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View Full Version : You make the call: trade Jay Bruce for Josh Hamilton as it stands?



Ghosts of 1990
07-16-2008, 01:12 PM
You are our GM and Castellini has given you the grace to trade with the Texas Rangers to re-acquire Josh Hamilton. You have to look into the future and predict what is going to happen. The future health of the franchise long-term and your job rides heavily on this trade.

Texas will do the deal if you'd like. It is entirely up to you as GM. Do you choose to trade 21-year old mega prospect Jay Bruce for 27 year old Josh Hamilton straight up as it stands now?

You might be robbed of 5 years of production (assuming both will sign LTC with the Reds and remain with them for their entire career) if you pick up Hamilton.

Taking EVERYTHING into consideration, do you make this trade?

Brutus
07-16-2008, 01:17 PM
You are our GM and Castellini has given you the grace to trade with the Texas Rangers to re-acquire Josh Hamilton. You have to look into the future and predict what is going to happen. The future health of the franchise long-term and your job rides heavily on this trade.

Texas will do the deal if you'd like. It is entirely up to you as GM. Do you choose to trade 21-year old mega prospect Jay Bruce for 27 year old Josh Hamilton straight up as it stands now?

You might be robbed of 5 years of production (assuming both will sign LTC with the Reds and remain with them for their entire career) if you pick up Hamilton.

Taking EVERYTHING into consideration, do you make this trade?

I love Josh Hamilton, and I think he's the real McCoy, but I'm going to have to say no, personally.

There are too many unknown variables surrounding Hamilton. Will he relapse? Is he always going to need to be on a short leash? Due to the abuse he's gone through, how will he go through the age progression? I'm convinced he's legit, but will he continue this production?

So many questions I have about him. I still think I'd take Jay Bruce because of the age and enormous ability. Both players have balls jump off the bat like very few players around, and perhaps Hamilton has as much pop as anyone in the league, but while I'd be tempted (as of today) to take Hamilton (obviously), the future is bright enough for Bruce and uncertain enough for Josh that I'd still take Bruce.

757690
07-16-2008, 01:20 PM
Absolutely no. It is not just the 5 years, it is that Hamilton's body will break down faster because of his past. I think best case scenario for Hamilton is that he has 4-5 more good years. Mantle's stopped having solid years after age 32, and had a few weak ones before that. And he only drank.

We are probably seeing the worst Bruce will ever be right now. I see him putting up Hamilton type numbers for a long time. As long as the Reds are committed to keeping Bruce past his free agent years, than I would take him over Hamilton.

Ghosts of 1990
07-16-2008, 01:23 PM
I'm holding my answer for a bit until good discussion gets going on this.

But I just wanted to say that Brutus and 757690 each had awesome posts I thought.

big boy
07-16-2008, 01:25 PM
Hamilton's body will break down faster because of his past. I think best case scenario for Hamilton is that he has 4-5 more good years. Mantle's stopped having solid years after age 32, and had a few weak ones before that. And he only drank.

I don't think this is accurate. Mantle drank more and more and by the time he was in his 30s was an all out lush. Hamilton, on the other hand, has been cold turkey for 2 or 3 years now. His heroin usage in his early 20s should not affect his performance in the future.

I'll take the trade.

steig
07-16-2008, 01:26 PM
Absolutely not! I would love to have Hamilton on my team as long as he is cheap and under the teams control or in arbitration; but i don't want to give him a long term contract. He lives very carefully because he is worried that he may relapse or want not be able to control himself. That's not the type of player I would want to have long term.

schmidty622
07-16-2008, 01:29 PM
Uh no

Ghosts of 1990
07-16-2008, 01:30 PM
I think it is tough for a lot of Reds fans to pull the trigger on this trade so it may have been a bad question to ask. I think it is tough because the reality is, we have Jay Bruce. We probably like him more. He is a Red and he IS the future, while Hamilton is gone. But just in terms of what you see now with Hamilton and what you can see down the road with Bruce. Can you have visions of him doing the things Hamilton does? I was just thinking about this over the AS break.

Ghosts of 1990
07-16-2008, 01:31 PM
So far we have 5-no and 1-yes

pitcher7
07-16-2008, 02:23 PM
Since Bruce has come up, I have thought of him like a poor man's Josh Hamilton. That being said, he is also 5 or 6 years younger. His potential is enormous and despite the fact that having Josh Hamilton would be terrific, Bruce has too much potential for him to be traded.

Shawn_RedsFan
07-16-2008, 02:31 PM
No, but I'd give Dunn for him :D

Carolina Red
07-16-2008, 02:46 PM
No, but I'd give Dunn for him


I'd give Dunn and pay his salary.

BlastFurnace
07-16-2008, 02:57 PM
Josh Hamilton in a heartbeat.

tommycash
07-16-2008, 03:08 PM
Jay Bruce

CarolinaRedleg
07-16-2008, 03:16 PM
Bruce.

superred
07-16-2008, 04:33 PM
bruce undoubtedly

Fon Duc Tow
07-16-2008, 04:46 PM
"Someday" never comes...

I'd make the trade.

Ghosts of 1990
07-16-2008, 05:00 PM
http://www.minorleagueball.com/2008/4/26/461071/crystal-ball-jay-bruce

Thats a good article to read. Thats what Sickels projects that Bruce's career could look like. I think I'm a realist and I honestly like the prediction a lot.

James B.
07-16-2008, 05:18 PM
I would take Hamilton.

Stephenk29
07-16-2008, 05:22 PM
Jay Bruce was my initial gut reaction, and I'll hold to that with the previous posts just confirming my thoughts.

NeilHamburger
07-16-2008, 05:59 PM
Hamilton, he undoubtedly has more potential to be an all century type of player. Scouts have always said that about him. Bruce has great potential, but if both live up to potential (and it looks like Hamilton will) then Hamilton's ceiling is higher.

ChatterRed
07-16-2008, 06:24 PM
I'd give up Corey Patterson, Dunn, Griffey, Freel, and Arroyo for him......and I'd throw in a few more players (I'd like to get rid of). ;)

laxtonto
07-16-2008, 06:27 PM
I would trade Bruce for Hamilton and it has nothing to do with Talent.

After watching the Home Run Derby and seeing first hand the difference Hamilton makes on public perception both locally in Dallas and nationally,there is no reason why not to trade Bruce for Hamilton. People forget that this is a business, and regardless with the possible pitfalls attached, Hamilton in the short term and long term makes more finical sense.

Can the Reds say, that even with the spectacular success Volquez has had, they have received any where close to the same amount of exposure as Texas has for Hamilton?

Hamilton's story is worth more to a franchise than the difference between the ages of Bruce and Hamilton long term. Its not just team exposure, its merchandise sales, its increased ad revenue, and better tv packages. Hamilton is a gold mine for his parent club.

And for all those who question Hamilton's ability to stay sober, lets not forget that you can just as easily question's Bruce's ability to reach his vaunted ceiling. If Bruce had been an everyday regular for several seasons playing at an allstar level is one thing, you couldn't question reaching his ceiling. But since he was called up earlier this season, no one really knows. We all have our hopes that Bruce will be a dynamic force on the diamond for years to come, but no one knows for sure. I guarantee Hamilton has this hope for himself as well.

Blue
07-16-2008, 06:46 PM
I don't know. Hamilton's ceiling might be what we're seeing right now, right around the .920 OPS mark. Bruce projects to be better than that, but it is a projection.

LexingtonLegend
07-16-2008, 08:18 PM
hamilton without question... he's got better play discipline and better tools in the field. he's a stolen base threat, and has arguably the best arm in the league. as good as bruce is, you can't teach that. I'd never do this trade though, I don't think Hamilton would be willing to sign a LTC with cincy after we traded him. You still have Bruce's loyalty here, and he's more likely to retire a Red.

Dunnateher
07-16-2008, 08:47 PM
This is a business, what happens if (God forbid) Hamilton falls again? The whole Josh story is special and worthy of the attention he gets, but remember the squabbling in the clubhouse when he was here. Josh is very out there with his testimonials which is great for children and addicts looking for a role-model, but which makes some people uncomfortable (the reds players never asked him to go out after agame). 19 year old Josh potential outweighs 19 year old Jay. I would have loved to have seen both of them as Reds but for the next 15 years I will take Bruce.

BlastFurnace
07-16-2008, 08:54 PM
If both of them hit their ceiling of potential in...let's say...a 10 year career, it's an easy choice in taking Hamilton. Hamilton was hitting Major League pitching after basically being out of Baseball for 3 years. Before he played in the major leagues, he had very little Minor League experience...and he comes to Major League baseball and has one of the highest RBI totals before the All Star break in the history of baseball. Last year, when he was healthy, wasn't too shabby either. He is an incredible talent. You can't pitch around the guy.

Bruce, on the other hand, has shown weaknesses against the same Major League pitching without taking any time off from Baseball.

Josh is only 27. He easily could have a 15 year career. I'd take Josh in a hearbeat.

I will say this though, I think Arlington, Texas is a perfect environment for him. Living in Texas, I am glad I get to see him play nearly every game...but I wish the Reds could have found a way to keep him.

Ghosts of 1990
07-16-2008, 10:08 PM
This is a very good debate

Orenda
07-16-2008, 11:32 PM
To me it depends on Hamilton's arbitration status. If he and Bruce situations are similar, then I would take Hamilton everyday of the week. My decision would be based on the assumption that if both turn out to be high quality MLB players then they will price their selfs out of Cincinnati in 5-8 years anyway. So I'd roll the dice that Hamilton could stay clean, healthy, and productive for those 5-8 years, in what is generally considered the "prime years" for male athletes (late 20's early 30's). On the other hand, Bruce will most likely experience growing pains for a year or two which can be a contradiction to a"win now" approach ownership is trying to pursue. Hamilton would give you a middle of the order hitter and a plus defender to build around.

Betterread
07-16-2008, 11:34 PM
Yes. I really like Jay Bruce, but Josh Hamilton is a special baseball player. Bruce's comp. is Larry Walker. Hamilton's comp is Micky Mantle. Who would you rather have? Lots of people saw glimpses of his talent last year, but the Reds gave up on him too soon. They regret it allready.
Volquez for Hamilton was a net loss of talent. Its not close.

fadetoblack2880
07-17-2008, 12:58 AM
nope

JayBruceFan
07-17-2008, 07:06 AM
Bruce

kpresidente
07-17-2008, 12:27 PM
I'd take Hamilton in a heartbeat.

Hamilton right now represents Jay Bruce's ceiling. So the question is, do you trade the prospect for the current star? Normally, in that case, you're trading potential for dollars.

But not in this case. Hamilton is still at arbitration-level salary. That's the kicker for me. Sure, one day Bruce may be as good a player, but by then he'll be making a lot more money than Hamilton is now.

K-GAR
07-17-2008, 12:45 PM
Hamilton for me....Is anybody more dedicated to getting better and doing the right things than Josh? He has been as low as a human can go and he knows what it's like to lose everything, you can bet your posterior that he'll be doing everything he possibly can to *never* let that happen again, that alone gives him an edge on most players in majors, you know he's gonna be there day in and day out doing the right things and getting better. I'm not by any means saying Bruce won't be doing that, don't take it that way. I'm simply saying Josh will always appreciate every opportunity and make the most of it every single day and will almost certainly do that at a higher level than most simply because of his past.

Having said that, it's only a small part of why i'd rather have him, let's be real, no matter how grounded someone is or how hard they work or how many of the "right" things they do.... if they're not as talented, it doesn't matter. The talent will almost always rise above with half the effort and desire of an average player so unless they are talented to go along with those traits, it's a moot point.

The biggest reason for me is that Hamilton represents what we all *want* bruce to be, will he put up those numbers? surpass them? nobody knows, but what we do know is that as long Josh Hamilton is healthy and doesn't fall back to his demons he will 99.9% of the time be the most dangerous hitter in his teams uniform and is already putting up those "hopeful" numbers. For me, Hamilton is just like fast forwarding Bruce's career 5 years *IF* he realizes his potential. A bird in the hand is always better than two in the bush.

shredda2000
07-17-2008, 01:00 PM
Yes. I really like Jay Bruce, but Josh Hamilton is a special baseball player. Bruce's comp. is Larry Walker. Hamilton's comp is Micky Mantle. Who would you rather have? Lots of people saw glimpses of his talent last year, but the Reds gave up on him too soon. They regret it allready.
Volquez for Hamilton was a net loss of talent. Its not close.

Hamilton may be the next Mickey Mantle, but...could Volquez be the next Pedro Martinez? I think so...

bgwilly31
07-17-2008, 01:35 PM
I think it would depend on our situation.

If the reds were going to be extremely committed to make a run for the WS for the next 3 years.

Than i say take it!

But if its the situation were in now after we've traded him away. "building again" (never ending) STory of a cincy fans life.

I would say no. Better to keep bruce and see what he becomes.

BlastFurnace
07-17-2008, 02:00 PM
Hamilton for me....Is anybody more dedicated to getting better and doing the right things than Josh? He has been as low as a human can go and he knows what it's like to lose everything, you can bet your posterior that he'll be doing everything he possibly can to *never* let that happen again, that alone gives him an edge on most players in majors, you know he's gonna be there day in and day out doing the right things and getting better. I'm not by any means saying Bruce won't be doing that, don't take it that way. I'm simply saying Josh will always appreciate every opportunity and make the most of it every single day and will almost certainly do that at a higher level than most simply because of his past.

Having said that, it's only a small part of why i'd rather have him, let's be real, no matter how grounded someone is or how hard they work or how many of the "right" things they do.... if they're not as talented, it doesn't matter. The talent will almost always rise above with half the effort and desire of an average player so unless they are talented to go along with those traits, it's a moot point.

The biggest reason for me is that Hamilton represents what we all *want* bruce to be, will he put up those numbers? surpass them? nobody knows, but what we do know is that as long Josh Hamilton is healthy and doesn't fall back to his demons he will 99.9% of the time be the most dangerous hitter in his teams uniform and is already putting up those "hopeful" numbers. For me, Hamilton is just like fast forwarding Bruce's career 5 years *IF* he realizes his potential. A bird in the hand is always better than two in the bush.

Exactly! Great points.

AFalcon10
07-17-2008, 05:01 PM
This is a real tempting offer. Extremely enticing. I have to say no but in doing so I am placing an enormous amount of hope that Bruce develops into the player we all project him to be. Hamilton really is a star and , in my opinion, will be for the rest of his career but Jay Bruce represents the future of the Cincinnati Reds.

BlastFurnace
07-17-2008, 05:22 PM
This is a real tempting offer. Extremely enticing. I have to say no but in doing so I am placing an enormous amount of hope that Bruce develops into the player we all project him to be. Hamilton really is a star and , in my opinion, will be for the rest of his career but Jay Bruce represents the future of the Cincinnati Reds.

What amazes me the most about Hamilton is how he was completely out of Baseball for nearly 3 years, put his body through all kinds of valleys....comes back, and does this against Major League pitching.

AFalcon10
07-17-2008, 05:25 PM
What amazes me the most about Hamilton is how he was completely out of Baseball for nearly 3 years, put his body through all kinds of valleys....comes back, and does this against Major League pitching.


And thats after coming from A ball! Simply amazing player and even more amazing player. For all the times we talk down the Reds management - I am proud to be a fan of the organization that gave this young man a second chance.

BlastFurnace
07-17-2008, 05:53 PM
And thats after coming from A ball! Simply amazing player and even more amazing player. For all the times we talk down the Reds management - I am proud to be a fan of the organization that gave this young man a second chance.

Krivisky did some good things while he was with us, with Brandon Phillips and with Josh. Imagine having Josh, Dunn, and Bruce in our outfield.

The thing I was thinking about during the All Star Game was that every single GM in Baseball, other than Daniels in Texas (and that is only because they currently have him on their roster), was kicking themselves for not going after Josh when he was available. Regardless of how the Cubs season is going, their fans have to be asking..."Why did we trade him to Cincinnati"? They had no reason...either from a cost or position standpoint...for not giving him a shot to make their ball club.

Blue
07-17-2008, 06:52 PM
Hamilton right now represents Jay Bruce's ceiling.

I don't think this is right. I think Bruce has the ceiling of an elite slugger with an OPS north of Hamilton's very good .920 (Dunn's is .918). Hamilton has a lot of RBIs, but his RBI level isn't sustainable at his current OPS level. The guy is really good, but there's no reason to make him out to be better than he actually is.

BlastFurnace
07-17-2008, 08:34 PM
I don't think this is right. I think Bruce has the ceiling of an elite slugger with an OPS north of Hamilton's very good .920 (Dunn's is .918). Hamilton has a lot of RBIs, but his RBI level isn't sustainable at his current OPS level. The guy is really good, but there's no reason to make him out to be better than he actually is.

Hamilton has had a great half of the season. Bruce had a great 2 weeks. Bruce has much more to prove than Josh does at this point. Bruce hasn't shown that he can be an elite slugger yet. He may in the future, but not yet.

Blue
07-17-2008, 09:00 PM
Hamilton has had a great half of the season. Bruce had a great 2 weeks. Bruce has much more to prove than Josh does at this point. Bruce hasn't shown that he can be an elite slugger yet. He may in the future, but not yet.

Right. That's why my post was about his ceiling.