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ChatterRed
07-24-2008, 04:46 PM
What if the Reds re-signed Adam Dunn for next season. How would you build the lineup?

CF Hairston
2B Keppinger
SS Phillips
LF Dunn
3B EE
RF Bruce
1B Votto
C

What if they don't re-sign Adam Dunn next season. How would the lineup look?

CF Hairston
2B Keppinger
RF Bruce
SS Phillips
3B EE
1B Votto
LF ?????
C

The lineup looks weird without Dunn in it.

Ghosts of 1990
07-24-2008, 04:57 PM
It looks weird and WEAK.

UC_Ken
07-24-2008, 05:17 PM
Why in the world would you hit Phillips above EE? They were close statistically last year, EE is significantly outproducing BP this season, and EE is significantly younger and more likely to continue his improvement.

Is your name Dusty Baker?

Seriously though the lineup stinks without Dunn. If he's gone they'd better go out and sign a .900 OPS OF.

Ahhhorsepoo
07-24-2008, 06:00 PM
If we unfortunately keep adam dunn....

I would have..

Hairston/Keppinger
B-Phill
Dunn
Bruce(he will come back around to be a .290 BA and 25 homer guy..)
EE
Votto
Keppinger/Hairston(hairston here only if he comes back to earth, if not then you bat kepp)
Catcher du jour
Pitcher

BPhill is in the 2 instead of Dunn because putting BPhill behind dunn takes away his speed on the bases..

Keppinger could bat 9th if you want 2 leadoff guys in a row if hairston and kepp can both keep up above .300..

FeartheEars
07-24-2008, 06:13 PM
Brandon Phillips is way too impatient of a hitter to bat in the 2 hole. The leadoff man won't have many pitches to try and steal and his OBP isn't that great either. Keppinger is the best option we have for the two hole right now. Once he gets back to 100% I think we will see more along the 320-330 lines for him again.

Hairston or FA/Trade
Kepp
Dunn
EE
Votto
Phillips
Bruce
Catcher

I wouldn't mind moving Bruce up or Phillips switching with EE during a BP hot streak.

The lineup has major holes in it with no Adam Dunn. A trade would have to bring an impact bat because the FA market doesn't appear to have one the Reds could land cheaper than Dunn and match production.

bgwilly31
07-24-2008, 06:15 PM
What if the Reds re-signed Adam Dunn for next season. How would you build the lineup?

CF Hairston
2B Keppinger
SS Phillips
LF Dunn
3B EE
RF Bruce
1B Votto
C

What if they don't re-sign Adam Dunn next season. How would the lineup look?

CF Hairston
2B Keppinger
RF Bruce
SS Phillips
3B EE
1B Votto
LF ?????
C

The lineup looks weird without Dunn in it.

no no no. Not weird. i think the word you looking for is horrible.

The first lineup looks fantastic to me. :cool:

CWRed
07-24-2008, 07:08 PM
If we unfortunately keep adam dunn....

I would have..

Hairston/Keppinger
B-Phill
Dunn
Bruce(he will come back around to be a .290 BA and 25 homer guy..)
EE
Votto
Keppinger/Hairston(hairston here only if he comes back to earth, if not then you bat kepp)
Catcher du jour
Pitcher

BPhill is in the 2 instead of Dunn because putting BPhill behind dunn takes away his speed on the bases..

Keppinger could bat 9th if you want 2 leadoff guys in a row if hairston and kepp can both keep up above .300..


Please stop hiding your disgust for Adam Dunn. It's embarrassing. BP in the 2-hole. Nuh-uh. Double play machine and low OBP. Flip Votto and BP and you're onto something. Dunn in the 3-hole? Yes yes yes ye!!!!

bgwilly31
07-24-2008, 07:47 PM
Why in the world would you hit Phillips above EE? They were close statistically last year, EE is significantly outproducing BP this season, and EE is significantly younger and more likely to continue his improvement.

Is your name Dusty Baker?

Seriously though the lineup stinks without Dunn. If he's gone they'd better go out and sign a .900 OPS OF.


If EE was a little more consistent i wouldnt argue too much with this.

But if we bat EE fourth this team would go on 20 game losing streaks and 20 game winning streaks. Like EE's batting avg.

Also the only thing close last year with EE and BP in stats were there batting avgs and doubles.

The rest BP handily beat EE.

Orenda
07-24-2008, 07:56 PM
I've always liked Dunn hitting 2nd. I shy away from him 3rd due to his career numbers with RISP. Although his OBP plays just about anywhere I think he's more fit to swing 2,4, or 5.

Anyhow this would be my lineup 1a. with Dunn

1.) obviously the reds are lacking here Hairston and Keppinger are options, Hairston would be perfect if he kept up this years play, however I'd be wary of him regressing back to career norms. Like many here I'd like to see the Reds go after someone via free agency or trade. A legit leadoff guy could make this a very dangerous team. What can the price be on a guy like Reggie Willits? only 65 abs all season for the halos maybe their pen could use a little bolstering.

2.) Dunn- his high OBP and slugging play for me here. With a legitimate high OBP leadoff hitter I could envision a lot of 1st and 2nd with nobody out situations.

3.) Edwin Encarnacion- I would have felt better about this last year given his current trend of pulling everything but I'd be willing to bet that he could hold his own if given enough ab's here. Hit 360/447/500 last year with RISP and 303/392/523 the year before.

4.) Phillips- for now... would prefer him 5th or 6th, what Bruce and Votto are able to do their 2nd season determines if he stays here or not. Dunn works for me here also, In that situation I would have Keppinger, Votto, or Bruce 2nd.

5.) Jay Bruce- Is this guy even 21? I'm going to need to see some ID.

6.) Jeff Keppinger- the great thing about him is he is so versatile he can hit in almost any situation, for me he is interchangable 1st, 2nd, or 5-7.

7.) Joey Votto- definitely not your typical 7 hitter, If you don't get all giddy over lefty-righty lineups then you can switch him with Kepp. I would have Bruce here till he earned a promotion in the lineup but I think Votto might be a little less dependant on protection from hitting ahead of Benito Santiago...I mean David Bako

8.) Help Wanted: requirements- Over-rated defensive minded catcher, Biliungal a plus.

9.) Harang- I wish the NL had a DH

Lineup 1b.)
1. Hairston/ Keppinger/ gift from santa

2. Joey Votto

3. Edwin Encarnacion

4. AD

5. BP

6. JB

7. JK

8. Pitcher- Larusa and Yost may be onto something but I'd let the pitcher hit here as a public shunning toward the catcher.

9. Catcher- Do they sell Dunce helmets?

OSUredsFAN
07-24-2008, 08:16 PM
As such as his D is weak, its a much more weaker lineup without him.

757690
07-24-2008, 08:31 PM
The lineup without Dunn looks weak because no one has replaced him yet.

The ??? at LF needs to be filled with a solid middle of the lineup hitter. Otherwise it is a waste of the money saved on not signing Dunn.

If Dunn is not resigned, I am positive that Jocketty will get a good replacement for him somehow. I have no idea who that is, but whoever it is, he will make the lineup look much better.

Here is just one guess, and I hope whoever the Reds get is better than this guess.

Hairston
Votto
EE
Bruce
Phillips
Casey Blake
Gonzo (remember him? He should be healthy next year)
Catcher

I really like having Kep on the bench. Makes the team much stronger if they can afford to keep him there.

Eric Davis
07-24-2008, 08:46 PM
It's funny how Jerry Hairston is hot for a couple months and now all of a sudden he's depended on as an every day centerfielder. Amazing.

757690
07-24-2008, 08:59 PM
It's funny how Jerry Hairston is hot for a couple months and now all of a sudden he's depended on as an every day centerfielder. Amazing.

I agree with your sentiment. But if Hairston can keep this up for the next two months, then I see no reason to think that he can't do it next year.

If he falters, then the Reds need to get a CF, and knowing Dusty, he will leadoff.

gedred69
07-24-2008, 09:21 PM
I think Hairston is very "Freelesqe", In that he can provide tremendous spark, but don't count on him playing everyday. He will tear himself up to make the plays, endearing him to the fans, while injuring himself or just plain wearing down. Doc Rogers said on the after game show that he was often injured/dinged, in his early career with the O's when Rogers was in the front office there. That legacy continues sadly....

Blue
07-24-2008, 09:27 PM
If we unfortunately keep adam dunn....

I would have..

Hairston/Keppinger
B-Phill
Dunn
Bruce(he will come back around to be a .290 BA and 25 homer guy..)
EE
Votto
Keppinger/Hairston(hairston here only if he comes back to earth, if not then you bat kepp)
Catcher du jour
Pitcher

BPhill is in the 2 instead of Dunn because putting BPhill behind dunn takes away his speed on the bases..

Keppinger could bat 9th if you want 2 leadoff guys in a row if hairston and kepp can both keep up above .300..

Now that is funny. You say it would be unfortunate to bring Dunn back, and yet put him third in the batting order.

TC81190
07-24-2008, 10:17 PM
CF Hairston
2B Keppinger
LF Dunn
3B Encarnacion
1B Votto
SS Phillips
RF Bruce
C Hanigan

Blue
07-24-2008, 10:23 PM
CF someone new
2B O-Dog
LF Dunn
1B EE
RF Bruce
SS Phillips
3B someone new
C someone new

improbus
07-24-2008, 10:32 PM
Whatever the Reds do, it needs to involve Dunn hitting 3rd.

Eric Davis
07-24-2008, 10:37 PM
Whatever the Reds do, it needs to involve Dunn hitting 3rd.

Maybe instead of allowing the DH in the national league they'll start allowing a designated monkey to play left field. It'd surely be better than Dunn.

improbus
07-24-2008, 10:42 PM
Maybe instead of allowing the DH in the national league they'll start allowing a designated monkey to play left field. It'd surely be better than Dunn.
Dunn is better than Pat Burrell, Carlos Lee, and Chris Duncan in LF.

Blue
07-24-2008, 10:52 PM
Dunn is better than Pat Burrell, Carlos Lee, and Chris Duncan in LF.

And a lot of other guys, if you believe Baseball Prospectus. They've had him well below average in the past, but above average this year.

Reputations are hard to lose, I guess.

Aces Wild
07-24-2008, 11:03 PM
If the Reds are serious about contending next year not only should they re-sign Adam, but they also need to obtain a legitimate CF. I am amazed that so many people are sold on Hairston after the hot streak he's been on. I am more inclined to believe that the player who has been below average his entire career is much closer to the player we will see next year if depended on to play everyday.

NeilHamburger
07-25-2008, 12:30 AM
Here is my ideal lineup next year:

Hairston SS
EE 3rd
Dunn Left
Milton Bradley Right
Jay Bruce Center
Brandon Phillips 2nd
Joey Votto 1st
Ross Catcher


Replacing griffey with Bradley is a major improvement that will cost you less. Kepp. and Alex Gonz. give you solid replacements.

EE gets on even when he is not hitting well because he can take a walk, this will only improve in the two hole. Dunn bats where he should, Bradley provides protection, Bruce has shown improvement and Phillips will hit in a spot more suitable to his approach (one where you're less concerned about OBP and more concerned with knocking in the guys on).

Plus, since Bradley is a switch hitter you go right to left from 2nd down to 8th if need be.

I like Hairston leading off, this is the spot some will disagree, but both Kepp. and Gonzo will be around incase he falters.

Blue
07-25-2008, 12:36 AM
Here is my ideal lineup next year:

Hairston SS
EE 3rd
Dunn Left
Milton Bradley Right
Jay Bruce Center
Brandon Phillips 2nd
Joey Votto 1st
Ross Catcher


Replacing griffey with Bradley is a major improvement that will cost you less. Kepp. and Alex Gonz. give you solid replacements.

I was really wanting the Reds to get Milton Bradley in the offseason. I'm not sure how good his knee is at this point, as I think he is the regular DH for his Texas team, on which he is the best hitter.

TC81190
07-25-2008, 01:21 AM
And a lot of other guys, if you believe Baseball Prospectus. They've had him well below average in the past, but above average this year.

Reputations are hard to lose, I guess.
Dunn is a great player, don't get me wrong, but any defensive metric that rates him above "really bad" is worthless. Adam doesn't have the range he used to, doesn't have much bat off the ball instinct, no arm, and absolutely cannot play a ball off the wall. He is by absolutely no means an above average OF.

OUReds
07-25-2008, 03:48 AM
Dunn is a great player, don't get me wrong, but any defensive metric that rates him above "really bad" is worthless. Adam doesn't have the range he used to, doesn't have much bat off the ball instinct, no arm, and absolutely cannot play a ball off the wall. He is by absolutely no means an above average OF.

Compared to what? If compared to all outfielders I'd agree, but to other left fielders? I don't find it all that amazing that Dunn is grading out around average this year.

I'm not a big believer in defensive metrics myself, but in fairness to Dunn, it's not just one or two systems that have him average or above average this year, it's essentially all of them.

Here (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=7829) is a link to a recent BProspectus blurb about Dunn's fielding.

Javy Pornstache
07-25-2008, 09:11 AM
Now that is funny. You say it would be unfortunate to bring Dunn back, and yet put him third in the batting order.

I also LOL'd at this.

Ahhhorsepoo
07-25-2008, 10:23 AM
I never said the guy isn't a decent player.. you all have noticed my hatred for Dunn, but still have yet to grasp why..

Dunn at 7 mil a year is PERFECT..
at 13-16 mil a year he either needs to improve the strikeouts, and being able to sac fly and just in general more control at the plate, and somewhat improve the D.. or he needs to drastically improve the D..

I don't have a problem with putting him 2nd or 3rd.. but with his total lack of speed you don't want to put him in front of a potential 30+ stolen base guy..

ChatterRed
07-25-2008, 10:30 AM
Why do Philadelphia fans love Ryan Howard and Cincy fans dislike Adam Dunn? They are the same player. Although Dunn walks twice as much as Howard does.

BLEEDS
07-25-2008, 10:40 AM
Why do Philadelphia fans love Ryan Howard and Cincy fans dislike Adam Dunn? They are the same player. Although Dunn walks twice as much as Howard does.

Because Philadelphia fans are Baseball Smart.

Unfortunately, Today's Average Red Fan is not. They used to be among the smartest - in the 70's - now they are 70 years old and have alzheimers, and are sprinkled in with 20-something fantasy stat geeks who know nothing about how the game is played in reality.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

BLEEDS
07-25-2008, 11:07 AM
My ideal lineup:

1a - Hairston/Freel/Anyone/Bueller? As long as it's not COREY PATTERSON!! I'd even put Bruce here (1b) if need be, and he'd be forced to look at more pitches and learn some patience which would hopefully translate enough to move him down in the lineup

2 - Keppinger. He has proven me wrong and looked to be able to play every day, although he's struggling against righties which I don't believe to be a trend, he is the best and ideal 2 hitter for this team. Is he the LT answer at SS, probably not, but until AGON comes back/retires or we get a better hitting SS, this is who I stick with.

3 - Dunn. Highest OBP and power guy; with #1 and #2 actually getting on base, this is where you bat Dunn. They want to pitch around him and put 2 guys on in the first inning - go ahead!! I don't bump him down against lefties.

4c - BP, against lefties only, otherwise he bats down in the lineup.
I'd put Bruce (4a) or Votto (4b) here to give Dunn some protection against RHP, because any RHP in their right-mind would rather face BP than Dunn 1,000,000 times out of 1,000,000

5 - EE. All day, every day. 155 games a year, maybe more.

6a - Votto. I'd pretty much pencil him in here - unless Bruce is batting 1st then Votto's batting 4th, and I begrudgingly bat BP here (6b)

7a - BP against righties. Even though he'd be the 8th leading OPS guy against RHP, his speed gives him the edge over the catcher.
7b - Bruce against lefties, unless he's leading off, in which case it's some slappy CF or SS who can't hit worth a lick but might be able to get on in front of the catcher

8 - Catcher. 162 games a year. I don't care if LaRussa bats his pitcher 8th, this is where the comparisons to the Cardinals ends after Jocketty and Castelllini.


Take Dunn out of this lineup, and you're looking for an .850-.900 OPS Left Fielder in Free Agency. You're not going to find it. Our offense will suck butt. I don't want to fill out a lineup card without him in there because nobody wants to see a grown man cry.
Maybe the closest thing we could hope for is a Jason Bay - because the Pirates are the only team foolish enough to give him away for what we could offer them.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

Nasty_Boy
07-25-2008, 11:13 AM
I'm all about having Dunn in the 3 hole, but I think the free swingers such as Bruce and Phillips need to hit 5-6 in the order. Although I would hit Phillips 3-4 against LHP.

Here is the biggest thing I would do in the offseason. I would tell Brandon Phillips that he is going to play SS and he is going to hit leadoff. When Phillips stays up the middle and to the right side, along with his 2 strike approach, he would be the ideal leadoff hitter. Phillips is able to take pitches and work counts, but Dusty wants him swinging away. Contact hitter Phillips is a top 20 overall player, Power hitter Phillips brings a lot less to the Reds offense.

As for Hairston... I love how he's played this season, but I'm worried that he'll regress. Between Freel, Hopper, and JHJ the Reds would have the market cornered on small scrappy righthanded hitters.

My ideal lineup
Phillips SS
Votto 1B
Dunn LF
Edwin 3B
Bruce CF
Frazier RF
Kepp 2B (play him at SS, 2b, and 3b... or until Valaika is ready)
Who Knows C
P

All of these solutions are in house and assuming that Dunn is resigned. Who knows what trades or signings are made this offseason... But I think Frazier is going to be ready sooner rather that later. And I really like Blue's idea of going after Hudson.

levydl
07-25-2008, 11:27 AM
I never said the guy isn't a decent player.. you all have noticed my hatred for Dunn, but still have yet to grasp why..

Dunn at 7 mil a year is PERFECT..
at 13-16 mil a year he either needs to improve the strikeouts, and being able to sac fly and just in general more control at the plate, and somewhat improve the D.. or he needs to drastically improve the D..

I don't have a problem with putting him 2nd or 3rd.. but with his total lack of speed you don't want to put him in front of a potential 30+ stolen base guy..

Right, you think Dunn's good, he'll just be too expensive to keep. That's what you've been saying all along.

What was that point about you helping to "get rid of the garbage?"

And he's good enough, or, excuse me, decent enough that you'd put him as our 3rd hitter, but he's only worth $7 mil. a year? What other 8 year vets who would be 3 hole hitters are only worth $7 mil. a year?

Plus, I thought he was such a bad influence on all the young players? Didn't he spearhead getting rid of Hamilton because he hustled and signed autographs?

He's tied for 18th in the majors in sac flies with 5. The leader has all of 9. But, that's right, you don't care about stats.

Ahhhorsepoo
07-25-2008, 11:42 AM
Right, you think Dunn's good, he'll just be too expensive to keep. That's what you've been saying all along.

What was that point about you helping to "get rid of the garbage?"

And he's good enough, or, excuse me, decent enough that you'd put him as our 3rd hitter, but he's only worth $7 mil. a year? What other 8 year vets who would be 3 hole hitters are only worth $7 mil. a year?

Plus, I thought he was such a bad influence on all the young players? Didn't he spearhead getting rid of Hamilton because he hustled and signed autographs?

He's tied for 18th in the majors in sac flies with 5. The leader has all of 9. But, that's right, you don't care about stats.

He is garbage that we are paying too much for..
Sorry but just because he is a 3 hitter doesn't mean i want him on my team at that price..
The difference between Dunn and most 8 year vets.. they play defense.. so they get paid better.. find a person with dunns hitting.. AND even decent glove.. they should be making about 13 mil.. dunn and carlos lee and company thought have saturated the market, and soon there will be a falling out of guys who just hit homers, with no defense..

He is still a bad influence on a team.. he just would be tolerable if he got paid for what he actually is worth to this team..

going back to the carl crawford or dunn thing.. doesnt anyone else find it funny that crawford averages about the same total bases per year as dunn? so for every homer by dunn, there is 2 doubles by crawford, or a triple and a single, or 4 singles....

His sac fly total.. its hard to say that is his norm considering he only has 21 sac flies in his CAREER... having 177 AB's with a man on third with less than 2 outs.. sorry but that number should be higher than 12% of the time..

But STILL EVEN IF THAT IS THE CASE..

I don't want him on this team because he takes up too much salary for what he does..

It's beyond reasoning with you folks, you obviously have a lovefest for Adam Dunn every weekend and see no wrong in his game(or salary).. I think he could be a valuable piece to this team, IF HE WASNT THE MOST EXPENSIVE ONE.. or if he fixed his massive holes..

Nasty_Boy
07-25-2008, 11:47 AM
He is garbage that we are paying too much for..
Sorry but just because he is a 3 hitter doesn't mean i want him on my team at that price..
The difference between Dunn and most 8 year vets.. they play defense.. so they get paid better.. find a person with dunns hitting.. AND even decent glove.. they should be making about 13 mil.. dunn and carlos lee and company thought have saturated the market, and soon there will be a falling out of guys who just hit homers, with no defense..

He is still a bad influence on a team.. he just would be tolerable if he got paid for what he actually is worth to this team..

going back to the carl crawford or dunn thing.. doesnt anyone else find it funny that crawford averages about the same total bases per year as dunn? so for every homer by dunn, there is 2 doubles by crawford, or a triple and a single, or 4 singles....

His sac fly total.. its hard to say that is his norm considering he only has 21 sac flies in his CAREER... having 177 AB's with a man on third with less than 2 outs.. sorry but that number should be higher than 12% of the time..

But STILL EVEN IF THAT IS THE CASE..

I don't want him on this team because he takes up too much salary for what he does..

It's beyond reasoning with you folks, you obviously have a lovefest for Adam Dunn every weekend and see no wrong in his game(or salary).. I think he could be a valuable piece to this team, IF HE WASNT THE MOST EXPENSIVE ONE.. or if he fixed his massive holes..

Quite possibly the worst and most uneducated post in Redszone history!

Ahhhorsepoo
07-25-2008, 11:49 AM
is there really no one else in this whole forum who realizes how bad dunn is for what we pay him?

BTW the uneducated posters who think everyone in philly loves ryan howard, obviously haven't been to a game.. EVER..

levydl
07-25-2008, 12:38 PM
is there really no one else in this whole forum who realizes how bad dunn is for what we pay him?

BTW the uneducated posters who think everyone in philly loves ryan howard, obviously haven't been to a game.. EVER..

18th in OBP in the majors
14th in slugging
10th in OPS
1st (tied) in HRs
16th (tied) in RBI
1st in HRs per AB
1st in walks

$13 mil. a year is the 41st highest salary in the majors.

I don't think Dunn is perfect. I do think he's one of the most productive players in the game. You think he's worth $7 mil., which would make him the 131st highest paid player. And you think Rocco Baldelli would be an immense upgrade.

Nasty_Boy
07-25-2008, 12:41 PM
I don't think paying market value for a run producer in his prime is a bad thing. Especially one that keeps improving on defense.

Ahhhorsepoo
07-25-2008, 12:53 PM
keeps improving.. yeah ok.. this is the first year there has been ANY improvement that ANYONE can see.. and he still has big holes in his game..

He wont sing an LTC for less than 17 mil a year.. and you think that is worth it? sorry but unless he improves on D.. 400% of what he has done this year.. AT LEAST.. I wouldnt touch that with a 100 mile pole..

Javy Pornstache
07-25-2008, 01:00 PM
Dude, you act like his defense singlehandedly costs Reds games. It doesn't. He creates way more runs with his bat than he lets up with his defense. Furthermore, his defense isn't nearly as bad as you make it out to be. There was JUST a Dewan report the other day talking about how decidedly untrue it is that Dunn is a "terrible" defender. Will he ever win a Gold Glove? No. But he's not close to being the worst LF in the game.

BLEEDS
07-25-2008, 01:05 PM
Bottom line: the Reds, or any other MLB team, don't pay LF-ers for Defense. They pay for Offense.

Your statement of "The difference between Dunn and most 8 year vets.. they play defense.. so they get paid better" is the most inane comment to come out of your post in a very long time - and that's saying something!!!

PEACE

-BLEEDS

Ahhhorsepoo
07-25-2008, 02:04 PM
while he might create more runs than he costs them...

follow mathematical logic here..
creating say.. 180 runs...
but costing say 40 runs.. which in the last 3 weeks he has given at least 10 runs up, misplayed ball in left field in chicago, cant throw a guy out from 80 feet behind shortstop as he rounds third against mets, and a few others..

means he really creates ohhh 120 runs..

BPhill creates.. 180 runs.. but actually with his defensive ability he prolly saves at least 10 or 20 runs a year..

soo including his offense and defense b-phill is far better a contributor to a teams winning..

just because he isnt the worst doesnt mean he doesnt cost runs..

CWRed
07-25-2008, 02:39 PM
while he might create more runs than he costs them...

follow mathematical logic here..
creating say.. 180 runs...
but costing say 40 runs.. which in the last 3 weeks he has given at least 10 runs up, misplayed ball in left field in chicago, cant throw a guy out from 80 feet behind shortstop as he rounds third against mets, and a few others..

means he really creates ohhh 120 runs..

BPhill creates.. 180 runs.. but actually with his defensive ability he prolly saves at least 10 or 20 runs a year..

soo including his offense and defense b-phill is far better a contributor to a teams winning..

just because he isnt the worst doesnt mean he doesnt cost runs..

Oh dear. I have so much to say but all your posts are the same. Not good.

improbus
07-25-2008, 02:44 PM
while he might create more runs than he costs them...

follow mathematical logic here..
creating say.. 180 runs...
but costing say 40 runs.. which in the last 3 weeks he has given at least 10 runs up, misplayed ball in left field in chicago, cant throw a guy out from 80 feet behind shortstop as he rounds third against mets, and a few others..

means he really creates ohhh 120 runs..

BPhill creates.. 180 runs.. but actually with his defensive ability he prolly saves at least 10 or 20 runs a year..

soo including his offense and defense b-phill is far better a contributor to a teams winning..

just because he isnt the worst doesnt mean he doesnt cost runs..

No LF'er is EVER going to cost his team 40 runs. They simply don't get that many opportunities. Where did you come up with that number? Look, he's not Torii Hunter, we get it. There is room on this team for guys like Phillips and guys like Dunn.

Fil3232
07-25-2008, 02:46 PM
while he might create more runs than he costs them...

follow mathematical logic here..
creating say.. 180 runs...
but costing say 40 runs.. which in the last 3 weeks he has given at least 10 runs up, misplayed ball in left field in chicago, cant throw a guy out from 80 feet behind shortstop as he rounds third against mets, and a few others..

means he really creates ohhh 120 runs..

BPhill creates.. 180 runs.. but actually with his defensive ability he prolly saves at least 10 or 20 runs a year..

soo including his offense and defense b-phill is far better a contributor to a teams winning..

just because he isnt the worst doesnt mean he doesnt cost runs..

Are you really arguing your case by making up numbers?

That's awesome.

kpresidente
07-25-2008, 02:57 PM
My ideal lineup:
7a - BP against righties. Even though he'd be the 8th leading OPS guy against RHP, his speed gives him the edge over the catcher.
7b - Bruce against lefties, unless he's leading off, in which case it's some slappy CF or SS who can't hit worth a lick but might be able to get on in front of the catcher

8 - Catcher. 162 games a year. I don't care if LaRussa bats his pitcher 8th, this is where the comparisons to the Cardinals ends after Jocketty and Castelllini.


Take Dunn out of this lineup, and you're looking for an .850-.900 OPS Left Fielder in Free Agency. You're not going to find it. Our offense will suck butt. I don't want to fill out a lineup card without him in there because nobody wants to see a grown man cry.
Maybe the closest thing we could hope for is a Jason Bay - because the Pirates are the only team foolish enough to give him away for what we could offer them.


I like that line-up. My only thing is I'd go ahead and bat Phillips 8th instead of 7th against righties. His splits warrant that low of a spot, but his speed would be useful batting in front of the pitcher.

improbus
07-25-2008, 03:15 PM
BLEEDS, I like your ideas on the lineup, but here would be my worry. All indications are that Phillips is a high maintenance guy. Moving him from 4th to 7th might cause some sort of explosion. While I don't think that you should succumb to players, Phillips has already complained his way out of one situation, who is to say that he won't do it again. I really don't think the Reds have a true 4th hitter. Votto, EE, and Phillips are almost interchangeable, which means that they are not good enough to be elite run-producers, but they are not so bad that they need to hit 8th. I think all of the decisions the Reds make on the lineup next year will be based on how Bruce progresses in the off-season.

ChatterRed
07-25-2008, 03:21 PM
Are you really arguing your case by making up numbers?

That's awesome.

Funny.

BLEEDS
07-25-2008, 04:14 PM
I like that line-up. My only thing is I'd go ahead and bat Phillips 8th instead of 7th against righties. His splits warrant that low of a spot, but his speed would be useful batting in front of the pitcher.


BLEEDS, I like your ideas on the lineup, but here would be my worry. All indications are that Phillips is a high maintenance guy. Moving him from 4th to 7th might cause some sort of explosion. While I don't think that you should succumb to players, Phillips has already complained his way out of one situation, who is to say that he won't do it again. I really don't think the Reds have a true 4th hitter. Votto, EE, and Phillips are almost interchangeable, which means that they are not good enough to be elite run-producers, but they are not so bad that they need to hit 8th. I think all of the decisions the Reds make on the lineup next year will be based on how Bruce progresses in the off-season.

Yes, we already know that DUHsty has already said of BP that "ideally he would bat third", which I am sure he will be - stats and logic be damned!!

I agree that Votto, EE and Phillips are interchangeable - however Votto has shown that he can hit lefties, hence both sides of the plate, whereas these other guys haven't (they both struggle against RHP's, and super-especially those that know how to slow sliders low and away, off the plate).

My ideal lineup would have SOMEONE, ANYONE batting lead-off, worth more than a bag of used jockstraps - maybe Jerry Hairston Junior just likes to hit in Cincinnati, and is now a .300BA/.350OBP guy, who knows, we can dream can't we?!?! - and JAY F. BRUCE is our #4 hitter against RHP, BP can rake in against Lefties.

Again, IDEAL, not LIKELY however.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

BLEEDS
07-25-2008, 04:15 PM
Are you really arguing your case by making up numbers?

That's awesome.

Yeah, he does it ALL THE TIME. Pay closer attention and it's hard to um, pay attention to it.

The guy HATES stats - except the ones he makes up! :D:D:D

PEACE

-BLEEDS

757690
07-25-2008, 04:27 PM
Why do Philadelphia fans love Ryan Howard and Cincy fans dislike Adam Dunn? They are the same player. Although Dunn walks twice as much as Howard does.

Talk to Phillies Fans. They have the exact same discussion about Howard as the Reds fan have about Dunn. I think Dunn is about as popular with Reds fans as Howard is with Phillies fans. The few Dunn bashers on this board make it see like is disliked more than he is.

Also, Reds fans loved Dunn when he was at the same stage of his career as Howard is now. It was the eight years of the same thing that has driven some Reds fans nuts.

757690
07-25-2008, 04:30 PM
Because Philadelphia fans are Baseball Smart.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

Remember these are the fans that booed Mick Schmidt....and Santa Clause.

Ahhhorsepoo
07-25-2008, 04:32 PM
Are you really arguing your case by making up numbers?

That's awesome.

We'll do an experiment then.. how about that.. over the next 3 weeks.. we will see how many times there were plays that a quicker left fielder would have cut it off and things like that.. i wont be the ultimate judge.. but i will be watching, and if it is close enough for a better than average fielder to get to... we will count the number of bases he gives up.. and you will quickly see they add up fast..

numbers dont lie.. but unfortunately there is no error for all the bad lines he takes.. he has at least 15 more errors a year if he takes better lines..

sorry but bad fielding makes the pitcher question his team, making it even harder to pitch here..

Ahhhorsepoo
07-25-2008, 04:36 PM
Talk to Phillies Fans. They have the exact same discussion about Howard as the Reds fan have about Dunn. I think Dunn is about as popular with Reds fans as Howard is with Phillies fans. The few Dunn bashers on this board make it see like is disliked more than he is.

Also, Reds fans loved Dunn when he was at the same stage of his career as Howard is now. It was the eight years of the same thing that has driven some Reds fans nuts.

757 dont try to explain that he has stayed the same and just gotten paid more and more and more.. they don't understand that..

The other thing is... except the strikeout to walk ratio you'd be hard pressed to come up with logic that howard isn't better in nearly every catagory...

Nasty_Boy
07-25-2008, 05:29 PM
We'll do an experiment then.. how about that.. over the next 3 weeks.. we will see how many times there were plays that a quicker left fielder would have cut it off and things like that.. i wont be the ultimate judge.. but i will be watching, and if it is close enough for a better than average fielder to get to... we will count the number of bases he gives up.. and you will quickly see they add up fast..

numbers dont lie.. but unfortunately there is no error for all the bad lines he takes.. he has at least 15 more errors a year if he takes better lines..

sorry but bad fielding makes the pitcher question his team, making it even harder to pitch here..

How are you going to judge what balls quicker players will get to?

Are you going to play tape of other leftfielders on similar hit balls and time whether they get to ball quicker than Dunn?:D

levydl
07-25-2008, 05:38 PM
We'll do an experiment then.. how about that.. over the next 3 weeks.. we will see how many times there were plays that a quicker left fielder would have cut it off and things like that.. i wont be the ultimate judge.. but i will be watching, and if it is close enough for a better than average fielder to get to... we will count the number of bases he gives up.. and you will quickly see they add up fast..

numbers dont lie.. but unfortunately there is no error for all the bad lines he takes.. he has at least 15 more errors a year if he takes better lines..

sorry but bad fielding makes the pitcher question his team, making it even harder to pitch here..

I'm sure you'll be a fair judge in this little game of yours. No bias there at all. But that's fine. You start a thread, beginning tonight, and post all those plays in LF that a better than average LF would make (who is this hypothetical better than average LF, by the way?) that Dunn doesn't. We'll see how many runs he gives up on D, in your totally impartial judgment.

levydl
07-25-2008, 05:58 PM
757 dont try to explain that he has stayed the same and just gotten paid more and more and more.. they don't understand that..

The other thing is... except the strikeout to walk ratio you'd be hard pressed to come up with logic that howard isn't better in nearly every catagory...

Are you really complaining that Dunn went 40/100/100/100 when he was getting paid $450,000, and all he's done is continue to do the same, yet he's now getting paid $13,000,000? His average salary from '02-'08 is just over $5 mil. a year!

See, as it happens, a player's salary is depressed in his early years due to his rookie contract and arbitration. Then it gets to be commensurate with one's ability, which has then been proven for, oh, say, 8 straight seasons. That's how it works - we got a steal for the first 4-5 years, then his cost inched closer to his true value, and now he might be able to test the market to figure out what someone will pay for his talents.

Seriously, get a clue.

Fil3232
07-25-2008, 06:14 PM
We'll do an experiment then.. how about that.. over the next 3 weeks.. we will see how many times there were plays that a quicker left fielder would have cut it off and things like that.. i wont be the ultimate judge.. but i will be watching, and if it is close enough for a better than average fielder to get to... we will count the number of bases he gives up.. and you will quickly see they add up fast..

numbers dont lie.. but unfortunately there is no error for all the bad lines he takes.. he has at least 15 more errors a year if he takes better lines..

sorry but bad fielding makes the pitcher question his team, making it even harder to pitch here..


Sounds VERY scientific. I'll be holding my breath to hear the results...

ChatterRed
07-25-2008, 08:12 PM
Another thing. Typically, an individual player's numbers improve with an improved lineup around him. Dunn has been batting in a lineup with Griffey in it and very little else in the past. If we had a more potent lineup, and players batting in the right lineup position, things might be different and more productive.

Orenda
07-25-2008, 09:17 PM
Ryan Howard and Adam Dunn are not the same player. Howard is the better player by far, if you look at their overall numbers you could gauge that they have the same skill set. And then I guess you would argue that Ryan Howard's RBI onslaught is a product of a much more productive lineup, but if you look at his ability to hit with RISP you would see that he is the more talented player. In run producing situations his numbers go way up: 317/431/602, 282/456/653, and 256/423/ 518 over the last 3 seasons. Adam Dunn is 247/383/568, 241/403/411, and 221/394/529.

Ahhhorsepoo
07-25-2008, 10:02 PM
There will be no experiment..

Too many people will make excuses..

After just the first 7 innings today though...

Top of the first, Most Left Fielders would have made that play where the ball hit 8 feet from him. that would have saved 2 runs and 5 total bases...
And that play in the top of the 7th, he can't catch that ball 6 feet up the wall? WOW.. JUST WOW.. thats 7 total bases..

soo -2 runs through 7 innings..

Phillips on the other hand.. a guy with SPEED on our team..
made a great defnsive play in the 3rd inning to keep a guy from going first to third , while the runner didnt score, by saving that will save you runs all around...
and on offesne, HIS SPEED on the basepath made holliday make a tough throw.. while i would argue he should have been out.. forcing that throw allows you to score..

MARK BERRY IS A TERRIBLE 3B coach btw.. I have never seen a coach waive soo many people around that either are out at home, or should be with a major league throw..

Watching WIlly Tavares tonight as well.. His speed on the paths has allowed him and baker in one instance to advance and get in scoring position.. his two steals in one inning put him on 3rd with 1 out.. a situation that you SHOULD score in..

This game by the rockies, not their season.. but this game is a perfect example that some homerun power is needed, but you MUST also play small ball and defense..
Besides I am sure if I point out any more negatives in Adam Dunns game I will get banned, and over the next 3 weeks thats a given..

Blue
07-25-2008, 10:47 PM
I just knew we could count on you to be objective.

OUReds
07-26-2008, 12:18 AM
There will be no experiment..

Too many people will make excuses..

After just the first 7 innings today though...

Top of the first, Most Left Fielders would have made that play where the ball hit 8 feet from him. that would have saved 2 runs and 5 total bases...
And that play in the top of the 7th, he can't catch that ball 6 feet up the wall? WOW.. JUST WOW.. thats 7 total bases..

Your bias against Dunn taints everything you see. That ball was absolutely smoked.

I doubt any left fielder gets to it, let alone "most"

Javy Pornstache
07-26-2008, 01:02 AM
lol @ "most left fielders would have made that play" - yeah, with a jet propulsion pack on their back, they would. Did you see how hard that ball was stung?

Ahhhorsepoo
07-26-2008, 11:06 AM
lol @ "most left fielders would have made that play" - yeah, with a jet propulsion pack on their back, they would. Did you see how hard that ball was stung?

well if you watch it he was about 8 feet away from it, and was turning around with a half effort by putting his glove out.. the part you couldnt see, he took at least half a second to decide where the ball was hit, I like the not arguing the hit in the 7th that should have also been caught tho.. even if the one in the first for you dunn homers was "hard" to get to.. no argument on that one.. soo for you it is at 2 extra bases.. for me.. 7..

levydl
07-26-2008, 01:12 PM
Hahaha. I knew it immediately when I saw those plays that you were going to say that any above average LF (who is that again? You haven't even said who an above average LF is. Hint: an above average LF doesn't look very good - notice Matt Holliday last night) would get those. Willie Mays wouldn't have made those plays. At least you're consistent.

By the way, if Javy Pornstache couldn't see where he took half a second to decide where the ball was hit, how did you?

Ahhhorsepoo
07-26-2008, 06:17 PM
Hahaha. I knew it immediately when I saw those plays that you were going to say that any above average LF (who is that again? You haven't even said who an above average LF is. Hint: an above average LF doesn't look very good - notice Matt Holliday last night) would get those. Willie Mays wouldn't have made those plays. At least you're consistent.

By the way, if Javy Pornstache couldn't see where he took half a second to decide where the ball was hit, how did you?

Matt Holliday did make a play on dunns fly ball that was a play dunn would have NEVER made..
I know its impossible to prove one player would make a play over another.. but i can also promise you something else.. has there ever, and i mean.. EVER been a play dunn made that was something most LF'ers wouldnt get.. I can make an answer for you.. NO!

I have been to HUNDREDS of reds games, and unless he has a read on a ball like he NEVER has.. he waited at least a half second before he moved..

Ahhhorsepoo
07-26-2008, 06:20 PM
I am promising you.. if we get a real left fielder, this team will immediately start to win, and you will notice a change in pitching and fielding immediately.. cuts down on even 5 bases a week.. saves approximately (5 x 4 weeks x 6 months= 100 bases, or (100/4 bases in baseball=25 runs..)

BLEEDS
07-26-2008, 09:30 PM
I am promising you.. if we get a real left fielder, this team will immediately start to win, and you will notice a change in pitching and fielding immediately.. cuts down on even 5 bases a week.. saves approximately (5 x 4 weeks x 6 months= 100 bases, or (100/4 bases in baseball=25 runs..)

I hope you mean "pretend", because only in your world of non-reality can you replace a .900 OPS with a guy who defends better in LF, runs the bases better, posts a .320 OBP/.700 OPS, and hits sac flies, to replace 40/100/100/100 - and think that they will WIN, and not only that but influence pitching and fielding of the entire team.

WOW.
JUST.
WOW.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

OUReds
07-27-2008, 01:25 AM
I know its impossible to prove one player would make a play over another.. but i can also promise you something else.. has there ever, and i mean.. EVER been a play dunn made that was something most LF'ers wouldnt get.. I can make an answer for you.. NO!

Had you bothered to read my link earlier in the post, you would see that Dewan's RZR credits Dunn with 25 plays made outside the typical LF zone this year. By definition, a play made outside the LF zone is one that most LFers would not make.

Of course since this disagrees with what your fair and impartial eyes tell you, I realize it must not be true.

Ahhhorsepoo
07-27-2008, 11:14 PM
it isn't true.. you cant look at that athlete and tell me he puts himself in positions most cant make.. sorry but if you honestly believe that..

CincyRed44
07-28-2008, 03:41 AM
NM

CincyRed44
07-28-2008, 03:58 AM
IF DUNN is Back

VS RIGHTY

CF Hairston
SS Keppinger
1B Votto
LF Dunn
2B Phillips
RF Bruce
3B Encarnacion
C Teagarden via Trade w/Rangers

VS LEFTY

CF Hairston
SS Keppinger
2B Phillips
LF Dunn
3B Encarnacion
1B Votto
RF Bruce
C Teagarden

IF DUNN is Gone

VS RIGHTY

CF Hairston
LF Keppinger
1B Votto
2B Phillips
RF Bruce
3B Encarnacion
C Teagarden
SS Gonzalez
P

VS LEFTY

CF Hairston
LF Keppinger
2B Phillips
1B Votto
3B Encarnacion
RF Bruce
C Teagarden
SS Gonzalez
P