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OnBaseMachine
08-02-2008, 03:13 PM
Not surprising considering most of us have said Valaika's future is at second base.

This is from the Billings Gazette blogs:

Stayed late at the office today so donít have many pregame notes. Sports editor Mike Zimmer was telling me today though that Reds director of player development Terry Reynolds was on XM Radio today talking pretty glowingly about Chris Valaika (Mustangs, 2006), Todd Frazier (í07), Neftali Soto (in Billings this year before being promoted to Dayton) as well as Juan Francisco (9 games in Ď06). According to Zimmer, Reynolds said Valaika and Frazier, who both played shortstop in Billings, are projected to move to the right side of the diamond sometime in the future; Valaika to second base and Frazier to first base.

http://www.billingsgazette.net/h/blogs/mustangs/

camisadelgolf
08-02-2008, 03:37 PM
I'm more intrigued by Frazier being destined for first base. I always thought left field would be his place. Maybe Dunn will leave and Votto goes to left? I doubt it, but I guess anything's possible.

Kingspoint
08-02-2008, 03:38 PM
Not surprising considering most of us have said Valaika's future is at second base.

This is from the Billings Gazette blogs:

Stayed late at the office today so donít have many pregame notes. Sports editor Mike Zimmer was telling me today though that Reds director of player development Terry Reynolds was on XM Radio today talking pretty glowingly about Chris Valaika (Mustangs, 2006), Todd Frazier (í07), Neftali Soto (in Billings this year before being promoted to Dayton) as well as Juan Francisco (9 games in Ď06). According to Zimmer, Reynolds said Valaika and Frazier, who both played shortstop in Billings, are projected to move to the right side of the diamond sometime in the future; Valaika to second base and Frazier to first base.

http://www.billingsgazette.net/h/blogs/mustangs/That doesn't make any sense. Yonder Alonzo is going to be the REDS' 1st Basemen and he'll start at 1st Base before Frazier gets to start at 1st Base.

OnBaseMachine
08-02-2008, 03:50 PM
I'm more intrigued by Frazier being destined for first base. I always thought left field would be his place. Maybe Dunn will leave and Votto goes to left? I doubt it, but I guess anything's possible.

I think Yonder Alonso is destined for first base with either Todd Frazier or Neftali Soto at third base. The lesser defensive player of those two probably moves to left field again creating a log jam with Votto.

camisadelgolf
08-02-2008, 04:05 PM
I think Yonder Alonso is destined for first base with either Todd Frazier or Neftali Soto at third base. The lesser defensive player of those two probably moves to left field again creating a log jam with Votto.

That's what I was thinking all along, but assuming Reynolds is speaking the truth, I really wonder what the Reds' plan is.

TOBTTReds
08-02-2008, 04:41 PM
That doesn't make any sense. Yonder Alonzo is going to be the REDS' 1st Basemen and he'll start at 1st Base before Frazier gets to start at 1st Base.

Don't count your chickens before they hatch. I think Yonder will sign, but why would the farm director talk like he has if he may not be in the plans?

SMcGavin
08-02-2008, 04:57 PM
Frazier to 1B is the bigger news to me. As a guy who came up playing SS, I'd have to think he is good enough to stick defensively at 3B or a corner OF slot.

TOBTTReds
08-02-2008, 05:16 PM
Frazier to 1B is the bigger news to me. As a guy who came up playing SS, I'd have to think he is good enough to stick defensively at 3B or a corner OF slot.

He's a big dude, but he could play 3B. My guess is this means they may want EdE there for a while. Frazier could be in the bigs in less than 2 years and 3B may not be open.

Kingspoint
08-02-2008, 06:58 PM
I think Yonder Alonso is destined for first base with either Todd Frazier or Neftali Soto at third base. The lesser defensive player of those two probably moves to left field again creating a log jam with Votto.

I figured that Soto would eventually be the Shortstop if he pushes Valaika enough. I hope Brandon Phillips isn't going anywhere and that three years from now, they resign him again.

redhawk61
08-02-2008, 07:31 PM
They need to move Brandon to SS and start next year with Kepp at 2nd till Valaika gets enough AB's at AAA then bring him up.

Will M
08-02-2008, 08:56 PM
They need to move Brandon to SS and start next year with Kepp at 2nd till Valaika gets enough AB's at AAA then bring him up.

that is a plan. plus the kid we got in the Jr trade hits lefty and can play 2b. maybe a platoon of Kep/Richar at 2b to start 2009?

princeton
08-03-2008, 11:30 AM
Frazier to 1B is the bigger news to me. As a guy who came up playing SS, I'd have to think he is good enough to stick defensively at 3B or a corner OF slot.

MUCH bigger, I agree. Trade title should be altered.

I do note that Frazier played SS last night. I expect that he'll be in a lot of infield positions next year, too-- UNLESS Dunn doesn't sign, in which case I'm expecting OF time.

Reds probably hope to sign Dunn to a 4-5 year deal, and Bruce is in RF for the next 5 years, so LF and RF are occupied. that leaves first or third. Votto's cheaper-- I'd expect that they'd keep him (until Alonso is ready) and move EdE if they like Frazier there. But maybe the Reds are thinking the other way-- move Votto, keep EdE.

that might leave a Frazier/Dorn semi-platoon to serve as a very productive first base placeholder until Alonso arrives (if he even signs). if Alonso pushes Frazier off the bag, Frazier can then do the Rich Aurilia thing and play a lot of places.

fearofpopvol1
08-03-2008, 12:00 PM
MUCH bigger, I agree. Trade title should be altered.

I do note that Frazier played SS last night. I expect that he'll be in a lot of infield positions next year, too-- UNLESS Dunn doesn't sign, in which case I'm expecting OF time.

Reds probably hope to sign Dunn to a 4-5 year deal, and Bruce is in RF for the next 5 years, so LF and RF are occupied. that leaves first or third. Votto's cheaper-- I'd expect that they'd keep him (until Alonso is ready) and move EdE if they like Frazier there. But maybe the Reds are thinking the other way-- move Votto, keep EdE.

that might leave a Frazier/Dorn semi-platoon to serve as a very productive first base placeholder until Alonso arrives (if he even signs). if Alonso pushes Frazier off the bag, Frazier can then do the Rich Aurilia thing and play a lot of places.

There also could be a scenario where either or both or traded to fill gaps elsewhere (SS, C, CF, P etc). Walt, unlike previous regimes, is not scared to move prospects to fill holes.

princeton
08-03-2008, 01:36 PM
Walt, unlike previous regimes, is not scared to move prospects to fill holes.

Walt would have dealt Bruce for Bedard?

yikes

SMcGavin
08-03-2008, 02:36 PM
Votto's cheaper-- I'd expect that they'd keep him (until Alonso is ready) and move EdE if they like Frazier there.

This would be my preferred route. I feel like a guy with Frazier's background would be a bit wasted at 1B. Plus Frazier to 3B might solve our current defensive problem there, and we already have a decent defender at 1B in Votto. I will agree though, if Dunn does not get resigned, we will probably see at lot of Frazier in LF next year at AA/AAA.

redhawk61
08-03-2008, 02:47 PM
If Dunn isn't resigned I wouldn't be surprised to see Votto be the LF next year and a guy like Doug Mientkiewicz being brought in to man 1b till Fraizier is ready. Then once Alonso is ready, Fraizer gets moved over to 3rd and Alonso is your 1st baseman.
So:
opening day goes by posistions (If I were in charge)
1b Mientkiewicz
2b Kepp/Valiaka(If he makes the club out of ST)
SS Brandon
3b EE
LF Votto
CF Aquired CF
RF Bruce
C Hanigan/Ross(would like an upgrade of course)

Around All Star Break
1b Fraizier
2b Valaika
SS BP
3b EE
etc.

and September call ups (cause I firmly believe Yonder will be a fast riser once he signs)
1b Yonder
2b Valaika
SS BP
3b Fraizer
CF. Stubbs

Of course this is all based on if guys like Valaika, Fraizer, Stubbs, and Yonder performing

camisadelgolf
08-03-2008, 02:57 PM
The Reds might also feel that guys like Shaun Cumberland, Chris Dickerson (haha), and/or Danny Dorn could be ready to contribute fairly son.

SMcGavin
08-03-2008, 03:04 PM
Valaika has a .786 OPS in AA, I think talk of clearing room for him at second in the ML lineup is premature to say the least.

redhawk61
08-03-2008, 03:04 PM
The Reds might also feel that guys like Shaun Cumberland, Chris Dickerson (haha), and/or Danny Dorn could be ready to contribute fairly son.
Agreed, regardless of how you feel about Dunn I highly doubt he will be resigned, He is just going to be way too expensive when we have so much coming through the pipeline. Take the comp picks, add some more talent in the minors, preferably pitching, and move on. A short term Doug Mientkiewicz at 1b and Votto as the LF will allow for a lot of roster flexibility during the year next year once guys like Fraizer, Yonder, and Valaika are ready.

redhawk61
08-03-2008, 03:06 PM
Valaika has a .786 OPS in AA, I think talk of clearing room for him at second in the ML lineup is premature to say the least.
he is at .786 b/c he is in a horrible slump at the moment, might have come out of it last night going 3-6. The entire Chatt team couldn't hit to save their lives this past week againsit the Mississippi Braves. Before then he was in the mid .800's I believe with an average around .318 or so

fearofpopvol1
08-03-2008, 03:06 PM
Walt would have dealt Bruce for Bedard?

yikes

Or perhaps Krivsky not moving Bailey a year and a half ago? Bruce was not what I was referring to anyhow. Just in a general sense that if you look at previous regimes, most of them did not (want to) move prospects.

If you have a surplus at 1 position, why not trade with another team who has a surplus at the other positions where you need help? It's very simple. You can try to move players to unnatural positions, but it doesn't always work as planned (see Austin Kearns tries to move to 3B (http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m1208/is_46_228/ai_n6362510)).

SMcGavin
08-03-2008, 03:09 PM
he is at .786 b/c he is in a horrible slump at the moment, might have come out of it last night going 3-6. The entire Chatt team couldn't hit to save their lives this past week againsit the Mississippi Braves. Before then he was in the mid .800's I believe with an average around .318 or so

So if you take out his bad games, his stats look better? On the whole Valaika has been a big hunk of mediocre ever since he left Billings.

redhawk61
08-03-2008, 03:12 PM
So if you take out his bad games, his stats look better? On the whole Valaika has been a big hunk of mediocre ever since he left Billings.
No I am just saying he has been a lot better than you are giving him credit for
all together this year he is hitting .317/.362/.484 OPS .846.....I don;t really consider that mediocre. Srry if he's not putting up Jay Bruce numbers.

SMcGavin
08-03-2008, 03:16 PM
No I am just saying he has been a lot better than you are giving him credit for
all together this year he is hitting .317/.362/.484 OPS .846.....I don;t really consider that mediocre. Srry if he's not putting up Jay Bruce numbers.

Last year he tanked, I had pretty much written him off. This year he had an awesome month and a half at Sarasota which got my attention. I was hoping he'd prove me wrong and keep up the great work at Chattanooga. He hasn't.

redhawk61
08-03-2008, 03:18 PM
Last year he tanked, I had pretty much written him off. This year he had an awesome month and a half at Sarasota which got my attention. I was hoping he'd prove me wrong and keep up the great work at Chattanooga. He hasn't.
He has kept up the good work at Chatt. Again once he gets back in a groove after his recent slump his OPS will be back to the mid. 800's. The slump brought down his stats and doesn't show how solid he has been thus far this year, granted you can;t take out those stats, but all players slump which hurts their numbers obviously

OnBaseMachine
08-03-2008, 03:23 PM
I've been very pleased with the way Valaika has played at Chattanooga.

SMcGavin
08-03-2008, 04:27 PM
Valaika since Billings
Dayton: 307/353/493 - 846 OPS
Sarasota: 295/341/429 - 770 OPS
Chattanooga: 297/348/439 - 787 OPS

For comparison's sake, everyone's favorite bust who supposedly can't hit a lick:
Dayton: 270/364/421 - 785 OPS
Sarasota: 261/366/406 - 772 OPS
Chattanooga: 323/417/387 - 804 OPS

Valaika turns 23 next week, if you see a major league starter in those numbers you must be looking at something different than me. Not saying he can't improve and make it, but he's not the kind of guy you clear out a spot for in your future plans (as opposed to a Frazier or Alonso).

OnBaseMachine
08-03-2008, 04:33 PM
Valaika's numbers compare favorably to Michael Young of Texas, a guy who Valaika reminds me a lot of.

SMcGavin
08-03-2008, 04:47 PM
Valaika's numbers compare favorably to Michael Young of Texas, a guy who Valaika reminds me a lot of.

Young has been able to put up almost the exact same numbers at the major league level as he did at the minor league level. You really want to count on Valaika pulling off the same rare feat?

By the way Daniel Dorn's numbers compare favorably to those of Jason Bay. Sean Henry has been way better than Mike Cameron to this point of their career. Those are about as relevant as a comparison between Young/Valaika.

OnBaseMachine
08-03-2008, 05:10 PM
I'll just say that I've been more than pleased with the way Valaika has hit and I'm confident he'll be a good major league hitter, and scouts agree that.

mth123
08-03-2008, 07:18 PM
Valaika since Billings
Dayton: 307/353/493 - 846 OPS
Sarasota: 295/341/429 - 770 OPS
Chattanooga: 297/348/439 - 787 OPS

For comparison's sake, everyone's favorite bust who supposedly can't hit a lick:
Dayton: 270/364/421 - 785 OPS
Sarasota: 261/366/406 - 772 OPS
Chattanooga: 323/417/387 - 804 OPS

Valaika turns 23 next week, if you see a major league starter in those numbers you must be looking at something different than me. Not saying he can't improve and make it, but he's not the kind of guy you clear out a spot for in your future plans (as opposed to a Frazier or Alonso).

I'm with you. BP recently added a feature that takes a guy's current stats and projects him as a major leaguer now and at his peak (age 27). Vailaka's now numbers based on his AA season - .261/.304/.401/.705. HIs peak numbers look a little better at .281/.333/.438/.771. IMO he'd need to be Pokey Reese on defense to be more than a stopgap player. I suspect he'll be more powerful/less speedy (and hopefully a lot smarter) version of Ryan Freel. Which is ok while its cheap. He may end up a regular for a few years in a Ronnie Belliard kind of way (better comp than Young I think but Belliard had better OBP skills in the minors).

One thing that really struck me was Valaika's showing last fall in the Hawaiin league. He really struggled and didn't draw his first walk until well into the season. The Hawaiin league isn't a real high level league, but team's seem to put players there that at least have some reason for being interesting. It really made me wonder if Valaika will really struggle as he moves up the ladder and sees fewer "ham and eggers" on the mound.

I think Valaika's a 'tweener with not enough glove to justify his bat. He's having a decent year, but he's a guy I'd definitely shop in a prospects for player(s) deal.

OnBaseMachine
08-03-2008, 07:24 PM
Scouts seem to love Valaika's bat. There was a piece on Valaika from BP a few months back where scouts told Kevin Goldstein they thought Valaika's bat could play anywhere on the diamond, including a corner outfield spot. They could be wrong but I agree that he's going to be a good hitter. He was crushing the ball in AA up until a week and a half ago. A recent slump doesn't chance my opinion of him.

mth123
08-03-2008, 07:37 PM
Scouts seem to love Valaika's bat. There was a piece on Valaika from BP a few months back where scouts told Kevin Goldstein they thought Valaika's bat could play anywhere on the diamond, including a corner outfield spot. They could be wrong but I agree that he's going to be a good hitter. He was crushing the ball in AA up until a week and a half ago. A recent slump doesn't chance my opinion of him.

All the more reason that he may be desirable on the market. Given the numbers, I'd let some one else take the gamble that he'll exceed what the numbers are showing.

IslandRed
08-03-2008, 08:11 PM
I'm with you. BP recently added a feature that takes a guy's current stats and projects him as a major leaguer now and at his peak (age 27). Vailaka's now numbers based on his AA season - .261/.304/.401/.705. HIs peak numbers look a little better at .281/.333/.438/.771. IMO he'd need to be Pokey Reese on defense to be more than a stopgap player.

An OPS of .771 with solid defense at a middle-infield position would make him more than a stopgap. Based on stats as of today, that would put him ninth among MLB second basemen (just behind Brandon Phillips) or tied for sixth among shortstops.

I will agree that his bat needs to be good because his defense projects as solid but not exceptional.

SMcGavin
08-04-2008, 01:31 AM
All the more reason that he may be desirable on the market. Given the numbers, I'd let some one else take the gamble that he'll exceed what the numbers are showing.

Completely agree. If someone thinks he's a surefire MLB starter, let's make a deal.

And Valaika's bat profiling as a MLB corner outfielder is drink-the-kool-aid crazy.

_Sir_Charles_
08-05-2008, 10:25 PM
They need to move Brandon to SS and start next year with Kepp at 2nd till Valaika gets enough AB's at AAA then bring him up.

I fully support that plan. In fact, I'd like to go one further. Get Adam Rosales up here and plant him down at third. If Dunner re-signs...then move Edwin. If he opts for free agency...move Edwin to first (negates his throwing woes) and Votto to LF (this'll have to be done eventually...and I'd rather do it sooner than later).

1B-Edwin
2B-Kepp...until Valaika's ready
SS-Phillips
3B-Rosales
LF-Votto
CF-Dickerson
RF-Bruce
C-Hannigan
Dunn Free Agent

If Dunner stays....

1B-Votto
2B-Kepp/Valaika
SS-Phillips
3B-Rosales
LF-Dunn
CF-Dickerson
RF-Bruce
C-Hannigan
Edwin traded

Nasty_Boy
08-07-2008, 11:36 AM
I listened to Terry Reynolds interview with John Sickles on XM Friday and I don't recall him saying Frazier was moving to 1st. I just remember him saying something like they were going to let him play off the position and that he's a good athlete that could handle many positions.

princeton
08-07-2008, 11:53 AM
I listened to Terry Reynolds interview with John Sickles on XM Friday and I don't recall him saying Frazier was moving to 1st. I just remember him saying something like they were going to let him play off the position and that he's a good athlete that could handle many positions.

the Reds need to promote Frazier's bat

if his glove is keeping him in A ball, then they either need to ignore the glove for now, or move him to a position where it won't bother them.

dougdirt
08-07-2008, 12:02 PM
I listened to Terry Reynolds interview with John Sickles on XM Friday and I don't recall him saying Frazier was moving to 1st. I just remember him saying something like they were going to let him play off the position and that he's a good athlete that could handle many positions.
Unfortunately thats probably one of the reasons the Reds have such a terrible defense.... they play so many guys that are 'athletic' play positions that they just can't play.

daBeast
08-08-2008, 12:22 AM
lets trade cordero for chase utley the philles need a closer and we need a futur seconbasman who cud be chase utly

Kingspoint
08-08-2008, 01:16 AM
Unfortunately thats probably one of the reasons the Reds have such a terrible defense.... they play so many guys that are 'athletic' play positions that they just can't play.


Exactly. I want "players".

SoTxRedsFan
08-13-2008, 08:29 PM
You guys think Valaika could be ready sometime next season to play 2B for the big squad?

crazyredfan40
08-13-2008, 08:31 PM
You guys think Valaika could be ready sometime next season to play 2B for the big squad?

Yeah but how is he going to get pt with Phillips there...Unless you play one of them at SS...

SoTxRedsFan
08-13-2008, 10:39 PM
Yeah but how is he going to get pt with Phillips there...Unless you play one of them at SS...

Yeah, I'm just hoping that the Reds end up moving BP to SS after this season.

Will M
09-26-2008, 11:55 PM
Question for those who follow the minor leagues. Can Valaika play SS?
For example is a 2010 infield of Alonso-Phillips-Valaika-EE going to cut it defensively?
IMO EE could improve but he is never going to be Scott Rolen at 3B. If Valaika projects to be a subpar defensive SS then we will have problems.

If Valaika is going to be a second baseman in the bigs then I would like Jocketty to shop either him or Phillips this offseason. I suspect Phillips has more value now than he will this time next year. He did not have a good year at the plate this year. If Valaika struggles in AAA his trade value plummets ( see one Homer Bailey ). So maybe the time to decide is now.

Thoughts?

RedsManRick
09-26-2008, 11:57 PM
In my mind I've always pictured him as a Jeff Kent type. Not enough range for SS, solid at 2B, and plenty of bat to play.

OnBaseMachine
09-27-2008, 12:16 AM
Valaika would probably be a slightly below average to average shortstop at best.

mth123
09-27-2008, 05:34 AM
Valaika is one of my top choices for the Reds to deal. I think he'll be more Jeff Keppinger than Jeff Kent, and while I think that makes for an OK career as a offensive utilty guy, he'll be below average defensively on either side of 2B IMO. Some guys have to be dealt from the minors this offseason to shore up areas of the the organization that are paper thin from the big leagues all the way down. The team needs to target SS (guys who really project to play the spot in the majors and have enough bat to not be Juan Castro), Catcher and a mid rotation innings guy who preferably is less fly ball heavy than guys like Cueto, Harang and Arroyo.

I think Valaika will prove to be pedestrian offensively and problematic defensively. I don't think his value will be much higher than it is now.

Will M
09-27-2008, 11:48 AM
this is what i had understood - he is a 2B not a SS. if so then i think either he or Phillips could go this offseason. as i posted a while back i have a suspicion that Phillips goes, Hairston plays 2B next year & Valaika is the second baseman mid 2009 or in 2010.

Bip Roberts
09-27-2008, 01:35 PM
I'd let him play himself out of the position at the majors since hes already spent all of the minors as a SS.

kpresidente
09-27-2008, 03:24 PM
I like Danny Richar better. Same OBP, same power, more speed, successful at a higher level.

For that matter, I'll take a platoon.

RedsManRick
09-27-2008, 03:41 PM
BP has Frazier as the #1 SS worth watching in the Hawaiian league:


Todd Frazier, Waikiki (Reds). Coming off of a .291/.368/.485 season split between Low- and High-A, there is little doubt that Frazier can hit. The big question is what position he'll end up at; he's fringy at best as a shortstop, and he struggled at third as well. He needs to stick at one of those two to project well, because at first base or left field (two positions where he also spent time this year), his bat projects as merely average.

OnBaseMachine
09-27-2008, 03:43 PM
Earlier in the year BP said Frazier's bat would project anywhere on the diamond, now it's merely average?

IslandRed
09-27-2008, 09:37 PM
Earlier in the year BP said Frazier's bat would project anywhere on the diamond, now it's merely average?

Not really inconsistent. League average is still a meaningful projection. It's just not the "potential star" projection his bat has if he sticks on the left side of the infield.

SMcGavin
09-28-2008, 12:48 AM
Not really inconsistent. League average is still a meaningful projection. It's just not the "potential star" projection his bat has if he sticks on the left side of the infield.

Yeah, average at 1B or LF is still a .800+ OPS. I didn't take that BP comment as a knock on Frazier.