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reds44
07-13-2008, 07:19 PM
Team Leaders in OPS
Dunn: .918
Hairston: .894
Encarnacion: .823
Votto: .814
Ross: .806
Phillips: .798
Bruce: .765
Griffey: .748
Keppinger: .741

Keppinger, Griffey, Dunn is the Reds 2-3-4 in the order when they all play and Dunn, Encarnacion, Votto hit 5-6-7. Does anybody else see an issue with that?

I also love how Brandon Phillips is supposedly an all-star snub and everybody keeps looking for ways to replace Encarnacion.

edabbs44
07-13-2008, 07:22 PM
Everyone was infatuated with Keppinger until he got hurt. He was the cherry on top of the Krivsky sundae. Now the flavor of the month is Hairston. Ain't gonna last.

Ross' OPS was .701 just one week ago. I bet it will end up closer to that number than his current number.

So what am I saying? I am saying that the team just isn't very good. You can configure the lineup any which way you'd like...it isn't going make much of a difference, IMO.

reds44
07-13-2008, 07:24 PM
Everyone was infatuated with Keppinger until he got hurt. He was the cherry on top of the Krivsky sundae. Now the flavor of the month is Hairston. Ain't gonna last.

Ross' OPS was .701 just one week ago. I bet it will end up closer to that number than his current number.

So what am I saying? I am saying that the team just isn't very good. You can configure the lineup any which way you'd like...it isn't going make much of a difference, IMO.
I have no problem with Ross hitting 8th or thinking Hairston will go down the crapper eventually.

The problem is continuing to hit Keppinger/Griffey/Phillips ahead of Dunn/Edwin/Votto

mbgrayson
07-13-2008, 07:55 PM
I have no problem with Ross hitting 8th or thinking Hairston will go down the crapper eventually.

The problem is continuing to hit Keppinger/Griffey/Phillips ahead of Dunn/Edwin/Votto

I disagree on Keppinger. The stats listed above are OPS, which is fine for overall evaluation.

I think OBP is better to look at for the #1 and #2 hitters though. There, we see that Keppinger is fine: .353. And that is after several cold weeks coming back off an injury. Keppinger also makes contact: he has struck a total of 8 times all season.

edabbs44
07-13-2008, 08:02 PM
I disagree on Keppinger. The stats listed above are OPS, which is fine for overall evaluation.

I think OBP is better to look at for the #1 and #2 hitters though. There, we see that Keppinger is fine: .353. And that is after several cold weeks coming back off an injury. Keppinger also makes contact: he has struck a total of 8 times all season.

That I agree with.

GAC
07-13-2008, 08:18 PM
I'd like to see Kepp given a shot at lead off.

Then put Dunn in the #2 hole.

But until Griffey vacates that #3 spot, this offense will continue to sputter.

edabbs44
07-13-2008, 08:24 PM
I'd like to see Kepp given a shot at lead off.

Then put Dunn in the #2 hole.

But until Griffey vacates that #3 spot, this offense will continue to sputter.

I'm not sure if I blame Dusty 100% for the Jr / #3 slot bonanza. I would blame management in its entirety. It has been the same thing over and over...both with CF and with the lineup spot for the past few years.

LvJ
07-13-2008, 08:40 PM
This is how I have it in OOTP9:

Bruce, CF
Votto, 1B
Phillips, 2B
Dunn, LF
Encarnacion, 3B
Griffey, RF
Keppinger / Hariston, SS
Ross, C

That's simply how I would have things. :o

GAC
07-13-2008, 08:41 PM
I'm not sure if I blame Dusty 100% for the Jr / #3 slot bonanza. I would blame management in its entirety.

I blame him completely. He's the manager. I doubt this FO is dictating to Baker where his player's bat, or how his lineup is constructed. Knowing Baker, he wouldn't allow it. It seems he has more influence on this FO then visa versa.

But he has had no problem, throughout the course of this season, of moving guys all around in this batting order, and around Jr, cemented in that #3 spot, to try and shake up this offense.

Yet he denies the obvious. And when he was addressed on this issue earlier in the year, his reasoning was he does so out of respect for Jr.

That's totally Baker's decision. And that's fine because there is no sense beating our heads against the wall over it since we know it's not going to change.

But that is why I state.... Until Jr vacates that #3 spot, which won't happen till he leaves at season's end, this offense will continue to sputter.

Benihana
07-13-2008, 08:56 PM
I also love how Brandon Phillips is supposedly an all-star snub and everybody keeps looking for ways to replace Encarnacion.

I agree that Encarnacion gets a bad rap around here and is actually much better than he normally gets credit for. However, your evaluation of Phillips is off. While he may only be an .800 OPS guy, he also makes a lot of things happen that aren't included in the OPS stat- namely, he is great defensively and a menace on the basepaths. While OPS is a good stat to evaluate offensive production, it is not the only stat to evaluate a player, and that includes his All-Star credentials.

jojo
07-13-2008, 09:37 PM
Phillips is really 4th fiddle behind Utley, Hudson, and this season Uggla....

redsrule2500
07-13-2008, 09:38 PM
any lineup without patterson is pretty much welcome at this point.

The Griffey thing is a huge problem, Dusty not knowing what a leadoff hitter is supposed to be is another problem.

Edit: Crap I came back! lol

Ron Madden
07-13-2008, 11:11 PM
Team Leaders in OPS
Dunn: .918
Hairston: .894
Encarnacion: .823
Votto: .814
Ross: .806
Phillips: .798
Bruce: .765
Griffey: .748
Keppinger: .741

Keppinger, Griffey, Dunn is the Reds 2-3-4 in the order when they all play and Dunn, Encarnacion, Votto hit 5-6-7. Does anybody else see an issue with that?

I also love how Brandon Phillips is supposedly an all-star snub and everybody keeps looking for ways to replace Encarnacion.

Dunn and Phillips lead the team in EBH's with 38. Edwin has 35 and many fans say he continues to struggle and may need to be sent down. :confused:

fearofpopvol1
07-13-2008, 11:44 PM
Phillips is really 4th fiddle behind Utley, Hudson, and this season Uggla....

I'd take Phillips over Hudson.

SteelSD
07-13-2008, 11:50 PM
I'd take Phillips over Hudson.

Were Hudson a Red and Phillips a D-back, you'd be arguing that Hudson is the superior player.

RedlegJake
07-14-2008, 01:01 AM
Junior hitting third is just a ridiculous blind loyalty. Play him out of respect - as a 6 or 7 hitter his plate discipline and experience makes him a decent lower in the order bat but no way he should be in the 3rd spot. It's not doing Junior or the team any favors either since he gets challenged constantly - in the 7th spot he'll get more walk opportunities as pitchers will be careful with him and hope to work on Bako or Ross instead. Simply put, the Reds will be better with Junior gone - and it pains me to say that.

Phillips is a good 2d baseman - what? at worst the 4th best hitting second sacker and arguably the best glove (I would rank 2nd or 3rd but an argument can be made for him). My only beef with BP is Dusty's fault - when he's facing RH pitching he should be hitting like 6th not cleanup. Edwin at .788 vs RHers is much better than BP at .686 while BP has a smaller but appreciable advantage vs lefties. Flip flop them. Even better arrange the lineup so that Dunn is cleanup against Righties - with his .945 OPS.

I don't see what the big deal is in having a lefty lineup and a righty lineup, each arranged by OBP at top and Slg OBP in the middle.

Vs. Lefty Lineup
Hairston,CF .387/.459/.565/1.024
Keppinger,SS .371/.451/.516/.967
Votto, 1B .294/.376/.500/.876
Phillips,2B .369/.413/.721/1.134
Encarnacion,3B .301/.414/.482/.896
Dunn,LF .179/.375/.321/.696 - only 3 homers against lefties
Ross,C .255/.375/.340/715
Bruce,CF .208/.306/.264/.570
Pitcher

Bruce plays against most lefties in my world but gets subbed against a real tough one once in a while. He has to face them to learn to handle them. Dunner's career line against lefties is better but not great - so he drops and like Bruce gets subbed against lefties once in while. So, I'd need to find a 4th OFer who hits lefties and plays either corner.

vs RH lineup
Hairston, CF .331/.362/.460/.821
Bruce, RF .296/.347/.509/.856
Ross, C .283/.424/.509/.934
Dunn, LF .250/.385/.632/1.024
EE, 3B .237/.303/.474/.777
Votto,1B .275/.339/.451/.790
Phillips, 2B .241/.284/.374/.658
Kepp, SS .257/.306/.331/.637
Pitcher

Defense keeps BP in the lineup but when he needs a day off its against a tough RHer, I also drop him to 7th - lowest OBP and 2d lowest Slg in the lineup against RHers. And yes, I'd bat Ross that far up - he has always hit RHers well, why not? I'd also rest Ross only when necessary and leave him in the lineup. His bat against Bako's more than makes up for the difference in defense, imo.

Mario-Rijo
07-14-2008, 03:46 AM
Phillips is really 4th fiddle behind Utley, Hudson, and this season Uggla....

Utley and then Phillips, Hudson then Uggla.

Defensively Hudson and BP are pretty much a wash although I think BP has the better arm and maybe even more range. Hudson takes more BB's which is why I'm sure you have him ranked higher. But what BP lacks in OBP% to Hudson he makes up for with his Slg%. Also BP is the much better base stealer/runner.

BP is also 3 years younger.

Uggla may be the better offensive player but the difference here is again defense and baserunning.

Jpup
07-14-2008, 09:38 AM
Utley then Phillips. Hudson is a judy hitter.

pahster
07-14-2008, 09:59 AM
Utley then Phillips. Hudson is a judy hitter.

That Judy hitter has outproduced Phillips with the bat every year of their careers. Check out their pages on baseballreference.com.

Hudson: http://www.baseball-reference.com/h/hudsoor01.shtml
Phillips: http://www.baseball-reference.com/p/phillbr01.shtml

That said, Hudson is 30 and Phillips is 27.

jojo
07-14-2008, 10:11 AM
Utley and then Phillips, Hudson then Uggla.

Defensively Hudson and BP are pretty much a wash although I think BP has the better arm and maybe even more range. Hudson takes more BB's which is why I'm sure you have him ranked higher. But what BP lacks in OBP% to Hudson he makes up for with his Slg%. Also BP is the much better base stealer/runner.

BP is also 3 years younger.

Uggla may be the better offensive player but the difference here is again defense and baserunning.

Here's kind of a comparison of their '08's so far using projected VORP over 162 (i.e. based upon what they've accomplished during the first half; simply multiply VORPr*162) and defensive value per 162 games (this is based upon estimates of their true skill level using advanced play-by-play metrics over the last three season because a half season of defensive data really isn't useful for such a comparison).

Utley: VORP/162=70; Defense= +10; Total: 80;
Uggla: VORP/162=77; Defense=-5 to -10; Total: 70 to 75;
Hudson: VORP/162=38; Defense=+10; Total: 48;
Phillips: VORP/162=35; Defense=+5; Total: 40;

If considering base running, Bill James' site has a fun base running analysis stat but the effect on run values just isn't that great so ignoring base running doesn't make a big difference with these guys. Basically, it only helps separate Utley from the pack, Uggla ad Phillips are essentially even in this regard and Phillips is a little better than Hudson.

I think Hudson is better than Phillips straight up. Ask me if the difference is big enough to be worth the money after Hudson signs this off season though (my guess, is probably not).

Uggla's first half with the bat has destroyed second base and creates such a gap between he and Phillips that the differences in their leather can't come close to closing the gap.

RedsManRick
07-14-2008, 10:17 AM
I've certainly be ringing the lineup construction bell all year, so I agree with the basic premise of the thread as well as the insistence on separate lineups vL and vR. That said, as you speculate on good lineups, consider more than just this year's performance, especially when you get to splits.

Take Dave Ross for example. He's had a superb 69 PA against righties this year. But for his career, his OPS vR is 60 points lower than vL. 69 PA is not enough to suggest a true change in ability.

It takes a number of years to establish a platoon split.

nate
07-14-2008, 10:48 AM
I love baseballmusings.com lineup tool! Base on today's stats, here's what I would do. Note, these aren't their top lineups.

vs. LHP (http://www.baseballmusings.com/cgi-bin/LineupAnalysis.py?Player0=cf-hairston&OBA0=.461&Slug0=.563&Player1=ss-kep&OBA1=.453&Slug1=.515&Player2=2b-phillips&OBA2=.408&Slug2=.704&Player3=3b-EE&OBA3=.427&Slug3=.500&Player4=1b-votto&OBA4=.370&Slug4=.490&Player5=c-bako&OBA5=.262&Slug5=.468&Player6=lf-dunn&OBA6=.371&Slug6=.314&Player7=rf-griffey&OBA7=.320&Slug7=.330&Player8=pitcher&OBA8=.202&Slug8=.208&Model=0) (est. 6.19 runs/game)

SS-Kep
CF-Hairston
LF-Dunn
2B-Phillips
3B-EE
C-Bako
1B-Votto
Pitcher
RF-Griffey


vs. RHP (http://www.baseballmusings.com/cgi-bin/LineupAnalysis.py?Player0=rf-bruce&OBA0=+0.347&Slug0=+0.509&Player1=1b-votto&OBA1=+0.339&Slug1=+0.451&Player2=lf-dunn&OBA2=+0.385&Slug2=+0.632&Player3=c-ross&OBA3=.424&Slug3=.506&Player4=cf-hairston&OBA4=.362&Slug4=.460&Player5=3b-EE&OBA5=+0.303&Slug5=+0.474&Player6=2b-phillips&OBA6=+0.284&Slug6=+0.374&Player7=ss-kep&OBA7=+0.306&Slug7=+0.331&Player8=pitcher&OBA8=+0.202&Slug8=+0.208&Model=0)(est. 4.94 runs/game)

RF-Bruce
1B-Votto
LF-Dunn
C-Ross
CF-Hairston
3B-EE
2B-Phillips
Pitcher
SS-Kep


For maximum freakout, check (http://www.baseballmusings.com/cgi-bin/LineupAnalysis.py?Player0=cf-hairston&OBA0=.461&Slug0=.563&Player1=ss-kep&OBA1=.453&Slug1=.515&Player2=2b-phillips&OBA2=.408&Slug2=.704&Player3=3b-EE&OBA3=.427&Slug3=.500&Player4=1b-votto&OBA4=.370&Slug4=.490&Player5=c-bako&OBA5=.262&Slug5=.468&Player6=lf-dunn&OBA6=.371&Slug6=.314&Player7=rf-griffey&OBA7=.320&Slug7=.330&Player8=pitcher&OBA8=.202&Slug8=.208&Model=0) who bats leadoff vs. RHP.

Spring~Fields
07-14-2008, 09:14 PM
error

red-in-la
07-14-2008, 09:18 PM
Does that break the record for longest post? :D

Spring~Fields
07-14-2008, 09:23 PM
Does that break the record for longest post? :D

No the shortest, back to the drawing board :runaway:

:)

GAC
07-14-2008, 09:24 PM
Junior hitting third is just a ridiculous blind loyalty.

You nailed it with the "blind" part. :cool:

Sea Ray
07-14-2008, 09:29 PM
Interesting no one has suggested hitting Hairston and Keppinger 1, 2 in the order 'cause the Reds have a huge winning percentage when that's the case. Marty and Hal McCoy were talking about it over the weekend. I like them 1,2 and then put Dunn at #3 and Griffey no higher than 5th. I wouldn't mind using EE a little at cleanup but I'm not sure if he can handle it mentally. Kepp's numbers clearly have suffered since coming off the DL. They were in a bind and had to bring him back before he was ready.

Spring~Fields
07-14-2008, 09:34 PM
You nailed it with the "blind" part. :cool:



2008 Splits by batting position #3
GP AB BA OBP SLG OPS
#3St. Louis 95 357 .325 .434 .574 1.009
#3Chi Cubs 94 391 .307 .379 .522 .900
#3Houston 94 380 .287 .349 .463 .812
#3Milwaukee 94 385 .301 .348 .548 .896
#3Cincinnati 95 363 .229 .333 .375 .708
#3Pittsburgh 93 378 .259 .327 .405 .732
#3League 94 375 .290 .363 .478 .841

Matt700wlw
07-14-2008, 11:13 PM
how about trading Hairston? I know he's hurt now, but will (when healthy) he play like this next year? When healthy. maybe he has some value...

Matt700wlw
07-14-2008, 11:29 PM
I'd like to see Kepp given a shot at lead off.

Then put Dunn in the #2 hole.

But until Griffey vacates that #3 spot, this offense will continue to sputter.

I've wanted to see Keppinger in the leadoff spot since Patterson proved his suckitude in that hole - statistically Dunn in the 2 hole is good as well. Even Dusty Baker doesn't have the sack to tell Junior he isn't a 3 hole hitter anymore...that guy in Chicago would though....too bad he's a Cub

Spring~Fields
07-14-2008, 11:49 PM
Team Leaders in OPS
Dunn: .918
Hairston: .894
Encarnacion: .823
Votto: .814
Ross: .806
Phillips: .798
Bruce: .765
Griffey: .748
Keppinger: .741

Keppinger, Griffey, Dunn is the Reds 2-3-4 in the order when they all play and Dunn, Encarnacion, Votto hit 5-6-7. Does anybody else see an issue with that?
I also love how Brandon Phillips is supposedly an all-star snub and everybody keeps looking for ways to replace Encarnacion.

Am I concerned about the lineups, no, I am only concerned about what the OBP and SLG is that bats in the #1, #2, #3 and #4 positions and what they're OBP and SLG are in succession for the larger portion of the AB/PA for the aggregate of the season. Not only for the Reds but the competitions within the Central division, I would be kidding myself if I ignored the competition with a false sense of belief that it was entirely up to the Reds and the Reds alone when it comes to their runs, wins and losses.

Lineups exist for the purpose of scoring runs

Letís look at the Central division and see what teams are leading the division in hits and runs scored, their BA, OBP, SLG, OPS and how Cincinnati compares to their nearest competitors within their division.



2008 GP R H BA OBP SLG OPS
Chicago Cubs 94 505 925 .282 .360 .445 .805
Pittsburgh 93 454 851 .261 .325 .416 .741
Milwaukee 94 437 813 .254 .323 .437 .760
St. Louis 95 437 901 .274 .349 .426 .775
Cincinnati 95 414 794 .248 .325 .406 .730
Houston 94 409 835 .259 .321 .408 .729


Letís look at the Central division and the league to determine what the teams have recorded for each individual batting position under the following offensive categories BA, OBP, SLG OPS, categories which in turn contribute to the opportunity to score runs, and eventually the outcome of the game.
In addition a look to see how Cincinnati compares to their nearest competitors within the division for those categories.

I lean toward believing that lineups after the first four batting positions donít matter that much on teams with limited talent, or ones with a great deal of talent. Where they might be more critical for teams falling in between.

* First note that these listings were sorted by OBP for continuity and consistency in making the comparisons.

* Second lets note that the positions #1, #2, and #3 appear to get more AB/PA than the other batting positions, encouraging a team to place their most proficient and highly skilled batters in these batting positions to receive these additional AB and PA to enhance the potential for run scoring opportunities. ("proficient and highly skilled batters", ones that tend to make less outs)

* Look closely at the first three batting positions for each team in the comparison
* Then expand that comparison to the first five batting positions for the Cincinnati team
* We know that Cincinnati had opportunity to use some of their better players as alternatives in the #1, #2, and #3 for a large part of the season, and that management often chose otherwise while fostering lost opportunity and enabling the competition



2008 Splits by batting position #1
GP AB BA OBP SLG OPS
#1 St. Louis 95 409 .274 .341 .406 .747
#1 Pittsburgh 93 396 .275 .339 .472 .812
#1 Milwaukee 94 370 .224 .335 .386 .721
#1 Cincinnati 95 403 .270 .327 .397 .724
#1 Chi Cubs 94 416 .269 .325 .442 .768
#1 Houston 94 404 .208 .257 .295 .552
#1 League 94 400 .264 .331 .414 .745

2008 Splits by batting position #2
GP AB BA OBP SLG OPS
#2 Chi Cubs 94 394 .287 .368 .365 .733
#2 St. Louis 95 399 .296 .350 .461 .811
#2 Houston 94 384 .286 .346 .388 .734
#2 Milwaukee 94 387 .276 .329 .509 .838
#2 Cincinnati 95 398 .269 .326 .379 .705
#2 Pittsburgh 93 398 .244 .283 .392 .675
#2 League 94 392 .269 .331 .403 .734

2008 Splits by batting position #3
GP AB BA OBP SLG OPS
#3 St. Louis 95 357 .325 .434 .574 1.009
#3 Chi Cubs 94 391 .307 .379 .522 .900
#3 Houston 94 380 .287 .349 .463 .812
#3 Milwaukee 94 385 .301 .348 .548 .896
#3 Cincinnati 95 363 .229 .333 .375 .708
#3 Pittsburgh 93 378 .259 .327 .405 .732
#3 League 94 375 .290 .363 .478 .841

2008 Splits by batting position #4
GP AB BA OBP SLG OPS
#4 Houston 94 358 .363 .431 .659 1.091
#4 Chi Cubs 94 361 .296 .395 .524 .918
#4 Pittsburgh 93 362 .301 .379 .547 .926
#4 Milwaukee 94 361 .266 .339 .499 .838
#4 St. Louis 95 376 .255 .338 .481 .819
#4 Cincinnati 95 376 .266 .325 .457 .783
#4 League 94 365 .276 .356 .483 .840

2008 Splits by batting position #5
GP AB BA OBP SLG OPS
#5 Chi Cubs 94 355 .293 .391 .513 .904
#5 Cincinnati 95 329 .246 .381 .508 .888
#5 St. Louis 95 366 .295 .378 .516 .894
#5 Pittsburgh 93 368 .296 .353 .481 .834
#5 Houston 94 360 .258 .313 .472 .785
#5 Milwaukee 94 374 .259 .297 .479 .776
#5 League 94 358 .269 .347 .468 .816

2008 Splits by batting position #6
GP AB BA OBP SLG OPS
#6 Pittsburgh 93 341 .279 .370 .460 .831
#6 Chi Cubs 94 347 .268 .366 .438 .804
#6 St. Louis 95 358 .274 .359 .374 .733
#6 Cincinnati 95 352 .267 .334 .469 .803
#6 Milwaukee 94 347 .245 .323 .470 .793
#6 Houston 94 369 .260 .293 .434 .727
#6 League 94 354 .257 .326 .421 .748

2008 Splits by batting position #7
GP AB BA OBP SLG OPS
#7 Chic Cubs 94 341 .314 .397 .522. 919
#7 Houston 94 330 .288 .366 .439 .806
#7 Milwaukee 94 332 .262 .356 .404 .759
#7 Cincinnati 95 344 .291 .355 .468 .823
#7 St. Louis 95 351 .274 .348 .350 .699
#7 Pittsburgh 93 345 .261 .320 .394 .714
#7 League 94 344 .261 .328 .412 .740

2008 Splits by batting position #8
GP AB BA OBP SLG OPS
#8 Chicago Cubs 94 346 .272 .333 .376 .709
#8 Cincinnati 95 324 .228 .320 .377 .696
#8 Pittsburgh 93 344 .247 .305 .340 .645
#8 Milwaukee 94 334 .210 .273 .257 .530
#8 Houston 94 328 .198 .273 .299 .572
#8 St. Louis 95 336 .205 .257 .318 .575
#8 League 94 329 .229 .308 .326 .634


Now letís take a look at the individual players for the Reds that hit in those positions, having had the most AB in those batting positions, especially the batting positions that get the most AB/PA the #1, #2 and #3 batting positions at the top of the lineup and what their individual performances were measured by BA, OBP, SLG OPS

* Note these were sorted by the number of AB
* Note if a player has spent less than 10 AB in that batting position, I left them out.

* Compare this to the division rivals batting positions, leaving each individual to draw their own conclusions, as to how these may or may not have had an impact on the runs that the Reds scored and the games won or lost, if any impact at all.



2008 Cincinnati Reds splits batting position #1
GP AB BA OBP SLG OPS
NAME
C. Patterson 30 126 .190 .231 .341 .573
J. Hairston Jr. 30 122 .393 .449 .533 .981
Ryan Freel 21 83 .301 .363 .361 .724
Jay Bruce 10 40 .200 .250 .450 .700
Norris Hopper 6 24 .125 .192 .125 .317
Opponents 95 411 .275 .331 .431 .762


Items at a fast glance, with very little thought spent:
* This helps me to myself see what not to do at leadoff as hindsight can lead to eventual foresight
* Perhaps Hairston should have been with the team out of spring training, and leading off.
* Maybe some rookies should not be asked to leadoff at the major league level until they have shown that they are ready.
* Patterson and Hopper, performance numbers in a position that gets the majority of AB and PA, were there other alternatives.
* Individual made out the lineup contrary to the best of BA, OBP, SLG, OPS available to him, recurring mistake regardless of outcomes.
* The aggregate will mask a large part of the story for the #1 position in the early part 2008
* Management looking for a diamond in the rough, failed to objectively recognize coal
* Opponents holding their own in comparison



2008 Cincinnati Reds splits batting position #2
GP AB BA OBP SLG OPS
NAME
J. Keppinger 32 130 .269 .317 .385 .701
Jay Bruce 15 64 .344 .432 .516 .948
Paul Janish 13 42 .167 .239 .167 .406
J. Hairston Jr. 10 41 .293 .326 .512 .838
Adam Dunn 6 23 .261 .393 .565 .958
C. Patterson 7 22 .182 .217 .182 .399
Ryan Freel 5 22 .364 .348 .409 .757
K. Griffey Jr. 4 17 .176 .176 .176 .353
J. Cabrera 5 15 .467 .529 .533 1.063
Opponents 95 399 .298 .360 .441 .801


Items at a fast glance, with very little thought spent:
* If actions speak louder than words, the numbers resulting from those actions would be saying that Dunn would have been the right choice for the lineup card here.

* Tossed away a lot of potential opportunity, Janish, Patterson, Griffey, not taking full advantage of the high OBP, SLG of Dunn more frequently in that position. Hairston makes a nice showing. Unfortunately Freel was injured, limited playing time due to Patterson receiving much of it over a Freel or a Hairston for various reasons, unknown to most fans.

* Management under estimating some talent, while grossly over estimating other talent, from lack of skills to diminished skills, management flaws contributing to less than desirable outcomes, were better alternatives available.
* Opponents holding their own in comparison



2008 Cincinnati Reds splits batting position #3
GP AB BA OBP SLG OPS
Name
K. Griffey Jr. 77 283 .244 .358 .406 .764
B. Phillips 10 41 .195 .209 .220 .429
Jay Bruce 6 21 .190 .292 .333 .625
Opponents 95 387 .271 .355 .501 .857


Items at a fast glance, with very little thought spent:
* The #3 position appears to be a weak spot compared to the opponents
* Were there alternatives that might have produced more opportunity
* Sometimes pride and money speaks louder than actions and there results ?
* Opponents holding their own in comparison



2008 Cincinnati Reds splits batting position #4
GP AB BA OBP SLG OPS
Name
B. Phillips 80 321 .293 .340 .508 .848
Adam Dunn 6 20 .100 .250 .100 .350
Joey Votto 4 13 .154 .353 .154 .507
K. Griffey Jr. 3 12 .083 .154 .333 .487
E. Encarnacion 3 12 .083 .154 .083 .237
Opponents 95 368 .261 .349 .459 .808


Do lineups really matter after the first three batting positions #1, #2, #3, for a team suffer from multiple lost opportunities

Items at a fast glance, with very little thought spent:
* Comparable to the opponents stats here
* Otherís have very small samples,
* Could the #4 position batter here have been a better option in the #3 position, while moving the other OBP/SLG batters up into the #4?
* Opponents holding their own in comparison

* After this #4 point in the lineup I agree with theorist that say that lineups don't matter on the micro.



2008 Cincinnati Reds splits batting position #5
GP AB BA OBP SLG OPS
Name
Adam Dunn 61 194 .247 .410 .562 .971
Joey Votto 15 57 .263 .354 .561 .915
Encarnacion 15 47 .255 .364 .404 .768
Keppinger 5 19 .316 .381 .421 .802
Opponents 95 359 .323 .403 .616 1.019


Items at a fast glance, with very little thought spent:
* Several options for the #5 slot, perhaps making it possible to move Dunn up to the #2 or #3 positions, make better use of his OBP and SLG, potential scoring opportunities.
* Opponents holding their own in comparison



2008 Cincinnati Reds splits batting position #6
GP AB BA OBP SLG OPS
Name
E. Encarnacion 53 187 .251 .327 .471 .798
Joey Votto 17 66 .258 .300 .439 .739
J. Keppinger 11 37 .324 .395 .351 .747
Adam Dunn 9 30 .233 .351 .667 1.018
J. Hairston Jr. 4 11 .455 .462 .545 1.007
Andy Phillips 3 11 .182 .182 .364 .545
Opponents 95 356 .278 .344 .489 .833


Items at a fast glance, with very little thought spent:
* Any #2, #3, #4 positions hitters here?
* Were there better alternatives and options? possibly a weak number three position hitter
* Opponents holding their own in comparison or Reds out gunning the opponents in the lower portion of the order?



2008 Cincinnati Reds splits batting position #7
GP AB BA OBP SLG OPS
Name
Joey Votto 44 149 .315 .383 .477 .860
Encarnacion 14 51 .333 .414 .686 1.100
Jay Bruce 82 9 .241 .258 .276 .534
S. Hatteberg 9 27 .296 .344 .407 .751
J. Keppinger 6 20 .350 .409 .450 .859
Opponents 95 354 .257 .322 .404 .726


Items at a fast glance, with very little thought spent:
* Were there better alternatives and options? possibly ill-positioned leadoff hitters and rookies
* Opponents holding their own in comparison or Reds out gunning the opponents in the lower portion of the order?



2008 Cincinnati Reds splits batting position #8
GP AB BA OBP SLG OPS
Name
Paul Bako 54 176 .233 .318 .386 .705
David Ross 27 83 .253 .382 .434 .816
Valentin 13 28 .286 .323 .357 .680
C. Patterson 6 19 .105 .105 .316 .421
Opponents 95 339 .177 .247 .283 .530


Items at a fast glance, with very little thought spent:
* Three catchers limit opportunity for others to be on the team and to produce
*Management error in bringing in the third catcher, temporary options were available in the minors, in emergency need

Could the Reds have done better, can they do better with the personnel that they currently have?

Spring~Fields
07-15-2008, 02:17 AM
Runs scored by the teams in the Central division for 2008 and a look back for year to year variations
* Looking to see:
A. If the runs scored vary a great deal from year to year for the teams
B. If the ever increasing payrolls represent a rise in production or talent levels indicated by runs scored
C. What teams have dominated the Central division and if their payrolls indicated a disparity advantage
D. To see if any of the teams in the Central division follow a plan like Oakland, Arizona, Florida, Tampa, Minnesota
E. To see if lineups do matter, while thinking, lineups better matter, because either way a choice and a decision is made, results will be obtained, while opportunity is either seized or lost.



Central Division Year to date July 13 comparison 2008
Team GP RS RA DIFF RPG RA/RPG W-PCT GB POS
Chi 95 507 401 +106 5.337 4.221 .600 0 1 $ 118,345,833
Pitts 94 460 528 -68 4.892 5.617 .468 12.5 5 $ 48,689,783
St.L 96 448 425 +23 4.667 4.427 .552 4.5 2 $ 99,624,449
Milw 95 440 427 +13 4.632 4.495 .547 5.0 3 $ 80,937,499
Cin 96 416 468 -52 4.333 4.875 .479 11.5 4 $ 74,117,695
Hou 95 414 458 -44 4.358 4.821 .463 13.0 6 $ 88,930,414

Chicago Year to date July 13 comparison for the years 2002-2008
YR GP RS RA DIFF RPG RA/RPG W-PCT GB POS
08 95 507 401 +106 5.337 4.221 .600 0 1 $ 118,345,833
07 88 402 368 +34 4.568 4.182 .511 3.5 2 $ 99,670,332
06 88 354 448 -94 4.023 5.091 .386 15 5 $ 94,424,499
05 87 394 394 0 4.523 4.523 .494 12.5 3 $ 87,032,933
04 87 400 345 +55 4.598 3.966 .534 7.0 2 $ 90,560,000
03 94 417 419 -2 4.436 4.457 .485 3.0 3 $ 79,868,333
02 88 370 409 -39 4.205 4.645 .402 11.5 5 $ 75,690,833

St. Louis Year to date July 13 comparison for the years 2002-2008
YR GP RS RA DIFF RPG RA/RPG W-PCT GB POS
08 96 448 425 +23 4.667 4.427 .552 4.5 2 $ 99,624,449
07 86 371 445 -74 4.314 5.174 .465 7.5 3 $ 90,286,823
06 88 443 427 +16 5.034 4.852 .557 0 1 $ 88,891,371
05 88 447 340 +107 5.080 3.864 .636 0 1 $ 92,106,833
04 87 455 356 +99 5.230 4.092 .614 0 1 $ 83,228,333
03 94 533 473 +60 5.670 5.032 .510 1 2 $ 83,786,666
02 87 397 362 +35 4.563 4.161 .539 0 1 $ 74,660,875

Houston Year to date July 13 comparison for the years 2002-2008
YR GP RS RA DIFF RPG RA/RPG W-PCT GB POS
08 95 414 458 -44 4.358 4.821 .463 13.0 6 $ 88,930,414
07 90 402 447 -45 4.467 4.967 .433 10.5 5 $ 87,759,000
06 90 413 436 -23 4.589 4.844 .489 6.0 3 $ 92,551,503
05 87 365 362 +3 4.195 4.161 .506 11.5 2 $ 76,779,000
04 88 396 379 +17 4.500 4.307 .500 10.5 5 $ 75,397,000
03 94 473 403 +70 5.032 4.809 .526 0 1 $ 71,040,000
02 89 422 401 +21 4.742 4.506 .489 5.0 3 $ 63,448,417

Cincinnati Year to date July 13 comparison for the years 2002-2008
YR GP RS RA DIFF RPG RA/RPG W-PCT GB POS
08 96 416 468 -52 4.333 4.875 .479 11.5 4 $ 74,117,695
07 90 428 461 -33 4.756 5.122 .411 12.5 L $ 68,904,980
06 90 457 470 -13 5.078 5.222 .511 4.0 2 $ 60,909,519
05 88 434 518 -84 4.932 5.886 .399 21.0 L $ 61,892,583
04 88 411 452 -41 4.670 5.136 .528 7.5 3 $ 46,615,250
03 94 434 548 -114 4.617 5.830 .453 6.5 4 $ 59,355,667
02 90 384 410 -26 4.267 4.556 .505 2.5 2 $ 45,050,390
Milwaukee Year to date July 13 comparison for the years 2002-2008
YR GP RS RA DIFF RPG RA/RPG W-PCT GB POS
08 95 440 427 +13 4.632 4.495 .547 5.0 3 $ 80,937,499
07 89 436 398 +38 4.899 4.472 .551 0 1 $ 70,986,500
06 90 411 485 -74 4.567 5.389 .489 6.0 4 $ 57,568,333
05 88 392 374 +18 4.455 4.250 .477 14.0 4 $ 39,934,833
04 86 375 378 -3 4.360 4.395 .517 8.5 4 $ 27,528,500
03 93 429 507 -78 4.613 5.452 .385 12.5 6 $ 40,627,000
02 91 376 452 -76 4.132 4.967 .359 17.0 6 $ 50,287,833

Pittsburgh Year to date July 13 comparison for the years 2002-2008
YR GP RS RA DIFF RPG RA/RPG W-PCT GB POS
08 94 460 528 -68 4.892 5.617 .468 12.5 5 $ 48,689,783
07 89 368 436 -68 4.135 4.899 .449 9.0 4 $ 38,537,833
06 90 411 471 -60 4.567 5.233 .333 20.0 6 $ 46,717,750
05 87 365 403 -38 4.195 4.632 .448 16.5 5 $ 38,133,000
04 86 389 402 -13 4.523 4.674 .415 14.5 6 $ 32,227,929
03 91 405 446 -41 4.451 4.901 .427 7.5 5 $ 54,812,429
02 90 331 385 -54 3.678 4.278 .446 8.5 4 $ 42,323,599




Interesting comparison between the runs scored on the Jocketty teams in St. Louis and the Baker teams in Chicago for the years 2002 - 2006



Chicago Year to date July 13 comparison
YR GP RS RA DIFF RPG RA/RPG W-PCT GB POS
08 95 507 401 +106 5.337 4.221 .600 0 1 $ 118,345,833
07 88 402 368 +34 4.568 4.182 .511 3.5 2 $ 99,670,332
06 88 354 448 -94 4.023 5.091 .386 15 5 $ 94,424,499
05 87 394 394 0 4.523 4.523 .494 12.5 3 $ 87,032,933
04 87 400 345 +55 4.598 3.966 .534 7.0 2 $ 90,560,000
03 94 417 419 -2 4.436 4.457 .485 3.0 3 $ 79,868,333
02 88 370 409 -39 4.205 4.645 .402 11.5 5 $ 75,690,833

St. Louis Year to date July 13 comparison
YR GP RS RA DIFF RPG RA/RPG W-PCT GB POS
08 96 448 425 +23 4.667 4.427 .552 4.5 2 $ 99,624,449
07 86 371 445 -74 4.314 5.174 .465 7.5 3 $ 90,286,823
06 88 443 427 +16 5.034 4.852 .557 0 1 $ 88,891,371
05 88 447 340 +107 5.080 3.864 .636 0 1 $ 92,106,833
04 87 455 356 +99 5.230 4.092 .614 0 1 $ 83,228,333
03 94 533 473 +60 5.670 5.032 .510 1 2 $ 83,786,666
02 87 397 362 +35 4.563 4.161 .539 0 1 $ 74,660,875