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CaiGuy
07-18-2008, 09:59 AM
Ryan Howard has a line of .234/.324/.508 with 28 home runs and 129 k's.

Adam Dunn has a line of .228/.381/.544 with 27 home runs and 100 k's.

Howard has 84 RBI's. (first in the NL)

Dunn has 60 RBI's.

What is the moral of the story?
(Hint: Howard plays for the Phillies and Dunn plays for the Reds)

BuckeyeRedleg
07-18-2008, 10:07 AM
RC:

#33 Dunn 63.5
#42 Howard 60.0

RC/27:

#20 Dunn 7.26
#75 Howard 5.61

VORP:
#44 Dunn 25.0
#97 Howard 14.9

Highlifeman21
07-18-2008, 10:08 AM
Ryan Howard is leading the universe in strikeouts.

Adam Dunn, last time I checked, is leading the universe in walks.

Cyclone792
07-18-2008, 10:11 AM
Ryan Howard has a line of .234/.324/.508 with 28 home runs and 129 k's.

Adam Dunn has a line of .228/.381/.544 with 27 home runs and 100 k's.

Howard has 84 RBI's. (first in the NL)

Dunn has 60 RBI's.

What is the moral of the story?
(Hint: Howard plays for the Phillies and Dunn plays for the Reds)

Ryan Howard's teammates are better than Dunn's teammates at getting on base and providing baserunners for Howard to drive in. Put Howard on the Reds batting in Dunn's spot, and he doesn't have anywhere near 84 RBI. Put Dunn on the Phillies batting Howard's spot, and he's far beyond 60 RBI.

A prime example of the "teammate dependent" factor in RBI, and why I could give a rats tail about RBI.

BuckeyeRedleg
07-18-2008, 10:15 AM
To Howard's credit, he has produced pretty well with his opportunities.

.288/.386/.588 (.974) with runners on

and

.328/.441/.629 (1.070) with runners in scoring position

CaiGuy
07-18-2008, 10:40 AM
Ryan Howard's teammates are better than Dunn's teammates at getting on base and providing baserunners for Howard to drive in. Put Howard on the Reds batting in Dunn's spot, and he doesn't have anywhere near 84 RBI. Put Dunn on the Phillies batting Howard's spot, and he's far beyond 60 RBI.

A prime example of the "teammate dependent" factor in RBI, and why I could give a rats tail about RBI.

Bingo, that is exactly my point...

BCubb2003
07-18-2008, 10:46 AM
Here's a list of RBI%

http://baseballcrank.com/archives2/2008/07/baseball_stat_o.php

princeton
07-18-2008, 10:49 AM
Ryan Howard's teammates are better than Dunn's teammates at getting on base and providing baserunners for Howard to drive in.



To Howard's credit, he has produced pretty well with his opportunities.

.288/.386/.588 (.974) with runners on

and

.328/.441/.629 (1.070) with runners in scoring position

you're both right.

Dunn has delivered RISP at a lesser rate (32 percent vs. Howard's 38 percent), but Howard has also had 42 more RISP to deliver than Dunn has.

If Dunn delivered at the same rate, but had the same number of guys to deliver as Howard, then he'd have 12 more RBI-- still quite a bit short of Howard.

(but there is improvement. over his career, Adam delivers runners at an even lower rate than he's shown this season...)

CaiGuy
07-18-2008, 10:50 AM
Also, many blame Dunn's strikeouts for his "inability" to drive in runs, yet the only man who strikes out more than him leads the league in RBIs.

princeton
07-18-2008, 10:56 AM
Here's a list of RBI%

that's almost a great stat. gotta go pretty far down to find the first Red (Adam Dunn, BTW)

EdE looks terrible.

Maybe THAT'S what's wrong with the offense, eh? few opportunities, sure, but also the inability to capitalize on what few opportunities there be.

too bad we got rid of that Hamilton guy. Cody Ross rocks, too.

nate
07-18-2008, 11:00 AM
Here's a list of RBI%

http://baseballcrank.com/archives2/2008/07/baseball_stat_o.php

That is really freaking interesting! Thanks!

puca
07-18-2008, 12:02 PM
that's almost a great stat. gotta go pretty far down to find the first Red (Adam Dunn, BTW)

EdE looks terrible.

Maybe THAT'S what's wrong with the offense, eh? few opportunities, sure, but also the inability to capitalize on what few opportunities there be.

too bad we got rid of that Hamilton guy. Cody Ross rocks, too.


Actually it is a fairly worthless if you ask me.

Batting with runners on 2nd and 3rd with no out is a much different opportunity than batting with man on 2nd and 2 out, yet they are treated the same here.

I have no doubt that the Reds are collectively and individually poor at driving in runners, but this chart really says nothing.

BCubb2003
07-18-2008, 12:26 PM
Batting with runners on 2nd and 3rd with no out is a much different opportunity than batting with man on 2nd and 2 out, yet they are treated the same here.



I suppose it's a start. It's an attempt to figure out how good you are at driving in what's in front of you, but I bet there are several issues with it as you look deeper. I wonder if it could be refined.

princeton
07-18-2008, 12:36 PM
Actually it is a fairly worthless if you ask me.

Batting with runners on 2nd and 3rd with no out is a much different opportunity than batting with man on 2nd and 2 out, yet they are treated the same here.

I have no doubt that the Reds are collectively and individually poor at driving in runners, but this chart really says nothing.

I think that you're thinking too hard. do you really think that a guy who's good at both of those situations (the collective percentage) is not also good at both individually?

could be true, but my guess is that there's a very strong correlation.

there are problems with the stat but that's not one that bugs me.

the data that I've recently been posting for Dunn vs. Lee, Hamilton, Howard and Pujols are better, because I've been tallying the actual number of runners and doubling the weight of the atbats with two men in scoring position. I've not subtracted HRs because I was lazy but also because why penalize a HR?

but such stats are surely important-- my guess is that it's close to what managers, GMs and scouts file away in their head as they watch numerous atbats, but here we have an actual percentage and not an "impression". It probably suggests why Adam Dunn has very little trade value, and suggests that EdE probably doesn't as well. And if EdE DOES have trade value, it could be worth exploiting because the team needs to raise this rate, IMO

except for a decent jump this season, Dunn's percentage has remained fairly consistent throughout his career-- I'm not sure if that's true for multiple batters.

westofyou
07-18-2008, 12:39 PM
I think that you're thinking too hard. do you really think that a guy who's good at both of those situations (the collective percentage) is not also good at both individually?


I don't, but I do think the pitcher approaches both situations differently and thats' a variable that also depends on what inning it is or what the current score is.

RedsManRick
07-18-2008, 12:49 PM
From the RBI Opportunities report from BP (min 200 PA, N=255):



# NAME PA PA_ROB R1 R2 R3 R1_BI R2_BI R3_BI ROB OBI R1BI% R2BI% R3BI% OBI%
21. Ryan Howard 417 210 127 111 58 10 29 17 296 56 7.9% 26.1% 29.3% 18.9%
93. Adam Dunn 373 144 92 78 46 10 9 14 216 33 10.9% 11.5% 30.4% 15.3%

- Ryan Howard has 296 runners on base and driven in 56 of them (18.9%)
- Adam Dunn has had 216 runners on base and driven in 33 of them (15.3%)

Howard has done a much better job than Dunn at converting runners on second base, which I find odd considering their comparable batting averages. I'm guessing it has something to do with who has happened be on base for Howard's HR.

puca
07-18-2008, 01:13 PM
I think that you're thinking too hard. do you really think that a guy who's good at both of those situations (the collective percentage) is not also good at both individually?

could be true, but my guess is that there's a very strong correlation.

there are problems with the stat but that's not one that bugs me.

the data that I've recently been posting for Dunn vs. Lee, Hamilton, Howard and Pujols are better, because I've been tallying the actual number of runners and doubling the weight of the atbats with two men in scoring position. I've not subtracted HRs because I was lazy but also because why penalize a HR?

but such stats are surely important-- my guess is that it's close to what managers, GMs and scouts file away in their head as they watch numerous atbats, but here we have an actual percentage and not an "impression". It probably suggests why Adam Dunn has very little trade value, and suggests that EdE probably doesn't as well. And if EdE DOES have trade value, it could be worth exploiting because the team needs to raise this rate, IMO

except for a decent jump this season, Dunn's percentage has remained fairly consistent throughout his career-- I'm not sure if that's true for multiple batters.


But this chart assumes that all RBI opportunities are equivalent. They are not, and that is why I say this chart is fairly meaningless. Say player A and B perform exactly the same with runners in scoring postion but player A always has runners at 2nd and 3rd in those situations while player B only has a runner on 2nd. Player A's RBI percentage will be much higher than player B's.

All you really have to do is look at the list. Chase Utley is not in the top 100? Really.

membengal
07-18-2008, 01:20 PM
It also raises the question about the quality of the runners on for each hitter. Utley, Rollins and Victorino all have speed to burn and are known as smart baserunners. Basehits or medium fly balls and you can bet those guys maximize the chances for Howard to drive in a run.

For the Reds, Jr. hits in front of Dunn. Whatever else Jr. is, he's not fast at this point. So, even when the runners are on in front of Dunn, not sure that it is still an apples to apples comparison, Phils to Reds.

princeton
07-18-2008, 01:22 PM
right, you need to double the weight of the atbats with two runners on, but that's pretty easy. Interestingly, over their careers Dunn and Lee had identical percentage of atbats with two ISP vs. one ISP, and Pujols' was just a smidge lower, so you can probably fudge this away for large sample sizes.

but I agree that for a half of a season, you'll see some differences. But I doubt that it'll change rankings too much.

KronoRed
07-18-2008, 01:31 PM
Also, many blame Dunn's strikeouts for his "inability" to drive in runs, yet the only man who strikes out more than him leads the league in RBIs.

I'm sure Phillies fans think if Howard cut the K's he'd win the triple crown or someting like that :D

princeton
07-18-2008, 02:24 PM
All you really have to do is look at the list. Chase Utley is not in the top 100? Really.

I'm not sure why it's a surprise. I've got him at 31 percent for the current season, down from his 34 percent career percentage.

Dunn's at 35 percent for the season, up from only 27 percent for his career. mediocre? ha, the Donkey has delivered.

GAC
07-18-2008, 03:17 PM
Also, many blame Dunn's strikeouts for his "inability" to drive in runs, yet the only man who strikes out more than him leads the league in RBIs.

That is an excellent point.

buckeyenut
07-18-2008, 10:30 PM
Interesting article about Howard. Talks about him as the biggest two outcome player in baseball (HR or K) and that the Phillies should move him now.

http://www.yardbarker.com/tools/ybn_widget_click_through/1284

BCubb2003
07-18-2008, 10:38 PM
Interesting article about Howard. Talks about him as the biggest two outcome player in baseball (HR or K) and that the Phillies should move him now.

http://www.yardbarker.com/tools/ybn_widget_click_through/1284

Trade Dunn for Howard? Heh.

Jpup
07-19-2008, 02:42 AM
Is there any one person, on this board, that actually thinks it would be a good idea for Philly to trade Ryan Howard?

dougdirt
07-19-2008, 02:45 AM
Is there any one person, on this board, that actually thinks it would be a good idea for Philly to trade Ryan Howard?

Depends on what the return is. No one is untouchable. If the Yankees call and offer Chamberlain and Arod for him, you bet its a great idea to trade him. All depends on the return.

Jpup
07-19-2008, 03:51 AM
Depends on what the return is. No one is untouchable. If the Yankees call and offer Chamberlain and Arod for him, you bet its a great idea to trade him. All depends on the return.

yeah, but no way you are getting fair value for Howard. I doubt people would even ask.

dougdirt
07-19-2008, 04:08 AM
yeah, but no way you are getting fair value for Howard. I doubt people would even ask.

Well thats the point.... its not crazy to trade him, if given the right return. I went with an extreme there, but there are trades that they would entertain that aren't quite to that extreme.

KronoRed
07-19-2008, 01:24 PM
Is there any one person, on this board, that actually thinks it would be a good idea for Philly to trade Ryan Howard?

Fans of teams that play the Phillies and want him gone? :)

cincinnati chili
07-19-2008, 11:53 PM
The biggest similarity between these two players is that large chunks of their fan bases are inexplicably turning on them. Both are even money 500 home run guys, and therefore are even money to make the hall of fame.