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Kc61
07-19-2008, 05:16 PM
The Indians had a great free agent pitcher, Sabathia. They figured out they couldn't sign him. They figured out they weren't winning this year. So they traded him for value.

The Reds have to make a decision on Adam Dunn. They can't just let things play out.

Reds either have to decide to sign Dunn or to trade him. As a last resort, if they can't get value in a trade, then they should hold onto him and get draft choices.

Reds can't act out of indecision. The moment of truth is here. The deadline is less than two weeks away. He's a free agent.

The Reds aren't a playoff team. No need to hold onto players to win now. This decision has importance for the team's future. They can't just sit back.

Nothing I've seen in the public press indicates that the Reds have decided what to do. Everyone knew the Indians were trading Sabathia. Nobody seems to know the Reds' plan for Dunn.

I hope they have one.

westofyou
07-19-2008, 05:34 PM
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=7820


6. Adam Dunn, Reds: The subject of more trade rumors than that Colombia bill, Dunn remains a Red just a few short months from free agency. His perceived value isn't great—J.P. Ricciardi's opinions are shared by a number of people within the game—but few players bring the bat Dunn does, and his defense has improved to the point where he's not giving back half the runs he creates. He hasn't been as productive as Bradley or Bay, but he's been more consistent at a high level, and is therefore a better bet to sustain his performance.

The Diamondbacks have a number of reasons to pursue Dunn. He's a free agent at the end of the season, so they won't have a commitment that blocks Eric Byrnes' contract. With Chris Young and Justin Upton, they have a good outfield defense, enabling them to mix in Dunn. (Given that Conor Jackson has been playing left, Dunn may well be an upgrade on their outfield defense.) They have the kind of mid-level depth in prospects that could be used to acquire a rental.

Oh, yeah, and the Diamondbacks offense has been awful, and they desperately need Dunn's bat. His low-contact approach doesn't make him the best fit, as they could use a .315/.360/.470 guy who hits doubles, but his .388 OBP from the left side would be a godsend for a team reaching base at a .323 clip, and that lists a bit to the right. Adding Dunn to this lineup would add 20 runs to the team total, re-establish the D'backs as the team to beat in the NL West, and help assure that the division winner finishes above .500.

flyer85
07-19-2008, 06:37 PM
The Reds decided a while ago what to do(not sign him). The Snakes would be a perfect fit but I think trading Dunn and not getting a lot back is a PR issue in Cincinnati and will likely keep Dunn in Cincy through the end of the season.

IslandRed
07-19-2008, 06:43 PM
Nothing I've seen in the public press indicates that the Reds have decided what to do. Everyone knew the Indians were trading Sabathia. Nobody seems to know the Reds' plan for Dunn.

Well, there's no rule that says you can't shop a guy until you tell the press you're shopping the guy. I read the rumor mills and the columns, and it seems clear enough to me they'd like to deal him. But I think you hit upon the answer yourself:


As a last resort, if they can't get value in a trade, then they should hold onto him and get draft choices.

If they've decided to let him go, then depending on who signs him, that's a late first-round plus sandwich pick or a sandwich plus a second-rounder. The team should have an idea of what kind of players it can land with those picks and that sets the baseline for an acceptable trade offer. He's still here, so in all probability, no one's come over the top with a better offer yet.

jojo
07-19-2008, 06:59 PM
It's kind of weird in a way.... Dunn has deficiencies truly being a three outcome offensive player and a lousy defender (that conservatively decreases his overall value by a win and a half). What's more, he's expensive now and he resembles guys who don't age well so given all of his value is derived from being an uber prolific bat, the notion that it wouldn't take much of a slip with the wood to make his next contract something akin to a disaster makes him risky.

That said, ding him for his defense and he's still a 3 win player considering his true skill level right now. Renting Dunn mitigates all of his warts especially if you're renting just his bat (i.e. can play him at DH). You'd think some team would at least be intrigued enough to at least call Jocketty....

I think his trade value is a victim of circumstance- some GMs have the Riccardi mentality which shrinks the market for him thus shrinking his trade value, in general there is a trend now to place more value on prospects making it tougher to deal Dunn for a reasonable return, and the market is likely to undergo a correction as GMs prefer youth over big FA spending.

nate
07-19-2008, 07:43 PM
It's kind of weird in a way.... Dunn has deficiencies truly being a three outcome offensive player and a lousy defender (that conservatively decreases his overall value by a win and a half). What's more, he's expensive now and he resembles guys who don't age well so given all of his value is derived from being an uber prolific bat, the notion that it wouldn't take much of a slip with the wood to make his next contract something akin to a disaster makes him risky.

That said, ding him for his defense and he's still a 3 win player considering his true skill level right now. Renting Dunn mitigates all of his warts especially if you're renting just his bat (i.e. can play him at DH). You'd think some team would at least be intrigued enough to at least call Jocketty....

I think his trade value is a victim of circumstance- some GMs have the Riccardi mentality which shrinks the market for him thus shrinking his trade value, in general there is a trend now to place more value on prospects making it tougher to deal Dunn for a reasonable return, and the market is likely to undergo a correction as GMs prefer youth over big FA spending.

Serious question: If he has all of these warts, why is he expensive?

flyer85
07-19-2008, 07:50 PM
Serious question: If he has all of these warts, why is he expensive?because other guys are(arbitration).

westofyou
07-19-2008, 08:09 PM
In related news former Red (a guy they decided on) Austin Kearns is batting cleanup for the Nationals tonight. His slugging percentage is lower than his OBA, and his OBA is just .314.

princeton
07-19-2008, 08:51 PM
if the Reds reach .500, Cast may tell Walt to buy.

Walt's quite the buyer.

Spring~Fields
07-19-2008, 09:09 PM
if the Reds reach .500, Cast may tell Walt to buy.

Walt's quite the buyer.

What if Cast is worried about revenues and is telling Walt to not sell the marquee names ?

KronoRed
07-19-2008, 09:53 PM
What if Cast is worried about revenues and is telling Walt to not sell the marquee names ?

Then he's as bad as Carl supposedly was.

RedlegJake
07-19-2008, 10:50 PM
What if Cast is worried about revenues and is telling Walt to not sell the marquee names ?

I don't believe that for a second. Winning trumps any marquee name. Cast knows that much.

Spring~Fields
07-19-2008, 11:02 PM
I don't believe that for a second. Winning trumps any marquee name. Cast knows that much.

Jake, you don't believe that an investor that is heavily debt financed worries about revenues?

Unassisted
07-19-2008, 11:06 PM
The Reds decided a while ago what to do(not sign him).

I agree. We shouldn't confuse lack of activity with lack of a decision.

PuffyPig
07-19-2008, 11:08 PM
Jake, you don't believe that an investor that is heavily debt financed worries about revenues?

I think his point ws that winning brings in fans, not marquee players.

MartyFan
07-19-2008, 11:45 PM
if the Reds reach .500, Cast may tell Walt to buy.

Walt's quite the buyer.

That's what I think too.

Spring~Fields
07-19-2008, 11:48 PM
I think his point ws that winning brings in fans, not marquee players.

Assuming that winning baseball games equals good winning product.

Puffy you have an informed point that I agree with, a good winning product brings in increases in consumer dollars and revenues, as well as marquee names, but when an organization isn’t known for having had a good winning product the marquee names can be important to revenues and effect the following concerns for Castellini and group.

Revenues expenses and the income statement, owners equity and the statement of cash flows and ROI for the investor group since he has a fiduciary responsibility to the limited partners and other investors. Further Castellini would concern himself with identifying, measuring, analyzing, interpreting, and communicating information for the pursuit of an organization's goals. Especially there effects as it applies to Debt/Equity Ratio.

I believe that you are right that Castellini and his main concern should be producing a good product. (As a common baseball fan)

There are ownership groups though that make money with the luxury tax and other that might not make winning a ball game the primary concern for the business investors.

RedlegJake
07-20-2008, 12:28 AM
Assuming that winning baseball games equals good winning product.

Puffy you have an informed point that I agree with, a good winning product brings in increases in consumer dollars and revenues, as well as marquee names, but when an organization isn’t known for having had a good winning product the marquee names can be important to revenues and effect the following concerns for Castellini and group.

Revenues expenses and the income statement, owners equity and the statement of cash flows and ROI for the investor group since he has a fiduciary responsibility to the limited partners and other investors. Further Castellini would concern himself with identifying, measuring, analyzing, interpreting, and communicating information for the pursuit of an organization's goals. Especially there effects as it applies to Debt/Equity Ratio.

I believe that you are right that Castellini and his main concern should be producing a good product. (As a common baseball fan)

There are ownership groups though that make money with the luxury tax and other that might not make winning a ball game the primary concern for the business investors.

I don't believe for one minute that Castellini would have invested in the Reds if his partners told him to make money through the luxury tax and methods other than a winning product. Further, the Reds payroll, while not in the top tier is no longer in the bottom group either. This is not the "slash costs" Reds of the Marge/Allen/Lindner era. Huge low term high risk investments in Latin American prospects, eating bad contracts and the money for Dunn's extension and Cordero's signing signals that the Reds are trying to win. That doesn't mean the partners are willing to go crazy losing money but they are in baseball for capital gain more than pocket capital - and the best way to boost the bottom line there is a winning product with the solid attendance, merchandising success and media revenue that results from a winner.

Finally - who are these marquee names you're worried about? Dunn? He's a PR problem either way the Reds go - half of the fans will be glad to see him leave and the other half will be upset if he does. Dunn is a three true outcomes player but a 2 true outcomes lightning rod. Love him or hate him, few are in between. The marquee names are Jay Bruce and Volquez and Cueto and Brandon Phillips, probably Joey Votto, too. I really believe Harang could be traded without much backlash if the return was decent. Arroyo, too. Junior will probably be bought out and Dunn either extended or let go for the draft picks. No matter. Whoever they trade the fans will ultimately approve if the Reds win. And no matter who they keep - if they continue losing the fans will stay away.

Spring~Fields
07-20-2008, 12:33 AM
I don't believe for one minute that Castellini would have invested in the Reds if his partners told him to make money through the luxury tax and methods other than a winning product. Further, the Reds payroll, while not in the top tier is no longer in the bottom group either. This is not the "slash costs" Reds of the Marge/Allen/Lindner era. Huge low term high risk investments in Latin American prospects, eating bad contracts and the money for Dunn's extension and Cordero's signing signals that the Reds are trying to win. That doesn't mean the partners are willing to go crazy losing money but they are in baseball for capital gain more than pocket capital - and the best way to boost the bottom line there is a winning product with the solid attendance, merchandising success and media revenue that results from a winner.

Finally - who are these marquee names you're worried about? Dunn?


I am not worried, where do you get that idea?

I have a preference for the Beane management style, he seems to have a history of very good results, don't you agree?

The best way to increase capital gains is through the increased value of the franchise. That has been occuring through intelligent management of the resources.

RedlegJake
07-20-2008, 12:40 AM
What if Cast is worried about revenues and is telling Walt to not sell the marquee names ?

That's where I got that idea. If I miscontrued I apologize. All I'm saying is that I don't think that is a concern at all. If Cast doesn't recognize that winning will do more for ROI than anything else than there is just no sense in hoping at all. My fear is he recognizes it but hasn't a clue how to get from A to B and will interfere with Jocketty who does have an idea. The next year will be telling - through the deadline, the winter meetings and FA market and into spring when we'll see how the Reds manage the roster turnover coming up.

Spring~Fields
07-20-2008, 12:44 AM
That's where I got that idea. If I miscontrued I apologize. All I'm saying is that I don't think that is a concern at all. If Cast doesn't recognize that winning will do more for ROI than anything else than there is just no sense in hoping at all. My fear is he recognizes it but hasn't a clue how to get from A to B and will interfere with Jocketty who does have an idea. The next year will be telling - through the deadline, the winter meetings and FA market and into spring when we'll see how the Reds manage the roster turnover coming up.

I can understand those concerns and your fear.

Spring~Fields
07-20-2008, 06:30 AM
I Further, the Reds payroll, while not in the top tier is no longer in the bottom group either. This is not the "slash costs" Reds of the Marge/Allen/Lindner era. Huge low term high risk investments in Latin American prospects, eating bad contracts and the money for Dunn's extension and Cordero's signing signals that the Reds are trying to win.

http://content.usatoday.com/sports/baseball/salaries/default.aspx

It isn’t a 20-30% increase for Castellini,
Castellini decreased it by 1.6 %, then increased it by 11.6 % then again by 7 %,
it was increased by Lindner 32%, 21%, and 32%

Castellini, Reik, Lindner, and Strike are still partners along with the Williams and et el.
Here is what the owners and investors have done annually.

Because the numbers are from USA Today this is APPROXIMATELY, not actual’s


Last six years amount, increases, decreases
2008 $ 74,117,695 7 % increase Castellini
+ 5,212,715 increase
2007 $ 68,904,980 11.6 % increase Castellini
+7,995,461 increase
2006 $ 60,909,519 -1.6 % decrease Castellini
- 983,064 decrease
2005 $ 61,892,583 32 % increase Lindner
+15,277,333 increase
2004 $ 46,615,250 21 % decrease Lindner
-12,720,417 decrease
2003 $ 59,355,667 32 % increase Lindner
+ 14,305,277
2002 $ 45,050,390

GAC
07-20-2008, 06:37 AM
Jocketty is definitely in a position where he going to have to be doing some jockeying... or should I say "jockettying" ;)

But if they let Adam Dunn walk then basically both he and Cast have been lying to us all season then when they said they wanted him back, and how hard it would be to replace a guy like Dunn.

Yep... he's got some jockettying to do. ;)

Billy Beane has been entered into the discussion.

#1 - Walt Jocketty, as impressive as his resume may be when with the Cards, is not Billy Beane. He has never operated (ran an organization) in the style (approach) of Beane.

Beane oversees and runs the farm system. Jocketty, while obviously no dummy, has acknowledged that that "area" (farm system) is not his forte, and that he has relied (delegated) that task to others.

#2 - while our farm system has shown improvement, it still no where possesses the talent that the As does, where they can afford to let a Giambi-type walk because they have a replacement in the system.

Beane also uses those players (like he did with Haren) to re-load, while keeping the payroll down.

Now if Jocketty wants to start taking that approach - an approach he's not done in the past while with the Cards - and use a player like Dunn (and possibly some others) then fine.

It's all about the end result.

Now edabbs44 has alluded to this in the past, concerning approach taken, and I tend to agree with him in a sense.

What approach is this FO going to take since they are now, in the '08 season, and with the opportunity to clear out a lot of money (contracts), as well as fodder, going to take?

They are not letting on to the fans, as they talk behind those "closed doors" what it will be. And I'm not saying they necessarily have to at this stage. No FO wants to show their hands when a trading deadline is approaching.

Is it going to be what I'll refer to as the Billy Beane approach (and we all know what that involves)? And more importantly - does this FO have the "smarts" (capabilities) to do such?

OR

Will it be the Jocketty (Cards) model?

Here is an interesting article on Jocketty's. Then you all tell me what "model" this FO is going to take ;) ....

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2008/04/brian-gunn-on-w.html

WALT JOCKETTY
By Brian Gunn

New Reds GM Walt Jocketty was a big-game hunter with the Cardinals. He generally looked elsewhere for talent, and he landed some of the biggest names around. Here’s a brief look at his legacy.

JOCKETTY’S STRENGTHS

Jocketty built arguably the premier National League franchise of this decade. Since 2000, the Cardinals own more regular-seasons wins than any other NL team, won more playoff games, won more league titles, and, of course, won it all in 2006.

How did Jocketty do it? First of all, he was fearless. A master wheeler-dealer, nobody did a better job turning lemons into lemonade, often flipping questionable talent for marquee players.

Consider:

Jocketty landed, via trade, Mark McGwire, Jim Edmonds, Edgar Renteria, Darryl Kile, Scott Rolen, Dennis Eckersley, Todd Stottlemyre, Fernando Vina, Larry Walker, Will Clark, Adam Wainwright, and Woody Williams.

Here are the most notable players he gave up to get them: Eric Ludwick, T.J. Mathews, Kent Bottenfield, Adam Kennedy, Braden Looper, Pablo Ozuna, Manny Aybar, Jose Jimenez, Placido Polanco, Bud Smith, Steve Montgomery, Jay Witasick, Juan Acevedo, Chris Narveson, Jose Leon, one year of J.D. Drew, and the waning days of Ray Lankford’s career.

It’s an astonishing haul. Generally Jocketty would use the same formula: go after some established but underappreciated star, give up a few middling prospects for him, let him soak in the cozy St. Louis fan experience, win ballgames, re-sign the guy to an extension (often with a hometown discount), win more ballgames, then repeat the whole process as one big feedback loop. Jocketty was a master at that (and he was probably the best trading-deadline dealer there ever was – that’s how he got McGwire, Clark, Williams, Rolen, Walker, Chuck Finley, and Fernando Tatis).

Jocketty’s other big strength? Cobbling together a pitching staff on the cheap. It took him a while to get the hang of it – Cards’ hurlers in the ‘90s were usually awful. But Jocketty, along with rehab specialists Tony La Russa and pitching coach Dave Duncan, were able to buy low for arms like Chris Carpenter, Jeff Suppan, and Darryl Kile, and let them succeed in front of those reliable St. Louis infielders. At its best it worked beautifully. For example, in 2005 the Cards led the majors in ERA with a starting rotation that cost, altogether, $17 million – or less than what Roger Clemens alone made that year.

JOCKETTY’S WEAKNESSES

He was never that great at developing talent from within. Oh sure, he had his moments – he drafted and signed both Rick Ankiel and J.D. Drew when other teams wouldn’t touch ‘em for fear of being out-negotiated by Scott Boras. And of course, Jocketty was responsible for Albert Pujols, merely the best player in the league, if not all of baseball. But by and large the Cards’ cupboard ran rather bare during the Jocketty years. Baseball America has recently ranked them near the bottom of all major-league farm systems, and the Cards have been especially weak locating talent overseas. Perhaps that’s the flipside of Jocketty’s wheeling-and-dealing prowess – it gave him a sense that the team didn’t need to develop from within in order to succeed.

Jocketty’s other big weakness was that he tended to construct rather shallow rosters. Often the ballclub would be led by big shots like Pujols, Edmonds, and Rolen, while the margins were raggedy at best. Cards fans no doubt remember some of the team’s biggest playoff games left in the hands of shlubs like Craig Paquette, Garrett Stephenson, or Jason Marquis. To be fair, however, Jocketty improved in this area over the last couple years. The Cards’ bench and bullpen were among the best in the league this past year, and role players were crucial to winning the World Series in 2006.

JOCKETTY’S BEST MOVE

Landing McGwire was a masterstroke that rejuvenated the franchise, but I’d still go with the trade of Bottenfield and Kennedy to the Angels for Jim Edmonds. In 1999 Bottenfield was an 18-game winner while Edmonds was an underperformer clouded by “character issues.” But Jocketty noticed that Bottenfield’s peripherals were weak, Edmonds were strong, and he moved on a deal. Kennedy ended up a dependable starter in Anaheim, but Edmonds ended up the best centerfielder in baseball for a number of years.

JOCKETTY’S WORST MOVE

I can still remember December 18, 2004, when the Cards traded starter Danny Haren, reliever Kiko Calero, and hitting prodigy Daric Barton for Mark Mulder. As others have pointed out (I can’t remember where), Calero for Mulder straight-up would’ve been a poor deal for the Cards, to say nothing of losing Haren and Barton. When I first heard the news I became literally sick to my stomach, and the feeling hasn’t quite gone away.

-------------------------

And it's kind of ironic that Walt...like the Angels and Phillies had with Edmonds and Rolens... may now face that same situation with an Adam Dunn. Though Adam has not voiced any displeasure at being a Red or wanting out.

But that then brings us to problem #3.... Bob Castellini.

He still wants this thing turned around right away (if not sooner).

Which approach is Bob going to lean towards? I think the answer is pretty obvious since he bent over backwards to bring Jocketty in here. He did so because he KNOWS Jocketty and how he works, and what Walt has done in the past to win while at St Louis.

What do I think they'll do?

They know they have a solid core of young players. Bob wants to turn this thing around. So Walt is going to do (or attempt to do) what he has done in the past.... complement that core with some key acquisitions.

The BIG question is.... can he still work that magic?

Why wouldn't resigning Dunn be seen as one of those key "acquisitions"?

Everyone is trying to compare Dunn to players like the Ryan Howard, Frank Howard, brothers, and a slew of other sluggers.

Walt acquired an "under appreciated" player named McGwire. And in Mark's peak years with the Cards (1997-2001) the guy produced phenomenally.

Is Dunn, in that sense of being "under appreciated", going to be that "Mark McGwire" that some other team is going to basically "steal" from the Reds (Jocketty)?

Note: and yes, before red-in-la brings it up, I will. McGwire, with the Cards, hit better for average. But his career BA is only 16 pts higher then Dunn's (.263 vs .247) ;)

jojo
07-20-2008, 07:40 AM
In related news former Red (a guy they decided on) Austin Kearns is batting cleanup for the Nationals tonight. His slugging percentage is lower than his OBA, and his OBA is just .314.

In the last couple weeks (after getting back from his surgery rehab), he's done alright: .313/.436/.500 OPS: .936.

In a way, Kearns is just like Dunn. Both have been good values during their control years and have been paid about what they're worth during the last couple years. Neither really should be considered part of the problem.

It's debatable whether either should be considered part of the solution in the future.

buckeyenut
07-20-2008, 09:58 AM
http://content.usatoday.com/sports/baseball/salaries/default.aspx

It isn’t a 20-30% increase for Castellini,
Castellini decreased it by 1.6 %, then increased it by 11.6 % then again by 7 %,
it was increased by Lindner 32%, 21%, and 32%

Castellini, Reik, Lindner, and Strike are still partners along with the Williams and et el.
Here is what the owners and investors have done annually.

Because the numbers are from USA Today this is APPROXIMATELY, not actual’s


Last six years amount, increases, decreases
2008 $ 74,117,695 7 % increase Castellini
+ 5,212,715 increase
2007 $ 68,904,980 11.6 % increase Castellini
+7,995,461 increase
2006 $ 60,909,519 -1.6 % decrease Castellini
- 983,064 decrease
2005 $ 61,892,583 32 % increase Lindner
+15,277,333 increase
2004 $ 46,615,250 21 % decrease Lindner
-12,720,417 decrease
2003 $ 59,355,667 32 % increase Lindner
+ 14,305,277
2002 $ 45,050,390


Just to be clear, that 21% in the middle for Lindner is a DECREASE not an increase.

I've got no issues with what either guy has done regarding payroll so far.

mth123
07-20-2008, 10:07 AM
Just to be clear, that 21% in the middle for Lindner is a DECREASE not an increase.

I've got no issues with what either guy has done regarding payroll so far.

If I remember correctly, that decrease was announced as a temporary decrease used to finance construction of the Reds Hall of Fame. The increase the following year was just getting the Reds back to where they were without keeping up with industry inflation which is in effect a decrease. The decrease in Castellini's first year was from the trade of Sean Casey and the dumping of Ramon Ortiz and the lack of follow-up moves to utilize the money because no one was really available by the time Cast and WK took over. I'd say Cast gets a pass for the drop in 2006.

buckeyenut
07-20-2008, 10:12 AM
If we trade him or don't resign him, I really think we are going to look back 20 years from now and wish we had kept Adam Dunn. I truly believe he is going to end up right alongside Jr in the 600 HR club, with at least one 50 HR season.

Jr had 2 50 HR seasons during his career. He had one streak of 5 straight 40 HR seasons, which Dunn will tie if he does it this year. He has had 5 seasons of 20 or less HRs during his career. Dunn has had 1.

When all is said and Dunn, it would not surprise me to see Adam's career stats (in regards to HR and OPS, although clearly not BA or RBI) actually look very close to Hank Aarons. I don't think Dunn will play 23 seasons like Aaron, but I could easily see him holding up to play 18-20.

westofyou
07-20-2008, 10:36 AM
In a way, Kearns is just like Dunn.

And in a way he's been nothing like Dunn, not producing and not worth his salary.

Unassisted
07-20-2008, 10:51 AM
But if they let Adam Dunn walk then basically both he and Cast have been lying to us all season then when they said they wanted him back, and how hard it would be to replace a guy like Dunn.
I predict it will be spun as "We always wanted him back but his price and the price his new team paid was more than our projections said he was worth." Then they'll wish him well on his new team.

jojo
07-20-2008, 11:14 AM
And in a way he's been nothing like Dunn, not producing and not worth his salary.

Except that Kearns has been worth his salary.

Kc61
07-20-2008, 11:24 AM
If we trade him or don't resign him, I really think we are going to look back 20 years from now and wish we had kept Adam Dunn. I truly believe he is going to end up right alongside Jr in the 600 HR club, with at least one 50 HR season.

Jr had 2 50 HR seasons during his career. He had one streak of 5 straight 40 HR seasons, which Dunn will tie if he does it this year. He has had 5 seasons of 20 or less HRs during his career. Dunn has had 1.

When all is said and Dunn, it would not surprise me to see Adam's career stats (in regards to HR and OPS, although clearly not BA or RBI) actually look very close to Hank Aarons. I don't think Dunn will play 23 seasons like Aaron, but I could easily see him holding up to play 18-20.

This seems a little much. Dunn has 265 home runs. He is 28, will be 29 after the season. If he plays another 7 or 8 productive years, he might be a candidate for 500. But if he moves to a different type stadium, he might not.

I think Dunn is playing at a high level, but to read some of the posts the Cincinnati Reds should put up a "going out of business" sign if Dunn leaves. This is ridiculous.

Griffey has been a far greater player in his career and and was never in the World Series. One home run hitter -- even a very good one -- doesn't make or break any big league team. This is not like the NBA where a Shaq or Duncan dominates the playoffs.

If any one player is going to dominate a baseball season resulting in a championship, it's going to be a dominant pitcher. And usually even that doesn't happen.

If the Reds don't sign Dunn, they can redeploy their assets over a couple of years and become a winner without him. To me, this has always been about dollars and cents. Dunn is what he is -- he's worth a certain investment and if he commands too much, you go in a different direction. Reds cannot cripple themselves in order to retain this one player.

If the Reds let Dunn go, they will only kick themselves if they don't win and Dunn winds up contributing to championships. Like Frank Robinson when he went to Baltimore.

The Indians just let Sabathia go. Their franchise still exists, the world is still spinning, and Indians fans are excited about the young power hitter they got. That's how baseball works. Sometimes you give up somebody good, and go in a different direction.

I'm hopeful that the Reds are exploring re-signing Dunn, will evaluate the market for Dunn, and will make a correct decision. If he fits in the salary structure, they probably will try to sign him, but if he doesn't they will let him go. Either way, the team will go forward and Jocketty will try to have a winner.

But the moment of truth is approaching and the next couple of weeks should be interesting.

GAC
07-20-2008, 11:33 AM
Except that Kearns has been worth his salary.

And Dunn hasn't been?

But I don't see how one can say that Kearns has been worth his salary when two of the three years he has been with the Nats have been very sub-par/mediocre. The guy has been a huge under achiever IMO. No where even close to Dunn.

Matt700wlw
07-20-2008, 11:35 AM
Some "experts" say the best value they can get for Dunn is the two first round draft picks they would recieve as compensation if they let him walk.

I guess we'll see...

jojo
07-20-2008, 11:37 AM
And Dunn hasn't been?

But I don't see how one can say that Kearns has been worth his salary when two of the three years he has been with the Nats have been very sub-par/mediocre. The guy has been a huge under achiever IMO. No where even close to Dunn.

If you look at the original comparison, I was arguing that both players have been worth their salaries.

Here's the parallel again: both have turned out to be less than many hoped, both have been picked on incessantly by their detractors, both have in fact been worth their salaries (Dunn has been an above average left fielder despite his defense/BA/K and Kearns has essentially been a slightly above average to average right fielder because of his defense), neither have been part of the problem based upon their production/salary, but neither might actually be part of the solution for their teams in the future given the money they'll make relative to their production.

westofyou
07-20-2008, 11:39 AM
Except that Kearns has been worth his salary.

yep, he's been a barn burner, a real stud.

jojo
07-20-2008, 11:46 AM
yep, he's been a barn burner, a real stud.

It's not whether a player lives up to people's dreams but what he's actually done that determines his worth. He's been basically an average to slightly above average RFer when considering his bat, defense, and environment.

An average everyday big leaguer actually has considerable worth (basically 2 wins above replacement or on today's FA market roughly $8 to 9M/yr).

Kearns didn't have to be a stud to be worth the roughly $12M he's been paid as a major leaguer from his first at bat through the end of this season.

BTW, Kearns has been an absolute stud defensively.

westofyou
07-20-2008, 11:58 AM
It's not whether a player lives up to people's dreams but what he's actually done that determines his worth. He's been basically an average to slightly above average RFer when considering his bat, defense, and environment.

An average everyday big leaguer actually has considerable worth (basically 2 wins above replacement or on today's FA market roughly $8 to 9M/yr).

Kearns didn't have to be a stud to be worth the roughly $12M he's been paid as a major leaguer from his first at bat through the end of this season.

BTW, Kearns has been an absolute stud defensively.

I never had big dreams for Austin, nor do I find his 3 year decline in all aspects of his hitting game to be worth his defense (no matter what system you use to determine it)

Spin it how you like, tell me more things I already know as if I don't, but I doubt I'll change my mind and I'm positive you won't change yours.

nate
07-20-2008, 11:58 AM
I think Dunn is playing at a high level, but to read some of the posts the Cincinnati Reds should put up a "going out of business" sign if Dunn leaves. This is ridiculous.

I think he's playing at a high level too. But to read some of the posts the Cincinnati Reds should put up a "going out of business" sign if Dunn resigns. This is ridiculous.

Kc61
07-20-2008, 12:21 PM
I think he's playing at a high level too. But to read some of the posts the Cincinnati Reds should put up a "going out of business" sign if Dunn resigns. This is ridiculous.

Got a little confused here. I read "resigns" to mean Dunn was quitting. Now I get it.

Sure, I agree. Re-signing Dunn is fine as long as there's enough salary flexibilty to continue to improve the team. As long as the decision is well thought out and made with eyes open.

jojo
07-20-2008, 01:07 PM
I never had big dreams for Austin, nor do I find his 3 year decline in all aspects of his hitting game to be worth his defense (no matter what system you use to determine it)

Spin it how you like, tell me more things I already know as if I don't, but I doubt I'll change my mind and I'm positive you won't change yours.

Well at least you realize that you're not open to entertaining another view of Kearns.

Basically with the exception of this season where Kearns started slow, had surgery and is now playing better, it's tough to see a decline in his numbers-especially when environment is considered:

'06 Kearns: .264 .363 .467;'06 Kearns neutral park: .267 .366 .469; '06 NL ave RFer: .277 /.359/.478

'07 Kearns: .266 .355 .411; '07 Kearns neutral park:.280 .371 .432; '07 NL ave RFer: .275/.344/.442

'08 Kearns: .264 .363 .467; '08 Kearns neutral park:.224 .332 .322; '08 NL ave RFer: .271 .344 .437

Without even considering Kearns' defensive value, he's been an average RFer offensively. It's reasonable to assume his defense makes him an above average RFer.

Anyway, you've made up your mind.

westofyou
07-20-2008, 01:11 PM
Well at least you realize that you're not open to entertaining another view of Kearns.

And of course you could concede the same thing right?


Anyway, you've made up your mind.

On lots of stuff, on lots and lots of stuff.

jojo
07-20-2008, 01:15 PM
And of course you could concede the same thing right?

Actually I'm open to a compelling argument on the subject.

princeton
07-20-2008, 01:25 PM
Dunn's high HRs make up for his failure to drive in RISP (28 percent rate, very low)

Kearns' low HR totals don't (30 percent rate, also very low)

jojo
07-20-2008, 01:45 PM
Dunn's high HRs make up for his failure to drive in RISP (28 percent rate, very low)

Kearns' low HR totals don't (30 percent rate, also very low)

Kearns has basically been a league average RF bat. The value of that isn't diminished by the way he got there.

Stormy
07-20-2008, 03:19 PM
This young team is pretty close to contending in the near future, which is why it is important that they diligently try to re-sign Adam Dunn. Let the youngsters come of age, with the added support of having Dunn's production to fall back upon.

This will become a solid young offense, if we add a potent RHH power bat to the OF in the offseason. Meanwhile, with the continued growth of Volquez and Cueto, a return to normal production for Harang, a tweaking of the bullpen, and an improving young offense built around Dunn, we can be pretty good sooner than later. There is going to be a huge offensive vacuum to fill if Dunn is not retained.

Spring~Fields
07-20-2008, 03:32 PM
Just to be clear, that 21% in the middle for Lindner is a DECREASE not an increase.

I've got no issues with what either guy has done regarding payroll so far.

I apologize as I did error in that use of the word “increase“ or + when it clearly should read “decrease” or - . Thank you for bring that to my attention.

Spring~Fields
07-20-2008, 03:37 PM
If I remember correctly, that decrease was announced as a temporary decrease used to finance construction of the Reds Hall of Fame. The increase the following year was just getting the Reds back to where they were without keeping up with industry inflation which is in effect a decrease. The decrease in Castellini's first year was from the trade of Sean Casey and the dumping of Ramon Ortiz and the lack of follow-up moves to utilize the money because no one was really available by the time Cast and WK took over. I'd say Cast gets a pass for the drop in 2006.

This is correct in spirit if not the actual facts.

Yet it is an example of lateral moves and nothing more toward progression, and nothing more toward what should have been and should be a proactive approach during the decade of 2000, at putting a better, improved, truly competitive product on the baseball field of the Cincinnati organization, by the investor/ownership group, that can be measured by the results in the eyes of the common fan. The win/loss stat may not be the tell all, but, it certainly speaks volumes about the results and accomplishments of the ownership, the true management of the Cincinnati Reds, for which none of them should get a pass as long as they expect or hope for a profitable remuneration for their long standing poor product.

I simply cannot use a Griffey, a Dunn, or some pitcher, GM or field manager as an ongoing distraction to divert my focus from realities that are in the numbers, statistical and financial, and time expended continuous going in a direction that does not improve the overall quality of the product on the field.

How much middle management, lower field management, and player turnover do we need to see in eight years before we catch on that the Reds have not adapted to the changing times or competitive environment?

Spring~Fields
07-20-2008, 04:20 PM
Jocketty is definitely in a position where he going to have to be doing some jockeying... or should I say "jockettying" ;)

But if they let Adam Dunn walk then basically both he and Cast have been lying to us all season then when they said they wanted him back, and how hard it would be to replace a guy like Dunn.

Yep... he's got some jockettying to do. ;)

Billy Beane has been entered into the discussion.

#1 - Walt Jocketty, as impressive as his resume may be when with the Cards, is not Billy Beane. He has never operated (ran an organization) in the style (approach) of Beane.

Beane oversees and runs the farm system. Jocketty, while obviously no dummy, has acknowledged that that "area" (farm system) is not his forte, and that he has relied (delegated) that task to others.

#2 - while our farm system has shown improvement, it still no where possesses the talent that the As does, where they can afford to let a Giambi-type walk because they have a replacement in the system.

Beane also uses those players (like he did with Haren) to re-load, while keeping the payroll down.

Now if Jocketty wants to start taking that approach - an approach he's not done in the past while with the Cards - and use a player like Dunn (and possibly some others) then fine.

It's all about the end result.

Now edabbs44 has alluded to this in the past, concerning approach taken, and I tend to agree with him in a sense.

What approach is this FO going to take since they are now, in the '08 season, and with the opportunity to clear out a lot of money (contracts), as well as fodder, going to take?

They are not letting on to the fans, as they talk behind those "closed doors" what it will be. And I'm not saying they necessarily have to at this stage. No FO wants to show their hands when a trading deadline is approaching.

Is it going to be what I'll refer to as the Billy Beane approach (and we all know what that involves)? And more importantly - does this FO have the "smarts" (capabilities) to do such?

OR

Will it be the Jocketty (Cards) model?

Here is an interesting article on Jocketty's. Then you all tell me what "model" this FO is going to take ;) ....

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2008/04/brian-gunn-on-w.html

WALT JOCKETTY
By Brian Gunn

New Reds GM Walt Jocketty was a big-game hunter with the Cardinals. He generally looked elsewhere for talent, and he landed some of the biggest names around. Here’s a brief look at his legacy.

JOCKETTY’S STRENGTHS

Jocketty built arguably the premier National League franchise of this decade. Since 2000, the Cardinals own more regular-seasons wins than any other NL team, won more playoff games, won more league titles, and, of course, won it all in 2006.

How did Jocketty do it? First of all, he was fearless. A master wheeler-dealer, nobody did a better job turning lemons into lemonade, often flipping questionable talent for marquee players.

Consider:

Jocketty landed, via trade, Mark McGwire, Jim Edmonds, Edgar Renteria, Darryl Kile, Scott Rolen, Dennis Eckersley, Todd Stottlemyre, Fernando Vina, Larry Walker, Will Clark, Adam Wainwright, and Woody Williams.

Here are the most notable players he gave up to get them: Eric Ludwick, T.J. Mathews, Kent Bottenfield, Adam Kennedy, Braden Looper, Pablo Ozuna, Manny Aybar, Jose Jimenez, Placido Polanco, Bud Smith, Steve Montgomery, Jay Witasick, Juan Acevedo, Chris Narveson, Jose Leon, one year of J.D. Drew, and the waning days of Ray Lankford’s career.

It’s an astonishing haul. Generally Jocketty would use the same formula: go after some established but underappreciated star, give up a few middling prospects for him, let him soak in the cozy St. Louis fan experience, win ballgames, re-sign the guy to an extension (often with a hometown discount), win more ballgames, then repeat the whole process as one big feedback loop. Jocketty was a master at that (and he was probably the best trading-deadline dealer there ever was – that’s how he got McGwire, Clark, Williams, Rolen, Walker, Chuck Finley, and Fernando Tatis).

Jocketty’s other big strength? Cobbling together a pitching staff on the cheap. It took him a while to get the hang of it – Cards’ hurlers in the ‘90s were usually awful. But Jocketty, along with rehab specialists Tony La Russa and pitching coach Dave Duncan, were able to buy low for arms like Chris Carpenter, Jeff Suppan, and Darryl Kile, and let them succeed in front of those reliable St. Louis infielders. At its best it worked beautifully. For example, in 2005 the Cards led the majors in ERA with a starting rotation that cost, altogether, $17 million – or less than what Roger Clemens alone made that year.

JOCKETTY’S WEAKNESSES

He was never that great at developing talent from within. Oh sure, he had his moments – he drafted and signed both Rick Ankiel and J.D. Drew when other teams wouldn’t touch ‘em for fear of being out-negotiated by Scott Boras. And of course, Jocketty was responsible for Albert Pujols, merely the best player in the league, if not all of baseball. But by and large the Cards’ cupboard ran rather bare during the Jocketty years. Baseball America has recently ranked them near the bottom of all major-league farm systems, and the Cards have been especially weak locating talent overseas. Perhaps that’s the flipside of Jocketty’s wheeling-and-dealing prowess – it gave him a sense that the team didn’t need to develop from within in order to succeed.

Jocketty’s other big weakness was that he tended to construct rather shallow rosters. Often the ballclub would be led by big shots like Pujols, Edmonds, and Rolen, while the margins were raggedy at best. Cards fans no doubt remember some of the team’s biggest playoff games left in the hands of shlubs like Craig Paquette, Garrett Stephenson, or Jason Marquis. To be fair, however, Jocketty improved in this area over the last couple years. The Cards’ bench and bullpen were among the best in the league this past year, and role players were crucial to winning the World Series in 2006.

JOCKETTY’S BEST MOVE

Landing McGwire was a masterstroke that rejuvenated the franchise, but I’d still go with the trade of Bottenfield and Kennedy to the Angels for Jim Edmonds. In 1999 Bottenfield was an 18-game winner while Edmonds was an underperformer clouded by “character issues.” But Jocketty noticed that Bottenfield’s peripherals were weak, Edmonds were strong, and he moved on a deal. Kennedy ended up a dependable starter in Anaheim, but Edmonds ended up the best centerfielder in baseball for a number of years.

JOCKETTY’S WORST MOVE

I can still remember December 18, 2004, when the Cards traded starter Danny Haren, reliever Kiko Calero, and hitting prodigy Daric Barton for Mark Mulder. As others have pointed out (I can’t remember where), Calero for Mulder straight-up would’ve been a poor deal for the Cards, to say nothing of losing Haren and Barton. When I first heard the news I became literally sick to my stomach, and the feeling hasn’t quite gone away.

-------------------------

And it's kind of ironic that Walt...like the Angels and Phillies had with Edmonds and Rolens... may now face that same situation with an Adam Dunn. Though Adam has not voiced any displeasure at being a Red or wanting out.

But that then brings us to problem #3.... Bob Castellini.

He still wants this thing turned around right away (if not sooner).

Which approach is Bob going to lean towards? I think the answer is pretty obvious since he bent over backwards to bring Jocketty in here. He did so because he KNOWS Jocketty and how he works, and what Walt has done in the past to win while at St Louis.

What do I think they'll do?

They know they have a solid core of young players. Bob wants to turn this thing around. So Walt is going to do (or attempt to do) what he has done in the past.... complement that core with some key acquisitions.

The BIG question is.... can he still work that magic?

Why wouldn't resigning Dunn be seen as one of those key "acquisitions"?

Everyone is trying to compare Dunn to players like the Ryan Howard, Frank Howard, brothers, and a slew of other sluggers.

Walt acquired an "under appreciated" player named McGwire. And in Mark's peak years with the Cards (1997-2001) the guy produced phenomenally.

Is Dunn, in that sense of being "under appreciated", going to be that "Mark McGwire" that some other team is going to basically "steal" from the Reds (Jocketty)?

Note: and yes, before red-in-la brings it up, I will. McGwire, with the Cards, hit better for average. But his career BA is only 16 pts higher then Dunn's (.263 vs .247) ;)

Super post, I think.

:clap::clap::clap::clap:

buckeyenut
07-20-2008, 04:46 PM
This seems a little much. Dunn has 265 home runs. He is 28, will be 29 after the season. If he plays another 7 or 8 productive years, he might be a candidate for 500. But if he moves to a different type stadium, he might not.

I think Dunn is playing at a high level, but to read some of the posts the Cincinnati Reds should put up a "going out of business" sign if Dunn leaves. This is ridiculous.

Griffey has been a far greater player in his career and and was never in the World Series. One home run hitter -- even a very good one -- doesn't make or break any big league team. This is not like the NBA where a Shaq or Duncan dominates the playoffs.

If any one player is going to dominate a baseball season resulting in a championship, it's going to be a dominant pitcher. And usually even that doesn't happen.

If the Reds don't sign Dunn, they can redeploy their assets over a couple of years and become a winner without him. To me, this has always been about dollars and cents. Dunn is what he is -- he's worth a certain investment and if he commands too much, you go in a different direction. Reds cannot cripple themselves in order to retain this one player.

If the Reds let Dunn go, they will only kick themselves if they don't win and Dunn winds up contributing to championships. Like Frank Robinson when he went to Baltimore.

The Indians just let Sabathia go. Their franchise still exists, the world is still spinning, and Indians fans are excited about the young power hitter they got. That's how baseball works. Sometimes you give up somebody good, and go in a different direction.

I'm hopeful that the Reds are exploring re-signing Dunn, will evaluate the market for Dunn, and will make a correct decision. If he fits in the salary structure, they probably will try to sign him, but if he doesn't they will let him go. Either way, the team will go forward and Jocketty will try to have a winner.

But the moment of truth is approaching and the next couple of weeks should be interesting.
You mention another 7-8 productive years out of Dunn and he'd be a "candidate" for 500. Averaging 30 Hrs for next 8 years puts him over 500. Considering he has been under 20 HRs one season in his career and has been over 40 the last four (this year will be five in a row) and has been immensely durable, that seems pretty reasonable to project. That and power is typically an old players skill, which may mean he still has more power potential in him.

Is it a slam dunk he will get there? Of course not. But other than maybe Ryan Howard, I'd put Dunn's chances at 500 or 600 HRs up there with any young (<30) player in major leagues.

You make some good points around Dunn's impact on team. I don't disagree with any of them. But don't you think Seattle fans have some sense of regret or what might have been when seeing Jr hit #600 this year? Beyond team impact.

princeton
07-20-2008, 05:59 PM
Kearns has basically been a league average RF bat. The value of that isn't diminished by the way he got there.

if his offense delivered more or created a bit more, he'd be blah.

instead, he's below blah, and because of that (as we've seen) never generated much trade value.

RedsManRick
07-20-2008, 10:18 PM
Ryan Howard is 10 days younger than Adam Dunn. Adam Dunn has out homered him 265 to 158. Dunn is 2.5 years worth of HR ahead of Howard.

SteelSD
07-20-2008, 11:03 PM
if his offense delivered more or created a bit more, he'd be blah.

instead, he's below blah, and because of that (as we've seen) never generated much trade value.

Austin Kearns 2006: 8.5 Runs Above Position
Austin Kearns 2007: -1.0 Runs Above Position

Player X 2006: 2.0 Runs Above Position
Player X 2007: 8.8 Runs Above Position

The difference over two seasons is a total of about one third of a Win offensively.

Both players are consistently among the best defenders at their respective positions. Wayne Krivsky acquired Player X during the same season in which he traded away Austin Kearns for junk (which is more of a reflection of what Krivsky was willing to accept while desperate rather than his "market value").

Oh, Kearn's positional average from 2007 was an OPS of .803 and an EQA of .272 from 2007 and a 2006 OPS/EQA of .805 and .276 respectively. Player X's positional average for 2007 was an OPS of .755 and an EQA of .259 and a 2006 OPS/EQA of .747 and .254.

Both players are close in age and both were recently signed to contract extensions that will pay Player X about a million more per season and will guarantee Player X about 10 Million dollars more than what Kearns would receive should the Nationals choose not to exercise their club option for the fourth year of the contract.

Who is Player X? And why exactly do we frame Austin Kearns' offense as being "below blah" prior to an awful trade that netted truly "below blah" performance even though "below blah" pretty much matches the best offensive performance ever seen from Player X?

Highlifeman21
07-20-2008, 11:30 PM
Player X is Brandon Phillips?

red-in-la
07-20-2008, 11:47 PM
Walt acquired an "under appreciated" player named McGwire. And in Mark's peak years with the Cards (1997-2001) the guy produced phenomenally.

Is Dunn, in that sense of being "under appreciated", going to be that "Mark McGwire" that some other team is going to basically "steal" from the Reds (Jocketty)?

Note: and yes, before red-in-la brings it up, I will. McGwire, with the Cards, hit better for average. But his career BA is only 16 pts higher then Dunn's (.263 vs .247) ;)


Jocketty acquired an underappreciated McGwire who hit 70 HR's because he was using a banned substance. :eek:

People talk about improving......but they don't see the forest for the trees.

Compare Josh Hamilton's production to Edinson Volquez. Which performance has been more important to the team and how many members think it was a good trade?

If that was a good trade, then spending Dunn's money on a pitcher should be a total no-brainer. I actually find myuself having to argue in favor of that trade, even though I still think it was one of the worst in Reds history, simply because Volquez is worth more than Hamilton to a small market team.

In the same vein, trading for JR was then the disaster it has been for the Reds. Have the Reds won anything with JR's production? If the Reds were going to trade for and sign a player to a 9 year deal, for three times what any other Reds had made up to that point, it should have been a pitcher.

So this Dunn issue continues to be what it is....a total no-brainer.

remdog
07-20-2008, 11:53 PM
This young team is pretty close to contending in the near future, which is why it is important that they diligently try to re-sign Adam Dunn. Let the youngsters come of age, with the added support of having Dunn's production to fall back upon.

This will become a solid young offense, if we add a potent RHH power bat to the OF in the offseason. Meanwhile, with the continued growth of Volquez and Cueto, a return to normal production for Harang, a tweaking of the bullpen, and an improving young offense built around Dunn, we can be pretty good sooner than later. There is going to be a huge offensive vacuum to fill if Dunn is not retained.

That pretty much sums up my viewpoint as well. :thumbup: What I don't want to see is Dunn leaving and another 'rebuilding' cycle begin. While I think the '08 team is destined for a .500 season (at best) I do think that with a little 'tweeking' of what they have they can compete as soon as next year.

Lose Dunn for draft choices and you're rolling the whole cycle over again.

Just my opinion but....

Rem

remdog
07-20-2008, 11:58 PM
If the Reds were going to trade for and sign a player to a 9 year deal, for three times what any other Reds had made up to that point, it should have been a pitcher.

Ummm, ......no! :rolleyes:

Rem

red-in-la
07-21-2008, 12:05 AM
Ummm, ......no! :rolleyes:

Rem

Well, JR has been a 100 million dollar disaster.......an argument with that?

SteelSD
07-21-2008, 12:07 AM
Player X is Brandon Phillips?

"Player X" is indeed Brandon Phillips.

Anyone want to trade Brandon Phillips for Gary Majewski? Anyone? Buehler...Buehler...

SteelSD
07-21-2008, 12:09 AM
Well, JR has been a 100 million dollar disaster.......an argument with that?

The trade for Ken Griffey Junior was brilliant. It appears that you're equating "bad luck" with "disaster".

red-in-la
07-21-2008, 12:23 AM
The trade for Ken Griffey Junior was brilliant. It appears that you're equating "bad luck" with "disaster".

Trading for a guy you had to almost turn your payroll over to was a disaster.....if you intent was to win.

Seattle had A-ROD and JR and won almost nothing because they had no pitching.

When they lost both of these guys, and spent their moeny on pitching they won a lot.

Unless you are the Yankees and can afford to spend millions of hitter and more millions on pitching, you better spend your moeny on pitchers.

Any small market wonderkinds out there have hitters that get 30% of their payrolls?

remdog
07-21-2008, 12:27 AM
Nine year contracts to pitchers is the argument.

Rem

SteelSD
07-21-2008, 12:27 AM
Trading for a guy you had to almost turn your payroll over to was a disaster.....if you intent was to win.

Seattle had A-ROD and JR and won almost nothing because they had no pitching.

When they lost both of these guys, and spent their moeny on pitching they won a lot.

Unless you are the Yankees and can afford to spend millions of hitter and more millions on pitching, you better spend your moeny on pitchers.

Any small market wonderkinds out there have hitters that get 30% of their payrolls?

That's not really what went down with the M's, but feel free to believe whatever you like.

red-in-la
07-21-2008, 12:45 AM
Nine year contracts to pitchers is the argument.

Rem

I agree that I would never give a 9 year deal to a pitcher (LA and Kevin Brown?). I also wouldn't have given that contract to JR.

red-in-la
07-21-2008, 12:46 AM
That's not really what went down with the M's, but feel free to believe whatever you like.

I just love it when I get permission......

WVRedsFan
07-21-2008, 12:50 AM
I agree that I would never give a 9 year deal to a pitcher (LA and Kevin Brown?). I also wouldn't have given that contract to JR.

In hindsight I totally agree. We didn't know about the injuries that would happen, but long term contracts of this type put players into their declining years. And I imagine, a productive Griffey, so Bowden thought, could be traded easily. The trouble was he didn't count on the injuries.

That's why Krivsky got into trouble. He banked on everything staying the same for Freel (though his injury and fatigue record was clear), Arroyo (who had not proven anything yet after one year of success), Cromier (who was clearly in decline), Stanton (ditto) and others. It appears that Harang might also blow up in our faces (though I certainly hope not). Three years max for pitchers. Look at the Giants with Barry Z. What they going to do with that contract?

jojo
07-21-2008, 06:36 AM
Seattle had A-ROD and JR and won almost nothing because they had no pitching.

When they lost both of these guys, and spent their moeny on pitching they won a lot.

Actually their rotation was pretty meh the year they won 116 games.

gonelong
07-21-2008, 09:37 AM
Seattle had A-ROD and JR and won almost nothing because they had no pitching.

When they lost both of these guys, and spent their moeny on pitching they won a lot.



Seattle Payroll
1999: $44M (Jr leaves after season)
2000: $59M (Rodriquez leaves after season)
2001: $74M (+$17M to negotiate for Ichiro) = $91M
2002: $80M

The M's had effectively doubled their payroll after one season without Jr and one off-season without Rodriquez.

For comparison
Reds
1999: $42 M
2000: $44 M
2001: $49 M
2002: $45 M


GL

Kc61
07-21-2008, 10:03 AM
That's why Krivsky got into trouble. He banked on everything staying the same for Freel (though his injury and fatigue record was clear), Arroyo (who had not proven anything yet after one year of success), Cromier (who was clearly in decline), Stanton (ditto) and others. It appears that Harang might also blow up in our faces (though I certainly hope not). Three years max for pitchers. Look at the Giants with Barry Z. What they going to do with that contract?

Easy to say, but the Reds play in a home run paradise, in a relatively small market. If they limit pitching contracts to three years, who is coming to pitch for them? Not the higher level guys, certainly.

The Reds have to compete for players. Sometimes it means a contract will go bad. It happens to all baseball teams, even the best organizations.

RedsZone is replete with criticisms of deals like Stanton and Cormier which cost next to nothing in major league baseball terms. All teams take these small risks. And most good teams take larger risks too. Carl Pavano is a familiar name to Yankee fans, for example.

I've got no problem with the Harang and Arroyo deals. When made, they were pretty good gambles. Now, I'd like to see Arroyo in a good trade because the team has a pipeline of young pitching and they can save some money. But if he stays and is the fourth or fifth starter, that's ok with me.

As a fan, I'd much rather see a team "go for it" by signing good players than be afraid to pull the trigger.

To get back to the topic at hand, there are ten days left. If anyone reads anything interesting about Dunn -- or Arroyo -- please post.

flyer85
07-21-2008, 12:13 PM
hopefully one thing the Reds will do in the off-season in targeting potential replacements for Dunn/Jr is look at guys who play in big ball parks that make a lot of warning track outs that might turn into HRs in GABP(the Aurilia effect). There has to be a small group of players who would benefit quite handsomely from playing 81 games in GABP and the Reds need to identify them.

redsmetz
07-21-2008, 12:37 PM
Easy to say, but the Reds play in a home run paradise, in a relatively small market. If they limit pitching contracts to three years, who is coming to pitch for them? Not the higher level guys, certainly.

The Reds have to compete for players. Sometimes it means a contract will go bad. It happens to all baseball teams, even the best organizations.

RedsZone is replete with criticisms of deals like Stanton and Cormier which cost next to nothing in major league baseball terms. All teams take these small risks. And most good teams take larger risks too. Carl Pavano is a familiar name to Yankee fans, for example.

I've got no problem with the Harang and Arroyo deals. When made, they were pretty good gambles. Now, I'd like to see Arroyo in a good trade because the team has a pipeline of young pitching and they can save some money. But if he stays and is the fourth or fifth starter, that's ok with me.

As a fan, I'd much rather see a team "go for it" by signing good players than be afraid to pull the trigger.

To get back to the topic at hand, there are ten days left. If anyone reads anything interesting about Dunn -- or Arroyo -- please post.

I think you bring up some good points. In fact, Arroyo seems to have righted his ship and is pitching very well right now. Same for Fogg. Of course, we're all crossing our fingers that Harang's situation is not real bad.

Many of the moves mentioned are, as you said, fairly routine with ML clubs. Stanton didn't pan out and with him and with Cormier, I think that there was a shift in the marketplace in the three seasons Krivsky was here that ultimately made contracts such as those very problematic. I think WK (and this is just my opinion) expected to be able to move those two contracts, for example, part way through their duration (much as he did with Conine), but as folks have noted here, teams seem to be really hanging on to any manner of prospect and aren't casting them about willy nilly as they had in the past. I think clubs are probably right to do that (just as we refused to part with some of our top prospects this past off season). of course, none of these immediate players were going to bring a top prospect, but I think the hope had been (again, my conjecture) to move them for some minor league players to add depth to our system. Hatteberg fell into that category as well.

No one could have foreseen the injuries to Griffey and that's what has subsequently made his contract untenable. I love Griffey, but I think we win that game yesterday with a speedier right fielder. The catch Griffey made was great, but tumbling down after having run to catch the ball doomed any chance of catching that runner at home. The other catch in the 10th, he had no problem with and made a great throw. Bako dropped the ball and that's all she wrote. We know that story.

This team isn't without flaws. There is a good chunk that needs to be replaced (C, SS, RF) and, we know the hwole town gets schitzophrenic when it comes to Adam Dunn and that's the way it will be until his situation is resolved. Stay tuned.

redsmetz
07-21-2008, 04:28 PM
I came across this on mlbtraderumors.com


Matt Holliday, Rockies. Holliday, a Scott Boras client, is signed for '09 at $13.5MM. The Rockies' asking price seems to be fantastically high.

Jason Bay, Pirates. The Bucs are not motivated to trade Bay, who is signed for next year at just $7.5MM. An extension seems more likely than a trade.

Adam Dunn, Reds. There hasn't been much buzz around Dunn, for some reason. He's got a very Dunn-like .230/.387/.550 line, which includes a staggering 75 walks in 385 plate appearances. He's likely to be a Type A free agent after the season, and I don't buy the logic that the Reds are afraid to offer him arbitration for fear he'll accept.

Xavier Nady, Pirates. Nady is generally a right fielder, but he can play left. He is under team control but not contract for '09. He is in the midst of the best year of his career and has a host of suitors. Dejan Kovacevic says "truly elite prospects are not on the table" in possible trades, though.

David DeJesus, Royals. The 28 year-old DeJesus is also having a career-best season, flashing more power than ever. He can play all three outfield positions; his team-friendly contract runs through 2010 with an option for '11. It would take a lot for the Royals to trade their (arguably) best hitter.

Raul Ibanez, Mariners. The Ms could choose to keep Ibanez, both for his leadership and in an attempt to avoid an even more embarrassing offense. He has a good shot at Type A free agent status, too.

Casey Blake, Indians. Blake seems likely to be traded; he could be someone's Plan B to Nady. He's been raking since the beginning of June and is a free agent after the season.

Chris Duncan, Cardinals. Duncan's power disappeared sometime around August of last year. The 27 year-old looks like more of a platoon/bench guy.

Juan Rivera, Angels. Rivera is making the most of regular playing time, and isn't expendable.

David Dellucci, Indians. Dellucci can only be used against righties, and he hasn't hit them particularly well since '06. He's signed for '09 at $4MM.

Jay Payton, Orioles. Payton has been lousy and seems like a DFA candidate.

Dave Roberts, Giants. The injury-prone speedster is under contract for $6.5MM in '09. He'll return from the DL on Wednesday and figures to take a bench role behind Fred Lewis.

Kenny Lofton, free agent. Lofton posted an .838 OPS against righties last year, but he remains unemployed. He should get a job soon if his price is reasonable.

Raisor
07-21-2008, 06:51 PM
Seattle had A-ROD and JR and won almost nothing because they had no pitching.

When they lost both of these guys, and spent their moeny on pitching they won a lot.



Mariners have had four playoff appearances

1995 w/KGj & AROD
1997 w/KGj & AROD
2000 w/AROD

2001 w/o either

WebScorpion
07-22-2008, 09:19 AM
I think they've decided not to accept anything less than two top-tier prospects+, since they believe they can get 2 top prospects if he doesn't accept arbitration. If he does accept, then it's all moot anyway; Dunn plays another year as a Red. Where's the bad part? :thumbup:

Raisor
07-22-2008, 09:24 AM
Heck, I hope there really isn't a market for Dunn out there. Trade or Free Agent. If it means he gets to be a Red for the next four years, I'm all for it.

ATTENTION ALL SCOUTS/EXECUTIVES IN MLB:

Adam Dunn is not a player you want! He strikes out too much and is mean to old women and dogs.

Adam Dunn once told me that he likes to play video games! VIDEO GAMES of all things! This man must NOT become a member of your ballclubs!

Cyclone792
07-22-2008, 09:45 AM
Heck, I hope there really isn't a market for Dunn out there. Trade or Free Agent. If it means he gets to be a Red for the next four years, I'm all for it.

Yup, you and me both.


ATTENTION ALL SCOUTS/EXECUTIVES IN MLB:

Adam Dunn is not a player you want! He strikes out too much and is mean to old women and dogs.

Adam Dunn once told me that he likes to play video games! VIDEO GAMES of all things! This man must NOT become a member of your ballclubs!

In the clubhouse too! He even takes his systems with him ON ROADTRIPS!

Stay away, general managers! Stay away!

nate
07-22-2008, 09:56 AM
He doesn't recycle either!

Degenerate39
07-22-2008, 09:58 AM
He doesn't recycle either!

He uses plastic bags instead of paper at the stores too!

Spring~Fields
07-22-2008, 10:04 AM
Will it be the Jocketty (Cards) model?

Here is an interesting article on Jocketty's. Then you all tell me what "model" this FO is going to take ;) ....

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2008/04/brian-gunn-on-w.html

WALT JOCKETTY
By Brian Gunn

New Reds GM Walt Jocketty was a big-game hunter with the Cardinals. He generally looked elsewhere for talent, and he landed some of the biggest names around. Here’s a brief look at his legacy.

JOCKETTY’S STRENGTHS

Jocketty built arguably the premier National League franchise of this decade. Since 2000, the Cardinals own more regular-seasons wins than any other NL team, won more playoff games, won more league titles, and, of course, won it all in 2006.

How did Jocketty do it? First of all, he was fearless. A master wheeler-dealer, nobody did a better job turning lemons into lemonade, often flipping questionable talent for marquee players.

Consider:

Jocketty landed, via trade, Mark McGwire, Jim Edmonds, Edgar Renteria, Darryl Kile, Scott Rolen, Dennis Eckersley, Todd Stottlemyre, Fernando Vina, Larry Walker, Will Clark, Adam Wainwright, and Woody Williams.

Here are the most notable players he gave up to get them: Eric Ludwick, T.J. Mathews, Kent Bottenfield, Adam Kennedy, Braden Looper, Pablo Ozuna, Manny Aybar, Jose Jimenez, Placido Polanco, Bud Smith, Steve Montgomery, Jay Witasick, Juan Acevedo, Chris Narveson, Jose Leon, one year of J.D. Drew, and the waning days of Ray Lankford’s career.

It’s an astonishing haul. Generally Jocketty would use the same formula: go after some established but underappreciated star, give up a few middling prospects for him, let him soak in the cozy St. Louis fan experience, win ballgames, re-sign the guy to an extension (often with a hometown discount), win more ballgames, then repeat the whole process as one big feedback loop. Jocketty was a master at that (and he was probably the best trading-deadline dealer there ever was – that’s how he got McGwire, Clark, Williams, Rolen, Walker, Chuck Finley, and Fernando Tatis).

Jocketty’s other big strength? Cobbling together a pitching staff on the cheap. It took him a while to get the hang of it – Cards’ hurlers in the ‘90s were usually awful. But Jocketty, along with rehab specialists Tony La Russa and pitching coach Dave Duncan, were able to buy low for arms like Chris Carpenter, Jeff Suppan, and Darryl Kile, and let them succeed in front of those reliable St. Louis infielders. At its best it worked beautifully. For example, in 2005 the Cards led the majors in ERA with a starting rotation that cost, altogether, $17 million – or less than what Roger Clemens alone made that year.

JOCKETTY’S WEAKNESSES

He was never that great at developing talent from within. Oh sure, he had his moments – he drafted and signed both Rick Ankiel and J.D. Drew when other teams wouldn’t touch ‘em for fear of being out-negotiated by Scott Boras. And of course, Jocketty was responsible for Albert Pujols, merely the best player in the league, if not all of baseball. But by and large the Cards’ cupboard ran rather bare during the Jocketty years. Baseball America has recently ranked them near the bottom of all major-league farm systems, and the Cards have been especially weak locating talent overseas. Perhaps that’s the flipside of Jocketty’s wheeling-and-dealing prowess – it gave him a sense that the team didn’t need to develop from within in order to succeed.

Jocketty’s other big weakness was that he tended to construct rather shallow rosters. Often the ballclub would be led by big shots like Pujols, Edmonds, and Rolen, while the margins were raggedy at best. Cards fans no doubt remember some of the team’s biggest playoff games left in the hands of shlubs like Craig Paquette, Garrett Stephenson, or Jason Marquis. To be fair, however, Jocketty improved in this area over the last couple years. The Cards’ bench and bullpen were among the best in the league this past year, and role players were crucial to winning the World Series in 2006.

JOCKETTY’S BEST MOVE

Landing McGwire was a masterstroke that rejuvenated the franchise, but I’d still go with the trade of Bottenfield and Kennedy to the Angels for Jim Edmonds. In 1999 Bottenfield was an 18-game winner while Edmonds was an underperformer clouded by “character issues.” But Jocketty noticed that Bottenfield’s peripherals were weak, Edmonds were strong, and he moved on a deal. Kennedy ended up a dependable starter in Anaheim, but Edmonds ended up the best centerfielder in baseball for a number of years.

JOCKETTY’S WORST MOVE

I can still remember December 18, 2004, when the Cards traded starter Danny Haren, reliever Kiko Calero, and hitting prodigy Daric Barton for Mark Mulder. As others have pointed out (I can’t remember where), Calero for Mulder straight-up would’ve been a poor deal for the Cards, to say nothing of losing Haren and Barton. When I first heard the news I became literally sick to my stomach, and the feeling hasn’t quite gone away.

-------------------------

And it's kind of ironic that Walt...like the Angels and Phillies had with Edmonds and Rolens... may now face that same situation with an Adam Dunn. Though Adam has not voiced any displeasure at being a Red or wanting out.

But that then brings us to problem #3.... Bob Castellini.

He still wants this thing turned around right away (if not sooner).

Which approach is Bob going to lean towards? I think the answer is pretty obvious since he bent over backwards to bring Jocketty in here. He did so because he KNOWS Jocketty and how he works, and what Walt has done in the past to win while at St Louis.

What do I think they'll do?

They know they have a solid core of young players. Bob wants to turn this thing around. So Walt is going to do (or attempt to do) what he has done in the past.... complement that core with some key acquisitions.

The BIG question is.... can he still work that magic?



Bill Madden
Sunday, October 7th 2007, 9:49 AM
Walt Jocketty gets axed from Cards because of numbers crunch



The firing of respected Walt Jocketty as Cardinals GM last Tuesday by team chairman Bill DeWitt was just another example of the growing trend of meddling owners reducing the powers of the general manager and shifting the emphasis of baseball operations to statistical analysis.

In announcing he was parting ways with Jocketty - under whose stewardship the Cardinals had gone to the postseason five times in the last seven years, twice to the World Series and winning it all just last year - DeWitt cited an irreconcilable division within the Cardinals' front office. But it was a division DeWitt created when he promoted Jeff Luhnow, one of the new-wave stat practitioners, as head of both player development and scouting.

Jocketty viewed that as a usurping of his powers - especially since Luhnow clearly had the chairman's ear - and let it be known to his friends and associates that he was not comfortable with the new arrangement. In addition, the payroll constraints placed on Jocketty by DeWitt prevented the Cardinals from retaining many of their free agents.
It created an annual challenge for Jocketty to "patch the tire" with creative deals with clubs conducting fire sales and signing middle-of-the-road free agents such as Juan Encarnacion and David Eckstein. On the other hand, a big part of Jocketty's undoing with DeWitt was the failure of the Cardinals' farm system to develop any pitchers in a decade and only two frontline players, catcher Yadier Molina and outfielder Chris Duncan, in recent years.

It will be interesting to see who DeWitt hires as the new GM as he's already stated a preference for someone between the age of 30 and 40 with a player-development background and an understanding of a middle-market operation. Translation: Someone to work alongside Luhnow and DeWitt. (Cardinal insiders say DeWitt could do a lot worse than assistant GM John Mozeliak, who has been installed as the interim GM.)
On the day Jocketty was fired, Cardinals president Mark Lamping declared, "The best job in baseball just opened." It's doubtful if you'd find any other veteran baseball people who would share that opinion.

Clearly, however, old-school GMs such as the 56-year-old Jocketty are a dying breed, slowly being run out of baseball. Classic case in point is Houston, where the equally respected and accomplished Gerry Hunsicker got fed up with owner Drayton McLane's constant meddling and abruptly quit as GM a year before the Astro team he built made it to its only World Series in 2005. Since then, McLane and his team president, Tal Smith, made Hunsicker assistant Tim Purpura their puppet GM for two years before firing him last month and replacing him with Ed Wade, a longtime Smith aide who comes into the job with the understanding that he'll essentially be doing the owner's bidding.

And in Pittsburgh there's no reason to believe it isn't going to be the same losing business as usual after new president Frank Coonelly passed over a half-dozen candidates with proven track records in scouting and player development to tap Neal Huntington, another stat guy who had been relegated to third in Cleveland GM Mark Shapiro's chain of command. According to sources, ex-Met assistant GM Jim Duquette, who was let go in Baltimore on Friday, is a good bet to be hired by Huntington as his top assistant.

Meanwhile, there is also a theory being espoused in St. Louis that DeWitt's firing of Jocketty was calculated to assure that Tony La Russa would not come back as baseball's second highest-paid manager behind Joe Torre. While DeWitt publicly has said he wants La Russa back, no one believes he wants to pay $5 million for a manager with La Russa's baggage, and it's believed DeWitt would like a clean slate with his management team.

Assuming La Russa doesn't come back, the jobs currently expected to be available - Kansas City, where Buddy Bell has retired; Cincinnati, where interim Pete Mackanin probably would've been hired by now if the Reds were really intent on retaining him and Pittsburgh, where skipper Jim Tracy got the bad news Friday - are neither appealing nor likely for him because of those clubs' inability to pay (for players or managers). Pirate insiders say Indians third base coach Joel Skinner is Huntington's top choice to replace Tracy. Reds owner Bob Castellini, a former partner with the Cardinals, would probably love to bring in both Jocketty and La Russa, but it's unrealistic to think either of them would be interested in what looks to be a long-term rebuilding situation with limited resources. Castellini is said to be looking to hire a high-profile manager and Joe Girardi's name has been mentioned there as well as former Diamondbacks manager Bob Brenly, who led Arizona to a title in 2001.



Is it going to be what I'll refer to as the Billy Beane approach (and we all know what that involves)? And more importantly - does this FO have the "smarts" (capabilities) to do such?

01/20/2006
Castellini's announcement speech

“I want to make a promise today to Reds fans wherever you are -- a promise from one fan to another -- we will bring championship baseball to Cincinnati. This is just our first day on the job. From this moment forward, we will work toward that dream, and will not rest until we exceed the expectations of our fans.”

“Before I go any further, on behalf of the entire ownership group, I want to thank Carl Lindner for his stewardship of the Cincinnati Reds.

We respect him deeply as man of integrity and applaud his intense loyalty to Cincinnati. I want to thank George Strike, a past and continuing partner in the Reds, for teaming with Carl to allow us the opportunity to purchase this fabled franchise.”

“If it hadn't been for Carl's help and advice and George's as well, we wouldn't be here today as the new owners. We're happy that they are retaining a portion of their shares, and we're happy that Carl has agreed to stay on board as honorary chairman. Longtime fans and owners Louise Nippert and Bill Reik will continue with the group as well.”

“We're not new to this game. Some in our ownership group have been in baseball as part owners of the Reds and with the Orioles, the Rangers and the Cardinals. As partners in St. Louis, Tom and Joe Williams and I had front-row seats for the transformation of the St. Louis franchise.”

“Ten years ago, the Cardinals' situation was almost identical to where the Reds are now. A long-range plan that focused on building a world class organization by putting the right people in the right jobs was put in place. Improved performance led to improved attendance. Improved attendance led to more revenue. More revenue led to more payroll. Now, the Cardinals are a strong, consistent winner.
That's where we want to be. We're buying the Reds to win. Anything else is unacceptable.”
“Our experience as owners with other franchises has proven that it's not so much what you spend -- it's how you spend that's most important.”


It created an annual challenge for Jocketty to "patch the tire" with creative deals with clubs conducting fire sales and signing middle-of-the-road free agents

Sound familiar GAC ?

Kc61
07-23-2008, 05:33 PM
About a week to go and Dunn now has 29 homers, tied for the MLB lead. You have to wonder whether the GMs out there are watching and offering. Hard to see why they wouldn't be, guy is on fire.

dfs
07-23-2008, 10:16 PM
I think Dunn is playing at a high level, but to read some of the posts the Cincinnati Reds should put up a "going out of business" sign if Dunn leaves. This is ridiculous.

Griffey has been a far greater player in his career and and was never in the World Series.Interesting that since Junior left the Mariners they still have not made it into the World Series.

I don't think the problem with not re-signing Dunn is just that Dunn is gone. I believe it's a foregone conclusion at this point that the reds are not going to bring Junior back. So now you've got to get TWO outfielders and still hope that Jay Bruce takes a step forward. Without Dunn and Junior, this offense is going to be pretty terrible.

It would be nice to see good things out of Bruce for the second half of the season. Things are not breaking his way.

sonny
07-23-2008, 10:46 PM
AWell, Ive been kind of on the fence about Dunn, but I now believe you have to sign this guy. Griffey said it well, that when Dunn is on, he's capable of carrying this team on his back. Jocketty needs to make this deal happen.

WVRedsFan
07-23-2008, 11:33 PM
Interesting that since Junior left the Mariners they still have not made it into the World Series.

I don't think the problem with not re-signing Dunn is just that Dunn is gone. I believe it's a foregone conclusion at this point that the reds are not going to bring Junior back. So now you've got to get TWO outfielders and still hope that Jay Bruce takes a step forward. Without Dunn and Junior, this offense is going to be pretty terrible.

It would be nice to see good things out of Bruce for the second half of the season. Things are not breaking his way.

Exactly. To date, Dunn and Griffey have a combined 42 HR's and 117 RBI's as our corner outfielders. If you project it out to the full season, that would be 68 Hr's and 191 RBI's. How do you replace that? It certainly cannot be found in the system at present. The kids are just that--kids--and couldn't put up those numbers as we've seen with our best prospect in awhile--Jay Bruce. What do you do? You have to trade or go into free agency to replace Dunn especially if you let him walk. Junior is still productive at a rate that would also require the same scenario.

Without these two, even with improved pitching, we still are a losing club with slightly more revenue wiggle room. I don't like the idea of not signing Dunn one bit.

Kc61
07-23-2008, 11:45 PM
Dunn is number eleven in all MLB in OPS this year. Dunn is tied for fifth and sixth in strikeouts, which actually isn't a bad number considering the type of hitter he is. Dunn leads MLB in walks. Tied for the lead in HRs. Tied for 15 in RBI.

Dunn really has turned up the pressure on Walt.

Spring~Fields
07-23-2008, 11:52 PM
Dunn is number eleven in all MLB in OPS this year. Dunn is tied for fifth and sixth in strikeouts, which actually isn't a bad number considering the type of hitter he is. Dunn leads MLB in walks. Tied for the lead in HRs. Tied for 15 in RBI.

Dunn really has turned up the pressure on Walt.

Should Jocketty trade him while his value is probably up?

Raisor
07-23-2008, 11:55 PM
Dunn is number eleven in all MLB in OPS this year. Dunn is tied for fifth and sixth in strikeouts, which actually isn't a bad number considering the type of hitter he is. Dunn leads MLB in walks. Tied for the lead in HRs. Tied for 15 in RBI.

Dunn really has turned up the pressure on Walt.

...and in the NL

OPS-8th
OBP-11th
SLG-12th

and for you "old school" types
11th in RBI

kaldaniels
07-23-2008, 11:57 PM
Exactly. To date, Dunn and Griffey have a combined 42 HR's and 117 RBI's as our corner outfielders. If you project it out to the full season, that would be 68 Hr's and 191 RBI's. How do you replace that? It certainly cannot be found in the system at present. The kids are just that--kids--and couldn't put up those numbers as we've seen with our best prospect in awhile--Jay Bruce. What do you do? You have to trade or go into free agency to replace Dunn especially if you let him walk. Junior is still productive at a rate that would also require the same scenario.

Without these two, even with improved pitching, we still are a losing club with slightly more revenue wiggle room. I don't like the idea of not signing Dunn one bit.

I see where you are coming from in that those numbers would be hard to replace. But I'd bet a savvy move in the offseason would easily replace Jr's numbers. Its unfair to Dunn to lump the 2 of them together like that.

WVRedsFan
07-23-2008, 11:57 PM
Should Jocketty trade him while his value is probably up?

I don't think so. He certainly will not bring back his replacement and adding another pitcher might be nice, but this team needs to score runs, which it is now doing thanks to Dunn. Today, he accounted for the winning margin. Will that happen with regularity without Dunn. The vast volume of evidence says no. Today, he and Junior scored 3 runs and batted in 6. Without them (and I know this doesn't account for what their replacements would do), we score 3 runs and lose 5-3.

I repeat...how do you replace that if Dunn is traded?

WVRedsFan
07-23-2008, 11:59 PM
I see where you are coming from in that those numbers would be hard to replace. But I'd bet a savvy move in the offseason would easily replace Jr's numbers. Its unfair to Dunn to lump the 2 of them together like that.

I agree, but finding an 80 RBI corner outfielder is a little tough to do. finding a 100-120 RBI outfielder is really tough to do.

I lump them together just to show how much offense they produce, but you are right. It might have been a better duo five years ago.

BuckeyeRedleg
07-24-2008, 12:17 AM
Resign Dunn now and sign Sabathia in FA.

Ownership would prove they are serious if they do just those two things this off-season.

1. Sabathia
2. Volquez
3. Harang
4. Cueto
5. Arroyo

Are you kidding me?

kaldaniels
07-24-2008, 12:27 AM
Resign Dunn now and sign Sabathia in FA.

Ownership would prove they are serious if they do just those two things this off-season.

1. Sabathia
2. Volquez
3. Harang
4. Cueto
5. Arroyo

Are you kidding me?

C.C's asking price is going up every 5 days here lately.

But that rotation gives me goosebumps.

remdog
07-24-2008, 12:30 AM
Dunn really has turned up the pressure on Walt.

Actually, I think that Dunn has really turned up the pressure on Bob. Castellini keeps saying he wants to win now. The odds of that happening decrease, IMO, if you let Dunn walk for draft picks.

Additionally, Bob controlls the purse strings---so what's it gonna be Bob? Dunn or Done (as in out of money)?

Rem

WVRedsFan
07-24-2008, 12:37 AM
Actually, I think that Dunn has really turned up the pressure on Bob. Castellini keeps saying he wants to win now. The odds of that happening decrease, IMO, if you let Dunn walk for draft picks.

Additionally, Bob controlls the purse strings---so what's it gonna be Bob? Dunn or Done (as in out of money)?

Rem

It's amazing how Dunn can, at times, carry this club on his shoulders. Dusty mentioned it today. He has the ability to do that and he's doing it right now. Arroyo had a good 7-inning outing (and except for one inning was brilliant--I had my radio with me to keep track at the minor league game mentioned elsewhere), but when the bullpen failed (not really failed, but allowed a couple of runs) Dunn's contributions look huge. Take away that GS, and were into the 9th with a 5-4 lead, the bases loaded and Coffey on the mound (heck, make that a tie game with his other RBI).

You have to score runs to win.

RedlegJake
07-24-2008, 07:13 AM
Dunn and EE are carrying the club. Dunn's bat is big enough when he is hot he only needs one other teammate to have a hot bat to make this offense look good. When Dunn is cold the offense struggles even when two or three of the other guys are hot. This is Adam Dunn's offense.

princeton
07-24-2008, 07:55 AM
Dunn really has turned up the pressure on Walt.

the calendar creates the pressure.

conversely, Dunn's performance has made Walt's job a lot easier.

if he wants to build around him, Cast is surely even more open to that; if he wants to sell him off, Adam's raising the rate of return

kudos to Adam

hebroncougar
07-24-2008, 08:13 AM
Resign Dunn now and sign Sabathia in FA.

Ownership would prove they are serious if they do just those two things this off-season.

1. Sabathia
2. Volquez
3. Harang
4. Cueto
5. Arroyo

Are you kidding me?

Looks like plan to me. You probably won't have to signifcantly raise Dunn's salary to get him to stay (5 years $70-75 million would get it done I would think), and I think the payroll will stay fairly stagnant with Griffey and some other vets coming off and Harang, Arroyo, etc. getting their raises. The question then becomes, will C.C. sign here, and will the Reds go 6-7 years and outbid teams like the Dodgers, Yanks, and Mets. It would go a long, long way towards creating a buzz and a hope for a playoff team next season.

Chip R
07-24-2008, 09:03 AM
Should Jocketty trade him while his value is probably up?


I doubt this hot stretch has convinced any GM that his value has increased. I also doubt that any cold streak he goes on lessens his value. If Dunn was worth a couple of AA pitchers 3 weeks ago, this hot streak isn't going to make him worth a #3 starter and the other team's top prospect.

RedLegSuperStar
07-24-2008, 09:03 AM
Looks like plan to me. You probably won't have to signifcantly raise Dunn's salary to get him to stay (5 years $70-75 million would get it done I would think), and I think the payroll will stay fairly stagnant with Griffey and some other vets coming off and Harang, Arroyo, etc. getting their raises. The question then becomes, will C.C. sign here, and will the Reds go 6-7 years and outbid teams like the Dodgers, Yanks, and Mets. It would go a long, long way towards creating a buzz and a hope for a playoff team next season.

Reds Free Agents '09:

Adam Dunn - LF - 13 Million
Ken Griffey Jr. - RF (Option / Buyout of 4 Million) - 12.5 Million
Corey Patterson - CF - 3 Million
Jeremy Affeldt - RP - 3 Million
David Weathers - RP - 2 Million
David Ross - C - 2 Million
Javy Valentin - C - 1.5 Million
Josh Fogg - SP - 1 Million
Jerry Hairston Jr. - SS/Utl. - 500,000
Paul Bako - C - 500,000

These plus payroll of Stanton, Castro, Hatteberg, and Mercker which is around 5 Million and you have around 40 million considering that the Reds buyout Griffey's option.

With raises coming for Harang, Arroyo, and Phillips which should be around 25 Million alone. You are looking at 15 Million to spend if the Reds intend to keep payroll around 75 Million. I'd at least re-sign Affeldt and Hairston and that should cost another 4-5 Million. So that leaves you with 10 Million and needing a C, CF, and LF.

hebroncougar
07-24-2008, 09:20 AM
Reds Free Agents '09:

Adam Dunn - LF - 13 Million
Ken Griffey Jr. - RF (Option / Buyout of 4 Million) - 12.5 Million
Corey Patterson - CF - 3 Million
Jeremy Affeldt - RP - 3 Million
David Weathers - RP - 2 Million
David Ross - C - 2 Million
Javy Valentin - C - 1.5 Million
Josh Fogg - SP - 1 Million
Jerry Hairston Jr. - SS/Utl. - 500,000
Paul Bako - C - 500,000

These plus payroll of Stanton, Castro, Hatteberg, and Mercker which is around 5 Million and you have around 40 million considering that the Reds buyout Griffey's option.

With raises coming for Harang, Arroyo, and Phillips which should be around 25 Million alone. You are looking at 15 Million to spend if the Reds intend to keep payroll around 75 Million. I'd at least re-sign Affeldt and Hairston and that should cost another 4-5 Million. So that leaves you with 10 Million and needing a C, CF, and LF.

So it would take at least a decent payroll bump.

Kc61
07-24-2008, 09:30 AM
the calendar creates the pressure.

conversely, Dunn's performance has made Walt's job a lot easier.

if he wants to build around him, Cast is surely even more open to that; if he wants to sell him off, Adam's raising the rate of return

kudos to Adam


If Dunn wasn't doing well this year, the decision would be easy. Let him walk. I think that was the likely outcome earlier in the season.

With Dunn's excellent year in 2007 and now this recent performance, Walt has a tougher decision to make.

1. Trade Dunn, likely not get big value (Dunn's a free agent with no-trade protections) and try to find a way to replace him with the payflex.

2. Bid for Dunn in free agency and risk arbitration -- and another one-year situation with Dunn -- and risk losing him for draft choices.

3. Tie up a huge amount of money for Dunn in a long term deal, maybe $75 or $80 million over five years which may prevent other transactions Walt envisions. If Walt is hamstrung by huge long-term contracts, how does he change a losing team?

Tough decisions for them. I do think the pressure is on.

princeton
07-24-2008, 09:42 AM
If Dunn wasn't doing well this year, the decision would be easy. Let him walk. I think that was the likely outcome earlier in the season.

With Dunn's excellent year in 2007 and now this recent performance, Walt has a tougher decision to make.

1. Trade Dunn, likely not get big value (Dunn's a free agent with no-trade protections) and try to find a way to replace him with the payflex.

2. Bid for Dunn in free agency and risk arbitration -- and another one-year situation with Dunn -- and risk losing him for draft choices.

3. Tie up a huge amount of money for Dunn in a long term deal, maybe $75 or $80 million over five years which may prevent other transactions Walt envisions. If Walt is hamstrung by huge long-term contracts, how does he change a losing team?

Tough decisions for them. I do think the pressure is on.


nah, it's easier. selling is easy. you identify a value, do NOT change that value even if player is hot or slumping, and challenge clubs to meet that value. and it's getting easier for them to meet it now. if they don't meet it, then it gets interesting.

last month, when he was hitting .100 over a few weeks and the offers were to take his contract for nothing -- now THAT was difficult.

interesting situation with Arroyo, though-- teams might be offering a lot more than his actual value to the Reds. That gets tempting.

Kc61
07-24-2008, 10:04 AM
nah, it's easier. selling is easy. you identify a value, do NOT change that value even if player is hot or slumping, and challenge clubs to meet that value. and it's getting easier for them to meet it now. if they don't meet it, then it gets interesting.

last month, when he was hitting .100 over a few weeks and the offers were to take his contract for nothing -- now THAT was difficult.

interesting situation with Arroyo, though-- teams might be offering a lot more than his actual value to the Reds. That gets tempting.

The problem is getting that value in a trade. It's a rental. It's not a CC Sabathia, a dominant starting pitcher. Dunn has his detractors as a player. And he's got that limited no-trade clause so there are only a number of potential suitors. (If one of his "no-trade" teams makes an offer, Dunn will likely demand some extra dough for the deal to happen, complicating things more.)

I'm skeptical that Dunn's streak is resulting in the kind of big time offers that would make Walt's life easy. My hunch is that he's still being offered discounted value, with no major prospects and no highly touted young major leaguers.

If I'm right -- and obviously I'm guessing -- it's much harder to trade Dunn now because Walt will be skewered for casting a hot-hitting Dunn off for a middling return. If I'm wrong and serious offers are coming in, then Walt will have some good alternatives.

The sense I'm getting, by the way, is that the Reds won't trade Dunn because they want to have a winning season. Whatever the merits of this approach, I look for them to be buyers at this deadline -- with any trade contributing to the current major league team in some way. And with Dunn's future to be determined later on.

Spring~Fields
07-24-2008, 12:22 PM
...and in the NL

OPS-8th
OBP-11th
SLG-12th

and for you "old school" types
11th in RBI

I like the new version of Dunn, it looks good on him. :)

July 2008 Adam Dunn


BA OBP SLG OPS
.305 .403 .780 1.182

RedsManRick
07-24-2008, 12:36 PM
Dunn's OBI&#37; (% of runners on base batted in) is up to 16.8%.

Here are the Reds regulars (250+ PA):
1. Dunn .168
2. Phillips .153
3. Keppinger .151
4. Griffey Jr .149
5. Votto .142
6. Encarnacion .097

EE really surprises me. I'm not familiar enough with OBI% to know when it stabilizes, so it's hard to say this represent a skill. He's really struggled getting guys in from 1B and 3B. The latter makes sense given his pop-up proclivities. By comparison, Phillips leads the team in R3BI%, due to his high ground ball tendencies. Dunn and Junior both excel at R1BI%.

Hairston leads all Reds at 20.6%. Patterson is the worst at 9.2%.

Just having some fun with my favorite stat of the moment.

Cyclone792
07-24-2008, 01:04 PM
Dunn's OBI% (% of runners on base batted in) is up to 16.8%.

Here are the Reds regulars (250+ PA):
1. Dunn .168
2. Phillips .153
3. Keppinger .151
4. Griffey Jr .149
5. Votto .142
6. Encarnacion .097

EE really surprises me. I'm not familiar enough with OBI% to know when it stabilizes, so it's hard to say this represent a skill. He's really struggled getting guys in from 1B and 3B. The latter makes sense given his pop-up proclivities. By comparison, Phillips leads the team in R3BI%, due to his high ground ball tendencies. Dunn and Junior both excel at R1BI%.

Hairston leads all Reds at 20.6%. Patterson is the worst at 9.2%.

Just having some fun with my favorite stat of the moment.

I'm not surprised at all with EE's numbers. My guess is a significant percentage of the baserunners on base when EE is up is Adam Dunn standing on first base, and the only way to score Adam Dunn from first base in GABP is to hit the ball out of the park. Otherwise he's likely only going to third, even on an EE double.

One side effect of GABP that's often lost is it will suppress the number of baserunners who can score from first on a double. Phillips and Patterson are pretty much the only guys who can do it in GABP; put the Reds in a home park where the outfield is bigger and the fences are a bit deeper and guys like Dunn will be able to score from first on gap shots and down the line shots with a little more regularity.

RedsManRick
07-24-2008, 01:13 PM
I agree Cyclone. That was my thought as well. Meanwhile, Dunn is driving in guys with HR or is more likely to have a speedier guy on 1B.

Here's a bit more data. It's incredible how many more opportunities Phillips has had with guys on 1B. Though he probably has the same problem EE has. Junior isn't scoring from 1B unless the ball clears the wall.



# NAME R1 R1_BI R1BI&#37; R2 R2_BI R2BI% R3 R3_BI R3BI% ROB OBI OBI%
1 Dunn 98 11 11.2% 83 11 13.3% 50 17 34.0% 231 39 16.9%
2 Phillips 147 5 3.4% 92 16 17.4% 62 25 40.3% 301 46 15.3%
3 Keppinger 71 2 2.8% 46 9 19.6% 29 11 37.9% 146 22 15.1%
4 Griffey Jr. 114 12 10.5% 82 11 13.4% 45 13 28.9% 241 36 14.9%
5 Votto 116 7 6.0% 70 11 15.7% 33 13 39.4% 219 31 14.2%
6 Encarnacion 123 4 3.3% 63 8 12.7% 40 10 25.0% 226 22 9.7%

Cyclone792
07-24-2008, 01:17 PM
I agree Cyclone. That was my thought as well. Meanwhile, Dunn is driving in guys with HR or is more likely to have a speedier guy on 1B.

Here's a bit more data. It's incredible how many more opportunities Phillips has had with guys on 1B. Though he probably has the same problem EE has. Junior isn't scoring from 1B unless the ball clears the wall.



# NAME R1 R1_BI R1BI% R2 R2_BI R2BI% R3 R3_BI R3BI% ROB OBI OBI%
1 Dunn 98 11 11.2% 83 11 13.3% 50 17 34.0% 231 39 16.9%
2 Phillips 147 5 3.4% 92 16 17.4% 62 25 40.3% 301 46 15.3%
3 Keppinger 71 2 2.8% 46 9 19.6% 29 11 37.9% 146 22 15.1%
4 Griffey Jr. 114 12 10.5% 82 11 13.4% 45 13 28.9% 241 36 14.9%
5 Votto 116 7 6.0% 70 11 15.7% 33 13 39.4% 219 31 14.2%
6 Encarnacion 123 4 3.3% 63 8 12.7% 40 10 25.0% 226 22 9.7%


Couple interesting numbers caught my eye: baserunners on first base for Adam Dunn and Jeff Keppinger.

That right there is a massive indictment of Dusty Baker, Corey Patterson, and Brandon Phillips. Baker kept using Patterson to lead off in front of Keppinger, and Patterson couldn't ever get on base. Baker keeps batting Phillips in front of Dunn, and Phillips can't get on base.

RedsManRick
07-24-2008, 01:50 PM
Couple interesting numbers caught my eye: baserunners on first base for Adam Dunn and Jeff Keppinger.

That right there is a massive indictment of Dusty Baker, Corey Patterson, and Brandon Phillips. Baker kept using Patterson to lead off in front of Keppinger, and Patterson couldn't ever get on base. Baker keeps batting Phillips in front of Dunn, and Phillips can't get on base.

And what's frustrating is that is the guy on the team most likely to either plate that runner on 1B himself or to walk and put the guy in classic "scoring position". Phillips and Dunn back to back isn't a bad idea. Dusty just has them in the wrong order.

Spring~Fields
07-24-2008, 02:35 PM
Couple interesting numbers caught my eye: baserunners on first base for Adam Dunn and Jeff Keppinger.

That right there is a massive indictment of Dusty Baker, Corey Patterson, and Brandon Phillips. Baker kept using Patterson to lead off in front of Keppinger, and Patterson couldn't ever get on base. Baker keeps batting Phillips in front of Dunn, and Phillips can't get on base.

Lineups don't matter I thought ? ;)

Highlifeman21
07-24-2008, 04:47 PM
Patterson and Phillips would both have more value if they could steal first base.

Spring~Fields
07-24-2008, 10:11 PM
Patterson and Phillips would both have more value if they could steal first base.

My money is on Phillips stealing first base, as he sometimes catches them napping and steals third right after taking second base. Patterson on the other hand seems to have a powerful aversion to first base.

fearofpopvol1
07-24-2008, 10:18 PM
My money is on Phillips stealing first base, as he sometimes catches them napping and steals third right after taking second base. Patterson on the other hand seems to have a powerful aversion to first base.

If I'm not mistaken, he was making a joke referring to to both players' getting to 1B (a la the steal)...

Spring~Fields
07-24-2008, 10:50 PM
If I'm not mistaken, he was making a joke referring to to both players' getting to 1B (a la the steal)...

That's pretty much the way I saw it too. :lol:

fearofpopvol1, are you a big Patterson fan?

fearofpopvol1
07-25-2008, 10:06 AM
That's pretty much the way I saw it too. :lol:

fearofpopvol1, are you a big Patterson fan?

No

KronoRed
07-25-2008, 01:10 PM
Good, if so you would have to walk the plank.