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View Full Version : Weathers, Affeldt, Lincoln-What would they bring in trade?



Spitball
07-20-2008, 06:13 PM
I looked at late season (July and later) trades from 2005 and 2006 in which relief pitchers were traded to contenders. I looked at those two years to judge the likely market. I didn't look at 2007 because there hasn't been enough time to judge those trades...and I just realized Jeff Francis is in town pitching a rehab start at 6:00 and I've gotta' run! I probably missed a few and left out the Kearns trade to avoid that argument for the umpteenth time.

Anyway, do middle relievers bring excellent returns? I'm not so sure.

2005

Kyle Farnsworth traded by Detroit Tigers to Atlanta Braves for Roman Colon and Zach Miner.

RHP Shawn Chacon, Colorado traded to Yankees for RHP Eduardo Sierra, Trenton (AA) and RHP Ramon Ramirez.


RHP Tim Worrell traded by Philly to Arizona for Matt Kata, Tucson (AAA)

Chad Bradford by A's traded to Boston for Jay Payton.


Mike Stanton traded by Washington to Boston for Rhys Taylor, GCL Red Sox (R) and RHP Yader Peralta, Lowell (SS)

2006


LHP Scott Schoeneweis traded to Cincy for 3B/2B Trevor Lawhorn, Sarasota (Hi A)

RHP Jeremy Affeldt, Kansas City and RHP Denny Bautista, Omaha (AAA) to Colorado for 1B Ryan Shealy, Colorado and RHP Scott Dohmann, Colo. Springs (AAA)


LHP Oliver Perez, Indianapolis (AAA) and RHP Roberto Hernandez traded by Pittsburgh to Mets for OF Xavier Nady.


LHP Rheal Cormier traded by Philadelphia to Reds for RHP Justin Germano, Louisville (AAA)


LHP Mike Stanton trade by Washington to Giants for RHP Shairon Martis, Augusta (Lo A)

RHP Elmer Dessens trade by Kansas City to Dodgers for LHP Odalis Perez, Los Angeles (NL), RHP Blake Johnson, Vero Beach (Hi A), and RHP Julio Pimentel, Vero Beach (Hi A)

RHP Mike MacDougal traded by Kansas City to White Sox for LHP Tyler Lumsden, Birmingham (AA) and RHP Daniel Cortes, Kannapolis (Lo A)

RHP Scott Williamson traded by Cubs to Padres for RHP Joel Santo, Fort Wayne (Lo A) and LHP Fabian Jimenez, Fort Wayne (Lo A)

RHP Bob Wickman trade by Cleveland to Braves for C Maximiliano Ramirez, Rome (Lo A)

edabbs44
07-20-2008, 07:15 PM
Probably not much.

Joseph
07-20-2008, 07:16 PM
We'll likely trade a couple of them for a AA player that won't pan out, but will bring excitement and optimism that we've done the right thing.

edabbs44
07-20-2008, 07:18 PM
We'll likely trade a couple of them for a AA player that won't pan out, but will bring excitement and optimism that we've done the right thing.

Unless one of them will bring DPs in 2009, it will be the right thing.

Falls City Beer
07-20-2008, 09:14 PM
I agree Spitball. Unless a reliever can be coupled with a high profile player to net a bigger return, I'm not all that sold on the notion of breaking this club apart like a handwarmed Hershey bar.

I'd rather have the FA draft compensation.

HokieRed
07-20-2008, 10:51 PM
At this point, I hope Lincoln is back next year and if he can be gotten on a one year deal for a million or so I think you've got to look carefully at resigning Weathers. Affeldt is simply overpaid. I'd move him if possible ASAP.

Spitball
07-21-2008, 12:45 AM
I agree Spitball. Unless a reliever can be coupled with a high profile player to net a bigger return, I'm not all that sold on the notion of breaking this club apart like a handwarmed Hershey bar.

I'd rather have the FA draft compensation.

Exactly, why trade away Weathers, Affeldt, or Lincoln for luke-warm prospects who will never make an impact on the major league team? Teams won't give up top prospects for middle relievers.

BTW, Jeff Francis was not too impressive tonight. He had little movement on his pitches and topped out at 89 maybe three times. Troy Tulowitzki played short and hit the ball pretty hard every time up but was the victim of pretty good defense. Tony Blanco played third for Tulsa but made two errors but had a couple of hits.

WVRedsFan
07-21-2008, 01:12 AM
[QUOTE=Spitball;1698895]Exactly, why trade away Weathers, Affeldt, or Lincoln for luke-warm prospects who will never make an impact on the major league team? Teams won't give up top prospects for middle relievers.[QUOTE]

I attend to agree. I know that all three have been effective this year in spots, so why buy a pig in a poke? Of course , the money matters, but I imagine Jocketty is a little better with that than the former GM. We'll see.

Topcat
07-21-2008, 03:18 AM
I agree Spitball. Unless a reliever can be coupled with a high profile player to net a bigger return, I'm not all that sold on the notion of breaking this club apart like a handwarmed Hershey bar.

I'd rather have the FA draft compensation.

That sir I so agree with you on. if the return offers a possibility of a catcher in exchange for Weathers you take it . otherwise take the draft picks.:thumbup:

WebScorpion
07-21-2008, 08:25 AM
The absolute top you can hope for is a super utility player in training. A guy who's ceiling will be Keppinger. Another Freel, Hairston, Hopper, Cabrera... personally, I'd stick with the middle relief and hope for draft choices next spring.

PuffyPig
07-21-2008, 09:26 AM
I'd rather have the FA draft compensation.

Lincoln won't bring anyone.

Affeldt and Weatherts might (especially Weathers) but I wouldn't want to risk arbitration with either.

Falls City Beer
07-21-2008, 10:06 AM
Lincoln won't bring anyone.

Affeldt and Weatherts might (especially Weathers) but I wouldn't want to risk arbitration with either.

I understand that Lincoln won't.

I'd risk arb with both the other two.

PuffyPig
07-21-2008, 10:55 AM
I understand that Lincoln won't.

I'd risk arb with both the other two.


We might well get Weathers basck for one year at $5M+. His stats and saves over the last two years would add up to alot of money. He would make more in arbitration than he would get on the open market, plus a team signing him would have to sacrifice their first or second round pick. That would scare off may a potential signor, and leave him squarely back with us for way more than we want to spend.

HokieRed
07-21-2008, 11:16 AM
Agree with Puffy. No way I go arb. with Weathers. Probably means we should move him now and take a little more risk in the deal. Go farther down in somebody' s system for a guy with some issues but more upside. I agree we don't need anymore Freel, Hopper etc. types.

Kc61
07-21-2008, 11:20 AM
Affeldt has a great arm but he's not a lights out reliever. I wouldn't go to arbitration with him, I'd trade him to a contender. Lefties with good arms should have trade value.

Weathers isn't going to be with the Reds next year, I'd trade him for some value.

I wouldn't trade either for nothing.

I would keep Lincoln. His performance is far better than his trade value is likely to be. I wouldn't mind him as a sixth-seventh inning guy next year at a reasonable price. He's been lights out of late, by the way, and I'd ride the hot hand with him. He has an excellent two pitch fastball, curve ball combination right now.

RedlegJake
07-21-2008, 11:40 AM
There is one window to trade a middle reliever for a decent return. That's right now, before the deadline, to a contender with a suspect pen. In the off season I agree middle relievers don't bring anything. Weathers could and should be moved. Probably Affeldt, too but I might risk arb with him. Lincoln is probably worth more to the club than what he'd bring on the market. He is starting to look very impressive and should have another year left in his tank.

Will M
07-21-2008, 11:48 AM
There is one window to trade a middle reliever for a decent return. That's right now, before the deadline, to a contender with a suspect pen. In the off season I agree middle relievers don't bring anything. Weathers could and should be moved. Probably Affeldt, too but I might risk arb with him. Lincoln is probably worth more to the club than what he'd bring on the market. He is starting to look very impressive and should have another year left in his tank.

1. Lincoln stays. He likely won't cost a lot and has been very good.

2. Weathers goes. replaced with Roenicke.

3. Affeldt - I haven't made up my mind.

Falls City Beer
07-21-2008, 01:18 PM
We might well get Weathers basck for one year at $5M+. His stats and saves over the last two years would add up to alot of money. He would make more in arbitration than he would get on the open market, plus a team signing him would have to sacrifice their first or second round pick. That would scare off may a potential signor, and leave him squarely back with us for way more than we want to spend.

Let him walk then. Weathers for two months > single A prospect worth nothing now or the future

Spitball
07-21-2008, 01:51 PM
There is one window to trade a middle reliever for a decent return. That's right now, before the deadline, to a contender with a suspect pen. In the off season I agree middle relievers don't bring anything...

If you have a Huston Street or Brian Fuentes to trade right now, you will likely get a pretty decent return; however, Weathers, Affeldt, and/or Lincoln will not bring a truly decent return. These pitchers are not going to significantly improve a team enough to command quality prospects in return.

Go back and look at the July trades I posted from 2005 and 2006. You will not find much evidence to support your theory that "right now" is the window to trade a middle reliever for a decent return.

I'd keep all three until the season ended and then evaluate the situation. It might likely require letting one, two or all three walk away, but at least the Reds will have the benefit of some protection in their pen for their starting pitchers.

Blitz Dorsey
07-21-2008, 02:02 PM
If we trade Affeldt, guarantee this board will be flooded with "We need a power lefty in the pen" threads next season.

I just don't see the value in trading him unless we get a legit prospect in return. However, if he's not willing to re-sign with the Reds at a reasonable price, then disregard everything I just said. But if Affleldt wants to come back, by all means bring him back. We will miss him next year if we don't have him. Bray is obviously not enough in terms of a lefty out of the pen. We need more. And I like that Affedlt is a rare power lefty out of the pen.

HokieRed
07-21-2008, 10:22 PM
I think we should seriously consider promoting Weathers to closer. Looks like the hole Wayne dug for this franchise just gets deeper and deeper. By my count we've got about 26 million invested next year just in Cordero, Arroyo, and Freel. When Adam Dunn is not re-signed, you Dunn fans should know just exactly who to blame: Wayne Krivsky.

toledodan
07-21-2008, 10:26 PM
should we try and move cordero? would the dodgers have any intrest with their closer out?

CTA513
07-21-2008, 10:27 PM
should we try and move cordero? would the dodgers have any intrest with their closer out?

If Im the Dodgers I would stick with Broxton unless the Reds offer to pay a big chunk of Corderos contract.

Falls City Beer
07-21-2008, 10:33 PM
Why is it that so many on here only want to trade players who have negative trade value? Hmm.

flyer85
07-21-2008, 10:33 PM
not nearly enough, neither will free agency. The only hope is shrewd trading where Jocketty gets undervalued assets. He will have to trade some of his young talent.

flyer85
07-21-2008, 10:35 PM
If I'm Jocketty I either move Phillips to SS or trade him. He could solve the SS problem, you can always fin someone to play 2ns adequately.

HokieRed
07-21-2008, 10:44 PM
This is what I hate about long-term contracts. Because you have bad long-term contracts you start trading other players--not because you want to but because they're the only ones you can deal. It's like being too long a term investor in the stock market: the danger is you end up married to all your losers.

toledodan
07-21-2008, 10:48 PM
Why is it that so many on here only want to trade players who have negative trade value? Hmm.



why do we continue to overpay for players just to bring them in to suck? we brought cordero in with the hope to contend this season. it seems everytime we extend someone or bring in a FA with a big contract it blows up in our face.:thumbdown

flyer85
07-21-2008, 10:54 PM
why do we continue to overpay for players just to bring them in to suck? we brought cordero in with the hope to contend this season. it seems everytime we extend someone or bring in a FA with a big contract it blows up in our face.:thumbdown
cordero has not been awful ... he just hasn't been worth anywhere near 11m+ per year ... but we knew that. Spending money in the free agent market only makes sense if you are acquiring the last piece of the puzzle.

Reds have a ton of issues, I honestly thing the starting pitching is the least of them. The defense stinks, especially at key positions(CF, SS, C) and they still have bullpen issues and the offense is likely to implode when Dunn goes.

HokieRed
07-21-2008, 10:57 PM
Can't help but agree, Flyer, you're talking about more of the same for the next couple years--4th place tops.

mbgrayson
07-21-2008, 11:30 PM
Lincoln won't bring anyone.

Affeldt and Weatherts might (especially Weathers) but I wouldn't want to risk arbitration with either.


I don't know that any of these three will bring any picks. Now, under the 2007 CBA, the new rules only leave two classes of free agent; A and B. To be in these categories, a player must be in the top 30% in his field. This explanation is from Paul DePodesta's Blog (http://itmightbedangerous.blogspot.com/):



At the conclusion of the season every free agent will be ranked, and only the Type A and Type B free agents carry any kind of compensation with them. This is roughly the top 30% of players (overall, not just free agents) in terms of performance both on a one-year and multi-year look. For the Club to receive any compensation a few things have to happen:

1) The Club must offer the player arbitration (sometimes a risky proposition)
2) The Player must reject the offer of arbitration
3) The Player must sign a Major League contract with another organization

Furthermore, when a Type A free agent signs with another Club, the signing Club loses their first round pick (or second round pick if their first round pick is within the first 15 picks). So, if you have a Type A free agent, you had better be awfully sure that he’s not going to accept arbitration and that some other team is going to be willing to sacrifice a top pick in order to sign him. Type B free agents do not “cost” the signing club anything in terms of a pick.

These rules are why there were just 16 compensation picks in between the first and second rounds of the 2008 draft despite the fact that there were over 100 free agents last winter. In short, it’s not a foregone conclusion that you’ll receive draft picks as compensation. There is no doubt, however, that the potential for draft picks (or lack thereof) weighs into the calculus at the deadline.


I don't think any of these three will get us a pick under the new rules. I will guess that none are offered arbitration. So, we might as well get whatever we can get now....

Big Klu
07-21-2008, 11:48 PM
should we try and move cordero? would the dodgers have any intrest with their closer out?


If Im the Dodgers I would stick with Broxton unless the Reds offer to pay a big chunk of Corderos contract.

Cordero has a full no-trade clause for 2008 and '09, and a limited no-trade clause for 2010, '11, and his option year of 2012. (The Reds have a $1 million buyout.)

REDREAD
07-22-2008, 10:35 AM
I understand that Lincoln won't.

I'd risk arb with both the other two.


I'd risk arb with Affeldt (if he's a type A), but not Weathers.

I'm not sure where Affedlt falls in his ranking.

Offering Weathers arbitration is suicide. You're basically forcing him to accept it. If Weathers declines arb, then (IIRC) half the teams would have to give up their first round pick to sign him as a FA.. He's smart enough to know that hurts his marketablity a lot. His saves willl help him in arb, and apparently he likes it here in Cincy. I agree that he gets more in arb than he would in the FA market. Weathers knows that he's unlikely to get more than 1 year as a FA anyhow (due to his age).

On the other hand, I don't see Affedlt getting awarded that much more in arb than he's getting now. He might decline arbitration to try and get a multiyear deal.

RedsManRick
07-22-2008, 12:45 PM
I'm with your RR. I think Weathers is likely to take arbitration both for the decent money he'll get and because, as you point out, his signing-me-costs-you-a-pick baggage will shrink his market considerably. And the potential downside of his productivity falling off a cliff makes him a dangerous risk.

Affeldt can argue that he's looking for a starting job somewhere or for a longer term committment. His (theoretical) upside will lessen the impact of having to give up a pick. While I'd not be terribly happy paying Affeldt this sort of money again, he's a good bet to continue to be a productive player.