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princeton
07-24-2008, 08:59 AM
the Reds have outscored the opposition by 21 runs over the past 22 games, and has a lot of games against teams that are in front of us in division and WC. it'd be good if Mets or Phils, one, would go on a long bad streak. Could happen.

also, Reds have the starting pitching to surprise in a playoff series, and there is not a great team in the NL. So there is a road to the WS, even if unlikely

Reds have done a lot of good work with Aaron Harang on the side. I read that Harang threw well recently. I don't know how accurate that is, but I'll take it for what it says for now.

bullpen is definitely taxed, however. There have been a lot of close games this month in particular.

given who owns team and who is its GM, and given the state of the market, I think that we'll try be buyers before deadline, and try to sign Dunn before end of August. just my take.

(now watch us drop four straight and foist Dunn upon li'l Hank Steinbrenner...)

Johnny Footstool
07-24-2008, 10:02 AM
The Reds are currently 3 games better than their expected Pythag record. And they're 18-9 in one-run games, good for the second-best winning percentage in the majors (the Brewers' is slightly better).

Unfortunately, those things don't bode well for the future.

princeton
07-24-2008, 10:04 AM
The Reds are currently 3 games better than their expected Pythag record. And they're 18-9 in one-run games, good for the second-best winning percentage in the majors (the Brewers' is slightly better).

Unfortunately, those things don't bode well for the future.


but outscoring the opposition by a run a game, even without your Cy Young candidate, does.

small sample size, or genuine improvement? that's Walt's call.

Falls City Beer
07-24-2008, 10:12 AM
small sample size, or genuine improvement? that's Walt's call.

Dusty getting them over their pythag?

princeton
07-24-2008, 10:19 AM
Dusty getting them over their pythag?

well, you heard him.

"if we're not playing better than our Pythag by July, then there's not a hypotenuse at MIT"

Falls City Beer
07-24-2008, 10:21 AM
well, you heard him.

"if we're not playing better than our Pythag by July, then there's not a hypotenuse at MIT"

At least Dusty knows what side his bread gets buttered.

Johnny Footstool
07-24-2008, 10:26 AM
but outscoring the opposition by a run a game, even without your Cy Young candidate, does.

small sample size, or genuine improvement? that's Walt's call.

Unfortunately, it's probably luck.

Dunn and Encarnacion are hot right now. If/when they cool off, I don't see the Reds scoring a lot of runs at all.

Falls City Beer
07-24-2008, 10:28 AM
Unfortunately, it's probably luck.

Well, if you're into that sort of thing, I hear-tell "luck" can last whole seasons.

redsmetz
07-24-2008, 10:33 AM
Well, if you're into that sort of thing, I hear-tell "luck" can last whole seasons.

I'll take lucky if there's a post-season involved!

princeton
07-24-2008, 10:43 AM
If/when they cool off, I don't see the Reds scoring a lot of runs at all.

Dusty seems to have given up on the idea of defense. scoring runs might not be a problem.

I think that WJ will try to add a RHHing OFer and a LH reliever, then work on that Dunn contract.

but Walt's opportunistic. He could do something much more interesting

VR
07-24-2008, 10:52 AM
Griffey may have come around as well. Let's not discount that.

lollipopcurve
07-24-2008, 10:53 AM
adequate fifth-starting plus luck

in the end, pitching wins

Johnny Footstool
07-24-2008, 10:59 AM
The 2006 Reds were lucky, and fooled themselves into thinking they were capable of contending in 2007.

The 2007 Mariners fell even deeper into that same trap.

princeton
07-24-2008, 11:03 AM
The 2006 Reds were lucky, and fooled themselves into thinking they were capable of contending in 2007.

what, did they miss an opportunity to deal Dunn?

maybe they just deferred it for a couple of years.

Johnny Footstool
07-24-2008, 11:48 AM
what, did they miss an opportunity to deal Dunn?

maybe they just deferred it for a couple of years.

No, they (i.e. Krivsky) decided they were only a couple of moves away from competing, when in reality they weren't a very good team and should have started an overhaul.

membengal
07-24-2008, 11:53 AM
This team is one game out if in the NL West, and unquestionably buyers. It's amazing that the Rockies at 45-58 are buyers, but, as with real estate, location, location, location.

For those of us who saw this as a .500 team, that dream is still alive.

SMcGavin
07-24-2008, 11:54 AM
No, they (i.e. Krivsky) decided they were only a couple of moves away from competing, when in reality they weren't a very good team and should have started an overhaul.

The kind of overhaul that would have gotten them in position to be a contender three or four years down the line? Wait a sec...

Johnny Footstool
07-24-2008, 12:06 PM
The kind of overhaul that would have gotten them in position to be a contender three or four years down the line? Wait a sec...

Yeah...but legit contenders, not luck-reliant statistical anomalies.

princeton
07-24-2008, 12:53 PM
should have started an overhaul.


only four main guys remain from Jan 2006-- I think that the overhaul happened but you weren't looking. the Gorilla in the Room (Jr) remains, but that guy wasn't moving.

Might have gotten something for Hatteburg and Freel, but maybe not. I'm not sweating the dealing of Germano (who could have been reclaimed on waivers later) or Zach Ward. Cody Ross should have been kept, but he wasn't dealt due to desire to win now.

other than Harang, everyone else that could have been dealt then for big return (Dunn, Arroyo, Weathers) can also be dealt now. and Harang's time will come around again.

Jr was never dealable, IMO.

SMcGavin
07-24-2008, 01:16 PM
Yeah...but legit contenders, not luck-reliant statistical anomalies.

I'm talking about 2009 and 2010, which would be three and four years removed from the 2006 season which you claim set the Reds future back by not "overhauling".

Caveat Emperor
07-24-2008, 01:50 PM
adequate fifth-starting plus luck

in the end, pitching wins

Yup.

Which is why I'm shocked that so many people are confused by the rumors about adding Huston Street.

What separates OK teams from good/great teams? The ability to shorten games on the back end of things. Games become a lot easier to win when your opponent thinks he only has 6 innings to do business.

Johnny Footstool
07-24-2008, 02:11 PM
I'm talking about 2009 and 2010, which would be three and four years removed from the 2006 season which you claim set the Reds future back by not "overhauling".

I checked my posts, but couldn't find any claims about setting the future back.


only four main guys remain from Jan 2006-- I think that the overhaul happened but you weren't looking. the Gorilla in the Room (Jr) remains, but that guy wasn't moving.



Yes, only a few players remain from 2006, but the point is, it's two years later and the current team is still relying on luck. The "overhaul" that happened while I wasn't looking was more like a paint job.

Spring~Fields
07-24-2008, 02:18 PM
At least Dusty knows what side his bread gets buttered.

Patterson, Bako, and the often injured Mercker and Hairston ? ;)

At least he has discovered another leadoff hitter, another centerfielder, and a couple catcher's that the Reds already had. :) Maybe OBP will be his savior yet! Dunn=OBP

princeton
07-24-2008, 02:27 PM
The "overhaul" that happened while I wasn't looking was more like a paint job.

you may not like the overhaul, but it occurs to me that you're lamenting one that never occurred when it did occur. You cur.

Walt's facing essentially the same situation as Wayne, except for the facts:

1. Jr's contract is finally expiring
2. Dunn's turning into a pumpkin at year's end
3. Arroyo's contract will be a bit much for next two years and seems highly tradeable right now
4. much closer guys in farm system
5. Walt surely has more cred with Cast.

Spring~Fields
07-24-2008, 02:28 PM
Unfortunately, it's probably luck.

Dunn and Encarnacion are hot right now. If/when they cool off, I don't see the Reds scoring a lot of runs at all.



E. Encarnacion .348 .500 .913 1.413
J. Valentin .500 .500 .900 1.400
Adam Dunn .364 .500 .773 1.273
K. Griffey Jr. .346 .452 .615 1.067


Last Seven
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/teams/batting?team=cin&cat=OPS&season=2008&split=61&seasonType=2&type=reg

July
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/teams/batting?team=cin&season=2008&seasonType=2&split=43&cat=OPS&order=true&type=reg

jojo
07-24-2008, 02:30 PM
This team is one game out if in the NL West, and unquestionably buyers. It's amazing that the Rockies at 45-58 are buyers, but, as with real estate, location, location, location.

For those of us who saw this as a .500 team, that dream is still alive.

The Rockies really shouldn't think of themselves as buyers though.

membengal
07-24-2008, 02:45 PM
I agree, and yet, they are acting like they are. World series run must still be fresh on their minds. If they were sporting that record in the NL Central, they would certainly not be entertaining the concept of buying.

Location.

WebScorpion
07-24-2008, 02:52 PM
Unfortunately, it's probably luck.

Dunn and Encarnacion are hot right now. If/when they cool off, I don't see the Reds scoring a lot of runs at all.

I keep seeing that everywhere...Dunn and EE are hot. I'm not denying that it's true, but rather the implication that other hitters are NOT hot. The post-All-Star break Griffey looks more like the 2007 Griffey than the old geezer who started this season. David Ross has found the middle ground between his breakout season (900+ OPS) of '06 and his breakdown (sub-700 OPS) season of '07. Jay Bruce (current 12 game hitting steak) is warming up again. IMO, there's a lot more contributing to the winning than two guys getting hot.


The "overhaul" that happened while I wasn't looking was more like a paint job.

Are you saying this is the same old Reds team? The classic pitcherless, all offense Reds of the the past decade and a half? We've lamented for years; Pitching wins championships; Why do we never have any pitching?...Well, now we've got it. No, we don't have an offensive juggernaut, but sometimes you have to give up something to get something. These guys CAN pitch! They don't always pitch well, and have yet to all pitch well at the same time, but don't believe that they can't do it. Harang, Arroyo, Volquez, Cueto, Bailey. You've seen each of these pitchers at different times make you think they could hold down the FRONT of a rotation. Now how many games can this team win if all five hit the top of their game together?




I just got a shiver. How about you?


If we can get these starters throwing BBs at the same time, take Lincoln (longest current scoreless streak in the Majors) and Majewski in their current state, get Coco back to his rested self, and ADD and arm like Huston Street?!?! The offense wont NEED an All-Star at every position. They'll just need a bunch of guys who can eke out a few runs every nine innings, and I think we have got that. Don't fool yourself, this is NOT the same old Reds.

Come on, PRINCETON said something optimistic about the Major League team for the first time in 8 years...even you should know something is different... :D

M2
07-24-2008, 05:12 PM
4. much closer guys in farm system

This one I'm not so sure about. Roenicke is probably the guy closest to really helping. After that you've got Maloney, who may not be of much help until 2010 (after wrapping up in AAA this season and transitioning in 2009).

Bailey and Thompson, IMO, are still a lot farther away than anyone wants to admit. I don't expect either one to be a major league asset until roughly 2011 (and Bailey will be long gone if that's his timetable due to his waiver situation).

Valaika maybe could be ready for the bigs by 2010 (though he doesn't strike me as an impact rookie even if that is his arrival date). Frazier might be able to get into the 2010 mix. It would be a bit of a rush, but he, more than anyone else in the system, strikes me as having a bat you can rush.

Drew Stubbs' best case scenario would be 2010. You've maybe got some sleepers in Sean Henry, Shaun Cumberland, Danny Dorn and Sam Lecure, but none of those guys profile as big help soon. Chris Dickerson might emerge as a 4th OF type too.

What I'm saying is I don't see the farm providing a lot of help through 2009. It very well might be limited to Roenicke (at least in terms of kids who can have impact). The real "prospect" gains might come from guys already in the majors, like Bruce, Cueto and Votto.

Jocketty can't just let Dunn and Jr. walk and expect the farm to cure all ills. Yet I do expect Dunn and Jr. to walk, which puts Jocketty in the same position as his predecessors. Do you gamble on an immediate turnaround, do you stockpile talent in the upper minors, or do you call out some names during the draft and pretend that constitutes a five-year plan?

Johnny Footstool
07-24-2008, 05:17 PM
The thing is, the Reds have burned me before. They've put together a month or two of torrid streaks, then gone as cold as a Siberian witch.

I get the distinct feeling that this team is doing it with smoke and mirrors, eluding fundamental flaws (namely, poor defense and a thin bullpen) for the time being only. Just like they've done before.

Maybe they can keep it up for two more months. I hope they can. But I'm not betting on it.

BCubb2003
07-24-2008, 06:00 PM
Pythagoras is dead. Just throw strikes.