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I(heart)Freel
07-29-2008, 02:19 PM
Much is being made of Dunn this week. We're debating his worth to the team, whether to trade him and how he ranks among the elite sluggers the past 4 seasons etc.

I thought I would cut up his 2008 numbers a bit more. From following the team this year, I felt like his production came disproportionately from the long ball (ie I remember the walk off homers but I can't remember him getting that single with a guy on second when we needed it). So I went to the stats.

Full disclosure: I'm in the "trade Dunn" camp. I don't think he's worth what he'll make next year, so I think you trade him and get a great prospect. (I hear we're asking for two. I'd take a major league ready one now.) I do believe he's a fine ballplayer. But this team shouldn't pay someone 15-20 percent of their payroll for homerun-only RBI production. And that is pretty much Dunn. At the end of the year, his stats are impressive. But they are almost exclusively from an event that happens 40 or so times out of 600 or so plate appearances, over the course of the season. Let's say he hits 45 dongs this year. That's 45 out of 600 PAs. Or 7.5 percent of the time he comes to the plate. To me, that just doesn't cut it for RBI production. I would expect the highest paid batter on the team to not rely on the longball to drive in runs.

But here are the stats. Interpret as you will. And I know you will.


409 plate apps - breakdown

79 hits
76 walks
105 strikeouts
5 sacrifice flies
79 hits - breakdown

30 homers
0 triples
13 doubles
36 singles
30 homers - breakdown

18 solo
5 two-run
5 three-run
2 grand slams
72 RBIs Ė breakdown

51 from homeruns
21 from non-homeruns
RBI production via homerun (51) Ė breakdown

drove in 18 with bases empty (in 249 PAs)
drove in 6 with runner on first (in 53 PAs)
drove in 4 with runner on second (in 28 PAs)
drove in 0 with runner on third (in 13 PAs)
drove in 12 with runners on first and second (in 29 PAs)
drove in 3 with runners on first and third (in 10 PAs)
drove in 0 with runners on second and third (in 14 PAs)
drove in 8 with bases loaded (in 11 PAs)
RBI production not via homerun (21) Ė breakdown

never scored a man from first except via HR (in 50 PAs)
drove in 1 from second (in 26 PAs)
drove in 4 from third (in 13 PAs)
drove in 4 with runners on first and second (in 25 PAs)
drove in 4 with runners on first and third (in 9 PAs)
drove in 4 with runners on second and third (in 14 PAs)
drove in 4 with bases loaded (in 11 PAs)
2 from bases loaded walks

Fil3232
07-29-2008, 02:37 PM
Honestly, this is a bunch of noise.

Not a whole lot of good data on that list.

I(heart)Freel
07-29-2008, 02:43 PM
You werent surprised to see that he's driven in only 21 runs without the long ball?

That he's hit only 36 singles?

That's he hasn't driven in more than one runner from second base without the long ball?

Hmm. I was.

Ghosts of 1990
07-29-2008, 02:53 PM
However he's doing it. Keep on doing it. If we drafted a player or had a prospect that was projected to put up Dunn #'s like this over a 5 year period and beyond, you'd all be frothing at the mouth. But since it's Dunn and the rest of the team has been awful while he's been here and gone out every day and played, he is the scapegoat. Like the QB of a losing team even when that QB is a fine QB.

OUReds
07-29-2008, 02:53 PM
No, but I was surprised to see that he is top 10 in the league in RBIs despite playing on an offense that is 21st in MLB in OPS and 19th-21st in OBP. Replace Dunn's production with an average left fielder and it's even uglier of course.

I'm not sure where this weeks idea that homeruns=bad comes from.

Come to think of it, since the rest of the team doesn't really get on base at an acceptable rate (excluding Dunn of course 22nd in MLB in OBP), it's probably not much of a surprise that most of his team-dependent RBI numbers come via the longball.

BLEEDS
07-29-2008, 03:03 PM
That's he hasn't driven in more than one runner from second base without the long ball?

Hmm. I was.

That's because you're being myopic. Dunn bats 5th, not 3rd. If there's a guy on 2nd - and FIRST BASE IS OPEN - he's not getting anything to hit.

You may think Dunn is an easy out, but Pitchers don't, they'd rather pitch to EE 99 times out of 100.

That's something perhaps Dusty should read. Either he could a) put Dunn lower in the lineup to either take (further) advantage of him being pitched around so he could score 150 runs a year instead of 100 or b) put someone who can hit from both sides of the plate behind Dunn - like Votto - to give him more pitches to see and better concern for putting him on base.

NAH - let's get rid of him!!!

PEACE

-BLEEDS

BuckU
07-29-2008, 03:03 PM
You werent surprised to see that he's driven in only 21 runs without the long ball?

That he's hit only 36 singles?

That's he hasn't driven in more than one runner from second base without the long ball?

Hmm. I was.

I wasn't surprised. I think this tells a lot about the fluffy numbers that Dunn ends up with every year. Of course, no matter how much sense it makes, there are heards of people who are facinated with the homerun and think we can not supplement that production in other ways.

Fil3232
07-29-2008, 03:05 PM
I wasn't surprised. I think this tells a lot about the fluffy numbers that Dunn ends up with every year. Of course, no matter how much sense it makes, there are heards of people who are facinated with the homerun and think we can not supplement that production in other ways.

Define "fluffy."

And I'll pose this question- don't you wish the Reds had more guys who could produce such fluffy numbers?

SultanOfSwing
07-29-2008, 03:07 PM
You werent surprised to see that he's driven in only 21 runs without the long ball?

That he's hit only 36 singles?

That's he hasn't driven in more than one runner from second base without the long ball?

Hmm. I was.
Ummm... so what?

Why does it matter how a player drives in runs?
And what exactly is the correlation between singles and RBI?

You werent surprised to see that he's driven in only 21 runs without the long ball?

I do believe that would favor Dunn. Singles, doubles, and triples are all defense dependent. HR are not. Baserunning mistakes can be made, OF can make great throws, etc. HR are guaranteed RBI.

BLEEDS
07-29-2008, 03:10 PM
I wasn't surprised. I think this tells a lot about the fluffy numbers that Dunn ends up with every year. Of course, no matter how much sense it makes, there are heards of people who are facinated with the homerun and think we can not supplement that production in other ways.

PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE, I am ALL EARS waiting for someone to tell me how we can replace the RC that Dunn provides in other ways.

some guidelines:
1 - be specific
2 - be realistic - ie signing Manny Ramirez or Derek Lowe ain't happening. HOPING that some career back-up becomes an every day player overnight with Magic Reds Pixy-Dust isn't either.
3 - Don't make up Career Year projections for all other 7 guys in the lineup
4 - try to understand what you are projecting - OPS, RC, VORP, etc are measurable ways to actuate RUNS, PRODUCTION or WINS of individuals, not RBI (which is team dependent) and BA.


I've yet to see anything close, although the Kemp acquisition is a nice idea but it would only solve the CF issue, it really doesn't help us in LF.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

BuckU
07-29-2008, 03:13 PM
Define "fluffy."

And I'll pose this question- don't you wish the Reds had more guys who could produce such fluffy numbers?


What I mean is, looking at a HR/RBI line of 45/105 is nice, but take into account how many runs were left out there that could have been driven in with a simple base hit.

For your second question, no. Watching more than one extremely frustrating player would be difficult. The Reds have plenty of guys who can drive in runs (Votto, Phillips, EE, Bruce), if the lineup card was completed by somebody who had a strategy, weíd be able to see that.

OUReds
07-29-2008, 03:13 PM
I wasn't surprised. I think this tells a lot about the fluffy numbers that Dunn ends up with every year. Of course, no matter how much sense it makes, there are heards of people who are facinated with the homerun and think we can not supplement that production in other ways.

That's a strawman of the worst sort.

If Dunn leaves I'm not worried about replacing his homeruns, I'm worried about replacing his overall production PERIOD. No matter how it is accomplished.

BLEEDS
07-29-2008, 03:20 PM
The Reds have plenty of guys who can drive in runs (Votto, Phillips, EE, Bruce), if the lineup card was completed by somebody who had a strategy, weíd be able to see that.

Two "struggling" rookies, a Roller-Coaster up and down 3b-man, and a 2b who can't hit RHP to save his life and has more GIDP's in the last year and a half than Dunn has his ENTIRE CAREER.

Yes, they have POTENTIAL, but they are not anywhere NEAR consistent enough. WITH Dunn, we're a .729 OPS team, without him we're WAY under that....

WE NEED the Consistency of an Adam Dunn to be able to complement those 4 guys in particular. Getting rid of that, you are asking for a Miracle to produce runs - who do you think those guys are DRIVING IN?!?! HOW does Dunn get 100 runs every year? Without his OBP, those guys have NOBODY to drive in.

Some people just don't get it - it's not just his HITS, HR's and RBI's, it's that he GETS ON BASE for others. He gets on base 30+ more times a year than Brandon Phillips. Does that not mean anything to you people?!?!? 40 HRs leave 60 RUNS for his teammates to drive in, which is remarkable given that he's batting 5th in this lineup. IMAGINE if he was batting 2/3/4?!?!

PEACE

-BLEEDS

Lockdwn11
07-29-2008, 03:21 PM
Another Adam Dunn thread it's just like clock work:thumbdown

I(heart)Freel
07-29-2008, 03:24 PM
I'll reiterate why Dunn being homerun-dependent is a bad thing. (Homeruns aren't, but nice try OUReds.)

Because the event happens 7.5 percent of the time. Per my orig post.

I'm sorry for being so micro here, but that's what I do when I watch nearly every pitch of every game. This isn't aggregate, end-of-year stat dissection. It's in-game. It's game to game. It's pounding my head against the wall, saying "why dear Jesus why did we lose this game?" every night.

And I'm not excusing the rest of the team. The rest of the lineup is certainly to fault as well. But during the trading deadline week, I tend to focus in on pending free agents and ask... should we trade or hang on to them? Like it or not, Dunn is the top earner and a pending free agent. So yea... he's under my microscope.

I'm just thinking that the Reds shouldn't pay $15 million to someone who can seemingly only drive in runs using an event that happens 7.5 percent of the times he walks to the plate.

BuckU
07-29-2008, 03:29 PM
PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE, I am ALL EARS waiting for someone to tell me how we can replace the RC that Dunn provides in other ways.

some guidelines:
1 - be specific
2 - be realistic - ie signing Manny Ramirez or Derek Lowe ain't happening. HOPING that some career back-up becomes an every day player overnight with Magic Reds Pixy-Dust isn't either.
3 - Don't make up Career Year projections for all other 7 guys in the lineup
4 - try to understand what you are projecting - OPS, RC, VORP, etc are measurable ways to actuate RUNS, PRODUCTION or WINS of individuals, not RBI (which is team dependent) and BA.


I've yet to see anything close, although the Kemp acquisition is a nice idea but it would only solve the CF issue, it really doesn't help us in LF.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

Sorry, I'm no stat head, so I can't accommodate all your requests...

The goal is not necessarily to replace Dunn's production. The goal is to win more ballgames. Assuming Dunn is in line for 16m, like I have seen thrown around here, there is more than one way to do this. Realistically, I'll take a starting pitcher, relief pitcher and a marginally good outfielder over Dunn. With Jr. & Dunn gone, the lineup should be able to be rearranged to play to everybodyís strengths.

For example, Iíll take Mark Kotsay in center with Bruce moving to a corner spot. This will provide good D with decent offense and a decent leadoff hitter. Iíll take Jon Garland as a starting pitcher, who is better than most of the guys we have run out there in the 4 or 5 spots. Then Iíll take Kyle Farnsworth who can more than offset Weathers as a set up man.

Kotsay for about 4.5 million
Garland for 5.5 million
Farnsworth for 3.5 million

Dunn for 16M?

No, we wonít get 46 homeruns, but well stabilize centerfield, add a quality starting pitcher, and a consistently good RH power arm in the pen. Why do you have to make up all the runs you lose with Dunn, canít preventing runs from being scored counter some of it?

This is not the sexy strategy, but it would be a smart one.

Griffey012
07-29-2008, 03:30 PM
Much is being made of Dunn this week. We're debating his worth to the team, whether to trade him and how he ranks among the elite sluggers the past 4 seasons etc.

I thought I would cut up his 2008 numbers a bit more. From following the team this year, I felt like his production came disproportionately from the long ball (ie I remember the walk off homers but I can't remember him getting that single with a guy on second when we needed it). So I went to the stats.

Full disclosure: I'm in the "trade Dunn" camp. I don't think he's worth what he'll make next year, so I think you trade him and get a great prospect. (I hear we're asking for two. I'd take a major league ready one now.) I do believe he's a fine ballplayer. But this team shouldn't pay someone 15-20 percent of their payroll for homerun-only RBI production. And that is pretty much Dunn. At the end of the year, his stats are impressive. But they are almost exclusively from an event that happens 40 or so times out of 600 or so plate appearances, over the course of the season. Let's say he hits 45 dongs this year. That's 45 out of 600 PAs. Or 7.5 percent of the time he comes to the plate. To me, that just doesn't cut it for RBI production. I would expect the highest paid batter on the team to not rely on the longball to drive in runs.

But here are the stats. Interpret as you will. And I know you will.


409 plate apps - breakdown

79 hits
76 walks
105 strikeouts
5 sacrifice flies
79 hits - breakdown

30 homers
0 triples
13 doubles
36 singles
30 homers - breakdown

18 solo
5 two-run
5 three-run
2 grand slams
72 RBIs – breakdown

51 from homeruns
21 from non-homeruns
RBI production via homerun (51) – breakdown

drove in 18 with bases empty (in 249 PAs)
drove in 6 with runner on first (in 53 PAs)
drove in 4 with runner on second (in 28 PAs)
drove in 0 with runner on third (in 13 PAs)
drove in 12 with runners on first and second (in 29 PAs)
drove in 3 with runners on first and third (in 10 PAs)
drove in 0 with runners on second and third (in 14 PAs)
drove in 8 with bases loaded (in 11 PAs)
RBI production not via homerun (21) – breakdown

never scored a man from first except via HR (in 50 PAs)
drove in 1 from second (in 26 PAs)
drove in 4 from third (in 13 PAs)
drove in 4 with runners on first and second (in 25 PAs)
drove in 4 with runners on first and third (in 9 PAs)
drove in 4 with runners on second and third (in 14 PAs)
drove in 4 with bases loaded (in 11 PAs)
2 from bases loaded walks





I was surprised by none of this considering the data you used involved plate appearances and not AB's. Basically you are discounting the roughly 20% of PA's where Adam Dunn get's walked. Why don't we do a discussion about Ricky Henderson but not count his walks out of the leadoff spot and then argue whether or not he was a great leadoff hitter, you turn him into every other decent leadoff hitter and he is nothing special. You might be able to sway some people with your "data" or lack thereof who don't have a clue about baseball, but you can't propose an argument where taking a walk counts against the guy. He drove in 1 runner from 2nd in 26 PA's not by the home run, how many of those times do you think he got walked, or else saw nothing but the pitchers nibbling the corners with their best pitches.

OUReds
07-29-2008, 03:33 PM
I'll reiterate why Dunn being homerun-dependent is a bad thing. (Homeruns aren't, but nice try OUReds.)

Because the event happens 7.5 percent of the time. Per my orig post.

I'm sorry for being so micro here, but that's what I do when I watch nearly every pitch of every game. This isn't aggregate, end-of-year stat dissection. It's in-game. It's game to game. It's pounding my head against the wall, saying "why dear Jesus why did we lose this game?" every night.

And I'm not excusing the rest of the team. The rest of the lineup is certainly to fault as well. But during the trading deadline week, I tend to focus in on pending free agents and ask... should we trade or hang on to them? Like it or not, Dunn is the top earner and a pending free agent. So yea... he's under my microscope.

I'm just thinking that the Reds shouldn't pay $15 million to someone who can seemingly only drive in runs using an event that happens 7.5 percent of the times he walks to the plate.

You are really missing the forest for the trees here. If you are focused so much on on the micro, you can pick apart any player.

Dunn is not only contributing to the offense 7.5% of the time, not by a longshot. He is getting on base more often then anyone on the team, a big deal for a team well below average in OBP.

I'm not thrilled with paying Adam 15 Million dollars either, but I very much want the Reds to win, and without him (barring Walt completely swindeling another GM) it's just not gonna happen the next couple years.

Griffey012
07-29-2008, 03:43 PM
And some other Dunn info, runner on 3rd, less than 2 outs, 1 home run and 18rbi's in 23 AB's with 4 walks. So 17 of the 27 times he has came to the plate he has got the run in, 4 times he got walked.

With RISP and 2 outs, he has 20 RBI in 33 AB's with an OBP of .450 and is slugging .818.

I(heart)Freel
07-29-2008, 03:53 PM
I was surprised by none of this considering the data you used involved plate appearances and not AB's. Basically you are discounting the roughly 20% of PA's where Adam Dunn get's walked. Why don't we do a discussion about Ricky Henderson but not count his walks out of the leadoff spot and then argue whether or not he was a great leadoff hitter, you turn him into every other decent leadoff hitter and he is nothing special. You might be able to sway some people with your "data" or lack thereof who don't have a clue about baseball, but you can't propose an argument where taking a walk counts against the guy. He drove in 1 runner from 2nd in 26 PA's not by the home run, how many of those times do you think he got walked, or else saw nothing but the pitchers nibbling the corners with their best pitches.

The discussion is what happens when Dunn comes to the plate in situations. So yes... I did PAs. I think I listed his walks.

And I'll answer your specific question... he walked 4 times with a guy on second.

Is the highest paid slugger and best offensive weapon on the team above this scrutiny?

BLEEDS
07-29-2008, 03:56 PM
Back to the RBI argument - here's a good analysis of HOW COME he "ONLY" scores RBIs in "blah blah blah"...

""
Dunn has mostly batted fifth for Cincinnati this season. The on-base percentages for the 1 through 4 hitters in the Reds’ lineup this season has been .323/.320/.340/.325. Compare that to the Mets, who have gotten OBPs of .363/.370/.389/.367 from their 1 through 4 hitters. That’s an additional 40 to 50 points of on-base percentage at each position, which works out to approximately 80 more baserunners in front of the fifth-place hitter in the lineup. Had Dunn been batting fifth for the Mets all season and put up equal numbers, he would be good for an additional 20 RBIs or so. Would his detractors sneer at 29 home runs and 88 RBIs in 99 games?
""


Yep, that stupid OBP again - not BA, not Stolen Bases, not RISP - but GETTING ON BASE IN FRONT OF GUYS WHO HIT.

Weird, I know.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

757690
07-29-2008, 04:04 PM
Even including the walks, what these stats show is that Dunn is a very productive hitter and a very valuable part of any offense, but that he should not be central part of any offense. He needs another big bat, one whose OPS is average driven as opposed to HR and walk driven.

It is not that one is more valuable than the other, but just that you need both. Or more precisely, a team with a player like Dunn, without an average driven player to counter him, will always be in the bottom half of the league in terms of run production, like the Reds have been for nearly every year that Dunn has been the key part of its offense.

Griffey012
07-29-2008, 04:08 PM
Sorry, I'm no stat head, so I can't accommodate all your requests...

The goal is not necessarily to replace Dunn's production. The goal is to win more ballgames. Assuming Dunn is in line for 16m, like I have seen thrown around here, there is more than one way to do this. Realistically, I'll take a starting pitcher, relief pitcher and a marginally good outfielder over Dunn. With Jr. & Dunn gone, the lineup should be able to be rearranged to play to everybodyís strengths.

For example, Iíll take Mark Kotsay in center with Bruce moving to a corner spot. This will provide good D with decent offense and a decent leadoff hitter. Iíll take Jon Garland as a starting pitcher, who is better than most of the guys we have run out there in the 4 or 5 spots. Then Iíll take Kyle Farnsworth who can more than offset Weathers as a set up man.

Kotsay for about 4.5 million
Garland for 5.5 million
Farnsworth for 3.5 million

Dunn for 16M?

No, we wonít get 46 homeruns, but well stabilize centerfield, add a quality starting pitcher, and a consistently good RH power arm in the pen. Why do you have to make up all the runs you lose with Dunn, canít preventing runs from being scored counter some of it?

This is not the sexy strategy, but it would be a smart one.

First off Garland is making 12 million this year and having probably his 2nd best year in the bigs, I don't think he will get 12, but 8-10 is more realistic.
Kotsay would be a fine acquisition except his health is a little scary, however he would be fine in center next between Dunn and Bruce. And Farnsworth, can we just keep Lincoln, Affeldt, or bring someone up instead of paying 3.5 million to that guy.

OUReds
07-29-2008, 04:11 PM
Even including the walks, what these stats show is that Dunn is a very productive hitter and a very valuable part of any offense, but that he should not be central part of any offense. He needs another big bat, one whose OPS is average driven as opposed to HR and walk driven.

It is not that one is more valuable than the other, but just that you need both. Or more precisely, a team with a player like Dunn, without an average driven player to counter him, will always be in the bottom half of the league in terms of run production, like the Reds have been for nearly every year that Dunn has been the key part of its offense.

Like 2005 when Cincy was 4th in MLB in runs scored, 5th in OPS, and 20th in batting average? :p:

757690
07-29-2008, 04:17 PM
Like 2005 when Cincy was 4th in MLB in runs scored, 5th in OPS, and 20th in batting average? :p:

The word "nearly" means almost always, not always. One out of seven years. I wouldn't brag about that.

Griffey012
07-29-2008, 04:19 PM
The discussion is what happens when Dunn comes to the plate in situations. So yes... I did PAs. I think I listed his walks.

And I'll answer your specific question... he walked 4 times with a guy on second.

Is the highest paid slugger and best offensive weapon on the team above this scrutiny?

You listed the walks, but then use PA appearance to point out that he only gets a run in this situation 1 ou of 25 times not via the home run. Yea, you listed it, but you are still using it against him. It's simple display of trying to skew statistics towards your argument.

OUReds
07-29-2008, 04:21 PM
The word "nearly" means almost always, not always. One out of seven years. I wouldn't brag about that.

There is consistently a much higher correlation between OPS and runs scored then BA and runs scored, it's not just one year. If you needed both, that wouldn't be the case.

BLEEDS
07-29-2008, 04:28 PM
The goal is not necessarily to replace Dunn's production. The goal is to win more ballgames.

I like some of your suggestions, however in order to win more ballgames, you are going to HAVE to replace Dunn's production.

Runs Created, VORP, and Win Shares DIRECTLY correlate to winning games.

You can't say "I'm not a stat-head" but then say you want to replace Dunn with Mark Kotsay and think that helps you win more ballgames.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

BuckU
07-29-2008, 04:35 PM
You can't say "I'm not a stat-head" but then say you want to replace Dunn with Mark Kotsay and think that helps you win more ballgames.




I didn't say I want Kotsay, or Garland or Farnsworth specifically, it was an example.

The point I was trying to make is you don't have to replace Dunn, homer for homer, run for run because you are not going to find that in the open market. You can reallocate those dollars in other areas that might keep the opponent from scoring more runs and adding to areas where the Reds lack (Centerfield D, leadoff hitter), thus ultimately, improving the ballclub as a whole. We've had Dunn, it didn't work, time to try something else, a new strategy.

Griffey012
07-29-2008, 04:45 PM
How about we compare Dunn's rbi production with runners on base and compare it to some of the league leaders in Rbi's:

Runners on, 1rbi every 2.87 PA's and 1 rbi every 2.31 ab's
RISP, 1 rbi every 2.13 PA' and 1 rbi every 1.75 ab's
RISP 2 outs, 1 rbi every 2.2 PA's and 1 rbi every 1.65 ab's

Using those numbers and putting him in Ryan Howard's spot in the Phillies lineup:
runners on 228 PA's = 79rbi's to Howards 78: based on 198 = AB's 85 rbi to Howards 78
RISP: 154 PA's = 72rbi's to Howards 65: based on 127 AB's = 72 rbi to Howards 65
RISP 2 outs: 80PA's = 36rbi to Howards 26: based on 66 AB's = 40 to Howards 26

Vs. Josh Hamilton using PA's because I am getting bored:
Runners on 231 PA's = 80 rbi's to Hamiltons 93
RISP on 143 PA's = 67 to Hamiltons 79
RISP 2 Outs: 65 PA's = 30 to Hamilton's 36.

He would top Hamilton using AB's because Dunn is one of the, if not most, pitched around hitters in the game. Also, just using this method, it equivalates Dunn's numbers against other players based on the number of times the player has been in the situation. Dunn has been in these situations much less than Ryan Howard of Josh Hamilton, hence why Dunn has so many fewer RBI's on the season. But I bet almost everyone on this board would pay 12-15 million to have Howard of Hamilton in our lineup.

Griffey012
07-29-2008, 04:48 PM
I didn't say I want Kotsay, or Garland or Farnsworth specifically, it was an example.

The point I was trying to make is you don't have to replace Dunn, homer for homer, run for run because you are not going to find that in the open market. You can reallocate those dollars in other areas that might keep the opponent from scoring more runs and adding to areas where the Reds lack (Centerfield D, leadoff hitter), thus ultimately, improving the ballclub as a whole. We've had Dunn, it didn't work, time to try something else, a new strategy.

Let me insert a portion of a post I made in another thread yesterday:
"Instead of harping on guys like {blank} and Dunn all the time, and taking out the anger we all have of stinking and having these losing seasons. We should be looking at a group of posterboys similar to the following: Jimmy Haynes, Joey Hamilton, Steve Parris, Osvaldo Fernandez, Eric Milton, Rob Bell, Jose "Ace"vedo, Elmer Dessens, Chris Reitsma, Brian Reith, Brian Moehler, Shawn Estes, Jared Fernandez, Jeff Austin, Jimmy Anderson, Seth Etherton, John Bale, Danny Graves the starter, Rijo, Juan Bong, Brandon Claussen, Todd Van Poppel, Dave Williams, Reggie Taylor, Michael Tucker, Alex Ochoa, and a number of many more "5" tool outfielders."

How can you even say we have had Dunn and it didn't work, what in the world has Dunn had to work with?

BuckU
07-29-2008, 04:58 PM
Let me insert a portion of a post I made in another thread yesterday:
"Instead of harping on guys like {blank} and Dunn all the time, and taking out the anger we all have of stinking and having these losing seasons. We should be looking at a group of posterboys similar to the following: Jimmy Haynes, Joey Hamilton, Steve Parris, Osvaldo Fernandez, Eric Milton, Rob Bell, Jose "Ace"vedo, Elmer Dessens, Chris Reitsma, Brian Reith, Brian Moehler, Shawn Estes, Jared Fernandez, Jeff Austin, Jimmy Anderson, Seth Etherton, John Bale, Danny Graves the starter, Rijo, Juan Bong, Brandon Claussen, Todd Van Poppel, Dave Williams, Reggie Taylor, Michael Tucker, Alex Ochoa, and a number of many more "5" tool outfielders."

How can you even say we have had Dunn and it didn't work, what in the world has Dunn had to work with?

How can you have this list without including Wilton Guerrero?

I didn't say it was fair. There are two main cogs that are still on the team that can be associated with all those guys.. Incidentally, those same two guys might not be back next year. The Brewers were as horrible as the Reds from 2000-2006. Who do they still have on their club from 2002? Richie Sexson hit a lot of homeruns too. He’s gone. Geoff Jenkins, time to move on. Sheets? I’d hang on to him too. Jose Hernandez? Go whiff somewhere else.

Dean Taylor went out the door and Doug Melvin made some moves. Hopefully Jocketty does the same. Sometimes it just becomes time to change the culture of a baseball club.

Griffey012
07-29-2008, 05:08 PM
Well maybe we should get rid of Phillips and Harang because they have all been part of the losing environment for a few years too.

BuckU
07-29-2008, 05:10 PM
Well maybe we should get rid of Phillips and Harang because they have all been part of the losing environment for a few years too.

Wow, you missed the point.

757690
07-29-2008, 05:14 PM
I like some of your suggestions, however in order to win more ballgames, you are going to HAVE to replace Dunn's production.

Runs Created, VORP, and Win Shares DIRECTLY correlate to winning games.

You can't say "I'm not a stat-head" but then say you want to replace Dunn with Mark Kotsay and think that helps you win more ballgames.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

Not to defend adding Mark Kotsay, but there are many ways to replace a departing hitters production.

Look at the Marlins.

They lost Miguel Cabrera this year. That is losing this production

320 .401 .565 91 Runs, 119 RBI's 34 HR.

That is very similar to the Reds losing Dunn.

They are on pace to score only 16 less runs than they did last year.

They replaced Cabrera's production, with Cantu, who is having a good offensive year, but nowhere near the numbers that Cabrera delivered, and with Jacobs having a better year, as is Cody Ross and Dan Uggla.

They also are on pace to give up over 70 less runs than last year. So after getting rid of Cabrera's production, they improved their overall run production and runs allowed by 56 runs.

I am not saying that the Reds will or can improve the team by 56 runs if they get rid of Dunn. The point is that the Reds team next year will be very different from the one on the field now. They have 15 free agents. They will have plenty of places to replace Dunn's production throughout the whole roster, if they choose not to resign him.

Griffey012
07-29-2008, 05:20 PM
Wow, you missed the point.

Your claiming we should get rid of Dunn because he came up through the minors with the Reds and has been so fortunate to play for a joke of ownership and management until recently. None of us know anything about Dunn in the locker room, out of the game, in the offseason, he may be a hard worker, and may be a winner. No player could make the team we have had a winner, no matter how good they were. There is no reason to get rid of him when you have noone to replace him. The brewers traded for a package of 6 players for Sexson, we aren't gonna get that from Dunn. They kept Jenkins until this season because they had Braun to replace him. Griffey is gone and he should be, I for one think this team is very competitive next season, but without Dunn, there's no way.

OUReds
07-29-2008, 05:21 PM
Yes, Florida was able to replace Cabrera and essentially remain a little above average offensively.

If the Reds pull off the same task next year and just replace Adam's production, they are going to remain a very poor offensive club.

To be competitive short term the Reds need to drastically IMPROVE their offense, not just spin their wheels.

BuckU
07-29-2008, 05:21 PM
Not to defend adding Mark Kotsay, but there are many ways to replace a departing hitters production.

Look at the Marlins.

They lost Miguel Cabrera this year. That is losing this production

320 .401 .565 91 Runs, 119 RBI's 34 HR.

That is very similar to the Reds losing Dunn.

They are on pace to score only 16 less runs than they did last year.

They replaced Cabrera's production, with Cantu, who is having a good offensive year, but nowhere near the numbers that Cabrera delivered, and with Jacobs having a better year, as is Cody Ross and Dan Uggla.

They also are on pace to give up over 70 less runs than last year. So after getting rid of Cabrera's production, they improved their overall run production and runs allowed by 56 runs.

I am not saying that the Reds will or can improve the team by 56 runs if they get rid of Dunn. The point is that the Reds team next year will be very different from the one on the field now. They have 15 free agents. They will have plenty of places to replace Dunn's production throughout the whole roster, if they choose not to resign him.

*Gasp* You mean they didn't replace his exact production?? ;)

(That's an excellent example)

Griffey012
07-29-2008, 05:23 PM
Florida also traded him for a package of very good young talent, we are not getting that package of young talent for Dunn. And with all that is coming off the books, its not gonna be hard to keep Dunn and boost the overall team substantially, through many positions.

CWRed
07-29-2008, 05:36 PM
You werent surprised to see that he's driven in only 21 runs without the long ball?

That he's hit only 36 singles?

That's he hasn't driven in more than one runner from second base without the long ball?

Hmm. I was.

So yes by all means, throw out the 30 HOME RUNS he's hit. I can barely stand it any more. :eek:


36 singles! Oh no. The horror!

BLEEDS
07-29-2008, 05:46 PM
Yes, Florida was able to replace Cabrera and essentially remain a little above average offensively.

If the Reds pull off the same task next year and just replace Adam's production, they are going to remain a very poor offensive club.

To be competitive short term the Reds need to drastically IMPROVE their offense, not just spin their wheels.

There's your answer, they hit on just about every person in their lineup and minor acquisitions to strike gold. It happens, but it's not likely to repeat.

They are also on pace to GIVE UP 70 less runs, which is a bigger reason they are remaining on pace. They have about 50 starts from guys with ERA's at or under 4.0x, while the Reds have 1 SP with an ERA under 4.75.

Again, you can HOPE and PRAY, but Dunn is an even BIGGER hole to fill than Cabrera was.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

levydl
07-29-2008, 06:05 PM
I'll reiterate why Dunn being homerun-dependent is a bad thing. (Homeruns aren't, but nice try OUReds.)

Because the event happens 7.5 percent of the time. Per my orig post.

I'm sorry for being so micro here, but that's what I do when I watch nearly every pitch of every game. This isn't aggregate, end-of-year stat dissection. It's in-game. It's game to game. It's pounding my head against the wall, saying "why dear Jesus why did we lose this game?" every night.

And I'm not excusing the rest of the team. The rest of the lineup is certainly to fault as well. But during the trading deadline week, I tend to focus in on pending free agents and ask... should we trade or hang on to them? Like it or not, Dunn is the top earner and a pending free agent. So yea... he's under my microscope.

I'm just thinking that the Reds shouldn't pay $15 million to someone who can seemingly only drive in runs using an event that happens 7.5 percent of the times he walks to the plate.

That's true, 7.5% of the time when Adam Dunn walks to the plate he hits a HR (30 HRs out of 414 PAs, actually 7.3% or about once every 14 PAs).
Dunn has 72 RBI total.
Dunn has 51 RBI from those 30 HRs.
Dunn has 13 doubles. 2 of them were RBI scoring, for 4 total RBI.
Dunn has 36 singles. 8 of them were RBI scoring, for 8 total RBI.
Dunn has 76 walks. 2 of them were RBI scoring.
Dunn has 5 RBI producing sac flies.
Dunn has 2 RBI ground outs.

So while he hits a HR 7.3% of the time, he has a non-HR RBI hit/sac fly/walk/groundout 19 times out of 414 PA, or about 4.6% of the time.
Thus, Dunn drives in at least 1 run about 12% of the time he comes up to bat, or about every 8.4 PAs.


Now, let's compare that to Albert Pujols (I just picked someone really freaking good at random as a comparison).

Pujols has 20 HRs in 408 PAs. So he hits a HR about 5% of the time, or once every 20 PAs.
Pujols has 63 RBI total.
Pujols has 28 RBI from those 20 HRs.
Pujols has 23 doubles. 9 of them were RBI scoring, for a total of 15 RBI.
Pujols has 74 singles. 10 of them were RBI scoring, for a total of 10 RBI.
Pujols has 67 walks. 1 was RBI scoring.
Pujols has 6 RBI producing sac flies.
Pujols has 2 RBI groundouts.

So, while Pujols hits a HR about 5% of the time, he has a non-HR RBI hit/sac fly/walk/groundout 28 times out of 408 PAs, or not quite 7% of the time. Thus, Pujols drives in at least 1 run about 12% of the time he comes up to bat, or once every 8.5 PAs.


How about with Lance Berkman.

Berkman has 22 HRs in 440 PAs. So he hits a HR exactly 5% of the time, or exactly once every 20 PAs.
Berkman has 76 RBI total.
Berkman has 35 RBI from those 22 HRs.
Berkman has 3 triples. 2 of them were RBI scoring, for a total of 4 RBI.
Berkman has 31 doubles. 12 of them were RBI scoring, for a total of 14 RBI.
Berkman has 71 singles. 15 of them were RBI scoring, for a total of 16 RBI.
Berkman has 64 walks. 1 was RBI scoring.
Berkman has 3 RBI producing sac flies.
Berkman has 1 RBI groundouts.
(Berkman also has 3 other RBI, but I can't figure out where they come from).

So, while Berkman hits a HR 5% of the time, he has a non-HR RBI hit/sac fly/walk/groundout 38 times out of 440 PAs, or about 8.6% of the time. Therefore, Berkman drives in at least 1 run about 13.5% of the time he comes to the plate, or once every 7.3 PAs.


How about Ryan Braun.

Braun has 29 HRs in 453 PAs. That's a HR 6.4% of the time, or every 15.6 PAs.
Braun has 81 RBI total.
Braun has 41 RBI from those 29 HRs.
Braun has 6 triples. 2 of those were RBI scoring, for a total of 2 RBI.
Braun has 26 doubles. 8 of those were RBI scoring, for a total of 13 RBI.
Braun has 67 singles. 17 of those were RBI scoring, for a total of 19 RBI.
Braun has 4 RBI producing sac flies.
Braun has 1 RBI groundouts.
(Braun also has 1 other RBI, but I can't figure out where it comes from).

While Braun hits a HR about 6.4% of the time, he has a non-HR RBI hit/sac fly/walk/groundout 33 times out of 453 PAs, or 7.3% of the time. So Braun drives in at least 1 run about 13.7% of the time, or once per every 7.3 PAs.


Now Ryan Howard.

Howard has 30 HRs in 457 PAs. That's a HR 6.6% of the time, or every 15.2 PAs.
Howard has 94 RBI total.
Howard has 48 RBI from those 30 HRs.
Howard has 2 triples. 2 of those were RBI scoring, for a total of 2 RBI.
Howard has 13 doubles. 9 of those were RBI scoring, for a total of 10 RBI.
Howard has 50 singles. 23 of those were RBI scoring, for a total of 27 RBI.
Howard has 50 walks. 1 drove in a run.
Howard has 3 RBI producing sac flies.
Howard has 2 RBI groundouts.
(Howard also has 1 other RBI, but I can't figure out where it comes from).

While Howard hits a HR about 6.6% of the time, he has a non-HR RBI hit/sac fly/walk/groundout 41 times out of 457 PAs, or just under 9% of the time. So Howard drives in at least 1 run about 15.5% of the time, or once per every 6.4 PAs.


Let's do it for Brandon Phillips, a different type of hitter.

Phillips has 16 HRs in 448 PAs. That's a HR 3.6% of the time, or every 28 PAs.
Phillips has 62 RBI total.
Phillips has 22 RBI from those 16 HRs.
Phillips has 5 triples. 2 of those were RBI scoring, for a total of 4 RBI.
Phillips has 19 doubles. 3 of those were RBI scoring, for a total of 3 RBI.
Phillips has 74 singles. 19 of those were RBI scoring, for a total of 24 RBI.
Phillips has 5 RBI producing sac flies.
Phillips has 2 RBI groundouts.

While Phillips hits a HR about 3.6% of the time, he has a non-HR RBI hit/sac fly/walk/groundout 31 times out of 448 PAs, or not quite 7% of the time. So Phillips drives in at least 1 run about 10.5% of the time, or once per every 9.5 PAs.


So, what does this say? It says that even the best hitters will have an RBI producing hit only about 12-15% of the time. Out of that, they only drive in a run without hitting a HR 7-9% of the time, about the same percent of the time Dunn hits a HR.

I(heart)Freel
07-29-2008, 06:07 PM
They are also on pace to GIVE UP 70 less runs, which is a bigger reason they are remaining on pace. They have about 50 starts from guys with ERA's at or under 4.0x, while the Reds have 1 SP with an ERA under 4.75.



Even more reason to use Dunn's salary ($15 million-ish) on pitching.

Preferably ground ball inducers. Hmm. To whom am I referring?

I think we should do with outfielders what Beane does to the closer position. Bring someone in who is undervalued but with pop, let them play 81 games at our park, jack up their numbers and trade value, and then spin them off for prospects.

757690
07-29-2008, 06:18 PM
There's your answer, they hit on just about every person in their lineup and minor acquisitions to strike gold. It happens, but it's not likely to repeat.


They also lost Olivo at catcher, that is around 50 points of OPS.

They only guys who improved significantly were Uggla, Jacobs and Ross. So they lost two guys, including their best run producer, and gained three. That is not striking gold. That happens all the time.


They are also on pace to GIVE UP 70 less runs, which is a bigger reason they are remaining on pace. They have about 50 starts from guys with ERA's at or under 4.0x, while the Reds have 1 SP with an ERA under 4.75.

Exactly. The Reds should have better years from Harang and Arroyo, and hopefully Cueto, and Bailey. That would make up a ton of runs next year.


Again, you can HOPE and PRAY, but Dunn is an even BIGGER hole to fill than Cabrera was.

Dunn career OPS .903
Cabrera career OPS .917

Cabrera can play third, first, left or right field. Dunn can play LF or DH. And Cabrera is four years younger.

So you are saying that you would rather have Dunn than Cabrera?

I can't wait to hear this.




PEACE

-BLEEDS[/QUOTE]

I(heart)Freel
07-29-2008, 06:25 PM
So, what does this say? It says that even the best hitters will have an RBI producing hit only about 12-15% of the time. Out of that, they only drive in a run without hitting a HR 7-9% of the time, about the same percent of the time Dunn hits a HR.


Really nice legwork and compilation.

And your point is valid and well received.

I just still am hung up on Dunn's low non-homer RBI rate (4.6 percent) versus his peers that you mention (6.9, 8.6, 7.3, 8.9, 6.9). I know I shouldn't be but I am.

levydl
07-30-2008, 02:21 AM
Really nice legwork and compilation.

And your point is valid and well received.

I just still am hung up on Dunn's low non-homer RBI rate (4.6 percent) versus his peers that you mention (6.9, 8.6, 7.3, 8.9, 6.9). I know I shouldn't be but I am.

I really like Adam Dunn, but I can see the other side to a certain extent. I think the ultimate problem people who don't like Dunn have with him is, even as good as he is, he really could be better. He was a .300 hitter in minors. He has a long swing, but it's a pretty stroke. He has great talent. He's could get in much better shape.

Even though he's incredibly productive, I think people don't see all that he has achieved, but instead look at the part where he's seemed to underachieve. It also doesn't help that his weaknesses coincide with a lot of the team's weaknesses as a whole. Rely on the HR, low average (and thus, bad with runners in scoring position), look like they don't care at times or that they aren't reaching their full potential. And then some blame Dunn (and Griffey) for the team's failures (and more).

So, while I think Dunn's worth a lot, and I think we definitely should resign him for 4-5 years, I understand why people have the opposite opinion. He's got big, glaring holes that can take away the focus from the giant background that he has filled in (to get metaphorical). But, at the end of the day, we need his production, and we should build around it.

Ahhhorsepoo
07-30-2008, 01:42 PM
Bleeds is the biggest Dunn Homer of all time.. can we officially give him that title?

CWRed
07-30-2008, 08:38 PM
Back to the RBI argument - here's a good analysis of HOW COME he "ONLY" scores RBIs in "blah blah blah"...

""
Dunn has mostly batted fifth for Cincinnati this season. The on-base percentages for the 1 through 4 hitters in the Redsí lineup this season has been .323/.320/.340/.325. Compare that to the Mets, who have gotten OBPs of .363/.370/.389/.367 from their 1 through 4 hitters. Thatís an additional 40 to 50 points of on-base percentage at each position, which works out to approximately 80 more baserunners in front of the fifth-place hitter in the lineup. Had Dunn been batting fifth for the Mets all season and put up equal numbers, he would be good for an additional 20 RBIs or so. Would his detractors sneer at 29 home runs and 88 RBIs in 99 games?
""


Yep, that stupid OBP again - not BA, not Stolen Bases, not RISP - but GETTING ON BASE IN FRONT OF GUYS WHO HIT.

Weird, I know.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

...but few will listen my brother...:cry:

BLEEDS
07-31-2008, 10:59 AM
...but few will listen my brother...:cry:

Yeah, I know. :thumbdown

I like the quote from the ORG on Dusty Lineups:

Centerfield
Shortstop
Respect
Free Swinger
OBP
OBP
OBP
Catcher


He's about as clueless as they come, although he has surprised me a couple of times - but then he puts Corey F Patterson batting lead-off time and time again!! :bang::bang::bang:

Now the RESPECT looks to be traded, I am interested to see how he bats BP to complement Dunn and the other good OBP guys on our team.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

Ahhhorsepoo
07-31-2008, 11:49 AM
If he bats BPhill behind dunn there is a serious problem.. you immediately take away phillips speed..

I know griffey was there before but dunn walks soo often that you honestly make phillips a 15 sb guy immediately and make him completely hampered on the basepath.. i would put BPhill 3 then dunn 4 if we are gonna keep dunn..