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View Full Version : Weathers(2007) vs. Cordero(2008)



mbgrayson
07-21-2008, 10:47 PM
Sorry, but I couldn't resist:

2007 David Weathers: 33 saves, 6 blown saves, 84.6% conversion rate. 27 BBs, 48 Ks, for a 1.562 K/BB rate. 3.59 ERA. 4 HRs allowed. WHIP= 1.210.
2007 salary: $2,250,000.

2008 Francisco Cordero(thru 7/21/08): 20 saves, 6 blown saves, 76.9% conversion rate. 28 BBs, 50 Ks, for a 1.56 K/BB rate. 3.52 ERA. 4 HRs allowed. WHIP= 1.456.
2008 salary: $8,625,000, plus we lost our 2nd round draft pick to Milwaukee.

Back when Cordero was signed last year, there were a lot of us talking about the technique discussed in Moneyball of not over-paying for a closer. Billy Beane built up his closer's marke value, then traded them away for draft picks once their salaries spiked. Look over all the big money deals to closers over the last few years. Closers are a volatile and transient commodity. Closers are almost never a good investment for a long term contract.

The data listed above show that even a near replacement level pitcher like Weathers can close games... The Reds are going to regret paying that money for a long time... Small market teams can't afford mistakes like this if they want to contend.

HokieRed
07-21-2008, 10:51 PM
No need to apologize. I think you're saying exactly what needs to be said. As I remember them, Cordero's blown saves seem to have come at important times in the team's year too. Just about every time we seem to be gathering a little momentum, he blows a save. I thought from the beginning, and continue to think, this was another of Wayne's horrible investments. Krivsky's contracts are the greatest obstacle to this team's rebuilding. Walt will need to be a genius to move this team to any higher than 4th for at least 2009 and probably beyond.

alexad
07-21-2008, 10:54 PM
No need to apologize. I think you're saying exactly what needs to be said. As I remember them, Cordero's blown saves seem to have come at important times in the team's year too. Just about every time we seem to be gathering a little momentum, he blows a save. I thought from the beginning, and continue to think, this was another of Wayne's horrible investments. Krivsky's contracts are the greatest obstacle to this team's rebuilding. Walt will need to be a genius to move this team to any higher than 4th for at least 2009 and probably beyond.

6 blown saves that would have been wins for this club. I would rather have Weathers than COCO............If I have to hear George say COCO one more time, I am going to puke.

mbgrayson
07-21-2008, 10:56 PM
No need to apologize. I think you're saying exactly what needs to be said. As I remember them, Cordero's blown saves seem to have come at important times in the team's year too. Just about every time we seem to be gathering a little momentum, he blows a save.
This is true. Weathers blown saves have come mostly when he is used heavily. He cannot seem to convert when pitching 3 straight nights.

When does he pitch a lot? When the Reds are winning.

The whole closer model is flawed. Cordero could be much better if we just let Bray or Burton pitch when Cordero is gassed. Spread the saves out a little....don't put all your eggs in one basket.

cincinnati chili
07-22-2008, 12:44 AM
I can accept the argument that Cordero was overpaid, but the biggest difference between Cordero '08 and Weathers '07 is luck.

I don't think Cordero threw all that badly tonight.There were a number of close ball/strike calls, and at least one of the two balls hit to right field were catchable, had Bruce made proper reads on them.

Contrast that with Weathers' eighth inning, in which he chucked and ducked to four batters or so, and then a rookie batter took an ill-advised two strike curve ball.

For those not familiar with Cordero's history, be aware that Texas quit on him in '06 after a similar round of bad luck. Blip on the radar.

I'd like to see him be around the strike zone more early in the count. Trust his stuff. But I'll go to war with Cordero in the worst stretch of his career over David Weathers during the best stretch of his career.

Deepred05
07-22-2008, 01:09 AM
No need to apologize. I think you're saying exactly what needs to be said. As I remember them, Cordero's blown saves seem to have come at important times in the team's year too. Just about every time we seem to be gathering a little momentum, he blows a save. I thought from the beginning, and continue to think, this was another of Wayne's horrible investments. Krivsky's contracts are the greatest obstacle to this team's rebuilding. Walt will need to be a genius to move this team to any higher than 4th for at least 2009 and probably beyond.

That is what hurts the most. It seems he has blown some critical games this year, not the least of which was the first San Diego game. (18 inning affair.) I know I have a sense of dread when he enters the game.

mbgrayson
07-22-2008, 01:38 AM
I can accept the argument that Cordero was overpaid, but the biggest difference between Cordero '08 and Weathers '07 is luck.

I don't think Cordero threw all that badly tonight.There were a number of close ball/strike calls, and at least one of the two balls hit to right field were catchable, had Bruce made proper reads on them.

Contrast that with Weathers' eighth inning, in which he chucked and ducked to four batters or so, and then a rookie batter took an ill-advised two strike curve ball.

For those not familiar with Cordero's history, be aware that Texas quit on him in '06 after a similar round of bad luck. Blip on the radar.

I'd like to see him be around the strike zone more early in the count. Trust his stuff. But I'll go to war with Cordero in the worst stretch of his career over David Weathers during the best stretch of his career.

Ancedotal citations to one game are interesting, but very unscientific. The traditional measure of 'luck' for a pitcher is BABIP, or batting average on balls in play. A higher BABIP show that the pitcher was unlucky, and had more hits fall in than might be expected.

Weathers 2007 BABIP was .269, compared to his career BABIP of .312, showing that he was in fact somewhat 'lucky' last year to have fewer balls in play fall for hits than usual. Source (http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=902&position=P).

Cordero in 2008 has a BABIP of .292 going into tonight's game. His career BABIP is .315. So he has also been luckier than usual this year. Source. (http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1243&position=P)

In other words, this year is LUCKIER than usual for Cordero, not unluckier.

For relievers, I think WHIP is important. Relief pitchers with high WHIP numbers are always allowing baserunners to get on, and have to work out of trouble constantly. My subjective observation of this is that all year, Cordero has allowed a lot of baserunners, and WAY too many walks.

The stats bear this out: Cordero allowing 1.456 baserunners per inning is just not that good for a top line closer. Cordero's career WHIP is 1.35, also not great.

By comparison, Mariano Rivera has a career WHIP of 1.03, Jon Papelbon's career WHIP is .93, Trevor Hoffman is 1.05, Saito is .89, Putz is 1.14, Joe Nathan is 1.14, Billy Wagner 1.01, Burton is at 1.23 career, Joakim Soria is at .85.

On the other end of the spectrum, Danny Graves had a career WHIP of 1.40.....hmmmm.

Further proof that Cordero is simply NOT a top flight closer. He might look almost unhittable at times, but not when he is worked heavily, and not with all the walks he gives up. His high velocity masks his serious control issues a little. But as that velocity drops off, as it always does when a pitcher ages, watch out....

And by the way, Weathers got a nice strikeout tonight of Chase Headley to work his way out of trouble. Scary thought: Weather's ERA(3.35) this year is now better than Cordero's(3.52). About tonight's umpiring, the Padres announcers complained liked crazy about the large zone Cordero had tonight, especially on the called third strike to Ambres to lead off the 9th.

RedsManRick
07-22-2008, 02:35 AM
Cordero is a very effective pitcher having a run of bad luck. But pitching in the 9th inning isn't a skill which merits 2-3x the pay the pitcher would get otherwise. The Reds weren't too smart to spend as much as they did on him.

RedlegJake
07-22-2008, 06:35 AM
Cordero has a history of being on and off. That history was readily apparent to anyone looking at his career. The Reds overpaid to get a closer who has spells of ineffectiveness. He might go the next month looking unhittable. He might go the next month blowing just about every save. That's the pitcher they paid for.

hebroncougar
07-22-2008, 07:19 AM
Cordero is a very effective pitcher having a run of bad luck. But pitching in the 9th inning isn't a skill which merits 2-3x the pay the pitcher would get otherwise. The Reds weren't too smart to spend as much as they did on him.

I don't know. I believe Marty said on Saturday that Cordero had retired the side in order only 9 out of 43 chances. By my count that is 9 out of 45 chances, if he was correct on Saturday. That's not very effective, that is downright awful for someone who is being paid as the highest closer in baseball.

Ltlabner
07-22-2008, 07:48 AM
Aw..the sweet smell of RZ hysteria. Hardly any discusion of Cordero until two bad outings and then we are treated to the cries of 'I knew he sucked all along!'

I agree that they overpaid and the closers role is overrated. I compleatley disagree that they could have gone with Weathers for another year.

Is there real data to support the notion that Cordero gets gassed and has been ridden hard? It sure seems like he's been run out for a lot of non-save situations where someone else might have been used.

Then again, I thought the same thing with Burton and was wrong there too.

cumberlandreds
07-22-2008, 08:06 AM
IIRC,Cordero went through a dry spell about this time last season with the Brewers. It might be time to give him a break in the closers role and let someone else close for a week or two,like Weathers or even Bray. Burton, if healthy, could but he's not at the moment. Part of managing is knowing when to pull in the reins on someone and when to ride them. Time to pull in the reins on Cordero,Dusty, and let someone try it for at least a short time.

Kc61
07-22-2008, 08:14 AM
In other words, this year is LUCKIER than usual for Cordero, not unluckier.

For relievers, I think WHIP is important. Relief pitchers with high WHIP numbers are always allowing baserunners to get on, and have to work out of trouble constantly. My subjective observation of this is that all year, Cordero has allowed a lot of baserunners, and WAY too many walks.

The stats bear this out: Cordero allowing 1.456 baserunners per inning is just not that good for a top line closer. Cordero's career WHIP is 1.35, also not great.

By comparison, Mariano Rivera has a career WHIP of 1.03, Jon Papelbon's career WHIP is .93, Trevor Hoffman is 1.05, Saito is .89, Putz is 1.14, Joe Nathan is 1.14, Billy Wagner 1.01, Burton is at 1.23 career, Joakim Soria is at .85.

On the other end of the spectrum, Danny Graves had a career WHIP of 1.40.....hmmmm.

And by the way, Weathers got a nice strikeout tonight of Chase Headley to work his way out of trouble. Scary thought: Weather's ERA(3.35) this year is now better than Cordero's(3.52). About tonight's umpiring, the Padres announcers complained liked crazy about the large zone Cordero had tonight, especially on the called third strike to Ambres to lead off the 9th.

Very interesting post. IMO a good reliever should have a WHIP of 1.30 or below. A starter 1.40 or below.

Last year with the Brewers Cordero had a WHIP of 1.11. So the Reds may have bought on the basis of a career year. All his numbers were excellent last year.

Since 2003, Cordero's WHIP numbers have generally been around the 1.3 mark. His lifetime WHIP suffers from some early years with very high numbers.

So I think his record of allowing runners the last several years (since 2003) isn't bad, but on the basis of runners allowed usually isn't in the elite category. Again, 2007 was a superb year for him.

Cordero's higher-than-you-would-like WHIP is largely a function of walks.
Most years Cordero keeps hits allowed to an acceptable level, but sometimes has a high number of walks.

This year he has walked 28 in 46 innings, which leads to his 1.45 WHIP. (Last year Cordero walked 18 all year, again an extraordinary season for him.)

Last night, after Scott Hairston walked with one out the floodgates opened.

Even last year, his great year, Cordero was 0-4 and blew 7 saves. So there are games where he doesn't shut the opposition down. And this year he is being used more heavily, maybe that has some impact. Maybe Cordero needs a bit less work.

IMO Cordero hasn't thrown that well since the ASB and just doesn't seem to be himself right now. I think he'll snap back, but last night's loss was pretty devastating. The Reds are at home now playing weaker teams and can't blow leads to lose games if they want to finish above .500, which seems to be the goal.

As for the "scary" thought of Cordero's ERA is worse than Weathers, it's only scary if you subscribe to the view of some posters around here that Weathers isn't any good. I don't subscribe to that, I think Weathers has been a real warrior for the Reds and since Burton went down with injury has stepped it up for this team. When he departs, he will be missed.

durl
07-22-2008, 08:55 AM
Closers are going to blow games (you just hope it's never 2 in a row...) so I can't be extremely upset. But the nagging disappointment is that if Cordero would have been able to hold the lead in the 9th these past 2 outings, the Reds would be 1 game away from .500. One lousy game...

Hopefully Cordero can get over this hump.

Matt700wlw
07-22-2008, 09:11 AM
Cordero blew 7 all of last season, so he's clearly off this year, which seems to be pretty typical when pitchers come to Cincinnati.


That's the frustrating thing...he's not the first pitcher to come here and do worse.

mbgrayson
07-22-2008, 09:14 AM
Aw..the sweet smell of RZ hysteria. Hardly any discusion of Cordero until two bad outings and then we are treated to the cries of 'I knew he sucked all along!'

Well, I said exactly the same thing last year when we signed Cordero. HERE (http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=63824&highlight=smarter+fill+closer+position) is the link to the thread I started on November 27th last year.


Is there real data to support the notion that Cordero gets gassed and has been ridden hard? It sure seems like he's been run out for a lot of non-save situations where someone else might have been used.


There is an interesting new Bill James stat called 'closer fatigue'. On today's front page of Bill James' web site, Francisco Cordero is listed as the most fatigued closer in MLB right now:

Tired Closers List:
Fatigue #
Francisco Cordero, Cin 68
Ryan Franklin, StL 66
Salomon Torres, Mil 63
Brandon Lyon, Ari 55
Jose Valverde, Hou 44

What is 'closer fatigue'? Here is a fair use excerpt of the explanation from James' web site (http://www.billjamesonline.net/Home.aspx):



Closer Fatigue
By Bill James

So we’re studying Mariano and the Yankees. How do we decide whether Rivera is tired?
I want to be careful about saying he is “tired”. A pitcher can be tired, after all, for any of a thousand reasons; for all I know Mariano is spending his off hours hunting carabou, as so many of the players do now. We only measure that part of his fatigue which results from his major league workload. I developed a “Closer Workload Fatigue Store”, which is as follows:
5 times the number of batters faced yesterday,
Plus 4 times the number of batters faced the day before,
Plus 3 times the number of batters faced the day before that,
Plus 2 times the number of batters faced the day before that,
Plus the number of batters faced the day before that.

Twice during the ten-year study, in August of 1997 and again in August of 2005, Mo’s Workload Fatigue Score reached a peak of 89.
On August 10, 2005, Rivera pitched two innings, facing 7 batters.
On August 11 he pitched an inning and a third, facing 5 batters.
On August 12 he didn’t pitch, but on August 13, 2005, he again pitched two innings, giving up 5 hits and facing 12 batters.
Thus, on the morning of August 14, 2005, Rivera’s Closer Workload Fatigue Score was 89—
60 points for his 12 batters faced on August 13,
15 points for his 5 batters faced on August 11,
14 points for his 7 batters faced on August 10.

I got the data for this, obviously, from Retrosheet, and once more, let me express my deep appreciation to the volunteers of Retrosheet for making real baseball research possible.
I figured Rivera’s Workload for every day of the regular season during the ten years, and then for every regular-season game the Yankees played. When the Yankees played a double header and he pitched in the first game, I added six times the batters faced in the first game to his score going into the second game. The peak point was 89, and sometimes he was at zero—after the all-star break, for example, and on opening day.

The essential conclusions of this study are as follows:
1) Rivera pitched less often when his Workload Fatigue Score was high,
2) Rivera was less effective when his Workload Fatigue Score was high, and
3) The Yankees’ winning percentage dipped quite significantly when Rivera was tired.

I sorted the data in several different ways to ward against conclusions suggested by random groupings in the data. Perhaps the most useful split was the split dividing the Yankee games into four groups:
1) High Fatigue
2) Fatigue Fairly High
3) Fatigue Fairly Low
4) Low Fatigue

These are Mariano’s Games Appearances and ERA by the four groups:
Games ERA
1) High Fatigue 90 2.71
2) Fatigue Fairly High 164 2.18
3) Fatigue Fairly Low 185 2.00
4) Low Fatigue 201 1.60

There are 405 Yankee games in each group (more or less. . .a couple of games were cancelled, so I cut a couple of the groups to 404.) When he was most rested Rivera pitched in essentially one-half the games, and posted a 1.60 ERA. As his Closer Workload Fatigue Score increased he pitched less, and his ERA ascended.
In the top group Rivera pitched in only 90 games of 405, but this is a little bit misleading because the top group includes the games for which Rivera was on the Disabled List. There were 98 Yankee games over the ten years for which Rivera was on the Disabled List, so actually Rivera pitched in 29% of the Yankee games (90 of 307) even when his fatigue score was highest, a rate of 48 appearances per 162 games.

This was one thing that surprised me in the study—that the slope of the line indicating likelihood of appearing in the game was not more steep than it is. What I take from that realization is this: that in modern baseball the closer’s role is so limited and defined that the closer is almost always available for one inning of work. I would have thought that there would be days when Rivera’s recent workload was so high that he was simply not available for this game, and no doubt there are some such days. But there aren’t very many of them. The point of the modern “closer usage” rules is, in a sense, to make the closer always available if you really need him.
The study also reached the following incidental conclusions, which I will pass along for what they are worth:
1) Rivera’s strikeout rate declined significantly as his fatigue went up. In the quartile study his strikeouts per nine innings were 8.47 in the bottom group, 6.82 when he was most fatigued, and in the sevens in the middle two groups (albeit it in the wrong order.)
2) Rivera’s double play rate also dropped sharply when his fatigue score was high. Rivera received the support of 40 double plays in 437.2 innings in the bottom two groups of the quartile study, when he was most rested. This is .82 double plays per nine innings. When his fatigue score was higher he received only 14 double plays in 269.1 innings, or .47 double plays per nine innings.
3) Rivera also allowed more home runs when he was tired, his rate per nine innings increasing from .37 to .50. When he was more rested Rivera had 40 double plays against 18 home runs allowed. When he was more tired he had 14 double plays and 15 homers.
4) However, Rivera’s WALK rate improved sharply when he was more tired. Of course, Rivera’s walk rate is always fantastic. Even when he was most rested, Rivera allowed only 2.00 walks per nine innings (not including intentional walks.) But when he was most tired this figure was essentially cut in half, down to 1.10 walks per nine innings. In the quintile split (split into five groups) Rivera allowed 1.08 and 1.11 un-intentional walks in the two “highest fatigue” groups.
Presumably, Rivera’s control “improves” when he is more tired because
1. There is more early contact, and
2. His ball doesn’t move as much, meaning that it doesn’t jump out of the strike zone as often.

Kc61
07-22-2008, 09:39 AM
Cordero blew 7 all of last season, so he's clearly off this year, which seems to be pretty typical when pitchers come to Cincinnati.


That's the frustrating thing...he's not the first pitcher to come here and do worse.

Could be overuse. I think Dusty should give Cordero more rest. I know he gets paid a lot and there's a tendency to say "he earns a lot, lets use him." But Cordero has now pitched four of the last five. No crime if somebody else closes occasionally. Weathers can do it, Lincoln is a hot pitcher he can, Affledt and Bray can. And certainly Burton when he gets back.

Cordero is headed toward a higher number of appearances and innings compared to last year. That could affect some guys.

nate
07-22-2008, 10:14 AM
Cordero blew 7 all of last season, so he's clearly off this year, which seems to be pretty typical when pitchers come to Cincinnati.

What if he doesn't blow another one this year?


That's the frustrating thing...he's not the first pitcher to come here and do worse.

Why?

Is it longitude/latitude? Water? A "suck-ray" trained on the pitcher's mound from an orbiting fleet of undetectable space aliens?

If so, has Aaron Harang previously been immune to the suck-ray? Edinson Volquez? Bronson Arroyo? Ryan Dempster certainly wasn't. Maybe it was Scott Schoenweiss and he was in cahoots with the aliens! Guardado too...that surgery wasn't to repair his arm, rather, it was to conceal an alien prehensile tail! Doc Creamcheese is on the take too...HE'S ONE OF THEM! No wonder so many injuries are misdiagnosed! Freel really screwed up when he let the whole "Farney" thing slip. "Farney" is really "Admiral F'ah Rnee" of the "Imperial Vogon Intramural Athletic and Knitting League." And he _does_ live inside of Freel's head.

I always knew there was something about those guys!

Time for a domed stadium.

RedsManRick
07-22-2008, 10:16 AM
I don't know. I believe Marty said on Saturday that Cordero had retired the side in order only 9 out of 43 chances. By my count that is 9 out of 45 chances, if he was correct on Saturday. That's not very effective, that is downright awful for someone who is being paid as the highest closer in baseball.

Unless you can show me how often most pitchers/closers throw a perfect inning, that's a pretty meaningless number. Consider that a WHIP under 1 is considered exceptional.

I'd be very interested to see a stat used for closers which shows the distribution of earned runs per appearance, 0/1/2/3+. Cordero is at 79/13/2/6.

Cordero has allowed at least 1 run in 21% of his appearances.

Matt700wlw
07-22-2008, 10:20 AM
Could be overuse. I think Dusty should give Cordero more rest. I know he gets paid a lot and there's a tendency to say "he earns a lot, lets use him." But Cordero has now pitched four of the last five. No crime if somebody else closes occasionally. Weathers can do it, Lincoln is a hot pitcher he can, Affledt and Bray can. And certainly Burton when he gets back.

Cordero is headed toward a higher number of appearances and innings compared to last year. That could affect some guys.

That could be a factor as well....he needs to stop using him in non-save situations just because he needs work, I guess.

Let him get his work on the side.

BuckeyeRedleg
07-22-2008, 10:32 AM
I think Cordero's is a stupid contract as it's a waste to overspend for the save.

I'm fine with it as long as Reds ownership sees their mistake and does not count all of his salary to whatever total number they'd like to keep the team payroll under.

Matt700wlw
07-22-2008, 10:35 AM
What if he doesn't blow another one this year?





That would be one hell of a run :)

Big Klu
07-22-2008, 10:51 AM
Well, I said exactly the same thing last year when we signed Cordero. HERE (http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=63824&highlight=smarter+fill+closer+position) is the link to the thread I started on November 27th last year.



There is an interesting new Bill James stat called 'closer fatigue'. On today's front page of Bill James' web site, Francisco Cordero is listed as the most fatigued closer in MLB right now:


What is 'closer fatigue'? Here is a fair use excerpt of the explanation from James' web site (http://www.billjamesonline.net/Home.aspx):


That is a very interesting statistic that Bill James has developed, and one that could be applied to all relievers--not just closers.

I would like to see what sort of range is considered "high", "fairly high", "fairly low", and "low". Cordero has the highest score in all of baseball right now, but into which category does he fall? (I would suspect either "high" or "fairly high".)

This stat also shows why it would be useful to have a second pitcher (Weathers or Burton) occasionally finish off a game. Intuitively, we all know that to be a good idea, but this gives statistical creedence to it.

MartyFan
07-22-2008, 11:15 AM
I can accept the argument that Cordero was overpaid, but the biggest difference between Cordero '08 and Weathers '07 is luck.

I don't think Cordero threw all that badly tonight.There were a number of close ball/strike calls, and at least one of the two balls hit to right field were catchable, had Bruce made proper reads on them.

Contrast that with Weathers' eighth inning, in which he chucked and ducked to four batters or so, and then a rookie batter took an ill-advised two strike curve ball.

For those not familiar with Cordero's history, be aware that Texas quit on him in '06 after a similar round of bad luck. Blip on the radar.

I'd like to see him be around the strike zone more early in the count. Trust his stuff. But I'll go to war with Cordero in the worst stretch of his career over David Weathers during the best stretch of his career.

This is all hind sight right now but I can remember when the Reds played the Brewers and we would get to the ninth tied or down a run and they'd bring Cordero in...I honestly wouldn't worry too much because I had seen him blow a couple saves against the Reds and other teams that year.

When he is on he is deadly, when he is off even a little bit, he is very average... Iagree that whn he is gassed he should stay in the pen and let Burton or Bray or even Weathers score the save instead.

6 games would put this team over .500...and I doubt any of us would complain about that...who am I kidding, of course we would!

MartyFan
07-22-2008, 11:16 AM
I think Cordero's is a stupid contract as it's a waste to overspend for the save.

I'm fine with it as long as Reds ownership sees their mistake and does not count all of his salary to whatever total number they'd like to keep the team payroll under.

:beerme:

WebScorpion
07-22-2008, 12:06 PM
That's the nature of Free Agency. You ALWAYS overpay. That's why a small market team should use Free Agency only to fill glaring holes. I considered the 2007 Reds' bullpen a gaping black hole, (I guess everyone else forgot,) and still think the Cordero signing was a good move. They paid what they had to pay to get him, any less and we'd be watching other pitchers blow the game in the 8th inning while Burton or Weathers waited for the 9th. All closers blow saves...it happens. I swear RedsZone has perma-bunched panties. :rolleyes:

I like that closer fatigue stat...intriguing stuff. I confess, I didn't have enough time to look at all of it, but the Mo Rivera case looked interesting. I'd like to see info on the other closers and teams usage before I'm convinced.

BuckeyeRedleg
07-22-2008, 12:48 PM
That's the nature of Free Agency. You ALWAYS overpay. That's why a small market team should use Free Agency only to fill glaring holes. I considered the 2007 Reds' bullpen a gaping black hole, (I guess everyone else forgot,) and still think the Cordero signing was a good move. They paid what they had to pay to get him, any less and we'd be watching other pitchers blow the game in the 8th inning while Burton or Weathers waited for the 9th. All closers blow saves...it happens. I swear RedsZone has perma-bunched panties. :rolleyes:

It was a bad contract then and it looks even worse now. That is not an overreaction. It's common sense. Throwing money around just for the sake of throwing money around is not good business. Many supported the Milton deal for the same reason. It helps everyone else out. It still does not justify burning the cash.

Cordero is 33. He will be 37 by the time his contract is up. He may have already hit his prime. He will regress as he ages. This will a hard Milton-like contract to move the longer we wait.

He has failed six times already. That wouldn't be a big deal if he had more opportunities, but the Reds only give him so many save opportunities, being the average to below-average team that they are. Again, this club is not a good team, so wasting 50 million on an aging closer is not the best use of company resources.

At this point he would need to convert 13 straight chances just to have the same rate as Weathers did last year. Sure, blown saves happen, however the guy has just killed this team twice in the past 5 days and as unfair as it may seem, he cannot do that 25% of the time, especially with the money he is making.

Saves are stupid. Closers are benefiting big time from this stupid stat. They have made millions of dollars from it. They get to occupy half of the pitcher's spots on the All-Star rosters. They are overrated and lucky that their little stat is so overvalued by so many clubs. With that said, they should expect to take the good from the bad and feel the heat when they aren't converting, especially when they make 10% (15% the next 3 years) of the team's payroll.

If they can't dump his contract before it gets ridiculous, I would hope that BCast is fair to the fans and does not factor the overpay of Dusty and Cordero when he determines future payroll limit.

remdog
07-22-2008, 01:09 PM
I swear RedsZone has perma-bunched panties. :rolleyes:

:clap::clap::clap:

Rem

remdog
07-22-2008, 01:18 PM
David Weathers had me busting out in a cold sweat every time that he came into a game last year and I still get that feeling this year even if he's pitching the 7th or 8th inning. I would love to trade him.

Part of the problem with Cordero is that the Reds signed him ack-basswords: they signed the 'closer' before they had all their 'openers' lined up. Volquez and Cueto have been a great development but when they signed Coco those two performing like they have was just someone's pipe dream. Unfortunately, Harang's problems and Arroyo's inconsistancy have pretty much negated the Volquez and Cueto positives.

The Reds signed Cordero as though they were going to be in the race till the last day of the season. Unfortunately they neglected to fill some of the other requirements like SS, C, RF/CF and bench.

In the end, other than the money, signing Cordero is a moot point.

Rem

hebroncougar
07-22-2008, 01:21 PM
Unless you can show me how often most pitchers/closers throw a perfect inning, that's a pretty meaningless number. Consider that a WHIP under 1 is considered exceptional.

I'd be very interested to see a stat used for closers which shows the distribution of earned runs per appearance, 0/1/2/3+. Cordero is at 79/13/2/6.

Cordero has allowed at least 1 run in 21% of his appearances.

I'm not saying it's all important, but it's a pretty good indicator of how many baserunners you are allowing (like WHIP). It just stuck in my head because Marty related it to his struggles. Just using Yahoo's game logs,

Papelbon is 20 of 42 appearances w/o a baserunner.
Rivera is 19 of 40
Lidge is 16 of 41
Wagner is 25 of 40
KRod is 17 of 47

So by those standards, Cordero is struggling as well.

RedsManRick
07-22-2008, 01:22 PM
I'm not saying it's all important, but it's a pretty good indicator of how many baserunners you are allowing (like WHIP). It just stuck in my head because Marty related it to his struggles. Just using Yahoo's game logs,

Papelbon is 20 of 42 appearances w/o a baserunner.
Rivera is 19 of 40
Lidge is 16 of 41
Wagner is 25 of 40
KRod is 17 of 47

So by those standards, Cordero is struggling as well.

I think you highlight the problem. Cordero is getting paid like a first teir closer when he's pretty clearly a second teir one. You could add Nathan and arguably JJ Putz to the above list.

He's paid like he's one of the 10 best relievers in baseball, when he's obviously not.

Reds1
07-22-2008, 01:23 PM
I can accept the argument that Cordero was overpaid, but the biggest difference between Cordero '08 and Weathers '07 is luck.

I don't think Cordero threw all that badly tonight.There were a number of close ball/strike calls, and at least one of the two balls hit to right field were catchable, had Bruce made proper reads on them.

Contrast that with Weathers' eighth inning, in which he chucked and ducked to four batters or so, and then a rookie batter took an ill-advised two strike curve ball.

For those not familiar with Cordero's history, be aware that Texas quit on him in '06 after a similar round of bad luck. Blip on the radar.

I'd like to see him be around the strike zone more early in the count. Trust his stuff. But I'll go to war with Cordero in the worst stretch of his career over David Weathers during the best stretch of his career.

Agree. I was at the game and right behind home plate. Coco had a second SO that was not called and he was getting squeezed. Everyone was talking about the inconsistancy. The defense was also shacky. I think griffey would have made the catch that Bruce misread. Game over - he wins and this thread is not even written. Take away his last 2 blown saves and the numbers look amazingly different. Not he's not lights out, but I'm not ready to say this was a bad signing. I was with a brewers fan and they wish they had him back. We still neeed him. Hope he just get's it back together and he doesn't start down the path of getting worse. He's pitching too much I think. thanks

BuckeyeRedleg
07-22-2008, 01:29 PM
Although I think he's an average closer, it seems that umps have really screwed him this year.

Falls City Beer
07-22-2008, 01:34 PM
Cordero's a set-up man who had a career year last year. Nothing more.

I'd DL the guy, then "bring him back slowly" in the 7th and 8th innings for a while. If for no other reason than give the young pitchers a chance to have some wins wrapped up for them now and again. Boost their confidence a little.

I'll finally join the chorus of Dusty-haters if he sends Cordero out tonight in a save situation. That would be an absolute disaster.

cincinnati chili
07-22-2008, 02:07 PM
Cordero's a set-up man who had a career year last year. Nothing more.


Or one could say he's a closer who had a bad stretch in early 2006 and early 2008.

More often than not he's pitched like a closer.

In his career, he's had a combined 295 save and hold opportunities. Of that, he's converted 84.4%.

I agree he's not "elite," and I agree he's overpaid, but that percentage is very respectable. He's a closer.

To give some perspective, the Mariano Riveras and Trevor Hoffmans of the world are up around 89%.

Johnny Footstool
07-22-2008, 02:25 PM
I love how we're accusing Cordero of blowing "important" wins, as if there are some wins that don't really matter.

Cooper
07-22-2008, 03:26 PM
Not sure how this relates: usually the umps open up the strike zone in the 9th inning. Some umps do so by 2 or 3 inches. That last batter of the game -it might be 2 or 3 inches on each side.

If it's the last game of the series and the umps are getting out of town -he'll really widen the thing up.

_Sir_Charles_
07-22-2008, 04:06 PM
Cordero blew 7 all of last season, so he's clearly off this year, which seems to be pretty typical when pitchers come to Cincinnati.


That's the frustrating thing...he's not the first pitcher to come here and do worse.

I'd attribute a good portion of that to our long defensive drought. We haven't had a solid defensive team in quite some time now. Any pitcher is going to look worse than they really are when the fielders are kicking the ball around. But he's also been in a bit of a slump too...it's not ALL the fault of the defense. But it certainly doesn't help.

Cordero will be fine.

GAC
07-22-2008, 07:43 PM
What bothers me about Cordero is that in 46 innings he has given up 28 BBs. His K/BB rate is 1.75. Simply atrocious.

fearofpopvol1
07-22-2008, 08:02 PM
Cordero's a set-up man who had a career year last year. Nothing more.

I'd DL the guy, then "bring him back slowly" in the 7th and 8th innings for a while. If for no other reason than give the young pitchers a chance to have some wins wrapped up for them now and again. Boost their confidence a little.

I'll finally join the chorus of Dusty-haters if he sends Cordero out tonight in a save situation. That would be an absolute disaster.

With Peavy on the mound, it's not likely the Reds will get ahead tonight. Unless the Padres bullpen blows it.