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OnBaseMachine
07-16-2008, 07:13 PM
1. Yonder Alonso - he hasn't signed yet but I'm confident he will sign and when he does he'll rank as the biggest impact bat in the Reds minor league system IMO. He's got 30 homerun power and a great eye at the plate which will allow him to post high on base percentages throughout his career. I look for him to reach the majors sometime in late 2009.

2. Neftali Soto - this may come as a surprise to some but I love the potential in Soto's bat. I am a huge Todd Frazier fan but I think Soto has more potential. He's currently hitting .392/.425/.722 - 1.146 OPS between Billings and Dayton and the kid is only 19-years old. He's got power to all fields and doesn't strikeout a lot. His long wiry frame should allow him to develop huge power. IMO he's the best RH in the Reds system since Austin Kearns.

3. Todd Frazier - A couple months ago Frazier would have ranked #1 on this list after Jay Bruce graduated to the majors but with the drafting of Yonder Alonso and emergence of Neftali Soto he's now third on the list. I like his bat a lot. His solid power and good eye at the plate reminds me of Kevin Youkilis. He looks like he'll be a solid hitter for average and hit 25 homeruns while drawing plenty of walks. He could end up at 3B, 1B, or LF, it doesn't matter, his bat should play anywhere.

4. Chris Valaika - Valaika reminds me so much of Michael Young from the Rangers. Similar size, both are average shortstops, and they even went to the same college and their minor league stats are very similar. Valaika has decent power and hits for average and could be ready for the majors sometime in 2009.

5. Sean Henry - Henry is a smallish (5'10" 180) 22-year old outfielder the Reds acquired from the Mets last August for Jeff Conine. He's currently hitting .320/.394/.498 - .892 OPS with AA Chattanooga. He may never be a star but he seems to be putting it together and could develop into a fine 4th outfielder for the Reds within the next couple years, and Reds fans know we could use solid bench players.

6. Shaun Cumberland - another guy who was acquired last year as a throw in in the Jorge Cantu deal. He'll soon turn 24 and is currently hitting .291/.375/.449 - .825 OPS between Chattanooga and Louisville. Like Henry, he may never develop into a star but he could be a very good backup outfielder or even a starter. He's got a solid eye at the plate and can play all three outfield positions.

7. Drew Stubbs - I love the defense Drew Stubbs provides but this is all about the bat. I like his ability to draw a walk and steal bases but his lack of power so far is what has him so low. If he can start showing more power in Chattanooga then he'll get bumped up a few spots on this list at the end of the season.

8. Juan Duran - this is based on ability alone as Duran only has some 40 atbats or so in the Dominican Summer League. He's got the potential to jump to the top of this list in a couple of seasons with all the talent he's got. His unbelievable raw power and ability to draw a walk right now is what forced me to put him in the top ten.

9. Danny Dorn - Dorn has platoon player written all over him as he crushes right handed pitchers but struggles mightily against lefties. He's currently hitting .286/.369/.557 against RHP in AA Chattanooga. He's another guy who could reach the majors sometime in 2009 and provide the Reds with a solid bat off the bench.

10. Brandon Waring - I love the huge power Waring brings to the table but his high strikeout totals in Single-A are concerning. He's got some of the best power in the minors along with the ability to take a walk but he'll need to cut down on the strikeouts or else he'll be exposed at higher levels.

Just missing the cut: Devin Mesoraco, Alex Buchholz, Alexis Oliveras, Justin Turner, Juan Francisco, and Chris Dickerson.

mth123
07-16-2008, 07:44 PM
Not sure if this is pure hitting or position players. Assuming pure hitting:

1. Frazier
2. Alonso
3. Soto

big gap

4. Dorn
5. Henry
6. Cumberland
7. Valaika
8. Gutierrez
9. Waring
10. Francisco

Grande Donkey
07-16-2008, 08:00 PM
1. Yonder Alonso - he hasn't signed yet but I'm confident he will sign and when he does he'll rank as the biggest impact bat in the Reds minor league system IMO. He's got 30 homerun power and a great eye at the plate which will allow him to post high on base percentages throughout his career. I look for him to reach the majors sometime in late 2009.

2. Neftali Soto - this may come as a surprise to some but I love the potential in Soto's bat. I am a huge Todd Frazier fan but I think Soto has more potential. He's currently hitting .392/.425/.722 - 1.146 OPS between Billings and Dayton and the kid is only 19-years old. He's got power to all fields and doesn't strikeout a lot. His long wiry frame should allow him to develop huge power. IMO he's the best RH in the Reds system since Austin Kearns.

3. Todd Frazier - A couple months ago Frazier would have ranked #1 on this list after Jay Bruce graduated to the majors but with the drafting of Yonder Alonso and emergence of Neftali Soto he's now third on the list. I like his bat a lot. His solid power and good eye at the plate reminds me of Kevin Youkilis. He looks like he'll be a solid hitter for average and hit 25 homeruns while drawing plenty of walks. He could end up at 3B, 1B, or LF, it doesn't matter, his bat should play anywhere.

4. Chris Valaika - Valaika reminds me so much of Michael Young from the Rangers. Similar size, both are average shortstops, and they even went to the same college and their minor league stats are very similar. Valaika has decent power and hits for average and could be ready for the majors sometime in 2009.

5. Sean Henry - Henry is a smallish (5'10" 180) 22-year old outfielder the Reds acquired from the Mets last August for Jeff Conine. He's currently hitting .320/.394/.498 - .892 OPS with AA Chattanooga. He may never be a star but he seems to be putting it together and could develop into a fine 4th outfielder for the Reds within the next couple years, and Reds fans know we could use solid bench players.

6. Shaun Cumberland - another guy who was acquired last year as a throw in in the Jorge Cantu deal. He'll soon turn 24 and is currently hitting .291/.375/.449 - .825 OPS between Chattanooga and Louisville. Like Henry, he may never develop into a star but he could be a very good backup outfielder or even a starter. He's got a solid eye at the plate and can play all three outfield positions.

7. Drew Stubbs - I love the defense Drew Stubbs provides but this is all about the bat. I like his ability to draw a walk and steal bases but his lack of power so far is what has him so low. If he can start showing more power in Chattanooga then he'll get bumped up a few spots on this list at the end of the season.

8. Juan Duran - this is based on ability alone as Duran only has some 40 atbats or so in the Dominican Summer League. He's got the potential to jump to the top of this list in a couple of seasons with all the talent he's got. His unbelievable raw power and ability to draw a walk right now is what forced me to put him in the top ten.

9. Danny Dorn - Dorn has platoon player written all over him as he crushes right handed pitchers but struggles mightily against lefties. He's currently hitting .286/.369/.557 against RHP in AA Chattanooga. He's another guy who could reach the majors sometime in 2009 and provide the Reds with a solid bat off the bench.

10. Brandon Waring - I love the huge power Waring brings to the table but his high strikeout totals in Single-A are concerning. He's got some of the best power in the minors along with the ability to take a walk but he'll need to cut down on the strikeouts or else he'll be exposed at higher levels.

Just missing the cut: Devin Mesoraco, Alex Buchholz, Alexis Oliveras, Justin Turner, Juan Francisco, and Chris Dickerson.You have Henry to high IMO. I wouldn't have Waring in the top 10 either with the holes in his offensive game.

OnBaseMachine
07-16-2008, 08:02 PM
You have Henry to high IMO. I wouldn't have Waring in the top 10 either with the holes in his offensive game.

Yeah I just kind of threw it together after the top four because of the big drop off. Juan Duran will eventually rank near the top of this list IMO but I left him low for right now because the lack of experience.

HBP
07-16-2008, 08:03 PM
Mainly agree OBM. I'd still put Frazier ahead of Soto right now but that could change if he keeps tearing it up until the end of the year. I don't rank Duran in anything right now, too much of an unknown, maybe when he starts playing in the states. mth is right though, there's a big gap between the top (plus Valaika for me) and the rest which shows the main weakness in the system right now.

thorn
07-16-2008, 08:38 PM
Personally, I'd stick Heisey in the Top 10 somewhere, possibly over Duran and Waring, he at least deserved an honorable mention.

Redman15
07-16-2008, 09:01 PM
My top 10

1. Todd Frazier .304 avg 13 HR's 52 RBI's

2. Yonder Alonso ? to be proven

3. Chris Valaika .318 avg 15 HR's 59 RBI's.

4. Neftali Soto Off to great start.

5. Juan Francisco 12 HR's 97 hits 55 RBI's

6. Sean Henry .316 avg 55 runs 54 RBI's

7. Danny Dorn 11 HR's 54 hits 30 extra base hits.

8. Justin Turner .302 avg 50 runs, 41 RBI's.

9. Chris Heisey 93 hits in 92 games. 27 Doubles, 56 runs.

10. Shaun Cumberland .291 avg 58 runs, 30 RBI's


__________________

BuckeyeRedleg
07-16-2008, 11:49 PM
Well done OBM. I like it.

ChatterRed
07-17-2008, 12:16 AM
At this point, the top 3 are all that matter and the only ones who are definite major leaguers at this point.

icehole3
07-17-2008, 06:29 AM
In my opinion Soto is an untouchable at this point, his bat speed reminds me of Eric the Red.

Kc61
07-17-2008, 01:28 PM
Soto had only 2 homers at the GCL level last year. Sarasota ballpark is not an easy hitter's park but 2 is 2. He had an .809 OPS. I know, he got hurt at some point.

This year he hit 4 homers at Billings, a good hitters' league. He has 1 at Dayton so far. He's OPSing over 1.000 across both the Pioneer and Midwest Leagues and clearly is very advanced for his age. Very.

But Soto only has 100 at bats this year, let's give this a little time before enshrining him. He's a top ten Reds prospect, but let's not plan the trip to Cooperstown quite yet.

Finally, I know that Francisco has a plate discipline problem but he is a serious power prospect with great tools. Putting him behind guys like Cumberland and Henry as an offensive prospect is, well, highly debatable.

OnBaseMachine
07-17-2008, 01:35 PM
Soto had only 2 homers at the GCL level last year. Sarasota ballpark is not an easy hitter's park but 2 is 2. He had an .809 OPS. I know, he got hurt at some point.

This year he hit 4 homers at Billings, a good hitters' league. He has 1 at Dayton so far. He's OPSing over 1.000 across both the Pioneer and Midwest Leagues and clearly is very advanced for his age. Very.

But Soto only has 100 at bats this year, let's give this a little time before enshrining him. He's a top ten Reds prospect, but let's not plan the trip to Cooperstown quite yet.

Finally, I know that Francisco has a plate discipline problem but he is a serious power prospect with great tools. Putting him behind guys like Cumberland and Henry as an offensive prospect is, well, highly debatable.

Normally you don't see many homeruns hit in the GCL. Tough ballparks, the games are played in 95-100 degree heat and most of the players are just out of high school. His OPS in the GCL was only roughly 20 points lower than Jay Bruce's. Judging a player on how much power he hits for in the GCL is a bad way to judge a player.

LoganBuck
07-17-2008, 01:50 PM
My list

1. Alonso
2. Soto
3. Frazier

Gap
4. Valaika
5. Francisco
6. Dorn

Gap
7. Stubbs I like his OBP
8. Henry

Benihana
07-17-2008, 02:13 PM
1. Yonder Alonso - he hasn't signed yet but I'm confident he will sign and when he does he'll rank as the biggest impact bat in the Reds minor league system IMO. He's got 30 homerun power and a great eye at the plate which will allow him to post high on base percentages throughout his career. I look for him to reach the majors sometime in late 2009.

2. Neftali Soto - this may come as a surprise to some but I love the potential in Soto's bat. I am a huge Todd Frazier fan but I think Soto has more potential. He's currently hitting .392/.425/.722 - 1.146 OPS between Billings and Dayton and the kid is only 19-years old. He's got power to all fields and doesn't strikeout a lot. His long wiry frame should allow him to develop huge power. IMO he's the best RH in the Reds system since Austin Kearns.

3. Todd Frazier - A couple months ago Frazier would have ranked #1 on this list after Jay Bruce graduated to the majors but with the drafting of Yonder Alonso and emergence of Neftali Soto he's now third on the list. I like his bat a lot. His solid power and good eye at the plate reminds me of Kevin Youkilis. He looks like he'll be a solid hitter for average and hit 25 homeruns while drawing plenty of walks. He could end up at 3B, 1B, or LF, it doesn't matter, his bat should play anywhere.

4. Chris Valaika - Valaika reminds me so much of Michael Young from the Rangers. Similar size, both are average shortstops, and they even went to the same college and their minor league stats are very similar. Valaika has decent power and hits for average and could be ready for the majors sometime in 2009.

5. Sean Henry - Henry is a smallish (5'10" 180) 22-year old outfielder the Reds acquired from the Mets last August for Jeff Conine. He's currently hitting .320/.394/.498 - .892 OPS with AA Chattanooga. He may never be a star but he seems to be putting it together and could develop into a fine 4th outfielder for the Reds within the next couple years, and Reds fans know we could use solid bench players.

6. Shaun Cumberland - another guy who was acquired last year as a throw in in the Jorge Cantu deal. He'll soon turn 24 and is currently hitting .291/.375/.449 - .825 OPS between Chattanooga and Louisville. Like Henry, he may never develop into a star but he could be a very good backup outfielder or even a starter. He's got a solid eye at the plate and can play all three outfield positions.

7. Drew Stubbs - I love the defense Drew Stubbs provides but this is all about the bat. I like his ability to draw a walk and steal bases but his lack of power so far is what has him so low. If he can start showing more power in Chattanooga then he'll get bumped up a few spots on this list at the end of the season.

8. Juan Duran - this is based on ability alone as Duran only has some 40 atbats or so in the Dominican Summer League. He's got the potential to jump to the top of this list in a couple of seasons with all the talent he's got. His unbelievable raw power and ability to draw a walk right now is what forced me to put him in the top ten.

9. Danny Dorn - Dorn has platoon player written all over him as he crushes right handed pitchers but struggles mightily against lefties. He's currently hitting .286/.369/.557 against RHP in AA Chattanooga. He's another guy who could reach the majors sometime in 2009 and provide the Reds with a solid bat off the bench.

10. Brandon Waring - I love the huge power Waring brings to the table but his high strikeout totals in Single-A are concerning. He's got some of the best power in the minors along with the ability to take a walk but he'll need to cut down on the strikeouts or else he'll be exposed at higher levels.

Just missing the cut: Devin Mesoraco, Alex Buchholz, Alexis Oliveras, Justin Turner, Juan Francisco, and Chris Dickerson.

Not a bad list. IMO there is a HUGE dropoff after Valaika. You're basically looking at major league starters (and possibly even All-Stars) on one side and major league fringe guys on the other.

Hopefully one day Stubbs and Duran can close that gap, but Stubbs is running out of time (he needs to have a great year in AA) and with Duran, there is so much time that it is hard to evaluate him at this point. Dorn could close the gap if he ever learned how to hit lefties, but that looks doubtful at this point. Henry and Cumberland look to be no more than backups at the major league level. Waring and Francisco need to refine their approach at the plate before their major league projections can be considered.

OnBaseMachine
07-17-2008, 02:44 PM
I'm thrilled to have guys like Sean Henry and Shaun Cumberland in the organization. Those guys are looking like major league caliber fringe starters/good fourth outfielders and good teams need players like that. Imagine actually having solid backups to come off the bench as opposed to guys like Norris Hopper and Corey Patterson. That is very important IMO. How many times this year have the Reds had runners on and in need of a pinch hitter only to see Patterson or Hopper fail at the plate? I look forward to soon having a good bench again like the 1999 Reds did.

bucksfan2
07-17-2008, 03:08 PM
I'm thrilled to have guys like Sean Henry and Shaun Cumberland in the organization. Those guys are looking like major league caliber fringe starters/good fourth outfielders and good teams need players like that. Imagine actually having solid backups to come off the bench as opposed to guys like Norris Hopper and Corey Patterson. That is very important IMO. How many times this year have the Reds had runners on and in need of a pinch hitter only to see Patterson or Hopper fail at the plate? I look forward to soon having a good bench again like the 1999 Reds did.

Wasn't Patterson considered a star in the minor leagues? Depth is nice but you really don't know what the depth will look like until it gets to the major league level.

dougdirt
07-17-2008, 03:17 PM
Wasn't Patterson considered a star in the minor leagues? Depth is nice but you really don't know what the depth will look like until it gets to the major league level.

Patterson was always a toolsy guy, but he never got to the point of understanding the strikezone and he was extremely rushed to the majors and never recovered.

mace
07-18-2008, 05:53 PM
Glad to see Francisco represented well on some of these lists. I know he has OBP and (presumably) discipline issues, but the guy just turned 21 and he drives in runs. With his power, he appears to be a No. 5-type hitter, and in that spot I'm not too concerned about walks. I'd rather have somebody who brings the runners in, and Francisco seems to possess a knack for that. Does anybody know anything about his defense at 3B?

Jones1
07-18-2008, 06:26 PM
No Ryan Hanigan? I think you're underestimating what hes going to bring to the Reds once called up. Unless the Reds trade for a catcher which I think is stupid. When Hanigan gets his ab's we'll be taking about our catcher for the next few years. The guy is a gamer that gets hits and gets on base. In Sept it'll be time to see what he's got.

JaxRed
07-18-2008, 08:54 PM
He got called up last September. I think Hanigan should be getting some time as backup over Bako, who's carriage turned into a pumpkin on May 1st. He's below .200 since May 1.

But I think to dream he'll hit over .275 with zero power is dreaming.

krm1580
07-18-2008, 09:53 PM
Wasn't Patterson considered a star in the minor leagues? Depth is nice but you really don't know what the depth will look like until it gets to the major league level.

Its funny I was cleaning out some closets this past weekend and came across my 2001 Baseball America Prospect handbook and Corey Patterson was listed as the #1 overall prospect in the minors. The #2 guy was somebody named Josh Hamilton.

camisadelgolf
07-19-2008, 03:24 AM
Glad to see Francisco represented well on some of these lists. I know he has OBP and (presumably) discipline issues, but the guy just turned 21 and he drives in runs. With his power, he appears to be a No. 5-type hitter, and in that spot I'm not too concerned about walks. I'd rather have somebody who brings the runners in, and Francisco seems to possess a knack for that. Does anybody know anything about his defense at 3B?

The reports on his defense are that he's raw but has a rocket for an arm.

Mario-Rijo
07-20-2008, 03:51 AM
Good list OBM and as you know I am with you on Soto the kid is a stud. However I am going to switch my list up a bit, one that would normally look alot like yours but recently I have started to re-examine a few things and it's changed my perspective just a hair. I am basing my list on a combination of how big an impact I think the guy will have at the major league level and th e likelihood they make it. This list is always subject to change assuming I see something in their games that leads me to believe they will accel or take a step back.

I also wanna add a little bit of a major league comp so to speak. What I mean is a player that has a game similiar to each prospect, or really simply a player that each prospects game reminds me of at 1st glance. I would like to hear some takes on this issue from everyone.

1.) Yonder Alonso - I worry about his ability to hit the yacker a bit but right now that's a tad premature as I only saw a limited sample of him. I have had some problems ranking him here recently due to him not having hit a pro pitch yet and the fact that he is still unsigned. But his potential IMO is slightly higher than any of the other hitters in the system sans maybe Soto but that's too soon to argue.

Comp - Andres Galaragga-Esque (but with a more BB driven OBP)

2.) Neftali Soto - It's too soon to go on and on about him but I love his potential as a dynamic middle of the order bat. I could have put someone else ahead of him based on them being closer to the bigs but I do think he eventually makes it and his overall offensive game IMO makes him a potential star.

Comp - Alex Rios-Esque (maybe better offensively)

3.) Chris Valaika - Here's where it get's a little different. Too me it's easily an argument of Valaika vs. Frazier. Too me it's simple and I can break it down further but I'll just put it like this, Frazier is looking like a #5 or 6 hitter and Valaika a #2 hitter. Frazier's upside I think is as a #4 and Valaika a #3 and I currently feel like Val is a better bet to reach his upside. I still love Frazier but Valaika just continues to hit for average and enough power while continuing to improve his plate discipline.

Comp - Jeff Keppinger-Esque (A better and more athletic version)

4.) Todd Frazier - Frazier could end up being as impactful as any or even moreso but my gut right now is just saying that Valaika edges him albeit slightly.

Comp - Michael Cuddyer-Esque (A slightly better Cuddyer)

5.) Adam Rosales - A little old but he hits with enough avg and pop, also has solid plate discipline. Not spectacular at the next level but should be a solid all-around bat.

Comp - Aaron Boone

6.) Sean Henry - See OBM's post on him and the scouting report on him mentions his speed which adds a dimension potentially. Add to that fact that he is playing as well as any player at that level and he is the youngest of the group (beats Valaika by 4 days). If he continues to work on his plate discipline I think he's a very solid sleeper for an average starting CF all around.

Comp - Ryan Freel-Esque (hopefully a better fundamental version)

7.) Shaun Cumberland - A very competent solid 4th OF type IMO who's offense is competent enough all-around to not kill ya when he has to start.

Comp - Chris Denorfia-Esque

8.) Danny Dorn - If not for the likelihood of him ending up a platoon player he would be #5 or for sure. So if he get's that part of it together he could be very valuable down the road.

Comp - Sean Casey (with less avg but slightly more pop)

9.) Drew Stubbs - We all know his story (Just for you GG) however I am convinced that he has probably gotten away from choking up like he did when he was more successful. If anyone can confirm that he is/isn't I would highly appreciate it. If he isn't then it explains alot to me, and if so he would have to go back to it to climb this list. If he doesn't then he will continue to struggle as he goes and will probably fall of this list a bit as we go forward.

Comp - Mike Cameron (with less pop but better discipline)

10.) Alex Bucholz - This might be really soon but I like what I have seen so far. Seems to be a guy that will have a good all around offensive game enough to start. But this is more of an indictment on the remaining guys than Bucholz's potential.

Comp - Pre-(alledged) PED Bret Boone?

Mario-Rijo
07-20-2008, 04:28 AM
JMO But others I could have included but didn't have major flaws and any major flaw makes it far less likely that they even make it and/or make any meaningful impact.

Heisey - Should make a solid eventual 4th/5th OF type who has enough tools to not be a liability. I would probably make him 11th right now.

Turner/Castro/Hanigan - Very little pop which equals to a nice solid backup 2B/SS/C respectively. But because he does maximize his other tools Turner should be just that, a fringy starter/good backup who hits low in the lineup.

Waring/Francisco - Major Holes in swing/Discipline, these guys power potential is great but meaningless at this point if they cannot make considerable more contact. The good news for Francisco is that he is a year younger and a level higher than Waring so he still has a shot, Waring I doubt.

Dickerson/Gutierrez - Bat speed?? Why else do guys with that kind of production not get a shot unless they are most likely AAAA types?

Janish might also fall into the AAAA type if he cannot do anything with that swing. I will put him here between AAAA and Incomplete. I don't ever expect him to be anything more than an avg offensive player but that could work if the rest of the team was good offensively. However he would have to do a lot to just be avg even at SS, but I'm not completely ready to give up on him ever being passable.

Mesoraco/Cozart/Reed - Incomplete

Oliveras/Brown/Sappelt/Stovall/Duran - Young up and comers

Kuo, Conner, Lutz and Contreras may never make it but I kinda like them so I'll consider them super sleepers.

Anyone not mentioned IMO has little to no chance to make it past AA, sans some major developmental key.

mth123
07-20-2008, 06:20 AM
Waring/Francisco - Major Holes in swing/Discipline, these guys power potential is great but meaningless at this point if they cannot make considerable more contact. The good news for Francisco is that he is a year younger and a level higher than Waring so he still has a shot, Waring I doubt.


Not sure why these guys always seem joined at the hip.

Francisco is a level higher, but 385 PA, 11 Walks, .293 OBP.

Waring 314 PA, 29 Walks, .353 OBP.

Waring seems like a reasonable bat if he can maintain that power. FRancisco is the one who looks like he chases too much. FRancisco is younger but has been in the system a year longer so he's a step ahead and is kind of blocking Waring's progression. IMO, Waring is a better long term bet and Francisco would be one of my primary trade pieces,

dougdirt
07-20-2008, 12:35 PM
Not sure why these guys always seem joined at the hip.

Francisco is a level higher, but 385 PA, 11 Walks, .293 OBP.

Waring 314 PA, 29 Walks, .353 OBP.

Waring seems like a reasonable bat if he can maintain that power. FRancisco is the one who looks like he chases too much. FRancisco is younger but has been in the system a year longer so he's a step ahead and is kind of blocking Waring's progression. IMO, Waring is a better long term bet and Francisco would be one of my primary trade pieces,

Well, I think its because the odds that Waring improves his strikeout rate enough to be close to successful enough in the majors is very slim.

Francisco has a similar issue where the odds that he improves his plate discipline enough to be successful in the majors is also very slim.

Kc61
07-20-2008, 02:07 PM
Well, I think its because the odds that Waring improves his strikeout rate enough to be close to successful enough in the majors is very slim.

Francisco has a similar issue where the odds that he improves his plate discipline enough to be successful in the majors is also very slim.


Francisco just turned 21. Over the next three years he will show his prodigious power. If he can improve his OBP a bit he will definitely be a major leaguer.

His numbers are down a bit this year, but he's playing in the tough FSL at Sarasota. This was deemed a key point in evaluating Stubbs but somehow doesn't show up in the evaluations of Francisco.

If Francisco hits the long ball as he's capable, the walks will come.

dougdirt
07-20-2008, 02:12 PM
Francisco just turned 21. Over the next three years he will show his prodigious power. If he can improve his OBP a bit he will definitely be a major leaguer.

His numbers are down a bit this year, but he's playing in the tough FSL at Sarasota. This was deemed a key point in evaluating Stubbs but somehow doesn't show up in the evaluations of Francisco.

If Francisco hits the long ball as he's capable, the walks will come.

I know all about Francisco.... but he doesn't need to improve his OBP a bit, he needs to double his walk rate just to get close to 'needs imrovement' area of 7.5%. Juan can hit, there aren't many people doubting that one. However he has some serious issues with getting on base via anything other than a hit and until he dramatically improves (and his walk rate has actually dropped off from last year), there is going to be some major problems as he continues to move up.

The level someone is at (outside of the DSL and VSL) doesn't really have much to do with the walk rate of a batter. So the Stubbs thing isn't really comparable.

I don't think Francisco's power will turn into walks. He led the MWL last year in HR and everyone knew it.... yet he walked once every 20 times he stepped to the plate. Guys weren't that afraid of him and weren't pitching around him because they know he will swing at nearly everything.

Betterread
07-20-2008, 07:24 PM
1. Yonder Alonso
2. Todd Frazier (he and Valaika are close, but he has a little more power and better plate discipline)
3. Chris Valaika
4. Neftali Soto (he is quickly displaying his talent, and is moving to the top of the Reds prospect list)
5. Drew Stubbs
6. Juan Francisco (he is rated by me for his current power and power potential, but he has to improve his patience. He has to learn how to get on base via the BB)
7. Danny Dorn
8. Justin Turner (This guy will be a major league player - I have no doubt)

There are only 8 - some other prospects show "usefullness" offensively, but have a lot to work on.

krm1580
07-21-2008, 12:44 PM
Not sure why these guys always seem joined at the hip.

Francisco is a level higher, but 385 PA, 11 Walks, .293 OBP.

Waring 314 PA, 29 Walks, .353 OBP.

Waring seems like a reasonable bat if he can maintain that power. FRancisco is the one who looks like he chases too much. FRancisco is younger but has been in the system a year longer so he's a step ahead and is kind of blocking Waring's progression. IMO, Waring is a better long term bet and Francisco would be one of my primary trade pieces,



Now looking at the numbers

Player K rate BB rate
Waring 36.2% 9%
Francisco 23.1% 3%

The fact that Waring is walking at an OK rate indicates he is laying off the really bad pitches but is still striking out at an alarming rate. This would indicate to me he has a either a really long swing or a slow bat or both.

Franciso on the other hand appears to be swinging at everything but is still making contact at a better rate than Waring.

So with that being said I believe Francisco can become a more effective player by controlling the strike zone better. Being that strike zone control is a skill that improves as players get older I think there is a chance he can get better. Waring seems to be aflicted with stike zone control and a slow bat/long swing which I think is much more to fix.

Now throw in that Franciso is 1.5 years younger and a level higher I think its a Big edge for Francisco. Honestly though I really doubt either player will make much of an impact at the major league level.

mth123
07-21-2008, 08:01 PM
Now looking at the numbers

Player K rate BB rate
Waring 36.2% 9%
Francisco 23.1% 3%

The fact that Waring is walking at an OK rate indicates he is laying off the really bad pitches but is still striking out at an alarming rate. This would indicate to me he has a either a really long swing or a slow bat or both.

Franciso on the other hand appears to be swinging at everything but is still making contact at a better rate than Waring.

So with that being said I believe Francisco can become a more effective player by controlling the strike zone better. Being that strike zone control is a skill that improves as players get older I think there is a chance he can get better. Waring seems to be aflicted with stike zone control and a slow bat/long swing which I think is much more to fix.

Now throw in that Franciso is 1.5 years younger and a level higher I think its a Big edge for Francisco. Honestly though I really doubt either player will make much of an impact at the major league level.


Good post and I agree with much of that. Part of the equation for me is that Francisco is younger, has a A- HR title under his belt and was in the Baseball America top 10 list prior to the season. Those credentials make me think he would be a tasty piece in a prospect package. Looking at the strengths and warts of each player, I think there is a decent chance that Waring could just as easily advance past Francisco as the other way around. So, lets deal the one that may help bring back the player we want to target while rolling the dice with the other (knowing all along young major leaguers EdE and Votto are in place and that Frazier, Soto, Alonso and maybe Valaika are ahead of both these guys as future corner infielders).

kpresidente
07-22-2008, 12:00 PM
What about Yorman Rodgriguez? If Duran is on the list, shouldn't he be as well?

UGADaddy
07-22-2008, 12:03 PM
yorman hasnt signed yet

kpresidente
07-22-2008, 12:04 PM
yorman hasnt signed yet

Gotcha. If he does, where does he rank?

UGADaddy
07-22-2008, 12:37 PM
Gotcha. If he does, where does he rank?

i'm not sure because he will be 16 in august, but i think he has been compared to carlos beltran... that would be nice!;)

Screwball
07-22-2008, 07:09 PM
i'm not sure because he will be 16 in august, but i think he has been compared to carlos beltran... that would be nice!;)

I think it was actually Miguel Cabrera.

UGADaddy
07-22-2008, 08:28 PM
I think it was actually Miguel Cabrera.

even better

757690
07-23-2008, 01:37 AM
Just curiously, when was the last time the Reds had this many good solid hitting prospects in the minors? 1999? Dunn and Kearns 1984? Davis, Larkin, Daniels. Just curious.

princeton
07-23-2008, 08:16 AM
Just curiously, when was the last time the Reds had this many good solid hitting prospects in the minors? 1999? Dunn and Kearns 1984? Davis, Larkin, Daniels. Just curious.

hitting prospects were better just last year (Bruce and Votto)

unless they sign Alonso, this group looks like it might be a bunch of 'tweeners-- several prospects with bat enough for positions that each can't play.

BuckeyeRedleg
07-29-2008, 11:49 AM
My top 20:

1. Yonder Alonso
2. Todd Frazier
3. Neftali Soto
4. Chris Valaika

5. Drew Stubbs
6. Devin Mesoraco
7. Sean Henry
8. Juan Francisco
9. Shaun Cumberland

10. Brandon Waring
11. Zach Cozart
12. Chris Dickerson
13. Danny Dorn
14. Alex Buchholz
15. Justin Reed
16. Chris Heisey
17. Justin Turner
18. Tony Brown
19. Alexis Oliveras
20. Adam Rosales

Keep an eye on: Paul Janish, Ryan Hanigan (AAA), Eric Eymann, Tonys Gutierrez (AA), Logan Parker (Hi-A), Byron Wiley, Dave Sappelt, Jordan Wideman, Kyle Day, Michael Konstanty, Tyler Stovall (Rookie-Pioneer, Billings), and Efrain Rodriguez (Rookie-GCL).

mace
07-29-2008, 12:20 PM
That's a nice list. I might flop Stubbs and Francisco (as HITTERS, if not as prospects) and elevate Dorn and Buchholz. Oliveras is pretty intriguing. And I think I'd find a spot for Sappelt. I like him a lot. I think.

BuckeyeRedleg
07-29-2008, 12:42 PM
That's a nice list. I might flop Stubbs and Francisco (as HITTERS, if not as prospects) and elevate Dorn and Buchholz. Oliveras is pretty intriguing. And I think I'd find a spot for Sappelt. I like him a lot. I think.

Thanks. My list is more of a prospect list. If I went strictly by how they were hitting, I'd have Dorn way up there.

Also, keep an eye on Adam Rosales. He's mashing the ball in AAA right now. He started out very slowly, but has an OPS of .885 in June and July (over 220 plate appearances) after going .904 between Hi-A and AA last year. He should probably replace Andy Phillips and Chris Dickerson should obviously replace Patterson on the big club.

http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?n=Adam%20Rosales&pos=SS&sid=t416&t=p_pbp&pid=489267

I don't understand what's so tough about making these moves.