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princeton
08-01-2008, 10:03 AM
not much happens after Aug 1. Last year, we moved Jeff Conine; in '06, we acquired Ryan Franklin, Todd Hollandsworth, Scott Schoeneweiss.

this year, I'm betting that we'd have a small chance to move Bronson Arroyo. Reds would have to be lucky to move Weathers for much-- I'm sure that there's interest, but the claiming team would have a lot of leverage.

and I'd be surprised if we didn't shop for an OFer (Austin Kearns?)

flyer85
08-01-2008, 10:04 AM
you would think that most Reds would be claimed other than Arroyo and Cordero.

REDREAD
08-01-2008, 10:53 AM
Arroyo would be claimed. I don't think it's in the Reds' best interest to trade him though.

If the Reds want to trade Arroyo, they should trade him in the offseason, when they can negotiate with more than one team. Keep him the rest of the year. Let his value continue to rise. Also, we are so thin now with Malony and Thompson on the DL (IIRC)..
Who is going to pitch the innings if Arroyo is traded?

If Walt didn't get a worthy offer for Arroyo in July, he's not likely to get a better one in August. Whoever claims Arroyo will be looking to either steal him or simply block another team from getting him.

puca
08-01-2008, 11:19 AM
Arroyo would be claimed. I don't think it's in the Reds' best interest to trade him though.

If the Reds want to trade Arroyo, they should trade him in the offseason, when they can negotiate with more than one team. Keep him the rest of the year. Let his value continue to rise. Also, we are so thin now with Malony and Thompson on the DL (IIRC)..
Who is going to pitch the innings if Arroyo is traded?

If Walt didn't get a worthy offer for Arroyo in July, he's not likely to get a better one in August. Whoever claims Arroyo will be looking to either steal him or simply block another team from getting him.


I'm not so sure Arroyo would be claimed.

He gets awfully expensive next year.

Too expensive if he is just an innings eater. If that is how the Reds view him, they would be better off losing him to the claim and picking up someone like Livan Hernandez on the cheap.

The only way a trade happens is if the Reds pick up some salary, the more salary the better the return. And even if the Reds pick up a huge chunk of salary, I'm not sure they would get a ton of return.

rotnoid
08-01-2008, 11:39 AM
Not to mention that anyone they'd get in return also has to pass through waivers, which lessens the potential ML ready return on a trade for someone like Arroyo. Not worth it in August, if they're going to trade him, and I don't think they should, they need to wait until December.

redsmetz
08-01-2008, 12:02 PM
I'm not so sure Arroyo would be claimed.

He gets awfully expensive next year.

Too expensive if he is just an innings eater. If that is how the Reds view him, they would be better off losing him to the claim and picking up someone like Livan Hernandez on the cheap.

The only way a trade happens is if the Reds pick up some salary, the more salary the better the return. And even if the Reds pick up a huge chunk of salary, I'm not sure they would get a ton of return.

I know Arroyo's salary goes up next year, but I don't think his contract is extraordinarily high. I don't see him as untradeable and I think there are clubs who would be more than willing, and able, to afford his contract without us kicking some in. Do folks really believe the Reds are so Little League that they can't afford a pitcher's salary in the neighborhood of Arroyo's?

Don't misunderstand, I'm not saying we shouldn't consider trading him, but I don't think his salary is such a drag to keep us from doing that or having to eat some of his salary.

Now, whether he's moveable this season still, isn't clear to me.

chicoruiz
08-01-2008, 12:06 PM
I don't think you'd be looking for an ML-ready guy for him anyway. And as far as negotiating with only one team, they can certainly negotiate with any team they want; they just have to make the deal contingent on Arroyo clearing waivers.

puca
08-01-2008, 12:55 PM
I know Arroyo's salary goes up next year, but I don't think his contract is extraordinarily high. I don't see him as untradeable and I think there are clubs who would be more than willing, and able, to afford his contract without us kicking some in. Do folks really believe the Reds are so Little League that they can't afford a pitcher's salary in the neighborhood of Arroyo's?

Don't misunderstand, I'm not saying we shouldn't consider trading him, but I don't think his salary is such a drag to keep us from doing that or having to eat some of his salary.

Now, whether he's moveable this season still, isn't clear to me.

Bronson due to make 9.5 million next year and 11 million in 2010.

I believe big money teams understand the game. They understand that if they are offering salary relief then they should not cough up any significant prospects. Which is precisely how they prefer to operate. The only way small money teams are involved with Bronson is if the Reds kick in some serious cash.

If the Reds believe that Bronson is a 5+ ERA starter going forward then they certainly might consider letting him go for a waiver claim. That threat alone would keep most teams from claiming him.

NDRed
08-01-2008, 02:50 PM
By the way, in 1165 inings pitched Arroyo's ERA is 4.38.

He is 31 years old, I would not consider him to be someone who should be moved. Bottom line is his production would not be easy to replace and his moving on would likley mean a weaker team.

princeton
08-01-2008, 02:57 PM
By the way, in 1165 inings pitched Arroyo's ERA is 4.38.

He is 31 years old, I would not consider him to be someone who should be moved. Bottom line is his production would not be easy to replace and his moving on would likley mean a weaker team.


that's why the Reds can ask a lot for him. They might not get it, but they at least have to ask.

LincolnparkRed
08-01-2008, 03:10 PM
I would say keep him. None of the young guys are guarantees, Maloney, Bailey, Thompson. A rotation of a turned around Harang, Voloquez and an improved Cueto needs another horse to carry 200 innings next year Arroyo still looks better than Bedard or any of last years $$$ starters