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kaldaniels
07-24-2008, 12:59 AM
Thought I'd start a thread for off-day discussion on the 3 game set.

Colorado is the worst road team in the bigs, 14-36. The Reds are 3 games under .500. Wouldn't it be nice....

WVRedsFan
07-24-2008, 01:34 AM
Here's my take.

Friday - Cook vs. Volquez. Let's hope we see the real Volquez because Cook is tough. He's also a 12 game winner. Toss up. Hope the bats are alive.

Saturday - De La Rosa vs. Bailey. Hope the better Homer shows up, but De La Rosa is a lefty which is Kryptonite to the Reds. This has to be a Reds win or we are really in trouble. Homer has to pitch well and we have to hit. Should be interesting.

Sunday - Jiminez vs. TBA. Will Fogg make it back and will be feeling well enough to pitch well? If not, who will pitch. Jiminez has a 3.98 ERA and has a complete game under his belt the last time out, so this is a toughy to figure out because we don't know who'll be on the mound for us.

This series, with only Volquez from the front of the rotation pitching, is pivital. We could sweep with a little luck, but we could also be swept or go 1-2. Colorado appears to have two pretty good pitchers going while we only have one.

Keep your fingers crossed.

Homer Bailey
07-24-2008, 01:54 AM
The Reds have been a lot better against lefties this year.

Reds/Flyers Fan
07-24-2008, 03:10 AM
Colorado is playing well since the ASB, having just took two of three from the Dodgers and sweeping the Pirates = two teams that Cincinnati flat-out just can't beat.

Rockies are also closer to first in their division than the Reds - although their division is hapless.

Volquez is the key in Game 1 ... is he for real or 2008's Jack Armstrong?

mth123
07-24-2008, 06:15 AM
Here's my take.

Friday - Cook vs. Volquez. Let's hope we see the real Volquez because Cook is tough. He's also a 12 game winner. Toss up. Hope the bats are alive.

Saturday - De La Rosa vs. Bailey. Hope the better Homer shows up, but De La Rosa is a lefty which is Kryptonite to the Reds. This has to be a Reds win or we are really in trouble. Homer has to pitch well and we have to hit. Should be interesting.

Sunday - Jiminez vs. TBA. Will Fogg make it back and will be feeling well enough to pitch well? If not, who will pitch. Jiminez has a 3.98 ERA and has a complete game under his belt the last time out, so this is a toughy to figure out because we don't know who'll be on the mound for us.

This series, with only Volquez from the front of the rotation pitching, is pivital. We could sweep with a little luck, but we could also be swept or go 1-2. Colorado appears to have two pretty good pitchers going while we only have one.

Keep your fingers crossed.

Cueto will have 4 full days rest and could go Sunday if Fogg needs another day. If Fogg still isn't ready on Monday, it would be Ramon Ramirez turn at AAA and he could go (with Coffey sent down). Even if Fogg is ready, I'd probably switch Coffey and Ramirez and let Ramirez pitch out of the pen.

Ramirez started the season poorly, but his last 10 games include 7 starts and 3 appearances from the pen. In 45.333 IP, 28H, 20BB, 41K, 14ER and an ERA of 2.80. Ramirez as a swingman/long reliever/spot starter for the last 2+ months would be a nice audition. A nice scenario by the end of the month is that Harang comes back and steps into the rotation, Ramirez takes the spot starter/long relief role and Fogg is dealt for a prospect.

RedlegJake
07-24-2008, 06:58 AM
I like the Reds to take 2 of 3. Right now the Reds are riding a moderate wave of success and nothing is going on that makes me think they won't continue the current roll. Dunn and EE are hot. BP and Votto are so-so lately but BP faces the lefty in game two and he eats lefties alive. The bullpen has a day off today which helps and Cordero should be rested. Game one should be a real duel between Cook and Volquez - the better bullpen may decide the outcome.

PuffyPig
07-24-2008, 09:05 AM
Here's my take.

.... but De La Rosa is a lefty which is Kryptonite to the Reds.

This point has been made a thousand times, but people keep getting it wrong.

The Reds hit LH pitching quite a bit better than RH pitching.

princeton
07-24-2008, 09:10 AM
The Reds have been a lot better against lefties this year.

isn't that weird?

.790 OPS vs. RHPers in '07; .732 vs. LHPers. Similar numbers in '06 IIRC

Conversely, in '08: .721 OPS vs. RHPers; .772 vs. LHPers


obviously, we need to add another lefty bat ;)

Raisor
07-24-2008, 09:10 AM
This point has been made a thousand times, but people keep getting it wrong.

The Reds hit LH pitching quite a bit better than RH pitching.

Yep

VLHP
352/420

vsRHP
315/405

WVRedsFan
07-24-2008, 10:25 AM
That's strange. then why is it we struggle so much (it appears) when we go against a left hander?

Raisor
07-24-2008, 10:29 AM
That's strange. then why is it we struggle so much (it appears) when we go against a left hander?

The Reds are 2nd in the NL in runs scored vs LHP, so it depends on what you mean by "struggle".

If they're struggling to win against LHP, you'll need to look at the Reds' pitching.

Falls City Beer
07-24-2008, 10:33 AM
Soft-tossing righties are the *real* Reds' kryptonite.

LincolnparkRed
07-24-2008, 10:36 AM
Soft-tossing righties are the *real* Reds' kryptonite.

Or someone they haven't seen. We have to be the first win of most of the young pitchers doing the AAA /MLB shuttle the last few years

M2
07-24-2008, 10:41 AM
isn't that weird?

.790 OPS vs. RHPers in '07; .732 vs. LHPers. Similar numbers in '06 IIRC

Conversely, in '08: .721 OPS vs. RHPers; .772 vs. LHPers


obviously, we need to add another lefty bat ;)

And in '06: .820 OPS vs. LH, .749 OPS vs. RH

The hysterics last season and early this season over the team's ability to hit southpaws can hopefully be seen as needless hand-wringing. Meanwhile, you can never have too many quality LH sticks.

oneupper
07-24-2008, 11:00 AM
And in '08: .820 OPS vs. LH, .749 OPS vs. RH

The hysterics last season and early this season over the team's ability to hit southpaws can hopefully be seen as needless hand-wringing. Meanwhile, you can never have too many quality LH sticks.

A few changes can cause a "turnaround" such as this.

Kepp took over for Gonzalez and has very extreme splits (OPS over 1.000 vs. LH, under .600 vs RH).
Hairston took over for Freel. Freel failed against LH last year, Hairston has thrived.
Phillips' splits have become even more extreme.
Votto took over for Hatteberg and has hit lefties well (which Hat didn't do).

In those four moves, there were no switches in the "handedness" but certainly in the results.

Surprisingly, some opposing teams still accomodate their rotation to throw lefties at us..which they probably shouldn't worry about now.

princeton
07-24-2008, 11:07 AM
And in '08: .820 OPS vs. LH, .749 OPS vs. RH.

another reason to collect all of the LHHers in the league: so they can't bat against us.

cincinnati chili
07-24-2008, 09:40 PM
Getting back to the initial topic. The Rox have been nearly flawless since the all-star break except for one start by Kip Wells, where he gave up something like 8 runs without an out. Even in that game the Rox scored 10 runs, so it wasn't like they quit. In the other 6 games since the break, the Rox have not allowed more than 3 runs (all in Coors). Meanwhile, they've averaged over 7 runs scored.

Fortunately, it's looking like the Reds will get to face Kip Wells one time before he gets released (Jeff Francis isn't looking to be ready). So if the Reds can take the game that Wells throws and one more (2 out of 3), there's no shame in that.

Falls City Beer
07-24-2008, 09:57 PM
Getting back to the initial topic. The Rox have been nearly flawless since the all-star break except for one start by Kip Wells, where he gave up something like 8 runs without an out. Even in that game the Rox scored 10 runs, so it wasn't like they quit. In the other 6 games since the break, the Rox have not allowed more than 3 runs (all in Coors). Meanwhile, they've averaged over 7 runs scored.

Fortunately, it's looking like the Reds will get to face Kip Wells one time before he gets released (Jeff Francis isn't looking to be ready). So if the Reds can take the game that Wells throws and one more (2 out of 3), there's no shame in that.

Yeah, the Reds and Rox are pretty similar teams. Good young pitchers, some gimpy vets, streaky offense.

I'll guess the Reds get pasted tomorrow night, but win the next two after that. (Reds have been atrocious after an off day this season).

WVRedsFan
07-25-2008, 12:18 AM
Yeah, the Reds and Rox are pretty similar teams. Good young pitchers, some gimpy vets, streaky offense.

I'll guess the Reds get pasted tomorrow night, but win the next two after that. (Reds have been atrocious after an off day this season).

The only thing that stops that pasting is if Volquez is "on," which is always going to be a question mark. The kid's got great stuff, but he's a kid and we who have children know how that goes.

Funny, but I see Saturday as a loss and maybe Sunday a toss up (depending on who is pitching). Either way, I'll take 2 of 3 and move on. 1-2 would be a disappointment and a Colorado sweep would be a disaster.

Ron Madden
07-25-2008, 04:02 AM
That's strange. then why is it we struggle so much (it appears) when we go against a left hander?

Truth is the Reds don't struggle against lefties as much as our radio announcers and beat writers claim they do.

;)

GAC
07-25-2008, 09:03 AM
Other then the series with the Brewers in early August, 14 of our next 17 games are against some pretty mediocre-to-poor teams.

The question is.... can the Reds capitalize? It's those sub-.500 teams that seem to give us a rough time.

There is 6.5 games that separate us from the Cards right now. We face off against the Cards on the 15th of next month. Between now and then the Cards have a pretty tough schedule.... Mets, Braves, Phillies, Dodgers, Cubs, Marlins.

I'd love to be above .500 and breathing down their necks when that mid-August series arrives at the GABP.

A guy can dream. ;)

Spring~Fields
07-25-2008, 09:39 AM
This isnít the April, May, June Reds of the past that some were, okay, we were so accustomed to.



BA OBP SLG OPS
Adam Dunn .305 .403 .780 1.182
E. Encarnacion .345 .426 .741 1.168
David Ross .308 .500 .654 1.154
J. Valentin .438 .438 .813 1.250
K. Griffey Jr. .269 .395 .493 .888
Jay Bruce .263 .300 .434 .734
B. Phillips .260 .293 .403 .695
Joey Votto .242 .324 .333 .658
J. Keppinger .208 .250 .264 .514

This is the present day, July Reds, some folks havenít read the stats memo, :fineprint and are not up to speed, there have been some changes

Phillips, Votto, Keppinger and Bruce will reawaken before too long also and have their spurts.



C. Patterson .200 .273 .200 .473
Andy Phillips .200 .200 .300 .500
Paul Bako .152 .243 .152 .395

Then there is the list of somethings never change.

membengal
07-25-2008, 09:46 AM
Other then the series with the Brewers in early August, 14 of our next 17 games are against some pretty mediocre-to-poor teams.

The question is.... can the Reds capitalize? It's those sub-.500 teams that seem to give us a rough time.

There is 6.5 games that separate us from the Cards right now. We face off against the Cards on the 15th of next month. Between now and then the Cards have a pretty tough schedule.... Mets, Braves, Phillies, Dodgers, Cubs, Marlins.

I'd love to be above .500 and breathing down their necks when that mid-August series arrives at the GABP.

A guy can dream. ;)

No need to dream, I still maintain the Reds are tracking the Cardinals down. The schedule has finally flipped, and St. Louis is getting a dose of what the Reds dealt with in terms of the difficult teams.

Spring~Fields
07-25-2008, 10:38 AM
Other then the series with the Brewers in early August, 14 of our next 17 games are against some pretty mediocre-to-poor teams.

The question is.... can the Reds capitalize? It's those sub-.500 teams that seem to give us a rough time.

There is 6.5 games that separate us from the Cards right now. We face off against the Cards on the 15th of next month. Between now and then the Cards have a pretty tough schedule.... Mets, Braves, Phillies, Dodgers, Cubs, Marlins.

I'd love to be above .500 and breathing down their necks when that mid-August series arrives at the GABP.

A guy can dream. ;)

The Present
6/20/08 to the present
17 wins
12 loses
17/29 .586 win pct.

6/28/08 to the present
14 wins
8 loses
14/22 .636 win pct.

Current Results
Season Record
50 - 53 .485 win pct.

103 games played, 59 game remaining



CENTRAL W L PCT
Chicago Cubs 60 42 .588
Milwaukee 59 43 .578
St. Louis 57 47 .548
Cincinnati 50 53 .485


The Projected

.586 * 59 34.574 additional wins projection
.636 * 59 37.524 additional wins projection

50 wins + 34.574 84 wins projected
50 wins + 37.524 87 wins projected

The Past
Those Corey Patterson days, and those lineups constructed as they were along with those well over 25 + 2 runs or less games may come back to really haunt us.

REDREAD
07-25-2008, 11:12 AM
That's strange. then why is it we struggle so much (it appears) when we go against a left hander?


We started off the year struggling against LH pitchers, but then the team really improved.

durl
07-25-2008, 11:20 AM
I'm thinking the Reds will take 2 out of 3. Hopefully the LH guys in our lineup will get the win tonight against the Righty. Still, the Rockies have definitely been putting up better numbers lately. I don't think winning the series will be a walk in the park.

PuffyPig
07-25-2008, 04:43 PM
The only thing that stops that pasting is if Volquez is "on," which is always going to be a question mark.

It's seldolm been a question mark this year. Especially at home, where he is undefeated.

OnBaseMachine
07-25-2008, 04:59 PM
It's seldolm been a question mark this year. Especially at home, where he is undefeated.

Exactly. Volquez has been on more than anyone in baseball this year.

Falls City Beer
07-25-2008, 05:55 PM
Volquez has been excellent obviously. But even an excellent starter--especially a young one--will struggle. And he has recently. The key will be the offense, IMO. They have to get to the soft-tossing righty. A battle of the pens still might favor the Reds.

cincinnati chili
07-26-2008, 11:40 AM
Anybody still think 2 out of 3 is going to happen for the Reds?

Reds/Flyers Fan
07-26-2008, 01:00 PM
Anybody still think 2 out of 3 is going to happen for the Reds?

No. Rockies just beat the best we have. And their offense is scary good, too bad they don't seem to always realize that

Falls City Beer
07-26-2008, 01:27 PM
Anybody still think 2 out of 3 is going to happen for the Reds?

Yeah. Volquez has been in a freefall for about three weeks--it was going to happen. So right now, the Rockies just got to the Reds' most vulnerable pitcher.

I think the offense will clobber De La Rosa tonight. And I think the offense will give Jimenez some difficulties. It's those weak-armed righties that destroy this offense.

cincinnati chili
07-26-2008, 02:55 PM
You never know what you're going to get with De La Rosa. His stuff is good; his location is not.

I think Ubaldo is going to be tough on the Reds. He's pitching with a lot of confidence right now.

I think the most likely scenario now is a 2-1 series win for the Rox, but I see a Rox sweep more likely than the Reds winning the next two.

Big Klu
07-26-2008, 03:04 PM
Yeah. Volquez has been in a freefall for about three weeks--it was going to happen. So right now, the Rockies just got to the Reds' most vulnerable pitcher.

I think the offense will clobber De La Rosa tonight. And I think the offense will give Jimenez some difficulties. It's those weak-armed righties that destroy this offense.

I agree. Volquez was shaky in his last start before the All-Star break, he was shaky in the All-Star Game, and he has been shaky in each of his two starts since the break.

WVRedsFan
07-26-2008, 03:12 PM
FCB speaks the truth. In his last nine starts, Volquez has averaged 5.2 innings, allowing over 6 hits. His ERA since June 9th is 5.09. In his last five starts, the figures are pretty much the same. Over 5 ERA, more hits than innings pitched and not many strikeouts.

I have to wonder if the kid is tired. Brantley mentioned something about his mechanics last night and said it had been going on for awhile. The truth is that he's hardly been an ace since early June. That's a big load to put on a youngster. He may be worn out for this year. Time will tell.

Jpup
07-26-2008, 03:59 PM
Volquez has been excellent obviously. But even an excellent starter--especially a young one--will struggle. And he has recently. The key will be the offense, IMO. They have to get to the soft-tossing righty. A battle of the pens still might favor the Reds.

There is nothing soft tossing about Aaron Cook. He throws in the low 90s most of the time. He's excellent.

OnBaseMachine
07-26-2008, 05:16 PM
I agree. Volquez was shaky in his last start before the All-Star break, he was shaky in the All-Star Game, and he has been shaky in each of his two starts since the break.

He allowed 1 ER in 7 IP with 10 K's in his start before the ASB.

Falls City Beer
07-26-2008, 05:32 PM
He allowed 1 ER in 7 IP with 10 K's in his start before the ASB.

The Ks have been there; I'm not worried at all about him. But he was going to struggle at some point--no way around that.

Falls City Beer
07-26-2008, 05:33 PM
There is nothing soft tossing about Aaron Cook. He throws in the low 90s most of the time. He's excellent.

Cook is a certified junkballer. A good one, but a junkballer.

cincinnati chili
07-26-2008, 07:41 PM
Cook throws a sinker. I think of junkballers as being susceptible to implosion because of the home run on a hanging breaking ball. Cook has had a very good homer rate for 3 straight years.

More importantly, he's had one of the best groundball/flyball ratios of any starting pitcher over the last 3 years

2006 (minimum 140 innings):
1. Brandon Webb 4.06
2. Derek Lowe 3.99
3. Chien-Ming Wang 3.06
4. Jake Westbrook 3.01
5. Aaron Cook 2.77

2007 (minimum 140 innings):
1. Derek Lowe 3.46
2. Sergio Mitre 3.40
3. Brandon Webb 3.34
4. Fausto Carmona 3.28
5. Aaron Cook 2.78

2008 (minimum 140 innings):
1. Tim Hudson 2.51
2. Aaron Cook 2.37

If you throw that many ground balls, and the flyballs that you do throw rarely leave the park, you'll win a lot of games.

I was skeptical of Aaron Cook in 2005. But his success has become too consistent to be fluky.

Falls City Beer
07-26-2008, 08:41 PM
Cook throws a sinker. I think of junkballers as being susceptible to implosion because of the home run on a hanging breaking ball. Cook has had a very good homer rate for 3 straight years.

More importantly, he's had one of the best groundball/flyball ratios of any starting pitcher over the last 3 years

2006 (minimum 140 innings):
1. Brandon Webb 4.06
2. Derek Lowe 3.99
3. Chien-Ming Wang 3.06
4. Jake Westbrook 3.01
5. Aaron Cook 2.77

2007 (minimum 140 innings):
1. Derek Lowe 3.46
2. Sergio Mitre 3.40
3. Brandon Webb 3.34
4. Fausto Carmona 3.28
5. Aaron Cook 2.78

2008 (minimum 140 innings):
1. Tim Hudson 2.51
2. Aaron Cook 2.37

If you throw that many ground balls, and the flyballs that you do throw rarely leave the park, you'll win a lot of games.

I was skeptical of Aaron Cook in 2005. But his success has become too consistent to be fluky.

Two kinds of sinker pitchers: the Kevin Brown type and the Danny Graves type.

Webb is the former kind and Cook is the latter kind. One gets the groundball and the K; the other gets the groundball and the occasional K.

OnBaseMachine
07-26-2008, 08:52 PM
The Ks have been there; I'm not worried at all about him. But he was going to struggle at some point--no way around that.

Agreed.

Matt700wlw
07-26-2008, 08:56 PM
Agreed.

That may be first for you two...:)

KronoRed
07-26-2008, 08:59 PM
Could lead to the world ending :help:

Big Klu
07-27-2008, 02:58 AM
He allowed 1 ER in 7 IP with 10 K's in his start before the ASB.

Sorry...maybe it was the start before that one. But I seem to remember a not-so-great start shortly before the break.

Spring~Fields
07-27-2008, 08:13 AM
Sorry...maybe it was the start before that one. But I seem to remember a not-so-great start shortly before the break.


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