Baseball Prospectus: Insiders believe Reds could be dark-horse candidate for Sabathia

[OnBaseMachine]

Reds owner Bob Castellini likes to make a splash, as evidenced by his hiring of Dusty Baker as manager and Walt Jocketty as GM, and some insiders believe Cincinnati will be a dark-horse bidder for Sabathia when he becomes a free agent in November

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=7794

[Screwball]

If the Reds add Sabathia this offseason, I think we'll have the best rotation in baseball.

Of course, to be able to afford him we'd almost certainly have to let Dunn walk. How we'd then be able to score is anybody's guess.

[Strikes Out Looking]

If the Reds add Sabathia this offseason, I think we'll have the best rotation in baseball.

Of course, to be able to afford him we'd almost certainly have to let Dunn walk. How we'd then be able to score is anybody's guess.

CC could play LF and bat fourth when he's not pitching!

[OnBaseMachine]

I would love to have Sabathia, even at the expense of Dunn. With Dunn and Griffey's contracts coming off the books, and possibly Arroyo too if traded, the Reds could have the money available to sign him, and Castellini has shown he willing to spend money.

It's wishful thinking at this point but Sabathia in the Reds rotation would be incredible.

CC Sabathia
Edinson Volquez
Aaron Harang
Johnny Cueto
Homer Bailey/Daryl Thompson

[Joseph]

If you could sign him, there could be some young arms movable for a bat.

Makes a lot of sense all around.

[Tom Servo]

Do it.

[Spitball]

If it takes a deal of six or seven years at $20-plus million a year, I think I'd rather see the Reds pass.

[WVRedsFan]

It would be nice to have CC, but I imagine we'll be outbid. And Dunn would be allowed to walk. Griffey wouldn't be picked up. Sabathia would have to throw a shutout every game in order for us to win.

[OnBaseMachine]

FWIW I think there is about a 5% chance of this happening but it's nice to dream. :)

[WVRedsFan]

FWIW I think there is about a 5% chance of this happening but it's nice to dream. :)

LOL, yes. I agree.

[flyer85]

shelling out 100M+ on a pitcher is beyond high risk for a small market club. Look at where the Twins are after Santana

[Spitball]

I believe Santana's contract is $150 million over seven years. I doubt Sabathia settles for any less.

[_Sir_Charles_]

shelling out 100M+ on a pitcher is beyond high risk for a small market club. Look at where the Twins are after Santana

Yep. Especially on a pitcher whose numbers are declining. Don't get me wrong, he's still a stud. But I do think his best years are behind him. The Reds have enough solid starters to be able to succeed with less than another #1 brought in. Especially if it costs what most of us thinks it WILL cost. Pass.

[Spitball]

I believe Santana's contract is $150 million over seven years. I doubt Sabathia settles for any less.

Make that six years at $138 million.

[HokieRed]

Seems impossible unless we can unload Arroyo's ridiculous contract so we should look for that as a first move.

[KronoRed]

The Reds can afford him and Dunn, but he's going to want 5+ years and that's just way too much risk for one arm.

[Unassisted]

Just imagine how steamed the Brewers FO and fans will be if the Reds pluck a FA pitcher from their staff two years in a row. :)

[reds44]

With Dunn and Griffey gone we certainly have plenty of money.

[fearofpopvol1]

I thought CC wanted to go to the west coast anyhow. I guess money can change that, but still. I wouldn't go any more than 5 years. Didn't he turn down $76 million and 4 years with the Indians? It just seems unlikely the Reds can make the right offer.

[GAC]

If it takes a deal of six or seven years at $20-plus million a year, I think I'd rather see the Reds pass.

Me too.

We're going to tie up on heck of a chunk of change from a mid-tier payroll on one player. What does that leave us to retain some of the players we have while also making additions to fill other pressing needs?

It would be a bad move IMO.

But I don't see it happening. He'll never sign with Cincy. The guy wants to return to his home area on the west coast.

[red-in-la]

If the Reds play for nothing else this last half, it is for legitimacy......for the capital to be able to sign FA this off season.

I have no clue where Sabathia might end up, and here in LA, we have watched the Dodgers pour millions down the drain in bad pitcher contracts.....

But CC sure showed in the 9th inning today what it means to be an ACE.......if you were to consider sinking huge bucks into any LTC, it would be for an ACE in my hummble opinion.

I have for years now thought that Sabathia's arm would crack off from his crummy mechanics......but it hasn't. Another pitcher who the Reds fans wanted who was a huge injury risk, Brad Penny, has actually done very well in LA. So I am not sure how you measure the RISK.

But the Reds need to get to the next level somehow.

[buckeyenut]

You know what ? I agree with the logic people are throwing out, BUT, this ownership group has been making noise about winning NOW for several years. If you let Dunn (arb) and Jr (no arb) walk and bring in CC, it really shows you are trying to reconstruct the team in a different form. Deal arroyo for a bat, see if you can bring in some offense elsewhere, and you might be OK.

[RedsManRick]

I'd be shocked if the Yankees offered CC anything less than 6/150.

[Patrick Bateman]

This really doesn't seem like a Jocketty type of move. The Cards have bypassed a many pitchers because of his refusal to go more than 4 years with any pitcher.

For that reason, and a number of others, I have great trouble seeing this happening.

[CrackerJack]

If the Reds add Sabathia this offseason, I think we'll have the best rotation in baseball.

Of course, to be able to afford him we'd almost certainly have to let Dunn walk. How we'd then be able to score is anybody's guess.

I know they still owe Griffey Jr. money, but if they can afford both Dunn and Jr. now, why can't they afford a top line pitcher once Jr. is gone, and they shed some other bad contracts? (Patterson et al)

[hebroncougar]

I'd love to see it, it would signal we are serious. I also think we can sign Dunn. Castellini needs to ante up and back up his statements. For some reason, I think the Yanks are going to pass, if Cashman is still their GM.

[paintmered]

If you could sign him, there could be some young arms movable for a bat.

Makes a lot of sense all around.

To propose a variation on Princeton's theme: hoard thy young pitchers.

[Blitz Dorsey]

If "darkhorse" means absolutely no chance, then I agree 100 percent.

[RedsManRick]

I know they still owe Griffey Jr. money, but if they can afford both Dunn and Jr. now, why can't they afford a top line pitcher once Jr. is gone, and they shed some other bad contracts? (Patterson et al)

Because a number of players are in line to get significant raises due to their current contracts.

[JaxRed]

We should unload Arroyo's ridiculous contract so we can take on a ridiculous Sabathia contract.

[mth123]

I know they still owe Griffey Jr. money, but if they can afford both Dunn and Jr. now, why can't they afford a top line pitcher once Jr. is gone, and they shed some other bad contracts? (Patterson et al)

Big raises kick in for Harang and Arroyo and pretty much eats up all the money saved on JR. Harang jumps from $6.75 million in 2008 to $11 Million in 2009. Arroyo goes from $6.45 Million in 2008 to $9.5 million in 2009. Savings on Griffey equals $8.5 million counting his buy-out. Arroyo's and Harang's deals eat up all but a little over $1 Million of that. In 2010 when Griffey's $4 Million buy-out is off the books, Arroyo and Harang go up a combined $3 Million more. Krivsky knew the Griffey money would be available and already spent most of it.

[Homer Bailey]

Big raises kick in for Harang and Arroyo and pretty much eats up all the money saved on JR. Harang jumps from $6.75 million in 2008 to $11 Million in 2009. Arroyo goes from $6.45 Million in 2008 to $9.5 million in 2009. Savings on Griffey equals $8.5 million counting his buy-out. Arroyo's and Harang's deals eat up all but a little over $1 Million of that. In 2010 when Griffey's $4 Million buy-out is off the books, Arroyo and Harang go up a combined $3 Million more. Krivsky knew the Griffey money would be available and already spent most of it.


Arroyo is making $3.95 M this year. Also, I'm not sure if people realize this or factor this in, but due to the nature of Junior's contract, the Reds owe him money through 2024.

[mth123]

Arroyo is making $3.95 M this year. Also, I'm not sure if people realize this or factor this in, but due to the nature of Junior's contract, the Reds owe him money through 2024.

He's making $3.95 in Salary and $2.5 Million from the signing bonus on his extension. That equals $6.45 Million in 2008.

[Homer Bailey]

He's making $3.95 in Salary and $2.5 Million from the signing bonus on his extension. That equals $6.45 Million in 2008.

Didn't see that.

[guttle11]

There's no salary cap, folks. There will be nothing to stop Castellini from throwing $160 mil at Sabathia if he really wants to. It's not something I would even think of putting past him. That thought is both encouraging and scary at the same time.

[Caveat Emperor]

There's no salary cap, folks. There will be nothing to stop Castellini from throwing $160 mil at Sabathia if he really wants to. It's not something I would even think of putting past him. That thought is both encouraging and scary at the same time.

True. But he won't, because this type of move seems really out-of-character for Walt.

Walt liked/likes reclamation projects that can be had on the cheap. Low risk / High reward type players -- Braden Looper, Chris Carpenter, etc.

The key for the Reds will be identifying a pitching coach that can work with those types of players (ala Dave Duncan or Don Gullet) if Dick Pole doesn't fit.

[Jpup]

They might think about it, but it would be a terrible idea to sign him for more than 3 years. I would never throw that much at a pitcher unless it's someone that can afford the hit like the Yankees or Cubs. For Arod or Pujols, 6 years is OK, but not on someone that depends on their arm to carry them.