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princeton
08-07-2008, 10:56 AM
we've got endless threads in the minor league forum about the Reds no. 1 pick from the 2006 draft (let's just say that the guy is a lightning rod much like Dunn), and it's about time to drag them over here, because the Reds have a huge need for a righthanded hitting CFer who gets on base and covers a lot of ground.

Drew Stubbs turns 24 years old in October, which is an age at which a hitter often shows his biggest improvement. It's always good to be in the majors when you hit 24.

he's often compared to Mike Cameron-- for his defense,speed and ability to get on base, but also for his low batting average/high strikeouts. He's a big guy but hasn't shown Cameron's pop yet.

here's probably the key for his immediate future: he's gotten on base 37 percent of the time in his minor league career. That would play well up here.

he's only gotten 90 plate appearances above the A level, but... there's a major league need.

I figure that Cincy doesn't see him until a year from September but... did I say that there's a major league need?

BRM
08-07-2008, 11:08 AM
Does anyone else hear crickets?

Cyclone792
08-07-2008, 11:19 AM
http://ackk.files.wordpress.com/2008/05/sobchak-781317.jpg

The Reds are entering a world of pain if they're relying on Drew Stubbs for 2009.

A world of pain, dude.

Falls City Beer
08-07-2008, 11:21 AM
The Reds should contact Pat Watkins to mentor Stubbs.

flyer85
08-07-2008, 11:23 AM
The Reds should contact Pat Watkins to mentor Stubbs.or John Oliver ... at least during the day.

Falls City Beer
08-07-2008, 11:27 AM
or John Oliver ... at least during the day.

Wayne must have attended the Dave Littlefield School of Offensive Drafting.

BRM
08-07-2008, 11:28 AM
The Reds should contact Pat Watkins to mentor Stubbs.

Watkins had more power. Can you teach power?

edabbs44
08-07-2008, 11:34 AM
Wayne must have attended the Dave Littlefield School of Offensive Drafting.

I'm not doing cartwheels over his drafting of pitching either.

princeton
08-07-2008, 11:35 AM
I'm thinking after he's moved up to Louisville for its playoff games, you bring him up to bat ninth in a few September games, spotting him against specific pitchers. Then on to Arizona and/or winter leagues.

if the OBP stays up, maybe you've got something. For a couple of years, maybe he's nothing more than Bret Butler on growth hormone. That'd work.

Falls City Beer
08-07-2008, 11:40 AM
Stubbs' game might bore pitchers into BBs.

flyer85
08-07-2008, 11:41 AM
IMHO, until he shows the power he won't be able to sustain the OBP. If pitchers have nothing to fear they won't walk him ... and his minor league numbers show he has some serious holes in the zone.

OnBaseMachine
08-07-2008, 11:41 AM
I think this thread has potential for 10+ pages.

princeton
08-07-2008, 11:42 AM
IMHO, until he shows the power he won't be able to sustain the OBP. If pitchers have nothing to fear they won't walk him ... and his minor league numbers show he has some serious holes in the zone.


yep.

so-- let's see if you're right.

princeton
08-07-2008, 11:43 AM
I think this thread has potential for 10+ pages.

but maybe it'll finally kill off the endless minor league thread

Falls City Beer
08-07-2008, 11:43 AM
If Stubbs had been drafted in, say, the third or fourth round, this thread wouldn't exist.

No one would raise an eyebrow about the guy if he had been drafted anywhere but first.

OnBaseMachine
08-07-2008, 11:44 AM
Wayne must have attended the Dave Littlefield School of Offensive Drafting.

And yet his 2007 draft was rated among the best and the production is backing that up. Even the 2006 draft is looking like it will produce a handful of major leaguers not even including Stubbs.

BRM
08-07-2008, 11:44 AM
I think this thread has potential for 10+ pages.

Very educational and entertaining pages.

Falls City Beer
08-07-2008, 11:46 AM
And yet his 2007 draft was rated among the best and the production is backing that up. Even the 2006 draft is looking like it will produce a handful of major leaguers not even including Stubbs.

Name one MLB product from his drafts. A great draft produces some near-immediate results.

OnBaseMachine
08-07-2008, 11:50 AM
Name one MLB product from his drafts. A great draft produces some near-immediate results.

Dude it's only been two years since his first draft. Eight of his 2006 draftees have already reach Double-A which is a pretty good number. Roenicke is currently in AAA and should reach the majors anytime now.

PuffyPig
08-07-2008, 11:52 AM
IMHO, until he shows the power he won't be able to sustain the OBP. If pitchers have nothing to fear they won't walk him ... and his minor league numbers show he has some serious holes in the zone.


I agree there aren't many major league comparables of players who maintain a high OBA without much power and lots of k's.

But there are some.

B.J. Upton has this line:

.266 .381 .394 .774

which is comaprable to Stubbs 2008 line.

Upton's on pace for about 10 HR's, 100 walks and about 150 K's.

Falls City Beer
08-07-2008, 11:52 AM
Dude it's only been two years since his first draft. Eight of his 2006 draftees have already reach Double-A which is a pretty good number. Roenicke is currently in AAA and should reach the majors anytime now.

Yonder Alonso will beat any Wayne draftee to the majors. (Though it might be with another team).

Ltlabner
08-07-2008, 11:52 AM
Very educational and entertaining pages.

And I'm sure there will not be one single repeat of an argument that's already been made 50 times before.

BRM
08-07-2008, 11:53 AM
Yonder Alonso will beat any Wayne draftee to the majors. (Though it might be with another team).

Nah. Roenicke will be in the majors in a month or so.

nate
08-07-2008, 11:53 AM
Name one MLB product from his drafts. A great draft produces some near-immediate results.

How many players drafted in 2006/2007 are playing in the major league right now?

I'd bet it's less than 1%.

Falls City Beer
08-07-2008, 11:54 AM
Nah. Roenicke will be in the majors in a month or so.

Doesn't look like Jocketty likes him too much (or he'd certainly be here already). That's not a good sign.

Falls City Beer
08-07-2008, 11:55 AM
How many players drafted in 2006/2007 are playing in the major league right now?

I'd bet it's less than 1%.

How many players from the drafts make it to the majors and stay? 1%?

OnBaseMachine
08-07-2008, 11:56 AM
Yonder Alonso will beat any Wayne draftee to the majors. (Though it might be with another team).

Wow. Do you want to bet on that? I'd be willing to bet anything that you're wrong on this one.

BRM
08-07-2008, 11:56 AM
Doesn't look like Jocketty likes him too much (or he'd certainly be here already). That's not a good sign.

Good point. I still think he gets a September callup though. It may be to simply shine him up as trade bait but he'll be up nonetheless.

nate
08-07-2008, 11:57 AM
Yonder Alonso will beat any Wayne draftee to the majors. (Though it might be with another team).

Doubling down?

Falls City Beer
08-07-2008, 11:57 AM
Wow. Do you want to bet on that? I'd be willing to bet anything that you're wrong on this one.

Roenicke's the closest (by a ton), and my guess is that he'll be trade fodder.

BRM
08-07-2008, 11:58 AM
There's a chance Alonso will beat the crop of AA "prospects" to the majors. I'll give you that.

flyer85
08-07-2008, 12:00 PM
yep.

so-- let's see if you're right.as long as you go in with the attitude that your writing off 2009 as a building year. I have a hard time believing this organization is willing to do that.

OnBaseMachine
08-07-2008, 12:01 PM
Roenicke's the closest (by a ton), and my guess is that he'll be trade fodder.

I think Roenicke's got a chance to be an impact type reliever, so I doubt we see him traded. Behind that are seven other picks from the 2006 draft who have already reach Double-A. I agree Alonso will be a quick riser but IMO it's a lock someone from the 2006 draft reaches the majors before Alonso.

Falls City Beer
08-07-2008, 12:01 PM
There's a chance Alonso will beat the crop of AA "prospects" to the majors. I'll give you that.

He'll beat Stubbs.

BRM
08-07-2008, 12:02 PM
He'll beat Stubbs.

Little doubt on that one. Unless the FO over-promotes him, like they did with Bailey.

BRM
08-07-2008, 12:03 PM
I think Roenicke's got a chance to be an impact type reliever, so I doubt we see him traded. Behind that are seven other picks from the 2006 draft who have already reach Double-A. I agree Alonso will be a quick riser but IMO it's a lock someone from the 2006 draft reaches the majors before Alonso.

I can see Alonso beating all 7 of those guys to the majors. Dorn or Valaika may beat him but I wouldn't call it a certainty.

Falls City Beer
08-07-2008, 12:04 PM
I can see Alonso beating all 7 of those guys to the majors. Dorn or Valaika may beat him but I wouldn't call it a certainty.

The problem that Jocketty's going to run into is that cuspy guys like Dorn and Valaika aren't good trade bait.

westofyou
08-07-2008, 12:05 PM
Harry Craft with power, has his uses at a low cost.

OnBaseMachine
08-07-2008, 12:06 PM
I can see Alonso beating all 7 of those guys to the majors. Dorn or Valaika may beat him but I wouldn't call it a certainty.

IMO it's a lock that Roenicke reaches the majors before Alonso but the rest are far from locks, though I think Dorn or Valaika have a chance to beat him.

BRM
08-07-2008, 12:08 PM
IMO it's a lock that Roenicke reaches the majors before Alonso but the rest are far from locks, though I think Dorn or Valaika have a chance to beat him.

I agree. Roenicke will beat him but it's up in the air on the rest of the '06 crew.

redsmetz
08-07-2008, 12:13 PM
How many players drafted in 2006/2007 are playing in the major league right now?

I'd bet it's less than 1%.

As of right now, out of 2955 players drafted in 2006 and 2007, only seven have made the major leagues thus far: six from 2006 and one from 2007
The one from last year's draft is the Nationals Ross Detweiler who pitched one inning last September and is now pitching in High A (leave it to Jim Bowden to jump the gun again!). That's way less than 1% (somewhere between two and three tenths of 1%)

princeton
08-07-2008, 12:14 PM
as long as you go in with the attitude that your writing off 2009 as a building year. I have a hard time believing this organization is willing to do that.

I would think that they've finally conceded 2008, so let's get him up here and show him what he's got to work on, and see if he's close. you might have your no. 9 hitter for all of 2008

M2 will soon demonstrate that just last week I posted that Louisville's too advanced for Stubbs :)

redsmetz
08-07-2008, 12:15 PM
Doesn't look like Jocketty likes him too much (or he'd certainly be here already). That's not a good sign.

The fact that he's not here yet is the evidence that Jocketty isn't to keen on him? I can't see that leap.

flyer85
08-07-2008, 12:15 PM
I would think that they've finally conceded 2008, so let's get him up here and show him what he's got to work on, and see if he's close. you might have your no. 9 hitter for all of 2008
using Jocketty's past history as a barometer I'd say he is far more likely to be traded than brought to the majors.

princeton
08-07-2008, 12:20 PM
using Jocketty's past history as a barometer I'd say he is far more likely to be traded than brought to the majors.

it's a good point.

another good point from M2 last week: time at Louisville (even a bad showing) might give Stubbs more trade value

time in Cincy amplifies that trade value?

Highlifeman21
08-07-2008, 12:33 PM
http://ackk.files.wordpress.com/2008/05/sobchak-781317.jpg

The Reds are entering a world of pain if they're relying on Drew Stubbs for 2009.

A world of pain, dude.

I can't be alone in thinking that I'd much rather have Corey Patterson be the everyday CF in 2009 than Drew Stubbs, can I?

NC Reds
08-07-2008, 12:49 PM
I can't be alone in thinking that I'd much rather have Corey Patterson be the everyday CF in 2009 than Drew Stubbs, can I?

I think you're alone there. :eek: I can't take another year of Corey Patterson-Baker. At least Stubbs would get optioned to AAA if he failed miserably.

cincrazy
08-07-2008, 12:58 PM
And yet his 2007 draft was rated among the best and the production is backing that up. Even the 2006 draft is looking like it will produce a handful of major leaguers not even including Stubbs.

HOW DARE YOU! Did you not know that complimenting Wayne Krivsky is considered a near sin in these parts?

*Heavy sarcasm alert*

cincrazy
08-07-2008, 12:58 PM
I can't be alone in thinking that I'd much rather have Corey Patterson be the everyday CF in 2009 than Drew Stubbs, can I?

If those two are my choices, I'd rather just leave center field completely vacant.

Highlifeman21
08-07-2008, 01:07 PM
If those two are my choices, I'd rather just leave center field completely vacant.

It's quite probable that Stubbs would OPS South of Patterson, although his OBP would most probably be higher.

Until Stubbs can consistently put bat on ball, his defense can only take him so far.

Given the options of Patterson vs Stubbs, I wish we still had Denorfia.

dougdirt
08-07-2008, 01:08 PM
Drew Stubbs to start 2009 in Cincinnati? No, probably not. Drew Stubbs by July 2009 in Cincinnati? Yeah, I can see that one.

OnBaseMachine
08-07-2008, 01:16 PM
Given the options of Patterson vs Stubbs, I wish we still had Denorfia.

You mean the same Chris Denorfia who is currently hitting .240/.279/.308 - .587 in the hitter friendly PCL? Oh, and he's 28 years old.

Ltlabner
08-07-2008, 01:19 PM
Given the options of Patterson vs Stubbs, I wish we still had Denorfia.



# YEAR NAME PA EqA OBP SLG VORP RAR RAP
1. 2008 Chris Denorfia 58 .244 .339 .300 -0.0 0.8 -1.7

Your man-love of Deno not-withstanding, not sure where these sorts of numbers are any real improvement (other than going from intergalatic hella-suck to mere sucktastic suck).

Cyclone792
08-07-2008, 01:23 PM
I can't be alone in thinking that I'd much rather have Corey Patterson be the everyday CF in 2009 than Drew Stubbs, can I?

I'd rather have Stubbs, but that's not saying much at all.

Bronson Arroyo is liable to out-hit both of them; maybe he can play center field on his non-pitching days. It wouldn't be the first time a former BoSox player could be converted to a position player. ;)

flyer85
08-07-2008, 01:27 PM
I am not worried about CF per se, IMO Bruce can handle it, the Reds likely need two OFs in 2009 that can bring an increase in offensive productivity to the team.

Chip R
08-07-2008, 01:27 PM
I'd rather have Stubbs, but that's not saying much at all.

Bronson Arroyo is liable to out-hit both of them; maybe he can play center field on his non-pitching days. It wouldn't be the first time a former BoSox player could be converted to a position player. ;)


He played SS in HS. How much you want to bet he has better range than Kepp or JH, Jr.?

Cyclone792
08-07-2008, 01:35 PM
He played SS in HS. How much you want to bet he has better range than Kepp or JH, Jr.?

I wouldn't be shocked. I think our beer league softball shortstop might have more range than those two.

westofyou
08-07-2008, 01:36 PM
I wish we still had Denorfia.

Why?

Does he have a good CD collection?

M2
08-07-2008, 01:40 PM
did I say that there's a major league need?

So? I need $20 million so I can retire to a life of extreme leisure.

Does that mean I should start looking inside my wallet for it just in case? After all, it has been known to contain money.

princeton
08-07-2008, 01:55 PM
So? I need $20 million so I can retire to a life of extreme leisure.

Does that mean I should start looking inside my wallet for it just in case? After all, it has been known to contain money.

"Honey, I forgot to tell you-- I bought this Microsoft stock 20 years ago. I suppose you worked two decades on the graveyard shift for no good reason. Kind of funny, eh?"

RedsManRick
08-07-2008, 02:00 PM
When Stubbs can do in AA what Dickerson is doing in AAA, I'll get excited. Until then, I see no reason to suggest that Stubbs has passed Dickerson on the future CF depth chart nor any reason to think Stubbs has a higher ceiling.

M2
08-07-2008, 02:02 PM
"Honey, I forgot to tell you-- I bought this Microsoft stock 20 years ago. I suppose you worked two decades on the graveyard shift for no good reason. Kind of funny, eh?"

Drafting a player for immediate need is more like buying Digital 20 years ago.

dougdirt
08-07-2008, 02:05 PM
So? I need $20 million so I can retire to a life of extreme leisure.

Does that mean I should start looking inside my wallet for it just in case? After all, it has been known to contain money.

If you find that, let me know how you got it to work. I too could use 20 mill.

princeton
08-07-2008, 02:11 PM
Mother, you're always coddling that boy

give him to me for a month. He'll work hard-- maybe become a man.

M2
08-07-2008, 02:13 PM
Mother, you're always coddling that boy

give him to me for a month. He'll work hard-- maybe become a man.

No one's coddling Stubbs, he's just not very good.

princeton
08-07-2008, 02:29 PM
No one's coddling Stubbs, he's just not very good.

I like his OBP. though I've seen better, I haven't seen it from any of our CFers

even if he struggles, JimBo will give us a great slugger for him.

M2
08-07-2008, 02:32 PM
On a more serious note, why should the Reds care if their CF bats RH or LH?

The team has exactly four everyday players (e.g. guys you might actually want in the lineup on a daily basis) contractually required to return next season - Jay Bruce, Brandon Phillips, Joey Votto and Edwin Encarnacion. The two LH bats and two RH bats.

The demand for RH CF has taken on snipe hunt characteristics.

flyer85
08-07-2008, 02:33 PM
I likeven if he struggles, JimBo will give us a great slugger for him.Does he have any of those?

BTW, JB seems to be looking at a defense and speed model to compete in that spacious new park.

M2
08-07-2008, 02:38 PM
I like his OBP. though I've seen better, I haven't seen it from any of our CFers

even if he struggles, JimBo will give us a great slugger for him.

Dickerson's is better. Heisey's has been better in the FSL (and he can play CF). David Sappelt's is pretty close.

I hate to pollute empty assertion with facts, but Stubbs isn't standing out in the OB department and he's flat out lagging when it comes to power.

Trading him to JimBo, now there's a plan. If only JimBo had something to trade.

princeton
08-07-2008, 02:44 PM
Dickerson's is better.

yep, I read that too. it's on the back of his AARP card.

Roy Tucker
08-07-2008, 02:51 PM
Drafting a player for immediate need is more like buying Digital 20 years ago.

All my stock options are dust in the wind.

M2
08-07-2008, 02:54 PM
yep, I read that too. it's on the back of his AARP card.

He's two years older than Stubbs, who won't be ready for at least another two years. Go figure.

Though if you want to make Stubbs into Dickerson's platoon vs. LHPs caddy, then have at it.

dougdirt
08-07-2008, 02:57 PM
He's two years older than Stubbs, who won't be ready for at least another two years. Go figure.

Though if you want to make Stubbs into Dickerson's platoon vs. LHPs caddy, then have at it.

Thats an awful big leap to suggest Stubbs won't be ready for at least 2 more years.

flyer85
08-07-2008, 03:02 PM
Thats an awful big leap to suggest Stubbs won't be ready for at least 2 more years.I would agree ... guys that OPS in the 700s in A ball generally don't make it all. If he wasn't a first round pick we wouldn't be discussing him at all.

M2
08-07-2008, 03:04 PM
I would agree ... guys that OPS in the 700s in A ball generally don't make it all. If he wasn't a first round pick we wouldn't be discussing him at all.

Beat me to it.

Aside from that, everyone tends to think kids are closer to producing in the majors than they really are. I was promised Homer Bailey would be an above average starting pitcher in the bigs this year too. Didn't happen. Never was going to happen.

PuffyPig
08-07-2008, 03:13 PM
I was promised Homer Bailey would be an above average starting pitcher in the bigs this year too. Didn't happen. Never was going to happen.

Who promised you that?

M2
08-07-2008, 03:18 PM
Who promised you that?

Oh, there were more than a few posters here who made that claim.

And according to Baseball America, his ETA was last year (until it wasn't).

PuffyPig
08-07-2008, 03:27 PM
Oh, there were more than a few posters here who made that claim.

And according to Baseball America, his ETA was last year (until it wasn't).

There's a world of difference between a players expected arrival in the majors and him becoming an above average starter.

BA makes predictions (and Bailey's TA was 2007). They don't make promises.

M2
08-07-2008, 03:32 PM
There's a world of difference between a players expected arrival in the majors and him becoming an above average starter.

BA makes predictions (and Bailey's TA was 2007). They don't make promises.

True, BA only intimates promise. It never actually admits a kid might not be ready to succeed when he first hits the majors and that it might be years before he is ready.

registerthis
08-07-2008, 03:32 PM
There's a world of difference between a players expected arrival in the majors and him becoming an above average starter.

Yeah, but come on. It's becoming increasingly clear that Bailey's career is on the fast track to Brandon Larsonville.

Homer Bailey was the MAN in the Reds' farm system, or so we were consistently told. He was untouchable, untradeable, can't-miss, the savior of the Reds pitching rotation, etc. Until, as M2 noted, he wasn't. Whether or not it was a "promise" is semantics--every Reds fan was led to believe that Homer Bailey was pitching gold waiting to be struck. Now....er, not so much.

dougdirt
08-07-2008, 03:33 PM
so Homer Bailey will never be a good pitcher and Drew Stubbs won't be in the majors until he is 26 years old? Got the lottery numbers for tonight?

flyer85
08-07-2008, 03:35 PM
Whether or not it was a "promise" is semantics--every Reds fan was led to believe that Homer Bailey was pitching gold waiting to be struck. Now....er, not so much.I guess now he's pitching pyrite.

M2
08-07-2008, 03:38 PM
so Homer Bailey will never be a good pitcher and Drew Stubbs won't be in the majors until he is 26 years old? Got the lottery numbers for tonight?

Never said either of those things.

Bailey isn't a good pitcher (which is pretty obvious at this point) and won't be one in the majors for a few years, if ever. Likewise Drew Stubbs looks to be a few years away from being able to make positive everyday lineup contributions in the majors, if ever.

Neither is ready. Neither is particularly close. Neither is guaranteed one way or the other.

If the team wants to draw up plans for 2009 with those two in feature roles then that's just going to be a case of bad planning.

Dan
08-07-2008, 03:49 PM
but maybe it'll finally kill off the endless minor league thread

You were that kid that liked throwing gasoline on fires, weren't you? :thumbup:

Highlifeman21
08-07-2008, 03:49 PM
Why?

Does he have a good CD collection?

I liked what I saw with Denorfia in the minors and during his cup of coffee with the Reds.

At least he showed me what he could do and what he could be. Stubbs has shown me what he isn't and only if I use my imagination do I have any idea what he might never be.

princeton
08-07-2008, 03:51 PM
if you want to make Stubbs into Dickerson's platoon vs. LHPs caddy, then have at it.

the fact that the two are mirror images is definitely amusing. Who would out-K-rate whom?

flyer85
08-07-2008, 03:57 PM
the fact that the two are mirror images is definitely amusing. Who would out-K-rate whom?I find it interesting that Jay Bruce's 150+ K rate for a full season hasn't set off alarm bells with the Strikeout Police.

BRM
08-07-2008, 04:07 PM
I find it interesting that Jay Bruce's 150+ K rate for a full season hasn't set off alarm bells with the Strikeout Police.

Give it time, flyer. Give it time.

M2
08-07-2008, 04:09 PM
the fact that the two are mirror images is definitely amusing. Who would out-K-rate whom?

You'd definitely have whiff consistency with those two.

TRF
08-07-2008, 04:10 PM
The Reds should contact Pat Watkins to mentor Stubbs.

I was thinking about this the other day, and came up with Brady Clark. Clark was a guy that could get you a decent OBP, occasional pop. Stubbs likely has more speed.

Of course Clark's minor league numbers were waaaaaay better than Stubbs', though Stubbs was 2 years younger.

KronoRed
08-07-2008, 04:18 PM
I find it interesting that Jay Bruce's 150+ K rate for a full season hasn't set off alarm bells with the Strikeout Police.

Patience, when he doesn't win the triple crown next year you will start to hear the murmurs.

Cyclone792
08-07-2008, 04:20 PM
I find it interesting that Jay Bruce's 150+ K rate for a full season hasn't set off alarm bells with the Strikeout Police.

That's a product of not hitting the majors until late May. The Strikeout Police aren't intelligent enough to deal with rates per full seasons; they'll just look at big league totals.

Expect the sirens to be loud and constant next season.

OnBaseMachine
08-07-2008, 04:28 PM
I liked what I saw with Denorfia in the minors and during his cup of coffee with the Reds.

At least he showed me what he could do and what he could be. Stubbs has shown me what he isn't and only if I use my imagination do I have any idea what he might never be.

Again I'll point out that Chris Denorfia is 28 years old and is hitting a lowly .240/.279/.308 - .587 in a hitter friendly AAA league. That's worse than Corey Patterson.

TRF
08-07-2008, 04:30 PM
When Stubbs can do in AA what Dickerson is doing in AAA, I'll get excited. Until then, I see no reason to suggest that Stubbs has passed Dickerson on the future CF depth chart nor any reason to think Stubbs has a higher ceiling.

Dickerson is an outstanding comp, and perhaps ceiling for Stubbs. As many others have stated, if he were a 3rd round pick we wouldn't be talking about him.

fearofpopvol1
08-07-2008, 04:50 PM
Wayne must have attended the Dave Littlefield School of Offensive Drafting.

If I'm not mistaken, Terry Reynolds handled the drafts while Wayne was here and even when Dan-O was around.

So, if this draft turns out to be great, it isn't because of Walt (who openly said he was letting Terry and staff handle the draft).

princeton
08-07-2008, 05:00 PM
If I'm not mistaken, Terry Reynolds handled the drafts while Wayne was here and even when Dan-O was around.

Terry Reynolds only did the two O'Brien drafts. WayneK reassigned him to development.

_Sir_Charles_
08-07-2008, 05:08 PM
I can see Alonso beating all 7 of those guys to the majors. Dorn or Valaika may beat him but I wouldn't call it a certainty.

I've noticed how everyone is simply assuming that Alonso will be a major leaguer. Why is there NO DOUBT? And for that matter...why are we bothering to project the kid when he hasn't even signed yet? I haven't heard anything that even hints that we're CLOSE to signing him yet. Until he's in the fold...I'm not counting on him.

BRM
08-07-2008, 05:14 PM
I've noticed how everyone is simply assuming that Alonso will be a major leaguer. Why is there NO DOUBT? And for that matter...why are we bothering to project the kid when he hasn't even signed yet? I haven't heard anything that even hints that we're CLOSE to signing him yet. Until he's in the fold...I'm not counting on him.

I don't assume any minor leaguer will be a sure-fire major leaguer. It's simply a best guess. If Alonso signs, his bat has a good chance of getting to the bigs before any of the bats drafted in 2006. That's really all FCB and I were saying.

registerthis
08-07-2008, 05:17 PM
so Homer Bailey will never be a good pitcher and Drew Stubbs won't be in the majors until he is 26 years old? Got the lottery numbers for tonight?

I don't believe anyone has said any of those things. But let's not kid ourselves, either: neither one of them is remotely close to major league ready.

flyer85
08-07-2008, 05:18 PM
An organization will find a place to play a guy that can hit. Good defenders are a dime and a dozen. Hitting is the crucial skill that delineates players as they move up.

_Sir_Charles_
08-07-2008, 05:21 PM
I don't assume any minor leaguer will be a sure-fire major leaguer. It's simply a best guess. If Alonso signs, his bat has a good chance of getting to the bigs before any of the bats drafted in 2006. That's really all FCB and I were saying.

Yeah, I probably shouldn't have quoted you per se. I was just commenting on the general feeling and comments about Alonso. He hasn't even signed or taken a minor league swing yet. A board full of JimBo's jumping the gun. :O)

princeton
08-07-2008, 05:26 PM
A board full of JimBo's jumping the gun. :O)


the ex-Mrs. Bowden cited JimBo for premature evaluation in her divorce papers.

I'm surprised if any of you still have women :D

Team Clark
08-08-2008, 05:02 PM
I think Terry Reynolds has done a tremendous job in both of his assigned roles. Not enough credit has been given to him in carrying out these duties.

princeton
08-08-2008, 05:19 PM
I think Terry Reynolds has done a tremendous job in both of his assigned roles. Not enough credit has been given to him in carrying out these duties.

Jay Bruce and a whole lotta nothing out of 2 drafts as scouting director, but Jay Bruce overcomes all

as a development director, the jury's still out. Homer looked better in HS. Reynolds can't seem to decide on positions for players (Todd Frazier? Chris Valaika? Neftali Soto? many more). but guys are getting to AA and succeeding there, which is the main goal in development, because from AA anything can happen. most notably, Johnny Cueto might become first homegrown starter in 20 freaking years

Chip R
08-08-2008, 05:22 PM
as a development director, the jury's still out.

Improvement on Tim Naehring?

princeton
08-09-2008, 09:32 AM
Improvement on Tim Naehring?

Team Clark has an opinion on that.

and while I've got Team Clark on the thread, let's get his input on his former position: Catcher. The Reds don't have one. They don't really have one in the entire system. there's a kid in low A, who apparently shows poor aptitude for the position, but in this farm system we wait for a kid to "play his way off of a position."

so instead, I read that a guy like Craig Tatum is getting good ink as a major league catcher, even though he can't hit a lick. And do you know why that is? it's because today's major league catchers can't hit a lick.

it'd be nice if the Reds would buck that trend and create a catcher that can hit

now, they happen to have a variety of guys with good arms (catcher's arms?) and supposedly great instincts-- Todd Frazier and Adam Rosales jump to mind. And the Reds just can't figure out where to play these guys. Instead, they have them in the middle infield, waiting for both to "play his way off of a position."

Do I have to connect the dots?

I recall a catcher from years ago, BTW-- Terry Steinbach. He was a third baseman with no real chance to start in the majors, when a decisive farm director named Jocketty moved him behind the plate...

what do you think, TC? how long does it take for a really bright young guy with great instincts, hands, feet (but maybe the wrong body type) to learn the position? How bad would it be to have a guy that calls a good game, frames, blocks pitches, throws out runners-- but maybe isn't a block of granite? how many plate collisions per year would we be conceding?

Benihana
08-09-2008, 12:23 PM
Team Clark has an opinion on that.

and while I've got Team Clark on the thread, let's get his input on his former position: Catcher. The Reds don't have one. They don't really have one in the entire system. there's a kid in low A, who apparently shows poor aptitude for the position, but in this farm system we wait for a kid to "play his way off of a position."

so instead, I read that a guy like Craig Tatum is getting good ink as a major league catcher, even though he can't hit a lick. And do you know why that is? it's because today's major league catchers can't hit a lick.

it'd be nice if the Reds would buck that trend and create a catcher that can hit

now, they happen to have a variety of guys with good arms (catcher's arms?) and supposedly great instincts-- Todd Frazier and Adam Rosales jump to mind. And the Reds just can't figure out where to play these guys. Instead, they have them in the middle infield, waiting for both to "play his way off of a position."

Do I have to connect the dots?

I recall a catcher from years ago, BTW-- Terry Steinbach. He was a third baseman with no real chance to start in the majors, when a decisive farm director named Jocketty moved him behind the plate...

what do you think, TC? how long does it take for a really bright young guy with great instincts, hands, feet (but maybe the wrong body type) to learn the position? How bad would it be to have a guy that calls a good game, frames, blocks pitches, throws out runners-- but maybe isn't a block of granite? how many plate collisions per year would we be conceding?

Geovany Soto was an infielder in the minors before being moved to catcher. I think Russell Martin may have been one as well, although I'm not sure on that one.

I like the idea of trying Frazier or Rosales at catcher. It may be a little late for Rosales, seeing as he's already 25, and can provide the luxury of playing every infield position, but I like the idea of Frazier behind the plate. Another interesting guy to consider for the job, who has a cannon arm and has shown some promise with the bat but needs some extra time in the minors to refine his discipline is Juan Francisco.

Regardless, it looks as if our corner infield positions are locked up for a while with Encarnacion, Votto, and (possibly) Alonso. Guys like Waring and Soto will eventually provide organizational depth there as well. So let's try a couple of these guys like Frazier and Francisco at a position that may eventually put them on the fast track to the big club.

*BaseClogger*
08-10-2008, 02:00 AM
Geovany Soto was an infielder in the minors before being moved to catcher. I think Russell Martin may have been one as well, although I'm not sure on that one.

I believe Brandon Inge was drafted as a pitcher too.

I don't like the idea of taking a guy like Frazier with a lot of promise and messing him up by putting him behind the plate. However, a young guy like Francisco who has such a clear deficiency which is going to take time to develope anyways is a good candidate to be placed behind the dish...

princeton
08-14-2008, 09:51 AM
Stubbs debuted last night in Louisville with a double and HR.

he seems to be improving rapidly. center field tagteam?

TRF
08-14-2008, 10:12 AM
Stubbs debuted last night in Louisville with a double and HR.

he seems to be improving rapidly. center field tagteam?

He had a hot first game at Chatt too. then was pretty bad until his last 6-7 games. He's an adjustment guy, meaning once pitchers get a good book on him it seems to take him 70+ AB's to adjust back.

I hope he succeeds, I just see him as a 4th OF.

Steve4192
08-14-2008, 10:39 AM
He's an adjustment guy, meaning once pitchers get a good book on him it seems to take him 70+ AB's to adjust back.

Isn't that a good thing?

I've always found that it is the guys who can't make adjustments that end up being busts. Stubbs seems to put up the same OBP driven 750ish OPS no matter where he plays.

If he can do that in the majors while playing a GG caliber CF, he will be a valuable player. Not the kind of guy I'd want to sign to a lucrative long-term contract, but certainly the type of guy who I would ride for for six years until he becomes eligible for free agency.

fearofpopvol1
08-14-2008, 10:45 AM
You could platoon him in CF with Dickerson if worse comes to worse. I don't think that would be a horrible idea.

TRF
08-14-2008, 10:52 AM
Isn't that a good thing?

I've always found that it is the guys who can't make adjustments that end up being busts. Stubbs seems to put up the same OBP driven 750ish OPS no matter where he plays.

If he can do that in the majors while playing a GG caliber CF, he will be a valuable player. Not the kind of guy I'd want to sign to a lucrative long-term contract, but certainly the type of guy who I would ride for for six years until he becomes eligible for free agency.

1st problem is he has no sustained success at ANY level. 2nd problem is I don't think he can sustain that OBP with his lack of power. 52 points of his OPS at AA came from his first game. He's being aggressively pushed.

Shine him up Walt.

BuckeyeRedleg
08-14-2008, 10:55 AM
When there is not one other legit CF prospect in a system with desperate need of one, I don't think you even cosider shining up the only one you have, especially when you have $2M invested in him.

fearofpopvol1
08-14-2008, 10:57 AM
When there is not one other legit CF prospect in a system with desperate need of one, I don't think you even cosider shining up the only one you have, especially when you have $2M invested in him.

Chris Dickerson is a nobody?

Team Clark
08-14-2008, 11:06 AM
Team Clark has an opinion on that.

and while I've got Team Clark on the thread, let's get his input on his former position: Catcher. The Reds don't have one. They don't really have one in the entire system. there's a kid in low A, who apparently shows poor aptitude for the position, but in this farm system we wait for a kid to "play his way off of a position."

so instead, I read that a guy like Craig Tatum is getting good ink as a major league catcher, even though he can't hit a lick. And do you know why that is? it's because today's major league catchers can't hit a lick.

it'd be nice if the Reds would buck that trend and create a catcher that can hit

now, they happen to have a variety of guys with good arms (catcher's arms?) and supposedly great instincts-- Todd Frazier and Adam Rosales jump to mind. And the Reds just can't figure out where to play these guys. Instead, they have them in the middle infield, waiting for both to "play his way off of a position."

Do I have to connect the dots?

I recall a catcher from years ago, BTW-- Terry Steinbach. He was a third baseman with no real chance to start in the majors, when a decisive farm director named Jocketty moved him behind the plate...

what do you think, TC? how long does it take for a really bright young guy with great instincts, hands, feet (but maybe the wrong body type) to learn the position? How bad would it be to have a guy that calls a good game, frames, blocks pitches, throws out runners-- but maybe isn't a block of granite? how many plate collisions per year would we be conceding?

I am a big Tatum fan myself. I have not seen him catch lately to gauge progress but from what I hear he is progressing nicely. He learns from his mistakes and that is what the minor leagues is all about.

How long does it take to convert to catcher? Catching, from my point of view is about hands, confidence, rhythm and flexibility. If you are a good receiver and can handle 2 seamers, sinkers, sliders and splitters without losing a thumb you have something to build on. Confidence behind the plate is paramount. Without it you lose everything. Quickly.

Catching is like hitting in that you only have a little time to react. If you're "thinking" while the pitch is on the way you're screwed. Plain and simple. If you're hands are loose, you're ready to receive and in rhythm you can really start to excel. You have to be able to repeat your setup and be able to react. Similar to pitching in that regard. It sounds easy but let me tell you...it's not.

Flexibility allows you to expand your blocking lanes, and have the confidence to call pitches you know you will not "catch". I can remember watching Ed Taubensee catch Scott Williamson. You could almost see Tauby want to cry when he put down a 3 for the splitter. Far too many ended up going to the backstop. He didn't have the flexibility from recurring back injuries or the confidence to catch a tough major league pitch.

My estimation is 2 years behind the plate for someone who is "gifted" with really good hands and quick feet. If you are cerebral and have a great arm an organization may push you a bit. One thing that can not be rushed is game management. You have to experience that all for yourself. Making tough pitch selections, having success and getting your pitcher lit up because YOU are making mistakes. It's all part of the process. You need to see literally thousands upon thousands of pitches to really start refining the process. The process can go smooth if you have a farm system that stays on the same page throughout each level. They buy into a particular philosophy and stick with it. Helps everyone's development. Catcher's get a good idea of what their staff has "stuff" wise and what a pitcher can throw with confidence. A good catcher can get an average pitcher through a tough game. A bad catcher can ruin a great pitcher's day in a hurry.

A catcher must be a master at communication. Handling the staff, handling an umpire, talking to the pitching coach and manager without selling himself out or throwing his pitcher's under the bus. Knowing when to take a day off so that your skills do not suffer. Catching 120 games is quite a grind. Knowing all the bunt coverages, signs and tendencies. Especially in the minor leagues where there is no such thing as an advance scouting report. Watching the opposing hitter get in the box. Where is he standing? What zone is he getting through on his practice swing? (Most guys take their favorite cut during practice swings) Does the hitter seem aggressive, is he always taking first pitch? Does he move himself around in the box? Why is my pitching coach wanting to throw a change up here? :D Where am I in the order? Has my pitcher shown all of his pitches to the first 9 the first time through? Is the runner on second tipping me? A lot goes on back there. A LOT. This is the reader's digest version of what a young catcher might need to learn on the fly. 2 years maybe 4. Depends on the skill set. Personally I like Div I catcher's from college. Those guys have good routines, are physically mature and can handle a staff. JMO.

Team Clark
08-14-2008, 11:11 AM
Isn't that a good thing?

I've always found that it is the guys who can't make adjustments that end up being busts. Stubbs seems to put up the same OBP driven 750ish OPS no matter where he plays.

Making adjustments in professional baseball keeps you from working the Sports/Recreation desk at Wal mart.

BuckeyeRedleg
08-14-2008, 11:13 AM
Chris Dickerson is a nobody?

Actually, if you read the minor league board you'll see I'm a huge fan of Dickerson.

I said legit CF prospect. Up until Chris started tearing it up, we had pretty much nothing except Stubbs as far as prospects in CF go. And Dickerson is 26 and with the big club now. We'll see how he does, but there is no denying that CF has been a black hole in this system and it would be foolish to consider getting rid of one of the only CF prospects that you have and one that you have over $2M invested.

Team Clark
08-14-2008, 11:14 AM
Jay Bruce and a whole lotta nothing out of 2 drafts as scouting director, but Jay Bruce overcomes all

as a development director, the jury's still out. Homer looked better in HS. Reynolds can't seem to decide on positions for players (Todd Frazier? Chris Valaika? Neftali Soto? many more). but guys are getting to AA and succeeding there, which is the main goal in development, because from AA anything can happen. most notably, Johnny Cueto might become first homegrown starter in 20 freaking years

I understand where you are coming from but I have to tell you. The guy does one heck of a job. I just can't stress that enough. He's cleaned up an awful mess in the department itself. This was a job no one wanted. Wayne had to go in house because literally people were REFUSING interviews. The few that did accept made Naehring look like a saint. Terry reluctantly made this switch and has done, IMO, a VERY GOOD job. JMO.

fearofpopvol1
08-14-2008, 11:20 AM
Actually, if you read the minor league board you'll see I'm a huge fan of Dickerson.

I said legit CF prospect. Up until Chris started tearing it up, we had pretty much nothing except Stubbs as far as prospects in CF go. And Dickerson is 26 and with the big club now. We'll see how he does, but there is no denying that CF has been a black hole in this system and it would be foolish to consider getting rid of one of the only CF prospects that you have and one that you have over $2M invested.

Hey, you were the one that said we had no other CF options, not me!

Dickerson may have been off the radar until recently, but now he is on the radar so I think he has to be included in these conversations.

I'm all for seeing what Stubbs can do and pushing him to try to succeed, but I think the Reds need to be weary about him as well.

princeton
08-14-2008, 11:26 AM
I can remember watching Ed Taubensee catch Scott Williamson. You could almost see Tauby want to cry when he put down a 3 for the splitter.

all right, you made me laugh

RedsManRick
08-14-2008, 11:27 AM
1st problem is he has no sustained success at ANY level. 2nd problem is I don't think he can sustain that OBP with his lack of power. 52 points of his OPS at AA came from his first game. He's being aggressively pushed.

Shine him up Walt.

If Dickerson shows well, I think it's a very real possibility that our big move of the offseason involves a trade of Stubbs, and possibly Bailey too.

BuckeyeRedleg
08-14-2008, 11:29 AM
Hey, you were the one that said we had no other CF options, not me!


No I didn't. I said "legit CF prospect". At this point Dickerson hasn't proven anything other than he's a 26-year old having a good season in AAA. Stubbs is a 1st round pick and top 100 prospect.

I'm hoping we can use them both, but we need to realize that beggars can't be choosers when ity comes to CF options.

lollipopcurve
08-14-2008, 11:35 AM
If Dickerson shows well, I think it's a very real possibility that our big move of the offseason involves a trade of Stubbs, and possibly Bailey too.

Agreed. Stubbs + Bailey could bring back good value.

I would not be at all surprised if the organization likes Heisey in CF as the leadoff hitter of the future.

fearofpopvol1
08-14-2008, 11:36 AM
No I didn't. I said "legit CF prospect". At this point Dickerson hasn't proven anything other than he's a 26-year old having a good season in AAA. Stubbs is a 1st round pick and top 100 prospect.

Stubbs hasn't proven anything at the major league level either other than he's had some ups and downs through the low minors this year at almost 24 (after being a top 10 pick in the draft).

He may be rated higher, but he's proven no more than Dickerson has. In fact, by my estimation, he's proven less since Dickerson has shown he can actually play at AAA.

Team Clark
08-14-2008, 11:41 AM
all right, you made me laugh

:thumbup: The real laugh was watching Williamson scream expletives into his glove after a runner would advance.

RedsManRick
08-14-2008, 12:02 PM
No I didn't. I said "legit CF prospect". At this point Dickerson hasn't proven anything other than he's a 26-year old having a good season in AAA. Stubbs is a 1st round pick and top 100 prospect.

I'm hoping we can use them both, but we need to realize that beggars can't be choosers when ity comes to CF options.

I'll be the first to say I'm shocked at how well Stubbs has held up so far. After the success of Jeff Samardzija in Chicago, being aggressively promoted despite a lack of performance, I'm increasingly willing to take a cautious eye towards minor league numbers. Here is a year-for-year age comparison of Stubbs and Dickerson.

While they were pretty even through A ball, it appears Stubbs is advancing quite quickly whereas Dickerson tripped up a little in the FSL (A+), as most hitters do, and then progress slowly by surely from there on out. You have to wonder whether it was purely a scouting decision or Stubbs' pedigree is driving his promotion.

Given that both guys are superb defenders, it's hard not to see the comparisons.



Age Level AB AVG OBP SLG SB/CS

21
Stubbs RK 210 .252 .368 .400 19/23
Dickerson Rk 201 .244 .367 .403 9/13

22
Stubbs A 497 .270 .364 .421 23/38
Dickerson A 314 .303 .400 .408 27/41
A+ 45 .200 .308 .244 3/ 4

23
Stubbs A+ 303 .261 .366 .406 27/35
AA 92 .315 .400 .402 3/ 4
Dickerson A+ 436 .236 .325 .383 19/22

24
Stubbs N/A ----------------2009-----------------
Dickerson AA 389 .242 .355 .424 21/27

25
Stubbs N/A ----------------2010-----------------
Dickerson AA 114 .272 .325 .351 7/ 9
AAA 354 .260 .361 .435 23/28

26
Stubbs NA ----------------2011-----------------
Dickerson AAA 349 .287 .384 .479 26/33

Total
Stubbs, 23 1106 .269 .369 .415 72/100 (72%)
Dickerson, 26 2202 .260 .360 .415 135/177 (76%)

BuckeyeRedleg
08-14-2008, 12:22 PM
Stubbs hasn't proven anything at the major league level either other than he's had some ups and downs through the low minors this year at almost 24 (after being a top 10 pick in the draft).

He may be rated higher, but he's proven no more than Dickerson has. In fact, by my estimation, he's proven less since Dickerson has shown he can actually play at AAA.

Dickerson's also 2.5 years older which in the "prospect world" is pretty significant. Also, just over two years ago Stubbs was a 1st round pick that cost $2M.

I'm not sure if you think I'm arguing who is better between the two. I'm just saying the Reds would be wise to hold on to their investment, because there is not much else in the system in CF. This can't be denied.

Wasn't Dickerson playing last night in LF anyway?

RedsManRick
08-14-2008, 12:26 PM
Dickerson's also 2.5 years older which in the "prospect world" is pretty significant. Also, just over two years ago Stubbs was a 1st round pick that cost $2M.

I'm not sure if you think I'm arguing who is better between the two. I'm just saying the Reds would be wise to hold on to their investment, because there is not much else in the system in CF. This can't be denied.

Wasn't Dickerson playing last night in LF anyway?

Only because CPatt in CF and not wanting to move Bruce out of RF. That was one heck of a defense OF. A Dickerson/Stubbs/Bruce OF, in some combination, would be the best defensive OF in baseball.

BuckeyeRedleg
08-14-2008, 12:31 PM
Agree. I would love nothing more than to have Dickerson and Stubbs both contribute. However, if it's between Dickerson and Stubbs and everything else is equal I think Stubbs will play CF.

bucksfan2
08-14-2008, 12:34 PM
Agree. I would love nothing more than to have Dickerson and Stubbs both contribute. However, if it's between Dickerson and Stubbs and everything else is equal I think Stubbs will play CF.

I thought Stubbs was a bust?

BuckeyeRedleg
08-14-2008, 12:43 PM
I thought Stubbs was a bust?

I think you were wrong.

princeton
08-14-2008, 12:47 PM
I thought Stubbs was a bust?

it's up to him.

the Reds opened some positions, just for him.

OnBaseMachine
08-14-2008, 12:49 PM
I'm hoping like heck Stubbs continues to hit like this and becomes a solid everyday center fielder. Look at the great Reds teams of the past - they always had great athletes up the middle and that's what Drew Stubbs is, a great athlete. Stubbs and Phillips up the middle is a good start. Find a rangy shortstop and you complete the trifecta assuming Stubbs continues to hit.

nate
08-14-2008, 01:05 PM
Only because CPatt in CF and not wanting to move Bruce out of RF. That was one heck of a defense OF. A Dickerson/Stubbs/Bruce OF, in some combination, would be the best defensive OF in baseball.

Heck, that might be one of the best Reds defensive outfields ever.

bucksfan2
08-14-2008, 01:21 PM
I'm hoping like heck Stubbs continues to hit like this and becomes a solid everyday center fielder. Look at the great Reds teams of the past - they always had great athletes up the middle and that's what Drew Stubbs is, a great athlete. Stubbs and Phillips up the middle is a good start. Find a rangy shortstop and you complete the trifecta assuming Stubbs continues to hit.

I find this sentiment ironic. I am always told that BA doesn't matter. BA is a poor way to just a player. Fact of the matter is Stubbs BA does nothing to impress. However his OBP is solid and every step along the way Stubbs continues to put up similar numbers.

Do I think Stubbs will ever scare .300? No. I however think he will have a very productive career hitting around the 250-270 mark with a very good obp. He will play plus D and be very very good on the basepaths. I think too often people tend to discount Stubbs because he doesn't hit for a high average. Or the face that he isn't Lincecum but if he continues to progress through the minors he could be a very productive Red for a number of years.

RedsManRick
08-14-2008, 01:24 PM
I find this sentiment ironic. I am always told that BA doesn't matter. BA is a poor way to just a player. Fact of the matter is Stubbs BA does nothing to impress. However his OBP is solid and every step along the way Stubbs continues to put up similar numbers.

Do I think Stubbs will ever scare .300? No. I however think he will have a very productive career hitting around the 250-270 mark with a very good obp. He will play plus D and be very very good on the basepaths. I think too often people tend to discount Stubbs because he doesn't hit for a high average. Or the face that he isn't Lincecum but if he continues to progress through the minors he could be a very productive Red for a number of years.

I don't think I've heard anybody complaining about his low batting average in isolation. The fear is that his low slugging and low contact rate will pair up to undermine his OBP ability against major league caliber pitching. Thus, he's going to need to either put more balls in play or do more damage with the ones he does put in play in order to sustain his current level of performance. Very few players have had success at the major league level with the combination of strengths and weaknesses he's displayed so far. That's the argument, in a nutshell. Time will tell.

Ltlabner
08-14-2008, 01:28 PM
Heck, that might be one of the best Reds defensive outfields ever.

Speed and Defense, Baby!

By the way, who is this Stubbs guy anyway? Is he new?

dougdirt
08-14-2008, 01:39 PM
Re: Stubbs/Dickerson comps....

I felt like this should be added to what RMR posted, to give a little more to the Dickerson/Stubbs comps



Player Level PA K BB K% BB%
Dickerson RK 240 66 39 27.50% 16.25%
Dickerson A 365 92 51 25.21% 13.97%
Dickerson A+ 557 138 60 24.78% 10.77%
Dickerson AA 588 160 72 27.21% 12.24%
Dickerson AAA 830 233 106 28.07% 12.77%
Totals 2580 689 328 26.71% 12.71%


Player Level PA K BB K% BB%
Stubbs RK 252 64 32 25.40% 12.70%
Stubbs A 575 142 69 24.70% 12.00%
Stubbs A+ 358 82 50 22.91% 13.97%
Stubbs AA 106 21 11 19.81% 10.38%
Stubbs AAA 6 0 1 0.00% 16.67%
Totals 1297 309 163 23.82% 12.57%


Their totals a similar in the K and BB department, although Stubbs strikes out less (in 600 PA, he would strike out 17 fewer times) while walking at a very close rate. The big difference is that at every level so far, Drew Stubbs has lowered the rate at which he strikes out. Obviously, he doesn't have anywhere near the sample at AAA that we need, but from rookie ball through AA, it dropped each time while maintaining a very strong walk rate. Dickerson on the other hand was like a roller coaster, but always very high.So while they are similarish, I think they are on two entirely different paths.

camisadelgolf
08-14-2008, 01:40 PM
If Stubbs can put up a .250/.340/.360 line, we're talking about a slight improvement to the Reds' current production (not to mention what he brings defensively, which is top notch).

If he can put up a .270/.370/.380 line, we're talking about an average offensive center fielder (OPS-wise) with way-above average defense.

If he can hit .280/.380/.410, we could be talking about one of the best center fielders in baseball.

People continue to forget how weak of hitters center fielders typically are. Their defense is very, very important, and that's Stubbs' specialty. Unfortunately, there isn't a publicly-accepted way to measure it, so it continues to not receive the recognition it deserves. If Stubbs has a slightly-below-average OPS, he will make up for it with his defense. He's not being expected to be the guy who makes up for Dunn's lack of power--he's the guy that players like Dunn are supposed to be driving in. He gets on base at a good rate, and he has lots of speed on the base paths.

westofyou
08-14-2008, 01:50 PM
Things that crack me up:

Folks who claim that others say that that batting average doesn't matter, so untrue.

Batting average does matter, it's a reflection of the bat hitting the ball, but it doesn't tell you anymore then the success rate


So if you care to scratch deeper you will want to place it within the context of the whole player and his offensive game, plus a reoccurring year in and year out high batting average tells you that the player is using that tool to sustain his offensive game, that helps weed out the outliers when looking at career averages.

Batting average is an abacus, it has its uses but needs to be combined with slugging and plate discipline to make it less 2 dimensional and more 3 dimensional when you are touting it as a negative or a positive skill set.

What I see is a bunch of people who fail to look beyond the batting average as the sole skill set of a baseball players offensive game.

indy_dave00
08-14-2008, 01:59 PM
I see Drew Stubbs as a .245-.265 hitter , with ability to steal bases and draw walks . He'll probably have 15 hr power and play a solid centerfield . On a good team those are very acceptable numbers. He'll probably be a 7th place hitter on a good Reds team.

Unlike most on here I'm not a big Chris Dickerson fan but he can be a useful 4th or 5th outfielder on a team in the majors , adding speed and outfield defense with occasional power. Even now I think he adds more than Norris Hopper but I don't see a huge upside to Chris.

Team Clark
08-14-2008, 02:19 PM
I was thinking about this the other day, and came up with Brady Clark. Clark was a guy that could get you a decent OBP, occasional pop. Stubbs likely has more speed.

Of course Clark's minor league numbers were waaaaaay better than Stubbs', though Stubbs was 2 years younger.

Mmmmm Brady Clark. Team Clark like Brady Clark. Doesn't know why but he does. :D

Team Clark
08-14-2008, 02:20 PM
Re: Stubbs/Dickerson comps....

I felt like this should be added to what RMR posted, to give a little more to the Dickerson/Stubbs comps



Player Level PA K BB K% BB%
Dickerson RK 240 66 39 27.50% 16.25%
Dickerson A 365 92 51 25.21% 13.97%
Dickerson A+ 557 138 60 24.78% 10.77%
Dickerson AA 588 160 72 27.21% 12.24%
Dickerson AAA 830 233 106 28.07% 12.77%
Totals 2580 689 328 26.71% 12.71%


Player Level PA K BB K% BB%
Stubbs RK 252 64 32 25.40% 12.70%
Stubbs A 575 142 69 24.70% 12.00%
Stubbs A+ 358 82 50 22.91% 13.97%
Stubbs AA 106 21 11 19.81% 10.38%
Stubbs AAA 6 0 1 0.00% 16.67%
Totals 1297 309 163 23.82% 12.57%


Their totals a similar in the K and BB department, although Stubbs strikes out less (in 600 PA, he would strike out 17 fewer times) while walking at a very close rate. The big difference is that at every level so far, Drew Stubbs has lowered the rate at which he strikes out. Obviously, he doesn't have anywhere near the sample at AAA that we need, but from rookie ball through AA, it dropped each time while maintaining a very strong walk rate. Dickerson on the other hand was like a roller coaster, but always very high.So while they are similarish, I think they are on two entirely different paths.


Doug,

If Stubbs were to play well over the next 2-3 weeks would you call him up in Sept?

RedsManRick
08-14-2008, 02:32 PM
Doug,

If Stubbs were to play well over the next 2-3 weeks would you call him up in Sept?

I know this wasn't directed at me, but I don't think you call up Stubbs if for no other reason that Dickerson needs every AB he can get and I don't trust Dusty to prioritize. Stubbs should be plenty challenged in AAA and then an AFL stint.

RedlegJake
08-14-2008, 02:46 PM
I know this wasn't directed at me, but I don't think you call up Stubbs if for no other reason that Dickerson needs every AB he can get and I don't trust Dusty to prioritize. Stubbs should be plenty challenged in AAA and then an AFL stint.

I agree with this. For now let Stubbs get all the ABs in AAA and let Chris get the most ABs in Cincy. Then let them free-for-all in spring.

Team Clark
08-14-2008, 03:06 PM
I know this wasn't directed at me, but I don't think you call up Stubbs if for no other reason that Dickerson needs every AB he can get and I don't trust Dusty to prioritize. Stubbs should be plenty challenged in AAA and then an AFL stint.

I should not have directed this question at one person. I value all of your opinions. I agree that Dickerson should get as many AB's as possible without wearing him down. I wouldn't mind seeing Stubbs get 25 AB's in the bigs but it really serves no purpose. Keep him in AAA and see you in the spring.

TRF
08-14-2008, 04:46 PM
Their totals a similar in the K and BB department, although Stubbs strikes out less (in 600 PA, he would strike out 17 fewer times) while walking at a very close rate. The big difference is that at every level so far, Drew Stubbs has lowered the rate at which he strikes out. Obviously, he doesn't have anywhere near the sample at AAA that we need, but from rookie ball through AA, it dropped each time while maintaining a very strong walk rate. Dickerson on the other hand was like a roller coaster, but always very high.So while they are similarish, I think they are on two entirely different paths.

No, there is another difference, and for a player like Stubbs, one whose ceiling is lower than a Bruce or Dunn, it's what can lead to misleading statements on BOTH sides of the argument.

Dickerson did a level a year, and except for Low A, Stubbs hasn't done that. He's been promoted aggressively. And it wasn't all merit either. He was stinking up A+ before his promotion. He's had no sustained success above Low A. Bruce and Dunn rocketed though several levels of Minor League ball and dominated. Stubbs has had April of this year and that's really it.

The problem is we can't project Stubbs as well as Dickerson at this point because except for A+, Dickerson has gotten better at every level. doug's point about the FSL is valid, but Stubbs wasn't given an opportunity to show he can get on base despite a low SLG in that league. 92 AB's in the SL isn't enought to determine if he can hit for power, but the .402 SLG is a step in the right direction. That stated, 54 points of his OPS are because of his 1st game at AA. Considering the sample is almost 100 AB's, that's a big chunk.

Doc. Scott
08-14-2008, 05:39 PM
Agreed. Stubbs + Bailey could bring back good value.

I would not be at all surprised if the organization likes Heisey in CF as the leadoff hitter of the future.


No disrespect to Heisey, who's certainly done well, but I would be. Very surprised.

reds44
08-14-2008, 05:46 PM
I know this wasn't directed at me, but I don't think you call up Stubbs if for no other reason that Dickerson needs every AB he can get and I don't trust Dusty to prioritize. Stubbs should be plenty challenged in AAA and then an AFL stint.
Play Stubbs in CF and Dickerson in LF. Easy enough.

fearofpopvol1
08-14-2008, 05:47 PM
Dickerson's also 2.5 years older which in the "prospect world" is pretty significant. Also, just over two years ago Stubbs was a 1st round pick that cost $2M.

I'm not sure if you think I'm arguing who is better between the two. I'm just saying the Reds would be wise to hold on to their investment, because there is not much else in the system in CF. This can't be denied.

Wasn't Dickerson playing last night in LF anyway?

This may be true, but at the same time, Stubbs has been pushed through the system pretty quickly with similar performance(s) to Dickerson at similar ages.

Stubbs obviously has more potential since he is younger and obviously, a large chunk of money has been invested in him. He'll receive every chance in the world to succeed (or fail).

westofyou
08-14-2008, 05:48 PM
Play Stubbs in CF and Dickerson in LF. Easy enough.

Stynes and Nunnely 2008

Doc. Scott
08-14-2008, 05:49 PM
Play Stubbs in CF and Dickerson in LF. Easy enough.

You think Dickerson can and would hit consistently enough to start in left? I'm as happy that he's finally gotten the big-league call as anyone, but I seriously doubt that he would be a good enough hitter to play LF in the big leagues every day. The Reds don't now and won't later have enough offense to carry a LF who is likely to top out at a .800 OPS.

That said, I'm all for jettisoning Norris Hopper and plugging Chris in as the 4th OF for 2009, assuming he doesn't pull a Cesar Hernandez or something.

lollipopcurve
08-14-2008, 05:54 PM
No disrespect to Heisey, who's certainly done well, but I would be. Very surprised.

If the organization is objective, Heisey should be right there with Stubbs. But, obviously, the investment made in Stubbs is likely to cloud perceptions.

BuckeyeRedleg
08-14-2008, 05:55 PM
Stubbs obviously has more potential since he is younger and obviously, a large chunk of money has been invested in him. He'll receive every chance in the world to succeed (or fail).

That was pretty much my point from nearly the beginning.

RedsManRick
08-14-2008, 05:58 PM
Play Stubbs in CF and Dickerson in LF. Easy enough.

Easy enough for you me. But if both Patterson and Hairston are healthy, would you want to put money on Dusty sitting both of them for the youngsters?

Falls City Beer
08-14-2008, 06:00 PM
Do folks think both Patterson and Hairston will be re-signed?

RedsManRick
08-14-2008, 06:01 PM
Do folks think both Patterson and Hairston will be re-signed?

I was talking about the remainder of this year. I hope to God Patterson walks and would be willing to consider bringing Hairston back off the bench, but imagine he holds out for an opportunity to compete for a starting job somewhere.

Falls City Beer
08-14-2008, 06:05 PM
I was talking about the remainder of this year. I hope to God Patterson walks and would be willing to consider bringing Hairston back off the bench, but imagine he holds out for an opportunity to compete for a starting job somewhere.

I'd consider all four players (Hair, Patt, Stubb, Dickerson) to be bench ceiling guys. I'm not all that worried about Patt being resigned next year, and likely not Hairston (who's been gimpy as heck). Stubbs and Dickerson will get their chance.

fearofpopvol1
08-14-2008, 06:07 PM
That was pretty much my point from nearly the beginning.

Yes, but your initial post pretty much discounted Dickerson completely, intentional or not.

BuckeyeRedleg
08-14-2008, 06:13 PM
Yes, but your initial post pretty much discounted Dickerson completely, intentional or not.

I said the Reds "system" has no other legit CF prospects. I wasn't really considering Dickerson a prospect since he's no longer in the minors.

And I was responding to the notion that the Reds should just shine Stubbs up to ship him out. It was more of a defense of Stubbs than a dig at Dickerson.

dougdirt
08-14-2008, 07:09 PM
Doug,

If Stubbs were to play well over the next 2-3 weeks would you call him up in Sept?

No, I would tell him great year. Get ready in the offseason, here is your plan for what we want from you, see you in Sarasota with the big boys in February.

reds44
08-14-2008, 08:32 PM
Easy enough for you me. But if both Patterson and Hairston are healthy, would you want to put money on Dusty sitting both of them for the youngsters?
Put Hairston at SS. Easy enough.

Hairston
Stubbs
Bruce
Phillips
Votto
Encarnacion
Dickerson
Hanigan

And away we go

camisadelgolf
08-15-2008, 02:31 AM
Put Hairston at SS. Easy enough.

Hairston
Stubbs
Bruce
Phillips
Votto
Encarnacion
Dickerson
Hanigan

And away we go

I think the Louisville Bats would be thrilled, but I'm not sure they all have options left.

Cedric
08-15-2008, 02:46 AM
I'm just glad someone finally listened to me. Drew was the perfect case for a seemingly rushed promotion. Prop up his value or stick him in cf starting next year. With his raw tools he is much better served putting the same or better numbers in AAA than sarasota. I wouldn't be shocked at all if drew puts up better numbers in cincy than he would anywhere else. Happens more than people think.

Cyclone792
08-15-2008, 08:50 AM
For the rest of this season ...

Chris Dickerson needs to go to center field, Adam Rosales needs to go to shortstop, and Corey Patterson and Jeff Keppinger both need to find their way to the bench.

I don't have much of a problem bumping Stubbs up to Louisville, but right now I'm highly skeptical of the prospect of Drew Stubbs starting in center field for the Reds next April. Unless he blows the International League out of the water next spring, which I'm not expecting, I'd like to see him pile up 500 PAs in Louisville.

princeton
08-15-2008, 08:59 AM
Stubbs: oh for five last night, two K's

IL pitchers needed a game to figure him out ;)

TRF
08-15-2008, 10:21 AM
Stubbs: oh for five last night, two K's

IL pitchers needed a game to figure him out ;)

just sayin'.

Despite my criticism of Stubbs as a pick, and his performance, I do want him to succeed.

I just think success for him = 4th OF.