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LouisvilleCARDS
07-22-2008, 09:29 PM
Just looking at all the people in the game thread who bashed Dusty for leaving Bako in and letting Votto bat for the pitcher instead of for Bako. Bako base hit, 2 RBI's, Votto hit, tie game. The Monday morning QB's just got owned. :laugh:

Griffey012
07-22-2008, 09:38 PM
No, they will just come on and say Dusty got lucky even though any good manager would play the odds and go with your better hitter. Even though Dusty constantly gets ripped on when he plays the odds and the odds fail.

757690
07-22-2008, 09:54 PM
"Getting a deuce when you hit on 19 doesn't mean it's a toss up and the odds don't matter. Baker made a bad choice and got a good result. It happens sometimes." --RedsManRick

This is what RMR said in the game thread tonight. I am a big blackjack player, and I can tell you that the difference in batting Bako in that spot compared to Votto is more like hitting on 12 against a 3. You are not supposed to do it, but people do it all the time and win. The difference in their OBP in that situation is around .040 The odds against hitting a 12 against a 3 are around 52-48. Hitting on a 19 is an almost guaranteed loss, around 85-15. That would be like batting Cueto instead of Votto. I am surprised that RMR, being a stat guru, would be so off on that.

LouisvilleCARDS
07-22-2008, 10:05 PM
"Getting a deuce when you hit on 19 doesn't mean it's a toss up and the odds don't matter. Baker made a bad choice and got a good result. It happens sometimes." --RedsManRick

This is what RMR said in the game thread tonight. I am a big blackjack player, and I can tell you that the difference in batting Bako in that spot compared to Votto is more like hitting on 12 against a 3. You are not supposed to do it, but people do it all the time and win. The difference in their OBP in that situation is around .040 The odds against hitting a 12 against a 3 are around 52-48. Hitting on a 19 is an almost guaranteed loss, around 85-15. That would be like batting Cueto instead of Votto. I am surprised that RMR, being a stat guru, would be so off on that.

Bako has also come up big in clutch situations over the years, I've noticed, including several times this year. I remember him torching us constantly with the Cubs, for a couple of huge hit games. Also to note, once you take Bak oout, then you burn the pitcher, who do you put in? Cabrera who struck out later on? Even if Votto got a hit, we would still be down, and with the way the offense is going, it would be worthless.

Newman4
07-22-2008, 10:06 PM
The old proverb says "even a blind squirrel finds a nut occasionally"

TheBigLebowski
07-22-2008, 10:18 PM
"Getting a deuce when you hit on 19 doesn't mean it's a toss up and the odds don't matter. Baker made a bad choice and got a good result. It happens sometimes." --RedsManRick

This is what RMR said in the game thread tonight. I am a big blackjack player, and I can tell you that the difference in batting Bako in that spot compared to Votto is more like hitting on 12 against a 3. You are not supposed to do it, but people do it all the time and win. The difference in their OBP in that situation is around .040 The odds against hitting a 12 against a 3 are around 52-48. Hitting on a 19 is an almost guaranteed loss, around 85-15. That would be like batting Cueto instead of Votto. I am surprised that RMR, being a stat guru, would be so off on that.

Wow...you're really running wild with this quote, aren't you? As I said in my reply to you in the Cordero thread, you're applying your blackjack logic way too literally. He was saying that Dusty made a bad decision and the outcome does not justify it. Nothing more.

757690
07-22-2008, 10:37 PM
Wow...you're really running wild with this quote, aren't you? As I said in my reply to you in the Cordero thread, you're applying your blackjack logic way too literally. He was saying that Dusty made a bad decision and the outcome does not justify it. Nothing more.

But my point was that Dusty's was statistically wrong, but that it was so close that you can't blame him for making the decision he did. RMR made it seem like that there was no way that move would work out, and it was sheer blind luck that it did.

Let's put it this way, if Dusty batted Votto instead of Bako there 100 times, Votto would get on base just 4 more times, if the stats held true. RMR's analogy made it seem like Votto would get a hit 80 more times than Bako. I

And throw in many other factors, like the fact that Votto had never seen Peavy, and that taking Bako out meant that Valentin would have to catch, or that Bako is a veteran and Votto is a rookie, and the statistical difference becomes even more insignificant.

It was not a bad decision, just a controversial one. That quote is a perfect example of Dusty haters letting their emotions and personal feelings about Dusty get in the way of logic and reason.

TheBigLebowski
07-22-2008, 10:42 PM
But my point was that Dusty's was statistically wrong, but that it was so close that you can't blame him for making the decision he did. RMR made it seem like that there was no way that move would work out, and it was sheer blind luck that it did.

Let's put it this way, if Dusty batted Votto instead of Bako there 100 times, Votto would get on base just 4 more times, if the stats held true. RMR's analogy made it seem like Votto would get a hit 80 more times than Bako. I

And throw in many other factors, like the fact that Votto had never seen Peavy, and that taking Bako out meant that Valentin would have to catch, or that Bako is a veteran and Votto is a rookie, and the statistical difference becomes even more insignificant.

It was not a bad decision, just a controversial one. That quote is a perfect example of Dusty haters letting their emotions and personal feelings about Dusty get in the way of logic and reason.

Come on. Votto is approx a .280 hitter and Bako a .215 hitter with a lifetime average of approx .230. Bako had struck out weakly twice leading up to that ab. Had Dusty PH'd Votto for Bako it would have been a seamless transition - Votto to 1B and Pornstache behind the dish.

Are you really telling me that you believe the difference in offensive capability between Bako and Votto is basically a statistical push? You simply can't be making that argument.

757690
07-22-2008, 10:49 PM
Come on. Votto is approx a .280 hitter and Bako a .215 hitter with a lifetime average of approx .230. Bako had struck out weakly twice leading up to that ab. Had Dusty PH'd Votto for Bako it would have been a seamless transition - Votto to 1B and Pornstache behind the dish.

Are you really telling me that you believe the difference in offensive capability between Bako and Votto is basically a statistical push? You simply can't be making that argument.

lifetime OBP against RH

Bako .316
Votto .344

2 outs RISP

Bako .357
Votto .264

Base loaded

Bako .313
Votto .157

You are right. It is not a push, it looks like Bako is better in that situation.

TheBigLebowski
07-22-2008, 11:05 PM
lifetime OBP against RH

Bako .316
Votto .344

2 outs RISP

Bako .357
Votto .264

Base loaded

Bako .313
Votto .157

You are right. It is not a push, it looks like Bako is better in that situation.

Ok, Mr. Blackjack expert...considering you are obviously a gambler, would you place your hand upon a Bible (or your religious book of choice) and swear that you would wager your hard-earned money that Paul Bako is a better hitter than Joey Votto? I seriously doubt it.

I am amazed that I am in an argument with someone about Votto and Bako and the point of contention is hitting. Maybe I'm the crazy one for perpetuating this.

757690
07-22-2008, 11:31 PM
Ok, Mr. Blackjack expert...considering you are obviously a gambler, would you place your hand upon a Bible (or your religious book of choice) and swear that you would wager your hard-earned money that Paul Bako is a better hitter than Joey Votto? I seriously doubt it.

I am amazed that I am in an argument with someone about Votto and Bako and the point of contention is hitting. Maybe I'm the crazy one for perpetuating this.

Votto is a better hitter than Bako. I would have pinch hit Votto for Bako.

But that is not my point. The point is that statistically there is not much difference between Votto and Bako in that situation. Let's put it this way, if I had to wager on it, I would bet nearly the same amount of money on Votto getting a hit in that situation as I would on Bako getting a hit.

RMR made it seem like the odds of Bako getting a hit were 1-30 and Votto 1-3. I was just pointing out that he was wrong in his statistical analysis, by a very large margin.

All in all, I am just glad the Reds won, no matter how.

Jr's Boy
07-23-2008, 01:00 AM
And for all you craps players,''A 7-11 roll on the Dusty Dice''.:D

ChatterRed
07-23-2008, 01:05 AM
The old proverb says "even a blind squirrel finds a nut occasionally"


You beat me to it. That was going to be my provincial wisdom of a post. :beerme:

NarrowStairs
07-23-2008, 03:08 AM
Just looking at all the people in the game thread who bashed Dusty for leaving Bako in and letting Votto bat for the pitcher instead of for Bako. Bako base hit, 2 RBI's, Votto hit, tie game. The Monday morning QB's just got owned. :laugh:

Bako was so fortunate to get a hit there. He made piss poor contact and it just happened to squeak through the IF (which overplayed the pull)

keeganbrick
07-23-2008, 05:22 AM
lifetime OBP against RH

Bako .316
Votto .344

2 outs RISP

Bako .357
Votto .264

Base loaded

Bako .313
Votto .157
You are right. It is not a push, it looks like Bako is better in that situation.
Great sample size :rolleyes: