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BuckeyeRedleg
08-01-2008, 05:15 PM
Free Agents OFF THE BOOKS (assuming nobody re-signs):

Dunn.....$13,000,000
Griffey....$12,000,000
Patterson..$3,000,000
Affeldt.....$3,000,000
Weathers...$2,750,000
Ross....$2,525,000 *($3,500,000 club option for '09 - is there a buyout?)
Valentin....$1,325,000
Fogg....$1,000,000
Bako....$750,000
Mercker....$600,000
Hairston....$500,000

total: -$39,910,000




RAISES (from 2008 to 2009):

1. Arroyo.....$4,975,000 ($1.5M raise from 2009 to 2010)
2. Harang.....$4,250,000 ($1.5M raise from 2009 to 2010)
3. Cordero....$3,375,000 (no raise from 2009 to 2010)
4. Phillips.....$1,250,000 ($2M raise from 2009 to 2010)
5. Gonzalez...$1,250,000 (500K buyout in 2010)
6. Freel........$1,000,000 (last year of contract)

total: +$16,100,000 (+$5,500,000 more from 2009 to 2010)


ARB ELIGIBLE RAISES:

7. Encarnacion...guess: $4,000,000
8. Lincoln....guess: $1,000,000
9. Majewski...guess: $1,000,000
10. Belisle....guess: $1,000,000 (if not released)
11. Coffey...guess: $1,000,000 (if not released)


total possible: +$8,000,000


ARB INELIGIBLE RAISES (ELIGIBLE FOR ARB AFTER 2009):

12. Bray....$50,000*
13. Keppinger....$50,000*
14. Hopper....$50,000*
15. Burton....$50,000*

total possible: +$200,000

*based on Encarnacion's 2008 salary of $440,000.


ARB INELIGIBLE RAISES:

16. Masset...$12,500
17. Volquez...$12,500
18. Bailey....$12,500
19. Votto....$12,500
20. Cueto....$12,500
21. Bruce....$12,500

total possible: +$75,000


TOTAL RAISES: +$24,375,000
TOTAL OFF THE BOOKS: -$39,910,000

DIFFERENCE: -$15,535,000



So, not including re-signing Dunn, Affeldt, Weathers, Ross, or God forbid, Patterson the Reds will knock $15,535,000 off of the 2008 payroll once arbitration and raises are added and free agent contracts are knocked off the books.

Essentially, the Reds have $15.5 M to play with in FA to break even. That may all be used up on Dunn, however it is possible to re-sign Dunn at $15-16M per and still have the payroll remain relatively the same, even with the huge raises due for Harang, Arroyo, Phillips, and Cordero (+$13.85M).

My point is that if you re-sign Dunn ($16M per), Affeldt ($3M for one year), and Hairston ($2M for one year) the team payroll will only be roughly $5M more in 2009 than it is 2008. Freeing Arroyo or Cordero's contract just may be the difference in bringing in a C.C. Sabathia or standing pat once Dunn, Affeldt, and Hairston are re-signed.

RedsManRick
08-01-2008, 05:31 PM
Great post. :thumbup:

The point I would make, and which I have made ad nauseam, is that this team can't buy enough talent to be competitive. As of today we have roughly $15M less than we we spent in '08 committed, and that doesn't include Dunn. Add Dunn, or even comparable production priced appropriately distributed elsewhere, and you haven't come out ahead. The way this team is set up, the young guys have to continue to improve or we're dead in the water.

Falls City Beer
08-01-2008, 06:08 PM
Great post. :thumbup:

The point I would make, and which I have made ad nauseam, is that this team can't buy enough talent to be competitive. As of today we have roughly $15M less than we we spent in '08 committed, and that doesn't include Dunn. Add Dunn, or even comparable production priced appropriately distributed elsewhere, and you haven't come out ahead. The way this team is set up, the young guys have to continue to improve or we're dead in the water.

Isn't that the gambit of every team betting the house on youth? Incidentally, I'm not all that sold on this team's youth (outside of Cueto and Volquez).

My guess is they'll take the draft picks for Dunn and try to dig up an Edmonds in the offseason.

jmcclain19
08-01-2008, 06:42 PM
The Reds owe Mike Stanton $500k next year for not picking up his option. Same goes with Juan Castro - that's $100k for not picking up his option. The Reds are also on the hook for $2mil of Junior's $4mil option. Ross has a $350k buyout next year.

The Reds also have over $8.75mil in sunk costs that won't be re-occuring in 2009.
-$2.5mil signing bonus for Arroyo
-$250k option for Rheal Cormier
-$3mil for Mike Stanton
-$975k for Castro
-$1.85mil for Hatteberg

Spring~Fields
08-01-2008, 06:48 PM
RAISES (from 2008 to 2009):

1. Arroyo.....$4,975,000 ($1.5M raise from 2009 to 2010)
2. Harang.....$4,250,000 ($1.5M raise from 2009 to 2010)
3. Cordero....$3,375,000 (no raise from 2009 to 2010)
4. Phillips.....$1,250,000 ($2M raise from 2009 to 2010)
5. Gonzalez...$1,250,000 (500K buyout in 2010)
6. Freel........$1,000,000 (last year of contract)

total: +$16,100,000 (+$5,500,000 more from 2009 to 2010)


ARB ELIGIBLE RAISES:

7. Encarnacion...guess: $4,000,000
8. Lincoln....guess: $1,000,000
9. Majewski...guess: $1,000,000
10. Belisle....guess: $1,000,000 (if not released)
11. Coffey...guess: $1,000,000 (if not released)


total possible: +$8,000,000


ARB INELIGIBLE RAISES (ELIGIBLE FOR ARB AFTER 2009):

12. Bray....$50,000*
13. Keppinger....$50,000*
14. Hopper....$50,000*
15. Burton....$50,000*

total possible: +$200,000

*based on Encarnacion's 2008 salary of $440,000.


ARB INELIGIBLE RAISES:

16. Masset...$12,500
17. Volquez...$12,500
18. Bailey....$12,500
19. Votto....$12,500
20. Cueto....$12,500
21. Bruce....$12,500

total possible: +$75,000


TOTAL RAISES: +$24,375,000
TOTAL OFF THE BOOKS: -$39,910,000

DIFFERENCE: -$15,535,000



So, not including re-signing Dunn, Affeldt, Weathers, Ross, or God forbid, Patterson the Reds will knock $15,535,000 off of the 2008 payroll once arbitration and raises are added and free agent contracts are knocked off the books.

Essentially, the Reds have $15.5 M to play with in FA to break even. That may all be used up on Dunn, however it is possible to re-sign Dunn at $15-16M per and still have the payroll remain relatively the same, even with the huge raises due for Harang, Arroyo, Phillips, and Cordero (+$13.85M).

My point is that if you re-sign Dunn ($16M per), Affeldt ($3M for one year), and Hairston ($2M for one year) the team payroll will only be roughly $5M more in 2009 than it is 2008. Freeing Arroyo or Cordero's contract just may be the difference in bringing in a C.C. Sabathia or standing pat once Dunn, Affeldt, and Hairston are re-signed.



Free Agents OFF THE BOOKS (assuming nobody re-signs):

Dunn.....$13,000,000
Griffey....$12,000,000
Patterson..$3,000,000
Affeldt.....$3,000,000
Weathers...$2,750,000
Ross....$2,525,000 *($3,500,000 club option for '09 - is there a buyout?)
Valentin....$1,325,000
Fogg....$1,000,000
Bako....$750,000
Mercker....$600,000
Hairston....$500,000

total: -$39,910,000


These eleven players will have to be replaced and have replacement cost that we don't know yet.

Plus

Stanton
Hatteberg
Castro

Also come off

DIFFERENCE: -$15,535,000 / 11 $1,412,272.72 to spend per replacement player if I interpretred your work correctly.

guttle11
08-01-2008, 06:49 PM
I'm honestly not worried about the payroll. If Jocketty wants to go after a FA he feels can help the team win right now, Castellini will sign off on the deal and thus raise payroll.

I'm far more worried about the "who" than the "if".

Spring~Fields
08-01-2008, 06:56 PM
Great post. :thumbup:

The point I would make, and which I have made ad nauseam, is that this team can't buy enough talent to be competitive. As of today we have roughly $15M less than we we spent in '08 committed, and that doesn't include Dunn. Add Dunn, or even comparable production priced appropriately distributed elsewhere, and you haven't come out ahead. The way this team is set up, the young guys have to continue to improve or we're dead in the water.

Yes, and in addition the investors/owners have to adequately fund the team. Otherwise the general manager will be compelled to fill out the rest of team with filler and fodder. Increase in payroll reduction in talent.

traderumor
08-01-2008, 06:59 PM
One thing about the numbers. I would figure Dunn to only get an incremental increase of about $5M ($18M in year 1) for 2009. So, that really leaves about $10M out there in comparison to this year, unless I'm missing a factor.

Spring~Fields
08-01-2008, 07:11 PM
The team is under funded for the cost of players in the year 2008-2009 for league average players to upgrade the team.

This is one of the barriers that the general managers have been having to deal with back to the year 2000 forward.

The funding allows for one or two expensive players, (not really) and then leaves a small portion or percentage of the budget to try to fill out the rest of the roster, then the team ends up with too many below league average players, then we see a RS RA - DIFF in competition against the other well funded teams that have the player resources in a combination of major league level and minor league feeder system in tact.

Payroll goes up, but not the overall quality of players for the Reds

Spring~Fields
08-01-2008, 07:13 PM
One thing about the numbers. I would figure Dunn to only get an incremental increase of about $5M ($18M in year 1) for 2009. So, that really leaves about $10M out there in comparison to this year, unless I'm missing a factor.

Good luck Walt. :(

The other problem with the numbers are like when we compare player stats, and don't compare them against the other players, it is like that here when we don't compare the Reds payroll to their immediate competitors in the Central to get a clearer and more accurate picture regarding competing.

BuckeyeRedleg
08-01-2008, 09:00 PM
These eleven players will have to be replaced and have replacement cost that we don't know yet.

Plus

Stanton
Hatteberg
Castro

Also come off

DIFFERENCE: -$15,535,000 / 11 $1,412,272.72 to spend per replacement player if I interpretred your work correctly.

I numbered the re-signs 1-21. Then, with the addition of Affeldt, Hairston, and Dunn, that comes to 24.

I was basing the rest on players currently on the roster, so I excluded Stanton, Castro, and Hats.

Also, to answer jmcclain19, I thought the White Sox and Reds split the rest of Junior's contract. So, the way I look at it is the Reds pay the rest of 2008 ($4M) and Chicago is on the hook for the $4M buyout.

edabbs44
08-01-2008, 10:33 PM
The team is under funded for the cost of players in the year 2008-2009 for league average players to upgrade the team.

This is one of the barriers that the general managers have been having to deal with back to the year 2000 forward.

The funding allows for one or two expensive players, (not really) and then leaves a small portion or percentage of the budget to try to fill out the rest of the roster, then the team ends up with too many below league average players, then we see a RS RA - DIFF in competition against the other well funded teams that have the player resources in a combination of major league level and minor league feeder system in tact.

Payroll goes up, but not the overall quality of players for the Reds

This is exactly why this team needed to dump salary two years ago and start collecting prospects and top tier talent in the draft. If they aren't going to dedicate serious capital to the roster as it stands, they have no shot at competing.

*BaseClogger*
08-01-2008, 10:35 PM
Also, to answer jmcclain19, I thought the White Sox and Reds split the rest of Junior's contract. So, the way I look at it is the Reds pay the rest of 2008 ($4M) and Chicago is on the hook for the $4M buyout.

I don't think you can do that though because they are two seperate budgets: the 2008 budget and the 2009 budget. You gotta put $2 million towards next year...

Spring~Fields
08-01-2008, 10:41 PM
This is exactly why this team needed to dump salary two years ago and start collecting prospects and top tier talent in the draft. If they aren't going to dedicate serious capital to the roster as it stands, they have no shot at competing.

That's right or they have to build up through the minors. They have not done that since the, well, you can track the payrolls I have posted the years and comparisons on here, even if the numbers aren't exact, and they probably are not since teams don't disclose much, the numbers will still be some sort of picture for us to see a comparison.

I left some of those links for you on the other thread, http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=70591&page=6

after I got myself up to speed to see what occured back and then coming forward on that other thread, they did the sell off back with Brad Kullman, and they have been trying to rebuild and retool ever since with an under funded budget and without the minor league system to support them. I wish it did not take so long to research then to put it into some sort of reasonable order and then though, it becomes information overload for any of us to read on a message board, I tried to put it into some sort of order, but it is too long.

That is why I was glad to see traderumor back on the board, and I was hoping that he would take some time to write about it, because he is a much better writer and he knows what we are all getting at with the payroll, percentage of payroll going to player X and how that effects the present and future, along with the funding for the minors, and other capital outlays like the move to AZ etc.

It becomes owners being unrealisticly expecting A LOT from their GMs, in the face of the competition. He also can explain better than I ( I hope)how the roots of the problem for the organization started back in the Bowden/Lindner era and has worked its way forward.

I am hoping that Jocketty will be wiser, and do a hybrid combination of the minor league and prospect with wise trades also, FA, and cash.

BuckeyeRedleg
08-01-2008, 11:18 PM
I don't think you can do that though because they are two seperate budgets: the 2008 budget and the 2009 budget. You gotta put $2 million towards next year...

No you don't. $4M is $4M.

He is owed $4M this year on his $12M and they have a $4M buyout.

Either way, the Reds are out only $4M of the $8M he is owed.

Why couldn't you just look at it as $4M now and $4 off the books in 2009?

*BaseClogger*
08-01-2008, 11:56 PM
No you don't. $4M is $4M.

He is owed $4M this year on his $12M and they have a $4M buyout.

Either way, the Reds are out only $4M of the $8M he is owed.

Why couldn't you just look at it as $4M now and $4 off the books in 2009?

because so far it is only $2M. If the White Sox pick up the option, the Reds won't have to pay a cent. But if they don't (likely), the Reds will have to pay $2M of the buyout next year. That is money that I would imagine will be counted towards next year's budget instead of this season's. Am I not seeing it right?

mth123
08-02-2008, 04:46 AM
A couple thoughts here. Belisle will probably be non-tendered and even if not he'll probably get no $1 Million Raise. If he goes that is a $1.2 Million savings. Coffey is in a similar situation. He won't get a raise of $1 Million. He'll either be a break even at his current Million or a $1 Million savings. I'm guessing Burton will be a super two. As a 2007 Rule 5 guy, he was technically on the roster all year and has been this year as well. He may jump to a Million bucks or so.

Unless the Reds uncover some good internal options at certain spots, keeping Dunn at say $15 Million next year, Arroyo, Cordero etc at predetermined raises and a adding a decent catcher (Bengie Molina approximated in this example), a low dollar #5 starter (say a Kevin Correia or a Boof Bonser) and a starting caliber OF who can help the offense and hopefully play CF (Say Coco Crisp) for a collection of prospects, the payroll would need to be about $90 Million to fill the roster decently. The Reds may be able to back some of that down if they could deal Freel and Gonzalez at some point for salary relief. Those guys and $3 Million of dead money are really causing the problem IMO. Dont forget that the rest of the 40 man will cost something as fill in for injuries etc will make at least the minimum while active.




Pitchers Name Salary in thousands
1 Harang 11000
2 Volquez 500
3 Arroyo 9500
4 Cueto 400
5 Acquisition 1500
6 Masset/etc. 400
7 Herrera/etc. 400
8 Roenicke/Maj 400
9 Lincoln 1000
10 Bray 500
11 Burton 600
12 Cordero 12000

Catchers
13 Acquisition 6000
14 Hanigan 400

Infield
15 Votto 500
16 Phillips 4750
17 Keppinger 400
18 EdE 2000
19 Gonzalez 5375

Outfield
20 Dunn 15000
21 Acquisition 5000
22 Bruce 400
23 Hairston 1000
24 Dickerson 400
25 Freel 4000

'26-40 Others 3000

Buyouts
1 Griffey 2000
2 Stanton 500
3 Castro 100
4 Ross 375

Total Total 2009 89400

BuckeyeRedleg
08-02-2008, 08:44 AM
ARB ELIGIBLE RAISES:

7. Encarnacion...guess: $4,000,000
8. Lincoln....guess: $1,000,000
9. Majewski...guess: $1,000,000
10. Belisle....guess: $1,000,000 (if not released)
11. Coffey...guess: $1,000,000 (if not released)


total possible: +$8,000,000

OK, I messed up this category. Instead of projected raises, I listed what they should expect to make via arbitration or agreed upon one-year deals.

So, EE would be getting somewhere around a $3.5M raise. Lincoln would be $500K, Majewski $600K, and Belisle and Coffey no raise if they are even kept around (which I doubt). So if Coffey and Belisle are kept, this projection would be only $4.6M in raises. If they are let go, it would still be $4.6M, but there would be $2.00M saved for a net changed of $2.6M. Either way, this frees up between $3.4M and $5.4M more than I originally thought.

There's your Affeldt and Hairston money!

Again, re-signing Dunn, Affeldt, and Hairston should mean the payroll stays the same. Adding those three, puts the roster at 24, so any free agent additions would have to be made in conjuction with ridding ourselves of some dead weight contracts anyway. I agree if we can get anyone to take Freel (for anything) it would be great. I also think they should dangle Arroyo and Cordero and hope to trade one of them to a contender as this season wears on.

mth123
08-02-2008, 09:28 AM
OK, I messed up this category. Instead of projected raises, I listed what they should expect to make via arbitration or agreed upon one-year deals.

So, EE would be getting somewhere around a $3.5M raise. Lincoln would be $500K, Majewski $600K, and Belisle and Coffey no raise if they are even kept around (which I doubt). So if Coffey and Belisle are kept, this projection would be only $4.6M in raises. If they are let go, it would still be $4.6M, but there would be $2.00M saved for a net changed of $2.6M. Either way, this frees up between $3.4M and $5.4M more than I originally thought.

There's your Affeldt and Hairston money!

Again, re-signing Dunn, Affeldt, and Hairston should mean the payroll stays the same. Adding those three, puts the roster at 24, so any free agent additions would have to be made in conjuction with ridding ourselves of some dead weight contracts anyway. I agree if we can get anyone to take Freel (for anything) it would be great. I also think they should dangle Arroyo and Cordero and hope to trade one of them to a contender as this season wears on.

I don't think EdE will make $4 Million next season. If so, he could be dealt. The Reds could come in at about the same payroll if they re-sign Dunn and make no big $ adds. Maybe a cheap starter and a low dollar catcher. I still think it will take around $90 Million to compete unless they can dump Freel and Gonzalez. I think $80 Million is a realistic budget number. Walt will need to be creative and if he has to dump any of his other higher dollar guys, he'll just have more holes to fill.

I was wrong about Burton being eligible for arb. Super 2 is two plus years not 2 full years. Brain Lock.

SunDeck
08-02-2008, 09:40 AM
Isn't that the gambit of every team betting the house on youth? Incidentally, I'm not all that sold on this team's youth (outside of Cueto and Volquez).



I would probably throw Bruce and Votto in there, but I understand your point. It just shows how difficult it is to build a ball club from scratch, which is really what the Reds have been tasked with doing in the last 3-4 years. My take on the Reds youth is that they are an indication of better and brighter things to come if they can stay on this track, developing the major league club from the draft level on up. The decline of Homer Bailey is a pretty strong indication that this club is improving, if you ask me. He is struggling and he is clearly not the "sure thing" that he was two years ago, but isn't it a relief to know that the Reds have alternatives in the pipe? It's a steep and long climb out of baseball purgatory.

BuckeyeRedleg
08-02-2008, 09:56 AM
I don't think EdE will make $4 Million next season. If so, he could be dealt.

What do you think EE will make?

mth123
08-02-2008, 09:58 AM
What do you think EE will make?

First year of arb. Poor defender. I'm guessing $2 Million or so.