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Chi-Town Red
08-10-2008, 08:52 AM
No R.B.I Since the JR trade.....Let alone HR'S

Bad skid of course...whats the issue now?

Nasty_Boy
08-10-2008, 10:46 AM
The HRs... I don't know. The RBIs... I can't think of the last time he had an RBI chance with less than 2 outs. He seems to be leading off every inning. But I think the biggest thing is the fact that Dusty has lost this team, and there isn't a person on it that is getting the job done.

757690
08-10-2008, 01:58 PM
It's August. This is what he does, slump at the end of the year.

He actually had a decent August and September last year, but that probably was an anomaly. Looks like he is back to his normal self.

Fullboat
08-10-2008, 02:11 PM
(We must resign Dunn because our offense will truly suck)<----some posters keep saying this

I don't get it. :confused:

aerontg
08-10-2008, 05:04 PM
I don't have any numbers in front of me, and quite frankly I'm a little too ill at the moment to go searching. Dunn, IMO, does not contribute to team wins. He's not a leader in anything, except maybe walks, OBP%.....and fishing amongst active MLB players. Seriously, the Reds could find an outfielder that contributes positively, on the cheap.

REDblooded
08-10-2008, 06:58 PM
maybe even one that erases runs on defense. fancy that.....

Noosh
08-10-2008, 08:08 PM
It's amazing how strictly Dunn's ups and downs follow the calendar. Awful April, great May, abysmal June, amazing July, and a third of the way through August it looks like we may have the worst month to come.

This tidbit really seems to sum it up perfectly: On the last game in July (the 30th at the Astros) Dunn had 3 hits, 2 of which were home runs. In the 10 games to follow after the calender flipped over to August, Dunn has a total of 5 hits, none of which were home runs or even RBI hits.

Most of this analysis I was just basing off my memory, but after looking at the stats I'm even more shocked by the month by month stats. I won't bother posting them all here, but I encourage everyone interested to check them out.

757690
08-10-2008, 09:34 PM
Dunn is perhaps the most consistent inconsistent hitter of all time.

Oxilon
08-10-2008, 09:39 PM
Seriously, the Reds could find an outfielder that contributes positively, on the cheap.

Who exactly would you have in mind?

improbus
08-10-2008, 10:22 PM
You can always tell how the Reds are doing by looking at Dunn's splits. Take a look.

OPS - Reds Record in same month:
April/March - .791 - 12-17
May - 1.120 - 15-12
June - .768 - 12 -16
July - 1.143 - 12 - 13
August - .368 - 1-8

Here is the problem. Dunn is very streaky, we know that. However, Phillips and EE are just as streaky. You can afford to have one streaky hitter (Like Howard on the Phils), but not your three biggest hitters.

redsbuckeye
08-11-2008, 09:08 AM
I don't have any numbers in front of me, and quite frankly I'm a little too ill at the moment to go searching. Dunn, IMO, does not contribute to team wins. He's not a leader in anything, except maybe walks, OBP%.....and fishing amongst active MLB players. Seriously, the Reds could find an outfielder that contributes positively, on the cheap.

Dunn's contributed 4.4 wins to the Reds for the year over a scrub. This is actually down from the end of July so you can positively say he's been hurting the team since August started.

Ahhhorsepoo
08-11-2008, 09:32 AM
look.. improbus is correct.. we need to have CONSISTENT hitters in the lineup and frankly those 3 are as streaky as they come.. I would like to keep BPhill because of his GG caliber D.. and if Edwin can set his feet and relax a little before he throws he still has a gg caliber glove.. he just needs to make the throws.. and EE is 4 years younger than dunn and alot cheaper..

we have proven we have plenty of POWER.. now we need to focus on getting our team average up and cut down on the worthless outs.. STRIKEOUTS..

If this month hasn't proven that Dunn is not what we need then i don't know what more proof you need, that we have an abundance of streaky hitters with plenty of power.. now we need to focus on defense and getting guys with good power/speed numbers, and some pure burners who can get on base.. i.e. norris hopper..

44Magnum
08-11-2008, 10:10 AM
I've been on vacation the past week and apparently so has Adam Dunn. In his last 10 games he has exactly 5 hits and 0 hr's and 0 rbi's. Yeah, that's someone I want to resign and keep as a cornerstone of my franchise. :rolleyes:

Once Dunn leaves, the winning will begin! He has the innate ability to keep everyone around him down!

One other thing... when my wisdom is proven correct, I just ask that everyone respect my privacy and not constantly bother me with baseball questions, etc. I guess what comes natural and easy to me is foreign to others.

redsbuckeye
08-11-2008, 10:34 AM
we have proven we have plenty of POWER.. now we need to focus on getting our team average up and cut down on the worthless outs.. STRIKEOUTS..

All outs are worthless outs in the sense that any non-out is a better outcome. The team needs to cut outs, period. The Reds are 24th in OBP this year, which is the key indicator of the lack of runs. If the strikeouts turn into other types of outs then you've gained nothing. Dunn isn't the out problem (he makes less outs than anyone else on the team) so cutting Dunn in that sense only makes the team worse.

And before you go explaining how bad strikeouts are, let it be known that strikeouts in and of themselves don't correlate to runs scored. In other words, some teams that strikeout a lot score more runs than ones that don't. Read for yourself, look at the graph:
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=2617


If this month hasn't proven that Dunn is not what we need then i don't know what more proof you need, that we have an abundance of streaky hitters with plenty of power.. now we need to focus on defense and getting guys with good power/speed numbers, and some pure burners who can get on base.. i.e. norris hopper..

Before we go anointing Norris Hopper the answer to all our problems, let's let him get more than 400 career at bats. If he keeps that up, then maybe the Reds have a worthy center fielder. At 29, I'm not holding out much hope.

Also, right now he's stolen 20 bases to 17 caught for his career, which hurts more than it helps. I'm willing to see some more since his minor league numbers are significantly better in the base-stealing department.

redsbuckeye
08-11-2008, 10:45 AM
You can always tell how the Reds are doing by looking at Dunn's splits. Take a look.

OPS - Reds Record in same month:
April/March - .791 - 12-17
May - 1.120 - 15-12
June - .768 - 12 -16
July - 1.143 - 12 - 13
August - .368 - 1-8

Here is the problem. Dunn is very streaky, we know that. However, Phillips and EE are just as streaky. You can afford to have one streaky hitter (Like Howard on the Phils), but not your three biggest hitters.

Well then let's not just blame Dunn for that. His streakiness is certainly contributing, but the team was also hurt by:
Bruce's .614 OPS June and .666 OPS July (after all, in July the Reds still lost)
Phillips .678 OPS June and .738 July, although he had a good April and May.
EE didn't contribute much during May, and has been nothing in August so far either.

We could also point much of the finger at pitching.

Nasty_Boy
08-11-2008, 10:46 AM
It's amazing... Harang gets shelled, Fogg gets shelled, Coco gets shelled... Dunn gets the blame. He does nothing but leadoff innings, because the out machines in front of him never get on base. It's a joke that fans are so down on this guy.

Caveman Techie
08-11-2008, 10:55 AM
So remind me again how erasing a 100+ RBI guy suddenly fixes all the problems on this team?

redsbuckeye
08-11-2008, 10:59 AM
Other guys having problems since August started:
EE, 4 hits in 32 at bats.
Keppinger, 4 hits in 28 at bats.
Phillips, 7 hits in 30 at bats.
Harang, 4 IP, 8 runs.
Volquez, 5 IP, 5 runs.
Fogg, 9.1 IP, 9 runs.
Majewski, 5.2 innings, 6 runs.

But let's just blame one guy.

justincredible
08-11-2008, 11:13 AM
Dunn has had a total of 5 at-bats with RISP in those 10 games. This thread (and your hatred of Dunn) is a joke. The entire team is playing like garbage and it all gets placed on Dunn's shoulders. :rolleyes:

TheBigLebowski
08-11-2008, 11:21 AM
This is ignorant even for the Sun Deck.

Griffey012
08-11-2008, 11:41 AM
Other guys having problems since August started:
EE, 4 hits in 32 at bats.
Keppinger, 4 hits in 28 at bats.
Phillips, 7 hits in 30 at bats.
Harang, 4 IP, 8 runs.
Volquez, 5 IP, 5 runs.
Fogg, 9.1 IP, 9 runs.
Majewski, 5.2 innings, 6 runs.

But let's just blame one guy.

We took Griffey out and have seen how the lineup has responded, take Dunn out and we would have one of the worst offenses in history even in a tiny ballpark. Pitchers would literally be fighting for the ball against us. Well I think they already are now the way it is.

REDblooded
08-11-2008, 11:48 AM
Since Dunn puts SO much fear in opposing pitchers as is......

I've never seen an absolute superstar/franchise cornerstone/greatest hitter of all time pitched to in key situations as much as Dunn.

improbus
08-11-2008, 11:51 AM
We took Griffey out and have seen how the lineup has responded, take Dunn out and we would have one of the worst offenses in history even in a tiny ballpark. Pitchers would literally be fighting for the ball against us. Well I think they already are now the way it is.

Junior's contributions to the lineup were underrated. He did have a very solid OBP at .355.

BLEEDS
08-11-2008, 11:53 AM
We took Griffey out and have seen how the lineup has responded, take Dunn out and we would have one of the worst offenses in history even in a tiny ballpark. Pitchers would literally be fighting for the ball against us. Well I think they already are now the way it is.

EXACTLY!!!

Those two represent #4 and #17 OPS-ing OF"s in all of Baseball for 2007 - #2 and #11 in the NL.
And last time I checked Dunn was STILL the MLB leader for HR's.

And people think we're going to be BETTER without them?!?!

We've already seen what happens when Griffey isn't in the lineup - less people for BP to ground into DP's for, that's about it.
Granted, he's on the decline, and it was a good decision to let him go and save some $$ since he wasn't in the future plans. BUT, we've got ONE guy that can replace a Junior - Bruce. SOMEDAY he might be able to put up Dunn or Hamilton numbers, but we have THREE big OPS guys out of our lineup with ONE potential replacement.

This team CAN'T GET ON BASE, and you want to run the two highest OBP guys on the team out.

I guess a lineup of Ryan Freels, Corey Pattersons and Brandon Phillips would be more productive?!?! OUT MACHINES!!! But, nobody understands that concept around here. They'd rather have BP ground into a double play than have Dunn take a walk.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

44Magnum
08-11-2008, 11:57 AM
We saw what Dunn and Jr. can do together. Nothing.
We're rid of one of the problems, now let's finish up the cleaning and get rid of Dunn and see where it takes us.

jackson
08-11-2008, 12:06 PM
I heard from a source down at the Reds game the other night that next year Jr. would go where ever adam dunn goes next and he would even come back here for Under market value just to play alongside Adam. A side note, Jr. also thinks the Tampa Bay's Ballpark is a launching pad for home runs.

IowaRed
08-11-2008, 12:19 PM
EXACTLY!!!

Those two represent #4 and #17 OPS-ing OF"s in all of Baseball for 2007 - #2 and #11 in the NL.
And last time I checked Dunn was STILL the MLB leader for HR's.

And people think we're going to be BETTER without them?!?!

We've already seen what happens when Griffey isn't in the lineup - less people for BP to ground into DP's for, that's about it.
Granted, he's on the decline, and it was a good decision to let him go and save some $$ since he wasn't in the future plans. BUT, we've got ONE guy that can replace a Junior - Bruce. SOMEDAY he might be able to put up Dunn or Hamilton numbers, but we have THREE big OPS guys out of our lineup with ONE potential replacement.

This team CAN'T GET ON BASE, and you want to run the two highest OBP guys on the team out.

I guess a lineup of Ryan Freels, Corey Pattersons and Brandon Phillips would be more productive?!?! OUT MACHINES!!! But, nobody understands that concept around here. They'd rather have BP ground into a double play than have Dunn take a walk.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

we've fought the good fight, I'm done with it but I admire you for continuing. It's a futile task to try to bring stats and logical thinking into the minds of those who apparently pine for Norris Hopper and Ryan Freel and the all too often unnamed OF's out there that can produce like Dunn but won't cost like Dunn

redsbuckeye
08-11-2008, 12:20 PM
Since Dunn puts SO much fear in opposing pitchers as is......

I've never seen an absolute superstar/franchise cornerstone/greatest hitter of all time pitched to in key situations as much as Dunn.

Then why, with guys on base, does Dunn's OBP actually go up? Wouldn't more walks be an indicator that he's seeing less good pitches when guys are on?

Edit, that's over the last 3 seasons.

redsbuckeye
08-11-2008, 12:22 PM
We saw what Dunn and Jr. can do together. Nothing.
We're rid of one of the problems, now let's finish up the cleaning and get rid of Dunn and see where it takes us.

Because two guys account for the entire success of a team, hm?

CWRed
08-11-2008, 12:24 PM
So remind me again how erasing a 100+ RBI guy suddenly fixes all the problems on this team?


It's futile to argue with Dunn-haters. Ignorance is bliss to them.

improbus
08-11-2008, 12:29 PM
Well then let's not just blame Dunn for that. His streakiness is certainly contributing, but the team was also hurt by:
Bruce's .614 OPS June and .666 OPS July (after all, in July the Reds still lost)
Phillips .678 OPS June and .738 July, although he had a good April and May.
EE didn't contribute much during May, and has been nothing in August so far either.

We could also point much of the finger at pitching.
I agree. It is just amazing how the record swings so dramatically with Dunn's numbers.
For Example: Edwin had an .OPS of .475 in May and yet the Reds went 15-12. Then he had an OPS of 1.025 in June and the Reds went 12-16.

sammonator
08-11-2008, 12:33 PM
Dunn hasn't been the same player since Griff left. I think he wants out as well. I just don't see him wanting to play here next year. And I think one of those hits maybe even 2 were infield hits. I think he has checked out. But so has the rest of the team.

redsbuckeye
08-11-2008, 12:38 PM
Dunn hasn't been the same player since Griff left. I think he wants out as well. I just don't see him wanting to play here next year. And I think one of those hits maybe even 2 were infield hits. I think he has checked out. But so has the rest of the team.

He could want out, although in a contract year with either extension or free agency, you'd think Dunn would want to play his hardest to get the most money he could, regardless of the status of his buddy.

It's been 12 days since Griffey was traded, let's see what he does for the remainder.

Ahhhorsepoo
08-11-2008, 12:54 PM
redsbuckeye.. get off the adam dunn bandwagon..

strikeouts are bad no matter what! if you strikeout there is a smaller chance of advancing to first than any other type of "out".. BY FAR.. EVERY OTHER one still leaves room for an error..

look I know they don't normally happen.. but any person with any knowledge of ANYTHING would rather have a flyout to the outfield than a strikeout.. heck if you have a player as fast as a bonifacio its nearly impossible to double that guy up..

there is also alot of homerun hitters that are prolific strikeout kings.. soo they might score 100 runs which is in the top 10% but they also strikeout 150 or more times.. soo the strikeout to run ratio has a few outstanding factors..

wasnt saying norris was the solution.. but a quick non power speedy good defensive player would really be welcomed on this team.. bphill is a perfect speed and power guy, but we also need some fast guys..

Ahhhorsepoo
08-11-2008, 01:00 PM
soo you dont think any of the losses are to blame on dunn? he does get paid to be one of our best players does he not?

I am just checking, because you are making it sound like he shouldnt be producing since everyone else is on a slump..

just because harang was getting back in the groove and this losing crap they call baseball is really getting to the young guys.. means we should look past the fact that we pay dunn to contribute and create runs.. which is something he does in on for 2 weeks off for 4 weeks spurts.. sorry but he should not be getting big time money if he cant even try to get a team jump started..

HE GETS PAID TO BE THE BIG PLAYER ON THIS TEAM!! quit making excuses on why he can't do anything above the average, let alone play like an average player more than half the year..

redsbuckeye
08-11-2008, 01:12 PM
redsbuckeye.. get off the adam dunn bandwagon..

This has nothing to do with bandwagon, you're trying to color others' perception of me with such statements.


strikeouts are bad no matter what! if you strikeout there is a smaller chance of advancing to first than any other type of "out".. BY FAR.. EVERY OTHER one still leaves room for an error..

You didn't read the article, did you? If you're relying on errors to score runs, you're doing it wrong. And how about double plays? Hitting a ball in play can be worse than a strikeout.

FACT: Strikeouts don't correlate to runs scored. It's as simple as that. They're an out, yes, and outs are bad, but they aren't the worst thing a batter can do. The fact is that strikeouts also correlate to walks. So guys who strikeout a lot often also tend to walk a lot, and in turn get on base more. You haven't addressed the fact that, overall, Dunn makes FEWER outs than anyone else on the team. What do you say to that?


look I know they don't normally happen.. but any person with any knowledge of ANYTHING would rather have a flyout to the outfield than a strikeout.. heck if you have a player as fast as a bonifacio its nearly impossible to double that guy up..

Again, read the article. When you can refute that, come back here.


there is also alot of homerun hitters that are prolific strikeout kings.. soo they might score 100 runs which is in the top 10% but they also strikeout 150 or more times.. soo the strikeout to run ratio has a few outstanding factors..

Wait, how can that be a bad thing if guys score a lot of runs? Again, read the article.


wasnt saying norris was the solution.. but a quick non power speedy good defensive player would really be welcomed on this team.. bphill is a perfect speed and power guy, but we also need some fast guys..

Ok, fair enough on Hopper, but you do realize that Phillips makes a lot of outs? Way more than Dunn?

757690
08-11-2008, 01:22 PM
Well then let's not just blame Dunn for that. His streakiness is certainly contributing, but the team was also hurt by:
Bruce's .614 OPS June and .666 OPS July (after all, in July the Reds still lost)
Phillips .678 OPS June and .738 July, although he had a good April and May.
EE didn't contribute much during May, and has been nothing in August so far either.

We could also point much of the finger at pitching.

Everyone is streaky, but the what baffles everyone is how consistent Dunn is with his streakiness. He seems to always have a great June, then drop off significantly in the last two months of the season.

Ahhhorsepoo
08-11-2008, 01:23 PM
This has nothing to do with bandwagon, you're trying to color others' perception of me with such statements.



You didn't read the article, did you? If you're relying on errors to score runs, you're doing it wrong. And how about double plays? Hitting a ball in play can be worse than a strikeout.

FACT: Strikeouts don't correlate to runs scored. It's as simple as that. They're an out, yes, and outs are bad, but they aren't the worst thing a batter can do. The fact is that strikeouts also correlate to walks. So guys who strikeout a lot often also tend to walk a lot, and in turn get on base more. You haven't addressed the fact that, overall, Dunn makes FEWER outs than anyone else on the team. What do you say to that?



Again, read the article. When you can refute that, come back here.



Wait, how can that be a bad thing if guys score a lot of runs? Again, read the article.



Ok, fair enough on Hopper, but you do realize that Phillips makes a lot of outs? Way more than Dunn?

i will agree phillips makes too many outs to be a number 3 hitter right now.. but if he continues to improve on his selectivity and he goes to his 2 strike shortened swing more often he will immediately push his average to 290 or 300 and his obp to 370 or 380..

redsbuckeye
08-11-2008, 01:30 PM
i will agree phillips makes too many outs to be a number 3 hitter right now.. but if he continues to improve on his selectivity and he goes to his 2 strike shortened swing more often he will immediately push his average to 290 or 300 and his obp to 370 or 380..

As much as I'd love to see Phillips get more selective, it's extraordinarily hard to make guys more selective. Changing approaches often have negative effects. Billy Beane tried it for years with Eric Chavez but it just wasn't happening. I highly doubt Phillips will ever OBP over .350, and that's being generous.

It could happen, stranger things have happened of course. But you're talking about a guy practically doubling his walk total for a season.

The way I see it, Phillips is a #5 hitter at best, where his power can be of some use against lefties. Against righties, he might as well bat 8th.

So, about that article...

redsbuckeye
08-11-2008, 01:37 PM
soo you dont think any of the losses are to blame on dunn? he does get paid to be one of our best players does he not?

I am just checking, because you are making it sound like he shouldnt be producing since everyone else is on a slump..

Yes, you can blame Dunn for some of the August problems as he sure hasn't been producing. But to put the blame solely on his shoulders is ingoring the problem as a whole.


just because harang was getting back in the groove and this losing crap they call baseball is really getting to the young guys.. means we should look past the fact that we pay dunn to contribute and create runs.. which is something he does in on for 2 weeks off for 4 weeks spurts.. sorry but he should not be getting big time money if he cant even try to get a team jump started..

All players are paid to contribute but no one is blaming anyone else but Dunn for the issues when just about everbody not named Bruce could be blamed for the August problems.


HE GETS PAID TO BE THE BIG PLAYER ON THIS TEAM!! quit making excuses on why he can't do anything above the average, let alone play like an average player more than half the year..

I'm not making excuses for Dunn, he's been playing poorly lately, no doubt about it. What I'm NOT going to do is let everybody else off the hook who's also been playing like crap. Dunn is one out of 25 guys.

Nasty_Boy
08-11-2008, 01:42 PM
Dunn has had a total of 5 at-bats with RISP in those 10 games. This thread (and your hatred of Dunn) is a joke. The entire team is playing like garbage and it all gets placed on Dunn's shoulders. :rolleyes:


How many of those ABs were with 2 outs?

How many innings has Dunn led off because of the out machines in front of him?

Dunn has led off more innings than any #5 hitter in baseball.

44Magnum
08-11-2008, 01:43 PM
Dunn hasn't been the same player since Griff left. I think he wants out as well. I just don't see him wanting to play here next year. And I think one of those hits maybe even 2 were infield hits. I think he has checked out. But so has the rest of the team.

For someone to even think something like this about any player is very telling of how that player is generally perceived!

Griffey012
08-11-2008, 01:43 PM
The whole point is that some hitters make the hitters around them perform better no matter the hitters current performance. Yes, Griffey looked overmatched quite a few times at the plate this year, however he made the other hitters around him better because pitchers were still afraid of the name "Griffey" in the on deck circle. The same is true for Dunn, but due to awesome lineup construction it doesn't matter because we have a free swinger in front of Dunn who struggles against righties, they aren't worried about Phillips taking a walk and being on base for Dunn. Just wait and see what would happen to Votto with no Dunn in front of him.

Jack Burton
08-11-2008, 01:47 PM
Hey, lay off the poor guy he tries his hardest. How can you blame him for having a .230 season batting average, that isn't his fault. His defense really isn't his fault, he's just not fast. He walks a lot and that's good for the ball club. Just because he's slumping lately is not his fault, it's the teams fault. The team is causing him to slump and maybe he's sad about his pal Griffey leaving. I mean, we can all agree that the strikeouts are not donkey's fault, it's just good pitchers doing their job. Dunn is one of the best to ever put on the uni so let's give him a pass, ok. Doesn't he deserve it?

UPRedsFan
08-11-2008, 01:49 PM
I think it's Dunn's inconsistency, his tendency to go into slumps that has people wanting to see him gone. You cannot make an argument statistically against him. The numbers are tough to beat. But he does fall into these cold periods. He'll go on a 10 game tear and make everyone chant sign him, sign him. But it's always followed by 10 games of zero production. That's why he'll never get much over 100 rbi. Maybe it wouldn't hurt so much if we didn't also have Phillips and Encarnacion in the same lineup who are both just as capable of slumping. Surround Dunn with some more consistent hitters (hopefully Votto and Bruce) and we may not hear this in the future about Dunn.

757690
08-11-2008, 01:50 PM
We took Griffey out and have seen how the lineup has responded, take Dunn out and we would have one of the worst offenses in history even in a tiny ballpark. Pitchers would literally be fighting for the ball against us. Well I think they already are now the way it is.

The Reds took Jr. out and replaced him with Patterson. That is why the offense sucks.

I have faith that Jocketty will find a good replacement for Griffey in the offseason, and that if Dunn leaves, that he will find a suitable replacement for him too.

It is not like if the Reds lose Dunn, he get replaced by Norris Hopper. The Reds will go out and get a solid left fielder if they let Dunn walk. They won't get one that hits 40 HR or drives in 100 RBI's, but they don't need to. If they are able to shore up the team's defense with strong defensive C, CF and SS, and get good years out of Bruce, Votto and EE, then that would make the team as good if not better than if they kept Dunn.

BurgervilleBuck
08-11-2008, 01:53 PM
Dunn hasn't been the same player since Griff left.
Now it's Griff, then it was Kearns. Yet Dunn has been able to stay consistent in his production despite it.

It's easy to just see all of the strikeouts and the bad fielding. But it's going to take at least two players to replace what Dunn has provided the last four-five seasons.

Jack Burton
08-11-2008, 01:55 PM
The whole point is that some hitters make the hitters around them perform better no matter the hitters current performance. Yes, Griffey looked overmatched quite a few times at the plate this year, however he made the other hitters around him better because pitchers were still afraid of the name "Griffey" in the on deck circle. The same is true for Dunn, but due to awesome lineup construction it doesn't matter because we have a free swinger in front of Dunn who struggles against righties, they aren't worried about Phillips taking a walk and being on base for Dunn. Just wait and see what would happen to Votto with no Dunn in front of him.

The 50 million dollar decoy.

Ahhhorsepoo
08-11-2008, 02:03 PM
soo wait.. that article says.. with graphs..

the more your team strikes out.. if anything there is a correlation to you scoring more runs.. but then it also says if you strikeout the other team more often you give up less runs..? What data set would back up those contradicting assertions?

there are also many many many factors that go into other outs.. like what about if you hit a ball to deep center, and the runner doesnt go second to third because he is halfway to third and has to retreat? or on a GIDP, there is no room to show that the runner going to second didnt even try to break up the play, or if it was a fly ball double play, why the runner didnt retreat in time..

look you cannot honestly tell me a game where 27 batters strikeout compared to one where 4 or 5 strikeout and the rest hit it somewhere in fair territory for outs, would have the same outcome most of the time.. the one where players can hit the ball is going to usually have a higher score..

OPS
08-11-2008, 02:20 PM
look.. improbus is correct.. we need to have CONSISTENT hitters in the lineup and frankly those 3 are as streaky as they come.. I would like to keep BPhill because of his GG caliber D.. and if Edwin can set his feet and relax a little before he throws he still has a gg caliber glove.. he just needs to make the throws.. and EE is 4 years younger than dunn and alot cheaper..

we have proven we have plenty of POWER.. now we need to focus on getting our team average up and cut down on the worthless outs.. STRIKEOUTS..

If this month hasn't proven that Dunn is not what we need then i don't know what more proof you need, that we have an abundance of streaky hitters with plenty of power.. now we need to focus on defense and getting guys with good power/speed numbers, and some pure burners who can get on base.. i.e. norris hopper..


I think you're on to something. Why look at years of data that say that Dunn is one of the best hitters in the game when we can look at his most recent 10 games and make a decision. That's all the proof we need isn't it.

Norris Hopper has a career OPS+ of 89. That is abysmal. He cannot receive significant playing time on a winning team. However, if you need a warm body in an already lost season, he can help improve your draft standing.

Ahhhorsepoo
08-11-2008, 02:20 PM
How many of those ABs were with 2 outs?

How many innings has Dunn led off because of the out machines in front of him?

Dunn has led off more innings than any #5 hitter in baseball.

the very first team i checked was the best team in baseball with torii hunter as their 5 batter..

in 108 games has 106 PA and 99 AB's.. leading off the inning.. with a .505 slugging percentage
Dunn in 112 games has 116 PA and 97 AB's.. leading off the inning.. with a .495 slugging percentage..

Soo I would say its not like he is the most abused MLB #5 hitter.. and like i said that was the FIRST team i looked at... I stopped after that.. I will agree he might have more than most.. but not like 40 more than anyone else..
I am not saying hunter is better, but obviously they have 3 and 4 guys who get out too.. notice though.. they win games.. maybe the defense and speed helps.. ya think?

Ahhhorsepoo
08-11-2008, 02:32 PM
OPS.. not sure if you know what baseball is..

Dunn does this ALL the time.. this isnt a 10 game skid that he has never been on.. i will point you to the points in his career where he has gone months hitting less than .175.. not just these 10 games.. heck earlier in the year he had like a 6 for 42 streak where 4 of the hits were homers or something ridiculous like that..

Just because HIS career OPS+ is 89 doesn't mean we shouldn't get players like him to play and bat leadoff..

his OPS+ is actually hurt because he plays in GABP.. while a person like rickey henderson was helped because he played in a pitchers park..

OPS without the field averaging for both players is alot closer.. and more indicative of the type of production he can bring to the team.. his OPS is a career .738 with hendersons being .820....

I am not comparing him to Henderson.. but hopper has no power.. thats not what he would be on a team.. but his OPS+ is negatively reflected because he hits in GABP.. sorry but a double in the gap here is a double in any park, and in some, SF, Oakland, Houston.. could be a triple.. while hendersons goes up soo much because their park was a non homerun park...

redsbuckeye
08-11-2008, 02:38 PM
soo wait.. that article says.. with graphs..

the more your team strikes out.. if anything there is a correlation to you scoring more runs.. but then it also says if you strikeout the other team more often you give up less runs..? What data set would back up those contradicting assertions?

The first graph was from a team perspective, the second was from a pitcher's (individual's) perspective. Taking the defense out of the equation for a pitcher means the strikeout becomes powerful. This is related to BABIP and the luck factor.

Also, for a batter, strikeouts can be viewed as a side effect of getting a lot of walks, so they're part of the same skill-set. For offense, walks and strikeouts are correlated. Essentially walkers make less outs, but a higher % of their outs are strikeouts. But less outs is with high strikeout % is preferable to more outs with lower strikeout %.

For a pitcher, they aren't part of the same skillset. Strikeout pitchers don't correlate with pitchers who give up walks. Pitchers who give up walks are a very bad thing.


there are also many many many factors that go into other outs.. like what about if you hit a ball to deep center, and the runner doesnt go second to third because he is halfway to third and has to retreat? or on a GIDP, there is no room to show that the runner going to second didnt even try to break up the play, or if it was a fly ball double play, why the runner didnt retreat in time..

You can talk about that til you're blue in the face but it doesn't matter, strikeouts don't correlate to runs scored, end of story.


look you cannot honestly tell me a game where 27 batters strikeout compared to one where 4 or 5 strikeout and the rest hit it somewhere in fair territory for outs, would have the same outcome most of the time.. the one where players can hit the ball is going to usually have a higher score..

Um, either way it's a perfect game for the other team.

I see what you're saying, you'd think a team that puts the ball in play would tend to get errors. But any advantage of errors gets negated by the disadvantage of double plays. Even if a team made 1 error per game (unlikely) and got everyone else out, they still wouldn't score.

redsbuckeye
08-11-2008, 02:40 PM
OPS.. not sure if you know what baseball is..

Dunn does this ALL the time.. this isnt a 10 game skid that he has never been on.. i will point you to the points in his career where he has gone months hitting less than .175.. not just these 10 games.. heck earlier in the year he had like a 6 for 42 streak where 4 of the hits were homers or something ridiculous like that..

Just because HIS career OPS+ is 89 doesn't mean we shouldn't get players like him to play and bat leadoff..

his OPS+ is actually hurt because he plays in GABP.. while a person like rickey henderson was helped because he played in a pitchers park..

OPS without the field averaging for both players is alot closer.. and more indicative of the type of production he can bring to the team.. his OPS is a career .738 with hendersons being .820....

I am not comparing him to Henderson.. but hopper has no power.. thats not what he would be on a team.. but his OPS+ is negatively reflected because he hits in GABP.. sorry but a double in the gap here is a double in any park, and in some, SF, Oakland, Houston.. could be a triple.. while hendersons goes up soo much because their park was a non homerun park...

I'd like to see your methodology you used to make these determinations.

OPS
08-11-2008, 02:53 PM
OPS.. not sure if you know what baseball is..

Dunn does this ALL the time.. this isnt a 10 game skid that he has never been on.. i will point you to the points in his career where he has gone months hitting less than .175.. not just these 10 games.. heck earlier in the year he had like a 6 for 42 streak where 4 of the hits were homers or something ridiculous like that..

Just because HIS career OPS+ is 89 doesn't mean we shouldn't get players like him to play and bat leadoff..

his OPS+ is actually hurt because he plays in GABP.. while a person like rickey henderson was helped because he played in a pitchers park..

OPS without the field averaging for both players is alot closer.. and more indicative of the type of production he can bring to the team.. his OPS is a career .738 with hendersons being .820....

I am not comparing him to Henderson.. but hopper has no power.. thats not what he would be on a team.. but his OPS+ is negatively reflected because he hits in GABP.. sorry but a double in the gap here is a double in any park, and in some, SF, Oakland, Houston.. could be a triple.. while hendersons goes up soo much because their park was a non homerun park...

I don't think I can argue with this non-logic. Anyway, it looks like Dunn may or may not have been traded to the D-backs today.

levydl
08-11-2008, 03:40 PM
The Reds took Jr. out and replaced him with Patterson. That is why the offense sucks.

I have faith that Jocketty will find a good replacement for Griffey in the offseason, and that if Dunn leaves, that he will find a suitable replacement for him too.

It is not like if the Reds lose Dunn, he get replaced by Norris Hopper. The Reds will go out and get a solid left fielder if they let Dunn walk. They won't get one that hits 40 HR or drives in 100 RBI's, but they don't need to. If they are able to shore up the team's defense with strong defensive C, CF and SS, and get good years out of Bruce, Votto and EE, then that would make the team as good if not better than if they kept Dunn.

If gettin a good defensive C, SS, CF, and getting good years from Bruce, Votto, and Edwin would make the team as good if not better than if they kept Dunn, imagine how good they'd be if they did all that AND kept Dunn. The two aren't mutually exclusive.

Caveman Techie
08-11-2008, 04:13 PM
look you cannot honestly tell me a game where 27 batters strikeout compared to one where 4 or 5 strikeout and the rest hit it somewhere in fair territory for outs, would have the same outcome most of the time.. the one where players can hit the ball is going to usually have a higher score..

Not that it's to your extreme but Reds vs. Astros last friday night.

Astros 15 strikeouts
Reds 8 strikeouts

Score:

Astros 9
Reds 5

Ahhhorsepoo
08-11-2008, 05:11 PM
the reds also should have won that game.... had they not blown the game twice they should have won it..

gilpdawg
08-11-2008, 06:04 PM
One other thing... when my wisdom is proven correct, I just ask that everyone respect my privacy and not constantly bother me with baseball questions, etc. I guess what comes natural and easy to me is foreign to others.
Is that a serious statement? If it is, you should be back at the home by dark.