View Full Version : Analysis: Trade Arroyo?

07-27-2008, 09:31 AM
The article (below) is by Erardi. Daugherty also advocates the same (for whatever that is worth).

Also... just read this on ESPN Insider

Though the Colorado Rockies are 12 games under .500, they remain in the race for the National League West title and could become buyers at the deadline if they continue to win, reports the Denver Post.

Bronson Arroyo (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?statsId=6498), who recently expressed his desire to stay in Cincinnati, may not get his wish, as the Colorado Rockies (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/clubhouse?team=col) are interested in acquiring the right-handed starter.

Arroyo's back-loaded contract which guarantees him $23 million over the next two seasons will not be an obstacle in negotiations since the Reds are not against picking up some of that money if the teams can agree on the players involved, the Rocky Mountain News report.



A by-the-numbers look at the Reds

To: Reds General Manager Walt Jocketty

Dear Walt,

Yes, us again. (We couldn't resist.) We hear there's a trade deadline coming up Thursday. We know you don't need our help, but that hasn't stopped us before, so here we go.

We understand there isn't a ton of interest in Adam Dunn, so maybe you'll wind up keeping him. But we're not here to talk about Dunn.
We're here to talk about Bronson Arroyo, because we know there's interest in him.

We've got nothing against trading Arroyo, provided you've got somebody to replace him relatively soon. The statistical services say he'll give you more the rest of this year and next year and maybe even the year after that (which is the last year of his contract) than the guys you've already got who might replace him (Darryl Thompson and Matt Maloney), so we'd be a little careful on that score. But we'd also understand it you trade him, especially for a go get 'em center fielder who can lead off, or a catcher.
As you already know, the New York Yankees have a left fielder who can play center and lead off. Brett Gardner has excellent speed and good on-base skills (.388 OBP in the minors), although no power (.385 slugging percentage). He'd give your manager what he wants, but man oh man, don't be wrong about him. And don't get scared off by his defense. It's rated sketchy, but it is off such limited data we don't even think it's reliable.

If you could get a couple of live arms from down low in the Yankees chain - we hear they've got 'em - it might be a good trade.
The better choice might be the Texas Rangers, who have three catchers to consider: Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Taylor Teagarden and Gerald Laird. (Max Ramirez is even better, but it would take another Josh Hamilton to pry him loose.)

Also, if the Cubs have so much as a hiccup in their rotation, they might part with outfielder Felix Pie, he of the considerable upside; it's a short trip from desperate to crazed.

Whatever you do, don't do it to appease the masses; they squawked to high heaven when Bob Howsam traded Lee May and Tommy Helms for Joe Morgan et al, so what do they know? Besides, the fans want to win yesterday, and the best guy you can get may not even be ready for another two or three years. (We noticed that when Oakland traded starting pitcher Joe Blanton the other day, the crown jewel they got from the Phillies was a Single-A hitter).

Another reason to consider trading Arroyo is that there are some potentially big names on the free-agent pitching market. Trading Arroyo could free up some cash to go after CC Sabathia or Ben Sheets, with Derek Lowe, Oliver Perez, Jon Garland and A.J. Burnett as safety nets if you can't get the "Big Two." We know the "Big Two" would take big money, but we've never underestimated the Big Man's ability to dream. Sabathia and Sheets would be obvious upgrades over Arroyo, although we realize Sheets is a huge health risk.

By the way, we don't agree with Arroyo that if you trade him you are dumping salary and waving the white flag. But we understand his point. He's one of only 15 pitchers to throw 200 or more innings in each of the last three seasons. Prior to the start of this season, he was one of only six pitchers to throw 150 or more innings in each of the last four seasons while posting an ERA equal to or better than the league average.

We know that a lot of fans are concerned that his paycheck goes up considerably next year and even more in 2010, but he'll actually be just moving into the range of the going rate for pitchers with his numbers. (We feel your pain, Walt: It's hard to believe we've reached a time when slightly above-average starters are easily worth $10 million a season in free agency.)

Three-fifths of your rotation next season (Edinson Volquez, Johnny Cueto, Homer Bailey) won't be making much more than the league minimum, so money's not so much the issue with Arroyo. Having a somewhat reliable starter in the fourth or fifth spot can be the difference between a contender and a pretender. And there are still some big question marks with Bailey (consistency), Thompson and Bobby Livingston (health), so keeping Arroyo could provide insurance and allow them to mature.

Besides, you don't have to trade Arroyo. Any fan worth his or her salt - and there are plenty in Reds country - knows that trades work only if you can fill a hole without creating another one. If you have or can acquire somebody to replace Arroyo relatively soon, and can fill a hole (center fielder, corner outfielder, catcher, even a great-fielding shortstop who can hit a little), pull the trigger.

Oh, and Walt?

Good luck.

07-27-2008, 09:49 AM
Hawpe and Holliday for Arroyo? I think it's fair. Go for it, Walt.

07-27-2008, 09:55 AM
Hawpe and Holliday for Arroyo? I think it's fair. Go for it, Walt.

This also is from ESPN Insider on Holliday......

It has been back and forth with Matt Holliday rumors all season, but according to ESPN's Jayson Stark, he may not be traded by the Colorado Rockies.

According to Stark, one official from a contending club even went as far to say that Holliday may never be dealt by the Rockies because of how well he fits in with that team. "He'll get dangled all winter," said the official. "They'll take him to the winter meetings, and you'll hear all kinds of wild rumors. But they'll decide they're good enough to take him into next season and hold onto him right up to the deadline. Maybe they trade him then, but I think it's 50-50 that they never trade this guy. They love Matt Holliday. He embodies everything they believe in. So when it comes time to deal him, I don't think they can."


Now can Walt work his "magic" once again and possibly swing a deal?

If the Rockies think they have a shot in the weak NL West this year (and why couldn't they?), then they aren't going to trade Holliday who is so intregal to that success.

Any GM that would trade a calibre of a ballplayer like a Holliday for an Bronson Arroyo should lose his job. ;)

Holliday is signed through the '09 season and due 13.5 mil next year.

07-27-2008, 12:28 PM
I don't really like the option of trading Arroyo for a CF straight up. I'm probably the only 1, but I would take a Dickerson and Freel/Hopper platoon playing CF instead. As for the catching situation, unless it's the Rangers (or Rockies), I don't see trading trading Arroyo for a catcher being a good fit either.

If Arroyo is traded, I would prefer to get a SP back in return or at least a lineup changing bat, something that's just not likely to come at CF or C sans a few rare possibilities.

07-27-2008, 01:24 PM
How about Arroyo and Ross for Torrealba and Taveres, or Torrealba and Atkins?

In the first trade option, we get a new catcher (marginally better than our three existing catchers) plus a speedy CF who can lead off and is leading the NL in stolen bases. Torrealba is due to make the same amount of money ($3.5 million) in '09 as Ross, so we don't incur any salary bump there. We also don't with Taveres. His $1.9 million contract with the Rockies expires at the end of this season. But if we sign him for '09 at, say, $3 million, while letting Patterson walk, we have again upgraded without taking on any new salary. What that means: We can use the money slotted for Arroyo to go out on the free agent market and get us a starting pitcher like Lowe who also might represent a small, but measurable upgrade. Bingo -- we're that much closer to competing.

In the second option, we get same catcher, coupled with a big RH bat who could play 3B or 1B. Atkins' offers superior defense at 3B over EE. Atkins' existing $4.8 million contract with the Rockies expires this year, so we might have to pay him $6-$7 million to play for us in '09. Still, it could work for us in giving us some new offense to offset the loss of Dunn, should we let the big guy walk this winter. With Atkins at 3b, Votto at 1B and EE in LF, we get a better defense along with the bats to compete. And we have even more salary savings to spend for a quality SP on the free agent market this winter.

07-27-2008, 01:58 PM
The Reds only have three starters if they deal Arroyo. And they are all shaky in one way or another. OUtside of a couple low-inning poundings, Arroyo has been a credible starter who provides a chance to win. Those guys make 10 Million + these days.

07-27-2008, 04:02 PM
I'm all for trading Arroyo to someone (read: Texas) for one of their catchers, but only if Bob agrees, prior to the trade, that the Reds go HARD for CC in the off-season. If they can do that, they improve this team, immensely, imo.

They obv still need to find a corner OF and a CF, but shoring up the C and SP is a good start.