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jesusfan
08-09-2008, 04:46 PM
It comes down to talent
Posted by JohnFay at 8/8/2008 4:41 PM EDT on Cincinnati.com

There are a lot theories on what's wrong with the Reds, but I think the biggest reason they are where they are right now is because of a lack of talent. This wasn't a very deep roster to begin with. With the injuries to Aaron Harang, Jared Burton, Jerry Hairston Jr., Ryan Freel, Norris Hopper and Alex Gonzalez, it's gotten a lot thinner.

The trade of Ken Griffey Jr. thinned it a little more. Griffey was one of blog's favorite targets, but since the trade Corey Patterson has gotten the bulk of the time Griffey would have gotten. I'd still make the treade. But that's a severe drop off.

And it goes on the down the line. Homer Bailey is getting starts Harang would have gotten. Gary Majewski is getting ininngs Burton would have gotten.

Jeff Keppinger hasn't been the same player since he came back from the injury. He's hitting .209 since he came off the DL. Sit him and Jolbert Cabrera plays shortstop. Cabrera's played well but he's a 35-year-old guy who was last in the big leagues in 2004.

If everyone's healthy, Patterson is behind Freel, Hopper and Hairston on center field depth chart.

There's no way to infuse talent on Aug. 8. But you'd think the Reds would be getting younger pretty soon. They have 12 potential free agents on the roster. Isn't time the start looking at the in-house replacements? I'm curious about Ryan Hanigan, Chris Dickerson, Josh Roenicke, Chris Valaika and Todd Frazier.


I actually like this post on Fay's blog and agree with it completely.. This roster needs to get a much needed infusion of talent.. which we have in the minors, in the form of those 5 guys he mentioned. I would love to see what they could do, what's it going to hurt?

jesusfan
08-09-2008, 04:52 PM
Just as I post this... Rosales gets called up in place of Votto, who is place on bereavement... why Rosales???

CTA513
08-09-2008, 04:54 PM
Just as I post this... Rosales gets called up in place of Votto, who is place on bereavement... why Rosales???

He's been hitting pretty well for the past 3 months and has played some first base in AAA.


*edit* 18 games at first base this season and 124 games at first base since signing with the Reds according to baseball-reference.com

http://minors.baseball-reference.com/players.cgi?pid=12647

camisadelgolf
08-09-2008, 05:06 PM
Rosales has been on absolute fire the past three months. In August, he's OPSing over 1.000. If anyone has earned a callup, it's him.

jesusfan
08-09-2008, 05:08 PM
really didn't know .281 in AAA was tearing it up...

jesusfan
08-09-2008, 05:15 PM
Maybe Baker puts Kepp at 1st and Rosales at short... I don't know much about Rosales, would he be a defensive upgrade to Kepp at short? And, if so why Janish over Rosales earlier in the year...

johngalt
08-09-2008, 05:17 PM
really didn't know .281 in AAA was tearing it up...

Oh come on, that's just being lazy.

.413/.460/.674 in 22 games since the All-Star break.

.324/.375/.471 in July

.299/.339/.561 in June

I'd say he's performed pretty well recently and has been "tearing it up" since the All-Star break - unless of course you think he needs to hit the .500 mark to be tearing it up.

mth123
08-09-2008, 05:19 PM
really didn't know .281 in AAA was tearing it up...

It is when you start out April and May with OPS of .461 and .676 respectively. Since then June: .900, July: .846, August: 1.321.

I'd say that is tearing it up at this point.

This is a nice cup of coffee for Rosales. Lets keep him arond and cut Andy Phillips when Votto returns. Lets get Dickerson up while we're at it and cut Corey P.

jesusfan
08-09-2008, 05:20 PM
Oh come on, that's just being lazy.

.413/.460/.674 in 22 games since the All-Star break.

.324/.375/.471 in July

.299/.339/.561 in June

I'd say he's performed pretty well recently and has been "tearing it up" since the All-Star break - unless of course you think he needs to hit the .500 mark to be tearing it up.

Hopefully he has turned the corner... And, I wasn't being "Lazy". I knew exactly what he was hitting since the All-Star break. However, I prefer to base my opinions on larger sample sizes than just 20-30 games... Remember Corey Patterson early in the year, he started off tearing it up.. that was a small sample size...

The guy may have turned the corner though, it does happen... Hopefully that is the case.

camisadelgolf
08-09-2008, 05:32 PM
Hopefully he has turned the corner... And, I wasn't being "Lazy". I knew exactly what he was hitting since the All-Star break. However, I prefer to base my opinions on larger sample sizes than just 20-30 games... Remember Corey Patterson early in the year, he started off tearing it up.. that was a small sample size...

The guy may have turned the corner though, it does happen... Hopefully that is the case.

You were the first to say 'tearing it up' in this thread. 'Lately' was clearly implied in my post (hence the specific mentions of the past three months and August in particular). No one said he was going to turn the season around or anything, but I doubt you can find more than a small few professional baseball players who have performed better than Rosales in August this year.

johngalt
08-09-2008, 05:35 PM
Hopefully he has turned the corner... And, I wasn't being "Lazy". I knew exactly what he was hitting since the All-Star break. However, I prefer to base my opinions on larger sample sizes than just 20-30 games... Remember Corey Patterson early in the year, he started off tearing it up.. that was a small sample size...

The guy may have turned the corner though, it does happen... Hopefully that is the case.

No one said he was "tearing it up" all season. The guy said he had been on fire the last three months, which is pretty much true.

Obviously, the larger the sample size the better, but if someone is putting up a 900+ OPS over the course of two and a half months in AAA, I think most observers would agree that could be considered a significant hot streak. That's certainly different than Corey Patterson having seven good games.

CTA513
08-09-2008, 06:15 PM
Rosales got off to a horrible start in April and May, then he started hitting in June and continued to hit well in July and is off to a real good start in August.




April: .177 AVG (14 for 79) with 3 Doubles, 1 Triple and 9 RBIs
May: .235 AVG (20 for 85) with 3 Doubles, 2 Triples, 1 HR and 6 RBIs
June: .299 AVG (32 for 107) with 9 Doubles, 2 Triples, 5 HRs and 24 RBIs
July: .324 AVG (33 for 102) with 7 Doubles, 1 Triple, 2 HRs and 10 RBIs
August: .444 AVG (16 for 36) with 6 Doubles, 1 Triple, 1 HR and 4 RBIs


April and May: .207 AVG (34 for 164), with 6 Doubles, 3 Triples and 1 HR and 15 RBIs
June, July and August: .330 AVG (81 for 245), with 22 Doubles, 4 Triples and 9 HRs and 38 RBIs
Total: .281 AVG (115 for 409) with 28 Doubles, 7 Triples, 10 HRs and 53 RBIs

Blimpie
08-09-2008, 07:36 PM
The dissection of semantics on this thread is depressing. It really does illustrate how little there is to talk about with this Reds team.

Tony Cloninger
08-09-2008, 09:15 PM
Should I start a thread about tomatoes or tomatos?

KronoRed
08-09-2008, 09:42 PM
Should I start a thread about tomatoes or tomatos?

Ketchup or Catchup?

Tony Cloninger
08-09-2008, 10:58 PM
OBP or BA

TeamBoone
08-09-2008, 11:04 PM
I don't think it's a lack of talent.

I'm more inclined to go with quite a bit of mismanagement. Dusty refuses to get with the modern game in using stats to help him make decisions regarding everything (lineup construction, double switches, pinch hitting, etc.).

In addition, these players need to be lectured on the importance of decent at-bats. They rarely have them and it might help a lot... from maybe getting something better to hit, to tiring the pitcher.

Spring~Fields
08-09-2008, 11:12 PM
I don't think it's a lack of talent.

I'm more inclined to go with quite a bit of mismanagement. Dusty refuses to get with the modern game in using stats to help him make decisions regarding everything (lineup construction, double switches, pinch hitting, etc.).

In addition, these players need to be lectured on the importance of decent at-bats. They rarely have them and it might help a lot... from maybe getting something better to hit, to tiring the pitcher.

Each of your points would cumulatively help the Reds.

jesusfan
08-09-2008, 11:44 PM
sign Orlando Hudson and put BP at short, it makes this team much better offensively and defensively... DO IT! Also resign Dunner...

1. Jerry Hairston Jr- CF
2. Orlando Hudson- 2nd
3. Jay Bruce- RF
4. Brandon Phillips- SS
5. Adam Dunn- LF
6. Edwin Encarnacion- 3rd
7. Joey Votto- 1st
8. Catcher?
9. Volquez/Harang/Arroyo/Cueto/?

jojo
08-10-2008, 01:30 AM
I dont know about this talent thing but personally, I think the Reds need to make a splash this off season by hiring a big name manager.....

GAC
08-10-2008, 08:14 AM
I don't think it's a lack of talent.

I'm more inclined to go with quite a bit of mismanagement. Dusty refuses to get with the modern game in using stats to help him make decisions regarding everything (lineup construction, double switches, pinch hitting, etc.).

In addition, these players need to be lectured on the importance of decent at-bats. They rarely have them and it might help a lot... from maybe getting something better to hit, to tiring the pitcher.

Very good (and very true) points TB. But that is also coupled with a lack of talent on this team in key positions.....

CATCHING
Most teams will settle for a weak hitting catcher IF they are strong defensively. We've broken that mold by having catchers that are weak in both departments. Just one stat - we are last in passed balls in the NL in that position.

I will go out on a limb, even though this team has multiple problems, and say that the catching position has been the biggest "eye sore" on this team this year. They have to address it and not simply "cross their fingers" and hope a kid like a Hanigan - even though he has been impressive at Louisville - will be the answer in '09. And they are pretty much forced into the position of having to take up the option on Ross (3.5 mil) in '09.

OUTFIELD
Who is Jr's replacement in RF? Or if we move Bruce there, then who replaces him in CF?

SS
I like Kepp. But from watching a majority of the games this year, he is not a disaster at the position - but he is also not the answer. Jeff will soon be 29. So he is in his prime. I think what we are seeing, from both sides, is what one can expect. He'd be a super-sub on any good team.

BENCH
Injury has hurt this area. And what I mean is - it's forced what would normally be good bench players off that bench and into everyday starting roles, weakening us in both spots.

Position/utility players like Valentin, Bako, Andy Phillips, and Patterson need to be gone IMO. And this FO needs to get very serious in the off-season addressing the above positions with quality players.

I have no problem with guys like Hairston, Keppinger, and Freel being on this team if their roles (and salary) are properly defined.

Learn from the Freel contract. ;)

Jocketty was given the position by Castellini because he thought he was the best man for the job forthcoming. And that is a quicker turn around of this ball club.

Part of this team's problem in '08 has been younger player development (showing patience)..... Encarnacion, Votto, Cueto, and Volquez. Nothing anyone can do there but "bite the lower lip" and give them time.

But the other areas need to addressed if this owner is serious about wanting to turn this team around.

Walt's job needs to pinpoint those areas, identify and go after those players... and as needed, Castellini needs to step up to the plate and put forth the cash.

GAC
08-10-2008, 09:03 AM
I dont know about this talent thing but personally, I think the Reds need to make a splash this off season by hiring a big name manager.....

Maybe we should have hired Aaron. ;)

http://cincinnati.reds.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20080809&content_id=3280707&vkey=news_cin&fext=.jsp&c_id=cin

CINCINNATI -- No one needs to tell manager Dusty Baker that the past week hasn't been his the team's best. The Red roll into Sunday's finale of a four-game series with the Astros with a 1-8 record since they traded Ken Griffey Jr. -- not that the Griffey trade led to this stretch of losing baseball.

But it does stand as a signpost for what has gone wrong lately. Yet as bad as his Reds have played, Baker isn't critical one bit of one aspect of their play: their effort.

"I know we've been losing, but it's not from a lack of effort," he said. "We're playing hard. We're not playing smart sometimes, but we're playing hard."

Baker could put his finger on a number of examples of -- how might someone want to put it? -- bad baseball.

Take what rookie Jay Bruce did Friday night.

Bruce had doubled to put himself in scoring position. But on a grounder to short, Bruce broke for third. Astros shortstop Miquel Tejada saw Bruce break and threw to third to cut Bruce down.

It wasn't a smart move; it was misguided hustle.

"I've done that, too," Baker said. "But not many times."

As he was growing up in the bigs, Baker said he had Henry Aaron to set him straight. Because of his stature, Aaron did just that -- he taught the kind of lessons that a young ballplayer didn't forget.

Griffey carried similar stature. But he's now gone, and the Reds don't necessarily have a replacement for Griffey's presence, which might be the reason for the mistakes.

"Some of it is from being young," Baker said. "Some of it is from trying to make things happen."

Baker can't make his young, inexperienced ballplayers more experienced with a wave of his hand. Experience comes with time.

What Baker can do, and is doing, is teach the game, preach the learned Aaron and keep insisting that a lack of effort isn't what will bring his players success.

Yet another lesson will come Sunday at Great American Ball Park.

Highlifeman21
08-10-2008, 01:36 PM
sign Orlando Hudson and put BP at short, it makes this team much better offensively and defensively... DO IT! Also resign Dunner...

1. Jerry Hairston Jr- CF
2. Orlando Hudson- 2nd
3. Jay Bruce- RF
4. Brandon Phillips- SS
5. Adam Dunn- LF
6. Edwin Encarnacion- 3rd
7. Joey Votto- 1st
8. Catcher?
9. Volquez/Harang/Arroyo/Cueto/?

JHJ as the CF is depressing, almost as depressing as Patterson.

As for Phillips, I'm hoping Walt shops him around the league in the offseason and moves him. As much as I hate to think it, let alone type it, Phillips isn't a long term solution for this team, given his propensity to want to label himself the next big time, and the next leader, when he performs at a double standard.

Get some talent for Phillips, and hopefully a CF or a C while we're at it.

WVRedsFan
08-11-2008, 02:47 AM
Very good (and very true) points TB. But that is also coupled with a lack of talent on this team in key positions.....

CATCHING
Most teams will settle for a weak hitting catcher IF they are strong defensively. We've broken that mold by having catchers that are weak in both departments. Just one stat - we are last in passed balls in the NL in that position.

I will go out on a limb, even though this team has multiple problems, and say that the catching position has been the biggest "eye sore" on this team this year. They have to address it and not simply "cross their fingers" and hope a kid like a Hanigan - even though he has been impressive at Louisville - will be the answer in '09. And they are pretty much forced into the position of having to take up the option on Ross (3.5 mil) in '09.

OUTFIELD
Who is Jr's replacement in RF? Or if we move Bruce there, then who replaces him in CF?

SS
I like Kepp. But from watching a majority of the games this year, he is not a disaster at the position - but he is also not the answer. Jeff will soon be 29. So he is in his prime. I think what we are seeing, from both sides, is what one can expect. He'd be a super-sub on any good team.

BENCH
Injury has hurt this area. And what I mean is - it's forced what would normally be good bench players off that bench and into everyday starting roles, weakening us in both spots.

Position/utility players like Valentin, Bako, Andy Phillips, and Patterson need to be gone IMO. And this FO needs to get very serious in the off-season addressing the above positions with quality players.

I have no problem with guys like Hairston, Keppinger, and Freel being on this team if their roles (and salary) are properly defined.

Learn from the Freel contract. ;)

Jocketty was given the position by Castellini because he thought he was the best man for the job forthcoming. And that is a quicker turn around of this ball club.

Part of this team's problem in '08 has been younger player development (showing patience)..... Encarnacion, Votto, Cueto, and Volquez. Nothing anyone can do there but "bite the lower lip" and give them time.

But the other areas need to addressed if this owner is serious about wanting to turn this team around.

Walt's job needs to pinpoint those areas, identify and go after those players... and as needed, Castellini needs to step up to the plate and put forth the cash.

All I can say is just excellent. That's all. Sorry to be so late in commenting.

WVRedsFan
08-11-2008, 02:48 AM
JHJ as the CF is depressing, almost as depressing as Patterson.

As for Phillips, I'm hoping Walt shops him around the league in the offseason and moves him. As much as I hate to think it, let alone type it, Phillips isn't a long term solution for this team, given his propensity to want to label himself the next big time, and the next leader, when he performs at a double standard.

Get some talent for Phillips, and hopefully a CF or a C while we're at it.

Controversial, but I agree. He has the potential to be a problem. Big time.