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View Full Version : What will it take to sign Dunn?



jojo
07-25-2008, 03:31 PM
This is related to the other Dunn poll but meant to look at the issue from Dunn's point of view.

Same poll options but now the vote is for the least amount in years and dollars that you think Dunn would accept.

flyer85
07-25-2008, 03:36 PM
I would like to say 3 yr $45M ...

corkedbat
07-25-2008, 03:39 PM
18M...20M...22M = $60M (plus a club option with a buyout for a 4th year $25M)

Wouldn't payit and don't think he'll get it, but I think that's close to what they will ask

Prolly endup more like: 14M...16M...18M = $48M + $20M Option

Degenerate39
07-25-2008, 03:39 PM
I would like to say 3 yr $45M ...

That's what I was thinking and it wouldn't be that bad of a deal.

flyer85
07-25-2008, 03:40 PM
That's what I was thinking and it wouldn't be that bad of a deal.afterall, he isn't Arod ... how much money does one person need?

RedsManRick
07-25-2008, 03:41 PM
I said 6/90. I think people vastly underestimate how much money is really out there -- and how few players there are to spend it on. He's going to get $15M per minimum and that only happens if the years are long. For every year you subtract, he'll get another $1M-$1.5M per.

flyer85
07-25-2008, 03:42 PM
I said 6/90. I think people vastly underestimate how much money is really out there -- and how few players there are to spend it on. I would agree. From a Dunn perspective if he went for a 3 year deal he would be set to cash in again because he would still only be 31 ... younger than when Houston threw all the money at Carlos Lee.

corkedbat
07-25-2008, 03:45 PM
Anything over 4 years (option included) is way too risky with Dunn - I'd pass

nate
07-25-2008, 03:46 PM
3/60. My homer heart wants to tell me he loves the Reds and would do 3/45. My brain says he's ready for a change of scenery.

jojo
07-25-2008, 03:47 PM
I don't think he'd do a three year deal for anything less than $60M.


afterall, he isn't Arod ... how much money does one person need?

Maybe his heart is burdened by the suffering of the people who live in Appalachia and he wants to start a foundation? :cool:

gonelong
07-25-2008, 03:54 PM
afterall, he isn't Arod ... how much money does one person need?

Depends on what your goals are. If he wants to own an NFL team or a MLB team, then he is far short at this time and would need to maximize every opportunity to get there.

... or maybe he has a goal to donate $75M in his old age ...

I sort of know a guy (2nd hand) that works about 2 months a year in construction and then fishes and hunts the rest of the year. He lives in an old trailer and doesn't own a vehical. He eats what he bags and grows a pretty extensive garder. He'd likely as the same question to you, how much money do you need?

GL

RedsMan3203
07-25-2008, 03:55 PM
Anything over 4 years (option included) is way too risky with Dunn - I'd pass

Hmmmm... How can you call it risky? Bob C and company wants to win and after all Dunn is the middle of it...

The guy plays day in and day out.... Hurt, not hurt.... Always battered, but neven broken...


Adam Troy Dunn is not a risk to this team.... Bailey and Bruce are BIGGER risks then Dunn.

Plays in 134 games a year, that also includes his rookie season where he played in only 66 games... Take that out... Jumps up to 144 games... We all know his stats...

Call me what you will... But Adam Dunn is a bigger peice to the puzzle then most know about.... If Adam leaves, then any chances of winning anything goes with him....

It will be the curse of the big bad donkey.......

LawFive
07-25-2008, 03:56 PM
He's already at $13MM this year, assuming a 15% raise each year, I'm guessing his request starts around 4/75.

red-in-la
07-25-2008, 04:15 PM
I actually think it will take the Reds MORE to sign Dunn then if he went FA just because of what you see on other threads on this board. There are a fair chuck of Reds fans that think Dunn is worth a great deal. I don't agree and don't get it, but there is that element.

I am glad that it appears that the element that counts, the Reds FO, thinks Dunn is way over-hyped......as I do.

So, I wish the title of this poll (good idea to do the poll) was either, what will Dunn get as a FA or what would it cost the Reds to sign Dunn. I think there are two different answers.

One reason I do not want the Reds to sign Dunn now is that I think he and his agent are going to aget a HUGE surprize at how little the rest of the league values him. That said, I COULD see somebody like the White Sox (just an example) way overpaying him to be a DH.

Ltlabner
07-25-2008, 04:34 PM
I think we need a few more Dunn threads. We're running low.

gonelong
07-25-2008, 04:48 PM
I think we need a few more Dunn threads. We're running low.

I kind of wonder what Redszone will be like if Dunn is no longer here.

I suspect he'd still be in a fair number of threads.

GL

BRM
07-25-2008, 04:49 PM
I kind of wonder what Redszone will be like if Dunn is no longer here.


The same. I'm confident a new lightning rod would step forward fairly quickly.

Raisor
07-25-2008, 04:50 PM
The same. I'm confident a new lightning rod would step forward fairly quickly.



*cough* JayBruce *cough*

BRM
07-25-2008, 04:53 PM
*cough* JayBruce *cough*

It's only a matter of time for him. He'll step forward whether Dunn stays or goes.

*BaseClogger*
07-25-2008, 04:55 PM
I like all the choices jojo, but I wish you would have made the poll public.

As for my choice, I said 5/$60M because I don't think he is as highly valued by MLB front offices as we like to think...

gonelong
07-25-2008, 04:56 PM
The same. I'm confident a new lightning rod would step forward fairly quickly.

To be sure ... as long as we have lightening strikes, we will have lightening rods. By far, Dunn is the tallest lightening rod around and is perched on the highest point in the area.

Dunn is an outlier, and as such he creates the most discussion. You don't get nearly as much debate about those guys that fall closer to the norm.

I suspect the collective will go back to the basic targets when Dunn is no longer around, the Manager, the GM, the next highest priced guy that isn't producing in the fashion you'd like.

GL

Boss-Hog
07-25-2008, 04:56 PM
I like all the choices jojo, but I wish you would have made the poll public.

As for my choice, I said 5/$60M because I don't think he is as highly valued by MLB front offices as we like to think...
I agree with that, but I'm thinking around the lines of 5 years/$65-70 million.

Nugget
07-25-2008, 04:57 PM
I have faith in Dunn - security plus a home team discount.

membengal
07-25-2008, 05:00 PM
I think he's got a shot at 5 years and and ninety mill on the open market. A big finish, which is underway, will make that reachable. Full disclosure, in the other thread I am hoping the Reds could get him for 4 and 60.

Bit of disconnect there, admittedly. It's why I think he is gone unless he leaves a chunk of money on the table to stay.

*BaseClogger*
07-25-2008, 05:30 PM
I agree with that, but I'm thinking around the lines of 5 years/$65-70 million.

Yeah, me too but that wasn't a choice... :)

KronoRed
07-25-2008, 05:33 PM
*cough* JayBruce *cough*

He's not hitting .400 anymore or winning games every day, trade the bum.

red-in-la
07-25-2008, 06:03 PM
I'm just afraid we will use up all of the available sarcasm on just Adam Dunn. ;)

Highlifeman21
07-25-2008, 06:54 PM
it'll take just shy of 100 Million

as for the years, probably 6?

Spring~Fields
07-25-2008, 08:02 PM
Fun with numbers and speculations

Dunn previous contract, source: media
Previous season
2005
4,600,000
February 2006 Dunn signed for
First year $7.5
+2,900,000 +63%
Second year $10.5 million
+3 million 40% increase
Third year $13 million
+2.5 million 23.81 % increase
13,000,000 - 4,600,000 + 8,400,000 183.1% increase
8,400,000/3 2,800,000 increase per year av’g

Speculation #1 based upon certain percentages from above
Four years 80 million dollars with a no trade clause
First year they will ask for $16 million
Second year they will ask for 18.5 million
Third year they will ask for 21.5 million
Fourth year option they will ask for 24 million
Buyout option $5 million
80 million/ 4 yr 20 million per yr av’g

Speculation #2 based upon the 2,800,000 per year av’g increase above
No trade clause
Year 1 15,800,000
Year 2 18,600,000
Year 3 21,400,000
Year 4 24,200,000
4 years 80 million

Speculation #3
Four years 85 million dollars with a no trade clause
First year they will ask for $17.5 million
Second year they will ask for $19.75 million
Third year they will ask for $22.75
Fourth year option they will ask for $25 million
Buyout option $5 million
85 million / 4 21.25 per year av’g


I thought that I had read that Griffey is to get 16 million in 2009, or a 4 million dollar buyout, his numbers might be a reference point, if Dunn’s surpass Griffey’s, and they do, and of course other player comparables from major league baseball for his agent to derive dollar amounts.

Speculation #4 based upon player union estimated percentage increases in player salaries for 2008
Minimum would be .
12% per season increase or
1,560,000 first year - $14,560,000
1,747,200 second year - $16,307,200
1,956,864 third year - $18,264,064
2,191,688 fourth year - $22,647,440
$71,778,704

I think that this lower amount will be below other player comparables, so I don’t believe that he will be signed for this lower amount. $17,944,676 per yr av’g though is close on some accounts at $18,000,000 per year

If the teams payroll was to be 85 million in 2009 $16 million would have Dunn making almost 18.9% - 19% of the payroll 85 million - 16 million = 69 million to divide among 24 roster members or 2.875 million av’g
Of course we know that Harang, Arroyo, Cordero, Griffey, Gonzalez, Freel are contracted to receive more than 2.875 million on 2009. Consider then, that is fans beware, that leaves lower amounts and often creates a situation where the Reds have to contract with below league average players, that fans often call fodder or filler, vs higher quality players to fill out the roster.

Just playing with numbers now.
If Griffey and Dunn were brought back in 2009 at 16 million each, 32 million would be 35 % + of a 90 million dollar budget. 90-32=58million / 23 remaining roster spots or 2.52 million per

Unless Cordero’s contract is indicative of some serious financial changes with the Reds, meaning they have much larger amounts of money in the present than we have witnessed in the past, Mr. Bob Castellini has talked himself into a corner between the fans and winning and his fellow investors and partners. Thus someone will not be coming back to the Reds because of cost and expenses.



Numbers that preceded 2006 signing
G R H HR RBI BB OBP SLG OPS
2004 Cin 161 105 151 46 102 108 .388 .569 .957
2005 Cin 160 107 134 40 101 114 .387 .540 .927

Numbers that followed the 2006 signing
2006 Cin 160 99 131 40 92 112 .365 .490 .855
2007 Cin 152 101 138 40 106 101 .386 .554 .940

jojo
07-25-2008, 08:08 PM
Jr's departure is a forgone conclusion (at least it should be).

Spring~Fields
07-25-2008, 08:30 PM
I don’t like my numbers, I mean that I am not comfortable with the speculation because it is so easy to be dead wrong. Though I should be in range with the 71 million to 85 million, so should everyone else, 14 million is playing kind of lose with the numbers.

I agree on the Griffey comment. Something almost has to give. Griffey leaving, other’s leaving or the owners significantly increasing the payroll. I am not spewing a fans frustrated sour grapes here, I just don’t see how, without something having to give.

I just can’t see them leaving conservatism and raising the payroll by a huge amount, I don’t think their current revenues will allow it. Though it is all speculation.

The major part that I am really concerned with is the percentage of payroll that any of the large contracts consume, because it leaves smaller amounts to be spent on the other players to fill the roster, which often means that they have to have players that are not good supporting cast. We have been experiencing the results of that for some time now as fans.

Plus I am torn, or in conflict with myself, I don’t want to be right that the Reds can’t afford good players throughout. I am a fan, so I have a mutual interest as each fan on this board, that the team be good and enjoyable.

I/ we have to seriously hope that they do a great job with the works, owner/investors, the general manager, and the player resources, with the funds that will be available to them.

AmarilloRed
07-25-2008, 10:57 PM
5 years , 90 million is the payout he will seek. He may not get it in FA however, and we might be able to get him for the 4 years, 60 million I suggested earlier.

Nugget
07-25-2008, 11:20 PM
Jr's departure is a forgone conclusion (at least it should be).

Very much so here on REDSZONE.

It would be great if we got a headline like this when Dunn signs with the REDS.
http://reds.enquirer.com/2000/02/12/red_griffey_contract.html

Just for clarification - Junior's headline contract for next year is $16.5 million as well as the deferred money beginning to earn interest. However, the actual outlay is closer to $9.3 million as part of next year's salary is deferred too.

Spring~Fields
07-25-2008, 11:35 PM
Very much so here on REDSZONE.

It would be great if we got a headline like this when Dunn signs with the REDS.
http://reds.enquirer.com/2000/02/12/red_griffey_contract.html

Just for clarification - Junior's headline contract for next year is $16.5 million as well as the deferred money beginning to earn interest. However, the actual outlay is closer to $9.3 million as part of next year's salary is deferred too.

Deferred amounts set aside for contingent liabilities are expensed to the year that they are incurred, so whatever the amount is, it goes against that years budget.

Nugget
07-25-2008, 11:38 PM
Deferred amounts set aside for contingent liabilities are expensed to the year that they are incurred, so whatever the amount is, it goes against that years budget.

Sure for accrual accounting purposes that's right but if you're looking at real cash out the door and what is being prospectively saved then its not like owners are going to say woohoo I now have an extra $16.5 million its really only an extra $9 million. The additional $7.5 million that would have accrued for the year was only an accrual and not an actual cash expense.

Spring~Fields
07-25-2008, 11:58 PM
Sure for accrual accounting purposes that's right but if you're looking at real cash out the door and what is being prospectively saved then its not like owners are going to say woohoo I now have an extra $16.5 million its really only an extra $9 million. The additional $7.5 million that would have accrued for the year was only an accrual and not an actual cash expense.


Then where did the monies come from to fund the account for the deferred money or the contingent liability ?
Each year that they contracted with Griffey they would have had to set aside that amount of deferred monies in some type of growth account, which would have effected cash

Debit Payroll expense Griffey $ X amount
Credit Cash payroll Griffey $ X amount

Debit contingent liability escrow acct $ X.xx amt
Credit Cash $X.xxx

How do you get that that would not have effected their available cash?

Donít they have a buyout option next year of 4 million ? If the contract year would have been 16.5 as you say then that would free up for them 12.5 million correct if they opted for the buyout?

Nugget
07-26-2008, 12:12 AM
Then where did the monies come from to fund the account for the deferred money or the contingent liability ?
Each year that they contracted with Griffey they would have had to set aside that amount of deferred monies in some type of growth account, which would have effected cash

Debit Payroll expense Griffey $ X amount
Credit Cash payroll Griffey $ X amount

Debit contingent liability escrow acct $ X.xx amt
Credit Cash $X.xxx

How do you get that that would not have effected their available cash?

Donít they have a buyout option next year of 4 million ? If the contract year would have been 16.5 as you say then that would free up for them 12.5 million correct if they opted for the buyout?

Yes they would have to set aside the money for Junior but its a bit like an annuity. For arguments sake lets say that Junior's salary next year is $8 million with $8.5 million deferred. Lets also assume that the REDS set aside each year the amount of money required to pay the deferred payment for that year's salary on the basis that that years salary is paid over time (rather than what actually happens which is that they probably took out an annuity in year one which will make the deferred payments over time). So in order to pay out $8.5 million dollars over 30 years they would need to set aside $X. X is dependent on the interest rate which $X can be invested at and how much is paid in respect of the $8.5 million in each of the 30 years. Whatever X is it is less than $8.5 million and based on the REDS releases at the time of the contract is about $1.3 million (probably because they took out an annuity at the start of the contract).

Spring~Fields
07-26-2008, 12:24 AM
Yes they would have to set aside the money for Junior but its a bit like an annuity. For arguments sake lets say that Junior's salary next year is $8 million with $8.5 million deferred. Lets also assume that the REDS set aside each year the amount of money required to pay the deferred payment for that year's salary on the basis that that years salary is paid over time (rather than what actually happens which is that they probably took out an annuity in year one which will make the deferred payments over time). So in order to pay out $8.5 million dollars over 30 years they would need to set aside $X. X is dependent on the interest rate which $X can be invested at and how much is paid in respect of the $8.5 million in each of the 30 years. Whatever X is it is less than $8.5 million and based on the REDS releases at the time of the contract is about $1.3 million (probably because they took out an annuity at the start of the contract).

I wish we knew exactly what they did, I mean how they invested that money, it would be interesting to see how much growth it had, and how much they actually had to pay out vs the actual face value of the contract.

It was this comment by you that had me confused, as I was not sure where you were coming from with it. I think now you were trying to tell them, that the owners did not have X dollars free or liquid for discretionary use just because the amounts were deferred, which I would agree with.


its not like owners are going to say woohoo I now have an extra $16.5 million

corkedbat
07-26-2008, 10:47 AM
Hmmmm... How can you call it risky? Bob C and company wants to win and after all Dunn is the middle of it...

The guy plays day in and day out.... Hurt, not hurt.... Always battered, but neven broken...


Adam Troy Dunn is not a risk to this team.... Bailey and Bruce are BIGGER risks then Dunn.

Plays in 134 games a year, that also includes his rookie season where he played in only 66 games... Take that out... Jumps up to 144 games... We all know his stats...

Call me what you will... But Adam Dunn is a bigger peice to the puzzle then most know about.... If Adam leaves, then any chances of winning anything goes with him....

It will be the curse of the big bad donkey.......

Any 5th or 6th year for AD is most likely gonna cost $20M(+). No way do I wanna see them guarantee that. I'd only do a 4th year as an option with a buyout.