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View Full Version : Dusty hearts walks



Chip R
07-30-2008, 01:42 PM
http://news.cincinnati.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080730/SPT04/807300355/1071

wolfboy
07-30-2008, 01:57 PM
"The key is if you get a good pitch to hit, whack it. As a hitter, if you get a good pitch to hit and you hit it hard, you've done your job. ... If you do that seven out of 10 times, you've got to a good chance of getting four or five hits."

Memo to Dusty:

That "good pitch to hit" is called a strike. Strikes do not result in walks.

p.s. stop giving Fay extra opportunities to look bad.

RedsManRick
07-30-2008, 02:02 PM
What's scary is that if by "hit it hard", Dusty means "hit a line drive", then his math is pretty good. Unfortunately, even the very best hitters only hit line drives 25% of the time -- not 70%.

The other thing I question is the differentiation between a strike and "a good pitch to hit". Dunn's primary weakness is that his range of "good pitches to hit" isn't all that big. Watching a strike and watching a good pitch to hit are two different things.

Spring~Fields
07-30-2008, 02:55 PM
"Things aren't going too well," Reds manager Dusty Baker said. "This is the third streak we've been on like this. We've got to win that game (today)."



The Reds have scored a total of nine runs over their last five games.
"We've made a lot of people look good lately," Baker said.

http://news.cincinnati.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080730/SPT04/807300354/1071

37red
07-30-2008, 02:55 PM
It definitely doesn't have to be a strike and at the same time be a good ball to hit. That's up to the umpire a lot of times. A lot of balls are hit into the holes and a lot aren't, so the point is true. If you hit the ball enough times eventually you'll get one that counts.

LvJ
07-30-2008, 02:56 PM
http://www.onbaseplusslugging.com/playerphotos/bakerlovespatterson2.gif

Spring~Fields
07-30-2008, 03:08 PM
http://www.onbaseplusslugging.com/playerphotos/bakerlovespatterson2.gif

Lineup
Centerfielder
Shortstop
Respect
Free Swinger
OBP
OBP
OBP
OBP

KronoRed
07-30-2008, 03:12 PM
http://www.onbaseplusslugging.com/playerphotos/bakerlovespatterson2.gif

Father and Son...Awww :D

BRM
07-30-2008, 03:16 PM
Lineup
Centerfielder
Shortstop
Respect
Free Swinger
OBP
OBP
OBP
OBP

Perfect!

edabbs44
07-30-2008, 03:19 PM
What's scary is that if by "hit it hard", Dusty means "hit a line drive", then his math is pretty good. Unfortunately, even the very best hitters only hit line drives 25% of the time -- not 70%.

The other thing I question is the differentiation between a strike and "a good pitch to hit". Dunn's primary weakness is that his range of "good pitches to hit" isn't all that big. Watching a strike and watching a good pitch to hit are two different things.

Sometimes we take the analytical side of the game a bit too far. I think that this is one of those times.

RedsManRick
07-30-2008, 03:24 PM
Lineup
Centerfielder
Shortstop
Respect
Free Swinger
OBP
OBP
OBP
Catcher

To be fair, I made a small adjustment. Otherwise, spot on!

wolfboy
07-30-2008, 03:24 PM
It definitely doesn't have to be a strike and at the same time be a good ball to hit. That's up to the umpire a lot of times. A lot of balls are hit into the holes and a lot aren't, so the point is true. If you hit the ball enough times eventually you'll get one that counts.

So are you saying that there are a lot of good pitches to hit that aren't strikes?

Spring~Fields
07-30-2008, 03:24 PM
Sometimes we take the analytical side of the game a bit too far. I think that this is one of those times.


How about this ?

What we were told on January 20, 2006

Dear Cincinnati Reds Fans,

We are proud to be the new owners

We know what a winning team can do for a city's pride.

It is with a sense of both responsibility and respect

that we pledge to Reds fans:

We will bring championship baseball to Cincinnati.

We will work hard to be a championship team again.

We will build one of the most respected organizations in baseball.

As partners in other successful baseball organizations we know how it's done.

We will build a winning management team by putting the right people in the right positions with the right resources to win.

We will foster a winning attitude and culture.

You buy the tickets.

You watch the games.

You support us financially and emotionally.

Without you, the Reds cannot be great.

We will work tirelessly to bring a winner home to you.

Yeah, soon as I eat this orange, second Tuesday of next week. :lol:

RedsManRick
07-30-2008, 03:26 PM
Sometimes we take the analytical side of the game a bit too far. I think that this is one of those times.

And sometimes we mistake a mirage for an oasis. Dusty sees the puzzle but doesn't quite understand how the pieces fit together. I see nothing wrong with pointing that out.

BRM
07-30-2008, 03:32 PM
Dusty loves walks...as long as they don't occur at the top of the order.

flyer85
07-30-2008, 03:35 PM
Dusty loves walks.too bad his players don't.

Spring~Fields
07-30-2008, 03:36 PM
To be fair, I made a small adjustment. Otherwise, spot on!

Seems that you are correct sir. :)

BRM
07-30-2008, 03:38 PM
too bad his players don't.

One of them does.

flyer85
07-30-2008, 03:40 PM
One of them does.actually 2 of them don't mind it.

BRM
07-30-2008, 03:41 PM
actually 2 of them don't mind it.

You could make a case for EE and Ross as well.

Falls City Beer
07-30-2008, 03:45 PM
Lineup
Centerfielder
Shortstop
Respect
Free Swinger
OBP
OBP
OBP
OBP

Votto, Encarnacion, and Ross/Bako have good OB percentages? First I've heard of it. Sure, Dunn and Phillips should be flip-flopped, but you might as well throw the names of the other hitters into a hat and draw at random. This team is not a team of good hitters.

RedsManRick
07-30-2008, 03:51 PM
Votto, Encarnacion, and Ross/Bako have good OB percentages? First I've heard of it. Sure, Dunn and Phillips should be flip-flopped, but you might as well throw the names of the other hitters into a hat and draw at random. This team is not a team of good hitters.



Batting #1 .263 .315 .384 .699
Batting #2 .264 .316 .371 .687
Batting #3 .235 .339 .394 .733
Batting #4 .264 .326 .443 .770
Batting #5 .259 .388 .527 .915
Batting #6 .266 .336 .481 .818
Batting #7 .283 .349 .454 .803
Batting #8 .221 .316 .357 .673

Phillips and his .323 OBP batting cleanup is the obvious problem, I won' disagree with you there.

One of the unspoken issues has been Jeff Keppinger (.329) and Jay Bruce (.318). The lineup could benefit significantly by moving EE or Votto to the 2 spot, if not up to 1st and 2nd.

Falls City Beer
07-30-2008, 03:54 PM
Batting #1 .263 .315 .384 .699
Batting #2 .264 .316 .371 .687
Batting #3 .235 .339 .394 .733
Batting #4 .264 .326 .443 .770
Batting #5 .259 .388 .527 .915
Batting #6 .266 .336 .481 .818
Batting #7 .283 .349 .454 .803
Batting #8 .221 .316 .357 .673

The argument was OBP. Outside of slot #5, the situation is awful everywhere else. #7 is *passable*, but not such that I say--wow, what was he thinking?

RedsManRick
07-30-2008, 03:56 PM
The argument was OBP. Outside of slot #5, the situation is awful everywhere else. #7 is *passable*, but not such that I say--wow, what was he thinking?

There are degrees of horrible. I think lumping in a .315 and .316 with a .336 is suspect. Neither are good, no doubt. But having bad options is no excuse for making poor use of the ones you've got.

Spring~Fields
07-30-2008, 03:57 PM
Votto, Encarnacion, and Ross/Bako have good OB percentages? First I've heard of it. Sure, Dunn and Phillips should be flip-flopped, but you might as well throw the names of the other hitters into a hat and draw at random. This team is not a team of good hitters.

Are you talking about the small sample of just recently? There was a time when some were doing well, as apathy set in, not so well.

Break it down by the month for us. ;)

I wasn’t going to bring up Patterson and Bako

OBP

Then
April
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/teams/batting?team=cin&season=2008&seasonType=2&split=40&cat=onBasePct&order=true&type=reg
May
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/teams/batting?team=cin&season=2008&seasonType=2&split=41&cat=onBasePct&order=true&type=reg
June
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/teams/batting?team=cin&season=2008&seasonType=2&split=42&cat=onBasePct&order=true&type=reg

Now
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/teams/batting?team=cin&cat=onBasePct&season=2008&split=0&seasonType=2&type=reg

Falls City Beer
07-30-2008, 04:02 PM
There are degrees of horrible. I think lumping in a .315 and .316 with a .336 is suspect. Neither are good, no doubt. But having bad options is no excuse for making poor use of the ones you've got.

I think it's missing the forest for the trees. Francona kept a severely struggling Pedroia in the 2 spot for a LOOOONG time this season, drawing rancor from fans. Well, his faith has been rewarded now that he's OPSing .810 or so, when earlier in the year he was around .650. It could be argued that with Bruce, he wants to build his confidence and challenge him at the top, and give Keppinger a chance to regain some stability after his injury--both hitters have minor league numbers that say both should be getting OB at a very solid clip. Right now, they're not.

You can make an easy case for Patterson's ineptness, but now that he's basically dropped Patterson from that slot, folks just want to rail on the next option, because it was Dusty who made the choice. If it were Francona or Mackanin making a similar decision, he'd be lauded for his patience. But since it's Dusty, it's ineptitude.

Sometimes it's Dusty, but sometimes---sometimes--players just don't play to expectations.

Spring~Fields
07-30-2008, 04:10 PM
I think it's missing the forest for the trees. Francona kept a severely struggling Pedroia in the 2 spot for a LOOOONG time this season, drawing rancor from fans. Well, his faith has been rewarded now that he's OPSing .810 or so, when earlier in the year he was around .650. It could be argued that with Bruce, he wants to build his confidence and challenge him at the top, and give Keppinger a chance to regain some stability after his injury--both hitters have minor league numbers that say both should be getting OB at a very solid clip. Right now, they're not.

You can make an easy case for Patterson's ineptness, but now that he's basically dropped Patterson from that slot, folks just want to rail on the next option, because it was Dusty who made the choice. If it were Francona or Mackanin making a similar decision, he'd be lauded for his patience. But since it's Dusty, it's ineptitude.

Sometimes it's Dusty, but sometimes---sometimes--players just don't play to expectations.

I just can't grasp the concept of batting the centerfielder #1 and shortstop #2 regardless of their hitting skills and past history.

RedsManRick
07-30-2008, 04:12 PM
I think it's missing the forest for the trees. Francona kept a severely struggling Pedroia in the 2 spot for a LOOOONG time this season, drawing rancor from fans. Well, his faith has been rewarded now that he's OPSing .810 or so, when earlier in the year he was around .650. It could be argued that with Bruce, he wants to build his confidence and challenge him at the top, and give Keppinger a chance to regain some stability after his injury--both hitters have minor league numbers that say both should be getting OB at a very solid clip. Right now, they're not.

You can make an easy case for Patterson's ineptness, but now that he's basically dropped Patterson from that slot, folks just want to rail on the next option, because it was Dusty who made the choice. If it were Francona or Mackanin making a similar decision, he'd be lauded for his patience. But since it's Dusty, it's ineptitude.

Sometimes it's Dusty, but sometimes---sometimes--players just don't play to expectations.

You're talking like I place all the blame on Dusty. I don't. I agree that his options are crap. I don't fault Dusty for Keppinger or Bruce. In fact, I'd probably keep Keppinger in the leadoff spot myself.

Yet Patterson led off as recently as last night. I don't think that ship has sailed in the least. When he plays, he tends to lead-off. That he's been sitting behind Bruce is hardly to Dusty's credit. And that Bruce's OBP has gone in the tank despite destroying AAA and a hot start is not something for which I'll fault Dusty.

But patience is something you show when there's a reasonable expectation of time to bear out your confidence. Pedroia had a .380 OBP last year. Kudos to Francona for basing his decision on what's likely to happen in the future rather than just what's happened in the recent past. I have no problem with sticking with a guy who's struggling but should bounce back moving forward.

But Patterson has a career OBP under .300 and Phillips a career OBP of .310 (and just .324 and .331 the past two years). This isn't an issue of waiting for them to regress to the mean and sticking with them through tough times. It's either false hope that they're somebody they're not and will soon turn the corner or it's knowing who they are and using them as he has anyways.

Falls City Beer
07-30-2008, 04:13 PM
I just can't grasp the concept of batting the centerfielder #1 and shortstop #2 regardless of their hitting skills and past history.

I think you've made a hasty generalization about Dusty's attitude toward the relationship between field position and batting order. Again, some see an inkblot, while others see what they want to see.

37red
07-30-2008, 04:31 PM
Wolfboy....... yes. But of course the majority of good balls to hit ARE in the strike zone. But that doesn't mean you should ignore pitches that work for you.

Spring~Fields
07-30-2008, 04:46 PM
I think you've made a hasty generalization about Dusty's attitude toward the relationship between field position and batting order. Again, some see an inkblot, while others see what they want to see.


Votto, Encarnacion, and Ross/Bako have good OB percentages? First I've heard of it. Sure, Dunn and Phillips should be flip-flopped, but you might as well throw the names of the other hitters into a hat and draw at random.

I can't make any generalizations if I go simply by a copy and paste of the AB per batting position and the stats that are recorded for that situation and the choice that was made for that by Dusty. They are what they are.

#1
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/teams/batting?team=cin&season=2008&seasonType=2&split=109&cat=atBats&order=true&type=reg

#2
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/teams/batting?team=cin&season=2008&seasonType=2&split=110&cat=atBats&order=true&type=reg


#3
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/teams/batting?team=cin&season=2008&seasonType=2&split=111&cat=atBats&order=true&type=reg

#4
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/teams/batting?team=cin&season=2008&seasonType=2&split=112&cat=atBats&order=true&type=reg

#5
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/teams/batting?team=cin&season=2008&seasonType=2&split=113&cat=atBats&order=true&type=reg

#6
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/teams/batting?team=cin&season=2008&seasonType=2&split=114&cat=atBats&order=true&type=reg

#7
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/teams/batting?team=cin&season=2008&seasonType=2&split=115&cat=atBats&order=true&type=reg

#8
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/teams/batting?team=cin&season=2008&seasonType=2&split=116&cat=atBats&order=true&type=reg


April, May, June, pre-all star before it became a lost cause.
Patterson
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/splits?playerId=4239
Keppinger
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/splits?playerId=6076
Griffey
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/splits?playerId=2148
Phillips
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/splits?playerId=5031
Dunn
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/splits?playerId=4808
Encarncion
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/splits?playerId=5904
Votto
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/splits?playerId=28670
Bako
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/splits?playerId=3829

The only input that I would have is a question:

The players change, positive and negative streaks change, it changes per left handed or right handed pitcher, it changes by the week and by the month.

Shouldn’t the one making out the lineups adjust throughout the season accordingly ?

Lineup
Centerfielder
Shortstop
Respect
Free Swinger
OBP
OBP
OBP
OBP