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Kc61
07-21-2008, 12:41 PM
I know RedsZone wrote Cozart off the minute he was drafted, but he looks like a potential top ten list prospect to me. Said to have a great glove, now with an .800 OPS at Dayton. The report on him was that he was a pull hitter without the power and would be better hitting to all fields.

People seem to lump him with Janish, but he seems to have more offensive potential.

Anyone who has seen him play with views on his potential?

camisadelgolf
07-21-2008, 12:46 PM
I've seen him play in college. I've always been a fan of his swing and thought he had more than enough tools to make it to the Big Leagues. Like you said, he pulled the ball too much, but I think it was just a bad habit he got into because he over-matched his competition.

dougdirt
07-21-2008, 01:06 PM
I didn't like him when he was drafted. All glove, no stick. This year, I saw him at the beginning of the year in late April.... still seemed like all glove, no stick. Watching him recently, he is a different guy at the plate. Like him considerably more now than I did at the start of the year.

medford
07-21-2008, 01:12 PM
Watching him play about a week ago, the only time I've seen Cozart swing a bat, I came away impressed. I missed his first at bat, but in the next 3 he stung the ball nicely on 2 occasions, 1 for a hit, another for a long out. He also performed a perfect hit & run, knocking the ball b/w the SS & the 3rd basemen. Had I not know his reputation as all glove, no stick, I would have immediatly said "prospect" based upon this one game. I know one game doesn't make a prospect, but he seemed to have a good knowledge of what to do w/ the bat, hit to both fields. Though I'm no scout, far from it, I like his potential.

He was never tested defensively, so I can't say much about that.

OesterPoster
07-21-2008, 01:19 PM
I've seen him play in college. I've always been a fan of his swing and thought he had more than enough tools to make it to the Big Leagues. Like you said, he pulled the ball too much, but I think it was just a bad habit he got into because he over-matched his competition.

He has admitted that the adjustment from metal to wood has taken him some time...mentioning how he had to learn to swing more with his legs than ever before. Could be that he's just putting it all together this season.

RedsManRick
07-21-2008, 06:26 PM
Cozart was featured in Kevin Goldstein's Future Shock: Monday Morning Ten Pack at BP today.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=7834



Zach Cozart, SS, Low-A Dayton (Reds)
A second-round pick last year, Cozart entered pro ball as an outstanding defensive shortstop with little offense to offer. The first part of that equation hasn't changed, but the offensive aspect of his game has taken a shocking turn. After hitting just two home runs over 184 at-bats in last year's pro debut, Cozart just slugged his 11th and 12th home runs of the season over the weekend, and is now hitting a shocking .269/.330/.470 in 70 games for the Dragons. The on-base skills are still lacking, but the power development is downright shocking, and all he needed was some kind of offensive upside to project as an everyday player in the big leagues, because the defense really is that good.

camisadelgolf
07-21-2008, 06:28 PM
Thanks, RedsManRick. That's going to cue the "He's old for his level" posts a la Drew Stubbs.

mth123
07-21-2008, 08:07 PM
Sounds like Alex Gonzalez. As a $5 Million per year Free Agent its a pretty crummy value. As a 2nd round pick, its great.

D-Man
07-21-2008, 08:52 PM
Many people may forget, but he was a hot commodity and Preseason All American coming into 2007. . . And his stock plummeted prior to the draft due to a poor season at the dish.

This pick struck me as a interesting roll of the dice at the time, FWIW. No one else seemed to agree.

http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?p=1377926#post1377926

redsof72
07-21-2008, 09:06 PM
Cozart is a big league defensive shortstop right now. He does not have quite the pure athletic ability to be in that elite major league category, but he is good enough that any team would love to have him based strictly on his glove. As a hitter, he still has to learn to use the whole field. I would like to see him become more of a Keppinger type hitter.

UGADaddy
07-22-2008, 12:08 PM
Cozart was featured in Kevin Goldstein's Future Shock: Monday Morning Ten Pack at BP today.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=7834

his iso discipline is .060, so while he's not adam dunn, he's definitely not juan francisco either

Rojo
07-28-2008, 08:13 PM
Move him up?

camisadelgolf
07-29-2008, 02:18 AM
Move him up?

Amen. I think it could happen soon, since Kahaulelio just came down.

princeton
07-29-2008, 08:40 AM
it'll be interesting to see whether his "major league shortstop right now" label is downgraded as he hits more.

M2
07-29-2008, 10:52 AM
it'll be interesting to see whether his "major league shortstop right now" label is downgraded as he hits more.

Funny how those two seem to work in inverse proportion.

TheBigLebowski
07-29-2008, 11:36 AM
Sounds like what I always hoped would happen for Justin Tordi.

dougdirt
07-29-2008, 11:50 AM
Funny how those two seem to work in inverse proportion.

Cozart can absolutely glove it. Whether he hits or not, his glove is for real.

RED VAN HOT
07-29-2008, 02:17 PM
The need to move Cozart up highlights another issue. The Reds need to sort out the SS/3B situation. They have the somewhat happy dilemma of not being able to move people up because the players at the next level are playing too well.

Frazier is still being used at SS because Francisco is also at Sarasota. At Chattanooga, Valaika is still being used at SS; Eymann has been moved to 3B where suddenly he has found a bat. At Louisville, I don't believe the Reds have given up on Janish at SS; at 3B Rosales has started to hit very well over the last month. Everything I have read indicates that the Reds are high on him. My sense is that most of these players would be moving through other systems more rapidly.

Blitz Dorsey
07-29-2008, 10:10 PM
Valaika is "still" being used at SS because he is the Reds' SS of the future.

redsmetz
07-29-2008, 10:18 PM
Frazier is still being used at SS because Francisco is also at Sarasota. At Chattanooga, Valaika is still being used at SS; Eymann has been moved to 3B where suddenly he has found a bat. At Louisville, I don't believe the Reds have given up on Janish at SS; at 3B Rosales has started to hit very well over the last month. Everything I have read indicates that the Reds are high on him. My sense is that most of these players would be moving through other systems more rapidly.

What are you basing this on? I just looked at other position players picked in the same round as Cozart and all are at low A or high A, except the Rockies pick whose at AAA at the moment. I haven't looked at all of them, but I'm not sure the facts back you up on this.

RED VAN HOT
07-30-2008, 02:08 AM
re Valaika still at SS. I am big CV fan. Few things would please me more than his sticking at SS. I think he is a strong competitor who will learn to hit ML pitching as he has at every other level. My reservations defensively go back to the Baseball America draft assessment that he has below average range for a SS. This year's fielding statistics suggest that he is less sure handed than either Janish or Cozart. Valaika = .953; Janish = .968 at AAA; Cozart= .979. My use of the word "still" was a reference to the fact that the Reds have not yet ruled him out.

Regarding the speed with which players move through the minors, it is a generalization based not on Cozart's draft cohort, but on the minor league experience and performance of young players on the major league rosters of other teams. When I look at their minor league stats, I conclude that most would still in the minors if they were in the Reds' system. lAs a test, I looked at the rosters of the NL East teams for players age 24 and younger. With one exception, Cole Hamels, I concluded that these players would still be in the minors if they had put up the same numbers for the Reds. Here is a list of the players I considered.

Atlanta: Jair Jurrgens, Greg Blanco (compare his stats to Hanigan's)

Washington: Collin Balester; John Lannan; Jesus Flores (A+ to ML); Ryan Zimmerman (same class as Valaika, had great numbers but only 17 ABs at A- and 233 at AA before being promoted to ML)

NY Mets: Nick Evans (no AAA); Ambiorix Burgos; Mike Pelfrey

Philadelphia: Kyle Kendrick

Florida: Chris Volstad;; Andrew Miller; Scott Olsen (good numbers, but only 87 IP above A+); Anibal Sanchez. It is worth noting that the Marlins have had excellent success in turning over their roster.

There is something to be said for the methodical approach the Reds have been following under WK and WJ. The minors are where defensive skills need to be polished as well. IMO EE was rushed too fast.

My gripe about moving prospects through the system slowly stems from my frustration over the log jam at the ML and AAA levels. We have a wealth of both position players and pitchers who have proven themselves and need to be challenged by a move to the next level. I think to some extent the Reds are holding onto players on their major league roster in the hope of trading rather than releasing them. In the case of AAA players who do not figure into the Reds future, I think Louisville is nonetheless owed an opportunity to compete for a title. Still, it is frustrating. We are running out of time in the minor league season.

icehole3
07-30-2008, 04:38 AM
one having players play at SS and 3rd is a good thing, all that means is theyre gonna get many more chances than if you put them in RF or LF, you want youre guys to touch the ball. As far as movement thru the system Im not to concerned with that either because I think this is the last year were youll see a ton of journeymen type players at AAA, next year will be the first year really in like forever where this organization will be back to where it should be as far stability throughout the minors, yes it has taken this long to undo what Marge had done to the system IMO.

RED VAN HOT
07-30-2008, 03:10 PM
I agree with your points. The organization is approaching a point at which there will be 3-5 prospects each year with a legitimate chance to make the big club out of spring training. There will no longer be a need to fill out the spring roster with marginal major league free agent signings. I think this has become the only way a small market team can compete. For small market teams the penalty for overpaying for free agents is too severe.

mth123
08-24-2008, 07:03 AM
Cozart is looking more and more like the second coming of A-GON. Slick glove, struggles with OBP, good power for a legit SS, not a threat for SB. As of now:

.279/.333/.460/.793 in 387 AB with 24BB, 70K and 14 HR. He is a legit SS prospect IMO who will probably be a bottom of the line-up guy who adds a little pop. Unless some one is acquired, he appears to be the SS of the future on this team. IMO Cozart a better prospect than more noted hitters who may be tweeners because they have issues with being able to play a position that their bats can justify.

I have Cozart at number 11, but my list includes Homer Bailey (#4) and Chris Dickerson (#9) who both are probably ineligible next year based on rookie qualification status. That would move Cozart into the top 10 IMO.

RedlegJake
08-24-2008, 10:16 AM
I like Cozart as the SS of the future. If he is AGon at his best I'll take it and run.

Kc61
09-05-2008, 02:01 PM
Cozart homered in the playoff game last night, hit .280 for the regular season.

Have to find a spot for him on the top ten prospects list.

dougdirt
09-05-2008, 04:28 PM
Cozart homered in the playoff game last night, hit .280 for the regular season.

Have to find a spot for him on the top ten prospects list.

Going to be tough for him to get in. Top 15, absolutely. Top 10, probably not.

Kc61
09-05-2008, 04:36 PM
Going to be tough for him to get in. Top 15, absolutely. Top 10, probably not.


Still, he's come a long way from everyone's initial reaction to his selection. I guess we're all learning that defense counts for something.

mth123
09-05-2008, 07:27 PM
Cozart homered in the playoff game last night, hit .280 for the regular season.

Have to find a spot for him on the top ten prospects list.

I have him at #8 now.

lollipopcurve
09-05-2008, 07:33 PM
everyone's initial reaction to his selection

plenty of people here understand it takes years to fairly assess a pick

OnBaseMachine
09-05-2008, 07:55 PM
I wasn't a fan of the Cozart pick at the time, but he's starting to grow on me a bit. I'm intrigued by his power development this season but I'd really like to see him improve those OBP skills. If he can improve those OBP skills he could project as an above average major league shortstop down the road thanks to great defensive skills and solid power.

Mario-Rijo
09-06-2008, 01:34 AM
I hate to bring it up because I like Cozart but it needs to be stated anyway. Don't count your chickens, before they hatch. I know Cozart is a year younger in this example but I'm not so sure that means anything more than we simply got him 1 year sooner. You've seen how Janish has struggled throughout his L-Ville time and the Bigs and he looks to be a better, stronger but perhaps not quite as fleet of foot version of Cozart.

Cozart:

Age 21 Dayton - 201 PA - .239 BA - .288 OBP - .332 Slg. (2 HR, 2 TR, 7 DBL)
Age 22 Dayton - 418 PA - .280 BA - .330 OBP - .457 Slg. (14 HR, 6 TR, 20 DBL)

Janish:

Age 22 Dayton - 237 PA - .245 BA - .346 OBP - .385 Slg. (5 HR, 2 TR, 10 DBL)
Age 23 Dayton - 105 PA - .398 BA - .435 OBP - .612 Slg. (5 HR, 0 TR, 6 DBL)

Age 23 (Totals Day, Sara, Chatt):
-------------- - 517 PA - .304 BA - .371 OBP - .460 Slg. (14 HR, 2 TR, 24 DBL)

dougdirt
09-06-2008, 01:44 AM
There are two main differences between Janish and Cozart. Janish had better plate discipline and Cozart has a lot more power. The issue with Janish is that he just had a weak bat for the most part (he has had 3 months of at least 50 at bats with an .800 OPS or better in 4 years in the minors). The question with Cozart is can he learn a little more plate discipline? Thats really the only weakness in his game currently.

Mario-Rijo
09-06-2008, 02:17 AM
There are two main differences between Janish and Cozart. Janish had better plate discipline and Cozart has a lot more power. The issue with Janish is that he just had a weak bat for the most part (he has had 3 months of at least 50 at bats with an .800 OPS or better in 4 years in the minors). The question with Cozart is can he learn a little more plate discipline? Thats really the only weakness in his game currently.

I see the OBP% issue with him. But I don't really see where Cozart has a lot more pop. Perhaps a tad more if we give a lot of consideration to just this season but overall I don't see it.

dougdirt
09-06-2008, 02:26 AM
I see the OBP% issue with him. But I don't really see where Cozart has a lot more pop. Perhaps a tad more if we give a lot of consideration to just this season but overall I don't see it.

I see the pop in just watching him hit. He made some swing adjustments this year and his bat really showed something.

Mario-Rijo
09-06-2008, 03:34 AM
I see the pop in just watching him hit. He made some swing adjustments this year and his bat really showed something.

Hmmm, intriguing. Well hopefully that continues and like you say he gets better with his plate discipline. If so he will be a real steal and a much needed piece to the puzzle in this organization.