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redsmetz
07-21-2008, 02:20 PM
Its routinely discussed here about players who are potential free agents that we ought to let them walk and take the draft picks. I know folks used to reply that draft picks in baseball aren't like in the NFL or NBA because you've got so much development to undertake before they ever set foot on a ML field. There is a considerable risk in any draft pick; there are very few "sure things".

USA Today reported last fall:


Under the new collective bargaining agreement, the rankings are used to determine whether players are Type "A" or Type "B." The classification determines which draft picks former teams receive as compensation if they sign with another team. The top 20% of the rankings are "A" and the next 20% "B."

The only Reds players who were ranked last year as A Players were Adam Dunn, Ken Griffey Jr., Aaron Harang, Bronson Arroyo and Brandon Phillips. Edwin Encarnacion and Jeff Keppinger were B Players.

I believe the rankings are based on a two year period (so these are 2006/2007 rankings).

We signed Francisco Cordero who was an A Player this offseason and forfeited our 2nd round pick to the Brewers (they chose RHP Seth Lintz).

But since compensation picks were implemented, we've only taken 17 players. Three were just in last year, so obviously the book remains out on them. Only one player became an impact player for the Reds, Joe Oliver, a second round pick from the Yankees as compensation for losing Bob Shirley to them.

Here's the list:

1st round picks (including supplemental picks):

2007 Todd Frazier compensation for Rich Aurelia
2007 Kyle Lotzkar compensation for Scott Schoenweiss

2000 Dustin Mosely compensation for Juan Guzman
1996 Matt McClendon compensation for Ron Gant
1993 Pat Watkins compensation for Greg Swindell
1982 Scott Jones pick from Yankees for Dave Collins
1982 Roberts Jones supplemental pick from Yankees for Dave Collins

2nd round picks

2000 Dane Sardinha compensation for Juan Guzman
1996 Buddy Carlyle compensation for Ron Gant
1992 Rick Madelano compensation for Mariano Duncan
1983 Joe Oliver compensation for Bob Shirley
1980 Jim Pettibone compensation for Joe Morgan
1980 Dave Miley compensation for Fred Norman
1979 Keefe Cato compensation for Mike Lum
1979 Bob Buchannon pick from the Angels for tampering with Bill Bordley (???)

3rd round picks

2007 Scott Carroll compensation for Rich Aurelia
1993 Steve Wilkerson compensation for Greg Swindell

As you can see, only Oliver was an impact player. Those who made the majors mostly had just cups of coffee. Seven of them never saw major league service. Again, the book remains open on the three 2007 extra picks, but I've seen folks speak wel of Frazier and Lotzkar.

The point of this exercise is to highlight that "taking the draft picks" is not a sure thing, in fact, it's not much of a bet. I think we bandy it about way too easily. One for 17 is just batting .058 - not so hot. I'm not sure what the best approach would be, but draft picks isn't a sure thing.

Kc61
07-21-2008, 02:28 PM
Can't really agree. A lot of these picks were long ago. Not sure the Reds put as much money or effort into the draft then. Today, the Reds are good drafters, they obviously focus heavily on the draft. Guys like Frazier, Lotzkar and Carroll were good selections and with a bunch of high picks next year I'm sure they'd pick wisely.

Drafting is a far different task today, with economics requiring teams to build with youth. Even the process in the 1990s and early 2000s seems outdated.

camisadelgolf
07-21-2008, 02:28 PM
Am I the only one here who has an autographed card of Buddy Carlyle from when he played for the Charleston AlleyCats? His first Major League win was in 1999, and his second ML win was in 2007. I wonder what it could fetch on eBay . . .

camisadelgolf
07-21-2008, 02:30 PM
I thank the heavens every day for Jim Bowden no longer being the Reds' GM.

paulrichjr
07-21-2008, 02:30 PM
Don't agree. A lot of these picks were long ago. Not sure the Reds put as much money or effort into the draft then. Today, the Reds are good drafters, they obviously focus heavily on the draft. Guys like Frazier, Lotzkar and Carroll were good selections and with a bunch of high picks next year I'm sure they'd pick wisely.

It seems that all teams are doing a better job picking over the last few years. The first round guys seem to get to the majors with more frequency than in the past.

cincinnati chili
07-21-2008, 02:34 PM
Good work, redsmetz.

I agree that if you get a GOOD free agent, the draft picks are usually worth forfeiting. But mostly, this list suggests that the Reds have drafted poorly. Every single year in the history of the draft good players have been avail. in supplemental rounds.

Also Todd Frazier is still 22 and has hit well this year in high A ball:
http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?n=Todd%20Frazier&pos=SS&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=453943

redsmetz
07-21-2008, 02:43 PM
Can't really agree. A lot of these picks were long ago. Not sure the Reds put as much money or effort into the draft then. Today, the Reds are good drafters, they obviously focus heavily on the draft. Guys like Frazier, Lotzkar and Carroll were good selections and with a bunch of high picks next year I'm sure they'd pick wisely.

Drafting is a far different task today, with economics requiring teams to build with youth. Even the process in the 1990s and early 2000s seems outdated.

You may well be right about teams putting more effort into it, but I'm not certain that's completely true. There might be more tools available for analyzing draftees' abilities, but then again, you really can lose out if you have crummy scouting and development. Bowdens drafts proved to be weak, but even back in the 70's, you could see the coming implosion in the early 1980's from some of those drafts; which is ironic given the clubs resistance to the advent of free agency - you'd have thought they'd have beefed up minor league development.

In 1972, only one of our draft picks made the club (21st round pick) Dan Dumoulin; 2 years, 1-0 record in 1977 and 1978); one other made the ML's; 23rd round pick Ron Hassey, but he didn't sign with us waiting to be drafted two more times until signing with Cleveland after college in 1976). What a horrible, horrible draft. The following year, we only picked one player that made the majors, pitcher Jay Howell, and he only pitched for us one year before moving on to some success as a reliever.

Maybe they're doing a better job now, but I still think it's not a given. Mosely and Sardinha show that they still can be crapshoots. Maybe last year's three picks beat the odds. We'll see.

redsmetz
07-21-2008, 02:44 PM
Also Todd Frazier is still 22 and has hit well this year in high A ball:
http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?n=Todd%20Frazier&pos=SS&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=453943

Clearly it's too early to last year's three picks. As I mentioned just a moment ago, maybe these guys make a better showing for us.

dfs
07-21-2008, 02:52 PM
The point of this exercise is to highlight that "taking the draft picks" is not a sure thing, in fact, it's not much of a bet. I think we bandy it about way too easily. One for 17 is just batting .058 - not so hot. I'm not sure what the best approach would be, but draft picks isn't a sure thing.

The flip side of that... how many of those free agents that were classified high enough to bring in a draft pick, did we really miss?

At this point, the reds are much better off owning futures in Frazier and Lotskar than the the last couple of years of Rich Aurillia and Schoenwiess.

Juan Guzman left the reds. Signed a multimillion dollar multiyear contract and his arm fell off. The reds were better off with anything.

Ron Gant was off and on productive after he left the reds, although he carried a hefty price tag.

Swindell was basically done as a starting pitcher when he left. Now, he did resurrect his career as a very effective loogy, but that wasn't what he was here.

Collins played for nine years after he left the reds, but only during one of those was he really worth the playing time teams invested in him.

Mariano Duncan was off and on effective after he left and he never really was an expensive player.

Fred Norman and Mike Lum were done. You can't blame anybody for letting them go.

In retrospect, letting Morgan walk wasn't a good move.

In other words...of the free agents the reds let walk, the only ones that actually contributed to ANYBODY after they left here would have been Morgan, Duncan and Gant and I think you can make a decent case that Duncan and Gant didn't earn out their free agent contracts.

Unless I'm very much mistaken, on the list of guys the reds would receive compensation for the only one that will be free to walk away where the reds could receive compensation would be Adam Dunn. I don't think the reds can buy Junior out and then offer him arbitration in order to take the pick when he walks. (Corrections are welcome) Similarly the other guys are either under contract or have not started arbitration yet.

At the time of their leaving, none of the players the reds received compensation for were in the class of Adam Dunn. Probably the closest was Ron Gant. Dunn is younger than Gant was and has established a much higher consistent level of play.

Still while Ron Gant was patrolling left field in Busch Stadium for the Cardinals, we got to see Eric Owens and Chris Stynes.

camisadelgolf
07-21-2008, 02:52 PM
Clearly it's too early to last year's three picks. As I mentioned just a moment ago, maybe these guys make a better showing for us.

When DanO took over, there was an almost-immediate improvement on drafting and development in the Reds organization. After WayK took over, the improvements were greatly accelerated, and the Reds have one of the top minor league organizations in baseball. I think the draft pick compensation has more value than ever for the Reds, but anyone in baseball will tell you that there is no guarantee that a draft pick will pan out. Plus, another thing to keep in mind is that whoever the Reds draft will receive a pretty big signing bonus as a first rounder, so that factors into the equation as well.

Kc61
07-21-2008, 02:53 PM
Maybe they're doing a better job now, but I still think it's not a given. Mosely and Sardinha show that they still can be crapshoots. Maybe last year's three picks beat the odds. We'll see.


Even Mosely and Sardinha were drafted in a different era as far as the Reds are concerned. Much more emphasis on drafting the last few years for this organization.

I'd rather the Reds get draft picks than take a second tier prospect in a trade.

fearofpopvol1
07-21-2008, 03:00 PM
Adam Dunn was a 3rd round pick, right? The sandwich rounds are after the 1st and 2nd rounds, right? I'm just sayin!

It will always be a crapshoot. You'd rather have the sure thing over taking a gamble, but sometimes, it's not in the cards. If you can't resign the FA and the trade offers are bad, taking the picks is the next best thing.

dougdirt
07-21-2008, 03:03 PM
Adam Dunn was a 3rd round pick, right? The sandwich rounds are after the 1st and 2nd rounds, right? I'm just sayin!

It will always be a crapshoot. You'd rather have the sure thing over taking a gamble, but sometimes, it's not in the cards. If you can't resign the FA and the trade offers are bad, taking the picks is the next best thing.

Dunn was a second round pick.

redsmetz
07-21-2008, 03:15 PM
Adam Dunn was a 3rd round pick, right? The sandwich rounds are after the 1st and 2nd rounds, right? I'm just sayin!

It will always be a crapshoot. You'd rather have the sure thing over taking a gamble, but sometimes, it's not in the cards. If you can't resign the FA and the trade offers are bad, taking the picks is the next best thing.

Doug answered the Dunn question, but some of these were sandwich picks, others were the other team's pick during that round (as Milwaukee got from us this year). I don't have it broken down as to which are which. Of course, the rules changed over the years as the Basic Agreement has changed.

fearofpopvol1
07-21-2008, 03:19 PM
Okay, 2nd round. Even still, Dunn could've been acquired in the 1st sandwich round...

redsmetz
07-21-2008, 03:21 PM
DFS, thanks for your thorough reciting of the flip side and your's is an accurate breakdown of the other side of the question. And I think you're correct about who would have helped or not (Morgan, clearly; Gant and Duncan possibly - and, yes, Guzman essentially became a rental).

And I can't recall if it was you or someone else who mentioned that of our A and B list players last year, Dunn is the only one who is presently a potential free agent (and I also don't know the answer to whether draft picks would be available if we buy out Griffey and still offer arbitration). Of those who are potential free agents, it's possible Fogg might make the B Player cut, but he'd really have to crank things up for this year; so I don't think it's likely - as I said, he just missed the mark last year. It's possible Affeldt may pump up, but I'm not certain of that. Weathers is still a possibility and he might make the cut too.

Dunn is the really question and as I said elsewhere, we're all over the board about what to do with him.

camisadelgolf
07-21-2008, 04:01 PM
Does anyone have a link to what's required to qualify as a type-A or type-B free agent?

redsmetz
07-21-2008, 04:14 PM
Does anyone have a link to what's required to qualify as a type-A or type-B free agent?

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2007/10/stats-used-for-.html

In this link, I came across this comment which pertains to the earlier question viz Griffey:

Spoke to Law on whether option guys like Jose Guillen, Adam Dunn, or Tom Glavine could be offered arbitration and consequently net draft picks as Type As or Bs. He said yes.

princeton
07-21-2008, 04:20 PM
nearly all teams strongly prefer to trade a near-free agent for minor leaguers that are nearly ready to jump to the majors. A big part of this is cost (minor leaguers require no signing bonuses), another part is that GMs tend to want to keep their jobs and are less interested in drafting players that won't be major leaguers for a long time, and a third part is that the draft is an expensive crapshoot.

you prefer the draft only if your GM is very stably entrenched and you highly trust your scouting director. I'm not sure about that here.

camisadelgolf
07-21-2008, 04:43 PM
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2007/10/stats-used-for-.html

In this link, I came across this comment which pertains to the earlier question viz Griffey:

Spoke to Law on whether option guys like Jose Guillen, Adam Dunn, or Tom Glavine could be offered arbitration and consequently net draft picks as Type As or Bs. He said yes.

Thank you.

And here is how the players in the NL ranked following 2007:

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/baseball/nl/2007-10-31-elias-rankings-complete_N.htm

Spitball
07-21-2008, 05:40 PM
On a related note, here is an interesting list of compensation picks I found on Pine Fresh Shenaigans. I'd venture that there are more notable names listed here than you will find among the prospects traded in waiver wire deals.

Todd Jones, HOU (1989) -- Nolan Ryan
Rondell White, MON (1990) -- Mark Langston
Scott Hatteberg, BOS (1991) -- Mike Boddicker
Johnny Damon, KCR (1992) -- Kurt Stillwell
Shannon Stewart, TOR (1992) -- Tom Candiotti
Jon Lieber, KCR (1992) -- Danny Tartabull
Chris Carpenter, TOR (1993) -- Tom Henke
Torii Hunter, MIN (1993) -- John Smiley
Jay Payton, NYM (1994) -- Sid Fernandez
Scott Elarton, HOU (1994) -- Mark Portugal
Jason Marquis, ATL (1996) -- failure to sign Chad Hutchinson
Buddy Carlyle, CIN (1996) -- Ron Gant
Brad Lidge, HOU (1998) -- Darryl Kile
Brad Wilkerson, MON (1998) -- Darrin Fletcher
Jody Gerut, COL (1998) -- Walt Weiss
Matt Belisle, ATL (1998) -- Greg Myers
Aaron Rowand, CHW (1998) -- Dave Martinez
Brian Roberts, BAL (1999) -- Rafael Palmeiro
Kevin Mench, TEX (1999) -- Todd Stottlemeyer
Jimmy Gobble, KCR (1999) -- Dean Palmer
Chris Duncan, STL (1999) -- Delino DeShields
Jason Repko, LAD (1999) -- Scott Radinsky
Mike MacDougal, KCR (1999) -- Jose Offerman
Billy Traber, NYM (2000) -- Jon Olerud
Chris Bootcheck, LAA (2000) -- Mike Magnante
Dustin MacGowan, TOR (2000) -- Graeme Lloyd
Dustin Moseley, CIN (2000) -- Juan Guzman
Brian Tallet, CLE (2000) -- Mike Jackson
Kelly Johnson, ATL (2000) -- Jose Hernandez
Zach Miner, ATL (2000) -- Gerald Williams
Adam Wainwright, ATL (2000) -- Russ Springer
Aaron Heilman, David Wright, NYM (2001) -- Mike Hampton
Mike Fontenot, BAL (2001) -- Mike Mussina
Brad Hennessey, Todd Linden, SFG (2001) -- Ellis Burks
Macay McBride, ATL (2001) -- Andy Ashby
Jeremy Bonderman, John Rheinecker, OAK (2001) -- Kevin Appier
Kelly Shoppach, BOS (2001) -- Rheal Cormier
Nick Swisher, Mark Teahen, OAK (2002) -- Johnny Damon
Joe Blanton, Jeremy Brown, OAK (2002) -- Jason Giambi
Dan Meyer, ATL (2002) -- Steve Karsay
Rich Hill, CHC (2002) -- Todd Van Poppel
Brad Snyder, Adam Miller, CLE (2003) -- Jim Thome
Conor Jackson, ARI (2003) -- Greg Colbrunn
David Aardsma, SFG (2003) -- Jeff Kent
Omar Quintanilla, OAK (2003) -- Ray Durham
Mitch Maier, KCR (2003) -- Paul Byrd
Jo-Jo Reyes, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, ATL (2003) -- Mike Remlinger
Matt Murton, BOS (2003) -- Cliff Floyd
Adam Jones, SEA (2003) -- failure to sign John Mayberry, Jr.
Glen Perkins, MIN (2004) -- Eddie Guardado
Phillip Hughes, NYY (2004) -- Andy Pettitte
Landon Powell, OAK (2004) -- Keith Foulke
Blake DeWitt, Justin Orenduff, LAD (2004) -- Paul Quantrill
JP Howell, KCR (2004) -- Raul Ibanez
Zach Jackson, Adam Lind, TOR (2004) -- Kelvim Escobar
Tyler Lumsden, CHW (2004) -- Bartolo Colon
Gio Gonzalez, CHW (2004) -- Tom Gordon
Huston Street, OAK (2004) -- Miguel Tejada
Jacoby Ellsbury, Jed Lowrie, BOS (2005) -- Orlando Cabrera
Clay Buchholz, BOS (2005) -- Pedro Martinez
Craig Hansen, BOS (2005) -- Derek Lowe
Micah Owings, ARI (2005) -- Richie Sexson
Jensen Lewis, CLE (2005) -- Omar Vizquel
Garrett Olson, BAL (2005) -- failure to sign Wade Townsend
Ian Kennedy, Joba Chamberlain, NYY (2006) -- Tom Gordon
Emmanuel Burriss, SFG (2006) -- Scott Eyre

Others to Note

Terry Francona, MON (1980) -- Rudy May
Billy Beane, NYM (1980) -- Andy Hassler
Wally Joyner, LAA (1983) -- Don Baylor
Terry Mullholland, SFG (1984) -- Darrell Evans
Joey Cora, SDP (1985) -- Ed Whitson
Todd Zeile, STL (1986) -- Ivan DeJesus
Roberto Hernandez and Mike Fetters, LAA (1986) -- Juan Beniquez
Todd Hundley, NYM (1987) -- Ray Knight
Royce Clayton, SFG (1988) -- Eddie Milner
Charles Nagy, CLE (1988) -- Brett Butler
Brian Jordan, STL (1988) -- Jack Clark
Shawn Green, TOR (1991) -- Bud Black
Nate Cornejo, DET (1998) -- Willie Blair
Larry Bigbie, BAL (1999) -- Rafael Palmeiro
Michael Garciaparra, SEA (2001) -- Alex Rodriguez

REDREAD
07-21-2008, 06:05 PM
The point of this exercise is to highlight that "taking the draft picks" is not a sure thing, in fact, it's not much of a bet. I think we bandy it about way too easily. One for 17 is just batting .058 - not so hot. I'm not sure what the best approach would be, but draft picks isn't a sure thing.

Great point. I think we always get over optimistic about draft picks. I even remember some people saying that it was no big deal to deliberately punt Sowers because we'd get a comp pick the following year and we could get a better player (or one just as good).. We ended up picking Schramek (spelling wrong), who was heralded by some as the best college hitter in the draft.. Well, obviously, he did squat.

IMO, a team is much better trading a guy like Dunn for a couple of AA ball guys with some potential than a supplemental draft pick. Sure, plenty of those guys will turn out to be Brian Reith or Rob Bell types, but some will turn out to be Norm Charlton (plucked from Montreal as a minor leaguer for Wayne Krenchecki).. Of course, the skill is picking a guy with legitimate potential that the other club is underrating..

REDREAD
07-21-2008, 06:11 PM
Dunn was a second round pick.

Yeah, and the reason he slipped to the second round was because everyone thought he was going to play football fulltime and he couldn't be talked out of it.

If Dunn had given up football before the draft, he would've been a 1st round pick.

That's one big victory Bowden had. He took a risk on Dunn, and then I believe during Dunn's freshman year, he gave Dunn some more money to play baseball full time. Any club could've done that, but the Reds actually got it done.

dfs
07-21-2008, 07:24 PM
Dunn is the really question and as I said elsewhere, we're all over the board about what to do with him.

Take a look at the Bondsless Giants. That's the kind of offense they'll run out there without Dunn. It's gonna be ugly.

redsmetz
07-21-2008, 10:56 PM
Take a look at the Bondsless Giants. That's the kind of offense they'll run out there without Dunn. It's gonna be ugly.

It very well could be. I'm in the sign him court. Someone recently suggested three years with a fourth year option. I don't know if Dunn would accept, but I think that blunts the risk of his 4th year being on the decline.

RedlegJake
07-22-2008, 06:48 AM
Spitball's list answers my question - not how did the Reds do by themselves in compensation but how have others fared. Then compare the Reds. It's obvious there have been many compensation picks that have been BIG contributors - so it becomes much more clear the problem is the Reds' job drafting players - not so much that compensation picks overall are poor risks. That said getting a couple minor leaguers is probably a better bet simply because they are cheaper and closer to fruition. BUT - that is only true if the players acquired are legitimate prospects.