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Kc61
08-10-2008, 11:55 PM
For all the talk about improving the front-line talent, the Reds' current free fall can be attributable to lack of depth.

Right around the all star break, the outfield was a rotating group of Dunn, Griffey, Bruce and Hairston. While it may not have lasted, Hairston was hitting .340. Griffey, though not vintage, still hit well on occasion. Now, the outfield is Bruce, Dunn and Patterson. Cabrera (a reserve infielder) fills in against lefties in the outfield.

Keppinger did a good job offensively until his injury. I don't know if he's healthy, but his performance has fallen off. Hairston was his backup, now there's no backup shortstop and Kepp still plays every day.

Until Harang's return today, Josh Fogg and Homer Bailey were both part of the rotation. The starting rotation was originally four deep; with Harang's injury it was three deep with two spots, again, to Fogg and Bailey.

The bullpen has held up decently, but with Burton out the Reds have used Majewski more and was using Coffey (now the new guy from the Chisox has taken over). Let's just say they haven't performed quite like Burton.

If the Reds had better replacements at these positions, IMO the team would still be flirting with the .500 mark and the free fall would have been avoided.
While the team needs better starting players, some good depth would have helped salvage a decent season.

cincrazy
08-11-2008, 12:02 AM
For all the talk about improving the front-line talent, the Reds' current free fall can be attributable to lack of depth.

Right around the all star break, the outfield was a rotating group of Dunn, Griffey, Bruce and Hairston. While it may not have lasted, Hairston was hitting .340. Griffey, though not vintage, still hit well on occasion. Now, the outfield is Bruce, Dunn and Patterson. Cabrera (a reserve infielder) fills in against lefties in the outfield.

Keppinger did a good job offensively until his injury. I don't know if he's healthy, but his performance has fallen off. Hairston was his backup, now there's no backup shortstop and Kepp still plays every day.

Until Harang's return today, Josh Fogg and Homer Bailey were both part of the rotation. The starting rotation was four deep; with Harang's injury it was three deep with two spots, again, to Fogg and Bailey.

The bullpen has held up decently, but with Burton out the Reds have used Majewski more and was using Coffey (now the new guy from the Chisox has taken over). Let's just say they haven't performed quite like Burton.

If the Reds had better replacements at these positions, IMO the team would still be flirting with the .500 mark and the free fall would have been avoided.
While the team needs better starting players, some good depth would have helped salvage a decent season.

Amen. Take a look at our neighbor's from the West if you want to see good depth, and an organization that can overcome injuries and win consistently (St. Louis)

Matt700wlw
08-11-2008, 12:18 AM
We know what Patterbaker can't do.....I'd like to see if Dickerson can do.

WVRedsFan
08-11-2008, 01:03 AM
We know what Patterbaker can't do.....I'd like to see if Dickerson can do.

I think we all would, but there comes a point where you have to get rid of someone who might be more valuable to bring up the kids. Corey is horrible at the plate--we all know that, but he does have a glove that is valuable if used properly.

And I'll say one more thing that will ruffle some feathers. Dusty Baker was sold the bill of goods that someone (who name will not be mentioned) that this team was ready to contend. In some folks' minds this was true, but it was not based in reality. Baker was so desparate to get back into managing that he bought the line given him. So Baker comes in and sees two lefty first basemen, no shortstop, a third baseman who is fragile emotionally (I assume), a left fielder who is hot and cold, a lifetime .254 hitter (.269 last year) bat on the interstate, an aging superstar in right field, three catchers who can't catch or hit, an ace starter who had health problems, a No. 2 starter who went through a period of cantgetemout syndrome, a couple of rookies that had and are having troubles, and bench depleted by injuries. And it's all Dusty's fault. Yes, he has his flaws and I wish they had hired someone else, but the roster assembled for Dusty is almost a sin.

That;s enough trouble for tonight (or this morning--your choice), but what I'm trying to say is Walt has a big job ahead of him and I don't envy his position at all.

Matt700wlw
08-11-2008, 01:09 AM
I think we all would, but there comes a point where you have to get rid of someone who might be more valuable to bring up the kids. Corey is horrible at the plate--we all know that, but he does have a glove that is valuable if used properly.

And I'll say one more thing that will ruffle some feathers. Dusty Baker was sold the bill of goods that someone (who name will not be mentioned) that this team was ready to contend. In some folks' minds this was true, but it was not based in reality. Baker was so desparate to get back into managing that he bought the line given him. So Baker comes in and sees two lefty first basemen, no shortstop, a third baseman who is fragile emotionally (I assume), a left fielder who is hot and cold, a lifetime .254 hitter (.269 last year) bat on the interstate, an aging superstar in right field, three catchers who can't catch or hit, an ace starter who had health problems, a No. 2 starter who went through a period of cantgetemout syndrome, a couple of rookies that had and are having troubles, and bench depleted by injuries. And it's all Dusty's fault. Yes, he has his flaws and I wish they had hired someone else, but the roster assembled for Dusty is almost a sin.

That;s enough trouble for tonight (or this morning--your choice), but what I'm trying to say is Walt has a big job ahead of him and I don't envy his position at all.

I can't disaree with this.

remdog
08-11-2008, 01:10 AM
I think we all would, but there comes a point where you have to get rid of someone who might be more valuable to bring up the kids. Corey is horrible at the plate--we all know that, but he does have a glove that is valuable if used properly.

And I'll say one more thing that will ruffle some feathers. Dusty Baker was sold the bill of goods that someone (who name will not be mentioned) that this team was ready to contend. In some folks' minds this was true, but it was not based in reality. Baker was so desparate to get back into managing that he bought the line given him. So Baker comes in and sees two lefty first basemen, no shortstop, a third baseman who is fragile emotionally (I assume), a left fielder who is hot and cold, a lifetime .254 hitter (.269 last year) bat on the interstate, an aging superstar in right field, three catchers who can't catch or hit, an ace starter who had health problems, a No. 2 starter who went through a period of cantgetemout syndrome, a couple of rookies that had and are having troubles, and bench depleted by injuries. And it's all Dusty's fault. Yes, he has his flaws and I wish they had hired someone else, but the roster assembled for Dusty is almost a sin.

That;s enough trouble for tonight (or this morning--your choice), but what I'm trying to say is Walt has a big job ahead of him and I don't envy his position at all.

:clap: Yep, that pretty much covers it. :)

Rem

Chip R
08-11-2008, 09:36 AM
And I'll say one more thing that will ruffle some feathers. Dusty Baker was sold the bill of goods that someone (who name will not be mentioned) that this team was ready to contend.


Dusty didn't just fall off the turnip truck. He's been around long enough to see that the team wasn't as good as it was hyped to be by that particular someone. If he thought this team was ready to contend, he's as bad a talent evaluator as he is a manager. He wanted to get back into managing in the worst way and he accomplished that goal.

Spring~Fields
08-11-2008, 09:44 AM
Dusty Baker was sold the bill of goods that someone (who name will not be mentioned) that this team was ready to contend.

:sleep::sleep::sleep:

Patterson .253 .292 .408 .700
Batting #1 .212 .256 .338 .594
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/stats?playerId=4239
Hairston .259 .329 .366 .695
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/stats?playerId=3966
Bako .231 .304 .318 .622
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/stats?playerId=3829
Mercker
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/stats?playerId=2284

These are not players that Baker would be unfamiliar with.

I believe that these guys were unemployed going into spring training.

At least one of them had been out of baseball since 2006.

Hard to believe that those evaluating their history, past performance and past injury history decided to have them taking up space on the roster.

Especially since they lived up to their past histories once again.
:barf:


Walt has a big job ahead of him and I don't envy his position at all.
Couldn't agree more, I just hope that he doesn't listen to Baker when it comes to some players.

Ltlabner
08-11-2008, 09:59 AM
And it's all Dusty's fault. Yes, he has his flaws and I wish they had hired someone else, but the roster assembled for Dusty is almost a sin.

The roster Dusty was handed had flaws. No doubt. I don't think anybody has tried to deny that or make the claim this was a world serries bound team. There was a lot of optimisim at the start of the season, myself included, that we would at least contend. Unfounded exuberence? Yea, probably. Sorry that I just can't bring myself to decry that the world sucks as a default setting.

And before you respond, yes, I think Wayne Krivsky made mistakes. Those of you (the general you) trying to make the case that Wayne is untouchable on RZ are full of hot air and you know it.

Is Dusty to blame for every problem the Reds have had? Obviously not. However, he's done absoultey, positivley nothing to try to improve what he does have. In fact, he's done just about everything he can do to make a bad situation worse.

Is he to blame for Jerry Harriston Jr's injury? Of course not. Is he responsible for bringing him back to soon and rushing things? YES.

Is he to blame for Griffey Jr's poor April and May. Of corse not. Is he repsonsible for batting him 3rd day after day despite how it was draging the team down? YES.

Is Dusty to blame for Corey Patterson not being able to hit a bull in the butt with a 2x4? Of coruse not. Is he to blame for giving him 200+ leadoff at bats, most of which were in April and May instead of maxamizing his glove by batting him 8th? YES.

Is Dusty to blame for having two left handed 1st basemen? Of corse not. Is he to blame for burying the productive one at the back of the order (7th) during the month of April and May when the team desperatley needed a productive bat at the top of the lineup? YES.

Is Dusty to blame for Brandon Phillips low OBP and propensity to hit into double plays? Of corse not. Is he to blame for inking him into the 4th spot and trying to cast him as a powerhitter? YES.

Is Dusty to blame for the lineup having some (a bunch of) freeswingers? Of corse not. Is he to blame for preaching "be agressive" and encouraging them to wail away (plate discipline be dammed!). YES.

Is Dusty to blame for Dick Pole apparently not being a very good pitching coach? No. Is he to blame when Dick is napping in the dougout and the entire stadium knows he should be making a trip to the mound? YES.

There is blame all around in this orginization. Starting at the Steinbrenner-lite at the top, to Wayne Krivsky, to now Walt Jockety, all the way down to Dusty.

As much as people wonder why Wayne is "protected" I am starting to wonder about the apparent reluctance of some to point the finger of blame at the Dustomatic. I suspect I know why and it is disgusting.

Spring~Fields
08-11-2008, 10:03 AM
Dusty didn't just fall off the turnip truck.

Are you sure about that ? Convince me. :)
Start with batting first and second, and work your way up or down from there. :devil:

jojo
08-11-2008, 10:08 AM
Dusty didn't just fall off the turnip truck. He's been around long enough to see that the team wasn't as good as it was hyped to be by that particular someone. If he thought this team was ready to contend, he's as bad a talent evaluator as he is a manager. He wanted to get back into managing in the worst way and he accomplished that goal.

Ya. Dusty found a cozy niche of like-minded individuals that fit him like a glove and were willing to pay him multi-mullions per year.

If Dusty is guilty of anything its not naivete-it's either hubris (in the sense that his influence could trump talent although his recent comments seem to suggest he accepted that it doesn't) or as Chip eloquently stated "he's (Dusty) as bad a talent evaluator as he is a manager". There is a third possibility and it's one I don't want to contemplate (truly I can't believe it's applicable)-Dusty doesn't give a rats' about winning and he's collecting a paycheck.

It's difficult to have a great deal of hope for the Reds future and it turns my stomach to contemplate whether our patience is being misspent on an organization that might just be incapable of pulling itself up by it's bootstraps (though I guess even someone with severe brain damage can luck into wealth by buying a lottery ticket).

The Reds have had some nice positives-mostly centered on the simultaneous emergence of the youngsters dubbed "the big four". But right now the Reds are basically just putting news clothes on the same pig and claiming the bacon is going to get better.

At least with the Ms, rock bottom has already jarred the organization into a place where a new FO will be installed (so at least hope is renewed while waiting to see if the FO will emerge successfully with a new brain or if ownership simply decided to put a new dress on the same pig).

Is there a rock bottom for the Reds? If so, my gosh, how bad will it be?

edabbs44
08-11-2008, 10:14 AM
The roster Dusty was handed had flaws. No doubt. I don't think anybody has tried to deny that or make the claim this was a world serries bound team. There was a lot of optimisim at the start of the season, myself included, that we would at least contend. Unfounded exuberence? Yea, probably. Sorry that I just can't bring myself to decry that the world sucks as a default setting.

And before you respond, yes, I think Wayne Krivsky made mistakes. Those of you (the general you) trying to make the case that Wayne is untouchable on RZ are full of hot air and you know it.

Is Dusty to blame for every problem the Reds have had? Obviously not. However, he's done absoultey, positivley nothing to try to improve what he does have. In fact, he's done just about everything he can do to make a bad situation worse.

Is he to blame for Jerry Harriston Jr's injury? Of course not. Is he responsible for bringing him back to soon and rushing things? YES.

Is he to blame for Griffey Jr's poor April and May. Of corse not. Is he repsonsible for batting him 3rd day after day despite how it was draging the team down? YES.

Is Dusty to blame for Corey Patterson not being able to hit a bull in the butt with a 2x4? Of coruse not. Is he to blame for giving him 200+ leadoff at bats, most of which were in April and May instead of maxamizing his glove by batting him 8th? YES.

Is Dusty to blame for having two left handed 1st basemen? Of corse not. Is he to blame for burying the productive one at the back of the order (7th) during the month of April and May when the team desperatley needed a productive bat at the top of the lineup? YES.

Is Dusty to blame for Brandon Phillips low OBP and propensity to hit into double plays? Of corse not. Is he to blame for inking him into the 4th spot and trying to cast him as a powerhitter? YES.

Is Dusty to blame for the lineup having some (a bunch of) freeswingers? Of corse not. Is he to blame for preaching "be agressive" and encouraging them to wail away (plate discipline be dammed!). YES.

Is Dusty to blame for Dick Pole apparently not being a very good pitching coach? No. Is he to blame when Dick is napping in the dougout and the entire stadium knows he should be making a trip to the mound? YES.

There is blame all around in this orginization. Starting at the Steinbrenner-lite at the top, to Wayne Krivsky, to now Walt Jockety, all the way down to Dusty.

As much as people wonder why Wayne is "protected" I am starting to wonder about the apparent reluctance of some to point the finger of blame at the Dustomatic. I suspect I know why and it is disgusting.

Great post. The only issue I would take with it is that, while it would have made sense to get Corey, Jr and Phillips out of the top part of the lineup, who would have replaced them? And would those individuals have made a material difference?

Dusty is a putz. No doubt. But this team was doomed from the start. Even if Dusty was able to squeeze 5 more wins from them, all it would have done is give them a worse draft spot for next year. That's why it was dumb to spend that kind of money on a manager and why it was dumb to spend the most money ever on a FA reliever.

Spring~Fields
08-11-2008, 10:19 AM
Is Dusty to blame for every problem the Reds have had? Obviously not. However, he's done absoultey, positivley nothing to try to improve what he does have. In fact, he's done just about everything he can do to make a bad situation worse.

Is he to blame for Jerry Harriston Jr's injury? Of course not. Is he responsible for bringing him back to soon and rushing things? YES.

Is he to blame for Griffey Jr's poor April and May. Of corse not. Is he repsonsible for batting him 3rd day after day despite how it was draging the team down? YES.

Is Dusty to blame for Corey Patterson not being able to hit a bull in the butt with a 2x4? Of coruse not. Is he to blame for giving him 200+ leadoff at bats, most of which were in April and May instead of maxamizing his glove by batting him 8th? YES.

Is Dusty to blame for having two left handed 1st basemen? Of corse not. Is he to blame for burying the productive one at the back of the order (7th) during the month of April and May when the team desperatley needed a productive bat at the top of the lineup? YES.

Is Dusty to blame for Brandon Phillips low OBP and propensity to hit into double plays? Of corse not. Is he to blame for inking him into the 4th spot and trying to cast him as a powerhitter? YES.

Is Dusty to blame for the lineup having some (a bunch of) freeswingers? Of corse not. Is he to blame for preaching "be agressive" and encouraging them to wail away (plate discipline be dammed!). YES.

Is Dusty to blame for Dick Pole apparently not being a very good pitching coach? No. Is he to blame when Dick is napping in the dougout and the entire stadium knows he should be making a trip to the mound? YES.



End of April Standings
Cincinnati 12 17 .414 6 game behind RS 124 RA 139 DIFF -15

End of May Standings
Cincinnati 27 29 .482 8 game behind RS 256 RA 278 DIFF -22

End of June Standings
Cincinnati 39 46 .459 11.5 game behind RS 357 RA 414 DIFF -57

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/aggregate?sort=runs&split=109&group=8&season=2008&seasonType=2&statType=batting&type=reg

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/aggregate?sort=runs&split=110&group=8&season=2008&seasonType=2&statType=batting&type=reg

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/aggregate?sort=runs&split=111&group=8&season=2008&seasonType=2&statType=batting&type=reg

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/aggregate?sort=runs&split=112&group=8&season=2008&seasonType=2&statType=batting&type=reg

Ltlabner
08-11-2008, 10:22 AM
The only issue I would take with it is that, while it would have made sense to get Corey, Jr and Phillips out of the top part of the lineup, who would have replaced them? And would those individuals have made a material difference?

Well, we've discussed it before and I'm not sure we got anywhere.

The three truely productive hitters, Dunn, Votto and EE all had good starts to the year and yet were burried at the bottom of the lineup. Imagine if they had been getting more at bats in the 2, 3 and 4 hole.

Bruce, who has been blah latley, had a monster month but didn't get called up until well after the planet realized CPat was a disaster. Imagine if his hot 1st month would have been April instead?

Imagine if Brandon Phillips was maximized against left handers and hidden against righties?

Would that have made a difference?

I would submit that back in April and May it would have made a huge difference. Sure, the injuries would have hurt. Sure, people coming back to earth would mean that we'd slip in the standings. Sure, the fact is we are a medicore team (if everything goes well) and we'd likely fight our way to the bottom given enough time.

But wouldn't a hot start in April and May been a little nicer than the season being over June 1st?

Wheelhouse
08-11-2008, 10:24 AM
How much depth can you have? The Reds started the year with:

1B Votto (Hatteberg, Valentin)
2B Phillips (Freel, Keppinger)
SS Gonzalez (Keppinger, Castro)
3B Encarnacion (Freel, Keppinger)
C Bako (Ross, Valentin)
LF Dunn (Freel, Patterson)
CF Freel (Patterson)
RF Griffey (Freel, Patterson)

That seems like a pretty deep team to me, except for maybe a power OF bat off the bench. That is not to mention Hairston, who was terrific when called after both Gonzalez and Keppinger got hurt. Having 3 shortstops go down is just bad luck, not lack of depth. And with Griffey gone, the Reds just refuse to look at Dickerson, who could change the OF depth entirely.

Kc61
08-11-2008, 10:44 AM
How much depth can you have? The Reds started the year with:

1B Votto (Hatteberg, Valentin)
2B Phillips (Freel, Keppinger)
SS Gonzalez (Keppinger, Castro)
3B Encarnacion (Freel, Keppinger)
C Bako (Ross, Valentin)
LF Dunn (Freel, Patterson)
CF Freel (Patterson)
RF Griffey (Freel, Patterson)

That seems like a pretty deep team to me, except for maybe a power OF bat off the bench. That is not to mention Hairston, who was terrific when called after both Gonzalez and Keppinger got hurt. Having 3 shortstops go down is just bad luck, not lack of depth. And with Griffey gone, the Reds just refuse to look at Dickerson, who could change the OF depth entirely.

I look at the same players and come to the opposite conclusion.

Once Gonzo went down they should have had a better backup shortstop. They went with Castro as that second level backup and then waived him. A team needs a backup infielder who can be relied upon to start. Once Gonzo was diagnosed, the team should have acquired one.

The back up outfielders were not guys you could rely upon as starters. Freel's 2007 injury made him a question mark. Patterson is strictly a defensive guy.

Catching -- not really a depth issue -- was more the lack of a front-line guy.

Starting pitching -- Veteran starters were Harang, Arroyo, Fogg and Belisle. Reds depended too heavily on the latter two guys.

Bullpen -- Once some injuries kicked in, Maj and Coffey were in the Reds pen.

HokieRed
08-11-2008, 10:48 AM
I'd certainly agree that more depth is needed and that the poor roster construction is part of this team's problem. But the Cardinals were mentioned earlier as a comparison team, and I'd say the superiority of the Cardinals has less to do with depth than it does with the superiority of their very best players. Consider these numbers:
Glaus 21 HR's/79RBI's, .269/.368/.488/.856
Pujols 24/75/.350/.462/.618/1.080
Ludwick 29/84/.306/.384/.610/.994
Ankiel 22/60/.282/.350/.540
Our best players--even our most promising young ones--don't compare at all to that group. It's possible we could have had four players, in a year or so [time for Votto and Bruce to develop], that would have been competitive with the Cardinals' best, but that possibility was lost with a certain trade. In any case, I don't think it's depth alone that is the difference between this club and others. Our best do not measure up very well with other teams' best players (which is why, of course, Dusty has to do absurd things like bat Phillips 4th.)

Spring~Fields
08-11-2008, 11:26 AM
Great post. The only issue I would take with it is that, while it would have made sense to get Corey, Jr and Phillips out of the top part of the lineup, who would have replaced them? And would those individuals have made a material difference?

Dusty is a putz. No doubt. But this team was doomed from the start. Even if Dusty was able to squeeze 5 more wins from them, all it would have done is give them a worse draft spot for next year. That's why it was dumb to spend that kind of money on a manager and why it was dumb to spend the most money ever on a FA reliever.

Here are the facts from April, May, June. Looking at the numbers, who would have been on your lineup card and in what order? I am suggesting that you could have done a better job with the players available in on the lineup card.
Would it have made a material difference in scoring opportunities and chances?



April
BA OBP SLG OPS
Keppinger .312 .361 .431 .793
Dunn .232 .396 .415 .811
Encarnacion .293 .369 .576 .945
Joey Votto .308 .341 .538 .880
B. Phillips .283 .330 .500 .830
K. Griffey Jr. .255 .339 .429 .768
Jay Bruce .??? .??? .??? .???
Paul Bako .310 .388 .507 .895

J. Hairston Jr. .348 .375 .435 .810
Norris Hopper .240 .296 .240 .536
C. Patterson .225 .292 .488 .780
J. Valentin .208 .269 .250 .519
David Ross .200 .200 .300 .500
S. Hatteberg .167 .316 .233 .549

May
BA OBP SLG OPS
Keppinger .400 .447 .543 .990 J. Hairston Jr. .343 .397 .514 .912
Dunn .284 .429 .691 1.120
Joey Votto .281 .385 .528 .913
Encarnacion .172 .228 .247 .475
B. Phillips .292 .342 .557 .898
Jay Bruce .579 .680 .895 1.575
K. Griffey Jr. .250 .336 .360 .696
David Ross .282 .429 .385 .813

J. Valentin .267 .313 .400 .713
S. Hatteberg .222 .211 .278 .488
C. Patterson .180 .180 .197 .377
Paul Bako .186 .262 .305 .567

June
BA OBP SLG OPS
J. Hairston Jr. .302 .339 .472 .811
J. Keppinger .296 .406 .370 .777 J. Cabrera .389 .450 .444 .894
Adam Dunn .161 .342 .425 .768
Encarnacion .294 .422 .603 1.025
Joey Votto .257 .315 .386 .701
Jay Bruce .223 .274 .340 .614 K. Griffey Jr. .205 .370 .425 .794
B. Phillips .262 .304 .374 .678
David Ross .216 .326 .297 .623



J. Valentin .182 .240 .227 .467
C. Patterson .156 .156 .311 .467
Paul Bako .151 .224 .283 .507
Paul Janish .128 .244 .154 .398


Choices were a little more difficult in June.
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/teams/batting?team=cin&season=2008&seasonType=2&split=40&cat=onBasePct&order=true&type=reg

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/teams/batting?team=cin&season=2008&seasonType=2&split=41&cat=onBasePct&order=true&type=reg

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/teams/batting?team=cin&season=2008&seasonType=2&split=42&cat=onBasePct&order=true&type=reg

cincrazy
08-11-2008, 11:30 AM
I'd certainly agree that more depth is needed and that the poor roster construction is part of this team's problem. But the Cardinals were mentioned earlier as a comparison team, and I'd say the superiority of the Cardinals has less to do with depth than it does with the superiority of their very best players. Consider these numbers:
Glaus 21 HR's/79RBI's, .269/.368/.488/.856
Pujols 24/75/.350/.462/.618/1.080
Ludwick 29/84/.306/.384/.610/.994
Ankiel 22/60/.282/.350/.540
Our best players--even our most promising young ones--don't compare at all to that group. It's possible we could have had four players, in a year or so [time for Votto and Bruce to develop], that would have been competitive with the Cardinals' best, but that possibility was lost with a certain trade. In any case, I don't think it's depth alone that is the difference between this club and others. Our best do not measure up very well with other teams' best players (which is why, of course, Dusty has to do absurd things like bat Phillips 4th.)

It's certainly not depth alone that separates the two franchises, I was never trying to imply that. But they lost Chris Carpenter, Mark Mulder, Matt Clement never amounted to anything, and they're still right there in the race. And LaRussa has used several different outfielder's this season. Depth certainly isn't the only reason the Cardinals are better, but it's one of many.

Cyclone792
08-11-2008, 11:35 AM
Of course the Reds need more depth. They need everything.

Better talent, better hitting, better pitching, better defense, better depth, better managing, better scouting, better owning, better everything. Until this organization is churning out 90+ win seasons on an annual basis, there's always going to be some major holes or parts of major holes that need to be filled.

The gravitational pull of the lost decade black hole has completely swallowed this organization. Hopefully the next decade is better than this one.

Spring~Fields
08-11-2008, 11:37 AM
Of course the Reds need more depth. They need everything.

Better talent, better hitting, better pitching, better defense, better depth, better managing, better scouting, better owning, better everything. Until this organization is churning out 90+ win seasons on an annual basis, there's always going to be some major holes or parts of major holes that need to be filled.

The gravitational pull of the lost decade black hole has completely swallowed this organization. Hopefully the next decade is better than this one.

:clap::clap::clap::clap::clap:

Especially in comparison to their main competitors in the central.

WVRedsFan
08-11-2008, 11:54 AM
Dusty didn't just fall off the turnip truck. He's been around long enough to see that the team wasn't as good as it was hyped to be by that particular someone. If he thought this team was ready to contend, he's as bad a talent evaluator as he is a manager. He wanted to get back into managing in the worst way and he accomplished that goal.I agree, but the desire to do something colors your judgement somewhat. Like that shiny new car that you can't afford the payments on. About the third month, you realize you're in deep doo-doo. As the State Farm commercial says, "he's there."

RedlegJake
08-11-2008, 11:54 AM
Health and development plague the Reds roster. AGon, Hairston, Freel, Cabrera, Keppinger, Harang, Burton have all spent considerable time on the sidelines. Junior was gimpy from the start, more from age than health but his legs are fragile.

Bruce, Votto, Volquez, and Cueto have had rookie struggles as they learn and adjust.

EE has simply stalled in development. His D is getting no better, and his offense is average. He's shown a bit more power but I wonder if a better team around him wouldn't push him to better things. Dunn is still a force at the plate but I wonder the same thing - would a truly better lineup put a shine on his game and possibly his subconscious desire? I don't mean to knock Dunn's attitude at all - its just true of most athletes that better competition and better teammates usually bring out the best in them while losing regularly seems to sap them of a little something. With guys like EE and Dunn I just wonder if their careers aren't being affected by the losing and lack of push from a roster of talented teammates. Watch Dunn end up with a team like the Yanks and have a mind blowing year in 2009. Now on to Cordero. I wonder if he doesn;t fall in this category, too. Really good when his team is good and just bad when he plays for a loser. His one really good year was with a team in a playoff hunt. Maybe he loses concentration when he isn't on a good team? Not that that particularly encourages me about a guy costing $46 million.

CPatt, Ross, Valentin, Castro, Bako, Janish, Phillips, Fogg, Belisle, Coffey, Bailey, Thompson, Majewski - that's a lot of roster and energy that's been wasted on guys that either don't have it all or simply aren't ready yet. With the exception of Thompson and Bailey (maybe Janish but Paul is not going to be an everyday SS, perhaps a decent backup) the Reds should have cut ties with the lot of them already. Instead just two of the lot are gone. The rest still take spots and waste time somewhere in the system. Six still waste spots on the Reds 25 man.

As for calling up more from AAA right now, I think Walt will let Louisville alone to win their season title. He wants guys to have a sense of winning and they won't get that in Cincinnati. I think that may be the reason Dickerson isn't up right now. Sending them Bailey is bad enough, do you really want to hurt them?

edabbs44
08-11-2008, 11:55 AM
Here are the facts from April, May, June. Looking at the numbers, who would have been on your lineup card and in what order? I am suggesting that you could have done a better job with the players available in on the lineup card.
Would it have made a material difference in scoring opporutnities and chances?



April
BA OBP SLG OPS
Keppinger .312 .361 .431 .793
Dunn .232 .396 .415 .811
Encarnacion .293 .369 .576 .945
Joey Votto .308 .341 .538 .880
B. Phillips .283 .330 .500 .830
K. Griffey Jr. .255 .339 .429 .768
Jay Bruce .??? .??? .??? .???
Paul Bako .310 .388 .507 .895

J. Hairston Jr. .348 .375 .435 .810
Norris Hopper .240 .296 .240 .536
C. Patterson .225 .292 .488 .780
J. Valentin .208 .269 .250 .519
David Ross .200 .200 .300 .500
S. Hatteberg .167 .316 .233 .549

May
BA OBP SLG OPS
Keppinger .400 .447 .543 .990 J. Hairston Jr. .343 .397 .514 .912
Dunn .284 .429 .691 1.120
Joey Votto .281 .385 .528 .913
Encarnacion .172 .228 .247 .475
K. Griffey Jr. .250 .336 .360 .696
B. Phillips .292 .342 .557 .898
Jay Bruce .579 .680 .895 1.575
David Ross .282 .429 .385 .813

J. Valentin .267 .313 .400 .713
S. Hatteberg .222 .211 .278 .488
C. Patterson .180 .180 .197 .377
Paul Bako .186 .262 .305 .567

June
BA OBP SLG OPS
J. Hairston Jr. .302 .339 .472 .811
J. Keppinger .296 .406 .370 .777 J. Cabrera .389 .450 .444 .894
Adam Dunn .161 .342 .425 .768
Encarnacion .294 .422 .603 1.025
Joey Votto .257 .315 .386 .701
Jay Bruce .223 .274 .340 .614
B. Phillips .262 .304 .374 .678
David Ross .216 .326 .297 .623


K. Griffey Jr. .205 .370 .425 .794
J. Valentin .182 .240 .227 .467
C. Patterson .156 .156 .311 .467
Paul Bako .151 .224 .283 .507
Paul Janish .128 .244 .154 .398


Choices were a little more difficult in June.
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/teams/batting?team=cin&season=2008&seasonType=2&split=40&cat=onBasePct&order=true&type=reg

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/teams/batting?team=cin&season=2008&seasonType=2&split=41&cat=onBasePct&order=true&type=reg

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/teams/batting?team=cin&season=2008&seasonType=2&split=42&cat=onBasePct&order=true&type=reg

I think the fact getting lost in the shuffle is that it is pretty easy to look at the lineup three months later and say that, in some instances, Player X should have been batting higher/lower in the order.

Encarnacion: Penthouse in April and Outhouse in May. At what point would you have pulled the plug and dropped him in the lineup in May? Exactly when the floor fell out?

Votto: On April 15th, Votto awoke with a .616 OPS. If he started the season in the 2 hole, he may have been dropped by the time he got hot. Better yet, was Dusty smart for batting him lower in the order at the start of the season or dumb for not raising him precisely when he started to come around? What exactly was Dusty supposed to do?

And when was Dusty supposed to drop him again in the order? Maybe exactly before he crapped the bed in June and July?

Dusty deserves to get hammered for CPatt. No doubt. I give him less blame for Jr, since I bet that decision involved more than Baker. Phillips versus righties is also on Dusty. But anything else is kind of nit picking. It isn't like he is managing the '27 Yankees into the cellar. I bet the team would play better if they had better players.

OnBaseMachine
08-11-2008, 12:04 PM
I think there is a solid amount of talent on this team with guys like Cueto, Bruce, Volquez, Votto, Burton, Bray, Dunn, Phillips, Harang, Arroyo, and maybe Encarnacion. That's a lot of talent right there but the problem is there are so many useless players on the roster that offset the talent. Guys like Bako, Valentin, Patterson, Fogg, and Majewski are completely useless. Throw in Jeff Keppinger, who isn't useless but is playing out of position. He would be best utilized as a super sub but he's been playing SS everyday and has become a liability lately. The key for Jocketty will be replacing the useless players with average ones and finding a fifth starter to replace Fogg and shortstop and center fielder who can cover some ground. I still don't think this team is very far from competing but it's going to take some sharp moves by Jocketty to get them where he want them to be.

WVRedsFan
08-11-2008, 12:08 PM
I think there is a solid amount of talent on this team with guys like Cueto, Bruce, Volquez, Votto, Burton, Bray, Dunn, Phillips, Harang, Arroyo, and maybe Encarnacion. That's a lot of talent right there but the problem is there are so many useless players on the roster that offset the talent. Guys like Bako, Valentin, Patterson, Fogg, and Majewski are completely useless. Throw in Jeff Keppinger, who isn't useless but is playing out of position. He would be best utilized as a super sub but he's been playing SS everyday and has become a liability lately. The key for Jocketty will be replacing the useless players with average ones and finding a fifth starter to replace Fogg and shortstop and center fielder who can cover some ground. I still don't think this team is very far from competing but it's going to take some sharp moves by Jocketty to get them where he want them to be.

Think about it--the team needs a shortstop, centerfielder, starter, some more relief help, a catcher, and a bench. If Walt can do this, he ought to get some sort of prize.

Spring~Fields
08-11-2008, 12:12 PM
I think the fact getting lost in the shuffle is that it is pretty easy to look at the lineup three months later and say that, .


No no no no :) ........I have a ton of post on the subject starting in April forward.

end of discussion thank you. ;)

who would have been on your lineup card and in what order? I am suggesting that you could have done a better job with the players available in on the lineup card.

I asked you what you would have done with the players that was available and you selectively dismissed it, I can see this is going to another Krivsky this and that thread already.

OnBaseMachine
08-11-2008, 12:13 PM
Think about it--the team needs a shortstop, centerfielder, starter, some more relief help, a catcher, and a bench. If Walt can do this, he ought to get some sort of prize.

The relief help can be fixed in house as the Reds have a few relievers in Triple-A right now who could help. And who knows, Chris Dickerson could possibly fill the center field hole but we'll never know if Jocketty doesn't call him up. Jocketty always seemed to piece together a decent bench so I'm not too worried about that.

nate
08-11-2008, 12:22 PM
I think the fact getting lost in the shuffle is that it is pretty easy to look at the lineup three months later and say that, in some instances, Player X should have been batting higher/lower in the order.

I think the fact getting lost in the shuffle is that most of the lineup construction discussion has been going on all season.

Ltlabner
08-11-2008, 12:26 PM
I think the fact getting lost in the shuffle is that it is pretty easy to look at the lineup three months later and say that, in some instances, Player X should have been batting higher/lower in the order.

These are the numbers, by OPS for the entire month. You can cherry pick a specific date but lets expand the time frame out past a specific at-bat, shall we.


Player Keppenger Votto Griffey JR
April .792OPS (109) .879 (78) .768 (98)
May .990 (32) .913 (89) .696 (100)

So Keppenger got 31 more at bats to produce .087 less points of OPS. Jr got 29 more at bats to produce .111 less points of OPS in the month of April. The only reason Kepps OPS is so high in May is that he only got 32 at bats. But Votto again out produced Jr in May.

The vast majority of Kepps at bats have been in the 2 hole. Jr, obviously in the 3 spot. Votto has less at bats due to his lower position in the lineup and not starting every game. Both of those are on Dustys hands.

Yes, Edwin had a dreadfull May. However, you use that to gloss over the .945OPS in April, 1.025OPS in June and .987OPS in July. The fact still remains he has produced over the corse of the year.

So you really don't have to chase the trends and it isn't back-seat-driving to make the claim that Votto out produced Kepp and Jr yet was burried at the back of the order and got far fewer at bats. And we haven't even scratched the surface with Dunn batting 5th, Bruce in AAA, Patterson at leadoff, etc.

Likely the Reds would have found other ways to lose, but with the anemic offensive machine Dusty was handed, he didn't do us any favors by feeding it low octane gas.

Spring~Fields
08-11-2008, 12:26 PM
Encarnacion: Penthouse in April and Outhouse in May. At what point would you have pulled the plug and dropped him in the lineup in May? Exactly when the floor fell out?

What would you have done ?


Votto: On April 15th, Votto awoke with a .616 OPS. If he started the season in the 2 hole, he may have been dropped by the time he got hot. Better yet, was Dusty smart for batting him lower in the order at the start of the season or dumb for not raising him precisely when he started to come around? What exactly was Dusty supposed to do?

I am interested in what you would have done, I am not interested in what Dusty would have done, I believe that you would have made better choices and decisions, I already said that. Dusty Baker was making this same wrong choices back in Chicago, plenty of articles on the net still to read about his Patterson and Hairston days. 2005 was well before April, May, June of 2008


And when was Dusty supposed to drop him again in the order? Maybe exactly before he crapped the bed in June and July?

Revised updates come out daily, when would you have done those things ?

edabbs44
08-11-2008, 12:32 PM
I think the fact getting lost in the shuffle is that most of the lineup construction discussion has been going on all season.

Then what would everyone had done if Votto had spent the first two weeks of the season giving us a .617 (or whatever it was) OPS in the 2 hole? Would he have remained in the 2 hole? Would he have been dropped?

Lineup construction is not Dusty's strongest suit. But to start pulling out the OPS numbers month by month is tough to do for everyone. It's really easy to point at Votto's numbers for all of April and say he should have been hitting higher. But he was a fiasco for the first two weeks. And no one wants to address that.? Even if Dusty started him in the 2 hole and kept him there the entire month (which is doubtful), would the first two weeks negate any positive influences he would have had in the final two weeks?

edabbs44
08-11-2008, 12:36 PM
What would you have done ?

I'm not the one bashing Baker. What would you have done?


I am interested in what you would have done, I am not interested in what Dusty would have done, I believe that you would have made better choices and decisions, I already said that. Dusty Baker was making this same wrong choices back in Chicago, plenty of articles on the net still to read about his Patterson and Hairston days. 2005 was well before April, May, June of 2008

Again, I'm not the one bashing him. I am the one bashing the August morning QBing going on 4 months later. What should he have done? Rookie starts out of the gates slow. GM brought back the incumbent first baseman. I wonder if many mgrs would have been playing Hatteberg more.

But again...what would you have done with Votto?

Ltlabner
08-11-2008, 12:38 PM
Then what would everyone had done if Votto had spent the first two weeks of the season giving us a .617 (or whatever it was) OPS in the 2 hole? Would he have remained in the 2 hole? Would he have been dropped?

Lineup construction is not Dusty's strongest suit. But to start pulling out the OPS numbers month by month is tough to do for everyone. It's really easy to point at Votto's numbers for all of April and say he should have been hitting higher. But he was a fiasco for the first two weeks. And no one wants to address that.? Even if Dusty started him in the 2 hole and kept him there the entire month (which is doubtful), would the first two weeks negate any positive influences he would have had in the final two weeks?

Edabbs, you can dance around the subject all you want and toss out possible scenarios whereby it wouldn't have made a difference. If anything you are the one arguing for a daily adjusted lineup. I'm arguing for a "plug and play" lineup that mostly goes unchanged (baring injuries or complete disasters, of corse).

The fact remains that higher production getting more at bats over lower production is always better than the reverse.

Nobody here is arguing that Dusty should have tuned the lineup daily. The overall sucess of a baseball offence is best measured across an entire season. Plug the best, highest producing players in the best lineup spots and watch the runs come in.

It's really not much harder than that. Dusty wants to smoke-screen you with talk of speed, and small-ball, and moving players over. But all that does is highlight the fact he doesn't know how to assemble a baseball lineup. Period.

edabbs44
08-11-2008, 12:39 PM
These are the numbers, by OPS for the entire month. You can cherry pick a specific date but lets expand the time frame out past a specific at-bat, shall we.


Player Keppenger Votto Griffey JR
April .792OPS (109) .879 (78) .768 (98)
May .990 (32) .913 (89) .696 (100)

So Keppenger got 31 more at bats to produce .087 less points of OPS. Jr got 29 more at bats to produce .111 less points of OPS in the month of April. The only reason Kepps OPS is so high in May is that he only got 32 at bats. But Votto again out produced Jr in May.

The vast majority of Kepps at bats have been in the 2 hole. Jr, obviously in the 3 spot. Votto has less at bats due to his lower position in the lineup and not starting every game. Both of those are on Dustys hands.

Yes, Edwin had a dreadfull May. However, you use that to gloss over the .945OPS in April, 1.025OPS in June and .987OPS in July. The fact still remains he has produced over the corse of the year.

So you really don't have to chase the trends and it isn't back-seat-driving to make the claim that Votto out produced Kepp and Jr yet was burried at the back of the order and got far fewer at bats. And we haven't even scratched the surface with Dunn batting 5th, Bruce in AAA, Patterson at leadoff, etc.

Likely the Reds would have found other ways to lose, but with the anemic offensive machine Dusty was handed, he didn't do us any favors by feeding it low octane gas.

Would you have kept Votto at the top of the lineup in June/July when Griffey was blowing Joey out of the water?

edabbs44
08-11-2008, 12:42 PM
Edabbs, you can dance around the subject all you want and toss out possible scenarios whereby it wouldn't have made a difference.

The fact remains that higher production, getting more at bats over lower production is always better than the reverse.

Nobody here is arguing that Dusty should have tuned the lineup daily. The overall sucess of a baseball offence is best measured across an entire season. Plug the best, highest producing players in the best lineup spots and watch the runs come in.

It's really not much harder than that. Dusty wants to smoke-screen you with talk of speed, and small-ball, and moving players over. But all that does is highlight the fact he doesn't know how to assemble a baseball lineup. Period.

I guess my point is that it is much easier to determine who the better producers were in April and May when you are making the determinations in August.

Looking at what Jr did in June/July versus Votto's performance shows that it wasn't a slam dunk that Votto would out perform Jr at the start of the season.

Spring~Fields
08-11-2008, 12:45 PM
Lineup construction is not Dusty's strongest suit.

A part of evaluating his personnel, their skills and abilities.

Knowing what his players strengths and weaknesses are, positioning them in a manner to get the most out of or to receive the most out of his players and their skills/talents that he possibly can during random opportunities that are variable on a higher percentage of time.

What more can the man do? and if he can't do that as you are suggesting above?

Ltlabner
08-11-2008, 12:47 PM
Rookie starts out of the gates slow. GM brought back the incumbent first baseman.

I could give a rip about Votto's first two weeks. You plug him in and measure his performance over the corse of a full year. Over the full corse of a year, who is more likely to give you better production at the plate.....Votto or Hatteburg? Or Freel? Or Hopper?

Dusty has at his disposal all sorts of data to tell him exactly what he can expect to see from the likes of Keppenger, Hopper, Hatteburg, Patterson, Freel and whoever else saw time at the top of the lineup. He chose to ignore it in favor of some voodoo gibberish known as Dustyball.

But Votto's a rookie you say? I'm just going back in time to revise history you say? You have a wealth of data showing what Votto actually did in AAA. You also have a wealth of data on a day by day basis to show what Votto is actually doing (so if he tanks you can adjust).

Yes, batting him 2nd is a risk. However, you knew exactly what you had to compare it against (all the other players with long track records). You knew exactly what he had acomplished in the minors. And you knew the percentage chances of one group out performing the other.

edabbs44
08-11-2008, 12:48 PM
A part of evaluating his personnel, their skills and abilities.

Knowing what his players strengths and weaknesses are, positioning them in a manner to get the most out of or to receive the most out of his players and their skills/talents that he possibly can during random opportunities that are variable on a higher percentage of time.

What more can the man do? and if he can't do that as you are suggesting above?

I think Baker is worthless to this team as a manager and I am not a fan of his. And I am not defending him.

However, I do think the picking apart of every decision he makes is flat-out over the top at times.

Spring~Fields
08-11-2008, 12:52 PM
The fact remains that higher production getting more at bats over lower production is always better than the reverse.



Yes, and numerous stats people, including yourself, who have worked long and hard gathering the research and material have accurately showed us that over and over in the past years and this year also and it still holds true today. I suspect that you are working hard to show people who like Baker, they themselves, do not believe in OBP, SLG or OPS and the higher methods of player performance evaluation.

Ltlabner
08-11-2008, 12:53 PM
Would you have kept Votto at the top of the lineup in June/July when Griffey was blowing Joey out of the water?

Yes.

I'd have have Votto in the 2 hole from day 1. Jr always batted third so there would have been no conflict.

And in a world were people actually faced the paper-tiger known as Jr, Dunn would have batted third anyway.

edabbs44
08-11-2008, 12:53 PM
I could give a rip about Votto's first two weeks. You plug him in and measure his performance over the corse of a full year. Over the full corse of a year, who is more likely to give you better production at the plate.....Votto or Hatteburg? Or Freel? Or Hopper?

I agree with you, to an extent.

But why are you bringing Griffey into the mix at this point? With Cincy, his OPS+ was 103. Votto's is 104. In your posts above, you have singled out the first two months of the season in comparing Votto and Griffey. But the next two months were the exact opposite.


So you really don't have to chase the trends and it isn't back-seat-driving to make the claim that Votto out produced Kepp and Jr yet was burried at the back of the order and got far fewer at bats. And we haven't even scratched the surface with Dunn batting 5th, Bruce in AAA, Patterson at leadoff, etc.

Jr outproduced Votto in June/July, yet that fact is going untouched in this conversation. If you want to "plug him in and measure his performance over the corse (sic) of a full year", then do that. Don't single out 2 months.

Ltlabner
08-11-2008, 12:57 PM
Jr outproduced Votto in June/July, yet that fact is going untouched in this conversation. If you want to "plug him in and measure his performance over the corse (sic) of a full year", then do that. Don't single out 2 months.

You do realize you were the one wanting to examine TWO WEEKS of performance in one of your scenarios right?

You do realize that the original context of the conversation was about production at the begining of the season aka APRIL AND MAY right?

You do realize that when disucssing the top of the order, positions 1, 2 (Kepp) and 3 (Jr) pretty much count as THE TOP OF THE ORDER right?

Keep tap dancing. The music is getting faster.

Spring~Fields
08-11-2008, 01:02 PM
However, I do think the picking apart of every decision he makes is flat-out over the top at times.

If someone is picking apart every decision he makes, I haven't seen that.
Of course if that exaggeration were true, then of course you would be right.

But let's not be masking the case against Dusty to cover for ones argument or obsession with the past general managers, that all and everything was the gm’s fault, especially when those absolute arguments against said general managers was flawed because they left out financial facts, that Cincinnati Reds gm's have been under funded against the primary competition since 2000 forward, giving the other side an extreme advantage over them in the market place when it comes to their decisions.

Ltlabner
08-11-2008, 01:06 PM
Yes, and numerous stats people, including yourself, who have worked long and hard gathering the research and material have accurately showed us that over and over in the past years and this year also and it still holds true today. I suspect that you are working hard to show people who like Baker, they themselves, do not believe in OBP, SLG or OPS and the higher methods of player performance evaluation.

Thank you for the compliment, however, I think RedsmanRick, SteelSD and Cyclone would laugh heartly at the notion that I am a "stats person".

My understanding of statistical analysis (regarding baseball anyway) doesn't extend much past the concept of replacement level (VORP) and average production (RAP for example). Well, toss EqA into that group also since it's a far better measure than tradtional BA.

But in general, those guys I mentioned, and others, deserve any and all credit for expanding RZ's collective understanding of measurement tools.

nate
08-11-2008, 01:09 PM
Then what would everyone had done if Votto had spent the first two weeks of the season giving us a .617 (or whatever it was) OPS in the 2 hole? Would he have remained in the 2 hole? Would he have been dropped?

The first problem with your argument begins when you say "everyone."

The second problem is basing it on two weeks of production.


Lineup construction is not Dusty's strongest suit. But to start pulling out the OPS numbers month by month is tough to do for everyone. It's really easy to point at Votto's numbers for all of April and say he should have been hitting higher. But he was a fiasco for the first two weeks. And no one wants to address that.?

Officially addressing it right now:

Two weeks is a really short amount of time with which to judge a hitter. When he OPS .617 for say, two months, let's talk about it.

In other words, your sample size is too small and it wasn't a fiasco.


Even if Dusty started him in the 2 hole and kept him there the entire month (which is doubtful), would the first two weeks negate any positive influences he would have had in the final two weeks?

No.

nate
08-11-2008, 01:11 PM
Again, I'm not the one bashing him. I am the one bashing the August morning QBing going on 4 months later. What should he have done? Rookie starts out of the gates slow. GM brought back the incumbent first baseman. I wonder if many mgrs would have been playing Hatteberg more.

But again...what would you have done with Votto?

Apologies but people have been talking about Dusty's poor lineup construction since the beginning of the season. It's not "August morning QBing going on 4 months later." To continue to say that is, quite frankly, dishonest.

Spring~Fields
08-11-2008, 01:27 PM
I'm not the one bashing Baker. What would you have done?

Again, I'm not the one bashing him. I am the one bashing the August morning QBing going on 4 months later. What should he have done? Rookie starts out of the gates slow. GM brought back the incumbent first baseman. I wonder if many mgrs would have been playing Hatteberg more.

But again...what would you have done with Votto?

Bashing him? that is more overstatement and exaggeration, c'mon.

I have so many posts on here dating back in April forward regarding that, "what would you have done", question, that I and everyone else got tired of it, came close on many times of being told to knock it off, for the rules sake of the board.

I will tell you again :)
I would have batted the highest OBP players in top three spots to get them the most PA/AB, then the highest OBP SLG, and made adjustments for LH or RH pitching. I would have attempted to get the people with the highest on base percentage in front of the guys with the greatest abilitity to drive them in at a higher percentage of time. I also would have reviewed the three year splits/stats and known what my players were capable of per batting position.

If speed would have been my fixation at the top of the order, and if I fancied myself as one that could give good hitting instruction, and was the field boss, I would have worked with Phillips at leadoff. I would have let the numbers dictate to me and would have made adjustments according to those per the OBP and SLG vs LH or RH pitching.

Kc61
08-11-2008, 01:40 PM
The team is 12th in the NL in runs, 14th in hits, 14th in ERA, and 15th in fielding. I don't think it's a batting order issue. I think it's a personnel issue. For this last several weeks, I think it is a depth issue.

If the club had promoted some good young kids, it might have helped because they might have played with enthusiasm that seems missing right now. But the depth guys haven't succeeded.

Patterson has 238 at bats at a .189 average
Bako has 241 at bats at a .216 average.
Fogg pitched 58 innings at a 7.98 ERA
Bailey pitched 36 innings at a 7.93 ERA
Belisle pitched 29 innings at a 7.28 ERA
Coffey pitched 19 innings (17 appearances) at 6.05

These are your depth guys. With the possible exception of Bako, all of these guys were intended to fill out the roster or cover injuries. The performances speak for themselves.

Spring~Fields
08-11-2008, 03:18 PM
Again, I'm not the one bashing him. I am the one bashing the August morning QBing going on 4 months later. What should he have done? Rookie starts out of the gates slow. GM brought back the incumbent first baseman. I wonder if many mgrs would have been playing Hatteberg more.

But again...what would you have done with Votto?

First of all I apologize for assuming that you paid attention to the stats and that you were aware that the current and past career stats were available to each of us, including three year stats for each player. Three stats do a nice job of showing individuals what the player probabilities are.

Or

I believe that you have forgotten that there are three year player stats available, that we can use to make determinations, as well as vs left and right handed pitching, there are also current season and last seven day tools. You are simply in error to imply or to directly state that I or others are just pulling numbers out of the air “four months” later etc. The numbers existed prior to the start of the season, and they can be adjusted and updated throughout the season at any point in that season.

Using the player three stats one can see what the players have done per batting position, of course you only need to weed out the smallest samples to see where they have performed best. It is simply untrue that one would have to wait four months after the fact to know certain information about the batters histories. Baker the manager, and Jocketty the advisor had full access to the knowledge prior to spring training, just as we have as fans, in fact they probably would have had more. During the season one adjusts and adapts for injuries, left handed or right handed pitching, slumps etc.

Many of us were clamoring for Bruce to play center at the start of the season, Bruce along with Votto were a couple of the pre-spring training reasons for optimism along with the Volquez and Cueto additions in spring training. So Bruce should have been a solid choice regardless of his showing at leadoff, and later why it became apparent that the rookie who was to play centerfield was being placed in the leadoff spot in spring training where he struggled, and then again was placed in the leadoff spot at the regular season and again struggled at leadoff, but, it turned out the reason was that the manager has a fixation for the centerfielder to leadoff and the shortstop to bat second.

A reasonable manager might have batted a rookie down in the order to start the season and had his more seasoned players batting leadoff that had the greater on base percentage. Of course this manager had a dilema and a conflict in that both Patterson and Bruce were to play center with Griffey and Dunn playing left and right, so one might say that the manager did make a choice of having a more seasoned player bat leadoff, but he errored in having Patterson as his choice of a veteran over the rookie on the team to begin with.

In no particular order you can see what the players have done over the past and what they did hitting in the various positions. Of course those small sample ones I would ignore.

For Example:
Player stat Phillips
Three year (2005-2007)
Batting #1 .250 .362 .525 .887
Batting #2 .258 .290 .418 .708
Batting #3 .250 .304 .389 .693
Batting #4 .307 .352 .493 .845
Batting #5 .278 .278 .778 1.056
Batting #6 .233 .280 .353 .633
Batting #7 .285 .333 .426 .759
Batting #8 .404 .433 .719 1.152
Batting #9 .176 .286 .353 .639

vs. Left - .322 .364 .529 .893
vs. Right .263 .310 .425 .735

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/splits?playerId=5031&type=batting3

Player stat Keppinger
Three year (2005-2007)
Batting #1 .000 .125 .000 .125
Batting #2 .337 .410 .470 .880
Batting #3 .600 .600 .800 1.400
Batting #4 1.000 1.000 4.000 5.000
Batting #5 .364 .364 .636 1.000
Batting #6 .292 .346 .417 .763
Batting #7 .333 .385 .417 .802
Batting #8 .233 .313 .256 .569
Batting #9 .353 .389 .765 1.154

vs. Left - .323 .387 .521 .908
vs. Right .317 .384 .434 .818

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/splits?playerId=6076&type=batting3

Player stat Dunn
Three year (2005-2007)
Batting #2 .314 .441 .601 1.042
Batting #3 .245 .351 .505 .856
Batting #4 .231 .354 .494 .848
Batting #5 .237 .386 .494 .880
Batting #6 .272 .394 .667 1.061
Batting #7 .294 .333 .882 1.215
Batting #8 .000 .000 .000 .000
Batting #9 .286 .375 .429 .804

vs. Left - .235 .356 .467 .823
vs. Right .254 .391 .559 .950

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/splits?playerId=4808&type=batting3

Player stat Encarncion
Three year (2005-2007)
Batting #1 .333 .333 1.333 1.666
Batting #2 .273 .304 .273 .577
Batting #3 .158 .220 .158 .378
Batting #4 .286 .373 .535 .908
Batting #5 .231 .317 .323 .640
Batting #6 .283 .360 .471 .831
Batting #7 .346 .410 .538 .948
Batting #8 .222 .286 .422 .708
Batting #9 .278 .381 .500 .881

vs. Left - .264 .367 .447 .814
vs. Right .277 .340 .452 .792

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/splits?playerId=5904&type=batting3

Player stat Votto *rookie sample
Three year (2005-2007)
Batting #3 .280 .280 .640 .920
Batting #5 .250 .250 .250 .500
Batting #6 .286 .286 .286 .572
Batting #7 .333 .389 .515 .904
Batting #8 .667 .750 1.333 2.083
Batting #9 .000 .000 .000 .000

vs. Left - .269 .296 .346 .642
vs. Right .345 .387 .638 1.025

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/splits?playerId=28670&type=batting3

Player stat Griffey
Three year (2005-2007)
Batting #1 .333 .333 .333 .666
Batting #2 .256 .340 .411 .751
Batting #3 .279 .353 .522 .875
Batting #4 .281 .366 .565 .931
Batting #5 .292 .393 .333 .726
Batting #7 .500 .500 1.000 1.500
Batting #8 .000 .000 .000 .000
Batting #9 .143 .333 .571 .904

vs. Left - .241 .312 .458 .770
vs. Right .298 .378 .554 .932

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/splits?playerId=2148&type=batting3

Player stat Ross
Three year (2005-2007)
Batting #1 .000 .000 .000 .000
Batting #2 1.000 1.000 1.000 2.000
Batting #3 .500 .667 2.000 2.667
Batting #5 .188 .350 .188 .538
Batting #6 .135 .250 .243 .493
Batting #7 .246 .338 .596 .934
Batting #8 .227 .292 .433 .725
Batting #9 .260 .327 .620 .947

vs. Left - .265 .325 .570 .895
vs. Right .211 .293 .411 .704

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/splits?playerId=5206&type=batting3

Player stat Hatteberg
Three year (2005-2007)
Batting #1 .346 .408 .567 .975
Batting #2 .226 .325 .317 .642
Batting #3 .200 .412 .280 .692
Batting #4 .302 .357 .422 .779
Batting #5 .280 .356 .389 .745
Batting #6 .325 .428 .471 .899
Batting #7 .247 .306 .382 .688
Batting #8 .222 .323 .333 .656
Batting #9 .160 .333 .320 .653

vs. Left - .218 .309 .321 .630
vs. Right .298 .385 .434 .819

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/splits?playerId=3353&type=batting3




Player stat Freel
Three year (2005-2007)
Batting #1 .263 .354 .374 .728
Batting #2 .257 .278 .371 .649
Batting #3 .500 .667 .500 1.167
Batting #4 .000 .000 .000 .000
Batting #6 .375 .375 .625 1.000
Batting #7 .333 .333 .667 1.000
Batting #8 .417 .417 .417 .834
Batting #9 .227 .370 .364 .734

vs. Left - .247 .345 .363 .708
vs. Right .272 .356 .382 .738

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/splits?playerId=4629&type=batting3

Player stat Hopper
Three year (2005-2007)
Batting #1 .343 .395 .404 .799
Batting #2 .329 .364 .397 .761
Batting #3 .000 .000 .000 .000
Batting #4 .500 .500 .500 1.000
Batting #5 1.000 1.000 1.000 2.000
Batting #6 .000 .333 .000 .333
Batting #7 .211 .227 .211 .438
Batting #8 .455 .500 .727 1.227
Batting #9 .343 .378 .400 .778

vs. Left - .386 .423 .492 .915
vs. Right .299 .352 .336 .688

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/splits?playerId=28554

Player stat Valentin
Three year (2005-2007)
Batting #1 1.000 1.000 1.000 2.000
Batting #2 .000 .333 .000 .333
Batting #3 .333 .333 .333 .666
Batting #4 .000 .167 .000 .167
Batting #5 .216 .231 .324 .555
Batting #6 .325 .386 .447 .833
Batting #7 .280 .343 .452 .795
Batting #8 .273 .338 .475 .813
Batting #9 .247 .299 .449 .748

vs. Left - .207 .343 .345 .688
vs. Right .286 .335 .464 .799

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/splits?playerId=3754&type=batting3

Player stat Patterson
Three year (2005-2007)
Batting #1 .212 .256 .338 .594
Batting #2 .260 .286 .386 .672
Batting #3 .355 .355 .581 .936
Batting #5 .333 .333 .333 .666
Batting #6 .303 .335 .426 .761
Batting #7 .272 .320 .475 .795
Batting #8 .200 .253 .302 .555
Batting #9 .248 .271 .360 .631

vs. Left - .234 .268 .365 .633
vs. Right .262 .300 .403 .703

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/splits?playerId=4239&type=batting3

Player stat Bako
Three year (2005-2007)
Batting #3 .000 .000 .000 .000
Batting #4 1.000 1.000 1.000 2.000
Batting #7 .188 .243 .203 .446
Batting #8 .180 .263 .223 .486
Batting #9 .252 .314 .294 .608

vs. Left - .200 .238 .225 .463
vs. Right .214 .286 .252 .538

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/splits?playerId=3829&type=batting3

Player stat Hairston Jr.
Three year (2005-2007)
Batting #1 .250 .324 .363 .687
Batting #2 .200 .267 .274 .541
Batting #3 .000 .000 .000 .000
Batting #4 1.000 1.000 1.000 2.000
Batting #5 1.000 1.000 2.000 3.000
Batting #6 .238 .273 .429 .702
Batting #7 .115 .179 .115 .294
Batting #8 .244 .316 .291 .607
Batting #9 .205 .273 .273 .546

vs. Left - .222 .274 .302 .576
vs. Right .238 .318 .337 .655

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/splits?playerId=3966&type=batting3

Tom Servo
08-11-2008, 03:23 PM
Well atleast we still have Adam Du...



oh wait.