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View Full Version : The Direction of The Reds



Ltlabner
08-01-2008, 02:41 PM
The Reds had a chance to make other deals: "We chose not to. . . We thought we were better off holding on to our players and trying to win as many games as we can."

Started a thread on this yesterday but it got sent to cyber-pergatory in all the hoopla. I think I've refined what I was trying to say yesterday anyway, so it's probably better that it was Hoffa'ed.

The main question is this....is the above quote BCasts presser throw-away mumbo-jumbo to cover for the (somewhat) suprising lack of movement at the trade deadline? Or is it the statement of an organizational direction?

Does the Jr trade signal any sort of future direction in the Walt era Reds?

My feeling is that BCast feals .500 is an important "psychological" plateau and that the fans would rather go 82-80, than make moves now that result in a sub-.500 year but set us up for a stronger year in 2009. On the mark? Bunk?

There's not much info to work on based on the near complete lack of trades, but what little bit I'm getting from BCast doesn't warm the heart.

hebroncougar
08-01-2008, 02:43 PM
I doubt most would say the Reds have a "direction". Their ship still seems pretty rudderless to me.

Degenerate39
08-01-2008, 02:44 PM
If were going to lose then I'd rather get some real good draft picks out of it. Screw .500. You won't make the playoffs at .500. Don't throw the games but try to get the best position in the draft as possible.

BRM
08-01-2008, 02:45 PM
My feeling is that BCast feals .500 is an important "psychological" plateau and that the fans would rather go 82-80, than make moves now that result in a sub-.500 year but set us up for a stronger year in 2009. On the mark? Bunk?


I think Castellini does feel that way. I think his goal is a winning season, no matter what.

HokieRed
08-01-2008, 02:50 PM
I suspect the statement doesn't mean a lot as to direction. The way I read it is, "We could have got salary relief for Weathers, Affeldt, and maybe Ross; we could have moved Arroyo if we'd eaten a large part of his otherwise unmovable salary; we might have moved Harang if he hadn't gotten hurt. Outside of Harang none of these players would have brought enough to make it worth the losses we'll take the rest of the way without them. We want to stay as competitive as we can for the sake of the fans the rest of the way."

boognish
08-01-2008, 02:54 PM
I think the Reds, with a number of good performances by players not under contract for next year such as Lincoln, Hairston and Affeldt, and arb eligibles such as Encarnacion, are justified in holding onto their players to gather a bit more performance data before decisions must be made in the offseason, IMO. If the desire is legitimately to win 82 games, that is disconcerting, but I like to think it is largely fluff to the press. Hopefully this is proven correct over the next few months.

Bako, Weathers, Patterson, Valentin, Ross, Maj, and others who should be jettisoned not only should clear waivers but also would not bring any meaningful depth to the system in return.

In other words, I am kind of disappointed at the lack of activity but am willing to wait it out and see if a clear direction is indicated. Much will come to light whichever way Griffey's PT is allocated (whether Dickerson or Hairston), assuming of course that it is not given to Patterson or Freel if he comes back. In a clear buyers' market, they were able to get something for Junior, and that is at least encouraging even if the deadline activity was poor overall.

traderumor
08-01-2008, 02:55 PM
I doubt most would say the Reds have a "direction". Their ship still seems pretty rudderless to me.I think to be fair, it is awfully difficult to get a read since Walt picked up Wayne's who picked up DanO's work in progress, both of which were in draft and develop mode. Wayne liked to find his diamond in the rough that another org had given up on, and he showed a willingness to address major holes through Free Agency.

Walt has been hinting that he likes his young talent a lot, though. I personally think that if he signs Dunn, he will make at least one big trade in the offseason that will involve a highly regarded youngster (EE?) in a package. Maybe something like highly regarded youngster/Arroyo for one of catcher/centerfielder/shortstop of the future? I also think he should and will be able to trade Homer. It would also be nice to see Harang come back strong and play the market with him on the premise that he may be on the wrong side of his peak.

But, based on Walt's history, look for some highly regarded prospects, what few we have, to be packaged for immediately upgrading the major league roster.

durl
08-01-2008, 02:56 PM
I think the Reds have a direction. Young talent is (and has been) working it's way through the minor league system. The bullpen is improving and efforts have been made to improve the rotation.

I read a lot of suggestions on here about "direction" but a lot of it (not all, to be sure) seems closer to fantasy league ideas than real-world possibilities. Players names are thrown around without regard to their current contract status or money involved.

Joseph
08-01-2008, 02:56 PM
I believe it is also somewhat true. Outside those of us here at RZ who are perhaps unhealthy in our obsessions with the Reds, the average fan would see .500 as a large step in the right direction. Believe it or not, Cast wants to impress the average fan as much as he might us.

RedsManRick
08-01-2008, 02:58 PM
I think sometimes people confuse change for direction. Yes, the roster has changed. But I'm yet to convinced that the strategy is anything other than praying for a perfect storm of all our prospects reaching their ceilings and a bunch of retreads outperforming their career levels.

Change? Yes. Direction? TBD.

bucksfan
08-01-2008, 03:04 PM
I think the Reds have a direction. Young talent is (and has been) working it's way through the minor league system. The bullpen is improving and efforts have been made to improve the rotation.

I read a lot of suggestions on here about "direction" but a lot of it (not all, to be sure) seems closer to fantasy league ideas than real-world possibilities. Players names are thrown around without regard to their current contract status or money involved.


I agree, especially with that last part, and I'd add "without regard to whether the actual humans involved in all the theoretical transactions that" should have been made" were willing.

RedlegJake
08-01-2008, 03:35 PM
We're all tired of losing but Jocketty can't determine the direction or change the course of a team in a half season. I know - the same old wait for him to have a chance to work it all out but the fact is that's the hard truth. Bowden-O'Brien-Krivsky. Change after change. There needs to be stability at the top with a guy who has done it before - the Reds have that now. Time is the hard part - who knows how fast Walt can turn this around. One thing for sure - the Reds found out how little their fillers, relievers and bench players were worth. Jocketty would have moved more guys if the Reds return was going to improve the club next year. I strongly suspect that except for the last minute deal that moved Junior no one was offering anything that would have meant more than simple roster churn.

traderumor
08-01-2008, 03:48 PM
We're all tired of losing but Jocketty can't determine the direction or change the course of a team in a half season. I know - the same old wait for him to have a chance to work it all out but the fact is that's the hard truth. Bowden-O'Brien-Krivsky. Change after change. There needs to be stability at the top with a guy who has done it before - the Reds have that now. Time is the hard part - who knows how fast Walt can turn this around. One thing for sure - the Reds found out how little their fillers, relievers and bench players were worth. Jocketty would have moved more guys if the Reds return was going to improve the club next year. I strongly suspect that except for the last minute deal that moved Junior no one was offering anything that would have meant more than simple roster churn.
That is the hard truth. It sounds like so much excuses, but really, if you look back over baseball history, quickly turning around a baseball franchise going the wrong direction is sort of like asking someone to do donuts in the North Atlantic with the Titanic. Now, I'm sure someone can pull out their exceptions of quick turnarounds, but what I am saying is that the general rule in this sport is that losing due to bad management (as opposed to bad luck) rarely lends the option of a quick fix, absent virtually unlimited resources.

With that said, he does have the advantage of a good core of young players, both position and pitchers, that his most recent predecessors did not. In the final analysis, the Lindner and Bowden era are the gift that just keeps on giving. To me, they comprise the roots of the tree that has produced the bad fruit. Just this week, we should be reminded that Carl's gift of nixing the Griffey trade two years ago netted us a middle reliever and minor league infielder instead of having our center field patrolled by Chris Young. The list of poo piles left behind by those two is quite extensive and well-documented around here.

KronoRed
08-01-2008, 03:49 PM
Those 80 wins a few years ago really showed we were on the right track ;)

SunDeck
08-01-2008, 04:02 PM
That is the hard truth. It sounds like so much excuses, but really, if you look back over baseball history, quickly turning around a baseball franchise going the wrong direction is sort of like asking someone to do donuts in the North Atlantic with the Titanic. Now, I'm sure someone can pull out their exceptions of quick turnarounds, but what I am saying is that the general rule in this sport is that losing due to bad management (as opposed to bad luck) rarely lends the option of a quick fix, absent virtually unlimited resources.

With that said, he does have the advantage of a good core of young players, both position and pitchers, that his most recent predecessors did not. In the final analysis, the Lindner and Bowden era are the gift that just keeps on giving. To me, they comprise the roots of the tree that has produced the bad fruit. Just this week, we should be reminded that Carl's gift of nixing the Griffey trade two years ago netted us a middle reliever and minor league infielder instead of having our center field patrolled by Chris Young. The list of poo piles left behind by those two is quite extensive and well-documented around here.

I think it goes beyond Lindner. Clearly, he was in it to buy low and sell high, which he did. But prior to that Marge did an awful lot to strip the organization of its ability to develop players. My take on the Griffey trade is that the Reds are pleased as punch that someone, anyone came calling. And my take on the lack of movement regarding Dunn is twofold; there was little interest and he's not such a bad guy to have on the roster long term.

Does this team have a direction? I think yes- they are working (and have been since Dan'O, despite what people say. They are just doing a better job now.) to right a ship that had been taking on water for a very long time. And I agree with Traderumor wholeheartedly, it takes a long time to turn things around to build a club that can build their success from Class A to the major league club.

MartyFan
08-01-2008, 04:13 PM
I think the statement is a true one from Cast and I think it is reality...this team is not as bad as it has played...it has underperformed in the field and at the plate...I say the core is good to go for next year with the pitchers all having another year of experience.

bucksfan2
08-01-2008, 04:20 PM
I find this thread interesting. There are some out there who don't see a direction or a plan so they think the reds FO doesn't have one. There are others out there who don't like the direction they are going in so they don't think the FO has a plan. I just don't get it when people are upset that there wasn't more movement from the Reds. This isn't fantasy baseball. Every player isn't tradeable and every player who is tradeable doesn't return the correct value.

I am sure the Reds could have traded Weathers, Affeldt, Dunn, Ross, etc. However if the Reds didn't like any of the players they would have received in return they would have been foolish to do so. Arroyo could have been traded but over his last 10 starts he has been pitching very well. It doesn't really hurt the team to keep Arroyo who will give you some valuable innings.

Team turn arounds don't happen overnight. It would be nice if you could pick the exact time your team is going to content but you can't. You have to always be making moves to make you club better. Sometimes you have to sign a Cordero a year or two ahead of time because there might not be that option on the market when you want it. The Tigers acquired both Ordonez and Pudge a year or two before their rise. In hindsight were those trades foolish?

Walt Jocketty isn't an idiot. He didn't build the Cards into a powerhouse by luck. He didn't luck into a 2 WS appearances and one title. The Reds have done a very good job of keeping a core group of players intact for a while now. It remains to be seen how that group pans out but atleast there is hope.

Spring~Fields
08-01-2008, 05:07 PM
I think to be fair, it is awfully difficult to get a read since Walt picked up Wayne's who picked up DanO's work in progress, both of which were in draft and develop mode. Wayne liked to find his diamond in the rough that another org had given up on, and he showed a willingness to address major holes through Free Agency.

Walt has been hinting that he likes his young talent a lot, though. I personally think that if he signs Dunn, he will make at least one big trade in the offseason that will involve a highly regarded youngster (EE?) in a package. Maybe something like highly regarded youngster/Arroyo for one of catcher/centerfielder/shortstop of the future? I also think he should and will be able to trade Homer. It would also be nice to see Harang come back strong and play the market with him on the premise that he may be on the wrong side of his peak.

But, based on Walt's history, look for some highly regarded prospects, what few we have, to be packaged for immediately upgrading the major league roster.


That is the hard truth. It sounds like so much excuses, but really, if you look back over baseball history, quickly turning around a baseball franchise going the wrong direction is sort of like asking someone to do donuts in the North Atlantic with the Titanic. Now, I'm sure someone can pull out their exceptions of quick turnarounds, but what I am saying is that the general rule in this sport is that losing due to bad management (as opposed to bad luck) rarely lends the option of a quick fix, absent virtually unlimited resources.

With that said, he does have the advantage of a good core of young players, both position and pitchers, that his most recent predecessors did not. In the final analysis, the Lindner and Bowden era are the gift that just keeps on giving. To me, they comprise the roots of the tree that has produced the bad fruit. Just this week, we should be reminded that Carl's gift of nixing the Griffey trade two years ago netted us a middle reliever and minor league infielder instead of having our center field patrolled by Chris Young. The list of poo piles left behind by those two is quite extensive and well-documented around here.

Well said, especially considering the order of events past to present.

About time you showed up . :)

Kc61
08-01-2008, 05:14 PM
Bruce, Votto, EE, Phillips, Volquez, Bailey, Cueto, Burton, Bray. That's nine very young players, all of whom are in the major leagues. All of whom get significant playing (or pitching) time.

That's a direction to me.

Some people think direction requires a one hundred percent youth movement or the total opposite. Not so.

The Reds direction is to build primarily with youth, but adding a key veteran here and there. I think it's a good plan. Now they just have to execute it well, and there's a way to go.

Spring~Fields
08-01-2008, 05:26 PM
Jocketty has been quoted as calling it a “rebuilding” a “retooling” and that he wanted to have a “group of players that they could control for sometime“.

Jocketty is indicating a direction and a plan, though it might seem to be in conflict with the ambiguous and flowery terms that his boss will use upon occasion.

Jocketty appears to be attempting to do what reasonable minded general managers before him were attempting to do while under certain financial constraints, limited player resources, coupled with time tables and expenses that were under estimated and unrealistic by the current CEO to build his goal of a winning organization.

Now if the boss and “powers that be” will just fund the research and development of the plan and direction for Jocketty and get out of his way, the Reds can move forward.

redsmetz
08-01-2008, 05:33 PM
Jocketty has been quoted as calling it a “rebuilding” a “retooling” and that he wanted to have a “group of players that they could control for sometime“.

Jocketty is indicating a direction and a plan, though it might seem to be in conflict with the ambiguous and flowery terms that his boss will use upon occasion.

Jocketty appears to be attempting to do what reasonable minded general managers before him were attempting to do while under certain financial constraints, limited player resources, coupled with time tables and expenses that were under estimated and unrealistic by the current CEO to build his goal of a winning organization.

Now if the boss and “powers that be” will just fund the research and development of the plan and direction for Jocketty and get out of his way, the Reds can move forward.

Has Jocketty actually uttered the words "retooling" or "rebuilding"? I saw John Fay using those words this morning, but that's just Fay being John Fay, IMO. I really don't believe this organization is as disfunctional as some believe them to be, even with the impetuous move Castellini made firing Krivsky early this season. I would suggest that Jocketty's lack of movement seems to be following the same path Krivsky was. This organization still has a good core of young players. The trick will be improving the club while hanging on to as much of the young talented core - frankly the hallmark of what Krivsky pulled off this winter.

Spring~Fields
08-02-2008, 09:17 AM
Has Jocketty actually uttered the words "retooling" or "rebuilding"? I saw John Fay using those words this morning, but that's just Fay being John Fay, IMO. I really don't believe this organization is as disfunctional as some believe them to be, even with the impetuous move Castellini made firing Krivsky early this season. I would suggest that Jocketty's lack of movement seems to be following the same path Krivsky was. This organization still has a good core of young players. The trick will be improving the club while hanging on to as much of the young talented core - frankly the hallmark of what Krivsky pulled off this winter.

I don't know if Fay takes liberties with his interviews. I read what you and others read. Though I don't need to read to know that the Reds are rebuilding or retooling, the term for me, simply implies that they are trying to put together a team that they can compete with, which they are and have been since the days of Bowden.


I really don't believe this organization is as disfunctional as some believe them to be, even with the impetuous move Castellini made firing Krivsky early this season.

Though the organization has failed to provide their consumers with a good product since at least 2001, and have basically funded the team year after year to have two marquee names, and have filled out the rest of the roster with less than what was needed to have a positive RS RA DIFF, annually, season after season.

For example Griffey and a Larkin, or later a Griffey and a Dunn, to market luxury boxes and season ticket packages in a stadium that was built for the homerun.

I don't think that the ownership group of Lindner, Strike and Reich and now their new partner Castellini are dysfunctional, I believe they are very wise, conservative businessmen, making good money and a nice return on their debt financed investment.

Fairly intelligent marketing, they under fund the team in comparison to their nearest competitors, while telling the fans that they want to win, year after year, and rake in a nice return on investment.

Jocketty can do all the "tricks" that he wants, but without the personnel, or the complete package of tools to obtain them, he will won't be able to do anymore than Bowden, Kullman, O'Brien, or Krivsky. Though O'Brien and Krivsky have given him something to work with, some young pitchers and hitters who are still a work in progress.

Somehow I just don't think that Milwaukee, Houston, Chicago, and St. Louis are going to back up the bus, and wait for the Reds to catch up. :)

As we have seen through their winning of the division year after year, they're not dysfunctional either. The future results like the past results will speak to who is the most adept in the business of winning baseball games, truly functional or dysfunctional.

Az Red
08-02-2008, 11:11 AM
Walt Jocketty isn't an idiot. He didn't build the Cards into a powerhouse by luck. He didn't luck into a 2 WS appearances and one title. The Reds have done a very good job of keeping a core group of players intact for a while now. It remains to be seen how that group pans out but atleast there is hope.

I think the Reds set the bar on what they wanted in return for Jr, Dunn, Weathers, et al. WJ's not an idiot. They got their asking price for Griffey, not for the others. Bowl him over and we would be talking about other players and what was received in return. I still think the plan is to trim off some of the soon-to-be free agents. Notice, no long term deal for Dunn announced. They would still trade him if they got their asking price: Three top level prospects.

As the season gets closer to the waiver deadline, you will hear rumors again.

OldXOhio
08-02-2008, 12:39 PM
I believe it is also somewhat true. Outside those of us here at RZ who are perhaps unhealthy in our obsessions with the Reds, the average fan would see .500 as a large step in the right direction. Believe it or not, Cast wants to impress the average fan as much as he might us.

If the Reds do get to .500 by October, will Cast hang a large "MISSION ACCOMPLISHED" sign at the downtown celebration commemorating the hugely successful season?