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Reds1
07-20-2008, 01:11 AM
Was the top pitcher on Baseball Tonights segment called - It's Nasty showing the big strike out that saved the game. He was awesome tonight and lately. Great win. Should have been a sweep, but 2-3 vs hot Mets and the pitching we faced the Reds will take it.

I'm going Monday. Excited to see them play right now. In the Diamond Seats for the 1st time no less.

Night

WVRedsFan
07-20-2008, 01:17 AM
Was the top pitcher on Baseball Tonights segment called - It's Nasty showing the big strike out that saved the game. He was awesome tonight and lately. Great win. Should have been a sweep, but 2-3 vs hot Mets and the pitching we faced the Reds will take it.

I'm going Monday. Excited to see them play right now. In the Diamond Seats for the 1st time no less.

Night

Diamond seats? Not fair. You must have more money than the law allows. :)

Just saw that. The gang on BBTN were very complimentarily. They even said that Brandon Phillips was the best 2nd baseman in the league, but that was Eduardo, and he may be prejudiced.

Homer Bailey
07-20-2008, 01:18 AM
Was the top pitcher on Baseball Tonights segment called - It's Nasty showing the big strike out that saved the game. He was awesome tonight and lately. Great win. Should have been a sweep, but 2-3 vs hot Mets and the pitching we faced the Reds will take it.

I'm going Monday. Excited to see them play right now. In the Diamond Seats for the 1st time no less.

Night

Wouldn't have been a sweep seeing as how they are playing the 4th game of the series tomorrow. Or you are just really confident in tomorrow's game, but I agree they obviously should have won game one. The Reds are playing solid baseball right now.

VR
07-20-2008, 01:23 AM
[As recorded by Commander Cody and His Lost Planet Airmen]

My pappy said, "Son, you're gonna' drive me to drinkin'
If you don't stop drivin' that Hot Rod Lincoln"

RedsManRick
07-20-2008, 02:25 AM
Lincoln, Weathers, and Affeldt have all pitched well enough to garner attention of GMs looking for help. I'd be disappointed if at least 2 of the 3 aren't gone in the next 12 days.

Caveat Emperor
07-20-2008, 02:48 AM
Lincoln, Weathers, and Affeldt have all pitched well enough to garner attention of GMs looking for help. I'd be disappointed if at least 2 of the 3 aren't gone in the next 12 days.

Taking 3 of 4 from the Mets isn't going to go a long way towards convincing Castellini that the team needs to be in sell-off mode.

Reds1
07-20-2008, 08:05 AM
Diamond seats? Not fair. You must have more money than the law allows. :)

Just saw that. The gang on BBTN were very complimentarily. They even said that Brandon Phillips was the best 2nd baseman in the league, but that was Eduardo, and he may be prejudiced.

Actually, these tickets are a gift from a friend who has more money than the law allows. I also heard the Phillips comment. I thought I'd see one of his plays on webgems, but there was some good ones tonight and the great play he made didn't get the guy out, but did save a run.

Sorry, I forgot there was a 4th game today, but with Volquez I guess I am confident we can win this one.

Highlifeman21
07-20-2008, 08:13 AM
Taking 3 of 4 from the Mets isn't going to go a long way towards convincing Castellini that the team needs to be in sell-off mode.

Sneaking up on .500 is the last thing this club needs. Pretty soon, it'll start to feel like 2006 all over again, where we're really not in it, but pretending like Hell.

Hopefully Cast and Jocketty realize that we're still not a good ballclub, and we do need to be in sell mode, and buy mode should be the last thing in their minds.

redsmetz
07-20-2008, 08:22 AM
How frustrating. Our relief pitchers perform admirably, doing the jobs we expect them to and the "No Joy in Mudville" crowd can't wait to continue their "Blow It Up!" campaign. I'm sorry, but I'm not interested in the constant tear it down mode that's become business as usual in these parts. The world is not black and white; clubs aren't just buyers or sellers. I'm not saying don't trade anybody, but it just drives me mad on this board that anytime we've got some success, we're bemoaning the fact that Bob Castellini will get all stupid on us and not sell off this team so we can start back at square one. I better stop now before I go off the deep end.

Very nice job by Mike Lincoln, who got a poor mark on that mid-season report card that didn't seem to be watching very closely. Lincoln's been pretty good this year. A very nice pick up by the front office.

paulrichjr
07-20-2008, 10:13 AM
I keep thinking about the Rockies from 2007....Why can't this team sneak in? This team plays every team that is good very very tough. Look at the Mets, Yanks, D-Backs, Brewers...etc. I for one aren't ready to throw in the towel. That being said...if the next 2 weeks are awful then sell on the last couple of days.

westofyou
07-20-2008, 10:43 AM
Sneaking up on .500 is the last thing this club needs. Pretty soon, it'll start to feel like 2006 all over again, where we're really not in it, but pretending like Hell.



Right... because actually winning baseball games is not the goal.

I could care less what they do if they feel like it's 2006, 1936 or 1976, I just want the Reds to win games.

KoryMac5
07-20-2008, 12:11 PM
I think you could deal a few guys and still be competitive. JR, Ross, and maybe Weathers or Arroyo could net a few mid level prospects while not gutting the team. Every year it does seem like we are at a crossroads though on whether we should fish or cut bait.

SMcGavin
07-20-2008, 12:25 PM
Lincoln has been a pleasant suprise. Reds bullpen has a 3.55 ERA, that's fourth best in the National League. Remember all the threads about how bad it supposedly was earlier in the season?

Sell the guys who could help somebody this year but likely won't help the Reds next year (Weathers, Affeldt). Keep the guys who will help the team in 09 (Arroyo, Ross).

Kc61
07-20-2008, 12:32 PM
Lincoln has been a pleasant suprise. Reds bullpen has a 3.55 ERA, that's fourth best in the National League. Remember all the threads about how bad it supposedly was earlier in the season?

Sell the guys who could help somebody this year but likely won't help the Reds next year (Weathers, Affeldt). Keep the guys who will help the team in 09 (Arroyo, Ross).


I would trade Affeldt and Weathers. I wouldn't trade Lincoln.

Weathers is a free agent, won't be re-signed, may even stop playing, he can help a contender and maybe pitch in the playoffs.

Affeldt has a great arm but isn't lights out. Lefties have trade value. He'll probably want a long term deal after this season, don't see the Reds keeping him.

Lincoln has a great arm and is very successful here. Probably doesn't have great trade value since he doesn't have a long track record of success. Hold him for next year. Unless he gets hurt or suffers a downturn, he'll help again in 2009.

Falls City Beer
07-20-2008, 12:41 PM
The problem with trading more than one reliever is that 1. the return is seldom very high for a reliever (usually AA or lower prospect) 2. with all the kids (and last-gaspers like Fogg) in the Reds' rotation, they're going to need warm bodies to throw innings in meaningless games in September, instead of burning up good arms like Cueto's and Volquez's. The Reds don't really have any serviceable arms in AAA to bring up to fill holes left by Lincoln and Weathers (and no I don't mean a guy who's struggling right now in AAA like Roenicke), but a guy like a Ryan Franklin or Chris Reitsma or Coffey (who's already here).

I think the better strategy is to trade a starter.

Highlifeman21
07-20-2008, 12:49 PM
Right... because actually winning baseball games is not the goal.

I could care less what they do if they feel like it's 2006, 1936 or 1976, I just want the Reds to win games.

I want the Reds to win, but I want them to win when they have the necessary means to sustain winning.

Right now, it's smoke and mirrors winning. There's very little in terms of winning long-term given this current roster.

nate
07-20-2008, 01:01 PM
[As recorded by Commander Cody and His Lost Planet Airmen]

My pappy said, "Son, you're gonna' drive me to drinkin'
If you don't stop drivin' that Hot Rod Lincoln"

That's a great old tune.

Lincoln and Affeldt baffle me sometimes because they have good and similar stuff. Both can throw heat and both have nice curveballs. I guess it's just a matter of control and location as to why they haven't had more success.

I'd love to see Herrera back up here. Throw him out there after any one of the starters and then come back with Hot Rod or Affeldt. Seems like it would really screw up the opposing hitters.

fearofpopvol1
07-20-2008, 01:05 PM
The problem with trading more than one reliever is that 1. the return is seldom very high for a reliever (usually AA or lower prospect) 2. with all the kids (and last-gaspers like Fogg) in the Reds' rotation, they're going to need warm bodies to throw innings in meaningless games in September, instead of burning up good arms like Cueto's and Volquez's. The Reds don't really have any serviceable arms in AAA to bring up to fill holes left by Lincoln and Weathers (and no I don't mean a guy who's struggling right now in AAA like Roenicke), but a guy like a Ryan Franklin or Chris Reitsma or Coffey (who's already here).

I think the better strategy is to trade a starter.

I sort of agree with this. I would still try to move Weathers though because of his age and the likeliness that he is going to continue to regress. Fogg would be a good choice, but I don't think he brings you much. Arroyo is the obvious guy to move I think, but as I've previously said, I don't want to just give him away for nothing. The Reds need to garner some sort of return.

westofyou
07-20-2008, 01:08 PM
I want the Reds to win, but I want them to win when they have the necessary means to sustain winning.



I just want them to win..... always.

Funny how anyone could think otherwise.

Tony Cloninger
07-20-2008, 02:07 PM
Some people want them to win on their terms....winning in a boring manner...by mirrors...with an older club...just does not appeal to most of these people.

They have more of a mix of younger players....with a brighter future....but they would rather win with the players coming up than the ones they have now.
I can understand wanting to trade one of the 3.....but not all of them.

I am also with FCB.....Josh Roenicke...is not as ready as several people seem to think he is, mainly on the ML board.

mth123
07-20-2008, 02:10 PM
The problem with trading more than one reliever is that 1. the return is seldom very high for a reliever (usually AA or lower prospect) 2. with all the kids (and last-gaspers like Fogg) in the Reds' rotation, they're going to need warm bodies to throw innings in meaningless games in September, instead of burning up good arms like Cueto's and Volquez's. The Reds don't really have any serviceable arms in AAA to bring up to fill holes left by Lincoln and Weathers (and no I don't mean a guy who's struggling right now in AAA like Roenicke), but a guy like a Ryan Franklin or Chris Reitsma or Coffey (who's already here).

I think the better strategy is to trade a starter.

Don't completely disagree, but they're chock full of AAAA type arms and guys to audition to pitch those innings. Majewski, Coffey, McBeth, Belisle, Pelland, Herrera, Livingston, maybe Fisher, Maloney, Viola, Thompson etc. I'd be looking to deal Weathers and Affeldt from the pen and Fogg would be a starter I'd dangle for sure. As for the return, the team should really target a few specific needs and include some kids along with the penant race help to get it. For example, If the Angels need a lefty for the pen, maybe Affeldt alone won't get a Reggie Willits back to fill the specific 2009 CF/Lead-off spot, but maybe they'd deal him for the immediate help plus a Juan Francisco or a Travis Wood. I'd be pairing all three of the vet pitchers with a kid or two and I'd be looking for athletic CF who can get on base, athletic SS who can get on base, catcher who isn't a complete dunderhead.

RedsManRick
07-20-2008, 02:12 PM
The problem with trading more than one reliever is that 1. the return is seldom very high for a reliever (usually AA or lower prospect) 2. with all the kids (and last-gaspers like Fogg) in the Reds' rotation, they're going to need warm bodies to throw innings in meaningless games in September, instead of burning up good arms like Cueto's and Volquez's. The Reds don't really have any serviceable arms in AAA to bring up to fill holes left by Lincoln and Weathers (and no I don't mean a guy who's struggling right now in AAA like Roenicke), but a guy like a Ryan Franklin or Chris Reitsma or Coffey (who's already here).

I think the better strategy is to trade a starter.

We have warm bodies, that's not the problem. Todd Coffey, Marcus McBeth, Jon Adkins, Matt Belisle, and Adam Pettyjohn.

No, the problem is that trading those guys away and using some of the aforementioned AAAA types is you are tacitly admitting you aren't doing everything in your power to win now. And we know that wouldn't fly. There's no shortage of fringe relievers in the game of baseball.

If you can get value for FA-to-be relief in a non-winning season, you'd be pretty stupid to choose not to. I never said I'd just flip a reliever, but a trade for Dunn or Junior would probably be more palatable if he came paired with David Weathers or Jeremy Affeldt.

Falls City Beer
07-20-2008, 02:19 PM
Those AAAA types like McBeth et al are far more of a dropoff from Affeldt and Weathers than most of you are willing to admit.

I'm not saying don't trade a reliever (either alone or in a package), but I am saying don't think there's anyone capable of retiring MLB hitters in the Reds' minors. Sure there are human, breathing entities in the minors, but none of them are likely even mop-up worthy.

The Reds would have to get a Brocail or a Shoeneweis-type in return in one of the deals trading away a Weathers or an Affeldt.

It's either watch McBeth surrender HR after HR, unable to close out any inning, necessitating keeping starters like Cueto and Volquez longer than they should be in, or keep some of the viable relievers around and let them walk as FA, get the draft compensation instead.

SMcGavin
07-20-2008, 02:23 PM
The problem with trading more than one reliever is that 1. the return is seldom very high for a reliever (usually AA or lower prospect) 2. with all the kids (and last-gaspers like Fogg) in the Reds' rotation, they're going to need warm bodies to throw innings in meaningless games in September, instead of burning up good arms like Cueto's and Volquez's. The Reds don't really have any serviceable arms in AAA to bring up to fill holes left by Lincoln and Weathers (and no I don't mean a guy who's struggling right now in AAA like Roenicke), but a guy like a Ryan Franklin or Chris Reitsma or Coffey (who's already here).

I think the better strategy is to trade a starter.

Josh Roenicke has 19 K and 3 BB in 20.1 AAA innings. I don't really know what you're talking about. His ERA is 2.66.

And as others have said the Reds have plenty of chaff to fill innings. Belisle, Coffey, McBeth, Livingston. Those are all arms who are above the level of complete junk (like a Shearn, Pettyjohn, etc). I'm fine with keeping Affeldt/Weathers if you can't get a halfway decent prospect for them so I understand your first point, but don't know where you're coming from on #2.

RedsManRick
07-20-2008, 02:28 PM
Those AAAA types like McBeth et al are far more of a dropoff from Affeldt and Weathers than most of you are willing to admit.

Who cares? So we win 76 games instead of 79. This team isn't winning anything this year. But trading those guys to strengthen the organization for the future would be a positive step. Wasting a chance to capitalize on the value generated by those guys in the name of being marginally better in 2008 is just that, a waste. That's the point.

The difference between the A's and teams like the Reds, Pirates, and Royals is that the latter three are obsessed with saving face while struggling to build a .500 squad. They're like the out of shape person who would rather wear baggy clothes and order the small frosty rather than be seen at the gym and have to deal with their problem in public.

Falls City Beer
07-20-2008, 02:29 PM
Who cares? This team isn't winning anything this year.

I do. I want the Reds to be able to go easy on Volquez and Cueto in September.

RedsManRick
07-20-2008, 02:46 PM
I do. I want the Reds to be able to go easy on Volquez and Cueto in September.

They will be able to go easy on them regardless of who's in the pen. I suppose the question is whether they're willing. A team out of the running who pushes their young pitchers because of the quality of the relievers is just stupid. No two ways about it. If we have to have Weathers/Affeldt/Lincoln back there because Dusty would rather abuse Cueto/Volquez than go to somebody else, then the problem is with Dusty.

And if we can't improve the organization because of Dusty's inability to utilize his 25 man roster appropriately, that's a BIG problem. And as I think you intimate, Dusty has a history of putting the short term priority of winning a given ballgame over the long term priority of keeping young pitchers healthy by not overworking them.

mth123
07-20-2008, 03:07 PM
Those AAAA types like McBeth et al are far more of a dropoff from Affeldt and Weathers than most of you are willing to admit.

I'm not saying don't trade a reliever (either alone or in a package), but I am saying don't think there's anyone capable of retiring MLB hitters in the Reds' minors. Sure there are human, breathing entities in the minors, but none of them are likely even mop-up worthy.

The Reds would have to get a Brocail or a Shoeneweis-type in return in one of the deals trading away a Weathers or an Affeldt.

It's either watch McBeth surrender HR after HR, unable to close out any inning, necessitating keeping starters like Cueto and Volquez longer than they should be in, or keep some of the viable relievers around and let them walk as FA, get the draft compensation instead.

I agree that they're a drop-off. That's why Affeldt and Weathers have a little trade value. If you can get something that can be useful in the future, it almost has to be done at this point. Assuming Burton comes back, the Reds have 4 pretty decent options in Cordero, Burton, Lincoln and Bray. Giving Roenicke a try for a while should probably be part of the plan for 2009 anyhow. I'd agree that the team should keep Lincoln. Dealing Affeldt is a little problematic because I'm not convinced that Herrera is a good option but with the heat that Cueto, Volquez, Burton, Roenicke and Lincoln throw, a soft tossing lefty with a trick pitch might keep hitters off balance. No reason with expanded rosters in September that anyone needs to be overworked unless its pure negligence on behalf of the Manager, Pitching Coach and the GM who lets them do it.

Falls City Beer
07-20-2008, 04:25 PM
They will be able to go easy on them regardless of who's in the pen. I suppose the question is whether they're willing. A team out of the running who pushes their young pitchers because of the quality of the relievers is just stupid. No two ways about it. If we have to have Weathers/Affeldt/Lincoln back there because Dusty would rather abuse Cueto/Volquez than go to somebody else, then the problem is with Dusty.

And if we can't improve the organization because of Dusty's inability to utilize his 25 man roster appropriately, that's a BIG problem. And as I think you intimate, Dusty has a history of putting the short term priority of winning a given ballgame over the long term priority of keeping young pitchers healthy by not overworking them.

Any manager in baseball would let a guy go an inning longer if it meant not getting repeatedly drubbed. Pitcher exhaustion is cyclical. It's not as easy as saying, "Oh well, let's just take Volquez out after 4 innings--it shouldn't matter if all the guys who'll pitch today just pitched more than one inning last night."

In the end, you simply have to have pitchers on your roster that can record outs against major leaguers. Shipping out three relievers for returns like Thompson, Elizardo, or a hitter with a bench ceiling is simply robbing Peter to pay Paul.

I have no problem with attaching one reliever to a big haul kind of deal in order to sweeten the pot; I'm against simply "parting" the bullpen like an old car. Diminishing returns.

RedsManRick
07-20-2008, 04:47 PM
Any manager in baseball would let a guy go an inning longer if it meant not getting repeatedly drubbed. Pitcher exhaustion is cyclical. It's not as easy as saying, "Oh well, let's just take Volquez out after 4 innings--it shouldn't matter if all the guys who'll pitched today just pitched more than one inning last night."

If Volquez needs to be taken out it's because of how he's pitching, not because of who's available to replace him. If he's done in the 4th, he's done in the 4th. Any manager who wants to keep his job will avoid abusing and misusing his team's most valuable assets.




In the end, you simply have to have pitchers on your roster that can record outs against major leaguers. Shipping out three relievers for returns like Thompson, Elizardo, or a hitter with a bench ceiling is simply robbing Peter to pay Paul.

Matt Belisle and Todd Coffey are two guys who, while not great, are hardly black holes incapable of getting outs.

Falls City Beer
07-20-2008, 04:49 PM
If Volquez needs to be taken out it's because of how he's pitching, not because of who's available to replace him. If he's done in the 4th, he's done in the 4th. Any manager who wants to keep his job will avoid abusing and misusing his team's most valuable assets.



Matt Belisle and Todd Coffey are two guys who, while not great, are hardly black holes incapable of getting outs.

At last blush, Belisle and Coffey were about as useless as two pitchers could possibly be. They made Josh Fogg look like Smoltz circa 1995.

RedsManRick
07-20-2008, 05:04 PM
At last blush, Belisle and Coffey were about as useless as two pitchers could possibly be. They made Josh Fogg look like Smoltz circa 1995.

We'll have to agree to disagree that Fogg is a better pitcher than Belisle or Coffey.

Caveat Emperor
07-20-2008, 06:39 PM
I do. I want the Reds to be able to go easy on Volquez and Cueto in September.

Hell, I want the Reds to go easy on the pair of them in July and August as well.

That doesn't happen if the bullpen is full of gas-cans and kids that Dusty doesn't or refuses to trust. Pitch counts start to creep when the manager feels the need to coax one more hitter or one more inning out of a pitcher to try and get the ball to the 8th.

remdog
07-27-2008, 12:03 AM
How frustrating....the "No Joy in Mudville" crowd can't wait to continue their "Blow It Up!" campaign.Yes, it is frustrating....the Reds are 2-4 since that post but some folks keep their head buried in the sand.

Reality....what a concept.

Rem

fearofpopvol1
07-27-2008, 01:24 AM
Mike Lincoln has been pretty damn good this season

corkedbat
07-27-2008, 12:13 PM
i'd like to see a bullpen of Cordero, Burton, Affeldt, Lincoln, Bray, Roenicke and Herrera, but alot depends on what Affeldt and Lincoln cost to re-sign. One year at a reasonable rate is fine, a three-year "Krivsky special" is not.