR FAR FAR greater than Dunns..

BLEEDS
07-25-2008, 12:57 PM
rather have Carl Crawford than GG caliber Brandon Phillips, you must be joking.. I wasn't pointing out he was a better 2 hole hitter.. I was merely stating his base path presence is FAR FAR FAR FAR greater than Dunns..

Well your definition of "PRESENCE" is FAR FAR FAR FAR from reality.
If you mean "LESS" than you are correct. But don't let me and other posters "statistics" - like how many times someone gets on base, confuse and frighten you.

Crawford is a good defensive presence, but he can't hit for power anywhere close to Dunn, and he can't get ON base enough to be a "Presence".
A CAREER OBP in the .320's is not a "PRESENCE" it's more like a dropping by to visit every now and then.

The only thing you've got going for you is that Dusty Baker thinks the same way you do - put guys who can't get on base in the lineup EARLY AND OFTEN, and then wonder why your teams are struggling to score runs.

And yes, I'd surely take Crawford over BP. he can't replace Dunn, but he could BP.
If I'm going to have a guy OBP in the .320's, I'd hope he could steal 50 bases, not 20.
What exactly do you think BP has over Crawford on offense anyhow? Crawford has him in just about every category, including OPS - outside of his down year this year, but definitely for the career. He's also got two All Star appearances. He can also hit from both sides of the plate. The list goes on and on...

PEACE

-BLEEDS

Ahhhorsepoo
07-25-2008, 01:57 PM
Well your definition of "PRESENCE" is FAR FAR FAR FAR from reality.
If you mean "LESS" than you are correct. But don't let me and other posters "statistics" - like how many times someone gets on base, confuse and frighten you.

Crawford is a good defensive presence, but he can't hit for power anywhere close to Dunn, and he can't get ON base enough to be a "Presence".
A CAREER OBP in the .320's is not a "PRESENCE" it's more like a dropping by to visit every now and then.

The only thing you've got going for you is that Dusty Baker thinks the same way you do - put guys who can't get on base in the lineup EARLY AND OFTEN, and then wonder why your teams are struggling to score runs.

And yes, I'd surely take Crawford over BP. he can't replace Dunn, but he could BP.
If I'm going to have a guy OBP in the .320's, I'd hope he could steal 50 bases, not 20.
What exactly do you think BP has over Crawford on offense anyhow? Crawford has him in just about every category, including OPS - outside of his down year this year, but definitely for the career. He's also got two All Star appearances. He can also hit from both sides of the plate. The list goes on and on...

PEACE

-BLEEDS

BPhill and Carl Crawford play defense.. you never seem to take that into consideration..

also.. base running, while i would like to have crawford on base a little more often.. YOU ARE KIDDING YOURSELF if you think just because base clogging adam dunn gets on more, he is a bigger presence..
Presence doesn't just mean the act of being, as in adams case, but it also in the baserunning case, means making the pitcher hold him on.. advancing extra bases on otherwise small mistakes by fielders..

AS LONG AS ADAM DUNN IS ON THIS TEAM, and we have the mentality that homeruns win everything we will NEVER win it..

Dunn can have a place on a championship team, but not as the centerpiece..

CWRed
07-25-2008, 02:48 PM
BPhill and Carl Crawford play defense.. you never seem to take that into consideration..

also.. base running, while i would like to have crawford on base a little more often.. YOU ARE KIDDING YOURSELF if you think just because base clogging adam dunn gets on more, he is a bigger presence..
Presence doesn't just mean the act of being, as in adams case, but it also in the baserunning case, means making the pitcher hold him on.. advancing extra bases on otherwise small mistakes by fielders..

AS LONG AS ADAM DUNN IS ON THIS TEAM, and we have the mentality that homeruns win everything we will NEVER win it..

Dunn can have a place on a championship team, but not as the centerpiece..

Mr. Baker,

If I were you I would officially retire the phrase "clogging the bases." Getting on base. Good. Not getting on base. Bad.

BLEEDS
07-25-2008, 04:28 PM
BPhill and Carl Crawford play defense.. you never seem to take that into consideration..

also.. base running, while i would like to have crawford on base a little more often.. YOU ARE KIDDING YOURSELF if you think just because base clogging adam dunn gets on more, he is a bigger presence..
Presence doesn't just mean the act of being, as in adams case, but it also in the baserunning case, means making the pitcher hold him on.. advancing extra bases on otherwise small mistakes by fielders..

AS LONG AS ADAM DUNN IS ON THIS TEAM, and we have the mentality that homeruns win everything we will NEVER win it..

Dunn can have a place on a championship team, but not as the centerpiece..

And while we have the mentality that fast guys with OBP's in the .320's have more of an affect on winning games... we'll lose by even more.
Home runs aren't everything - they're even nicer when the GUYS IN FRONT OF THEM GET ON BASE!!!! nobody cares if they stole second when the ball flies over the fence, just as long as they are ON THE BASE PATHS more!!

Defense - especially in left field - and baserunning, are decades old methods of winning games in the "small ball" era. Name me the last team to win without having multiple BIG POWER guys - Home Run/RBI leaders - in their lineup.

They are so overrated - outside of Fantasy Baseball nobody even cares about stolen bases anymore - it's not even funny.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

Ahhhorsepoo
07-25-2008, 04:46 PM
2007 red sox.. had 3 guys who hit 20 or more homers.. 3
2006 cardinals.. had 3 guys with 20 or more homers... 3
2005 white sox... had 4 guys with 20 or more homers.. 4
2004 red sox... had 3 guys with 20 or more homers.. 3
2003 marlins.. had 2 guys with 20 or more homer power.. 2

yet we need 5 or 6.. YEAH the collective argument that we need all of them.. STUPID!!!!
Those who can, and are on pace for this year...
Dunn
Phillips
EE
Votto
Griffey
(Bruce has the power to)

BLEEDS
07-25-2008, 05:32 PM
2007 red sox.. had 3 guys who hit 20 or more homers.. 3
2006 cardinals.. had 3 guys with 20 or more homers... 3
2005 white sox... had 4 guys with 20 or more homers.. 4
2004 red sox... had 3 guys with 20 or more homers.. 3
2003 marlins.. had 2 guys with 20 or more homer power.. 2


20 is not the number. Check again.
We're talking HR/RBI leaders - guys with 30/40+ HR power, you know like Pujols, Manny Ramirez/Big Pappi, Paul Konerko/Jermain Dye, Lowell/Lee/Cabrera on the 2003 Marlins.
These teams were SLUGGING THEM OUT, not trying to move the runner over.

You just proved my point. THANKS!!
The WSox, even though they touted speed and defense, they still had 200+ home runs on their TEAM.

Aside from Dunn, we have NOBODY with anything remotely resembling 30+ HR power.

What we'll be left with is a bunch of complementary players, most with little to no OBP average - but they will be REALLY FAST running from First Base to the dugout after getting thrown out, or from Home after another 0-fer against RHP-ing...

PEACE

-BLEEDS

Ahhhorsepoo
07-25-2008, 10:15 PM
20 is not the number. Check again.
We're talking HR/RBI leaders - guys with 30/40+ HR power, you know like Pujols, Manny Ramirez/Big Pappi, Paul Konerko/Jermain Dye, Lowell/Lee/Cabrera on the 2003 Marlins.
These teams were SLUGGING THEM OUT, not trying to move the runner over.

You just proved my point. THANKS!!
The WSox, even though they touted speed and defense, they still had 200+ home runs on their TEAM.

Aside from Dunn, we have NOBODY with anything remotely resembling 30+ HR power.

What we'll be left with is a bunch of complementary players, most with little to no OBP average - but they will be REALLY FAST running from First Base to the dugout after getting thrown out, or from Home after another 0-fer against RHP-ing...


PEACE

-BLEEDS


wwhat point was proven? we have tried to outslug everyone in the last 10 years and havent won a darn thing..

Reds Homers..
2007 - 204
2006 - 217
2005 - 222
2004 - 194
2003 - 182
2002 - 169

World Series Winners...
2007 - Red Sox 166
2006 - Cards 184
2005 - White Sox 200
2004 - Red Sox 222
2003 - Marlins 157
2002 - Angels 152

soo its pretty clear we can outslug teams.. with HOMERS as thats all you want.. we have had more than the W.S. champs in 5 of the last 6 years..

OUReds
07-25-2008, 11:14 PM
wwhat point was proven? we have tried to outslug everyone in the last 10 years and havent won a darn thing..

Reds Homers..
2007 - 204
2006 - 217
2005 - 222
2004 - 194
2003 - 182
2002 - 169

World Series Winners...
2007 - Red Sox 166
2006 - Cards 184
2005 - White Sox 200
2004 - Red Sox 222
2003 - Marlins 157
2002 - Angels 152

soo its pretty clear we can outslug teams.. with HOMERS as thats all you want.. we have had more than the W.S. champs in 5 of the last 6 years..

So you think the offense has been the primary problem with the Reds these last 6 years? Too much slugging and not enough...scrappiness? No problem with the pitching at all eh?

Ahhhorsepoo
07-26-2008, 11:09 AM
So you think the offense has been the primary problem with the Reds these last 6 years? Too much slugging and not enough...scrappiness? No problem with the pitching at all eh?

No.. my point is.. we have focused our offense on the wrong parts of the game.. and are just paying alot of money for homerun sluggers, that we obviously have plenty of.. we need to focus, and respend that money on quality small ball, above average defensive players, and more pitching..

everyone seems to misplace my hatred for dunn, it's not on him.. it's how much we pay him compared to the actual return we get from him when both offense and defense are accounted for..

his money would be much better spent on a quality outfielder.. 7-10 mil, and the rest put toward another quality pitcher..

unfortunately his trade market is next to nothing, or at least has been for 4 years, so we can;t get anyone else to believe what the reds fans think is his value..

OUReds
07-26-2008, 11:53 AM
No.. my point is.. we have focused our offense on the wrong parts of the game.. and are just paying alot of money for homerun sluggers, that we obviously have plenty of.. we need to focus, and respend that money on quality small ball, above average defensive players, and more pitching..

everyone seems to misplace my hatred for dunn, it's not on him.. it's how much we pay him compared to the actual return we get from him when both offense and defense are accounted for..

his money would be much better spent on a quality outfielder.. 7-10 mil, and the rest put toward another quality pitcher..

unfortunately his trade market is next to nothing, or at least has been for 4 years, so we can;t get anyone else to believe what the reds fans think is his value..

Minus the random unnecessary dig at the end, this is a fairly reasonable position.

But this is hardly the way you usually frame your argument now is it?

"I could only hope that is the case, because then i would know i did my part in getting rid of the garbage"

"While Dunn is a bad influence on young guys"

"I am telling you the approach by dunn in particular has slowed the progress of the young guys, and made griffey even lazier than he was"

"Dunn is garbage.. his 40/100/100 are replaceable especially is votto, phillips, edwin, bruce, each can hit 25 to 30 homers.."

"he's terrible because he simply cant do almost any fundamental to the point where he should be at for his salary.. if he was making 5 mil a year I would love his contribution "

"It also might be lack of skill for pitcher that still havent realized Dunn cant hit a real fastball(95 mph or higher) to save his life.. he lives on hanging breaking balls and that is it.."

"Nasty boy you must be new.. I have been fed up with dunn since day 1 when i noticed he has no idea that things such as improvement and practice help him out.. "

So can we drop this charade of "I just think Dunn's salary is better spent on pitching"?

kpresidente
07-26-2008, 01:51 PM
My only problem with a long-term deal for Dunn is that he bats left-handed, and we're already looking at Bruce, Votto, and probably Alanso as lefties in the middle of the order.

If I'm spending $15-20 million on a big bat, ideally it should be a right-handed bat or a switch hitter.

Then again, that's not reason enough to go without Dunn's production. If we let him go, he has to be replaced and I'm not sure that's possible this offseason. Of all the big FA bats that might be available, Dunn is the only one who I think would be inclined to come here.

So what I do is offer him some crazy arbitration figure, like $20 million. He might take that over a LTD from another team at $15M/year. That way you get your production for 2009 without being on the hook for years afterwards.

improbus
07-26-2008, 02:14 PM
You have to think that Bruce and Votto will be better next year. EE's power numbers are growing, and Phillips is still productive and we won't have Junior hitting in the 3 hole next year. So, if they can get someone who replaces 60% of Dunn's production (a Jorge Cantu type), and can sign another starter at $10 million, I would be fine with that.

757690
07-26-2008, 03:02 PM
You have to think that Bruce and Votto will be better next year. EE's power numbers are growing, and Phillips is still productive and we won't have Junior hitting in the 3 hole next year. So, if they can get someone who replaces 60% of Dunn's production (a Jorge Cantu type), and can sign another starter at $10 million, I would be fine with that.

Something that everyone else seems to be missing. I love Jr. but replacing him with Bruce for a whole season next year does wonders for the Reds offense.

I think Jocketty is thinking the same thing. He is not worried about having one guy replace Dunn's production, but using that $15-20M saved to improve other areas, that as a whole will make up for it.

Ahhhorsepoo
07-26-2008, 06:14 PM
Minus the random unnecessary dig at the end, this is a fairly reasonable position.

But this is hardly the way you usually frame your argument now is it?

"I could only hope that is the case, because then i would know i did my part in getting rid of the garbage"

"While Dunn is a bad influence on young guys"

"I am telling you the approach by dunn in particular has slowed the progress of the young guys, and made griffey even lazier than he was"

"Dunn is garbage.. his 40/100/100 are replaceable especially is votto, phillips, edwin, bruce, each can hit 25 to 30 homers.."

"he's terrible because he simply cant do almost any fundamental to the point where he should be at for his salary.. if he was making 5 mil a year I would love his contribution "

"It also might be lack of skill for pitcher that still havent realized Dunn cant hit a real fastball(95 mph or higher) to save his life.. he lives on hanging breaking balls and that is it.."

"Nasty boy you must be new.. I have been fed up with dunn since day 1 when i noticed he has no idea that things such as improvement and practice help him out.. "

So can we drop this charade of "I just think Dunn's salary is better spent on pitching"?


No.. the reason I am upset with EVERY part of his game, is they collectively shouldnt happen for a guy who gets his salary.. it's pretty much common sense that older guys who make more money are the natural leaders on a team, if he ISNT the centerpiece, his approach might not be one that shows through others..

I am a very sarcastic guy, and sometimes my frustration comes across sarcastic, but some might not read it that way.. but seriously for less money, and not as a centerpiece, he is a welcome addition on most teams..

For his salary I would rather get a coco crisp/juan pierre type, and a great bullpen guy..

BLEEDS
07-26-2008, 06:22 PM
This park IS NOT built for "Small Ball". If WE play small ball, we are going to lose 8-3 instead of 8-7.

We need MORE pitching - AND more hitting - not MORE pitching and replace OPS with Small Ball.

It's completely nonsensensical to say we should build this team around defense and speed, when we play in this BallPark.

Yes, we NEED Defense - up the middle of the field primarily - CF, SS, 2B; and to a lesser extent 3B. We've addressed that by signing a career .700-ish OPS against RHP to give us "just about" Gold Glove Caliber D at 2b. CF and SS continue to be our hamstring. We continue to put guys out there who can hit DECENT but can't play D. The idea is to get THOSE positions manned by "Glove over Bat" guys who can help you live with less than stellar D at LF, RF, 1B, C, etc... as long as they can rake.

Again, for the 1,000,000th time, Left Field is for High OPS guys, not Gold Glovers. You want to give up 100+ points of OPS for a smidge of better D in LF/RF, go for it, but don't be mad when we SUCK EVEN WORSE because those ARE NOT premium Defensive Positions.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

OUReds
07-26-2008, 07:12 PM
No.. the reason I am upset with EVERY part of his game, is they collectively shouldnt happen for a guy who gets his salary.. it's pretty much common sense that older guys who make more money are the natural leaders on a team, if he ISNT the centerpiece, his approach might not be one that shows through others..

I am a very sarcastic guy, and sometimes my frustration comes across sarcastic, but some might not read it that way.. but seriously for less money, and not as a centerpiece, he is a welcome addition on most teams..

For his salary I would rather get a coco crisp/juan pierre type, and a great bullpen guy..


You are upset with his offense because you are stuck with a 1970's perception of offensive baseball, you just don't understand how teams actually score runs.

You are upset with his defense because you have unreasonable expectations for a left fielder.

You are upset with his salary bacause you cannot appreciate his contributions to the team. The average yearly worth of his last contract was 10 million dollars, exactly what you say we should be paying a left fielder, but apparently he is still garbage. Not too long ago you pegged Dunn's true value at 5 million dollars a year. 5 MILLION DOLLARS.

You think he is corrupting the youth of the team (like Socrates?).

You latch on to Dunn-hating justifications like a fat kid on a snickers bar. (remember the week or so of "Dunn can't hit a fastball"?)

When confronted with actual objective evidence that you are wrong, what do we hear? "Stats don't matter? Do you actually WATCH him?!"

Since Adam Dunn has come up, he has been the Red's best offensive player. He has been one of the few bright spots on a team that, with the pitching they had, might otherwise have been historicaly bad.

What's even more fun is that the last two years he has improved every deficiency in his game. He has reduced his strikeouts (relatively so of course). He has more sac flies and is playing better small ball. By every fielding metric available he has been an average fielder this year.

None of this matters to you of course. He still gets called garbage, a bad influence, lazy, and generally insulted and blamed at every opportunity.

It gets very tiresome. You're just being sarcastic? Please.

Ahhhorsepoo
07-27-2008, 11:21 PM
You are upset with his offense because you are stuck with a 1970's perception of offensive baseball, you just don't understand how teams actually score runs.

You are upset with his defense because you have unreasonable expectations for a left fielder.

You are upset with his salary bacause you cannot appreciate his contributions to the team. The average yearly worth of his last contract was 10 million dollars, exactly what you say we should be paying a left fielder, but apparently he is still garbage. Not too long ago you pegged Dunn's true value at 5 million dollars a year. 5 MILLION DOLLARS.

You think he is corrupting the youth of the team (like Socrates?).

You latch on to Dunn-hating justifications like a fat kid on a snickers bar. (remember the week or so of "Dunn can't hit a fastball"?)

When confronted with actual objective evidence that you are wrong, what do we hear? "Stats don't matter? Do you actually WATCH him?!"

Since Adam Dunn has come up, he has been the Red's best offensive player. He has been one of the few bright spots on a team that, with the pitching they had, might otherwise have been historicaly bad.

What's even more fun is that the last two years he has improved every deficiency in his game. He has reduced his strikeouts (relatively so of course). He has more sac flies and is playing better small ball. By every fielding metric available he has been an average fielder this year.

None of this matters to you of course. He still gets called garbage, a bad influence, lazy, and generally insulted and blamed at every opportunity.

It gets very tiresome. You're just being sarcastic? Please.

Again keep pointing out we dont need defense and I will keep pointing to a good friend of mines old team(Jim Eisenreich, you may have heard of him), the marlins who dont EVER win with homeruns, they play small ball and defense..

sorry but this team, no longer is fun to watch.. the defense is terrible at best(led by terrible Dunn, a declining Griffey, and EE who can feild better than most 3b, but his arm.. leaves alot to be desired...) the pitching is much improved, but it doesnt help when we cant stop a fly ball, or a shot up the middle, that normally would induce at least 1 out or a double play, instead it goes as a hit, or error..

TC81190
07-27-2008, 11:37 PM
Again keep pointing out we dont need defense and I will keep pointing to a good friend of mines old team(Jim Eisenreich, you may have heard of him), the marlins who dont EVER win with homeruns, they play small ball and defense..

sorry but this team, no longer is fun to watch.. the defense is terrible at best(led by terrible Dunn, a declining Griffey, and EE who can feild better than most 3b, but his arm.. leaves alot to be desired...) the pitching is much improved, but it doesnt help when we cant stop a fly ball, or a shot up the middle, that normally would induce at least 1 out or a double play, instead it goes as a hit, or error..
Yeah, those Marlins, they don't win with power. Their SS, 2B, and CF just happen to all be SLG-ing well above average for each of their positions, with their corner infielders also providing upwards of 20 HRs themselves.

BTW, for reference, the Marlins also have more players in the league leaders in HRs than the Reds, and as a team, have 26 more HR altogether.

Ahhhorsepoo
07-28-2008, 10:45 AM
Yeah, those Marlins, they don't win with power. Their SS, 2B, and CF just happen to all be SLG-ing well above average for each of their positions, with their corner infielders also providing upwards of 20 HRs themselves.

BTW, for reference, the Marlins also have more players in the league leaders in HRs than the Reds, and as a team, have 26 more HR altogether.

I am not talking about this year.. I am talking about years they win it all.. BTW they are almost all having CAREER years.. and Jorge cantu.. I remember people here talking about how he had no power, we don't need him, and I distinctly remember telling people he would have a few more good years left.. telling me having him instead of jolbert cabrera on this team wouldn't be an upgrade.... ok...

BLEEDS
07-28-2008, 10:45 AM
Yeah, those Marlins, they don't win with power. Their SS, 2B, and CF just happen to all be SLG-ing well above average for each of their positions, with their corner infielders also providing upwards of 20 HRs themselves.

BTW, for reference, the Marlins also have more players in the league leaders in HRs than the Reds, and as a team, have 26 more HR altogether.

Your stats and reality have no place in an argument against HorsePooh.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

OUReds
07-28-2008, 11:03 AM
I am not talking about this year.. I am talking about years they win it all.. BTW they are almost all having CAREER years.. and Jorge cantu.. I remember people here talking about how he had no power, we don't need him, and I distinctly remember telling people he would have a few more good years left.. telling me having him instead of jolbert cabrera on this team wouldn't be an upgrade.... ok...

You mean like the last time they won the WS in 2003? When they had a team .SLG of .421 and were well above league average?

2008 Cin. .SLG% is .405

It's almost like the World Series Champion Marlins hit for more power then the Reds do currently and were more successful. Amazing.

Also for the record I have at no time "pointed out why we don't need defense"

Ahhhorsepoo
07-28-2008, 11:16 AM
I was referring to when they win..

Bleeds your constant completely ignoring facts often have no place in an argument, but you do it anyways.. when i present things that say we dont need dunn, you point out his OPS.. when i say his defense is bad, you say, "at least it's better than half the LF'ers in the NL, the position where the WORST outfielders on a team go to play.. sorry but mediocrity is not what i want.. EVER.. and that kind of mentality is the reason the reds are about terrible..

Ahhhorsepoo
07-28-2008, 11:21 AM
You mean like the last time they won the WS in 2003? When they had a team .SLG of .421 and were well above league average?

2008 Cin. .SLG% is .405

It's almost like the World Series Champion Marlins hit for more power then the Reds do currently and were more successful. Amazing.

Also for the record I have at no time "pointed out why we don't need defense"

their slugging percentage was high, but notice the homers weren't..

they hit 53 more doubles.. and more than doubled our triples..
and had 150 more stolen bases..

the slugging percentage is ave number of bases multiplied by the team average.. it also helps that their team average was more than 20 points higher than the reds..

slugging does no just equal power, it also means gap shots and down the line shots.. something quicker teams can capitalize more on..

OUReds
07-28-2008, 11:36 AM
So your contention is that power in the form of double and triples is more desireable then in the form of home runs, and that none-home run slugging is really an indirect measure of team speed?

kpresidente
07-28-2008, 11:57 AM
nm

BLEEDS
07-28-2008, 12:08 PM
Bleeds your constant completely ignoring facts

Oh, like when you tried to tell me the Red Sox, Cardinals, WhiteSox and Marlins won their world series without Power - because you picked some stat out of your butt like total number of 20 HR guys on the team - completely ignoring the fact that they had 30/40+ HR guys on their teams like I contended?!?!?

You don't have any facts, other than the ones you make up to try to discredit the best player on the team.

People show you stats about Defense to show Dunn's Defense isn't nearly as bad as you say it is, and you ignore it for what "your eyes" tell you.

You want to get a Defensive Upgrade, in a NON-Prime Defensive position, at the cost of 20+ HRs, 40+ RBI's and 100-200+ OPS.
NOT a good trade. But, keep trying to tell yourself that.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

Ahhhorsepoo
07-28-2008, 01:29 PM
a guy that plays a good left field.. hits 25 homers.. 80 rbis.. will cost less than 8 mil... which is less than half of what dunn will command.. as i pointed out.. a good outfield would have saved us more than a few runs this week.. and the left fielder is part of the outfield..

keep thinking we are the yankees and have $$$$ to blow..

BLEEDS
07-28-2008, 01:53 PM
a guy that plays a good left field.. hits 25 homers.. 80 rbis.. will cost less than 8 mil... which is less than half of what dunn will command.. as i pointed out.. a good outfield would have saved us more than a few runs this week.. and the left fielder is part of the outfield..

keep thinking we are the yankees and have $$$$ to blow..

Please list your candidates for 2009 FA LF-ers who will hit 25 HR's and cost $8M.

I'll be waiting.

A. LONG. TIME.

Keep thinking this is 1992 and that the Reds ownership/team is incapable of supporting an $85M-100M payroll.

Do you know how much profit the Reds made last year?
IFF they spend 1/2 of it on payroll, they'd be able to sign Dunn AND a CC Sabathia.

Defense - check!
Salary - check!
Pick something else - since all of your arguments have been refuted, numerous times.

Going to have to reach for the bottom of the barrel again - clubhouse/young players attitude negative influence; doesn't like baseball; hits kittens over the heads with bats in the off-season;...

PEACE

-BLEEDS

Fil3232
07-28-2008, 02:02 PM
a guy that plays a good left field.. hits 25 homers.. 80 rbis.. will cost less than 8 mil... which is less than half of what dunn will command.. as i pointed out.. a good outfield would have saved us more than a few runs this week.. and the left fielder is part of the outfield..

keep thinking we are the yankees and have $$$$ to blow..

Please populate that list of LF's with your criteria. Make sure to exclude players who won't be available to the Reds (non FA's, etc.). I bet you'll be surprised by how short your list is.

BLEEDS
07-28-2008, 02:05 PM
how about something from the ORG thread - entitled Adam Dunn is not having even a mediocre year (yes, it's still going on from that Fay Article):
originally posted by Atomic Dumpling:
""
Busted, disproven fairy tales of the Dunn-haters:
1. Dunn's batting average sucks so therefore he sucks.
2. Dunn sucks because he strikes out too much.
3. The Reds can't afford to pay Dunn.
4. Dunn's money would be better spent elsewhere.
5. Dunn is so bad on defense that he gives back most of the runs he produces on offense.

This thread and many others have proven each and every one of those myths to be false.

Truths:
1. The meaningful statistics show that Dunn is one of the best 15 hitters in baseball.
2. How many outs you make matters, how you make them does not matter.
3. The Reds have plenty of money to spend this winter and they are not a small-market team.
4. The free agent market this winter is poor and Dunn is one of the 3 best players on the market.
5. Dunn is an average fielder despite his size and left fielders don't have much impact defensively anyway.
6. Shedding salaries of productive players is dumb, shedding salaries of non-productive players is smart.
7. Dunn's run production is worth at least $15 million/year. (Career OPS+ of 131 and still only 28 years old.)
""

As this has been discussed ad nauseum, by many many people, many many times. I think this provides a fairly good summary of every single argument that has, or can, be made for/against Dunn.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

Ahhhorsepoo
07-28-2008, 02:13 PM
I never said FA.. but by letting dunn go, or trading for him the last 5 years like i have wanted.. a player like that would be that cheaper..

The one guy i think that would have us where the cubs are this year.. Alfonso Soriano.. a good or better outfielder.. a great leadoff guy, and has power..

I was pushing for us hard to sign him back then.. when we should have literally given adam dunn up for nothing, and used his salary to pay soriano..

I have been saying this for 4 years.. and had we moved him for a used bag of water filters and signed a guy like sori.. we would be far better off.. notice a guy like soriano(better than dunn), isnt the main centerpiece in chicago.. hence they win.. they have homerun power, but they also play small ball and defense..

Ahhhorsepoo
07-28-2008, 02:23 PM
"Truths":
1. The meaningful statistics show that Dunn is one of the best 15 hitters in baseball. (Just because he is ok in some stats doesnt make up for his lack of others)
2. How many outs you make matters, how you make them does not matter. (that is the stupidest thing i have EVER heard.. if you strikeout 200 times, compared to fly out to the outfield 200 times, chances are you will have at least 10 sac flies there, thats runs.. might be an error or 2, or if dunn is in LF there will be many hits that fall that most outfielders dont get to.. thats a few extra bases..)
3. The Reds have plenty of money to spend this winter and they are not a small-market team.(the reds haven't been in the top half for total salary in the last 7 to 10 years, so obviously there is some cap on what they are willing to spend)
4. The free agent market this winter is poor and Dunn is one of the 3 best players on the market.(that should tell you how poor it is.. had you dumped him before you could have signed many a better FA's..)
5. Dunn is an average fielder despite his size and left fielders don't have much impact defensively anyway.(take away even 4 hits a week with a better outfielder and that is a significant amount over the year..)
6. Shedding salaries of productive players is dumb, shedding salaries of non-productive players is smart.(production is your total positive(homers, runs, OBP)- total negatives(lousy read on balls in of, can't get a runner over like most legit hitters can, has an arm that doesnt even rival a high school jv outfielder..), so i am not sure he is the most productive player on this team, that would go to B-Phill
7. Dunn's run production is worth at least $15 million/year. (Career OPS+ of 131 and still only 28 years old.) 13 mil maybe.. but on this team that needs defense and pitching tying up more than 15 percent of our salary into one player(that is not A-Rod of Jr of the 90's)= STUPID..

Fil3232
07-28-2008, 02:24 PM
I never said FA.. but by letting dunn go, or trading for him the last 5 years like i have wanted.. a player like that would be that cheaper..

The one guy i think that would have us where the cubs are this year.. Alfonso Soriano.. a good or better outfielder.. a great leadoff guy, and has power..

I was pushing for us hard to sign him back then.. when we should have literally given adam dunn up for nothing, and used his salary to pay soriano..

I have been saying this for 4 years.. and had we moved him for a used bag of water filters and signed a guy like sori.. we would be far better off.. notice a guy like soriano(better than dunn), isnt the main centerpiece in chicago.. hence they win.. they have homerun power, but they also play small ball and defense..

Soriano can't touch Dunn's production, costs more, is injury prone, is older and plays terrible defense. But besides that, you may be on to something...

BLEEDS
07-28-2008, 02:29 PM
It's hilarious that you use other points, already refuted and on the same list, in order to attempt to disprove the other points.

If X + Y = 3, and X is 2 and Y is 1. Your argument would go like this:

X is 1 because Y is 2.

Y is 2 because X is 1.


PEACE

-BLEEDS

Ahhhorsepoo
07-28-2008, 02:33 PM
injury prone? up until last year he had play over 145 games every year for 6 years..

you don't think the absolutely TERRIBLE outfield at wrigley last year had something to do with injuries?! and now he has just tried to hurry back twice from an injury too fast.. next year he will be back to 150 games, 35 homers form..

his defense has NEVER been worse than Dunn, even in his first game in LF..

what production is that? he's had 90 runs and rbis in 5 of the last 6 seasons..
he's a 40/40 guy..

he's only 3 years older..

he costs marginally more..

last 2 years of dunn
13 mil
10.5 mil

last 2 years of sori
14 mil
10 mil..

Ahhhorsepoo
07-28-2008, 02:34 PM
It's hilarious that you use other points, already refuted and on the same list, in order to attempt to disprove the other points.

If X + Y = 3, and X is 2 and Y is 1. Your argument would go like this:

X is 1 because Y is 2.

Y is 2 because X is 1.


PEACE

-BLEEDS

no it goes..

Your "truths" = lies..

OUReds
07-28-2008, 07:25 PM
injury prone? up until last year he had play over 145 games every year for 6 years..

you don't think the absolutely TERRIBLE outfield at wrigley last year had something to do with injuries?! and now he has just tried to hurry back twice from an injury too fast.. next year he will be back to 150 games, 35 homers form..

his defense has NEVER been worse than Dunn, even in his first game in LF..

what production is that? he's had 90 runs and rbis in 5 of the last 6 seasons..
he's a 40/40 guy..

he's only 3 years older..

he costs marginally more..

last 2 years of dunn
13 mil
10.5 mil

last 2 years of sori
14 mil
10 mil..

So you would take the older, more expensive, less productive hitter (.845 lifetime ops vs .902) over Dunn. 5 years ago no less. BRILLIANT!

RedLegsToday
07-28-2008, 10:02 PM
Dunn - 30 hr and 72 rbi now. Grand slam off of noted Reds Killer, Roy Oswalt.