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View Full Version : Dusty's dumbest move...



Wheelhouse
07-14-2008, 09:53 AM
I say it happened Sunday. Witness this quote:

The Reds took the early lead. They loaded the bases in the second with no outs. Edwin Encarnacion singled, Andy Phillips doubled and Corey Patterson was hit by a pitch.

"We had him on the ropes," Baker said.

David Ross got a run home with a sacrifice fly.

The usual play here is to have Bailey bunt. But the leadoff hitter, Jerry Hairston Jr., had been hit with a pitch as he tried to bunt in the first. He could not swing the bat properly as a result.

"That's why we let Homer hit," Baker said. "He's a pretty good hitter. Then let Jerry squeeze bunt or something."

But Bailey bounced into a 4-6-3 double play.

Hairston led off the third with a bunt. He beat it out, despite pulling up when his hamstring locked up. He was carried off the field.

So Dusty, Hairston COULD NOT swing the bat and you kept him in? With Bruce available on the bench? Having Bailey swing away because Hairston COULD NOT SWING THE BAT!!! Idiotic.

RedsManRick
07-14-2008, 10:12 AM
Just another one to add to the list. But to be fair, it's not like he had other OF options available. Oh, wait...

princeton
07-14-2008, 10:16 AM
the two-out squeeze play would have been interesting

especially with runners still on first and second

Jpup
07-14-2008, 10:16 AM
After that debacle and leaving Weathers in to pitch the 9th, I think Dusty needs to move on. He just isn't a good field manager at all. He might be a fine bench coach, but I can't see how he still has a job.

TeamBoone
07-14-2008, 12:13 PM
I haven't yet figured out why he pulled Bailey in a tie ballgame with 2 outs and a runner on first... just because a left was coming up? IMHO, not a good enough reason when he was pitching well.

princeton
07-14-2008, 12:39 PM
I haven't yet figured out why he pulled Bailey in a tie ballgame with 2 outs and a runner on first... just because a left was coming up? IMHO, not a good enough reason when he was pitching well.

let him succeed, then get him out before he screws up. That part I like.

VR
07-14-2008, 12:49 PM
let him succeed, then get him out before he screws up. That part I like.

Bingo.

If he gives up a two run jack to Fielder there....his big step forward in this start has been erased.
Baby steps.

PuffyPig
07-14-2008, 12:52 PM
I haven't yet figured out why he pulled Bailey in a tie ballgame with 2 outs and a runner on first... just because a left was coming up? IMHO, not a good enough reason when he was pitching well.

Bailey had thrown about 100 pitches and Fielder is one of those hitters that you don't let beat you with a right handed pitcher on the mound.

If Fielder had hit a HR off of Bailey, most posters here would have added that to the list of Baker's mistakes yesterday. And complained that Bailey was being pushed way too hard.

Baker removing Bailey whe he did was the exact right thing to do.

Caveat Emperor
07-14-2008, 12:59 PM
Sometimes it just seems like people bash on Dusty for being Dusty.

All things considered, I can't say he's been a terrible manager. Could he have been better? Of course. But, on the other hand, its not like I'm exactly pining for the days of Boone, Miley and Narron running the show.

He hasn't abused the young arms, and he's getting high production out of the BP arms as well.

Not a bad overall showing by Dusty. Certainly not worth the money he's being paid, but no worse than anything that's been around here in recent memory either.

Kc61
07-14-2008, 01:19 PM
Sometimes it just seems like people bash on Dusty for being Dusty.

All things considered, I can't say he's been a terrible manager. Could he have been better? Of course. But, on the other hand, its not like I'm exactly pining for the days of Boone, Miley and Narron running the show.

He hasn't abused the young arms, and he's getting high production out of the BP arms as well.

Not a bad overall showing by Dusty. Certainly not worth the money he's being paid, but no worse than anything that's been around here in recent memory either.


I agree and the team is more competitive than in recent years. The response is that the players are better, true, but keep in mind that they are near .500 and Harang is 3-11. Overall I'm ok with Dusty.

But I wasn't happy with the use of Weathers in the ninth yesterday. My hunch is that Dusty was influenced by all the bad publicity over the extra innings San Diego game. Just speculating that Dusty thought it might be a long extra innings game and didn't want to get caught short with relief pitchers again.

So he tried to stretch out Weathers and got burned. (Weathers as a Red has always been more effective in his first inning of work, putting him out there in the ninth was major high risk, particularly third straight appearance for him.)

redsmetz
07-14-2008, 01:49 PM
The truth is, statistically, you're always behind the eight ball when you come in to the ninth inning as the visiting team. According to the Win Expectancy calcultor, since 1977, the home team has one nearly 66% of all such games. Once the 1st runner reached, with nobody out, it rose to 71.6%. The error allowing runners on the corners made it nearly certain we'd lose (90%). Even if we'd successfully gotten the runner out, leaving the runner at second with one out, Milwaukee's chance of winning still was at 70.4%. Of course, if the error hadn't occurred and then the fly ball to right had occurred, moving the runner to third, Milwaukee's chances of winning were still nearly 65%.

Fun little tool - it would have been better to have maintained the lead, but we all knew that.

http://winexp.walkoffbalk.com/expectancy/search

Wheelhouse
07-14-2008, 01:50 PM
But is there worse managing than allowing a player to stay in who literally cannot swing the bat?

LvJ
07-14-2008, 01:54 PM
Amazing.

I mean, I thought the play was stupid when it happened, but to see this quote, the reasoning behind it all, what the... sigh.

Big Klu
07-14-2008, 02:32 PM
I agree and the team is more competitive than in recent years. The response is that the players are better, true, but keep in mind that they are near .500 and Harang is 3-11. Overall I'm ok with Dusty.

But I wasn't happy with the use of Weathers in the ninth yesterday. My hunch is that Dusty was influenced by all the bad publicity over the extra innings San Diego game. Just speculating that Dusty thought it might be a long extra innings game and didn't want to get caught short with relief pitchers again.

So he tried to stretch out Weathers and got burned. (Weathers as a Red has always been more effective in his first inning of work, putting him out there in the ninth was major high risk, particularly third straight appearance for him.)

And that's too bad, because with the three-day All-Star break looming on the horizon, there is actually precedent for using some of the starting pitchers in relief for an inning or two on the day before the break, if necessary. Cueto hadn't pitched since Wednesday, and Arroyo hadn't pitched since his five innings on Thursday. Both could have been available to give an inning in the pen in an emergency, if needed. I'm not saying that they should have been the first options, but with Burton unavailable, they could have provided insurance in case of another extra-inning game.

Big Klu
07-14-2008, 02:43 PM
But is there worse managing than allowing a player to stay in who literally cannot swing the bat?

Yeah, I gotta shake my head about that one. You don't let Homer swing the bat with one out and runners on first and third because Hairston on deck is hurt and can't do anything but bunt. You bunt Homer and pinch-hit for Jerry. Or maybe a bunt-and-run with Patterson at 1B. It's not like Bailey is Sabathia or Zambrano (or even Arroyo), and can handle the bat with some degree of aplomb. His name is Homer--he doesn't hit them.

Kc61
07-14-2008, 02:50 PM
And that's too bad, because with the three-day All-Star break looming on the horizon, there is actually precedent for using some of the starting pitchers in relief for an inning or two on the day before the break, if necessary. Cueto hadn't pitched since Wednesday, and Arroyo hadn't pitched since his five innings on Thursday. Both could have been available to give an inning in the pen in an emergency, if needed. I'm not saying that they should have been the first options, but with Burton unavailable, they could have provided insurance in case of another extra-inning game.


According to the Brewers announcers Dusty had Arroyo warming in the bullpen late in the game yesterday. Don't know if that means Arroyo was a serious candidate to get in the game. Doubt Dusty would experiment with Cueto in that spot, not after the San Diego debacle in late May.

Presumably, Affeldt and Majewski were available yesterday, as was Cordero. Anyone of the three was preferable there to another inning of Weathers after three straight appearances. Both Affeldt and Majewski can pitch two inning stretches, if the game went on that long.

Big Klu
07-14-2008, 02:57 PM
According to the Brewers announcers Dusty had Arroyo warming in the bullpen late in the game yesterday. Don't know if that means Arroyo was a serious candidate to get in the game. Doubt Dusty would experiment with Cueto in that spot, not after the San Diego debacle in late May.

Presumably, Affeldt and Majewski were available yesterday, as was Cordero. Anyone of the three was preferable there to another innings of Weathers after three straight appearances.

I don't think it would really be an experiment, though. Pitching one or two innings on three days rest shouldn't be any more taxing than making a regular start on four days rest. It doesn't really matter, though, because it didn't happen.

I agree that Arroyo would probably have been the first choice to be an emergency reliever--he has done it before, and he has said he likes pitching on short rest.

Caveat Emperor
07-14-2008, 11:21 PM
But is there worse managing than allowing a player to stay in who literally cannot swing the bat?

It was one AB in one game.

I'm not going to get too worked up.

dougdirt
07-14-2008, 11:24 PM
It was one AB in one game.

I'm not going to get too worked up.

I am because it shows the complete incompetence that our manager has.

Caveat Emperor
07-14-2008, 11:39 PM
I am because it shows the complete incompetence that our manager has.

No manager makes all the right moves. Not Sparky. Not Torre. Certainly not Dusty.

There's been a lot to like about what Dusty Baker has done with the Cincinnati Reds. How about giving the man a little bit of Dap for what he's done with the young pitchers and protecting their arms:


Edinson Volquez: 102.3 PPS (pitches per start)
Johnny Cueto: 98.1 PPS
Homer Bailey: 81.3 PPS

That's exactly what I (and many others) worried about going into the season, and Baker has handled the young staff perfectly. They stuck withs to find a bullpen Cueto after a rocky patch and he has his ERA back down to 4.67 and improving with just about every start, all while keeping his pitch count under the 100 mark average.

And while we're on the subject of pitching, how about a little more Dap for correctly managing a bullpen that many thought was going to be the achilles heel of this ballclub. There are SIX members of the active bullpen staff with ERAs under 4:


Jared Burton: 2.23 ERA
Francisco Cordero: 2.30 ERA
Bill Bray: 2.86 ERA
David Weathers: 3.69 ERA
Mike Lincoln: 3.89 ERA
Jeremy Affeldt: 3.91 ERA


That's pushing every button correctly to get the most out of your guys.

On the positional side of things, he sticking with Jay Bruce and Edwin Encarnacion when other managers would've benched one or both of them for other players. He's directly responsible (by all accounts) for Jerry Hairston being on this team, and he's getting a career year out of him at multiple different positions. He made the early decision to go with Votto full time over Scott Hatteberg when many, myself included, thought Votto was going to be sent to the bus leagues after his awful spring.

Baker can be infuriating at times, but that's the nature of managers and baseball. If you look at his season objectively, he's done a lot more good than he has bad, IMO. The team's two best pitchers have played like turds, and the team is still only a handful of games under the .500 mark. That's solid stuff, IMO.

Jpup
07-15-2008, 12:10 AM
Caveat, you are a great poster, but using ERA numbers for the bullpen to prove a point is a little out there.

BTW, Arroyo was in the pen for much, if not all, of the game on Sunday.

SteelSD
07-15-2008, 12:38 AM
Yeah, I gotta shake my head about that one. You don't let Homer swing the bat with one out and runners on first and third because Hairston on deck is hurt and can't do anything but bunt. You bunt Homer and pinch-hit for Jerry. Or maybe a bunt-and-run with Patterson at 1B. It's not like Bailey is Sabathia or Zambrano (or even Arroyo), and can handle the bat with some degree of aplomb. His name is Homer--he doesn't hit them.

With Runners on 2nd and 3rd with one out, you have your pitcher hit away. No problemo. With Runners on 1st and 2nd with one out, he needs to bunt- especially if he's nothing resembling a prolific hitting pitcher. You're absolutely correct.

Baker's CYA maneuver is classic "entitlement" behavior and rife with illogical framework. He simply doesn't think anyone will call him on his explanation being entirely implausible. Because he's Dusty Baker, dammit!

So, moving along, Baker outlines a scenario in which the following hitter, who can't swing the bat (Hairston), needs a pitcher to either get a hit or walk to move one of the two runners into "squeeze" position. That's unlikely enough. However, should the pitcher make an out to advance both runners, then we're presented with a scenario that can't possibly happen (a squeeze) because we'll now have two outs in the Inning. With two outs, a squeeze play is impossible, as everyone but Dusty Baker knows.

Bailey actually attempts to bunt the first pitch and bunts it foul. He then walks down to the 3B coach to get the sign explained to him. Either there was no bunt on (I didn't see Bailey look back for a sign before the first pitch) or the plan changed after the foul bunt attempt. I'm going with the former explanation based on Baker's "plan" and how far the 3B coach went down the line to get Bailey's attention after he entered the batter's box for that second pitch.

Let's hit away! And Bailey did a great job of nudging the ball into play quickly enough that the Brew Crew could turn double-duty. And this was after the Baker chose to let the pitcher hit because he identified that Hairston couldn't. Yet Baker didn't prefer to let a healthy batter take that singular AB with runners potentially on 2nd and 3rd w/2 Out had Bailey been able to successfully sacrifice. There was little chance of Bailey doing anything to advance a runner to 3B with less than 2 Outs, so Baker was banking on Bailey to plate a run right there.

Folks, when you're more confident in your Pitcher's ability to get a base hit than you are your leadoff hitter, then the latter hitter needs to be removed from the game in favor of a healty option regardless of his "handedness". This was clear and decisive stupidity from Baker and it led to a player who could no longer perform being sent up to lead off the next inning to do nothing but attempt to bunt for a base hit and said hitter tweaked his hammy on the play. Baker limited Hairston to one tool (his legs) and, while unfortunate, it's not completely surprising that a player who's pulled up lame within the past week while running to 1B ended up injured.

Baker's explanation for the Bailey/Hairston scenario was implausible enough. In fact, it was nearly impossible. But to allow an already-injured player to continue in a game and then take a PA is completely derelict. The rest of his moves in that game? Silly, but that's his standard.

The irony is that considering the number of dumb things Baker has done, I'm not at all surprised that he'd attempt to defend more indefensible decisions. He played with Hank Aaron, after all. Challenge Baker and he'll say something stupid pretty much every time. Heck, he'll do that even if he isn't challenged. The guy is likely the worst Manager in the game and we're stuck with him because he's a "name" guy. I'm more than starting to think that Castellini is way out of his depth.