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Ahhhorsepoo
08-14-2008, 03:25 PM
he will increase in runs and rbi's in the future as others around him are also getting on base and driving in runs..

btw i thought your "Stats" said dunn was above average now you are actually backtracking...

Ahhhorsepoo
08-14-2008, 03:26 PM
Again, you just don't get it, even when it's right in front of your face:

"If you want to compare him to the current gold standard defender in LF (Carl Crawford), Dunn leads 22 runs above position compared to -8.2 for Crawford."

There's your 30 RUNS - not plays, RUNS.

Now, to your DEFENSE claims:

"Now, you're using RZR for your "system" so let's play off that. In 2007, when we equalize for Dunn's 259 BIZ chances, Carl Crawford might have produced 226 BIZ Outs versus Dunn's 214. That's a difference of 12. Then we get to OOZ plays and assuming the same percentage of plays go to that area of the field, we get an advantage to Crawford of about 6 OOZ plays. Now, let's just disregard the fact that these Out-of-Zone plays (OOZ) cannot be expected from your average fielder and work on the assumption that they should be expected.

What we have is a total of 18 plays Carl Crawford made in 2007 that Adam Dunn didn't regardless of ballpark and defensive positioning. And as Crawford produced 3 more Innings than Dunn did in the field, we'll just round that off to 20 plays; or one play every 8 games.

Does that get us to 20 Runs? No. No way in Hades. Does that get us to 15 Runs? No. We're talking about at least 75% BIZ "misses" versus 25% OOZ "misses" and frankly the BIZ misses shouldn't be turning into Doubles or Triples all that often. What we also should be doing is discounting the value of OOZ misses as they're not plays we expect an average fielder to make. They're on the periphery and should be assigned, at best, as marginal Fielding Chances to any defender. When we start to compare Fielders by plays they can't be reasonably expected to make, we run into severe issues on top of other severe issues."

So, 20 PLAYS versus 30 RUNS. NOT EVEN CLOSE.
Also this year Dunn increased his Defense to about average, which didn't take much to shorten the gap between him and Crawford.
On offense, Crawford would have to learn how to take a walk - something he'll NEVER do - and increase his RBI and Runs - which I don't know how he magically can since he already has a much higher BA and speed, etc?!?! What's the deal?!?!

PEACE

-BLEEDS

OOZ are not subjective how?

redsbuckeye
08-14-2008, 03:33 PM
OOZ are not subjective how?

Zone
The areas on a ballfield in which at least 50% of batted balls are handled for outs. Zones are standardized and defined separately for each position.

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/statpages/glossary/#zone

Arbitrary maybe, but not subjective.

BLEEDS
08-14-2008, 03:34 PM
OOZ are not subjective how?

less subjective than the "Poo Eye Test" ?!?

This even GAVE you the fact that they should be ASSUMED, when obviously they aren't, and it's STILL not close...

REPEATING:
"What we have is a total of 18 plays Carl Crawford made in 2007 that Adam Dunn didn't regardless of ballpark and defensive positioning. And as Crawford produced 3 more Innings than Dunn did in the field, we'll just round that off to 20 plays; or one play every 8 games."

But keep saying it, The Best Defense negates The Best Offense, I'm sure it will make it true (NOT!).

PEACE

-BLEEDS

OUReds
08-14-2008, 03:35 PM
there isnt one stat to use per say.. but stats only tell you part of it.. you have to know the context(other stats such as BA with RISP, and such) help clear up the context....

look stats do help you get an understanding.. but just because my gpa is 3.5 in biomedical engineering.. doesn't mean that I actually still remember the coursework.. my stats say that is great.. but if you ask me some of the complex series and sequence calculus stuff i forget that..

Ok, what would be a better stat to use given the context of your post "BTW Bleeds.. AGAIN Dunn had 4 men left on base.. I hope you miss that.." clearly implying that Dunn routinely fails to produce with the bases loaded. I tend to think giving Dunn's offensive numbers with the bases loaded fits the context perfectly.

Call me crazy, but in general I think opinions backed up with evidence and objective analysis superior then those.... that aren't.

Ahhhorsepoo
08-14-2008, 03:40 PM
I wasnt just meaning him.. i was saying i hope he misses having people be left on base.. something the reds have done for YEARS with the hack n whack approach at the plate..

It's not just my eyes that are 20/15 or better btw.. that say he is terrible.. it is many many many people who watch him game in and game out that know he should get to more balls..

redsbuckeye
08-14-2008, 03:42 PM
It's not just my eyes that are 20/15 or better btw.. that say he is terrible.. it is many many many people who watch him game in and game out that know he should get to more balls..

And that's not subjective how?

BLEEDS
08-14-2008, 03:51 PM
but just because my gpa is 3.5 in biomedical engineering.. doesn't mean that I actually still remember the coursework



It's not just my eyes that are 20/15 or better btw..

So you got Lasik and went to Purdue or Iowa State - that makes you an expert on Baseball how? I hope that wasn't an appeal to authority, BWAHAHAH!!!

You can't understand Calculus, so you went the Chemistry route, we get it. Perhaps that's why you can't follow Baseball Metrics.

Book Smart, but Baseball "Not So Smart".

PEACE

-BLEEDS

Ahhhorsepoo
08-14-2008, 04:27 PM
please don't tell me i don't understand math.. that couldn't be further from the truth.. unless you got a masters in mathematics or higher, i am just as educated on the subject and its applications as anyone..

there is a reason i went the engineering route.. maybe its the fact that i didnt miss a math question on the SAT or ACT.....

BLEEDS
08-14-2008, 04:53 PM
please don't tell me i don't understand math.. that couldn't be further from the truth.. unless you got a masters in mathematics or higher, i am just as educated on the subject and its applications as anyone..

there is a reason i went the engineering route.. maybe its the fact that i didnt miss a math question on the SAT or ACT.....

Okay, you don't understand Baseball Math. Or choose to ignore it.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

levydl
08-14-2008, 05:12 PM
I wasnt just meaning him.. i was saying i hope he misses having people be left on base.. something the reds have done for YEARS with the hack n whack approach at the plate..

It's not just my eyes that are 20/15 or better btw.. that say he is terrible.. it is many many many people who watch him game in and game out that know he should get to more balls..

I love it how you think you're one of the few people on this board that watches the games. As if watching baseball and using statistics to help get a better idea of how players are performing are somehow mutually exclusive.

seligstinks
08-15-2008, 02:11 AM
If Dunn was willing to re-sign with the Reds for $20 mil or less a year, and less than 5 years, then the Reds have made a HuGE mistake by not re-signing Dunn. But I guess the greedy owners think they have to make huge profits of $30-$40 million a year from the team.

redsbuckeye
08-15-2008, 08:17 AM
If Dunn was willing to re-sign with the Reds for $20 mil or less a year, and less than 5 years, then the Reds have made a HuGE mistake by not re-signing Dunn. But I guess the greedy owners think they have to make huge profits of $30-$40 million a year from the team.

20 mil would have been steep for Dunn, I even would have balked at that. I'm thinking 16 is good.

But, really, in free agency crazy things happen.

Ahhhorsepoo
08-15-2008, 10:09 AM
12 is the absolute max i would have paid for the guy.. he does somethings offensively.. but not enough to be in the elite payroll.. NO WHERE NEAR ENOUGH..

Nasty_Boy
08-15-2008, 10:11 AM
Put better guys around around him and you'll see those "elite" numbers you speak of.

Ahhhorsepoo
08-15-2008, 10:17 AM
wait a minute.. i thought when i said carl crawford would do better now with his lineup people said the lineup around them doesn't matter..

the other thing is that offense is only part of the game.. those "elite" hitters.. Pujols, A-Rod, Howard, Chipper Jones, at this point Josh Hamilton, Sizemore.. all play at least good defense.. tho most of them play GG caliber defense..

redsbuckeye
08-15-2008, 10:18 AM
12 is the absolute max i would have paid for the guy.. he does somethings offensively.. but not enough to be in the elite payroll.. NO WHERE NEAR ENOUGH..

You think 16 is "elite"? What about the guys making well over 20 mil?

Ahhhorsepoo
08-15-2008, 10:37 AM
only 3 people in baseball are making 20 mil this year.. jeter, a-rod and giambi.. giambi obviously is overpaid.. but the other two.. what jeter is declining in skill his leadership more than makes up for it..

the only other guys making over 16 mil...
Man-Ram.. one of the best pure hitters of our generation.. and a better OF than Dunn
Ichiro.... definition of leadoff hitter.. GG outfield..
Johan Santana.. proof that you must over pay sometimes, but still a 2x cy young winner..
Todd Helton.. Plate production has dropped off.. but still is a great bat in the lineup when healthy.. GG 1B..
Carlos Beltran.. 30/30 guy.. power/speed great combination.. GG outfielder..
Torii Hunter.. again good power/speed combination (not on the likes of beltran or soriano but still good.. GG OF'er..
Bobby Abreu.. Yankees overpaid slightly to get this 30/30 guy in their lineup.. but also a GG winner..
Delgado.. Mets overpaid for a former silver slugger GG 1B player, but still not a bad player.. just overpaid..
Pettite.. while not the top name you think of.. still on of the best pitchers in the league year in and year out.. yanks did overpay on this contract though a little bit..
Zambrano.. a pretty darn good pitcher.. turning in a very under the radar great year..

those are the only players making over 16 mil... just to clarify..

Nasty_Boy
08-15-2008, 10:39 AM
Did I just see Howard's name mentioned with the "good" defenders?

:laugh:

Ahhhorsepoo
08-15-2008, 10:46 AM
Nasty him at first is far superior to Dunns.. he is by no means great.. but average to good is a great place for him.. he is alot better than people think..

redsbuckeye
08-15-2008, 11:14 AM
only 3 people in baseball are making 20 mil this year.. jeter, a-rod and giambi.. giambi obviously is overpaid.. but the other two.. what jeter is declining in skill his leadership more than makes up for it..

the only other guys making over 16 mil...
Man-Ram.. one of the best pure hitters of our generation.. and a better OF than Dunn
Ichiro.... definition of leadoff hitter.. GG outfield..
Johan Santana.. proof that you must over pay sometimes, but still a 2x cy young winner..
Todd Helton.. Plate production has dropped off.. but still is a great bat in the lineup when healthy.. GG 1B..
Carlos Beltran.. 30/30 guy.. power/speed great combination.. GG outfielder..
Torii Hunter.. again good power/speed combination (not on the likes of beltran or soriano but still good.. GG OF'er..
Bobby Abreu.. Yankees overpaid slightly to get this 30/30 guy in their lineup.. but also a GG winner..
Delgado.. Mets overpaid for a former silver slugger GG 1B player, but still not a bad player.. just overpaid..
Pettite.. while not the top name you think of.. still on of the best pitchers in the league year in and year out.. yanks did overpay on this contract though a little bit..
Zambrano.. a pretty darn good pitcher.. turning in a very under the radar great year..

those are the only players making over 16 mil... just to clarify..

First thing's first, tell me how many wins or runs Jeter's leadership is worth. Leadership is one of those ideas that people use to add non-existent value to a guy. Jeter is paid to play baseball, not be a leader. Managers and coaches are paid to be leaders.

Also, it's dishonest to compare a guy making 16 million to guys who are making more than that. Duh, the guys making more are expected to be more productive.

And I said in the other thread I was expecting 13-16 million for Dunn, so the 16 was the max.

Manny also makes 20 million by the way and will probably be making 23 or more next year, so let's can that stupid comparison (yes, Manny's better than Dunn).

redsbuckeye
08-15-2008, 11:17 AM
Nasty him at first is far superior to Dunns.. he is by no means great.. but average to good is a great place for him.. he is alot better than people think..

Not only his howard less than average but he's barely above replacement.

Ahhhorsepoo
08-15-2008, 11:25 AM
I was telling you why he wasnt worth 16.. those guys are all above dunn.. that was why i said what they were worth..

redsbuckeye
08-15-2008, 11:47 AM
I was telling you why he wasnt worth 16.. those guys are all above dunn.. that was why i said what they were worth..

You were telling me he wasn't worth 16 (my max, let me clarify) by comparing him to guys who make more than that? And you think it's a valid comparison?

Huh?

Ahhhorsepoo
08-15-2008, 12:03 PM
no.. 4 of those guys make right at 16 mil.. and 3 more are in the 16-17 mil range..

you dont have to disagree with everything i say.. its ok to agree on some things..

redsbuckeye
08-15-2008, 12:09 PM
you dont have to disagree with everything i say.. its ok to agree on some things..

I agree to this.