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OnBaseMachine
07-31-2008, 08:32 PM
After reading some quotes from Bob Castellini and Walt Jocketty, my guess is Adam Dunn will be signed to a long term contract after the season. Call me an optimist but I think he's going to stick around. Castellini loves the guy and Jocketty is a smart guy, he knows how important Dunn is to this team. Rumors today were that Jocketty was asking for three premium prospects in return for Dunn. That tells me how much Jocketty values Dunner. And why not? You can pencil him in for a 160 games, .380+ OBP, 40+ homeruns, 100+ walks, and 100+ RBI just about every year. Again, I could be wrong but I'm feeling pretty confident right now that Dunn will be back next year.

Degenerate39
07-31-2008, 08:33 PM
Works for me!

Cyclone792
07-31-2008, 08:37 PM
I'm with ya, OBM. I have to think that if the Reds had plans to let Dunn walk that they would have just taken the best offer they could get and would have sent him on his way today.

We're hearing a lot about "trying to win as many games as we can," and while a good deal of that is PR speak, we also know that letting Dunn walk for two compensation picks in next year's draft isn't going to do anything to directly help this team in 2009. Additionally, I believe Dunn is approaching pure Moneyball Player status in that there seems to be quite a few teams undervaluing him in the market. And that's fine with me, because that would just increase the chances of the Reds signing him to a very nice deal that doesn't necessarily hinder the team financially all that much.

Lastly, if they offered to toss in a no-trade to Dunn in a long-term deal, I have to believe they could land him for four years at a very reasonable salary. It seems to me Dunn values loyalty and security of staying in one place; he hates trade rumors and doesn't want to be traded and the no-trade would essentially free him of having to deal with that each July.

NC Reds
07-31-2008, 09:05 PM
Works for me as well. This team would be borderline unwatchable without Dunn.

I think Votto and Bruce will improve immensely this offseason. Dunn's return would provide them some needed cover as they improve.

Patrick Bateman
07-31-2008, 09:17 PM
I agree. I assume that the Reds had better theoretical offers than that of the draft pick compensation received if they lost Dunn to free agency. Thus, they must at the very least be very open to resigning Dunn long term, otherwise they would have accepted the better package of prospects. Perhaps Dunn's demands will be too high, but it's clear to me that the front office values Dunn's contributions highly, and I expect that a competitve offer will be made. With that said, I think Dunn wants to stay in Cincy and if said competitve offer is made, perhaps with the security Cyclone suggests that Dunn will be happy to sign and bypass the potential bidding war in free agency. If Jocketty weren't comfortable shelling out the big bucks for Dunn, he would have been traded.

Spring~Fields
07-31-2008, 09:24 PM
After reading some quotes from Bob Castellini and Walt Jocketty, my guess is Adam Dunn will be signed to a long term contract after the season. Call me an optimist but I think he's going to stick around. Castellini loves the guy and Jocketty is a smart guy, he knows how important Dunn is to this team. Rumors today were that Jocketty was asking for three premium prospects in return for Dunn. That tells me how much Jocketty values Dunner. And why not? You can pencil him in for a 160 games, .380+ OBP, 40+ homeruns, 100+ walks, and 100+ RBI just about every year. Again, I could be wrong but I'm feeling pretty confident right now that Dunn will be back next year.

I don’t think that his comment here regarding the Griffey trade, bodes well for the Reds being able to resign him.


But he's going to place where they're in first place. He probably feels likes he's a lot more wanted over there.

"I knew this year that probably one of us would be gone, if not both. It's not something out of the blue. This is a business. He's going to a good place."

http://news.cincinnati.com/apps/pbcs.dll/section?category=blog07&plckController=Blog&plckScript=blogScript&plckElementId=blogDest&plckBlogPage=BlogViewPost&plckPostId=Blog%3ae57bcc87-152a-4f72-96fb-cc08b1f396efPost%3a32a676f3-06d4-47f2-baf0-dc7db82db692&sid=sitelife.cincinnati.com

I believe that his agent will direct him toward the better offers and to where his client has a chance to shine, with a winning team.

I believe that he will be wanting to go to a team that has a good chance to win.

Kc61
07-31-2008, 09:44 PM
I believe that his agent will direct him toward the better offers and to where his client has a chance to shine, with a winning team.

I believe that he will be wanting to go to a team that has a good chance to win.

This seems right to me. I really don't understand what happened with Dunn today, must have been a lack of good offers, but now I expect him to leave this winter with the Reds getting draft choices. I expected a trade so the Reds could get some mature prospects back. Now, odds are, they'll get draft picks.

Most free agents take the best offer. I think Dunn will take the best offer. If it is in his home state of Texas, or on a big market winner, or whatever, these are possible benefits. But bottom line, this is Dunn's chance to cash in on his success and he will undoubtedly do so.

It is possible that the Reds and Dunn have a deal in place only to be formalized after the season. But if not, I don't see why he should just stay. He hates trade rumors? He's loyal and likes stability? These are not reasons for him to forego his payday.

Forget what the Reds and the fans want. Having worked his whole career for the right to offer his services to the highest bidder in the open market, why should Dunn just agree to stay?

Blitz Dorsey
07-31-2008, 10:21 PM
Pretty much looks right to me. In fact, I heard Jocketty slip a bit on SportsTalk tonight with Daugherty. He said how trading Griffey allows the Reds to take a look at their "outfield for next year." He then quickly corrected himself and said "Well, if we re-sign Dunn." But if you heard the interview, it sounded like he was being matter-of-fact about signing Dunn.

Now, if Adam all of a sudden wants $20 million after his latest power surge, forget about it. But I am still hoping something can be done for $16 mil a year. I would be shocked at this point if Dunn isn't signed to a LTC. We might have to sweat it out, but I think he will be back. I don't think older guys like Jocketty and Castellini are going to be OK with getting draft picks for Dunn. They want to win now. And now means 2009 and 2010.

VR
07-31-2008, 10:29 PM
I think Griff's absence will benefit AD in the long run.

jojo
07-31-2008, 10:47 PM
I'm with ya, OBM. I have to think that if the Reds had plans to let Dunn walk that they would have just taken the best offer they could get and would have sent him on his way today.

Unless their best offer wasn't as compelling as the 2 picks they're going to get if he rejects arbitration.

KronoRed
07-31-2008, 10:52 PM
Unless their best offer wasn't as compelling as the 2 picks they're going to get if he rejects arbitration.

Maybe, but Walt strikes me as a guy who would prefer names and bodies now then 2 complete unknowns 10 months from now.

jojo
07-31-2008, 10:56 PM
Maybe, but Walt strikes me as a guy who would prefer names and bodies now then 2 complete unknowns 10 months from now.

Then cloudy days for the Reds...... :cool:

MartyFan
07-31-2008, 11:22 PM
I think Griff's absence will benefit AD in the long run.

I couldn't agree more...I don't think that Junior was bad for Dunn in the same way Kearns was...I think that with Junior here, Dunn could always stand in the background...I think Junior being gone helps him grow up and helps him realize he is the veteran presence on this team.

Cyclone792
07-31-2008, 11:32 PM
Unless their best offer wasn't as compelling as the 2 picks they're going to get if he rejects arbitration.

Tampa Bay was looking for a big bat by going after Bay, then Dunn. They came up empty-handed in both, though it doesn't sound like for lack of trying. I have to believe that whatever it is they were offering was a little bit better than the two picks the Reds will get via compensation.

coachw513
07-31-2008, 11:42 PM
Under the assumption that truly Dunn has not been spoken to about the possibility of signing a LT extension, the lack of saavy by the Reds in this entire process is outrageous...we've got 1 of 3 situations...

1. The Reds really wanted to trade him, but based on the offers available came to the conclusion that 2 draft picks was a better alternative...
2. The Reds really are settled on locking him up long-term...
3. The Reds have no clue about what they want/need to do with the "Dunn Conundrum"

Well if it's #1, my team is being run by folks who are ignorant as to the value Dunn brings TO OUR TEAM...IMO, I think Castellini is in this camp...doesn't "get" Dunn, listens to the very vocal ignorant camp around this franchise that refuses to accept the most logical of premises regarding the deep offensive impact Dunn has on the game (and I speak to this because my greatest area of growth in terms of understanding the game more objectively has led me to see Dunn as a necessary component of the Reds vision for a winning team).

However, this is more encouraging than #2, which indicates my team has no clue that it might matter to Dunn to actually feel wanted...we could have spent this season quietly, privately not only negotiating with Dunn, but massaging the big guy's esteem and helping him to feel a major part of a franchise vision and yet he clearly is dangling in the wind (and based on comments he's made on the trade deadlines, he HATES dealing with uncertainty like this)...even if the numbers still needed to be worked out, you don't think the Reds would have put themselves in a better negotiation if Dunn actually felt communicated with and appreciated more demonstratively by upper management...geez, I'm not asking Jock to put the offers in the paper, but it's not a stretch for me to consider that I don't think it's just going to be a money decision for Dunn and that actually feeling valued by those running this franchise would matter to him...the deafening silence in this area speaks, no...shouts otherwise...

Of course maybe we're selecting box #3, which quite honestly is the scariest of propositions...consider having an organizational plan where you have NO FREAKING CLUE what you are going to do with your most discernable baseball asset...this paralysis of decision-making either made it impossible to stimulate the trade market or is driving up the cost to resign him since a deal to extend him could have been done at any time this spring/summer...instead as he has a tremendous July (and hopefully the rest of the season based on continued BABIP improvement to the norm) the price tag continues to rise...

And of course, if you DO believe we don't know what we want to do, can you really feel good about the same group of decision makers drafting the 2 replacement players we would receive for compensation???...no, me neither...

I actually have not yet found the depth of despair of a fan to believe this team capable of being so stupid not to be able to work out a 4/65 type deal and to let him walk...

But the nights still early :confused:

Matt700wlw
07-31-2008, 11:58 PM
I think it will be up to Dunn....he may not want to come back - but if he walks it won't be because the Reds didn't offer him something...even if it's only arbitration

red-in-la
08-01-2008, 12:03 AM
I expect the Reds to sign Dunn long before the end of the season......they will NOT attempt to compete with the open market.

I also agree with the logic that they intend to re-sign him or they would have just taken whatever the best offer was.

OTOH, if they get some team's first round draft choice for Dunn as compensation, then it could turn out to be the better deal to just let Dunn walk.

If it comes to the point of offering Dunn arbitration, the Reds will NOT offer it.....they would be killed in arbitration.....what would they offer? What would Dunn's offer be? I would expect his to be near 20 mill and the Reds would be faced with actually offering him a large raise to keep from getting hit with Dunn's number.

Arbitration would leave the Reds, best case scenario, lookingat Dunn for one more year at probably 16 to 18 mill....ouch!

KoryMac5
08-01-2008, 12:04 AM
I hate to burst the bubble, but Dunn will not be a Red next year. There is no one on this team that Dunn has ties to, Kearns his best friend was traded now Jr. goes to the pale hose. I would imagine he wants to start fresh with a new team who offers him a nice multi year deal. I don't think Dunn was ever in the FO's long term plans.

WVRedsFan
08-01-2008, 12:10 AM
I hate to burst the bubble, but Dunn will not be a Red next year. There is no one on this team that Dunn has ties to, Kearns his best friend was traded now Jr. goes to the pale hose. I would imagine he wants to start fresh with a new team who offers him a nice multi year deal. I don't think Dunn was ever in the FO's long term plans.
As much as I want him to be signed to a long term deal to stay in Cincinnati, I think you may have hit on something. I have long believed that he wants to stay with the Reds, but it will depend on what offers are out there and that's the rub.

I think the scenario goes like this. The Reds will not offer him a LT deal and submit him to arbitration. In the meantime, the offers will come in. It will all depend on what the offers are. If we are to believe many, including Lance in his blog today, the offers won't be much. He may decide to take arbitration and stay. Then again, some owner may get a wild hair and offer the moon over the winter and Dunn takes it.

Minus an offer from the Reds, this is the way it will be. It will be a crap shoot.

fearofpopvol1
08-01-2008, 12:13 AM
I think it may happen too. I actually do think Dunn wants to stay in Cincinnati because of the nucleus of young talent he sees. He's openly stated he's open to the idea of an extension.

Cedric
08-01-2008, 12:21 AM
I hate to burst the bubble, but Dunn will not be a Red next year. There is no one on this team that Dunn has ties to, Kearns his best friend was traded now Jr. goes to the pale hose. I would imagine he wants to start fresh with a new team who offers him a nice multi year deal. I don't think Dunn was ever in the FO's long term plans.

I think you are ignoring a big factor. Everything I have read about Adam Dunn says he is someone that hates change. He seems very comftorable in Cincinnati. I think people on this site sometimes don't realize the pull that playing for only one team for ten years has. Adam Dunn has grown up in this organization and I promise you he has many, many ties to this area. Unless he gets absolutely blown away with another offer he might well end up here.

Saying he "will not be a Red next year" is pretty drastic considering none of us know how much he values comfort and loyalty. I'm not going to get into the debate about how much Adam Dunn cares about winning the World Series. I know he cares. I just believe he values other things a little more. I actually appreciate that in an athlete and I find it refreshing. Does anyone really think Adam Dunn is going to rush to play in Anaheim, LA, or Oakland? I don't see him playing anywhere else but Houston, Arlington, or someplace like that.

Lets hope I'm right and he stays here :)

WVPacman
08-01-2008, 12:39 AM
After reading some quotes from Bob Castellini and Walt Jocketty, my guess is Adam Dunn will be signed to a long term contract after the season. Call me an optimist but I think he's going to stick around. Castellini loves the guy and Jocketty is a smart guy, he knows how important Dunn is to this team. Rumors today were that Jocketty was asking for three premium prospects in return for Dunn. That tells me how much Jocketty values Dunner. And why not? You can pencil him in for a 160 games, .380+ OBP, 40+ homeruns, 100+ walks, and 100+ RBI just about every year. Again, I could be wrong but I'm feeling pretty confident right now that Dunn will be back next year.


OBM,I agree with everything you have written and I think it would be a big mistake not to resign him.You can't replace 40+hr and 100+rbi every year and to let him walk would be a huge mistake.I think Dunner,likes what this team has on the roster with the young players and it could be a very promiseing future for the Reds and their team.So lets keep Dunner too!!!!:beerme:

OnBaseMachine
08-01-2008, 01:27 AM
I hate to burst the bubble, but Dunn will not be a Red next year. There is no one on this team that Dunn has ties to, Kearns his best friend was traded now Jr. goes to the pale hose. I would imagine he wants to start fresh with a new team who offers him a nice multi year deal. I don't think Dunn was ever in the FO's long term plans.

I highly doubt that plays a factor in Dunn's decision. He said today that the departure of Griffey will not affect his decision on wanting to return. But anyway, it's not like Griffey and Kearns were Dunn's only buddies on the team. He's also pretty close to Jay Bruce. IIRC those two have been working out together in the offseason for a couple years now.

jojo
08-01-2008, 07:53 AM
A fearless prediction: money/years will be 97.243% of the deciding factor

princeton
08-01-2008, 08:21 AM
it's logical for all concerned to finally figure out his value by making him a free agent. there's so much disparity over what people think that he's worth that the Reds could be overbidding by a lot.

that said, I think that the Reds either sign him now (a no-trade clause works for me; haven't been able to trade him for years anyway), or he's a Yankee in 2009.

given Jocketty's history, I think that the Reds WILL sign him before he becomes a FA

bucksfan2
08-01-2008, 08:50 AM
A fearless prediction: money/years will be 97.243% of the deciding factor

You don't say.

I think its a little more complicated than that. Here is the way I see it.

-Most desired spot for Dunn to play would be in Texas with either the Rangers or the Astros. Both teams don't seem to have a fit for Dunn.

-How well would Dunn translate to the big market? Is there are demand for Dunn in the big cities? I wouldn't think Boston, NYY, NYM, LAA, or LAD would see room for Dunn. I also don't think the up and coming teams such as Florida or Tampa would want Dunn as well.

-Where does that leave Dunn? If the Royals went out and overbid the Reds by a few million would Dunn take it?

-I think what Jocketty is trying to measure is the free agent market for Dunn. It would be foolish to sign Dunn now if his FA value is going to be less in a month or so.

If I am the Reds I look at signing Dunn to a 4 year deal. I tack on a few more dollars if he agrees to play 1b. 4years/~$15m-$17m would be what I explore.

redsmetz
08-01-2008, 09:07 AM
I couldn't agree more...I don't think that Junior was bad for Dunn in the same way Kearns was...I think that with Junior here, Dunn could always stand in the background...I think Junior being gone helps him grow up and helps him realize he is the veteran presence on this team.

I agree. You articulated the situation far better than I was able to. I think Dunn has his head on a lot straighter than folks give him credit for (including other GM's). He won't be 29 until November and he will have eight seasons behind him. I think he can step up quite a lot and, frankly, the Reds really need that.

Another point, if an extension is signed, I don't think the Reds wait until the end of the season to do it. For all Jocketty's protests that he doesn't do contracts during the season, with all three of his big offensive pick-ups (McGwire, Rolen and Edmonds), he signed them to new contracts during the seasons they were acquired. Rolen and McGwire both signed extensions in September of the year they came to the Cards and Edmonds signed a six year deal in May after being traded in February. If they're going to reach an agreement, they need to do it before this contract expires. I think it's too risky to go head to head in the open market.

flyer85
08-01-2008, 09:09 AM
I wouldn't mind it but at this point there is no evidence the Reds are interested. DUnn said yesterday there has NEVER been any contact between his representatives and the Reds about an extension. To this point he has been waiting for an offer that has never came.

redsmetz
08-01-2008, 09:14 AM
I think the scenario goes like this. The Reds will not offer him a LT deal and submit him to arbitration. In the meantime, the offers will come in. It will all depend on what the offers are. If we are to believe many, including Lance in his blog today, the offers won't be much. He may decide to take arbitration and stay. Then again, some owner may get a wild hair and offer the moon over the winter and Dunn takes it.


While I think some GM's don't appreciate the value Dunn would bring, I think there are plenty that would understand he brings a lot to the table. I think it's foolish to assume that there will not be any big offers. There will be a number of clubs who will pony up (and all it really takes is two to move his price tag up). I would bet it will be a good handful. Dunn brings a lot to the table and it's wishful thinking (and that's putting it kindly) to think he'll test the waters and come back to us with his tail hanging between his legs. It's not going to happen.

bucksfan2
08-01-2008, 09:17 AM
While I think some GM's don't appreciate the value Dunn would bring, I think there are plenty that would understand he brings a lot to the table. I think it's foolish to assume that there will not be any big offers. There will be a number of clubs who will pony up (and all it really takes is two to move his price tag up). I would bet it will be a good handful. Dunn brings a lot to the table and it's wishful thinking (and that's putting it kindly) to think he'll test the waters and come back to us with his tail hanging between his legs. It's not going to happen.

Just out of curiosity who would be the clubs to pony up?

princeton
08-01-2008, 09:35 AM
I don't think that Junior was bad for Dunn in the same way Kearns was...

you know, Kearns also strikes me as a Walt Jocketty type of pickup...

Austin will clear waivers at least to the Reds' claiming position (I figure that Austin completely clears though-- nobody wants to pay him in 2009)


Dunn/Bruce/Kearns OF in 2009? wouldn't that be a kick.

Kc61
08-01-2008, 09:40 AM
Just out of curiosity who would be the clubs to pony up?

A team that loses this post-season due to a lack of left handed hitting.

A team that loses out on Manny Ramirez or whatever power hitter is a free agent this year.

A team that has a modern thinking GM that isn't worried about batting average.

A team that loses a free agent or makes a trade leaving a void in its lineup.

If Dunn has his BA over .250 by season's end, for the second straight year, that could be a factor.

It will be dollars and cents. If the Reds make a pre-emptive offer they could prevent Dunn from going free agent. But if not, if they simply wait and "play the market" who knows what will happen.

All the folks who think Dunn will stay because of comfort level and all that -- it would make him a highly unusual player. There will be bids. And he will likely take the best one.

It could be that interest will be light but the market will make the decision, not the hopes of fans like us.

redsmetz
08-01-2008, 09:47 AM
You don't say.

I think its a little more complicated than that. Here is the way I see it.

-Most desired spot for Dunn to play would be in Texas with either the Rangers or the Astros. Both teams don't seem to have a fit for Dunn.

-How well would Dunn translate to the big market? Is there are demand for Dunn in the big cities? I wouldn't think Boston, NYY, NYM, LAA, or LAD would see room for Dunn. I also don't think the up and coming teams such as Florida or Tampa would want Dunn as well.

-Where does that leave Dunn? If the Royals went out and overbid the Reds by a few million would Dunn take it?

-I think what Jocketty is trying to measure is the free agent market for Dunn. It would be foolish to sign Dunn now if his FA value is going to be less in a month or so.

If I am the Reds I look at signing Dunn to a 4 year deal. I tack on a few more dollars if he agrees to play 1b. 4years/~$15m-$17m would be what I explore.

As I said in my other posts, I think there are a good handful of teams that would be interested in Dunn before you even get down to the Royals or Pirates, etc.

Chicago Cubs: I'm not familiar enough with Fukodome and Soriano to know if they could swing over to CF when Edmonds' contract expiring, but the residents of Wrigleyville would probably want to update their insurance for fly balls going through their windows.

St. Louis Again, I'm not familiar with Skip Schumaker, but he looks like a light hitting outfielder. I'd even guess the Cards could be the biggest suitor for Dunn if he goes on the open market. And St. Louis would be a great town to play in. Probably the best baseball town in the ML's, IMO.

Detroit I'm not sure this is a good fit, but I could see the Tigers looking for another big bat.

San Francisco I can't say Dunn might choose them, but there is not one Giant who has double digits in home runs. There is a huge need to replace Barry Bonds bat. I could see them making a gigantic move to sign Adam Dunn(pun intended).

Philadelpha They've got Pat Burrell in LF now, but he's also in his walk year. Dunn is three years younger and will cost about the same as Burrell. They could well make a decision like this. Although they may also feel they could save by extending Burrell, but if they don't there's no reason they couldn't be a player for Adam Dunn.

Atlanta Their leading LF is 24, but has been fairly light hitting. Not to mention they no longer have Teixiera at first, so they may want Dunn ultimately there. We know how Adam feels about that, but the money could talk.

New York Mets I'm not sure why you dismiss them out of hand, but they have played 11 different guys in LF, with Fernando Tatis getting the most playing time out there. I would think the Mets would be all over Adam Dunn.

Now I could be wrong about some of these, but that's seven teams who I think could be plausible suitors (to varying degrees) for Adam Dunn who are not basement dwellers. And a number of them have far deeper pockets than the Reds do. Again, I think it would be foolish to think the market will be depressed for Adam Dunn. That would be a mistake.

kaldaniels
08-01-2008, 09:47 AM
You don't say.

I think its a little more complicated than that. Here is the way I see it.

-Most desired spot for Dunn to play would be in Texas with either the Rangers or the Astros. Both teams don't seem to have a fit for Dunn.

-How well would Dunn translate to the big market? Is there are demand for Dunn in the big cities? I wouldn't think Boston, NYY, NYM, LAA, or LAD would see room for Dunn. I also don't think the up and coming teams such as Florida or Tampa would want Dunn as well.

-Where does that leave Dunn? If the Royals went out and overbid the Reds by a few million would Dunn take it?

-I think what Jocketty is trying to measure is the free agent market for Dunn. It would be foolish to sign Dunn now if his FA value is going to be less in a month or so.

If I am the Reds I look at signing Dunn to a 4 year deal. I tack on a few more dollars if he agrees to play 1b. 4years/~$15m-$17m would be what I explore.

I really think anything less than 4 years/60 million and Dunn and his agent will not think the Reds are being serious. Personally, to get the deal done (hopefully) I'd offer 4 years/65 million with a generous team option for the fifth year. I think that is fair for both sides.

princeton
08-01-2008, 09:50 AM
NY radio host this morning said Yankees have $80mill in expiring contracts -- not that THAT even matters.

is the new Yankee stadium supposed to be lefty-friendly?

flyer85
08-01-2008, 09:52 AM
is the new Yankee stadium supposed to be lefty-friendly?does it really matter, most of the HRs Dunn hits go out of any park.

redsmetz
08-01-2008, 10:04 AM
NY radio host this morning said Yankees have $80mill in expiring contracts -- not that THAT even matters.

is the new Yankee stadium supposed to be lefty-friendly?

Flyer85 correctly answered your stadium question, but I hadn't put the Yankees on the list, but I see Abreu's contract is up. If Damon can swing over to right (and I don't know the answer to that), then add the Yankees to my list and that's eight teams who might have serious interest in Dunn.

If we want him, we need to sign him during the season, not when we're competing with the market. We don't get him there. And he won't agree to arbitration. He's not going to want a one year deal. I think folks are right that he prefers stability and not all the distractions that come with trade deadlines and contracts expiring.

jojo
08-01-2008, 10:24 AM
You don't say.

I think its a little more complicated than that. Here is the way I see it.

-Most desired spot for Dunn to play would be in Texas with either the Rangers or the Astros. Both teams don't seem to have a fit for Dunn.

-How well would Dunn translate to the big market? Is there are demand for Dunn in the big cities? I wouldn't think Boston, NYY, NYM, LAA, or LAD would see room for Dunn. I also don't think the up and coming teams such as Florida or Tampa would want Dunn as well.

-Where does that leave Dunn? If the Royals went out and overbid the Reds by a few million would Dunn take it?

-I think what Jocketty is trying to measure is the free agent market for Dunn. It would be foolish to sign Dunn now if his FA value is going to be less in a month or so.

If I am the Reds I look at signing Dunn to a 4 year deal. I tack on a few more dollars if he agrees to play 1b. 4years/~$15m-$17m would be what I explore.

Seattle needs a left-handed run producer and they have money to spend. It only takes two.....

westofyou
08-01-2008, 10:45 AM
NY radio host this morning said Yankees have $80mill in expiring contracts -- not that THAT even matters.

is the new Yankee stadium supposed to be lefty-friendly?

The new park is designed with the old stadiums dimensions.

Jpup
08-01-2008, 10:47 AM
Flyer85 correctly answered your stadium question, but I hadn't put the Yankees on the list, but I see Abreu's contract is up. If Damon can swing over to right (and I don't know the answer to that), then add the Yankees to my list and that's eight teams who might have serious interest in Dunn.

If we want him, we need to sign him during the season, not when we're competing with the market. We don't get him there. And he won't agree to arbitration. He's not going to want a one year deal. I think folks are right that he prefers stability and not all the distractions that come with trade deadlines and contracts expiring.

IMO, Damon is not likely to be a Yankee next season. They don't even like him in left and I doubt he will ever get a chance to play right field. Adam Dunn would be a perfect fit for the Bombers.

I have to think that Bob and Walt have already talked to Adam about returning. I can't wait to see how he handles Jr. being traded. Everyone thought Dunn would just quit when Austin was traded to Washington, he didn't, he just kept mashing.

redsmetz
08-01-2008, 11:19 AM
Seattle needs a left-handed run producer and they have money to spend. It only takes two.....

Yes, I'd agree with that two - now we have almost ten legitimate clubs who could have some interest. We can't afford Free Agent Adam Dunn's price - if we want his services, we need to sign him before the season ends. And Jocketty's history has shown he's willing to do that with his big guys.

REDREAD
08-01-2008, 11:26 AM
I'm with ya, OBM. I have to think that if the Reds had plans to let Dunn walk that they would have just taken the best offer they could get and would have sent him on his way today.
.

I am not trying to be a downer, but I don't think we can conclude that.

Walt drives a tough bargain, he does not settle for the best available. He didn't dump Ross, Weathers and Affedlt for the sake of getting scraps either.

I think the Reds are open to signing to Dunn under the right terms, but it's far from a sure thing.

I also think that giving the wrong contract to Dunn could cripple this club far more than Jr's contract did. I think Walt agrees.

I give it a 10% chance of Dunn returning. A lot of that is based on the fact that I think Dunn doesn't want to come back and sit through another rebuilding while listening to the media dump on him. We can't reasonably expect Dunn to give the Reds a sweetheart deal either.

It could be that Dunn has already told the Reds he wants to leave, but the Reds are being diplomatic about it by saying "No talks during the season".

Jpup
08-01-2008, 11:29 AM
I am not trying to be a downer, but I don't think we can conclude that.

Walt drives a tough bargain, he does not settle for the best available. He didn't dump Ross, Weathers and Affedlt for the sake of getting scraps either.

I think the Reds are open to signing to Dunn under the right terms, but it's far from a sure thing.

I also think that giving the wrong contract to Dunn could cripple this club far more than Jr's contract did. I think Walt agrees.

I give it a 10% chance of Dunn returning. A lot of that is based on the fact that I think Dunn doesn't want to come back and sit through another rebuilding while listening to the media dump on him. We can't reasonably expect Dunn to give the Reds a sweetheart deal either.

It could be that Dunn has already told the Reds he wants to leave, but the Reds are being diplomatic about it by saying "No talks during the season".

What are you basing your opinion of 10% on? I see no reason why Adam wouldn't want to play in the only place he has ever known. This team could win the pennant next year if they are wise this off season.

BuckeyeRedleg
08-01-2008, 11:51 AM
Under the assumption that truly Dunn has not been spoken to about the possibility of signing a LT extension, the lack of saavy by the Reds in this entire process is outrageous...we've got 1 of 3 situations...

1. The Reds really wanted to trade him, but based on the offers available came to the conclusion that 2 draft picks was a better alternative...
2. The Reds really are settled on locking him up long-term...
3. The Reds have no clue about what they want/need to do with the "Dunn Conundrum"

Well if it's #1, my team is being run by folks who are ignorant as to the value Dunn brings TO OUR TEAM...IMO, I think Castellini is in this camp...doesn't "get" Dunn, listens to the very vocal ignorant camp around this franchise that refuses to accept the most logical of premises regarding the deep offensive impact Dunn has on the game (and I speak to this because my greatest area of growth in terms of understanding the game more objectively has led me to see Dunn as a necessary component of the Reds vision for a winning team).

However, this is more encouraging than #2, which indicates my team has no clue that it might matter to Dunn to actually feel wanted...we could have spent this season quietly, privately not only negotiating with Dunn, but massaging the big guy's esteem and helping him to feel a major part of a franchise vision and yet he clearly is dangling in the wind (and based on comments he's made on the trade deadlines, he HATES dealing with uncertainty like this)...even if the numbers still needed to be worked out, you don't think the Reds would have put themselves in a better negotiation if Dunn actually felt communicated with and appreciated more demonstratively by upper management...geez, I'm not asking Jock to put the offers in the paper, but it's not a stretch for me to consider that I don't think it's just going to be a money decision for Dunn and that actually feeling valued by those running this franchise would matter to him...the deafening silence in this area speaks, no...shouts otherwise...

Of course maybe we're selecting box #3, which quite honestly is the scariest of propositions...consider having an organizational plan where you have NO FREAKING CLUE what you are going to do with your most discernable baseball asset...this paralysis of decision-making either made it impossible to stimulate the trade market or is driving up the cost to resign him since a deal to extend him could have been done at any time this spring/summer...instead as he has a tremendous July (and hopefully the rest of the season based on continued BABIP improvement to the norm) the price tag continues to rise...

And of course, if you DO believe we don't know what we want to do, can you really feel good about the same group of decision makers drafting the 2 replacement players we would receive for compensation???...no, me neither...

I actually have not yet found the depth of despair of a fan to believe this team capable of being so stupid not to be able to work out a 4/65 type deal and to let him walk...

But the nights still early :confused:

Solid post.

Coach, I love your posts and find myself in agreement 99.9% of the time. You remind me of another top poster, Stormy, and like him, I appreicate your contributions to this board.

princeton
08-01-2008, 11:57 AM
Under the assumption that truly Dunn has not been spoken to about the possibility of signing a LT extension, the lack of saavy by the Reds in this entire process is outrageous...

maybe, but I'm with M2-- I think that Jocketty's a listener, and has spoken to Dunn and to his agent very informally, as well as to people who have spoken to Dunn and to Dunn's agent

he may not know their intentions, but probably has a solid impression about them.

RedlegJake
08-01-2008, 01:06 PM
maybe, but I'm with M2-- I think that Jocketty's a listener, and has spoken to Dunn and to his agent very informally, as well as to people who have spoken to Dunn and to Dunn's agent

he may not know their intentions, but probably has a solid impression about them.

I agree. Jocketty isn't new and he isn't stupid. If Dunn isn't re-signed then I'd have to believe that he wants more than the Reds can seriously entertain or he told them through his agent he wants to test the market. Really, when you look for anything written about it both Jocketty and Dunn have been extremely non-committal and off handed. Neither side seems to have said squat of substance on the issue of a contract. Teflon answers every time. Very possible there is understanding one way or the other. Not much can be read into not trading him at the deadline, imo. If the offer was mediocre, say from the Marlins or DBacks, the Reds would be better off long term taking a first round sandwich and second rounder.

LoganBuck
08-01-2008, 01:26 PM
Adam Dunn's wife is from Kentucky and his son has had some health issues as well. Don't underestimate these things in Adam's decision making process. He is also a workout partner and mentor/tormentor of Jay Bruce.

Jpup
08-01-2008, 01:27 PM
Adam Dunn's wife is from Kentucky and his son has had some health issues as well. Don't underestimate these things in Adam's decision making process. He is also a workout partner and mentor/tormentor of Jay Bruce.

He's going to the Astros. He and Carlos Lee and going to have a cage fight for left field. ;)

Caveat Emperor
08-01-2008, 01:41 PM
maybe, but I'm with M2-- I think that Jocketty's a listener, and has spoken to Dunn and to his agent very informally, as well as to people who have spoken to Dunn and to Dunn's agent

he may not know their intentions, but probably has a solid impression about them.

And, for that matter, I have to think Walt has a solid idea of where this team is going next year.

Making a decision on Dunn now is the most logical thing to do for all involved. The sooner they get that taken care of (one way or the other), the sooner they can start figuring out how much they have to spend and what players they need to be targeting.

One way or the other, Jocketty knows right now whether Dunn is going to be back. It's just a question of whehter or not he's going to tip his hand early.

REDREAD
08-01-2008, 02:04 PM
I highly doubt that plays a factor in Dunn's decision. He said today that the departure of Griffey will not affect his decision on wanting to return. But anyway, it's not like Griffey and Kearns were Dunn's only buddies on the team. He's also pretty close to Jay Bruce. IIRC those two have been working out together in the offseason for a couple years now.

We can't take what Dunn says to the press at face value. If a reporter asks Dunn if the Jr trade will affect his desire to resign, Dunn is trapped. He has to say that it won't affect his decision, regardless of the truth.

If Dunn said "I'm not signing here after what they did to Jr" or "I'm tired of the broadcasters" or anything like that, he's going to have some much garbage dumped on him that it will be even more intolerable.

Smart players play it just like Dunn even if they want to leave. Tell everyone they like it on their current team, and it's up to management/agents to work it out.. That way they aren't the bad guys. Even Boras clients play it that way. IIRC, Soraino made a big point of saying that he'd like to return to Washington. Only dumb players like Manny make it public that they want to leave.

REDREAD
08-01-2008, 02:11 PM
If I am the Reds I look at signing Dunn to a 4 year deal. I tack on a few more dollars if he agrees to play 1b. 4years/~$15m-$17m would be what I explore.

The Royals (or any other team) could easily top that. Especially in terms of years offered.

Tell me why Dunn is willing to take a 3-4 year contract here when he can get at least 6 years anywhere else. Also, we fans on the board are asking Dunn to take less money per year than he's likely to get as a FA.

Dunn sees this team about to shift into rebuild. He's not stupid. He said that he wanted out of here last year. If he's tired of hearing his name in trade rumors every year, why would he want to come back here?

On top of that, Dunn has lost some of his friends and has the press constantly blasting him. It's no secret he resents Marty and company's constant pounding of him. Maybe he wants to go to a team that has a radio station that his parents can listen to.

I think there's more reasons for Dunn to leave than stay.

On top of that, I don't see why anyone that claimed Jr's contract was a huge mistake would want to see Dunn signed to an even bigger deal. Think about how good Jr was when he arrived here. Dunn is not even close to being the at same level. I think Dunn is a little younger, but Dunn is a bigger risk in 2009+ than Jr was in 2000+.

REDREAD
08-01-2008, 02:15 PM
Yes, I'd agree with that two - now we have almost ten legitimate clubs who could have some interest. We can't afford Free Agent Adam Dunn's price - if we want his services, we need to sign him before the season ends. And Jocketty's history has shown he's willing to do that with his big guys.

Add the Royals to the list too. Supposedly they inquired about trading for him this year. Obviously, if they were willing to trade for him, they were willing to offer him an extension to keep him long term, since they aren't in rent-a-player mode.

REDREAD
08-01-2008, 02:19 PM
What are you basing your opinion of 10% on? I see no reason why Adam wouldn't want to play in the only place he has ever known. This team could win the pennant next year if they are wise this off season.

The constant heat he takes here from the broadcasters and press.
The fact that the Reds have not offered him an extension yet.
The fact that he's been shopped heavily.
This team is not going to contend next year. Hopefully it will improve, but it will not contend.
Speculation that he's not really happy with the club (my opinion) and just being diplomatic when interviewed.

It's not a good fit to pay Dunn his market value. As I said, many posters here have lamented Jr's contract for the last 5+ years, claiming it is an albotross. If you would not do Jr's deal in hindsight, why would you want to give Dunn 6-7 years at 18+ million/year? Because someone will offer him at least that much money on the open market.

princeton
08-01-2008, 02:20 PM
And, for that matter, I have to think Walt has a solid idea of where this team is going next year.

Walt reads Redszone?

BRM
08-01-2008, 02:30 PM
Jon Heyman lists the Reds and Adam Dunn as one of the deadline losers.



3. Reds. Their fire sale was more of a bake sale. GM Walt Jocketty did find a taker for struggling superstar Griffey, but the market turned out to be a disappointment for all-or-nothing slugger Adam Dunn and high-priced starter Bronson Arroyo.

4. Adam Dunn. The man has a major-league leading 32 home runs (not to mention a MLB-best 198 over the past five years), yet apparently no one likes him much more than Jays GM J.P. Ricciardi does. This can't be great news for Dunn as he's about to hit the free-agent market.

Caveat Emperor
08-01-2008, 02:33 PM
Walt reads Redszone?

He told me his user name on there referenced a famous institution of higher learning.

Trouble is, I haven't seen a "tulane" on here yet. ;)

redsmetz
08-01-2008, 02:39 PM
The constant heat he takes here from the broadcasters and press.
The fact that the Reds have not offered him an extension yet.
The fact that he's been shopped heavily.
This team is not going to contend next year. Hopefully it will improve, but it will not contend.
Speculation that he's not really happy with the club (my opinion) and just being diplomatic when interviewed.

It's not a good fit to pay Dunn his market value. As I said, many posters here have lamented Jr's contract for the last 5+ years, claiming it is an albotross. If you would not do Jr's deal in hindsight, why would you want to give Dunn 6-7 years at 18+ million/year? Because someone will offer him at least that much money on the open market.

The first item in your list is about the only thing that can be said with any certainty and if there were one thing that could tip the balance, it would be the trashy treatment he's received publically that would cause him to clearly walk away. WLW's trashing of Junior yesterday would serve to bolster that impression.

As for the Reds not having made him an offer yet is essentially indicative of nothing, particularly when you change GM horses in midstream. With regards to Dunn having been "shopped heavily," we really don't know if that's the case or not. I think there's little question that he was shopped (or, at least, the topic of discussions), but not much else.

As for Adam Dunn knowing the club won't contend next year, I think that's the usual RZ doom and gloom; the endless treadmill of woe that runs rampant here constantly. This club is much better than you tend to believe and I see no reason why this team can't contend next year if the right moves.

As for Griffey's contract being an albatross, it was only that way due to circumstances and some mismanagement from the earlier regime. If Griffey had not had the injuries he had that wiped out a considerable amount of time for him, this contract would have not, IMO, been the aforementioned albatross. Financially too, I think the Reds charging the entire amount of the contract each year hampered the flexibility that his salary deferral was supposed give them.

I don't know that anyone is suggesting giving Dunn an eight year contract. Perhaps the market might present that, but I'm of the opinion that it won't. Six might not be out of the question and then the Reds would have some decisions to make. But Dunn may settle with his original club for 4-5 years and decide to go home and fish the rest of his life. Thus far, he's earned nearly $37M, a five year $80M contract leaves him set for life (if he isn't already - how on earth can you spend $37M in six years?). Now the final part there is mere speculation on my part, but I don't think it's out of the realm of possibility.

klw
08-01-2008, 02:49 PM
It strikes me that the Reds do not want to bring Dunn back. Based on Walt's comments about not negotiating during the season and Dunn's comments to Fay (Similar to what he has said before, it appears there have not been any discussions. Comments throughout the media make it appear that the Reds were shopping Dunn, even if it was not aggressively. Their wanting to see how the outfield works with Hairston, Bruce and Dunn, seems like a smokescreen. They an't say they don't expect him back but that seems like the direction they are moving in to me.


Is Dunn relieved to still be a Red? "Obviously, there's 30 minutes left (to the tradeline) so nothing's going to happen. That's the only relief. I hate this time of year."

Will Griffey being gone affect Dunn's decision to stay or not should he get an offer? "Will it affect me? No. I knew he probably wasn't going to be back next year anyway. It's not affect anything at all."

Does he feel like this is his team now, as the longest-tenured Red? "I never felt like it wasn't my team."

Have the Reds talked about the future with him? "I don't know what's going on there. It's one of those things. I haven't heard anything from anyone."

redsmetz
08-01-2008, 02:57 PM
I'd love for an astute reporter (do we have any of them covering the Reds?) to put this question to Walt: "You indicated that you would prefer not negotiate during the season, that it's too much of a distraction, and yet, while at St. Louis, you reached extensions with Mark McGwire, Scott Rolen and Jim Edmonds. Are you now absolutely opposed to negotiating with a player during the season?"

Let's just get it out there so people and then we can know. Past history has shown not negotiating during the season is not written in stone. He's done it before, I think he's willing to do it again.

princeton
08-01-2008, 02:59 PM
I haven't seen a "tulane" on here yet. ;)

is tulane a college?

traderumor
08-01-2008, 03:41 PM
I'd love for an astute reporter (do we have any of them covering the Reds?) to put this question to Walt: "You indicated that you would prefer not negotiate during the season, that it's too much of a distraction, and yet, while at St. Louis, you reached extensions with Mark McGwire, Scott Rolen and Jim Edmonds. Are you now absolutely opposed to negotiating with a player during the season?"

Let's just get it out there so people and then we can know. Past history has shown not negotiating during the season is not written in stone. He's done it before, I think he's willing to do it again.
During an interview on Reds Live recently, say within the last week, Walt put it this way: he doesn't like to do contract talks during the season (PC answer), but he might have to revisit that policy if circumstances change during the season. What I hear from that is that they are going to address it in September after it is abundantly clear that they think he fits in the post-Griffey era.

flyer85
08-01-2008, 03:57 PM
is tulane a college?
or a state highway in Kentucky?

redsmetz
08-01-2008, 04:11 PM
During an interview on Reds Live recently, say within the last week, Walt put it this way: he doesn't like to do contract talks during the season (PC answer), but he might have to revisit that policy if circumstances change during the season. What I hear from that is that they are going to address it in September after it is abundantly clear that they think he fits in the post-Griffey era.

That's exactly what he did with both McGwire and Rolen.

Highlifeman21
08-01-2008, 04:49 PM
you know, Kearns also strikes me as a Walt Jocketty type of pickup...

Austin will clear waivers at least to the Reds' claiming position (I figure that Austin completely clears though-- nobody wants to pay him in 2009)


Dunn/Bruce/Kearns OF in 2009? wouldn't that be a kick.

It wouldn't surprise me if they position them Dunn/Kearns/Bruce, but it would definitely be a kick and a chance for all the casual fans to clamor about the "hometown" kid Kearns to play in between the 2 Texans.

Not sure what it is about Reds fans and their love for Tri-State talent, but it's definitely there... Until the player hits the wrong side of 35, can't run worth a lick, defends even worse than he runs and is making a boatload of money.... Then it takes the team 3+ years to trade him to the one of the only teams that showed real interest...

Big Klu
08-02-2008, 12:45 AM
you know, Kearns also strikes me as a Walt Jocketty type of pickup...

Austin will clear waivers at least to the Reds' claiming position (I figure that Austin completely clears though-- nobody wants to pay him in 2009)


Dunn/Bruce/Kearns OF in 2009? wouldn't that be a kick.

That's a good observation. Jocketty showed the ability in St. Louis to take retreads who everyone thought were washed up and squeeze a few more productive seasons out of them. (Reggie Sanders, Juan Encarnacion, Eduardo Perez, Scott Spiezio--to name a few.) Right-handed hitting (or switch-hitting) OF's who might fit that mold, and therefore might be interesting targets for Jocketty include:

Austin Kearns
Wily Mo Peña
Moises Alou
Matt Murton
Gabe Kapler
Jose Cruz, Jr.
Chris Burke
Andruw Jones
Ryan Spilborghs
Randy Winn
Jonny Gomes
Rocco Baldelli
Jay Payton
Craig Monroe
Jose Guillen
Reggie Willits
Gary Matthews, Jr.
Emil Brown

Now some of these players aren't retreads, but they may be in a position where their playing time is limited. (Spilborghs, for one.) And I wouldn't advocate everyone on the list. (I would stay away from Guillen, and probably WMP and Alou.) But these are the kinds of players that Jocketty acquired in St. Louis to be supporting cast members for Pujols, Edmonds, and Rolen. And though they appear to be second- or third-tier players, don't forget that they will benefit from the "GABP boost".

mth123
08-02-2008, 05:32 AM
That's a good observation. Jocketty showed the ability in St. Louis to take retreads who everyone thought were washed up and squeeze a few more productive seasons out of them. (Reggie Sanders, Juan Encarnacion, Eduardo Perez, Scott Spiezio--to name a few.) Right-handed hitting (or switch-hitting) OF's who might fit that mold, and therefore might be interesting targets for Jocketty include:

Austin Kearns
Wily Mo Peña
Moises Alou
Matt Murton
Gabe Kapler
Jose Cruz, Jr.
Chris Burke
Andruw Jones
Ryan Spilborghs
Randy Winn
Jonny Gomes
Rocco Baldelli
Jay Payton
Craig Monroe
Jose Guillen
Reggie Willits
Gary Matthews, Jr.
Emil Brown

Now some of these players aren't retreads, but they may be in a position where their playing time is limited. (Spilborghs, for one.) And I wouldn't advocate everyone on the list. (I would stay away from Guillen, and probably WMP and Alou.) But these are the kinds of players that Jocketty acquired in St. Louis to be supporting cast members for Pujols, Edmonds, and Rolen. And though they appear to be second- or third-tier players, don't forget that they will benefit from the "GABP boost".

Nice list. Add Coco Crisp. Willits would be my choice, followed by Crisp (though I wonder about his character after his recent thuggery on the field) and maybe Randy Winn. The Red's really need some one with some range who could make sure Bruce stays in RF. Jones and Matthews may be interesting but their teams would need to pick-up a ton of money and they would be gambles who may be done.

Big Klu
08-02-2008, 11:38 AM
Nice list. Add Coco Crisp. Willits would be my choice, followed by Crisp (though I wonder about his character after his recent thuggery on the field) and maybe Randy Winn. The Red's really need some one with some range who could make sure Bruce stays in RF. Jones and Matthews may be interesting but their teams would need to pick-up a ton of money and they would be gambles who may be done.

I knew I was forgetting somebody! Yes, Crisp should also be on that list. I would also prefer that the player be someone who can play CF (and I think Jocketty does, too), but in the short term I think Walt is willing to get a corner OF, and go with Bruce in CF for one or two years. I wouldn't be surprised to see Jay Payton in Cincinnati next year, either--he has always wanted to play close to home.

OnBaseMachine
08-02-2008, 12:02 PM
That's a good observation. Jocketty showed the ability in St. Louis to take retreads who everyone thought were washed up and squeeze a few more productive seasons out of them. (Reggie Sanders, Juan Encarnacion, Eduardo Perez, Scott Spiezio--to name a few.) Right-handed hitting (or switch-hitting) OF's who might fit that mold, and therefore might be interesting targets for Jocketty include:

Austin Kearns
Wily Mo Peña
Moises Alou
Matt Murton
Gabe Kapler
Jose Cruz, Jr.
Chris Burke
Andruw Jones
Ryan Spilborghs
Randy Winn
Jonny Gomes
Rocco Baldelli
Jay Payton
Craig Monroe
Jose Guillen
Reggie Willits
Gary Matthews, Jr.
Emil Brown

Now some of these players aren't retreads, but they may be in a position where their playing time is limited. (Spilborghs, for one.) And I wouldn't advocate everyone on the list. (I would stay away from Guillen, and probably WMP and Alou.) But these are the kinds of players that Jocketty acquired in St. Louis to be supporting cast members for Pujols, Edmonds, and Rolen. And though they appear to be second- or third-tier players, don't forget that they will benefit from the "GABP boost".

It was reported in a Denver newspaper today that Jocketty asked for Spilborghs in return for Josh Fogg and the Rockies turned it down.

Big Klu
08-02-2008, 12:04 PM
It was reported in a Denver newspaper today that Jocketty asked for Spilborghs in return for Josh Fogg and the Rockies turned it down.

That tells me that Jocketty is asking for the right people.

VR
08-02-2008, 12:26 PM
That's a good observation. Jocketty showed the ability in St. Louis to take retreads who everyone thought were washed up and squeeze a few more productive seasons out of them. (Reggie Sanders, Juan Encarnacion, Eduardo Perez, Scott Spiezio--to name a few.) Right-handed hitting (or switch-hitting) OF's who might fit that mold, and therefore might be interesting targets for Jocketty include:

Austin Kearns
Wily Mo Peña
Moises Alou
Matt Murton
Gabe Kapler
Jose Cruz, Jr.
Chris Burke
Andruw Jones
Ryan Spilborghs
Randy Winn
Jonny Gomes
Rocco Baldelli
Jay Payton
Craig Monroe
Jose Guillen
Reggie Willits
Gary Matthews, Jr.
Emil Brown

Now some of these players aren't retreads, but they may be in a position where their playing time is limited. (Spilborghs, for one.) And I wouldn't advocate everyone on the list. (I would stay away from Guillen, and probably WMP and Alou.) But these are the kinds of players that Jocketty acquired in St. Louis to be supporting cast members for Pujols, Edmonds, and Rolen. And though they appear to be second- or third-tier players, don't forget that they will benefit from the "GABP boost".

Jockety benefited from LaRussa/ Duncan's program as well. They both have an incredible ability to get the very best out of their individual players by plugging them into their team program. I'm sure WJ consulted those two before looking to acquire anyone...based not just on that players ability, but their having qualities that fit the Cards need. Plug them in, and those two will put the players in positions to be most succesful.

Superior scouting, exploiting the oppositions weakness and 'knowing their role'. Add Duncan's technical teaching ability, and a lot of chaff could be turned into quality for short bursts. You also do not see extended mental lapses by individuals or the team overall. While the Reds lead the world in unforced errors, the Cardinals would most likely be at the bottom of that list.
Was it the mother's day massacre where the inning got started by Pujols beating out a fairly routine grounder by hustling like it was the World Series, even though they were down 8 runs? That's typical Cards baseball.

I don't have that confidence in Dusty or Pole, at all. Dusty uses counterintelligence and hunches to put players in positions and 'hope' they can deliver. LaRussa knows them better than they know themselves, and everyone is surprised when they succeed except TLR. Then they leave, crash and burn, and usually meet a quick end to their career.

I have a low level of respect for TLR on a few different levels, but his organizational leadership of that club helped make WJ look very, very good.