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traderumor
08-12-2008, 11:28 PM
Glaus, Ankiel, Pujols, and Ludwick are probably the top 4 hitters in the NL this year.Add Dunn in LF and they have just reloaded to scary level on offense again. LaRussa playing Duncan in LF the last two years and watching him butcher the position is either nepotism or saying he cares more about the bat than the D in that corner, just like any other team should. And with the other cheap options you mention, they have the cash to bring in a FA and improve the pitching. Add a fade toward the .500 mark for the rest of the season, and they will be hungry and ready to make a splash after overachieving for most of this year.

I know you follow the Cardinals closer than other opponents, but if any team in our division makes sense to go after Dunn, it is them.

vaticanplum
08-12-2008, 11:32 PM
Glaus, Ankiel, Pujols, and Ludwick are probably the top 4 hitters in the NL this year.

Chipper Jones? Chase Utley? Nate mcLouth?

MWM
08-12-2008, 11:42 PM
So again, the question becomes these players or sandwich picks. Next year's draft class is supposed to be average at best, so don't think there's not a lot of risk in hoping those sandwich picks pan out.

Put it this way. If the Reds had the picks right now, how would folks feel about trading 2 of the top 40 picks in the draft for these players? Some might like it, I don't. I'd rather have the picks.

westofyou
08-12-2008, 11:42 PM
Chipper Jones? Chase Utley? Nate mcLouth?

But they don't have birds on their shirts.

lollipopcurve
08-12-2008, 11:47 PM
2 of the top 40 picks

Not necessarily. If a team with a protected 1st rounder (bottom half of finishers in 08) signs Dunn, his team would receive a supplemental pick (in the 30s) and a second rounder (well beyond #40).

I'll take Buck, Owings and another over that possibility every single time.

Screwball
08-12-2008, 11:55 PM
Glaus, Ankiel, Pujols, and Ludwick are probably the top 4 hitters in the NL this year.

Wow. Just, wow.

Lance Berkman (170 OPS+), Chipper Jones (183 OPS+), and Matt Holliday (160 OPS+) are all having better years than Ankiel (133 OPS+), Glaus (125 OPS+), and Ludwick (157 OPS+). And as far as Ankiel and Glaus are concerned, it's laughable to suggest they're anwhere near the first three I mentioned.

Patrick Bateman
08-13-2008, 12:00 AM
Wow. Just, wow.

Lance Berkman (170 OPS+), Chipper Jones (183 OPS+), and Matt Holliday (160 OPS+) are all having better years than Ankiel (133 OPS+), Glaus (125 OPS+), and Ludwick (157 OPS+). And as far as Ankiel and Glaus are concerned, it's laughable to suggest they're anwhere near the first three I mentioned.

As hyperbolic as the statement was, those 4 guys have all been dynamite this year. The Cards really don't need a mashing left fielder as much as they need pitching. They have casted mostly bottom of the rotation type guys (and horrednous relievers) this year and found success through their big hitters. I don't think Dunn is a sensical target for the Cards (as from a defensive standpoint, they are better off having the big bodied Ankiel and Ludwick on the corners). Their money should be allocated in other areas.

Consider that Dunn's OPS+ this year is 131. Their line-up so far this year is like having 4 guys near, or better than Dunn in their line-up. We've been happy to sport 1 of those.

Screwball
08-13-2008, 12:09 AM
As hyperbolic as the statement was, those 4 guys have all been dynamite this year. The Cards really don't need a mashing left fielder as much as they need pitching. They have casted mostly bottom of the rotation type guys (and horrednous relievers) this year and found success through their big hitters. I don't think Dunn is a sensical target for the Cards. Their money should be allocated in other areas.

Consider that Dunn's OPS+ this year is 131. Their line-up so far this year is like having 4 guys near, or better than Dunn in their line-up. We've been happy to sport 1 of those.

I take no exception to the statement they're having dynamite years. But a statement like "probably top 4 hitters in the NL" is absurd.

Also, I'm not so sure I'd be counting on Ludwick to replicate his 2008 in 2009. This could very well be a career year for him, and a big regression could be in store next year. Will that kill the Cards' offense? No. But they'd be scary good with another virtually guaranteed .900 OPS in the lineup in Adam Dunn. *ediit* Good point on them basically having 4 Adam Dunns (or better) this season. But as I just mentioned above, about the only one that's really sustained this succes in the past is Glaus (besides Pujols, of course). Perhaps Ankiel and Ludwick do it again next year, but I just don't see it.

However, I do agree with you that pitching should be their target in the offseason. Give that rotation Ben Sheets or C.C. Sabbathia, and things start to get real interesting in St. Louis.

OldXOhio
08-13-2008, 12:09 AM
Glaus, Ankiel, Pujols, and Ludwick are probably the top 4 hitters in the NL this year.

George Grande ladies and gentlemen.

Ltlabner
08-13-2008, 12:24 AM
Glaus, Ankiel, Pujols, and Ludwick are probably the top 4 hitters in the NL this year.


# YEAR NAME TEAM PA EqA OBP SLG VORP RAR RAP
1. 2008 Albert Pujols SLN 467 .370 .460 .613 64.8 72.6 53.4
2. 2008 Chipper Jones ATL 394 .360 .467 .599 58.5 54.7 41.9
3. 2008 Lance Berkman HOU 493 .344 .434 .598 64.4 61.7 40.3
4. 2008 Matt Holliday COL 463 .340 .434 .598 57.6 55.5 37.3

One out of four isn't bad, I suppose.


# YEAR NAME TEAM PA EqA OBP SLG VORP RAR RAP
5. 2008 Ryan Ludwick SLN 448 .333 .383 .607 44.3 53.1 35
25. 2008 Rick Ankiel SLN 398 .303 .354 .541 30.5 32.3 18.3
30. 2008 Troy Glaus SLN 494 .298 .368 .488 26.8 36.4 17.5

Weren't too far off on Ludwick, but missed by a mile on the other two.

But I would agree that those are 4 mighty good hitters.

MississippiRed
08-13-2008, 12:39 AM
Someone may have mentioned this (I didn't see it), but it was so refreshing to hear the Arizona announcers talking so positively about Adam Dunn during their game. It was about power, obp, consistency, scaring the other team, etc. What could have been.

flyer85
08-13-2008, 12:43 AM
Someone may have mentioned this (I didn't see it), but it was so refreshing to hear the Arizona announcers talking so positively about Adam Dunn during their game. It was about power, obp, consistency, scaring the other team, etc. What could have been.they obviously need Marty to set them straight

CTA513
08-13-2008, 12:45 AM
Someone may have mentioned this (I didn't see it), but it was so refreshing to hear the Arizona announcers talking so positively about Adam Dunn during their game. It was about power, obp, consistency, scaring the other team, etc. What could have been.

Mark Grace seems to like him from the way he talked about him in the past.

Team Clark
08-13-2008, 12:55 AM
Mark Grace seems to like him from the way he talked about him in the past.

It's early. Wait 'til Marty gets ahold of Gracie. :D

westofyou
08-13-2008, 12:58 AM
they obviously need Marty to set them straight

Marty also thinks the band Chicago is an exceptional example of fine music.

Opinions are like..............well you know... and they all stink too.

OnBaseMachine
08-13-2008, 01:20 AM
But they don't have birds on their shirts.

:beerme:

nate
08-13-2008, 09:44 AM
Marty also thinks the band Chicago is an exceptional example of fine music.

Opinions are like..............well you know... and they all stink too.

Marty and Peter Cetera do kind of have the same hairdo.

nate
08-13-2008, 09:44 AM
You guys all piled on FCB before I got here!

I never get to have a good time...

Raisor
08-13-2008, 11:03 AM
On the game thread



I guess the question is... and maybe this should be addressed on the 2nd Dunn traded thread... but to those that were against the trade, are you hoping that the Reds fail - to justified your anger? (I'm sorry, but I can't, I'm a Reds fan, not a player fan - whomever wears the red wishbone "C" I'll root for):confused:

Of course I hope the Reds win. I just think that, unless the Reds now totally rebuild, I don't see a light at the end of the tunnel right now.

Falls City Beer
08-13-2008, 11:11 AM
Consider that Dunn's OPS+ this year is 131. Their line-up so far this year is like having 4 guys near, or better than Dunn in their line-up. We've been happy to sport 1 of those.

Yeah, I pull those names out of the air, didn't check the numbers, yet it turns out those four are still four of the top 10-12 hitters in the league this season.

Man, I gotta quit that hyperbole to make a point!

The Cards casually get 4 guys in one lineup who are producing numbers virtually never gotten by a single Red in their history.

And folks wonder why I have faith in Walt Jocketty.

nate
08-13-2008, 11:38 AM
FJM had an amusing counterpoint (http://www.firejoemorgan.com/2008/08/pointless-ode-to-big-donkey.html) to the P-Doc column.

WARNING: Adult Language...you'll have to click on over to read it.

westofyou
08-13-2008, 11:45 AM
FJM had an amusing counterpoint (http://www.firejoemorgan.com/2008/08/pointless-ode-to-big-donkey.html) to the P-Doc column.

WARNING: Adult Language...you'll have to click on over to read it.


The Reds, who are exciting only when they're not playing, traded Adam Dunn to the Arizona Diamondbacks Monday for a 23-year-old Class-A starting pitcher named Dallas Buck who, in another life, died in old Western movies...As insignificant as Dunn was to winning here, 40 homers and 100 RBI don't appear magically every March.

Nobody was winning in Cincinnati. Maybe Dunn was "insignificant to winning" (?) because his team sucked, and Dusty Baker chews a toothpick that makes him dumber. I'll give Daugherty this: it takes some pretty serious ballzos (an Italian word meaning "balls") to point out Dunn's massive productive abilities, and casually dismiss the notion that he might have been helping his team win in the same sentence. I look forward to reading Mr. Daugherty's new book: "Thousands and Thousands of Delicious Slices of Mouth-Watering Pizza That I've Eaten: I Hate Pizza."

Stop reading this, and call your mother or listen to Wowee Zowee or play some table tennis or whatever gets you through the day.


Black Out:

Count to ten and read
Until the lights begin to bleed
Lights; til you actually a-see the rays
And your thoughts they start turning
Tells you lessons that you're learning
No one has a clue

OnBaseMachine
08-13-2008, 11:46 AM
From what I'm hearing, the other player to be named is switch-hitting catcher Wilkin Castillo. Castillo has had a down year offensively, but something that's interesting is here's a catcher who has played every other position (besides pitching) except for first base and center.

http://www.thelotd.com/ctrent/blog

flyer85
08-13-2008, 11:48 AM
From what I'm hearing, the other player to be named is switch-hitting catcher Wilkin Castillo. Castillo has had a down year offensively, but something that's interesting is here's a catcher who has played every other position (besides pitching) except for first base and center.

http://www.thelotd.com/ctrent/blog
there is nothing interesting about Castillo

OnBaseMachine
08-13-2008, 11:49 AM
Reds general manager Walt Jocketty has been unavailable for comment since the Dunn trade. But he said last week that the Reds would not trade their young players in effort to reshape the club.

"That would defeat our purpose," he said.

http://news.cincinnati.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080813/SPT04/808130390/1071

Raisor
08-13-2008, 11:50 AM
Wilkin Castillo

http://minors.baseball-reference.com/players.cgi?pid=2478

wolfboy
08-13-2008, 11:52 AM
From what I'm hearing, the other player to be named is switch-hitting catcher Wilkin Castillo. Castillo has had a down year offensively, but something that's interesting is here's a catcher who has played every other position (besides pitching) except for first base and center.

http://www.thelotd.com/ctrent/blog

Javier Valentin had a better OPS in the minors than Castillo and played 3B, 1B and C. Oh...and he's a switch hitter too.

I really hope that Castillo can actually catch.

flyer85
08-13-2008, 11:52 AM
Wilkin Castillo

http://minors.baseball-reference.com/players.cgi?pid=2478I had previously perused his stats. His upside would be as a backup.

princeton
08-13-2008, 11:52 AM
From what I'm hearing, the other player to be named is switch-hitting catcher Wilkin Castillo. Castillo has had a down year offensively, but something that's interesting is here's a catcher who has played every other position (besides pitching) except for first base and center.

http://www.thelotd.com/ctrent/blog

that'd be bad.

the trade would thus be less than the value of two compensation picks, although we saved the cash required to sign those two picks, plus the cash that the D-backs picked up from Dunn's contract.

Dunn for pile o' cash.

lollipopcurve
08-13-2008, 11:54 AM
there is nothing interesting about Castillo

Switch-hitting catcher who plays infield also. Better bat from the left side. Hit over .300 with 30+ doubles as a 23-year-old in the Southern league last year. Stole 18 bases that year.

Throws out a high percentage of base stealers.

Was ranked the Dbacks' 14-best prospect last year by BA -- before AZ started dealing with Oakland. Remember, they were considered a strong system.

Catching is hard to find. A young guy with this profile looks real usable to me. As a Dominican, he may work well with Volquez/Cueto. Solid addition to the trade.

westofyou
08-13-2008, 11:57 AM
I had previously perused his stats. His upside would be as a backup.

Or as Eli Marrero V2.0

flyer85
08-13-2008, 11:58 AM
Switch-hitting catcher who plays infield also. Better bat from the left side. Hit over .300 with 30+ doubles as a 23-year-old in the Southern league last year. Stole 18 bases that year.

Throws out a high percentage of base stealers.

Was ranked the Dbacks' 14-best prospect last year by BA -- before AZ started dealing with Oakland. Remember, they were considered a strong system.

Catching is hard to find. A young guy with this profile looks real usable to me. As a Dominican, he may work well with Volquez/Cueto. Solid addition to the trade.Larue once had a year at AA where he hit .365

he will translate to a middling average, no power and no walks player. If his defense is good his potential is as a backup catcher ... fodder

RedsManRick
08-13-2008, 11:59 AM
That sounds like a darn good comp woy.

flyer85
08-13-2008, 12:01 PM
Or as Eli Marrero V2.0Marrero showed a lot of pop in the minors(SLG 453,had 20+ HRs twice) ... Castillo has shown none(396 SLG high of 6 HRs).

OnBaseMachine
08-13-2008, 12:02 PM
Castillo isn't official yet. For all we know Trent is basing this off Daugherty's comments.

lollipopcurve
08-13-2008, 12:05 PM
as a backup catcher ... fodder

Backup catchers are a broken finger from starting. And, as should be well-known by now, catchers are pretty scarce. To have a 24 year old who plays solid defense and hits LH under cheap control for several years is a good thing.

Then again, I forgot that every asset acquired in any transaction must be in the top 10% of his position group in all of pro ball in order to avoid being kicked to the curb by this crowd.

princeton
08-13-2008, 12:06 PM
Walt's not one for asking for players that are spiking upward, is he?

"Gimme 2 or 3 struggling players, sore or no, plus a lotta money please."

flyer85
08-13-2008, 12:09 PM
Walt's not one for asking for players that are spiking upward, is he?

"Gimme 2 or 3 struggling players, sore or no, plus a lotta money please."in this case he took what he could get. Owings at age 25 is interesting ... as much because of his bat. He could have hit cleanup last night for the Reds.

lollipopcurve
08-13-2008, 12:11 PM
Walt's not one for asking for players that are spiking upward, is he?

Players coming off injuries can also be undervalued.

My concern here is that the Reds have good medical info on Buck and Owings.

wolfboy
08-13-2008, 12:12 PM
in this case he took what he could get. Owings at age 25 is interesting ... as much because of his bat. He could have hit cleanup last night for the Reds.

That's how this boils down for me. Owings is interesting (poss. as a bullpen arm, poss. as a bat). I doubt Buck goes anywhere above AA. Castillo could be a backup catcher if he plays the position well. It's as much of a return as I could expect to come back in a Dunn trade at this point.

flyer85
08-13-2008, 12:16 PM
That's how this boils down for me. Owings is interesting (poss. as a bullpen arm, poss. as a bat). I doubt Buck goes anywhere above AA. Castillo could be a backup catcher if he plays the position well. It's as much of a return as I could expect to come back in a Dunn trade at this point.if owings doesn't work out as a starter I would attempt to find him a position before making him a reliever. dude can rake.

wolfboy
08-13-2008, 12:24 PM
if owings doesn't work out as a starter I would attempt to find him a position before making him a reliever. dude can rake.

I absolutely agree. I was trying to say that it's unlikely that he makes it as a starter. I've read that he only has 2 pitches and is more suited to bullpen work.

The only reason I think he's a decent return is because he can rake.

westofyou
08-13-2008, 12:27 PM
Marrero showed a lot of pop in the minors(SLG 453,had 20+ HRs twice) ... Castillo has shown none(396 SLG high of 6 HRs).

Offense has also decreased since then (as testing has increased) as for the value of a catcher... this franchise needs catchers, and most of them aren't Johnny Bench, and if one appears that can play other positions then that leverages your bench to allow for a different makeup then if all the guy does is catch. There has to be some value in other aspects his game then just slugging, and being a multi positional catcher with no service time isn't exactly something the Reds have now or lately.

edabbs44
08-13-2008, 12:46 PM
Backup catchers are a broken finger from starting. And, as should be well-known by now, catchers are pretty scarce. To have a 24 year old who plays solid defense and hits LH under cheap control for several years is a good thing.

Then again, I forgot that every asset acquired in any transaction must be in the top 10% of his position group in all of pro ball in order to avoid being kicked to the curb by this crowd.

Excellent post.

jmcclain19
08-13-2008, 01:10 PM
Dunn had a nice 1st night as a Dback

http://www.azcentral.com/i/sized/6/0/3/e298/j350/PHP48A25DA5B3306.jpg


"This is normal right here, man," said Dunn, whom the Diamondbacks acquired from the Cincinnati Reds a day earlier. "Just a better color."

Dunn didn't figure into any of the run scoring in the Diamondbacks' 4-2 victory over the Colorado Rockies - a win that was No. 294 in left-hander Randy Johnson's career - but he did make an impact at the plate.
Dunn, hitting cleanup and wearing No. 32, was on base three times with a double and two walks.

Why is it the 1st place Dbacks didn't have a problem letting Dunn hit cleanup on his 1st night, yet the last place Reds wouldn't let him hit higher than 5th all season?

Sea Ray
08-13-2008, 01:11 PM
Yeah, I pull those names out of the air, didn't check the numbers, yet it turns out those four are still four of the top 10-12 hitters in the league this season.

Man, I gotta quit that hyperbole to make a point!

The Cards casually get 4 guys in one lineup who are producing numbers virtually never gotten by a single Red in their history.

And folks wonder why I have faith in Walt Jocketty.

I think Hal McKrae has to be given a great deal of credit for that

westofyou
08-13-2008, 01:13 PM
Dunn had a nice 1st night as a Dback



Why is it the 1st place Dbacks didn't have a problem letting Dunn hit cleanup on his 1st night, yet the last place Reds wouldn't let him hit higher than 5th all season?

Because he was the lefty splitting the two righties... here he was one of the two lefties being split by the RH hitter.

They also double switched him out for defense too... just like the Reds skippers have been doing for years.

Will M
08-13-2008, 01:16 PM
that'd be bad.

the trade would thus be less than the value of two compensation picks, although we saved the cash required to sign those two picks, plus the cash that the D-backs picked up from Dunn's contract.

Dunn for pile o' cash.

The draft picks we would have gotten would have been a sandwich pick plus a late 1rst round/early 2nd round pick. To say Owings and Buck are worth less than this is your opinion. It is not a fact.

IMO I like Owings and Buck better than the picks.

OldXOhio
08-13-2008, 01:31 PM
Why is it the 1st place Dbacks didn't have a problem letting Dunn hit cleanup on his 1st night, yet the last place Reds wouldn't let him hit higher than 5th all season?

Save yourself the frustration and watch Junior and Dunn in their new locales with a drink in hand, knowing that what you're about to witness has been prescribed on this site for them for years.

Patrick Bateman
08-13-2008, 01:39 PM
If the Castillo rumour is true, mark me down as being against this trade. One could argue at that point that the D-Backs basically picked up Dunn for free value. I'd rather have the picks.

Again, if true, one of the determining factors of the trade for the Reds was the thought that they are close to a playoff calibre club. Owings will probably slide into the rotation whenever it is that he gets here, while Buck looks like a fast mover. The picks, obviously, would be a long ways away.

There just doesn't look like there is much in Castillo. 24, struggling to hit even decently in the PCL. I'm not sure what to make of the fact that he's been moving positions all over the place. The D-Backs hae recently brought a couple catchers through their system (Snyder and Montero) that might have caused Castillo to move somewhere else to get at-bats during one of their stops.

princeton
08-13-2008, 01:41 PM
To say Owings and Buck are worth less than this is your opinion. It is not a fact.

round here, my opinion has always been worth more than fact ;)

OnBaseMachine
08-13-2008, 03:23 PM
Owings and the other player going to Cincinnati - also on the D-Backs' 40-man roster, a source said; also a pitcher, another source said - must clear waivers to finalize the trade, since it occurred after the July 31 nonwaiver period.

http://www.eastvalleytribune.com/story/122935

That eliminates Castillo if that's true.

fearofpopvol1
08-13-2008, 04:42 PM
People need to relax on the Castillo thing. It's far from confirmed. Hell, at this point, only Buck is ACTUALLY confirmed.

Will M
08-13-2008, 05:03 PM
People need to relax on the Castillo thing. It's far from confirmed. Hell, at this point, only Buck is ACTUALLY confirmed.

No one relaxes on Redszone. We have a state of constant anxiety at times interrupted by sheer panic!

Matt700wlw
08-13-2008, 05:09 PM
No one relaxes on Redszone. We have a state of constant anxiety at times interrupted by sheer panic!

http://www.natural-cures-for.com/images/panic_attacks.jpg

Spring~Fields
08-13-2008, 05:14 PM
No one relaxes on Redszone. We have a state of constant anxiety at times interrupted by sheer panic!

That is why they hired Jocketty, just for us, so that we could relax. :)

MWM
08-13-2008, 05:15 PM
IMO I like Owings and Buck better than the picks.

If you're good at drafting, then I'd much rather have the picks than guys that you you with a high level of certainty will never be good major leaguers.

But given how the Reds generally draft, then you might be right. Those guys might be better than having picks.

IslandRed
08-13-2008, 05:40 PM
If you're good at drafting, then I'd much rather have the picks than guys that you you with a high level of certainty will never be good major leaguers.

But given how the Reds generally draft, then you might be right. Those guys might be better than having picks.

I think a key point here is this -- what can you reasonably expect to get with those picks? Not what could you get, but what would you expect to get? To me, with two high picks but coming after the consensus impact talent is off the board, I'd be happy to get one good major-league regular or rotation guy. Not as good as hitting on both tickets, but the odds are against that.

That makes Owings the key to the deal. If he can be fixed/reverted to last year's form, he'll look just fine in the rotation for a few years to come and add value with his hitting. If he does that I won't think twice about what could have been with the draft picks. Of course, if we never get squat out of any of the three players we receive, then I'd rather have had the picks. Hindsight and all that.

REDREAD
08-13-2008, 06:01 PM
I think a key point here is this -- what can you reasonably expect to get with those picks? Not what could you get, but what would you expect to get? To me, with two high picks but coming after the consensus impact talent is off the board, I'd be happy to get one good major-league regular or rotation guy. Not as good as hitting on both tickets, but the odds are against that.

That makes Owings the key to the deal. If he can be fixed/reverted to last year's form, he'll look just fine in the rotation for a few years to come and add value with his hitting. If he does that I won't think twice about what could have been with the draft picks. Of course, if we never get squat out of any of the three players we receive, then I'd rather have had the picks. Hindsight and all that.

I think this is a sound argument.

Another point that I will add is that if the team has X dollars to sign the extra picks, they can easily use that money to sign international picks or draft guys that slip due to signablity reasons. They can also throw money at a kid to make him go pro instead of college.. It's not as if the opportunity to spend that money vanishes (if the money exists). IMO, comp picks are worth very little. Owings alone (if not permanently damaged from this injury) has a far greater chance of contributing than the average sandwhich pick. How many sandwhich picks actually make the majors and stick for more than a year? Not many, even from good organizations.

nate
08-13-2008, 06:13 PM
I think this is a sound argument.

Another point that I will add is that if the team has X dollars to sign the extra picks, they can easily use that money to sign international picks or draft guys that slip due to signablity reasons. They can also throw money at a kid to make him go pro instead of college.. It's not as if the opportunity to spend that money vanishes (if the money exists). IMO, comp picks are worth very little. Owings alone (if not permanently damaged from this injury) has a far greater chance of contributing than the average sandwhich pick. How many sandwhich picks actually make the majors and stick for more than a year? Not many, even from good organizations.

Not to be a pain but why does it matter if they're a "sandwich" pick? You're still getting a 30-50 overall pick.

How many of those guys go on to the majors and stick?

Whether it's a "sandwich" or not, pick 35 is pick 35.

Johnny Footstool
08-13-2008, 06:31 PM
The Reds will be picking pretty close to the top of the next draft. At this point, it's more important for them to take the extra cash they would have allotted to those sandwich picks and use it to sign an elite first-rounder.

I'd love to see them draft an elite talent and not have to worry about his signability.

RedsManRick
08-13-2008, 06:41 PM
I think a key point here is this -- what can you reasonably expect to get with those picks? Not what could you get, but what would you expect to get? To me, with two high picks but coming after the consensus impact talent is off the board, I'd be happy to get one good major-league regular or rotation guy. Not as good as hitting on both tickets, but the odds are against that.

That makes Owings the key to the deal. If he can be fixed/reverted to last year's form, he'll look just fine in the rotation for a few years to come and add value with his hitting. If he does that I won't think twice about what could have been with the draft picks. Of course, if we never get squat out of any of the three players we receive, then I'd rather have had the picks. Hindsight and all that.

I agree 100%.

Let's look at the supplemental picks from 2000-2003.



Year Rnd OvPck Team Drafted Player Pos AB HR OPS SB W-L ERA WHIP SV
2000 1s 31 Twins Aaron Heilman RHP 44 0 0.088 0 21-32 4.29 1.3 8
2000 1s 32 Orioles Tripper Johnson RHP
2000 1s 33 Blue Js Dustin McGowan RHP 10 0 0.4 0 20-22 4.71 1.37
2000 1s 34 Reds Dustin Moseley RHP 6-6 5.45 1.52
2000 1s 35 Rangers Carlton Godwin OF
2000 1s 36 Mets Bobby Keppel RHP 2 0 0 0 0-4 6.1 1.8
2000 1s 37 Indians Derek Thompson LHP 4 0 0 0 0-0 3.5 1.44
2000 1s 38 Braves Kelly Johnson SS 1202 34 0.786 21
2000 1s 39 Rangers Chad Hawkins RHP
2000 1s 40 Braves Aaron Herr SS
2001 1s 32 Tigers Mike Woods 2B
2001 1s 33 Angels Jeff Mathis C 455 15 0.631 2
2001 1s 34 Yankees Bronson Sardinh SS 9 0 0.75 0
2001 1s 35 Indians J.D. Martin RHP
2001 1s 36 M'S Michael Garciap SS
2001 1s 37 A's John Rheinecker LHP 8x9 5.65 1.75
2001 1s 38 Mets David Wright 3B 2487 120 0.919 91
2001 1s 39 W Sox Wyatt Allen RHP
2001 1s 40 Braves Richard Lewis 2B
2001 1s 41 Giants Todd Linden OF 502 8 0.638 8
2001 1s 42 Yankees Jon Skaggs RHP
2001 1s 43 Indians Mike Conroy OF
2001 1s 44 Rockies Jayson Nix SS
2002 1s 31 Dodgers Greg Miller LHP
2002 1s 32 Cubs Luke Hagerty LHP
2002 1s 33 Indians Matt Whitney 3B
2002 1s 34 Braves Dan Meyer LHP 0-3 6.04 1.52
2002 1s 35 A's Jeremy Brown C 10 0 0.864 0
2002 1s 36 Cubs Chadd Blasko RHP
2002 1s 37 A's Stephen Obench RHP
2002 1s 38 Cubs Matthew Clanton RHP
2002 1s 39 A's Mark Teahen 3B 1796 42 0.755 33
2002 1s 40 Reds Mark Schramek 3B
2002 1s 41 Indians Micah Schilling 2B
2003 1s 31 Indians Adam Miller RHP
2003 1s 32 RedSox Matt Murton OF 900 28 0.792 8
2003 1s 33 A's Omar Quintanill SS 420 1 0.579 3
2003 1s 34 Giants Roger Whitaker RHP
2003 1s 35 Braves Luis Atilano RHP
2003 1s 36 Braves Jarrod Saltalam C 481 14 0.711 0
2003 1s 37 M's Adam Jones SS 537 10 0.698 13
2001 1s 31 O's Bryan Bass SS

Yes. You might get a David Wright. You might get an Adam Jones or Jarrod Saltalmacchia. But you very well might get Carlton Goodwin or Luis Atilano. About half of these 42 guys will never see the majors. Of the 20 who do, about 8 will be solid major leaguers and 1 or 2 will be a star.

So, with two comp picks, 1 solid major leaguer is a reasonable expectation. And that major leaguer might have a 45% chance of being decent and a 5% chance of being a star. It's easy to think the grass is greener on the other side. But the track record suggests that if you can get a guy who is a pretty good bet to be a decent major leaguer, a guy with upside, and a guy to fill an organizational need, you're likely coming out ahead.

Caveat Emperor
08-13-2008, 06:50 PM
But given how the Reds generally draft, then you might be right. Those guys might be better than having picks.

Especially if the Reds and Yonder Alonso are so far apart on their numbers that a deal doesn't get done before the Aug. 15th deadline.

Taking the picks for Dunn would then mean that the Reds could possibly have two top-10 picks (their, presumably, high pick for this year plus their compensation pick for Alonso not signing) AND two additional first round / sandwich picks.

That's a good chunk of money that they'd have to budget for signing bonuses, even assuming everyone involved takes slot money. Most people here look at the Dunn situation and see "Oh boy, 2 more high-position draft picks." The Reds look at the Dunn situation, with an eye towards the '09 draft, and say "Oh crap, 4 bonus checks."

westofyou
08-13-2008, 07:15 PM
That's a good chunk of money that they'd have to budget for signing bonuses, even assuming everyone involved takes slot money. Most people here look at the Dunn situation and see "Oh boy, 2 more high-position draft picks." The Reds look at the Dunn situation, with an eye towards the '09 draft, and say "Oh crap, 4 bonus checks."

To quote Joe Sheehan: "The game is currently lousy with money, more money then anyone realizes."

As far as "Poor Reds" those days are over, this team spends more cash in a quarter than Lindner did in a year.

GAC
08-13-2008, 08:39 PM
I'm somewhat disappointed that Jocketty wasn't able to "squeeze" more out of the D'Backs.

The D'Backs were really in a tough spot to a degree because they are in a tight fight in the NL West, currently in 1st place by 1 1/2 games. Going into the stretch run the Dodgers went out and got a Manny. The D'Backs tried, unsuccessfully, to get Teixeira, so they were aggressively hunting to add that piece to boost their offensive production.

IMO, we basically gave Dunn away.

Not enthralled at all with this Buck kid. He's 23 yrs old and still in single-A ball? And a lot of that may have to do with the fact he's had TJ surgery. And PTBNL, generally, don't add up to much.

So it appears this FO's current approach is to create roster space so they can call up youngsters, give them as much time as possible to play in August/September, and see what they got.

reds44
08-13-2008, 08:50 PM
I'm somewhat disappointed that Jocketty wasn't able to "squeeze" more out of the D'Backs.

The D'Backs were really in a tough spot to a degree because they are in a tight fight in the NL West, currently in 1st place by 1 1/2 games. Going into the stretch run the Dodgers went out and got a Manny. The D'Backs tried, unsuccessfully, to get Teixeira, so they were aggressively hunting to add that piece to boost their offensive production.

IMO, we basically gave Dunn away.

Not enthralled at all with this Buck kid. He's 23 yrs old and still in single-A ball? And a lot of that may have to do with the fact he's had TJ surgery. And PTBNL, generally, don't add up to much.

So it appears this FO's current approach is to create roster space so they can call up youngsters, give them as much time as possible to play in August/September, and see what they got.
Don't forget the Diamondbacks claimed Dunn on waivers, he didn't clear them. You can say the Reds had the D'Backs in a tough spot, but the Reds were in a postion to either trade him to the Diamondbacks or take their draft picks in the argument. IMO, Walt was hoping Dunn would clear waivers and when he did not he got what he could and called it a day.

Sea Ray
08-13-2008, 10:18 PM
I agree 100%.

Let's look at the supplemental picks from 2000-2003.



Yes. You might get a David Wright. You might get an Adam Jones or Jarrod Saltalmacchia. But you very well might get Carlton Goodwin or Luis Atilano. About half of these 42 guys will never see the majors. Of the 20 who do, about 8 will be solid major leaguers and 1 or 2 will be a star.

So, with two comp picks, 1 solid major leaguer is a reasonable expectation. And that major leaguer might have a 45% chance of being decent and a 5% chance of being a star. It's easy to think the grass is greener on the other side. But the track record suggests that if you can get a guy who is a pretty good bet to be a decent major leaguer, a guy with upside, and a guy to fill an organizational need, you're likely coming out ahead.

How do you figure that if you get two comp picks one will likely be a solid major leaguer? By your numbers 8 out of 42 were solid major leaguers. That's less than 1 out of 4. I'd say if you had 4 comp picks the odds are just a little under 50:50 that you'll get one solid major leaguer.

The other thing with all this is when will they be a solid major leaguer? My guess is 6 years later...

wheels
08-13-2008, 10:37 PM
I'd be more friendly to a trade like this as opposed to draft picks if the romured particulars weren't of the wounded variety.

We'll see who actually ends up in a Reds uni, but given what we know right now, I'm a little more than yipped about the looming spectre of more could have beens.

Ron Madden
08-14-2008, 03:31 AM
To quote Joe Sheehan: "The game is currently lousy with money, more money then anyone realizes."

As far as "Poor Reds" those days are over, this team spends more cash in a quarter than Lindner did in a year.

Just my humble opinion...Most of that cash has been flushed down the toilet.

jojo
08-14-2008, 08:41 AM
Concerning the value of comp picks, as many have realized and noted, the value of "prospects" has become baseball's barrel of oil.

In theory, neither comp pick from Dunn would need to reach the majors in order to translate into major league talent in the hands of a good GM.

edabbs44
08-14-2008, 09:18 AM
I'm not sure that Dallas Buck can really be considered damaged goods at this point. TJ is becoming more common in the game today and more and more pitchers are coming back stronger due to advances in rehab and surgery.

blumj
08-14-2008, 09:22 AM
Concerning the value of comp picks, as many have realized and noted, the value of "prospects" has become baseball's barrel of oil.

In theory, neither comp pick from Dunn would need to reach the majors in order to translate into major league talent in the hands of a good GM.
Sure. The same could be true of prospects you get in a trade.

PuffyPig
08-14-2008, 09:37 AM
I'm somewhat disappointed that Jocketty wasn't able to "squeeze" more out of the D'Backs.

The D'Backs were really in a tough spot to a degree because they are in a tight fight in the NL West, currently in 1st place by 1 1/2 games. Going into the stretch run the Dodgers went out and got a Manny. The D'Backs tried, unsuccessfully, to get Teixeira, so they were aggressively hunting to add that piece to boost their offensive production.

IMO, we basically gave Dunn away.

Not enthralled at all with this Buck kid. He's 23 yrs old and still in single-A ball? And a lot of that may have to do with the fact he's had TJ surgery. And PTBNL, generally, don't add up to much.

So it appears this FO's current approach is to create roster space so they can call up youngsters, give them as much time as possible to play in August/September, and see what they got.

I continue to be disappointed that many need to comment on the scarcity of the return when we still don't know all the players involved.

And Re: your comment on PTBNL not amounting to much. You see few trades after the trade deadline, so you may not be used to it, but the players involved often have to be categorized as PTBNL because of waivers etc. It doesn't mean that they haven't been agreed upon. If the same trade was complated before the trade deadline, the players would not have been PTBNL.

jojo
08-14-2008, 09:39 AM
I'm not sure that Dallas Buck can really be considered damaged goods at this point. TJ is becoming more common in the game today and more and more pitchers are coming back stronger due to advances in rehab and surgery.

I think Buck has to be considered an unknown quantity at this point-kind of a keep your fingers crossed and hope you're pleasantly surprised type of arm.

Falls City Beer
08-14-2008, 09:39 AM
Sure. The same could be true of prospects you get in a trade.

Absolutely. And further, comp picks have to be *signed* to begin with, which, as is the case with Alonso, may not happen.

Considering most comp picks' distance from the majors, questions of signability, I'd say a traded-for commodity further up the ladder of the minors is a much more reliable asset (not necessarily better, but more reliable/predictable).

jojo
08-14-2008, 10:00 AM
Absolutely. And further, comp picks have to be *signed* to begin with, which, as is the case with Alonso, may not happen.

Considering most comp picks' distance from the majors, questions of signability, I'd say a traded-for commodity further up the ladder of the minors is a much more reliable asset (not necessarily better, but more reliable/predictable).

Right, but I'd rather go for infusing higher ceilings into your system. Also, depending on the pick (college guy maybe a high leverage bullpen arm), a comp player may not be years away from the majors either.

Taking Castillo for example since it's now thought he's the third player coming back to the Reds, he's pretty much a known quantity-great athlete but most likely a role player. Every team needs those and having a better bench than your enemies is a tangible benefit, no doubt. That said, role players aren't that difficult to find.

I don't think given the current rumored return (Buck, Owings, Castillo), that Jocketty made a Bavasi. It's possible that Micah could give the Reds 400 better than replacement level innings from their rotation which, of course, is a significant thing. I just think Jocketty locked in his ceiling because he's in a bit of a hurry.

I'd rather "load" the system with potential rather than count on Micah and Castillo to help the Reds win a world series the next few years.....

It's not arguing absolute truth but rather explaining my argument for why I prefer the picks.

bucksfan2
08-14-2008, 10:08 AM
I'm not sure that Dallas Buck can really be considered damaged goods at this point. TJ is becoming more common in the game today and more and more pitchers are coming back stronger due to advances in rehab and surgery.

I don't think Tommy John is that big of a surgery anymore. I actually think that the surgery tends to make the arm stronger. It is a good sign that Buck has come back and pitched this season and I think you will see him regain his velocity next season.

RedlegJake
08-14-2008, 10:48 AM
I don't think Tommy John is that big of a surgery anymore. I actually think that the surgery tends to make the arm stronger. It is a good sign that Buck has come back and pitched this season and I think you will see him regain his velocity next season.

Exactly. Buck's 2008 season is a terrible indicator because its a known fact - TJ takes a year to recover then a player is usually as good or better than before the surgery. This year is Buck gaining strength back and simply playing without pain or arm problems. Still a high risk scenario but every player in A ball is a high risk. What Walt has done in Buck and Owings is leverage some health risk for much higher caliber players than he'd usually obtain for a rental. If Castillo is indeed the third piece, then he's added a Jocketty style catcher - good D iffy bat, who is just about ready for the majors, to platoon with Hanigan. I'm very interested in knowing if Castillo is indeed the third piece because it almost certainly signals that Bako is done in Cincy after the season.

fearofpopvol1
08-14-2008, 10:51 AM
Right, but I'd rather go for infusing higher ceilings into your system. Also, depending on the pick (college guy maybe a high leverage bullpen arm), a comp player may not be years away from the majors either.

Taking Castillo for example since it's now thought he's the third player coming back to the Reds, he's pretty much a known quantity-great athlete but most likely a role player. Every team needs those and having a better bench than your enemies is a tangible benefit, no doubt. That said, role players aren't that difficult to find.

I don't think given the current rumored return (Buck, Owings, Castillo), that Jocketty made a Bavasi. It's possible that Micah could give the Reds 400 better than replacement level innings from their rotation which, of course, is a significant thing. I just think Jocketty locked in his ceiling because he's in a bit of a hurry.

I'd rather "load" the system with potential rather than count on Micah and Castillo to help the Reds win a world series the next few years.....

It's not arguing absolute truth but rather explaining my argument for why I prefer the picks.

I see the rationale, but based on the success rate of comp picks (that RMR showed earlier), it seems like a pretty good crapshoot. Even good organizations with rich farm systems had some bad picks in the sandwich rounds. Not to mention, next year's draft class is said to be average at best.

I'm still curious to see who the other 2 players are officially though.

jojo
08-14-2008, 11:02 AM
I see the rationale, but based on the success rate of comp picks (that RMR showed earlier), it seems like a pretty good crapshoot. Even good organizations with rich farm systems had some bad picks in the sandwich rounds. Not to mention, next year's draft class is said to be average at best.

I'm still curious to see who the other 2 players are officially though.

I'd suggest a 25% chance of success is a good bet.... also when discussing value, their trade value is somewhat independent of whether they actually become a David Wright.

fearofpopvol1
08-14-2008, 11:19 AM
I'd suggest a 25% chance of success is a good bet.... also when discussing value, their trade value is somewhat independent of whether they actually become a David Wright.

While I agree with the latter statement, 25% isn't exactly a good bet in my opinion.

blumj
08-14-2008, 11:36 AM
You know you'd be getting one supplemental round pick, what you really have no idea about is where the other pick would have been. It could have been anywhere from 16th overall to, what, the last pick in the 2nd round? Could it have been even later somehow, depending on if the team that signs Dunn also signs other Type A free agents? The value of that other pick can vary by a lot, can't it?

jojo
08-14-2008, 11:47 AM
While I agree with the latter statement, 25% isn't exactly a good bet in my opinion.

For a draft pick? It's huge.

Falls City Beer
08-14-2008, 11:49 AM
For a draft pick? It's huge.

It is huge; but it raises the question of the validity of that 25% figure. Just a surmise?

Because if it's just a surmise, I'd put it somewhere between 5-10% depending upon draft position.

And there's the grace period when you are disallowed from trading them.

lollipopcurve
08-14-2008, 11:53 AM
For a draft pick? It's huge.

You're making our point.

Micah Owings had an ERA+ of 109 as a 24-year-old, in 27 starts. The possibility remains he could be converted to a good RH hitter, too, if he has arm problems.

Add to that a rebuilt Dallas Buck -- and one more player who has established enough value to be on the 40-man of a good club -- and I really can't see how one would prefer two comp picks, no matter where they fall (though it should be remembered that the Reds have no way of predicting where those picks will fall, necessarily adding more risk to relying on them).

M2
08-14-2008, 12:11 PM
Thoughts on the deal:

1. Dunn wasn't coming back. He'd have been insane to stay with the Reds. Happier times and greener pastures lie elsewhere for him.

2. The Reds might do better than the two draft picks they'd have gotten for Dunn in this deal or they might not. Just noticed that Micah Owings is the 2nd name in the deal. As of this moment I'd say the Reds are about even against two theoretical draft picks.

3. Next year is the one where Buck (my name is Buck and I'm here ...) will need to make his mark. If he's not a good pitcher in 2009, he probably never will be.

4. Emiliano Fruto could be an interesting high octane arm for the pen. He's all kinds of wild right now, but bullpen arms sometimes click out of nowhere.

5. Though he's not one of those on the 40-man, but in the minors players, I hold out hope that Miguel Montero gets kicked into this deal after the season ends. If he is, then the Reds will have made a good swap. He's the kind of young catcher with upside the franchise needs.

6. This deal gives the Reds an excellent chance of cementing a top five draft pick. I don't know if they can catch the Padres, Mariners and Nationals for the top pick, but you've got to think the lineup without Dunn will be pathetic enough to give the team a shot at a magically awful finish.

blumj
08-14-2008, 12:18 PM
4. Emiliano Fruto could be an interesting high octane arm for the pen. He's all kinds of wild right now, but bullpen arms sometimes click out of nowhere.

That would be sort of amusing, just because he's the guy the Nats traded for Wily Mo.

OnBaseMachine
08-14-2008, 12:35 PM
4. Emiliano Fruto could be an interesting high octane arm for the pen. He's all kinds of wild right now, but bullpen arms sometimes click out of nowhere.


Agreed. After reading up more I think I'd prefer Fruto to the others (Juan Gutierrez, Jailen Peguero). I liked Esmerling Vasquez before but it's hard to tell if he'll ever bounce back from that torn labrum he suffered while diving for a ball last fall in the AFL.

Here's a piece on Fruto from last year:

Fruto, 22, instantly becomes one of the best arms in the Nationals system, but his poor command and questionable makeup have frustrated Mariners minor league managers in the past. He has a plus-plus changeup and also has a good curveball and a 92-96 mph fastball. But Fruto's command problems have kept him from settling into a closer's role. He's been used more as a setup man even though his stuff would seem suited to make him a closer or even a solid starter. If the Nationals can get him to harness his potential, he could be something special, but the Mariners have been unable to do that over the past five years.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/majors/news/263010.html

RedsManRick
08-14-2008, 12:38 PM
For a draft pick? It's huge.

But we're not comparing against the success rate of other draft picks. The comparison is against the success rate of the 3 players we're getting in a trade. The odds are against either draft pick having a career as successful as Micah Owings'. I'm shocked how much people are downplaying his addition.

RedlegJake
08-14-2008, 12:42 PM
But we're not comparing against the success rate of other draft picks. The comparison is against the success rate of the 3 players we're getting in a trade. The odds are against either draft pick having a career as success as Micah Owings. I'm shocked how much people are downplaying his addition.

Me too. I'm shocked the Reds got a guy of his caliber in a rental deal even with the draft picks later factored in.

jojo
08-14-2008, 01:12 PM
4. Emiliano Fruto could be an interesting high octane arm for the pen. He's all kinds of wild right now, but bullpen arms sometimes click out of nowhere.

I think Fruto has been on three 40 man rosters and has pitched in the bigs for the Ms which suggests the 24 year old is currently burning his last option year. He might be a guy the Reds could get for basically free.

Falls City Beer
08-14-2008, 01:16 PM
The odds are against either draft pick having a career as successful as Micah Owings'. I'm shocked how much people are downplaying his addition.

Heck, getting a decent arm not from the Reds' system is never a bad thing.

jojo
08-14-2008, 01:19 PM
But we're not comparing against the success rate of other draft picks. The comparison is against the success rate of the 3 players we're getting in a trade. The odds are against either draft pick having a career as successful as Micah Owings'. I'm shocked how much people are downplaying his addition.

Micah Owings is a back end starter with undefined shoulder issues.

I guess I'm surprised by how many people seem to assume that will take care of itself or that he'll be a valuable position player if his shoulder prevents him from pitching.

It's not important what Owings has already accomplished ....given potential shoulder issues, it's what he might do as a Red.

Also, ignoring his shoulder, he's not that terribly difficult to find a reasonable facsimile of.... If Jocketty prefers a healthy Owings over a high draft pick, that's his prerogative. I don't for reasons already discussed but I wouldn't criticize him for choosing a healthy Owings.

Now if only Owings' shoulder cooperates.

OnBaseMachine
08-14-2008, 01:35 PM
The odds are against either draft pick having a career as successful as Micah Owings'. I'm shocked how much people are downplaying his addition.

Agreed. People are saying the same things about Micah Owings as they were about Aaron Harang five years ago. Ah, he's just a back end starter or major league filler. We saw how Aaron Harang turned out. I for one am glad to have Micah Owings. His minor league numbers and his rookie numbers in the major league are impressive. Again, I don't see him as an ace but he could very well be a solid middle of the rotation starter.

lollipopcurve
08-14-2008, 01:41 PM
Also, ignoring his shoulder, he's not that terribly difficult to find a reasonable facsimile of.

Really? Where you going to find a player like Owings?

Are you completely discounting the fact that he could become a RH bat of consequence? If Ankiel could make the switch, you have to think Owings could too.

Very, very few baseball athletes the caliber of Owings.

jojo
08-14-2008, 01:45 PM
Really? Where you going to find a player like Owings?

Are you completely discounting the fact that he could become a RH bat of consequence? If Ankiel could make the switch, you have to think Owings could too.

Very, very few baseball athletes the caliber of Owings.

He's an athlete for sure.

So was Kordell Stewart-that didn't make him a great quarterback or a great whatever the heck else he was....

That's kind of the point.

RedsManRick
08-14-2008, 01:49 PM
Micah Owings is a back end starter with undefined shoulder issues.

I guess I'm surprised by how many people seem to assume that will take care of itself or that he'll be a valuable position player if his shoulder prevents him from pitching.

It's not important what Owings has already accomplished given potential shoulder issues....it's what he might do as a Red.

Also, ignoring his shoulder, he's not that terribly difficult to find a reasonable facsimile of.... If Jocketty prefers a healthy Owings over a high draft pick, that's his prerogative. I don't for reasons already discussed but I wouldn't criticize him for choosing a healthy Owings.

Now if only Owings' shoulder cooperates.

Fair enough. I'm guilty as charged in terms of shrugging off the shoulder issues, assuming they are minor, and will not be an issue in 2009. If they are serious, that clearly torpedoes the value of the deal and makes the draft picks a much more attractive choice.

I guess I'm not sold on the idea that #4 starters are relatively easy to find. (PECOTA has him at an ERA around 4.80 for the foreseeable future) Our organizational track record has suggested otherwise. The odds are against either supplemental pick becoming a #4 starter or better. The offensive ability is really just icing on the cake. I have no illusions that he'd be able to pull an Ankiel. That said, being able to hit well does increase his value as a pitcher by a fair bit as he increases his team's run production by a few tenths of a run when pitching.

lollipopcurve
08-14-2008, 01:52 PM
He's an athlete for sure.

So was Kordell Stewart-that didn't make him a great quarterback or a great whatever the heck else he was....

That's kind of the point.

Have you looked at his performance record, both as a pitcher and a hitter? Assuming he's healthy, what makes you think he'd decline into irrelevance like Kordell Stewart?

Caveat Emperor
08-14-2008, 02:09 PM
So was Kordell Stewart-that didn't make him a great quarterback or a great whatever the heck else he was....

Owings was a top college hitter at Tulane and has displayed plus hitting skills in his limited ABs as a pitcher. Hell, Arizona was talking about starting him at 1st base 1 or 2 nights a week when it wasn't his turn in the rotation.

Kordell Stewart's problem was that he just wasn't a great QB -- just an athlete. Owings doesn't have that problem -- he's a hell of a hitter that may or may not be a good pitcher too. They'll find a place for his bat if his arm doesn't hold up to pitch.

I'll take that every day of the week and Sunday -- if he can pitch too, the deal just got all the sweeter.

jojo
08-14-2008, 02:12 PM
Fair enough. I'm guilty as charged in terms of shrugging off the shoulder issues, assuming they are minor, and will not be an issue in 2009. If they are serious, that clearly torpedoes the value of the deal and makes the draft picks a much more attractive choice.

I guess I'm not sold on the idea that #4 starters are relatively easy to find. (PECOTA has him at an ERA around 4.80 for the foreseeable future) Our organizational track record has suggested otherwise. The odds are against either supplemental pick becoming a #4 starter or better. The offensive ability is really just icing on the cake. I have no illusions that he'd be able to pull an Ankiel. That said, being able to hit well does increase his value as a pitcher by a fair bit as he increases his team's run production by a few tenths of a run when pitching.

Right now an average major league starter has an ERA of 4.45. If Owings hit his projections, he'd be a borderline #4 with no history of eating innings.

Like I said earlier, if Owings can do that, it's not without value.

jojo
08-14-2008, 02:15 PM
Owings was a top college hitter at Tulane and has displayed plus hitting skills in his limited ABs as a pitcher. Hell, Arizona was talking about starting him at 1st base 1 or 2 nights a week when it wasn't his turn in the rotation.

Kordell Stewart's problem was that he just wasn't a great QB -- just an athlete. Owings doesn't have that problem -- he's a hell of a hitter that may or may not be a good pitcher too. They'll find a place for his bat if his arm doesn't hold up to pitch.

I'll take that every day of the week and Sunday -- if he can pitch too, the deal just got all the sweeter.

You've solved the great mystery...stick him in left and Dunn is replaced.... :cool:

VR
08-14-2008, 03:36 PM
Interesting conversation on the 'Herd today, essentially speculating this is Dunn's chance to prove all the baseball 'purists' wrong about his value. If he carries the d'backs on his shoulders into the playoffs, he could very well get that 100M deal. (Carlos Beltran was sited as an example)
If he crumbles and goes into a swoon, it could be a 2yr/ 8M deal waiting for him.

RedsManRick
08-14-2008, 04:24 PM
Interesting conversation on the 'Herd today, essentially speculating this is Dunn's chance to prove all the baseball 'purists' wrong about his value. If he carries the d'backs on his shoulders into the playoffs, he could very well get that 100M deal. (Carlos Beltran was sited as an example)
If he crumbles and goes into a swoon, it could be a 2yr/ 8M deal waiting for him.

Hilarious. I'm guessing they're going to define "prove them wrong" as in "hit for a better batting average". He could very well continue to do what he does and the D'Backs not make the playoffs. Then Dunn could take the blame, certainly a role he's familiar with.

I'm not sure if anybody else saw it last night, but down 1 in the 9th, 2 outs, first base open, they walked somebody (Jackson?) to get to Dunn. Dunn worked the count full before swinging at ball 4 (borderline) and grounding out to SS to end the game. Definitely a missed opportunity for him.

Regardless of what he does from here on out, he's going to get a minimum of $15M per from somebody. If Boras was his agent, imagine the binder he would put together.

VR
08-14-2008, 04:31 PM
Hilarious. I'm guessing they're going to define "prove them wrong" as in "hit for a better batting average". He could very well continue to do what he does and the D'Backs not make the playoffs. Then Dunn could take the blame, certainly a role he's familiar with.

I'm not sure if anybody else saw it last night, but down 1 in the 9th, 2 outs, first base open, they walked somebody (Jackson?) to get to Dunn. Dunn worked the count full before swinging at ball 4 (borderline) and grounding out to SS to end the game. Definitely a missed opportunity for him.
Regardless of what he does from here on out, he's going to get a minimum of $15M per from somebody. If Boras was his agent, imagine the binder he would put together.


I think he did that in the 7th or 8th as well.



Anyway, it was a pretty good interview, and looked at both the positive and negative perceptions of AD. But yeah, going on a binge like Manny has in LA will get him paid like Manny gets paid.

oneupper
08-14-2008, 04:33 PM
I think he did that in the 7th or 8th as well.



Anyway, it was a pretty good interview, and looked at both the positive and negative perceptions of AD. But yeah, going on a binge like Manny has in LA will get him paid like Manny gets paid.

He needs to replicate his July in September.

redsfan30
08-14-2008, 04:41 PM
Adam Dunn could be Carlos Beltran part two. If he has a huge September and performs well in October, he'll get a big time deal.

If he doesn't, it's going to be awfully tough to get the kind of deal most here think he's worth.

klw
08-14-2008, 06:43 PM
You've solved the great mystery...stick him in left and Dunn is replaced.... :cool:

Can Kordell Stewart play left?

deltachi8
08-14-2008, 06:54 PM
Can Kordell Stewart play left?

He might be able to hit better than Corey Patterson....

As a Steeler fan, I can see the Kordell analogy - as much as i liked Kordell, if he had stayed at WR, I think he would have been an all-pro.

I won't pretend to know Owings very well, but if he "fails" at pitching and becomes a regular above average bat, that's not the worst thing...

(Still would rather have Dunner though)

traderumor
08-14-2008, 06:56 PM
Kordell Stewart must be the only irrelevant player ever to step on a field.

jojo
08-14-2008, 07:58 PM
Can Kordell Stewart play left?

I don't know about playing left but as a Steeler, he didn't do much right..... :cool:

BuckeyeRedleg
08-14-2008, 08:32 PM
I think he could play left or right field.

OnBaseMachine
08-14-2008, 09:02 PM
Jocketty just returned from the Dominican, where he visited the Reds operation. It was a scheduled trip. He explained the thinking behind the Dunn trade:

We were only going to trade Adam if we could get players who we thought were better than what wed get in the draft with the compensation picks, Jocketty said. We think we did.

The Reds see Wilkin Castillo as a catcher but a catcher who give his manager other options.

But his strength is hes very versatile. Hes a good athlete. He can run. Hes the kind of player who can be very useful to Dusty (Baker)," Jocketty said.

http://news.cincinnati.com/apps/pbcs.dll/section?category=blog07&plckController=Blog&plckScript=blogScript&plckElementId=blogDest&plckBlogPage=BlogViewPost&plckPostId=Blog%3ae57bcc87-152a-4f72-96fb-cc08b1f396efPost%3a3d947f85-c533-4c48-ab93-d41c81254806&sid=sitelife.cincinnati.com

lollipopcurve
08-14-2008, 09:12 PM
“But his strength is he’s very versatile. He’s a good athlete. He can run. He’s the kind of player who can be very useful to Dusty (Baker)," Jocketty said.

Same principle behind the Cards just picking up Felipe Lopez, another switch-hitter. Larussa immediately started him in LF, and he was at 3B in another game. I'm not sure Baker has the skill to capitalize much on that kind of thing, unfortunately.

SteelSD
08-14-2008, 10:49 PM
The Reds see Wilkin Castillo as a catcher but a catcher who give his manager other options.

But his strength is hes very versatile. Hes a good athlete. He can run. Hes the kind of player who can be very useful to Dusty (Baker)," Jocketty said.

Oh, good lord.

flyer85
08-14-2008, 10:51 PM
He can run. Hes the kind of player who can be very useful to Dusty (Baker)," Jocketty said.

2009 leadoff hitter I suspect

Mario-Rijo
08-14-2008, 11:02 PM
Oh, good lord.

Ditto, that was DanO'esque!

So we get a guy who's biggest strength is he can be an out machine at multiple spots on the field. Saying that's his biggest strength is like saying "that kid can't a hit a lick"!

Ya gotta provide something offensively to be a big leaguer too Walt and I'm not sure that running necc. qualifies as that offensive portion of his value.

LoganBuck
08-14-2008, 11:43 PM
The one player I was hoping would not be coming this way is. Walt found his Gerald Laird.

vaticanplum
08-14-2008, 11:50 PM
:lol:

wheels
08-15-2008, 12:02 AM
Well....There you have it, folks.

KronoRed
08-15-2008, 12:06 AM
Good days are ahead. :D

Raisor
08-15-2008, 12:08 AM
The one player I was hoping would not be coming this way is. .

Isn't that pretty much what Samwise said to Frodo when they were approaching Mt Doom?

Falls City Beer
08-15-2008, 12:16 AM
The best time to trade Dunn was last year, but that wasn't an option for Walt. Under the circumstances, I think the trade worked out okay. Compared to what Teixeira brought back, it's a haul.

RedlegJake
08-15-2008, 12:21 AM
Given the circumstances Jocketty made a really good deal. I like it. I like the idea of Castillo and Hanigan catching, Owings is a talent - if his shoulder is bad he can still hit and could end up converting to a position, and Buck is an intriguing prospect.

jojo
08-15-2008, 12:24 AM
The best time to trade Dunn was last year, but that wasn't an option for Walt. Under the circumstances, I think the trade worked out okay. Compared to what Teixeira brought back, it's a haul.

What!?!

Falls City Beer
08-15-2008, 12:27 AM
What!?!

Casey Kotchman bores me to tears.

jojo
08-15-2008, 12:28 AM
Casey Kotchman bores me to tears.

Ya but Jocketty gives ya butterflies apparently.

Stormy
08-15-2008, 12:29 AM
Given the circumstances Jocketty made a really good deal. I like it. I like the idea of Castillo and Hanigan catching, Owings is a talent - if his shoulder is bad he can still hit and could end up converting to a position, and Buck is an intriguing prospect.

Really? I'm not sure we have any reason to like the idea of Castillo catching, and playing multiple positions. If Owings shoulder is hurt, I'm not sure he can hit... as he sure didn't replicate his previous hitting prowess in limited opportunities, with a bum wing this year. As for Buck, it's almost a flip of the coin as to whether he ever demonstrates the skills he previously possessed again.

I'm intrigued, and hopeful, but I feel that it's going to be a complete crapshoot to see if we ever get anything of productive value from this trade. Frankly, I'd rather have had 1 young healthy, positive-trending commodity on the rise, rather than 3 such risky propositions.

Falls City Beer
08-15-2008, 12:29 AM
Ya but Jocketty gives ya butterflies apparently.

I don't know what this means.

fearofpopvol1
08-15-2008, 12:32 AM
Casey Kotchman bores me to tears.

Kotchman at least appears to be a difference maker. While the Reds may have gotten more potential talent, they are all bigger question marks than Kotchman is.

Falls City Beer
08-15-2008, 12:32 AM
Kotchman at least appears to be a difference maker. While the Reds may have gotten more potential talent, they are all bigger question marks than Kotchman is.

Kotchman isn't a difference-maker. He's a product of coastal hype.

fearofpopvol1
08-15-2008, 12:33 AM
Kotchman isn't a difference-maker. He's a product of coastal hype.

Kotchman > Any 1 of the 3 players the Reds are getting from the DBacks

Falls City Beer
08-15-2008, 12:35 AM
Kotchman > Any 1 of the 3 players the Reds are getting from the DBacks

That's a bit premature. Plus, Kotchman will start costing soon. He's a tweener--a guy you keep for a couple of seasons and discard.

jojo
08-15-2008, 12:38 AM
I don't know what this means.

I'm suggesting that you may not be unbiased were W is concerned.

Stormy
08-15-2008, 12:40 AM
That's a bit premature. Plus, Kotchman will start costing soon. He's a tweener--a guy you keep for a couple of seasons and discard.

I'm not impressed by Kotchman's slow to translate skills either. He either starts to produce as expected, or he'll begin to cost more than he's worth in a couple of years. Then again, unless Owings pulls an Ankielesque transition (or a Harangian step forward as a pitcher), Kotchman is still likely > all 3 of the pieces we received for Dunn. ;)

deltachi8
08-15-2008, 12:44 AM
I'm hoping for the best, honestly, I am....but...well, you know...

fearofpopvol1
08-15-2008, 12:49 AM
That's a bit premature. Plus, Kotchman will start costing soon. He's a tweener--a guy you keep for a couple of seasons and discard.

If the Reds want to win now (which they more than likely are going to try to do), Kotchman is a bigger difference maker right now than the other 3 players will be.

jojo
08-15-2008, 12:49 AM
I'm not impressed by Kotchman's slow to translate skills either. He either starts to produce as expected, or he'll begin to cost more than he's worth in a couple of years. Then again, unless Owings pulls an Ankielesque transition (or a Harangian step forward as a pitcher), Kotchman is still likely > all 3 of the pieces we received for Dunn. ;)

Kotchman has basically been an average bat with significant defensive value....in other words he's an above average starting first baseman the Braves will control for 3 years. Don't forget that Atlanta also got a solid, legit relief prospect too.....

There is no doubt that their return was better than picks....

Falls City Beer
08-15-2008, 09:21 AM
Kotchman is Doug Mieanaakglkj basically. Defense-heavy, a bit below average offensively, first basemen are, well, a dime a dozen. Whatever slight power he's got will likely be negated by Turner.

If Owings can be a number 4 starter for just 2 seasons (a very reasonable, perhaps probable, expectation), then this deal will have lapped the Teixeira deal many times over.

jojo
08-15-2008, 10:41 AM
If Owings can be a number 4 starter for just 2 seasons (a very up in the air, perhaps probable assuming his shoulder problems can get corrected and he pitches better, expectation), then this deal will have come close to equaling the Teixeira deal.

I changed a few things to make it a more accurate statement.... :cool:

blumj
08-15-2008, 10:47 AM
I still think Kotchman's more of a hitter than he's shown. He's 25. But he's not going to get expensive in arbitration until he starts showing it.

Falls City Beer
08-15-2008, 11:01 AM
I changed a few things to make it a more accurate statement.... :cool:

Except that your changes are completely wrong. You completely undervalue starters and completely overvalue roleplayers and placeholder bats. You'd make an extraordinary Reds' GM.

Falls City Beer
08-15-2008, 11:05 AM
I still think Kotchman's more of a hitter than he's shown. He's 25. But he's not going to get expensive in arbitration until he starts showing it.

The very definition of a tweener. Not good enough to be expensive! Woohoo!

jojo
08-15-2008, 11:05 AM
You completely undervalue starters and completely overvalue roleplayers and placeholder bats. You'd make an extraordinary Reds' GM.

Except that I don't.

flyer85
08-15-2008, 11:05 AM
Kotchman is one of the types you hear the comment "his power will develop as he matures". For most of them it never does.

Falls City Beer
08-15-2008, 11:08 AM
Except that I don't.

In this case, you do. Why is it so alien to think that Owings will bounce back from this injury? He was having a much better half season than Arroyo (despite what his ERA was). He's still young.

Why is that any stranger than doubting that Kotchman will ever develop power?

RedsManRick
08-15-2008, 11:23 AM
Jocketty just returned from the Dominican, where he visited the Reds operation. It was a scheduled trip. He explained the thinking behind the Dunn trade:

“We were only going to trade Adam if we could get players who we thought were better than what we’d get in the draft with the compensation picks,” Jocketty said. ‘We think we did.”

The Reds see Wilkin Castillo as a catcher but a catcher who give his manager other options.

“But his strength is he’s very versatile. He’s a good athlete. He can run. He’s the kind of player who can be very useful to Dusty (Baker)," Jocketty said.

http://news.cincinnati.com/apps/pbcs.dll/section?category=blog07&plckController=Blog&plckScript=blogScript&plckElementId=blogDest&plckBlogPage=BlogViewPost&plckPostId=Blog%3ae57bcc87-152a-4f72-96fb-cc08b1f396efPost%3a3d947f85-c533-4c48-ab93-d41c81254806&sid=sitelife.cincinnati.com

I will henceforth refer to Castillo as Jose Macias Jr. He may not do anything well, but he does it all over the place.

As for Kotchman, he's hit .269/.333/.417 for his career, .272/.317/.421 for the season, and has a PECOTA projected low .800s OPS in his peak -- prior to this season. In his 2nd full season, his IsoP and IsoD are both down. I'm sorry Jojo, but any assertion that Owings' future is uncertain can be matched by similar, if not completely comparable, claims about Kotchman.

Not to say the Reds package is better, given their respective reputations (I think most fans and GMs would prefer Teixeira), the hauls are at minimum comparable (Yes, I know you weren't the one making the initial assertion).

Sea Ray
08-15-2008, 11:27 AM
Why keep talking about Kotchman? He would be of no value to this team. We don't need more 1B.

This trade, like all trades, is a crapshoot. I hope WJ is having Owings examined before he signs off on this trade. He's an idiot if he doesn't. It would be reasonable to assume WK can pick another player from an agreed upon list if Owings does not pass a physical.

If Owings bombs then there's always the Buck kid. Owings doesn't make or break this deal.

Falls City Beer
08-15-2008, 11:28 AM
Why keep talking about Kotchman? He would be of no value to this team. We don't need more 1B.

Because comparing comparable deals helps calibrate how well a GM is doing to some extent.

jojo
08-15-2008, 11:36 AM
In this case, you do. Why is it so alien to think that Owings will bounce back from this injury? He was having a much better half season than Arroyo (despite what his ERA was). He's still young.

Why is that any stranger than doubting that Kotchman will ever develop power?

First, I'm not arguing Kotchman has to be anything other than what he's already been (I never argued his current value was tied to him developing power in the future).

Second, Owings absolutely could be unaffected in the future by what currently seems to be shoulder issues-I never argued otherwise either.

I've argued Owings is a back end starter with no history of eating innings who now has undefined issues with a key part of his pitching anatomy which I'd think would be a cause for pause for even those inclined to be the most optimistic.

I'd think it would be a huge "pounce point" for those who tend to be the most "conservative" concerning the odds of young arms developing in general-especially younger arms with injury histories.

It's quite an eye popping thing to see such "conservative" individuals describe a return of young, injury-riddled arms as a "haul".

RedsManRick
08-15-2008, 11:40 AM
First, I'm not arguing Kotchman has to be anything other than what he's already been (I never argued his current value was tied to him developing power in the future).

Are you referring to his 2006, .296/.372/.467 "already been", or his .272/.317/.421 "currently is"? The former is quite a bit more valuable than the latter, obviously, and somewhere in the middle is less valuable than a #4 starter. Obviously, as you continue to point out, if Owings' shoulder issue is serious, the conversation is basically moot.

Falls City Beer
08-15-2008, 11:40 AM
First, I'm not arguing Kotchman has to be anything other than what he's already been (I never argued his current value was tied to him developing power in the future).

Second, Owings absolutely could be unaffected in the future by what currently seems to be shoulder issues-I never argued otherwise either.

I've argued Owings is a back end starter with no history of eating innings who now has undefined issues with a key part of his pitching anatomy which I'd think would be a cause for pause for even those inclined to be the most optimistic.

I'd think it would be a huge "pounce point" for those who tend to be the most "conservative" concerning the odds of young arms developing in general-especially younger arms with injury histories.

It's quite an eye popping thing to see such "conservative" individuals describe a return of young, injury-riddled arms as a "haul".


It's not haul, but a comparative haul, IMO.

jojo
08-15-2008, 11:43 AM
I'm sorry Jojo, but any assertion that Owings' future is uncertain can be matched by similar, if not completely comparable, claims about Kotchman.

Except that Kotchman has been a slightly above average bat over his first two full seasons in the majors and adds significant defensive value as well. Pecota predicts more of the same.

Owings has been a below average starting pitcher over the same period and Pecota predicts more of the same as well.

Sea Ray
08-15-2008, 11:44 AM
I've argued Owings is a back end starter with no history of eating innings who now has undefined issues with a key part of his pitching anatomy which I'd think would be a cause for pause for even those inclined to be the most optimistic.

I'd think it would be a huge "pounce point" for those who tend to be the most "conservative" concerning the odds of young arms developing in general-especially younger arms with injury histories.

It's quite an eye popping thing to see such "conservative" individuals describe a return of young, injury-riddled arms as a "haul".

Everything's relative. Let's say we received these 3 players in exchange for Mike Stanton in April. I'd call it a haul, wouldn't you?

In this case using Dunn for 45 games in a year where you're 19 games out of first doesn't represent much value. It's possible this trade could turn out to be a haul, although I must say I wouldn't describe it as that myself.

It's really impossible for us fans sitting at home to know what's going on with Owings. All pitchers go through shoulder stiffness if they have a career of any length at all. It's a painful job. Whether it's just that or whether it'll turn into a Paul Wilson shoulder, none of us knows.

RedlegJake
08-15-2008, 11:44 AM
Really? I'm not sure we have any reason to like the idea of Castillo catching, and playing multiple positions. If Owings shoulder is hurt, I'm not sure he can hit... as he sure didn't replicate his previous hitting prowess in limited opportunities, with a bum wing this year. As for Buck, it's almost a flip of the coin as to whether he ever demonstrates the skills he previously possessed again.

I'm intrigued, and hopeful, but I feel that it's going to be a complete crapshoot to see if we ever get anything of productive value from this trade. Frankly, I'd rather have had 1 young healthy, positive-trending commodity on the rise, rather than 3 such risky propositions.

At least you're intrigued and hopeful. That is how I feel, too. This is a crapshoot - one that I feel much better about with Walt rolling the dice than any of his predecessors. Risk is a necessary component of team building in a trade like this one where you are basically looking at draft picks or nothing. Risk (and $2 million) is what got the Reds as good as they got in the deal. Wilkins will be a good catcher in the Jocketty mold, playing good defense. He will disappoint if you expect him to hit really well. He doesn't have to hit - if he plays good D behind the plate and runs better than the average catcher you've ugraded from what the Reds have now. He and Hanigan will be a good tandem, imo, compared to what the Reds were faced with. If Castillo means the Reds let Bako go, he's worth it.

Owings is just too talented not to take the gamble on. Buck is the real longshot, being so far away and coming off TJ but he does add another future possibility. He's also a rather severe gb pitcher which I really like. I stand by my statement - this was a very, very good deal. I'd take Owings and Castillo over the compensatory 2 draft picks every day. Buck just adds a third possibility. Intriguing and hopeful, absolutely. A slam dunk winner. I'm not saying that - everything about all 5 guys he's gotten in these two trades could blow up in Walt's face.

bucksfan2
08-15-2008, 11:47 AM
First, I'm not arguing Kotchman has to be anything other than what he's already been (I never argued his current value was tied to him developing power in the future).

Second, Owings absolutely could be unaffected in the future by what currently seems to be shoulder issues-I never argued otherwise either.

I've argued Owings is a back end starter with no history of eating innings who now has undefined issues with a key part of his pitching anatomy which I'd think would be a cause for pause for even those inclined to be the most optimistic.

I'd think it would be a huge "pounce point" for those who tend to be the most "conservative" concerning the odds of young arms developing in general-especially younger arms with injury histories.

It's quite an eye popping thing to see such "conservative" individuals describe a return of young, injury-riddled arms as a "haul".

I don't get the notion that Owings doesn't have a history of eating innings. The guy is 26 years old and has only pitched one full major league season. How in the world do you know whether he will be able to eat innings or not? If you had more than one and a half major league season to come to that conclusion I would agree but making a snap judgement based upon a little over a season of major league play doesn't work with me.

jojo
08-15-2008, 11:47 AM
Are you referring to his 2006, .296/.372/.467 "already been", or his .272/.317/.421 "currently is"?

I'm referring to his history to this point or if you prefer his true skill level.

jojo
08-15-2008, 11:56 AM
I don't get the notion that Owings doesn't have a history of eating innings. The guy is 26 years old and has only pitched one full major league season. How in the world do you know whether he will be able to eat innings or not? If you had more than one and a half major league season to come to that conclusion I would agree but making a snap judgement based upon a little over a season of major league play doesn't work with me.

His highest IP total ever has been roughly 160 innings. This year he's logged about 110 and has an "issue" with his shoulder.

So he's turning 26 with a gimpy shoulder and has yet to demonstrate the durability that would be expected to offset the below average production of a back end guy.

That's kind of the reasoning behind the notion that we shouldn't pencil him in as a workhorse by default.

RedsManRick
08-15-2008, 11:59 AM
Except that Kotchman has been a slightly above average bat over his first two full seasons in the majors and adds significant defensive value as well. Pecota predicts more of the same.

Owings has been a below average starting pitcher over the same period and Pecota predicts more of the same as well.

Kotchman has been an above average 1B bat? The two years he's got a composite line of around .285/.350/.450. Is that really an above average 1B? It seems that you and PECOTA both don't account for the fact that he's lost 50 points of OBP this year. I doubt next year's projection puts him in the .370/.450 range moving forward.

jojo
08-15-2008, 12:17 PM
Kotchman has been an above average 1B bat? The two years he's got a composite line of around .285/.350/.450. Is that really an above average 1B? It seems that you and PECOTA both don't account for the fact that he's lost 50 points of OBP this year. I doubt next year's projection puts him in the .370/.450 range moving forward.

Kotchman has been an average major league bat even so, as an Angel, his OPS of .775 this season was exactly in line with his fellow AL first sackers (OPS=.778). In '07 he was significantly better than his fellow AL first sackers. He should benefit by facing NL pitching in the future.

I'm not arguing he'll be Howard/Pujols as a Brave. I'm arguing he's a valuable major league everyday regular.

Pecota's projection for Kotchman probably isn't going to be dramatically altered by his '08. His 15 or so games as a Brave notwithstanding, CK was in line with his '08 Pecota weighted mean as an Angel.

BRM
08-15-2008, 12:20 PM
No thanks on Kotchman for me.

kaldaniels
08-15-2008, 02:10 PM
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2008/writers/jon_heyman/08/15/scoop.friday/index.html

Jon Heyman predicts Dunn will get 5 yr 70 million.

NJReds
08-15-2008, 02:17 PM
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2008/writers/jon_heyman/08/15/scoop.friday/index.html

Jon Heyman predicts Dunn will get 5 yr 70 million.

That seems about right. If I was a GM, I might offer him one less year for a little more annually.

bucksfan2
08-15-2008, 02:34 PM
His highest IP total ever has been roughly 160 innings. This year he's logged about 110 and has an "issue" with his shoulder.

So he's turning 26 with a gimpy shoulder and has yet to demonstrate the durability that would be expected to offset the below average production of a back end guy.

That's kind of the reasoning behind the notion that we shouldn't pencil him in as a workhorse by default.

He's 26 with a sore shoulder. It doesn't mean he can't improve his workload. Can't he improve as a pitcher? I don't think 1.5 major leagues seasons is enough to judge how a pitcher will pitch during the remainder of his career.

OldXOhio
08-15-2008, 03:48 PM
7. Pat Burrell, Phillies, OF
He's come back nicely from a brutal year of a few years ago to reestablish himself as a pretty good offensive player. He's had a lot of big hits this year. Of course, many of them have come in Citizen's Bank Jokeyard. Best guess: $48 million, four years.

Interesting.

Would you pay 12 large a year for Burrell in the GAB if you were Walt?

RedsManRick
08-15-2008, 03:51 PM
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2008/writers/jon_heyman/08/15/scoop.friday/index.html

Jon Heyman predicts Dunn will get 5 yr 70 million.

Interesting. That would really make the Astros look dumb for giving the older Carlos Lee 6/100.

I think it'll be closer to 5/80 or 4/70.

flyer85
08-15-2008, 03:53 PM
Interesting.

Would you pay 12 large a year for Burrell in the GAB if you were Walt?nope

RedsManRick
08-15-2008, 03:57 PM
Interesting.

Would you pay 12 large a year for Burrell in the GAB if you were Walt?

Absolutely. I'd go 4/50 on Burrell. I think Heyman's numbers are low across the board. There's just a ridiculous amount of money in the game right now.

M2
08-15-2008, 04:45 PM
Owings' shoulder is a major issue. Basically this trade hinges on Buck successfully recovering from injury and on Owings not having a major injury. That's a lot of M*A*S*H* in one deal.

Falls City Beer
08-15-2008, 04:48 PM
Does anyone know the extent of the injury? What is his diagnosis?

lollipopcurve
08-15-2008, 04:48 PM
Owings' shoulder is a major issue.

My guess is that his being the last PTBNL hinges on his passing a physical with the Reds.

M2
08-15-2008, 04:59 PM
Does anyone know the extent of the injury? What is his diagnosis?

I imagine there really isn't one beyond "something's wrong."

flyer85
08-15-2008, 05:03 PM
Absolutely. I'd go 4/50 on Burrell. I think Heyman's numbers are low across the board. There's just a ridiculous amount of money in the game right now.
I want no part of Burrell's 32-35 age years. He has been consistent the last 4 years but the decline can start anytime and he certainly isn't going to help the defense. he is similar to Dunn but is three years older. People around here were worrying about Dunn not aging well because he is a big guy ... Burrell is in the same boat.

Falls City Beer
08-15-2008, 05:40 PM
I imagine there really isn't one beyond "something's wrong."

I'd say a torn labrum's a different beast from tendonitis in the shoulder.

OnBaseMachine
08-15-2008, 07:31 PM
Dallas Buck was assigned to High-A Sarasota and made his Reds organizational debut tonight and pitched very, very well. His final line was:

5 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 4 K, 10 ground outs/1 flyout

Very encouraging debut by Dallas Buck. Keep in mind he's doing this without his best stuff right now.

RedsManRick
08-15-2008, 07:31 PM
Dallas Buck was assigned to High-A Sarasota and made his Reds organizational debut tonight and pitched very, very well. His final line was:

5 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 4 K, 10 ground outs/1 flyout

Very encouraging debut by Dallas Buck. Keep in mind he's doing this without his best stuff right now.

You have to love that GB/FB.

jesusfan
08-15-2008, 07:32 PM
Dallas Buck is going to surprise a lot of people....

westofyou
08-15-2008, 09:33 PM
nm

westofyou
08-15-2008, 09:34 PM
Dallas Buck is going to surprise a lot of people....

Why? Does he have a superfluous nipple?

nate
08-15-2008, 09:38 PM
Why? Does he have a superfluous nipple?

No, a prehensile tail.

jojo
08-15-2008, 10:10 PM
Why? Does he have a superfluous nipple?

He's from Oregon so there is a very good chance that he's either an alien or has at least been probed during one of the many times he was abducted......

MasonBuzz3
08-15-2008, 11:43 PM
I'm not really into the minor leagues, but shouldn't Dallas Buck be able to move pretty quickly once he proves he is healthy

deltachi8
08-16-2008, 01:15 AM
Damn this looks strange...

http://d.yimg.com/us.yimg.com/p/ap/20080813/capt.b6d50efc81e8484fb3fe27b060798f22.diamondbacks _rockies_baseball_codz109.jpg

WVRedsFan
08-16-2008, 01:54 AM
Buck will be OK someday.

I still look at the ESPN pitcures across the top of the stats page and see that Dunn led this team in almost every batting category. There he smiles in his Arizona Diamondbacks hat and it makes me sick. This team is so offensively challenged and the leader in all of that is gone with no replacement in site. Yes, i know this season is lost due to a very disfunctional roster, but Dunn was the offensive leader. And he's gone to leave us with scoring 2-3 runs a game while our pitching staff gives up five.

Another summer lost. I should be getting used to this by now...

OnBaseMachine
08-16-2008, 03:36 AM
I'm not really into the minor leagues, but shouldn't Dallas Buck be able to move pretty quickly once he proves he is healthy

He'll probably begin next season in AA Chattanooga and if he gets his stuff back and pitches well then you could possibly see him in Cincinnati late season in the best case scenario.

Raisor
08-17-2008, 11:02 AM
Dunn in five games with the Snakes

.333/.520/.444

membengal
08-17-2008, 12:48 PM
But is he krispy?

OnBaseMachine
08-17-2008, 12:52 PM
The DBacks are 4-1 since acquiring Dunn and have scored 38 runs in five games (7.6 runs per game).

mth123
08-17-2008, 12:55 PM
The DBacks are 4-1 since acquiring Dunn and have scored 38 runs in five games (7.6 runs per game).

But the Reds have a 25th man who can play catcher, an injured swingman and an A Baller coming off major arm surgery. What's the problem?

wheels
08-17-2008, 03:39 PM
But the Reds have a 25th man who can play catcher, an injured swingman and an A Baller coming off major arm surgery. What's the problem?

Well said.

deltachi8
08-17-2008, 04:26 PM
Dunn in five games with the Snakes

.333/.520/.444

ya but how did he run to first after those silly walks he takes?

westofyou
08-17-2008, 04:33 PM
The DBacks are 4-1 since acquiring Dunn and have scored 38 runs in five games (7.6 runs per game).

And during his AB in the 4th today the announcers said that they hope that when the DBacks open their home stand that the fans welcome him with open arms and give him a standing O.

Meanwhile Jeff Brantley said he should be platooned and others in town holding tech speak (or post) button imply he's a low energy one trick pony.

Team Clark
08-17-2008, 04:49 PM
ya but how did he run to first after those silly walks he takes?

Just goes to show you that anyone can stand in the box and take pitches. :D

edabbs44
08-17-2008, 05:08 PM
The DBacks are 4-1 since acquiring Dunn and have scored 38 runs in five games (7.6 runs per game).

Numbers might be skewed since they had a pretty favorable schedule this week and it is an awfully small sample size.

Oswalt is having his way with them today.

OnBaseMachine
08-17-2008, 05:21 PM
Numbers might be skewed since they had a pretty favorable schedule this week and it is an awfully small sample size.

Oswalt is having his way with them today.

The Astros entered the series red hot and the DBacks crushed them the first two games.

edabbs44
08-17-2008, 05:25 PM
The Astros entered the series red hot and the DBacks crushed them the first two games.

Backe has let up 48 baserunners in the last 22 innings. He is far from red hot, and he was one of the main culprits.

OnBaseMachine
08-17-2008, 05:26 PM
Backe has let up 48 baserunners in the last 22 innings. He is far from red hot, and he was one of the main culprits.

I didn't say Backe was red hot.

traderumor
08-17-2008, 05:45 PM
And during his AB in the 4th today the announcers said that they hope that when the DBacks open their home stand that the fans welcome him with open arms and give him a standing O.

Meanwhile Jeff Brantley said he should be platooned and others in town holding tech speak (or post) button imply he's a low energy one trick pony.Honestly, wedding reception for the new happy couple, the estranged knowing all the dirty little secrets, the truth somewhere in the middle.

westofyou
08-17-2008, 05:51 PM
Honestly, wedding reception for the new happy couple, the estranged knowing all the dirty little secrets, the truth somewhere in the middle.

Sure... but they are marketing their team... the other is running it down.

traderumor
08-17-2008, 05:58 PM
Sure... but they are marketing their team... the other is running it down.I like to give people the benefit of the doubt that they are intelligent enough to not be marketed (aka manipulated), the other side is in justify mode.

MWM
08-17-2008, 06:29 PM
I like to give people the benefit of the doubt that they are intelligent enough to not be marketed (aka manipulated), the other side is in justify mode.

That's exactly what John Allen (a fellow accountant) would say.

Marketing works.

traderumor
08-17-2008, 07:02 PM
That's exactly what John Allen (a fellow accountant) would say.

Marketing works.Coming from a marketing person...no bias there, eh?

The fact that people allow themselves to be manipulated and do or buy stuff they don't really want or need is not exactly a badge of honor for the human race, whether it works or not. I wouldn't be so proud of myself.

Sea Ray
08-17-2008, 07:05 PM
The DBacks are 4-1 since acquiring Dunn and have scored 38 runs in five games (7.6 runs per game).


The Reds are 3-3 so the trade seems to be working out for all concerned so far.

MWM
08-17-2008, 08:33 PM
Coming from a marketing person...no bias there, eh?

The fact that people allow themselves to be manipulated and do or buy stuff they don't really want or need is not exactly a badge of honor for the human race, whether it works or not. I wouldn't be so proud of myself.

Trust me, YOU are influenced by marketing, whether you realize it or not. Everyone is. But hey, someone has to count the beans, too. :evil:

flyer85
08-18-2008, 11:34 AM
Melvin on Dunn


“He takes a lot of pressure off everybody in the lineup. We’re deeper, and it’s made our lineup tougher to navigate. He hasn’t hit multiple home runs, but that’s coming."

Dunn has hit safely in all five of his games with the D-Backs and has walked seven times.

He was in the middle of three big innings recently, getting a two-run single in a five-run fifth at Colorado on Thursday, walking in a three-run first at Houston on Friday before singling in a five-run first Saturday.

“He has a terrific eye. Even when he is not hitting, he’s on base,” Melvin said.

“Those things are very impactful. He makes everybody a better hitter with his presence.”

wheels
08-18-2008, 11:35 AM
*Sigh*

Cyclone792
08-18-2008, 11:38 AM
*Sigh*

Bob Melvin gets it. He's also one of the few managers out there who has bent over backwards to protect his pitchers, most notably Brandon Webb.

Ltlabner
08-18-2008, 11:47 AM
“He takes a lot of pressure off everybody in the lineup. We’re deeper, and it’s made our lineup tougher to navigate. He hasn’t hit multiple home runs, but that’s coming."

Dunn has hit safely in all five of his games with the D-Backs and has walked seven times.

He was in the middle of three big innings recently, getting a two-run single in a five-run fifth at Colorado on Thursday, walking in a three-run first at Houston on Friday before singling in a five-run first Saturday.

“He has a terrific eye. Even when he is not hitting, he’s on base,” Melvin said.

“Those things are very impactful. He makes everybody a better hitter with his presence.”

Ewwww walks are icky

BRM
08-18-2008, 12:06 PM
Ewwww walks are icky

Unless you're fast.

traderumor
08-18-2008, 12:32 PM
Trust me, YOU are influenced by marketing, whether you realize it or not. Everyone is. But hey, someone has to count the beans, too. :evil:There is no doubt, the difference is that I realize that I just fell to a manipulation tool and don't buy the thing. But how about leaving the disparaging remarks regarding my trade to yourself, eh?

traderumor
08-18-2008, 12:35 PM
Bob Melvin gets it. He's also one of the few managers out there who has bent over backwards to protect his pitchers, most notably Brandon Webb.Aren't honeymooners sweet :rolleyes:

deltachi8
08-18-2008, 12:49 PM
“He takes a lot of pressure off everybody in the lineup. We’re deeper, and it’s made our lineup tougher to navigate. He hasn’t hit multiple home runs, but that’s coming."

Dunn has hit safely in all five of his games with the D-Backs and has walked seven times.

He was in the middle of three big innings recently, getting a two-run single in a five-run fifth at Colorado on Thursday, walking in a three-run first at Houston on Friday before singling in a five-run first Saturday.

“He has a terrific eye. Even when he is not hitting, he’s on base,” Melvin said.

“Those things are very impactful. He makes everybody a better hitter with his presence.”

As Steinbrenner said about Costanza: "Hire this man!"

MWM
08-18-2008, 12:54 PM
There is no doubt, the difference is that I realize that I just fell to a manipulation tool and don't buy the thing. But how about leaving the disparaging remarks regarding my trade to yourself, eh?

Relax, my comments were made tongue in cheek. I thought you knew that I was a CPA, too. Most of my career has been spent in finance and accounting. BTW, advertising is just a small piece of marketing. If you've ever clipped a coupon, or bought something on sale, you've been influenced by marketing. The point is that marketing does matter and some major league franchises benefit greatly from doing it well. The Reds aren't one of them. Quite the opposite.

KronoRed
08-18-2008, 02:29 PM
Ewwww walks are icky

Unmanly too, teams that never walk always win.

I read it on here :D

traderumor
08-18-2008, 03:41 PM
Relax, my comments were made tongue in cheek. I thought you knew that I was a CPA, too. Most of my career has been spent in finance and accounting. BTW, advertising is just a small piece of marketing. If you've ever clipped a coupon, or bought something on sale, you've been influenced by marketing. The point is that marketing does matter and some major league franchises benefit greatly from doing it well. The Reds aren't one of them. Quite the opposite.Sorry, despise the term bean counter. But it should be clear that I am speaking to manipulative marketing, which the announcers telling people what they should do at a game is just that type.

jojo
09-01-2008, 05:34 PM
Thoughts on the deal:

1. Dunn wasn't coming back. He'd have been insane to stay with the Reds. Happier times and greener pastures lie elsewhere for him.

2. The Reds might do better than the two draft picks they'd have gotten for Dunn in this deal or they might not. Just noticed that Micah Owings is the 2nd name in the deal. As of this moment I'd say the Reds are about even against two theoretical draft picks.

3. Next year is the one where Buck (my name is Buck and I'm here ...) will need to make his mark. If he's not a good pitcher in 2009, he probably never will be.

4. Emiliano Fruto could be an interesting high octane arm for the pen. He's all kinds of wild right now, but bullpen arms sometimes click out of nowhere.

5. Though he's not one of those on the 40-man, but in the minors players, I hold out hope that Miguel Montero gets kicked into this deal after the season ends. If he is, then the Reds will have made a good swap. He's the kind of young catcher with upside the franchise needs.

6. This deal gives the Reds an excellent chance of cementing a top five draft pick. I don't know if they can catch the Padres, Mariners and Nationals for the top pick, but you've got to think the lineup without Dunn will be pathetic enough to give the team a shot at a magically awful finish.

The Dbacks just DFA'd Fruto to make room for Eckstein.

OnBaseMachine
09-01-2008, 05:35 PM
The Dbacks just DFA'd Fruto to make room for Eckstein.

I'd like to see Walt claim him if he falls to the Reds.

OnBaseMachine
09-01-2008, 05:37 PM
Dunn just hit homerun #35 btw.

Degenerate39
09-01-2008, 05:49 PM
Dunn just hit homerun #35 btw.

A solo shot so I guess it doesn't count for anything.

RedsManRick
09-01-2008, 07:22 PM
He also walked before a Mark Reynolds homer. Amazing what happens when you put good hitters behind him instead of ahead of him.

Maybe it's just the cut of Arizona's jersey, but Dunn looked considerably more athletic/leaner as he rounded the bases.

I loved this quote from the HR call. "If (the D'Backs) don't win the west, it ain't gonna be this guy's fault. Alls he's done is get on base... constantly. That's his 3rd HR..." Imagine that, if you don't win, it's NOT your best player's fault...

Raisor
09-01-2008, 07:27 PM
He also walked before a Mark Reynolds homer. Amazing what happens when you put good hitters behind him instead of ahead of him.

Maybe it's just the cut of Arizona's jersey, but Dunn looked considerably more athletic/leaner as he rounded the bases.

I loved this quote from the HR call. "If (the D'Backs) don't win the west, it ain't gonna be this guy's fault. Alls he's done is get on base... constantly. That's his 3rd HR..." Imagine that, if you don't win, it's NOT your best player's fault...

He's also playing 1B today.

RedsManRick
09-01-2008, 07:32 PM
He's also playing 1B today.

How disrespectful. Amazing what guys will do when you actually fill out the lineup card. Dusty's "respect" logic is so full of crap. The "dude" is more interested in making people happy than winning baseball games.

nate
09-01-2008, 07:32 PM
He's also playing 1B today.

Wow, what sort of bad corporate culture is going on in the Reds organization?

At least Dunn got to leave, I fear the folks who said he couldn't play 1B and insisted Jr. hit 3rd are still here.

edabbs44
09-01-2008, 07:36 PM
He also walked before a Mark Reynolds homer. Amazing what happens when you put good hitters behind him instead of ahead of him.

Didn't the better hitters hit behind Adam this year, for the most part?

RedEye
09-01-2008, 07:56 PM
Didn't the better hitters hit behind Adam this year, for the most part?

Yeah. The problem was that he was hitting 6th or 7th and they were behind him!

Highlifeman21
09-02-2008, 12:38 PM
He also walked before a Mark Reynolds homer. Amazing what happens when you put good hitters behind him instead of ahead of him.

Maybe it's just the cut of Arizona's jersey, but Dunn looked considerably more athletic/leaner as he rounded the bases.

I loved this quote from the HR call. "If (the D'Backs) don't win the west, it ain't gonna be this guy's fault. Alls he's done is get on base... constantly. That's his 3rd HR..." Imagine that, if you don't win, it's NOT your best player's fault...

I thought it was Jay Bruce's fault we're not winning, since Griffey and Dunn both left town :confused:

Sea Ray
09-02-2008, 03:21 PM
I loved this quote from the HR call. "If (the D'Backs) don't win the west, it ain't gonna be this guy's fault. Alls he's done is get on base... constantly. That's his 3rd HR..." Imagine that, if you don't win, it's NOT your best player's fault...


It's a little early for the D-Backs folks to be saying that. Sept has just begun.

If they don't win the West and Dunn has a Sept swoon the last time he had the pressure of a pennant race (2006) then I guarantee they will be blaming him.

In Sept 2006 when the Reds needed him more than ever he hit .161, slugged .264 and had 37 Ks in 87 ABs. He knocked in 5 runs for the entire month. That's enough to get any fanbase a little testy. If he has that sort of Sept swoon, let's see what they say about him then.

Fortunately Dunn has performed very well for Az thus far and that's the reason they're enjoying him so much.

RedsManRick
09-02-2008, 04:21 PM
It's a little early for the D-Backs folks to be saying that. Sept has just begun.

If they don't win the West and Dunn has a Sept swoon the last time he had the pressure of a pennant race (2006) then I guarantee they will be blaming him.

In Sept 2006 when the Reds needed him more than ever he hit .161, slugged .264 and had 37 Ks in 87 ABs. He knocked in 5 runs for the entire month. That's enough to get any fanbase a little testy. If he has that sort of Sept swoon, let's see what they say about him then.

Fortunately Dunn has performed very well for Az thus far and that's the reason they're enjoying him so much.

I'm pretty sure every Red except Rich Aurilia had a horrible September 2006. I'm sure every fan base gets down on it's stars from time to time, but I'm not sure how often the media guys lead the charge like they do in Cincy.

wheels
09-02-2008, 04:30 PM
It's a little early for the D-Backs folks to be saying that. Sept has just begun.

If they don't win the West and Dunn has a Sept swoon the last time he had the pressure of a pennant race (2006) then I guarantee they will be blaming him.

In Sept 2006 when the Reds needed him more than ever he hit .161, slugged .264 and had 37 Ks in 87 ABs. He knocked in 5 runs for the entire month. That's enough to get any fanbase a little testy. If he has that sort of Sept swoon, let's see what they say about him then.

Fortunately Dunn has performed very well for Az thus far and that's the reason they're enjoying him so much.


Wow.

nate
09-02-2008, 04:45 PM
It's a little early for the D-Backs folks to be saying that. Sept has just begun.

If they don't win the West and Dunn has a Sept swoon the last time he had the pressure of a pennant race (2006) then I guarantee they will be blaming him.

Why? Is Marty moving to Arizona?


In Sept 2006 when the Reds needed him more than ever he hit .161, slugged .264 and had 37 Ks in 87 ABs. He knocked in 5 runs for the entire month. That's enough to get any fanbase a little testy. If he has that sort of Sept swoon, let's see what they say about him then.

Fortunately Dunn has performed very well for Az thus far and that's the reason they're enjoying him so much.

Rubbish.

That race was lost by the repeated meltdowns of the bullpen (21 losses on the year, 10 from August on), and the slumping of the entire offense (.657 OPS in September) sans Rich Aurilia. Not to mention a starting staff who's ERA in August was 5.11.

If the bullpen blew 5 fewer games, the Reds would've been in the playoffs.

Sea Ray
09-02-2008, 04:56 PM
Rubbish.

That race was lost by the repeated meltdowns of the bullpen (21 losses on the year, 10 from August on), and the slumping of the entire offense (.657 OPS in September) sans Rich Aurilia. Not to mention a starting staff who's ERA in August was 5.11.

If the bullpen blew 5 fewer games, the Reds would've been in the playoffs.

What is it that's rubbish? That Dunn has performed well in Arizona thus far?

As for your other comments, what does that have to do with Dunn's numbers? I fail to see the connection between the starting staff's ERA, the blown saves by the bullpen and Dunn's .264 slugging percentage...

Raisor
09-02-2008, 04:59 PM
What is it that's rubbish? That Dunn has performed well in Arizona thus far?

..

.276/.488/.500

Sea Ray
09-02-2008, 05:02 PM
.276/.488/.500

How 'bout including "a point" with those numbers Raisor? Are you saying Dunn has performed well in Arizona? If you do, I'd agree.

RedsManRick
09-02-2008, 05:10 PM
Sea Ray was simply pointing out that Dunn's Arizona tenure isn't over. If he pairs that .276/.488/.500 August with a .176/.288/.300 September, it's quite likely they won't be singing his praises.

That said, around here Dunn would get criticized for walking with men on base, for having the audacity to watch bad pitches go by instead of trying to put one on the ground the other way. It remains to be see how he's treated elsewhere when he slumps, but we can already see that he's treated better when he's going good.

wheels
09-02-2008, 07:03 PM
Sea Ray was simply pointing out that Dunn's Arizona tenure isn't over. If he pairs that .276/.488/.500 August with a .176/.288/.300 September, it's quite likely they won't be singing his praises.

That said, around here Dunn would get criticized for walking with men on base, for having the audacity to watch bad pitches go by instead of trying to put one on the ground the other way. It remains to be see how he's treated elsewhere when he slumps, but we can already see that he's treated better when he's going good.

It's not what he's saying. It's what's behind what he's saying.

RedsManRick
09-02-2008, 07:31 PM
It's not what he's saying. It's what's behind what he's saying.

Oh, I understand. But that's a very slippery slope. Even when we think the implication is obvious, it's better to stick with what's been written and ask for clarification if necessary. It's those assumptions that lead to those meta discussions of who meant what. If the poster isn't willing to fess up to the underlying point when called out explicitly, then the argument is won. If they are, then allow them to state that point before you refute it.

Sea Ray
09-02-2008, 07:46 PM
Oh, I understand. But that's a very slippery slope. Even when we think the implication is obvious, it's better to stick with what's been written and ask for clarification if necessary. It's those assumptions that lead to those meta discussions of who meant what. If the poster isn't willing to fess up to the underlying point when called out explicitly, then the argument is won. If they are, then allow them to state that point before you refute it.


Good point. There's nothing underlying in what I said. Take it at face value and if clarification is needed, ask me what questions you have and I'll be happy to clarify. I'm a pretty direct guy. I tell it like it is and I pay no attention to what's considered politically correct on Redszone.

Frankly the posts that need clarification aren't mine. They're the ones like "wow" and "rubbish". I have no idea what such posts mean. None.

nate
09-02-2008, 08:26 PM
Good point. There's nothing underlying in what I said. Take it at face value and if clarification is needed, ask me what questions you have and I'll be happy to clarify. I'm a pretty direct guy. I tell it like it is and I pay no attention to what's considered politically correct on Redszone.

Frankly the posts that need clarification aren't mine. They're the ones like "wow" and "rubbish". I have no idea what such posts mean. None.

I think it's rubbish to attribute the loss of a post-season appearance to a single player slumping. Whether it's Dunn and the Reds in 2006 or whatever happens with Dunn and the D-Backs in 2008.

edabbs44
09-02-2008, 09:01 PM
Sea Ray was simply pointing out that Dunn's Arizona tenure isn't over. If he pairs that .276/.488/.500 August with a .176/.288/.300 September, it's quite likely they won't be singing his praises.

That said, around here Dunn would get criticized for walking with men on base, for having the audacity to watch bad pitches go by instead of trying to put one on the ground the other way. It remains to be see how he's treated elsewhere when he slumps, but we can already see that he's treated better when he's going good.

Maybe that's because they've only seen him going good.

Blimpie
09-02-2008, 09:28 PM
Oh, I understand. But that's a very slippery slope. Even when we think the implication is obvious, it's better to stick with what's been written and ask for clarification if necessary. It's those assumptions that lead to those meta discussions of who meant what. If the poster isn't willing to fess up to the underlying point when called out explicitly, then the argument is won. If they are, then allow them to state that point before you refute it.Excellent post.

RedsManRick
09-02-2008, 09:37 PM
I think it's rubbish to attribute the loss of a post-season appearance to a single player slumping. Whether it's Dunn and the Reds in 2006 or whatever happens with Dunn and the D-Backs in 2008.

This is what Sea Ray said:



In Sept 2006 when the Reds needed him more than ever he hit .161, slugged .264 and had 37 Ks in 87 ABs. He knocked in 5 runs for the entire month. That's enough to get any fanbase a little testy. If he has that sort of Sept swoon, let's see what they say about him then.

Now, the first time I read it, I had the same reaction. But Sea Ray never said that it was Dunn's fault the Reds didn't make the playoffs and didn't really even imply it. All he said is that when the spotlight was on back in '06, Dunn had a rough month. And he suggested that such a performance in a key spot can change perception. Certainly there were plenty of other Reds in the exact same boat that September.

If there was any implication, it was that we should give too many praises to the D'Backs announcers until we see how they respond if and when Dunn slumps.

nate
09-02-2008, 09:59 PM
This is what Sea Ray said:



Now, the first time I read it, I had the same reaction. But Sea Ray never said that it was Dunn's fault the Reds didn't make the playoffs and didn't really even imply it. All he said is that when the spotlight was on back in '06, Dunn had a rough month. And he suggested that such a performance in a key spot can change perception. Certainly there were plenty of other Reds in the exact same boat that September.

If there was any implication, it was that we should give too many praises to the D'Backs announcers until we see how they respond if and when Dunn slumps.

I understand.

I guess my point was that I think the "what have you done (Dunn?) for me lately?" attitude with regard to a key player is, poo. I mean, if one's team gets _close_ to the playoffs due to a guy's production for 5/6ths of the season, isn't it kind of crappy to blame him if they don't make it because he ends up having a bad month?

I mean, it's not like he's Steve Bartmann.

*BaseClogger*
09-02-2008, 10:37 PM
I understand.

I guess my point was that I think the "what have you done (Dunn?) for me lately?" attitude with regard to a key player is, poo. I mean, if one's team gets _close_ to the playoffs due to a guy's production for 5/6ths of the season, isn't it kind of crappy to blame him if they don't make it because he ends up having a bad month?

I mean, it's not like he's Steve Bartmann.

I agree. Stats in September aren't worth more than stats in the other five months. I think you need to look at the season as a whole when making judgments as to how valuable a player was...

edabbs44
09-02-2008, 10:46 PM
I agree. Stats in September aren't worth more than stats in the other five months. I think you need to look at the season as a whole when making judgments as to how valuable a player was...

No, but there is much more pressure during that month. Knowing the team you are battling with has already won that day and you are up in the 9th with the tying run on base is much, much different on Sept 20th than on May 20th.

*BaseClogger*
09-02-2008, 11:03 PM
No, but there is much more pressure during that month. Knowing the team you are battling with has already won that day and you are up in the 9th with the tying run on base is much, much different on Sept 20th than on May 20th.

Why is pressure significant?

edabbs44
09-02-2008, 11:40 PM
Why is pressure significant?

I'm not going to get into the whole "pressure", "RISP", "clutch" debate. Not going to take the bait.

RedLegSuperStar
09-02-2008, 11:50 PM
Has there been any indication on if Owings is infact the 3rd player in the deal?

*BaseClogger*
09-02-2008, 11:58 PM
I'm not going to get into the whole "pressure", "RISP", "clutch" debate. Not going to take the bait.

Didn't mean it as bait, I just stick by my stance that AB's with less pressure early in the season mean as much as the AB's late in the season with pressure...

SteelSD
09-03-2008, 12:34 AM
I understand.

I guess my point was that I think the "what have you done (Dunn?) for me lately?" attitude with regard to a key player is, poo. I mean, if one's team gets _close_ to the playoffs due to a guy's production for 5/6ths of the season, isn't it kind of crappy to blame him if they don't make it because he ends up having a bad month?

I mean, it's not like he's Steve Bartmann.

I'm actually surprised that no one's brought up the fact that the 2006 Reds weren't actually legitimate players in a "pennant race". They limped into September with a negative Run Differential and had produced a record above .440 in exactly one month (June) of the four prior. While it's certainly appropriate to note that any number of Reds' offensive players had poor Septembers that year, it sure as heck didn't happen while in a real honest-to-goodness "pennant race".

RedsManRick
09-03-2008, 12:41 AM
I'm actually surprised that no one's brought up the fact that the 2006 Reds weren't actually legitimate players in a "pennant race". They limped into September with a negative Run Differential and had produced a record above .440 in exactly one month (June) of the four prior. While it's certainly appropriate to note that any number of Reds' offensive players had poor Septembers that year, it sure as heck didn't happen while in a real honest-to-goodness "pennant race".

Steel, I would argue that "pennant race", like World Series champ, by wins and losses not team quality. Certainly 2006 showed us you don't have to be the best team to win a ring. One could easily, and rightly, argue that the team had no business making the playoffs based on the quality of their play. However, you can't ignore the GB column in the standings. The Reds were in a playoff race, even if they didn't really deserve to be there and even if a discerning eye could tell their chances weren't very good. Certainly the sources of "pressure", however defined, are based on a less sophisticated measure than you are applying -- and that's what matters in this case.

SteelSD
09-03-2008, 12:59 AM
Steel, I would argue that "pennant race", like World Series champ, by wins and losses not team quality. One could easily, and rightly, argue that the team had no business making the playoffs based on the quality of their play. However, you can't ignore the GB column in the standings. The Reds were in a playoff race, even if they didn't really deserve to be there and even if a discerning eye could tell their chances weren't very good. Certainly the sources of "pressure", however defined, are based on a less sophisticated measure than you are applying -- and that's what matters in this case.

That 2006 Reds team had played nine games under .500 from May through August after a miraculous defeat of the gods of luck in April. Especially in this case, we can completely ignore the GB column, as we often should, because the quality of a team speaks to it's ability to overcome deficits in the standings. That 2006 Reds team? No. No way.

As far as "pressure", that's a neat construct but unless we were inside each player's head, we have no idea whether or not it means anything at all- especially on a team that had been playing sub-.500 baseball for months.

September 2006 was something, but it certainly wasn't a "pennant race".