RedsManRick
07-14-2008, 11:30 AM
Sal Baxamusa over at THT has released two spreadsheets that can be used to run Marcel projections through the end of 2008. For those of you who don't know, Marcel is an extremely basic projection system which merely regresses player performance to the mean. Remarkably, it's only marginally less accurate than the significantly more complex systems like PECOTA.
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/is-this-guy-for-real/
For example, I've run both Edinson Volquez and Bronson Arroyo -- two guys who both should do some regressing in the 2nd half.
Volquez IP ERA K BB WHIP
2008 to Date 117.7 2.29 126 56 1.24
Proj Balance 89 3.75 80 39 1.36
2008 Totals 207 2.92 206 39 1.29
Arroyo IP ERA K BB WHIP
2008 to Date 104 5.97 93 41 1.66
Proj Balance 79 4.28 63 27 1.49
2008 Totals 183 5.24 156 68 1.59
While past performance is the best predictor of future results, it's important to remember that "past performance" means a lot more than just what a guy has done this year. It's what he's done in the past and what we general expect from all players.
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/is-this-guy-for-real/
For example, I've run both Edinson Volquez and Bronson Arroyo -- two guys who both should do some regressing in the 2nd half.
Volquez IP ERA K BB WHIP
2008 to Date 117.7 2.29 126 56 1.24
Proj Balance 89 3.75 80 39 1.36
2008 Totals 207 2.92 206 39 1.29
Arroyo IP ERA K BB WHIP
2008 to Date 104 5.97 93 41 1.66
Proj Balance 79 4.28 63 27 1.49
2008 Totals 183 5.24 156 68 1.59
While past performance is the best predictor of future results, it's important to remember that "past performance" means a lot more than just what a guy has done this year. It's what he's done in the past and what we general expect from all players.