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redhawk61
08-12-2008, 02:27 PM
On the bats roster. I love the move, he had been hitting well and showing sustained success. Even though Henry/Dorn have been a little better and deserving of promotion, Stubbs has the higher ceiling, and of course a 1st round pick

OnBaseMachine
08-12-2008, 02:30 PM
Nice. Stubbs finished with a .315/.400/.402 - .802 OPS in just over 100 plate appearances in Double-A Chattanooga.

redhawk61
08-12-2008, 02:32 PM
The thing I love about it the most, is now I can track his progress through gameday and don't have to bother trying to here the Chatt broadcast through the crappy speakers I have

nate
08-12-2008, 02:32 PM
Nice, let's hope he keeps it up.

OnBaseMachine
08-12-2008, 02:33 PM
Chattanooga: Lookouts’s Stubbs promoted to Triple-A

By: David Paschall
(Contact)

Chattanooga Lookouts center fielder Drew Stubbs was promoted Tuesday morning to Triple-A Louisville. In just 26 games with the Lookouts, Stubbs hit .315 with eight doubles and nine RBIs.

Stubbs entered this season ranked by Baseball America as the No. 5 prospect in the Cincinnati Reds organization and the No. 100 prospect overall.

Just last season, outfielder Jay Bruce played 16 games with the Lookouts before his Triple-A promotion. Bruce began this year as Baseball America’s No. 1 overall prospect and received his big-league call-up earlier this summer.

Lookouts manager Mike Goff said Tuesday he believes the Stubbs promotion is permanent and not a temporary move because of injury.

See tomorrow’s Times Free Press Sports section for more information.

http://timesfreepress.com/news/2008/aug/12/chattanooga-lookoutss-stubbs-promoted-triple-/

dougdirt
08-12-2008, 02:34 PM
The thing I love about it the most, is now I can track his progress through gameday and don't have to bother trying to here the Chatt broadcast through the crappy speakers I have

I am glad to watch him hit. I haven't watched a Louisville game in weeks, but tonight I will probably sit down and take it in (if its on, haven't checked yet).

bucksfan2
08-12-2008, 02:34 PM
This may crash the server.

dougdirt
08-12-2008, 02:34 PM
Oh, its also worth noting Chris Heisey is no longer on the Sarasota roster, so he is likely the replacement in AA.

OnBaseMachine
08-12-2008, 02:35 PM
I am glad to watch him hit. I haven't watched a Louisville game in weeks, but tonight I will probably sit down and take it in (if its on, haven't checked yet).

Louisville is off tonight.

princeton
08-12-2008, 02:35 PM
I'd have kept him in Chatt.

but if the big leaguers weren't so messed up right now, I'd bring him up to Cincy.

JaxRed
08-12-2008, 02:38 PM
Hmmm, just a passing thought..... last year's 1st round prospect name goes thru Chattanooga like a knife thru hot butter. And this year's isn't much slower. We have to re-negotiate with Lookouts any day now.

Frank Burke (Lookouts owner) can't appreciate that

OnBaseMachine
08-12-2008, 02:42 PM
FWIW, Daryl Thompson is back on the Louisville roster too.

flyer85
08-12-2008, 02:43 PM
Walt is shinin' him up.

MrCinatit
08-12-2008, 02:43 PM
Perhaps with the departure of Dunn and Junior, Stubbs has now been put on the fast track.
But, I could be stating the obvious.

dougdirt
08-12-2008, 02:45 PM
Louisville is off tonight.

Well then tomorrow night it is! :D

lollipopcurve
08-12-2008, 02:45 PM
Glad to see Heisey moved up too. That kid has been extremely impressive in Sarasota.

OnBaseMachine
08-12-2008, 03:52 PM
Reds Promote Stubbs To Triple-A

Posted Aug. 12, 2008 1:29 pm by Ben Badler
Filed under: Daily Dish, Promotions

The eighth overall pick in the 2006 draft is headed to Louisville.

The Reds promoted Double-A Chattanooga center fielder Drew Stubbs to Triple-A, putting the 23-year-old one step away from the big leagues. Stubbs, who has 70 speed on the 20-80 scouting scale and good raw power, began the year with high Class A Sarasota, where he hit .261/.366/.406 in 86 games. In 26 games with Chattanooga, Stubbs batted .314/.400/.402.

Of the other top ten picks from the 2006 draft, eight have already reached the big leagues: Luke Hochevar, Greg Reynolds, Evan Longoria, Brandon Morrow, Andrew Miller, Clayton Kershaw and Tim Lincecum, with Kershaw the lone high school pick. The other two—Pirates righthander Brad Lincoln (No. 4 overall out of Houstin) and Orioles third baseman Billy Rowell (No. 9 out of a New Jersey high school) are still in the minors.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/prospects/

IslandRed
08-12-2008, 04:16 PM
I'm not sure what to think here. I don't think he's particularly earned a promotion. I could see Jocketty doing this as a little bit of old-fashioned Missouri show-me. He has to figure out what to do with center field, and Dickerson and Stubbs are both factors. Is next year's solution in-house? Is any year's solution in-house? He can either hold 'em, go shopping for a short-term guy or go shopping for a long-term guy. Obviously, he wants as much info as he can get on their readiness.

gedred69
08-12-2008, 04:21 PM
It seems obvious to me that Stubbs gets the bump up, (even though Dorn and Henry are every bit as deserving), as Stubbs is a stellar CF. Dorn though, appears to have some of the power lost by the departures of Duh-nn and Griffey. Next year may be very interesting filling out the starting OF. It may be wishful, but it would be ultimately fantastic if it can be accomplished from within the system :D:D

OesterPoster
08-12-2008, 04:43 PM
Heisey is now showing up on Chattanooga's roster.

puca
08-12-2008, 04:59 PM
I'm not sure what to think here. I don't think he's particularly earned a promotion. I could see Jocketty doing this as a little bit of old-fashioned Missouri show-me. He has to figure out what to do with center field, and Dickerson and Stubbs are both factors. Is next year's solution in-house? Is any year's solution in-house? He can either hold 'em, go shopping for a short-term guy or go shopping for a long-term guy. Obviously, he wants as much info as he can get on their readiness.

Louisville needs a CF. Stubbs certainly fits that bill.

I know some will claim he is only being promoted because he is a 1st round draft pick, but sometimes players are promoted because of orgranizational need. It doesn't hurt that Stubbs was doing quite well offensively in his limited AA exposure.

Kingspoint
08-12-2008, 07:05 PM
Bad move, Walt.

Stubbs has no business seeing Louisville this season.

Henry should have gotten the call.

Stubbs will fail.

.230/.330/.330

edabbs44
08-12-2008, 07:07 PM
Hope he keeps it up, but I am a little shocked at the early promotion.

dougdirt
08-12-2008, 09:40 PM
Bad move, Walt.

Stubbs has no business seeing Louisville this season.

Henry should have gotten the call.

Stubbs will fail.

.230/.330/.330

Why does he have no business seeing Louisville?

SMcGavin
08-12-2008, 10:51 PM
Wish it was Dorn, the guy who's mashed since the day he was drafted. Especially since we have such a powerful offense in the majors now. Can't say I'm extremely hopeful about Stubbs succeeding in AAA, but who knows.

LoganBuck
08-12-2008, 10:52 PM
Why does he have no business seeing Louisville?

Because he isn't Tim Lincecum?

I agree with IslandRed, about the future of the CF position in center as a reason for this. From Louisville's perspective, I would hate to go into a playoff game without a decent defensive centerfielder.

kaldaniels
08-12-2008, 10:53 PM
Bad move, Walt.

Stubbs has no business seeing Louisville this season.

Henry should have gotten the call.

Stubbs will fail.

.230/.330/.330

How did you feel he would perform at Chatt.?

BuckeyeRedleg
08-13-2008, 12:40 AM
Bad move, Walt.

Stubbs has no business seeing Louisville this season.

Henry should have gotten the call.

Stubbs will fail.

.230/.330/.330

I disagree. A bunch.

Oxilon
08-13-2008, 12:44 AM
Stubb's is 24 and was drafted out of a powerhouse collegic program. He wasn't drafted to be a project, but rather an already polished player who can make an impact in the majors a couple years after he's drafted. I really don't see any problem with promoting him to Louisville. If he were a pitcher, I'd be worried, but he's an everyday player and I'm in the belief that challenging everyday players is good thing.

dougdirt
08-13-2008, 12:57 AM
Stubb's is 24 and was drafted out of a powerhouse collegic program. He wasn't drafted to be a project, but rather an already polished player who can make an impact in the majors a couple years after he's drafted. I really don't see any problem with promoting him to Louisville. If he were a pitcher, I'd be worried, but he's an everyday player and I'm in the belief that challenging everyday players is good thing.

Few things.
1. Stubbs is 23.
2. He wasn't drafted to be a polished player. Everyone knew he was raw with tools, but needed to learn to use the ones at the plate.

BuckeyeRedleg
08-13-2008, 01:38 AM
Stubbs will 24 in less than two months, so he's actually closer to 24 than 23 (if we are going to get picky).

I agree with Oxilon. Nothing wrong with challenging a high pick out of college, especially a non-pitcher.

Blue
08-13-2008, 01:45 AM
Too old for his le-...

oh, nevermind!

Kingspoint
08-13-2008, 04:22 AM
Why does he have no business seeing Louisville?

Moving from High-A Sarasota to AAA Louisville with only 100 AB's in-between where he didn't exactly light things up is too quick of a jump. There are very few examples of players who've succeeded doing this with similar numbers that he put up for those 100 AB's. He's never exactly lit it up anywhere so with Stubbs, you're always riding a fine line.

I believe I understand why it was done, though.

While I've been a strong backer of Chris Dickerson, I believed until this new batting ability he's uncorked that he was only worthy of giving the Major Leauge Ballclub good enough numbers to be a starter for 2009. I believe Stubbs is the Centerfielder that they'd rather have, but that he wouldn't be ready to begin a full season with the REDS until 2011, being promoted to the ballclub in June of 2010. I think they're trying to see if they can hurry that along. I think Dickerson and Cumberland could have held the fort throughout the end of 2010. I don't think that the REDS feel the same way.

Kingspoint
08-13-2008, 04:36 AM
How did you feel he would perform at Chatt.?

I felt he would do well and that the promotion was well-timed. I was a little under on the AVG, OBP, and OPS (about 20 points there), but I was over on the SLG by about 40 points. His AVG was much higher there. Defensively he got to work with some new Coaches, though only for a short stint. There's a lot less coaching going on at AAA than there is at AA, though each individual is treated differently. He was only drafted two years ago. (2006 draft, right?) That's not very long at all. Everybody has their own pace.

The way the REDS have handled promotions the last three years, I'm extremely pleased. You're going to be wrong sometimes just from the human factor of the players alone. The REDS have been very successful.

The only 2 times I've disagreed with a promotion was the Daryl Thompson one, which they corrected immediately after admitting their mistake (not publicly) and doing the wise thing and shutting him down, and now this one. I'm wrong sometimes, too.

I definitely put this move under the category of "a gamble" by the REDS.

I'm tickled pink about the trade of Dunn and what we got in return for what it's opening up. This move is one of the moves that was made because of it. Stubbs stays in AA if Dunn isn't traded.

By the way, Cumberland has been doing almost as well in Louisville as Stubbs did in Chattanooga. Cumberland doesn't have the walks. (.278/.350/.472/.822 his last 10 games). Also, coaches decision or whatever, Stubbs practically stopped stealing bases when he got to Chattanooga. He had several outfield assists.

TRF
08-13-2008, 11:58 AM
How did you feel he would perform at Chatt.?

because 54 points of his total OPS at Chatt came on his first day. after that he was a worse hitter than he was in Sarasota, albeit a smaller sample. We were told he'd SLG better in the SL, and really, not so much. Now the response to this will be "oh sure anyone can make a player look bad by removing his best games" pheh. I said he'd get off to a hot start. He did. then he stunk for his next 60-70 AB's before getting hot again his last week in AA. All I did was take away his first game, not some random series.

That tells me Stubbs is easy to figure out. It also tells me he CAN make adjustments, but it takes him quite a while to do so. Pitchers in the FSL OWNED him in May-June. 180 AB's of SUB .650 OPS ball. He all around stunk. POST ASB all his AB's came in the SL, with one game before the SL ASB (his best game.) His OBP was great, .380, but he still didn't HIT. .368 SLG.

He can get on base, but we've seen with more exposuer to a league (FSL) that when he doesn't hit his OBP suffers. We didn't see him long enough in the Southern League to see if this would happen again.

I'd have left him in AA, but if you wanted to maximize his value as a potential trading chip, this was a smart move.

kpresidente
08-13-2008, 01:13 PM
I'd have left him in AA, but if you wanted to maximize his value as a potential trading chip, this was a smart move.

That was my initial reaction.

It could also be that WJ doesn't really like Stubbs as a prospect and is saying "Look, if you can't hit in AAA at 24 y.o., you're not a prospect. So here's you're chance to prove if you can hit in AAA.

carmack42
08-14-2008, 05:31 PM
I was looking forward to seeing Stubbs here in Huntsville last night, but under the circumstances I'll accept it.

They played a doubleheader. Heisey blanked in the first game, but hit 2 for 4 in the second. Not bad for a guy that must have had a crazy day.

Bonus: Stars manager Don Money got ejected in the 1st inning of the 1st game and didn't show up for the 2nd game. Dude must have wanted to watch the gymnastics final or something.

princeton
08-14-2008, 06:05 PM
Dude must have wanted to watch the gymnastics final or something.

Don Money = Humbert Humphrey

crazyredfan40
08-14-2008, 09:35 PM
because 54 points of his total OPS at Chatt came on his first day. after that he was a worse hitter than he was in Sarasota, albeit a smaller sample. We were told he'd SLG better in the SL, and really, not so much. Now the response to this will be "oh sure anyone can make a player look bad by removing his best games" pheh. I said he'd get off to a hot start. He did. then he stunk for his next 60-70 AB's before getting hot again his last week in AA. All I did was take away his first game, not some random series.

That tells me Stubbs is easy to figure out. It also tells me he CAN make adjustments, but it takes him quite a while to do so. Pitchers in the FSL OWNED him in May-June. 180 AB's of SUB .650 OPS ball. He all around stunk. POST ASB all his AB's came in the SL, with one game before the SL ASB (his best game.) His OBP was great, .380, but he still didn't HIT. .368 SLG.

He can get on base, but we've seen with more exposuer to a league (FSL) that when he doesn't hit his OBP suffers. We didn't see him long enough in the Southern League to see if this would happen again.

I'd have left him in AA, but if you wanted to maximize his value as a potential trading chip, this was a smart move.

I always love how you take out parts...IF you are going to take out his best game at least take out his worst game...You could also think about his leadoff spot experiment which didn't work...That was when he went bad...

TRF
08-15-2008, 10:32 AM
I always love how you take out parts...IF you are going to take out his best game at least take out his worst game...You could also think about his leadoff spot experiment which didn't work...That was when he went bad...

While it was his best game, it wasn't a random game. It was his FIRST game in AA. his next 89 AB's just weren't all that good. Especially his next 70. He did have a good week just before the bump to AAA.

I'm not cherry picking his stats. He had a hot start in early April, followed by 2 1/2 months of pure suckitude. I don't care what his LD% is. a .630 OPS over 2 months is awful.

Steve4192
08-15-2008, 10:42 AM
While it was his best game, it wasn't a random game. It was his FIRST game in AA. his next 89 AB's just weren't all that good. Especially his next 70. He did have a good week just before the bump to AAA.

I'm not cherry picking his stats. He had a hot start in early April, followed by 2 1/2 months of pure suckitude. I don't care what his LD% is. a .630 OPS over 2 months is awful.

You are absolutely cherry picking stats.

You removed his best game, then you immediately followed up by minimizing his final 19 at bats in Chattanooga. You claim he had a hot start in April and then sucked for 2 1/2 months, yet his numbers in Chattanooga certainly didn't suck .... unless you cherry pick all of his bad games and throw the good ones out.

If you are going to eliminate his best games, you have to eliminate his worst games too. If you eliminate all of Albert Pujols multi-hit games from his record and keep all the goose-eggs, he's going to look like a bum too.

kpresidente
08-15-2008, 11:49 AM
If you are going to eliminate his best games, you have to eliminate his worst games too. If you eliminate all of Albert Pujols multi-hit games from his record and keep all the goose-eggs, he's going to look like a bum too.

That's a good point. What happens to that .630 OPS if you scratch out a couple of o-fers as well? Plus, I'd want to know his OBP moreso than his OPS, as his only shot is probably as a lead-off hitter and I don't care very much what my leadoff hitter slugs. If that .630 OPS includes a .340 OBP, then I don't see much wrong with that.

camisadelgolf
08-15-2008, 12:49 PM
That's a good point. What happens to that .630 OPS if you scratch out a couple of o-fers as well? Plus, I'd want to know his OBP moreso than his OPS, as his only shot is probably as a lead-off hitter and I don't care very much what my leadoff hitter slugs. If that .630 OPS includes a .340 OBP, then I don't see much wrong with that.

I agree with you in principle, but to make one thing clear, if his OBP is .340, and his OPS is .630, that means his SLG is .290, and at that point, we're talking about something that's not tolerable from anyone but a pitcher. If he's OPSing at .700, then I'll say the Reds probably need an upgrade (no matter how good the defense is), but it's not necessarily their biggest need.

podgejeff_
08-15-2008, 12:55 PM
According to redsminorleagues.com, he went 2-4 with a walk, 2b, a homer, and two runs.

I have no idea what kind of pitching he was facing there, but good start so far.

camisadelgolf
08-15-2008, 12:57 PM
According to redsminorleagues.com, he went 2-4 with a walk, 2b, a homer, and two runs.

I have no idea what kind of pitching he was facing there, but good start so far.

That's from the day before yesterday.

podgejeff_
08-15-2008, 01:04 PM
Yeah, I just noticed that. Even so, I didn't think he'd go off that well in his first AAA game.

TRF
08-15-2008, 02:13 PM
You are absolutely cherry picking stats.

You removed his best game, then you immediately followed up by minimizing his final 19 at bats in Chattanooga. You claim he had a hot start in April and then sucked for 2 1/2 months, yet his numbers in Chattanooga certainly didn't suck .... unless you cherry pick all of his bad games and throw the good ones out.

If you are going to eliminate his best games, you have to eliminate his worst games too. If you eliminate all of Albert Pujols multi-hit games from his record and keep all the goose-eggs, he's going to look like a bum too.

Nope. Not cherry picking at all. I didn't eliminate his best games, just his first one. I looked at his largest body of work in AA minus his first game. His stats after his first game discounted what he did. I didn't pick random games or weeks of what he did at A+, it was 200 straight AB's of .630 OPS ball. I doubt Pujols ever had 2 weeks like that much less 2.5 months.

As for his numbers at Chatt, he gets an incomplete. A hot start followed by him not hitting until his last 7 games before the bump. Did he make an adjustment? Was it just a hot week? His development has been skewed by his draft slot. He's very similar to Dickerson except Dickerson had to prove himself at every level, and Stubbs has yet to prove he can sustain success at ANY level.

kpresidente
08-15-2008, 02:21 PM
He's very similar to Dickerson except Dickerson had to prove himself at every level, and Stubbs has yet to prove he can sustain success at ANY level.
Ironically, I'm sitting here defending Stubbs and I see him as very similar to Dickerson as well, which is why I can't seem to see why so many are hailing Dickerson as our next starting CF, but a so down on Stubbs. The truth about both is that they're mediocre propects.

There is a rush job going on with Stubbs that Dickerson didn't get, but my guess is that it has a lot to do with the needs of the big-league club. CF wasn't totally a void a couple seasons ago when Dickerson was making his way through the lower minors.

kaldaniels
08-15-2008, 02:21 PM
Nope. Not cherry picking at all. I didn't eliminate his best games, just his first one. I looked at his largest body of work in AA minus his first game. His stats after his first game discounted what he did. I didn't pick random games or weeks of what he did at A+, it was 200 straight AB's of .630 OPS ball. I doubt Pujols ever had 2 weeks like that much less 2.5 months.

As for his numbers at Chatt, he gets an incomplete. A hot start followed by him not hitting until his last 7 games before the bump. Did he make an adjustment? Was it just a hot week? His development has been skewed by his draft slot. He's very similar to Dickerson except Dickerson had to prove himself at every level, and Stubbs has yet to prove he can sustain success at ANY level.


Why would you discount his first game just on the basis that it was the first game.

Answer this...if Stubbs had gone 0-2 with a walk his first game would you still remove it.

Should we remove the first game from every players statline after they advance a level? I don't mind analysis and explanations to show your point of view...but it comes off kinda comical that your explanation is that you are deleting his first game just because it was the first game. Face it, if he went 0-2 you would include that in your numbers.

Just because Drew Stubbs best (or one of the best) games he had came in game #1 at Chatt...that does mean it should be stricken from the record and erased from his total stat line there. Johnny Cueto's major league debut still should count in his stat line, right?

dougdirt
08-15-2008, 02:25 PM
So now we are trying to compare Drew Stubbs to Pujols? Whenever you compare anything anyone does to Pujols, whoever else loses. Thats a silly argument. Stubbs is in the minor leagues for a reason. To refine and develop his game. He is still learning to hone in his skills.

As long as he just keeps doing what he has been, he will be fine. Walks, line drives and his current strikeout rate will be fine. Just keep doing what you are doing Drew, it will work.

11larkin11
08-15-2008, 02:55 PM
So now we are trying to compare Drew Stubbs to Pujols? Whenever you compare anything anyone does to Pujols, whoever else loses. Thats a silly argument. Stubbs is in the minor leagues for a reason. To refine and develop his game. He is still learning to hone in his skills.

As long as he just keeps doing what he has been, he will be fine. Walks, line drives and his current strikeout rate will be fine. Just keep doing what you are doing Drew, it will work.

I disagree Doug. Ryan Howard is MUCH better at striking out than Pujols;)

TRF
08-15-2008, 04:07 PM
Why would you discount his first game just on the basis that it was the first game.

Answer this...if Stubbs had gone 0-2 with a walk his first game would you still remove it.

Should we remove the first game from every players statline after they advance a level? I don't mind analysis and explanations to show your point of view...but it comes off kinda comical that your explanation is that you are deleting his first game just because it was the first game. Face it, if he went 0-2 you would include that in your numbers.

Just because Drew Stubbs best (or one of the best) games he had came in game #1 at Chatt...that does mean it should be stricken from the record and erased from his total stat line there. Johnny Cueto's major league debut still should count in his stat line, right?

I might not have. I just think he's a meh prospect that is all glove but no bat. I said I thought he'd start off hot at AAA, like I said he'd start off hot at AA. I was right in that's what happened. But pitchers seem to adjust real quick to Stubbs game, and he's slower to make his follow up adjustment. It's happened at two levels this year, and because he hasn't had ANY SUSTAINED SUCCESS at any level, it's hard to project him as a future major leaguer. But if this year is any indication, when he doesn't post good SLG numbers, his OBP suffers greatly. That turns him into a CF version of Anderson Machado.

What the Reds need is a little better version of Dickerson, and younger. Right now that just isn't what I am seeing from Drew Stubbs.


So now we are trying to compare Drew Stubbs to Pujols? Whenever you compare anything anyone does to Pujols, whoever else loses. Thats a silly argument. Stubbs is in the minor leagues for a reason. To refine and develop his game. He is still learning to hone in his skills.

As long as he just keeps doing what he has been, he will be fine. Walks, line drives and his current strikeout rate will be fine. Just keep doing what you are doing Drew, it will work.

I didn't make the comp, just responded to it. Comparing anyone to Pujols is silly.

M2
08-15-2008, 05:01 PM
I'm glad Stubbs is in AAA and I hope he has a hot finish to the season, maybe even a cup of coffee in the majors in September.

Then trade him.

kpresidente
08-15-2008, 05:26 PM
I'm glad Stubbs is in AAA and I hope he has a hot finish to the season, maybe even a cup of coffee in the majors in September.

Then trade him.

I wonder if Stubbs has much value. Major-league scouts and GMs don't follow BAs top-100 list. I remember last year when WK was looking for a starter, a lot more teams wanted Cueto than Bailey. They knew the deal with Homer, even though he had all the media hype. I don't think anybody's going to be fooled by Stubbs.

dougdirt
08-15-2008, 09:43 PM
I wonder if Stubbs has much value. Major-league scouts and GMs don't follow BAs top-100 list. I remember last year when WK was looking for a starter, a lot more teams wanted Cueto than Bailey. They knew the deal with Homer, even though he had all the media hype. I don't think anybody's going to be fooled by Stubbs.

Hate to break it to you.... but the information you get from BA, they get from MLB employeed scouts. The guys that work there aren't scouts, they just talk to scouts. So in a sense, MLB scouts are the ones who help make up the BA top 100.

Steve4192
08-16-2008, 02:34 AM
I wonder if Stubbs has much value. Major-league scouts and GMs don't follow BAs top-100 list.

I'm pretty sure Jim Bowden uses the BBA top 100 as his gospel. He snaps up every washout who has ever appeared on that list.

traderumor
08-16-2008, 10:59 AM
While it was his best game, it wasn't a random game. It was his FIRST game in AA. his next 89 AB's just weren't all that good. Especially his next 70. He did have a good week just before the bump to AAA.

I'm not cherry picking his stats. He had a hot start in early April, followed by 2 1/2 months of pure suckitude. I don't care what his LD% is. a .630 OPS over 2 months is awful.Gee, but if they left him down there two more days, he could have had a 6 for 8 with 2 homers and three doubles and bumped it right back up.

This just isn't a valid way to analyze statistical information in this game.

TRF
08-16-2008, 08:33 PM
or gone 0-8.

Thing is, Stubbs has a pretty recognizable pattern right now. Hot for a short time, then dominated for a considerable length of time. He never re-adjusted in the FSL. He might have been doing that in AA, but we'll never know. Guess we'll see how he handles AAA.

reds44
08-16-2008, 08:48 PM
Stubbs will 24 in less than two months, so he's actually closer to 24 than 23 (if we are going to get picky).

I agree with Oxilon. Nothing wrong with challenging a high pick out of college, especially a non-pitcher.
So he's 23.

kpresidente
08-16-2008, 10:17 PM
Hate to break it to you.... but the information you get from BA, they get from MLB employeed scouts. The guys that work there aren't scouts, they just talk to scouts. So in a sense, MLB scouts are the ones who help make up the BA top 100.

You're not going to convince me that media hype doesn't influence their lists. What about my example of Bailey and Cueto last year? BA had Bailey top-10, but it didn't take long for me to realize everybody wanted Cueto. I'm sure the scouts feed them a bone from time to time, but I don't believe for a second that what they put out is a mirror reflection of the thinking that's going on within the organizations.

BuckeyeRedleg
08-16-2008, 11:29 PM
So he's 23.

23 and 5/6thssss.

Today was his 24th August 16th and he's closer to 24 than 23. Whatever floats your boat.

kaldaniels
08-17-2008, 12:59 AM
23 and 5/6thssss.

Today was his 24th August 16th and he's closer to 24 than 23. Whatever floats your boat.

In the universe I live in, which is the only universe I can speak for, if you are 23 years old, that makes you closer to being 23 years old than 24 years old.

He is a 23 year old. Let's not make it more complex than that. 2 months from now you can use 24 as his age.

Seriously, I know what you are getting at, but just say he is "almost 24". It sounds a lot better.

Redszone: The only forum on the internet where the age of someone is argued about :thumbup:

thatcoolguy_22
08-17-2008, 02:26 AM
In the universe I live in, which is the only universe I can speak for, if you are 23 years old, that makes you closer to being 23 years old than 24 years old.

He is a 23 year old. Let's not make it more complex than that. 2 months from now you can use 24 as his age.

Seriously, I know what you are getting at, but just say he is "almost 24". It sounds a lot better.

Redszone: The only forum on the internet where the age of someone is argued about :thumbup:

hilarious :thumbup:

dougdirt
08-17-2008, 04:24 AM
You're not going to convince me that media hype doesn't influence their lists. What about my example of Bailey and Cueto last year? BA had Bailey top-10, but it didn't take long for me to realize everybody wanted Cueto. I'm sure the scouts feed them a bone from time to time, but I don't believe for a second that what they put out is a mirror reflection of the thinking that's going on within the organizations.

I have talked to the guys that work at BA and am friends with a guy that worked there before leaving for other opportunities. Scouts don't feed them a bone from time to time. They talk to scouts, as in plural, every day about guys. All of the main guys at BA (10-15 of them) talk with scouts every day, getting information and reports on players throughout the minors. Sure, their lists are subject to what a specific writer thinks, but he bases what he thinks off of what the scouts tell him about the player.

BuckeyeRedleg
08-17-2008, 03:30 PM
In the universe I live in, which is the only universe I can speak for, if you are 23 years old, that makes you closer to being 23 years old than 24 years old.

He is a 23 year old. Let's not make it more complex than that. 2 months from now you can use 24 as his age.

Seriously, I know what you are getting at, but just say he is "almost 24". It sounds a lot better.

Redszone: The only forum on the internet where the age of someone is argued about :thumbup:

And you just contibuted to it. Well done.

LOL.

For what it's worth, in the land of prospectville when comparing two prospects, age does matter. One guy could have just turned 23 and the other could be a month away from 24. In everyday world, we would call them both 23. Great.

But, when analyzing those two prospects at the same level, it's quite obvious that one is a year older than the other even though, AT THE CURRENT TIME, they are both 23. Personally, I use 23.1 and 23.11.

By the way, I wasn't arguing anything.

:thumbup:

JKam
08-17-2008, 04:46 PM
Just curious. Do people think Stubbs could at least match Corey Patterson's numbers if he was in the bigs now?

kaldaniels
08-17-2008, 04:49 PM
Just curious. Do people think Stubbs could at least match Corey Patterson's numbers if he was in the bigs now?

I'm pleased with the progress Stubbs is making, but I'm skeptical he could put up the same/better numbers playing regularly over 162 games than Patterson could right now. I'd want neither as my everyday outfielder right now in Cincy.

Give Drew some time and my answer will probably change.

SMcGavin
08-17-2008, 06:55 PM
I have talked to the guys that work at BA and am friends with a guy that worked there before leaving for other opportunities. Scouts don't feed them a bone from time to time. They talk to scouts, as in plural, every day about guys. All of the main guys at BA (10-15 of them) talk with scouts every day, getting information and reports on players throughout the minors. Sure, their lists are subject to what a specific writer thinks, but he bases what he thinks off of what the scouts tell him about the player.

I'm sure this is all true. But I also think that these lists are sort of self-fulfilling. Once a guy gets labeled as a top prospect, it is harder to knock him down the list. The Bailey/Cueto situation is a good example. Bailey was rated higher because he started off being rated higher. We learned in the trade season that MLB teams valued Cueto more, including the Reds. It's not that the people from BA are being fed false information or trying to make a bad list, it's just inescapable that there is going to be some human bias.

dougdirt
08-17-2008, 07:21 PM
I'm sure this is all true. But I also think that these lists are sort of self-fulfilling. Once a guy gets labeled as a top prospect, it is harder to knock him down the list. The Bailey/Cueto situation is a good example. Bailey was rated higher because he started off being rated higher. We learned in the trade season that MLB teams valued Cueto more, including the Reds. It's not that the people from BA are being fed false information or trying to make a bad list, it's just inescapable that there is going to be some human bias.

There is human bias with everything. I think Bailey was rated higher for his stuff to go with his projectability. Cueto also made a decent jump in velocity from last year to this year. He NEVER was able to hit 95-96 consistently until this year. He was always in the 90-94 range. Even still, I wouldn't be surprised if Bailey carved out a better career than Cueto. Short righties don't tend to have long careers, so its something that is going to hang over Cueto's head for a while until he puts up a few more years of 170+ innings a year.

Oxilon
08-17-2008, 09:32 PM
I don't know if it was more Cueto rising than Bailey falling to be honest. As of this time last year, all we heard about Bailey was he constantly hit the mid to upper 90's with his fastball, had an above-average changeup, and a curveball that needed some twinking but would still be an above-average pitch eventually. However, none of those pitches came to fruition in the majors. Atleast not yet.

bubbachunk
08-25-2008, 02:36 PM
Can anyone give an update on how Stubbs has looked thus far in his triple A play?

OnBaseMachine
08-25-2008, 02:40 PM
Can anyone give an update on how Stubbs has looked thus far in his triple A play?

I haven't seen him play but he's playing exceptionally well right now with a .348/.412/.587 - .999 OPS through 46 atbats and has stolen three bases and has thrown a couple runners out at home with his strong arm.

bubbachunk
08-25-2008, 02:43 PM
I haven't seen him play but he's playing exceptionally well right now with a .348/.412/.587 - .999 OPS through 46 atbats and has stolen three bases and has thrown a couple runners out at home with his strong arm.

Yea I saw that on CTrent's blog but was hoping someone maybe had gotten to see him in person.

Also how many games/ABs is that stretch over?

OnBaseMachine
08-25-2008, 03:11 PM
Stubbs has played in 11 games with Louisville.

dougdirt
08-25-2008, 03:46 PM
Can anyone give an update on how Stubbs has looked thus far in his triple A play?

He looks good. I have watched 5 or 6 games online of his. He doesn't look bad at the plate at all, and defensively he flat out goes and gets it. Very patient at the plate, waits for his pitch.

Sea Ray
08-25-2008, 04:22 PM
He looks good. I have watched 5 or 6 games online of his. He doesn't look bad at the plate at all, and defensively he flat out goes and gets it. Very patient at the plate, waits for his pitch.

Doug, do you think a Dickerson/Stubbs CF platoon in 2009 is a valid thought for next year or do you think WJ needs to go out and get a fulltime centerfielder?

The more I see Dickerson play, the more I'm mad that we've had to stomach Corey Patterson all year. I think we underrated him. He's a ballplayer playing a position of need.

One more thing, George Grande mentioned that Dickerson is not related to the RB Eric. I thought he was. Who's right?

kpresidente
08-25-2008, 04:39 PM
The more I see Dickerson play, the more I'm mad that we've had to stomach Corey Patterson all year. I think we underrated him. He's a ballplayer playing a position of need.


For the record...we've had to stomach Patterson because the didn't promote Bruce until halfway through the year. Patterson got demoted as soon as Bruce got called up.

It was after Griffey got traded that we started seeing Patterson for the 2nd time.

JoseRijo059
08-25-2008, 05:13 PM
Patterson was in the minors for like a week at the beginning of June... he came back when Freel got hurt, and assumed his regular lead off duties well before griff was shipped out.

dougdirt
08-25-2008, 05:16 PM
Doug, do you think a Dickerson/Stubbs CF platoon in 2009 is a valid thought for next year or do you think WJ needs to go out and get a fulltime centerfielder?

The more I see Dickerson play, the more I'm mad that we've had to stomach Corey Patterson all year. I think we underrated him. He's a ballplayer playing a position of need.

One more thing, George Grande mentioned that Dickerson is not related to the RB Eric. I thought he was. Who's right?

I don't think Stubbs/Dickerson should platoon, but I don't think going out and getting a full time CF is a good idea either because it will require more than a 1 year deal.

Dickerson has made some strides this year, but I still think over the long haul he will settle back in. He is on fire right now, but he isn't nearly as good offensively as we have seen.

I have always been under the impression that he and Eric Dickerson were cousins.

Sea Ray
08-25-2008, 05:31 PM
I have always been under the impression that he and Eric Dickerson were cousins.


He is the nephew of former NFL star Eric Dickerson.

source:

http://www.chattanoogan.com/articles/article_133125.asp

I don't know what George Grande was thinking...

I don't need Dickerson to hit .300 to play CF. With his athleticism I'll take a lot less than he's hitting now. He looks like a left handed Gary Pettis to me.

Doug, who do you think will project to be the better offensive player at the major leagues, Dickerson or Stubbs?

redhawk61
08-25-2008, 05:38 PM
source:

http://www.chattanoogan.com/articles/article_133125.asp

I don't know what George Grande was thinking...

I don't need Dickerson to hit .300 to play CF. With his athleticism I'll take a lot less than he's hitting now. He looks like a left handed Gary Pettis to me.

Doug, who do you think will project to be the better offensive player at the major leagues, Dickerson or Stubbs?
I know its directed at Doug but, Stubbs does all the things Dickerson does, but better.

Sea Ray
08-25-2008, 05:40 PM
I know its directed at Doug but, Stubbs does all the things Dickerson does, but better.

Great! I'm interested in what everyone has to add. Is Stubbs as powerful and fast as Dickerson? The ball really seems to jump off his bat

dougdirt
08-25-2008, 06:06 PM
Doug, who do you think will project to be the better offensive player at the major leagues, Dickerson or Stubbs?

I like Stubbs a lot better than Dickerson. Stubbs has all of the tools that Dickerson does, but they are better on Stubbs end. Stubbs made it to AAA 2 years quicker than Dickerson did, and has not really struggled yet while he has been there. Dickerson has more power right now than Stubbs does, but its not by a whole lot and Stubbs has more power potential in him than Dickerson. Stubbs also covers the plate a lot better than Dickerson does.

Will M
08-25-2008, 06:20 PM
Between Stubbs and Dickerson and Freel ( untradable due to injuries and money owed him ) I think CF is covered. The Reds have other problems. I don't want to see them waste resources on CF.

Degenerate39
08-25-2008, 06:53 PM
Between Stubbs and Dickerson and Freel ( untradable due to injuries and money owed him ) I think CF is covered. The Reds have other problems. I don't want to see them waste resources on CF.

That's true. I've heard Alonso might be ready to be with the Reds in September so that would move Votto to left field. Votto, Stubbs, and Bruce will be the Reds outfield for a long time. Until Duran and Y.Rod are up which is probably 4 to 5 years.

Gonzo will be back next year hopefully so there's the defense at Shortstop. The biggest hole on this team will be it's Catcher. Right now all they have are back up catchers at the best. Mes is still a ways off so you can't count on him for a while.

The Reds will have to concentrate on getting a starting catcher and probably more starting pitching.

Sea Ray
08-25-2008, 07:13 PM
That's true. I've heard Alonso might be ready to be with the Reds in September so that would move Votto to left field. Votto, Stubbs, and Bruce will be the Reds outfield for a long time. Until Duran and Y.Rod are up which is probably 4 to 5 years.

Gonzo will be back next year hopefully so there's the defense at Shortstop. The biggest hole on this team will be it's Catcher. Right now all they have are back up catchers at the best. Mes is still a ways off so you can't count on him for a while.

The Reds will have to concentrate on getting a starting catcher and probably more starting pitching.

I'm not so sure AGon will go right back to starting at SS. Assuming the INF doesn't change between now and 2009 I'd look for Kepp to take over SS. Kepp was our best offensive player before he got hurt. AGon's defense suffered even before his knee injury. We can't expect it to get any better after all he's gone through.

I agree top priorities should be a (LH) starting pitcher and a starting C

Degenerate39
08-25-2008, 07:17 PM
I'm not so sure AGon will go right back to starting at SS. Assuming the INF doesn't change between now and 2009 I'd look for Kepp to take over SS. Kepp was our best offensive player before he got hurt. AGon's defense suffered even before his knee injury. We can't expect it to get any better after all he's gone through.

I agree top priorities should be a (LH) starting pitcher and a starting C

Then if he's not back we have Keppinger there. Either way it's not that bad.

OnBaseMachine
08-25-2008, 07:17 PM
Keppinger is an AWFUL shortstop. The Reds are in serious trouble if he's the starting SS next season.

Hoosier Red
08-25-2008, 07:21 PM
I've got it.

The Reds can play Stubbs in LF and Dickerson in RF.
That will free up Bruce to play short center and make up for Keppinger's lack of range at SS.
Or he can play first base backup to cover all the throws that EE airmails or Votto somehow can't dig out(How long's he been playing 1b?).

bubbachunk
08-25-2008, 08:31 PM
Keppinger is an AWFUL shortstop. The Reds are in serious trouble if he's the starting SS next season.

agreed he makes the plays right at him but his range is so small for a start shortstop

PuffyPig
08-25-2008, 09:54 PM
Kepp was our best offensive player before he got hurt.

Well, maybe after Dunn, EE, Votto, Phillips and probably Griffey.

Sea Ray
08-25-2008, 10:53 PM
Keppinger is an AWFUL shortstop. The Reds are in serious trouble if he's the starting SS next season.

I disagree. Felipe Lopez was an awful SS. Kepp is very steady. He had below avg range for a SS before his injury but he had above avg "steadiness" (few errors). Post knee injury his range is even more limited. I'll put it this way. As of early June I was very pleased with penciling him in as the everyday SS. He was making all the routine plays and was hitting very well. I'm assuming he'll go back to that kind of player next year. If he does then he's our best option at SS IMO. Sure I'd love to trade for Jimmy Rollins but as of right now he's our best.

mth123
08-25-2008, 11:41 PM
I disagree. Felipe Lopez was an awful SS. Kepp is very steady. He had below avg range for a SS before his injury but he had above avg "steadiness" (few errors). Post knee injury his range is even more limited. I'll put it this way. As of early June I was very pleased with penciling him in as the everyday SS. He was making all the routine plays and was hitting very well. I'm assuming he'll go back to that kind of player next year. If he does then he's our best option at SS IMO. Sure I'd love to trade for Jimmy Rollins but as of right now he's our best.

Routine plays are defined by a guy's range. "All the routine plays" for Keppinger excludes a lot of plays that go for hits that would qualify as "routine plays" for a better defender. That has been the insidious nature of the Reds' defense in 2008. Balls that look like "clean singles" while the Reds are on the field are nothing of the sort. They are ground balls to the SS side of 2B, short fly balls into RF, tough plays where the throw is a little bit in the dirt and the 1B can't make the scoop, etc, etc, etc. Base hits all, but outs they should be.

OnBaseMachine
08-26-2008, 12:07 AM
I disagree. Felipe Lopez was an awful SS. Kepp is very steady. He had below avg range for a SS before his injury but he had above avg "steadiness" (few errors). Post knee injury his range is even more limited. I'll put it this way. As of early June I was very pleased with penciling him in as the everyday SS. He was making all the routine plays and was hitting very well. I'm assuming he'll go back to that kind of player next year. If he does then he's our best option at SS IMO. Sure I'd love to trade for Jimmy Rollins but as of right now he's our best.

Sorry, but Kepp isn't a good shortstop. If a groundball isn't hit right at him he doesn't make the play, and that kills a pitching staff. I don't know how many times this season I've seen a routine groundball get through the infield because of Kepp's subpar range. Those types of things lead to runs and high pitch counts. The number one obstacle for Jocketty this offseason needs to be acquiring a shortstop who can cover some ground.

Will M
08-26-2008, 12:16 AM
mth123 & OBM have it right. Kep just has no range. IMO he is fine as a bench player or a platoon 2B or 3B vs LHP but he is not a SS.

IMO the #1 offseason target should be a SS who can field the position and hit significantly better than Paul Janish. Janish can field but he doesn't look like he can hit a lick.

Finding a better catcher than Hanign/Castillo should also be on Walt's list but this need is less pressing than the SS.

Sea Ray
08-26-2008, 01:36 AM
If you are a believer of range factors you'll see that Kepp's was almost identical to Alex Gonzalez' last year and both of them were about league average. Kepp's was 3.96, AGon 3.99, league avg 4.00.

No question Kepp's knee injury has hurt his range this year. Again I'm not saying Kepp is Barry Larkin out there but he is AGon's equal defensively. I have not seen a better option in the Reds organization. If you'd like to suggest one let's hear it.

dougdirt
08-26-2008, 01:43 AM
Range factor is pretty crappy as a stat to compare a fielders ability. It doesn't take into account balls near him. Look at Keppinger's RZR and out of zone plays. Both are well below average (OOZ average plays based on total OOZ plays/total IP per SS).

As for a better option in the Reds organization.... Brandon Phillips. If not him, go outside of the organization, because Keppinger just can't cut it.

OnBaseMachine
08-26-2008, 02:06 AM
I'm already on record as saying I'd like to see Jocketty acquire someone from outside the organization like Chin-lung Hu of the Dodgers.

nate
08-26-2008, 09:00 AM
I'm already on record as saying I'd like to see Jocketty acquire someone from outside the organization like Chin-lung Hu of the Dodgers.

Do you think Hu's D is better than Janish's? Their offense looks very similar.

HokieRed
08-26-2008, 09:31 AM
Improved defense at SS must be WJ's first priority.

OnBaseMachine
08-26-2008, 12:40 PM
Do you think Hu's D is better than Janish's? Their offense looks very similar.

Janish looks to have slightly above average range whereas Hu is well above average. A lot of folks think Hu has a chance to be a Gold Glove caliber shortstop someday. As for offense, I like his bat a little better than Janish's. Janish is a career .264/.353/.386 - .739 OPS hitter in the minor leagues. Hu has hit .301/.347/.427 - .774 OPS. That's not a huge difference until you factor in that Hu in only 24 years old whereas Janish will turn 26 in October, and it appears Hu's bat took a turn for better last year when he hit .325/.364/.507 in AA/AAA. He was clearly overmatched in the majors this year but I still think he can hit enough to be an above average shortstop.

nate
08-26-2008, 02:20 PM
Janish looks to have slightly above average range whereas Hu is well above average. A lot of folks think Hu has a chance to be a Gold Glove caliber shortstop someday. As for offense, I like his bat a little better than Janish's. Janish is a career .264/.353/.386 - .739 OPS hitter in the minor leagues. Hu has hit .301/.347/.427 - .774 OPS. That's not a huge difference until you factor in that Hu in only 24 years old whereas Janish will turn 26 in October, and it appears Hu's bat took a turn for better last year when he hit .325/.364/.507 in AA/AAA. He was clearly overmatched in the majors this year but I still think he can hit enough to be an above average shortstop.

Good to know, thanks!

I was going to say, if they're virtually the same, just go with Janish. However, the thing I like the most (in addition to looking better all-around) is Hu's age.

Kc61
08-26-2008, 02:50 PM
I still don't understand why Janish hasn't been with the Reds the last month. His hitting will never be plus or even average. AAA isn't doing anything for him. The Reds need his defense.

Look at the ERAs on Louisville's pitching staff, far better than the Reds. Makes sense, the Bats have had Janish at shortstop and Dickerson in centerfield all year.

The Reds are missing the boat on Janish. There has been far more need for him on the major league team than utility guys like Andy Phillips.

Maybe they are just letting Janish complete his training in the minors. But with the Reds' defense on the left side of the infield, there is no good excuse for keeping Janish at AAA much longer.

The Reds certainly have to address the shortstop position, but I don't see why Janish isn't the guy to share the position with a primary guy.

puca
08-26-2008, 03:27 PM
I still don't understand why Janish hasn't been with the Reds the last month. His hitting will never be plus or even average. AAA isn't doing anything for him. The Reds need his defense.

Look at the ERAs on Louisville's pitching staff, far better than the Reds. Makes sense, the Bats have had Janish at shortstop and Dickerson in centerfield all year.

The Reds are missing the boat on Janish. There has been far more need for him on the major league team than utility guys like Andy Phillips.

Maybe they are just letting Janish complete his training in the minors. But with the Reds' defense on the left side of the infield, there is no good excuse for keeping Janish at AAA much longer.

The Reds certainly have to address the shortstop position, but I don't see why Janish isn't the guy to share the position with a primary guy.

The only thing I can think of is that they want to support Louisville as much as possible in their playoff run. I can respect that. I only wish they had at least gone out and aquired a stop-gap gloveman to finish out the year at SS for the Reds. Maybe they are harder to find than I thought.

RedsManRick
08-26-2008, 03:48 PM
Routine plays are defined by a guy's range. "All the routine plays" for Keppinger excludes a lot of plays that go for hits that would qualify as "routine plays" for a better defender. That has been the insidious nature of the Reds' defense in 2008. Balls that look like "clean singles" while the Reds are on the field are nothing of the sort. They are ground balls to the SS side of 2B, short fly balls into RF, tough plays where the throw is a little bit in the dirt and the 1B can't make the scoop, etc, etc, etc. Base hits all, but outs they should be.

Wonderful point mth. THis is one of those cases where our eyes tend to deceive us. There are numerous balls that a clearly a step or two beyond Kepp's range which a better SS would field with ease. It's the same problem that convinced some people that Junior wasn't all that bad. The ball would land 10 feet in front of him for a single when a better RF would've caught it on the run and it would've been considered an error had he missed it.

SMcGavin
08-26-2008, 04:56 PM
The Reds certainly have to address the shortstop position, but I don't see why Janish isn't the guy to share the position with a primary guy.

Because he's a terrible, terrible hitter. He's gone .253/.323/.397 this season as a 25 year old in AAA. And thats not a down year, it's actually a big improvement over his 2007 season. Just to give you a ballpark figure, the major league eviqualency of that is .214/.282/.324. Anybody with a .606 OPS should not be on a major league roster. And of course it was a small sample, but Janish had a .481 OPS in 70+ major league ABs this season.

I am OK with the concept of a slick fielding SS who struggles at the plate, but he at least needs to be able to get up close to a .700 OPS. Janish has shown nothing that would lead anyone to believe he can do that. No amount of defense is going to outweigh that poor of a bat.

Lockdwn11
08-26-2008, 05:29 PM
Sorry, but Kepp isn't a good shortstop. If a groundball isn't hit right at him he doesn't make the play, and that kills a pitching staff. I don't know how many times this season I've seen a routine groundball get through the infield because of Kepp's subpar range. Those types of things lead to runs and high pitch counts. The number one obstacle for Jocketty this offseason needs to be acquiring a shortstop who can cover some ground.

Not only is Kepp a bad SS he's not a SS at all. He has been mis-cast as a SS here because of need. We don't have a true SS on this team. He is a good player to have coming off your bench and thats not a bad thing. Alot of teams would love to have him but as far as SS goes I don't think he would play SS on any other team for more then a game or two.

camisadelgolf
08-27-2008, 01:45 AM
I agree--Janish is in Louisville because the Reds want to support the Bats. But after the playoffs are over, he'll be back in Cincinnati. I'm looking forward to him getting the chance to save some pitches from the Reds' young pitching. Keppinger does a good job of making the routine plays, but I would guess that he costs the Reds an out every second or third game or so. If he goes 3-11 over a three-game period, it's really like he went 3-12 if he did it as a shortstop. People really underestimate the importance of defense and range at shortstop.

Kingspoint
08-27-2008, 04:03 AM
People really underestimate the importance of defense and range at shortstop.

I agree. If you have a great Defensive Shortstop, the trickle-down effect on the rest of the ballclub is priceless, and it's not measurable by any statistic that anyone can come up with.

Great Defensive Shortstops make everyone on the team better. It's a huge hole for the REDS. I wish Phillips would move there. (He'll never get to start an All-Star game at 2nd Base with Utley around, so for him it would be a good move).

kpresidente
08-27-2008, 10:16 AM
(He'll never get to start an All-Star game at 2nd Base with Utley around, so for him it would be a good move).
Going from Utley to Hanley Ramirez is like stepping out of the pot and into the frying pan.

flash
08-27-2008, 11:50 AM
I wouldn't go out and spend a lot on shortstop. The reds need to get Neftali Soto to Louisville next and get him set to take over in 2010.

redhawk61
08-27-2008, 12:13 PM
I wouldn't go out and spend a lot on shortstop. The reds need to get Neftali Soto to Louisville next and get him set to take over in 2010.
He's not a SS.

RedEye
08-27-2008, 05:13 PM
I know this has been discussed elsewhere in this forum, but do any of the Reds SS prospects (Frazier, Valaika, Soto... ) actually profile to be able to play the position? I mean, Cal Ripken was a big dude, and he played an effective SS for many years. I know Cozart is a slick fielder, but I have a sinking suspicion he projects at best to be a sort of Janish-Gonzalez hybrid (solid fielding, weak hitting). That's not all bad, but it sure would be nice to have an all-around player to continue the Reds SS tradition.

It would also be nice to have a new flat screen TV.

dougdirt
08-27-2008, 05:43 PM
Redeye..... none of those guys you mentioned are shortstops. Valaika has the best chances, but he isn't a shortstop. Zach Cozart is the guy to keep an eye on. He has had a pretty solid year (he had a terrible May, but has been pretty good every other month of the season) and plays absolute top notch defense.

Betterread
08-27-2008, 10:15 PM
Redeye..... none of those guys you mentioned are shortstops. Valaika has the best chances, but he isn't a shortstop. Zach Cozart is the guy to keep an eye on. He has had a pretty solid year (he had a terrible May, but has been pretty good every other month of the season) and plays absolute top notch defense.
You might think Valaika is not a SS, but there are scouts that think he could be "serviceable" at the position. And the Reds organization thinks "Serviceable" is acceptable.
Cozart has had a nice offensive year - at 23 yrs old at low A. So did Paul Janish. Paul Janish is no offensive juggernaut. Cozart needs to hit at AA next year at 24 to start to impress me.

dougdirt
08-27-2008, 10:35 PM
You might think Valaika is not a SS, but there are scouts that think he could be "serviceable" at the position. And the Reds organization thinks "Serviceable" is acceptable.
Cozart has had a nice offensive year - at 23 yrs old at low A. So did Paul Janish. Paul Janish is no offensive juggernaut. Cozart needs to hit at AA next year at 24 to start to impress me.

The only people who think Valaika is a shortstop are guys working for the Reds. No other scouts think so. Is he serviceable? In the same way that Keppinger is, yeah, he is. For what its worth, Cozart will be 23 next year. Sure, he is 23 now, but he will be 23 until next August 10th. So Cozart actually had a nice offensive year in Dayton at 22 by all baseball standards.

redhawk61
08-27-2008, 10:52 PM
Is it only OBM and I who think Chris is going to give you Michael Young production from the SS position...and I wouldn't mind having that kinda production. Sure it won't be GG caliber D, but there would come a point that Chris' bat would over come that b/c of the availibility of power that he has, which is the one thing lacking from Kepp's game IMHO that keeps him from being an acceptable starting SS.

OnBaseMachine
08-27-2008, 11:06 PM
Is it only OBM and I who think Chris is going to give you Michael Young production from the SS position...and I wouldn't mind having that kinda production. Sure it won't be GG caliber D, but there would come a point that Chris' bat would over come that b/c of the availibility of power that he has, which is the one thing lacking from Kepp's game IMHO that keeps him from being an acceptable starting SS.

I still think his future is as a second baseman though. I like his bat a lot but I'd rather see a shortstop with some range over another range challenged SS.

Sea Ray
08-28-2008, 09:30 AM
Sounds like we either go outside the organization for a SS or we might as well stick with Keppinger in 2009

BRM
08-28-2008, 10:27 AM
Sounds like we either go outside the organization for a SS or we might as well stick with Keppinger in 2009

Then the Reds need to go outside the organization. I like Kepp as a utility guy and a bat off the bench but I don't want to see him as the starting SS next year.

Sea Ray
08-28-2008, 11:55 AM
Then the Reds need to go outside the organization. I like Kepp as a utility guy and a bat off the bench but I don't want to see him as the starting SS next year.

I'd be OK with him as a Bill Mueller-like 3B or 2B. I think he'd hit .320 with a lot of contact over a full healthy season and that's something no other Reds can do.

RedEye
08-29-2008, 01:10 PM
Redeye..... none of those guys you mentioned are shortstops. Valaika has the best chances, but he isn't a shortstop. Zach Cozart is the guy to keep an eye on. He has had a pretty solid year (he had a terrible May, but has been pretty good every other month of the season) and plays absolute top notch defense.

Thanks, Doug. That's what I figured. I just wondered whether the decisions had been made yet. I agree, Cozart has been a pleasant surprise as a hitter.

RedEye
08-29-2008, 01:12 PM
Just to turn this thread back towards its title for a second... how 'bout that Drew Stubbs!

dougdirt
08-29-2008, 02:21 PM
Just to turn this thread back towards its title for a second... how 'bout that Drew Stubbs!

Drew Stubbs - Over his last 436 PA outside of the FSL Drew Stubbs has hit .305/.388/.483 with 29 doubles, 7 triples and 8 HR.

Not shabby eh?

nate
08-29-2008, 02:24 PM
Drew Stubbs - Over his last 436 PA outside of the FSL Drew Stubbs has hit .305/.388/.483 with 29 doubles, 7 triples and 8 HR.

Not shabby eh?

Has he turned into Tim Lincecum yet?

;)

PuffyPig
08-29-2008, 02:40 PM
I'd be OK with him as a Bill Mueller-like 3B or 2B. I think he'd hit .320 with a lot of contact over a full healthy season and that's something no other Reds can do.

I doubt Kepp could hit .320. Even when he was hitting .300 he had a high BABIP which was likely unstainable.

SMcGavin
08-29-2008, 06:08 PM
Drew Stubbs - Over his last 436 PA outside of the FSL Drew Stubbs has hit .305/.388/.483 with 29 doubles, 7 triples and 8 HR.

Not shabby eh?

Though I usually roll my eyes when people say it, this is what people complain about when they say "you can make stats say anything". Combining his stats across low-A, AA, and AAA (with the data set starting right when he hit a hot streak), across two seasons, while tossing out two and a half months of data right in the middle of that stretch. Stubbs has been really impressive over the past two months, there's really not a need to doctor the data to make him look good.

dougdirt
08-29-2008, 07:29 PM
Though I usually roll my eyes when people say it, this is what people complain about when they say "you can make stats say anything". Combining his stats across low-A, AA, and AAA (with the data set starting right when he hit a hot streak), across two seasons, while tossing out two and a half months of data right in the middle of that stretch. Stubbs has been really impressive over the past two months, there's really not a need to doctor the data to make him look good.

Well when making the argument that the FSL hid what progress he had made, I don't think its 'making stats say anything'. Its showing what he did before and after leaving a hitter suppressing environment. Its like suggesting someone is a good hitter, but they played last year in Washington and are now playing somewhere else that is a little more friendly to hitters.

OnBaseMachine
09-22-2008, 03:38 PM
I was just reading a piece from Baseball America on Drew Stubbs. I can't post it on here because it's premium info but I'll try to give a little summary.

This was from a scout who watched Stubbs play:

The scout says Stubbs is legit - he says Stubbs will hit and his instincts in center field just blew him away. He's a big guy who can run. He centers the ball well and has plus bat speed and gets through the zone quick.

That's all it was. A short little piece but it was it was encouraging to hear scouts think he is legit.

Degenerate39
09-22-2008, 10:29 PM
So is there a chance that Stubbs will be the opening day centerfielder for the Reds?

OnBaseMachine
09-22-2008, 10:30 PM
So is there a chance that Stubbs will be the opening day centerfielder for the Reds?

I doubt it. I think Stubbs will begin the season in Louisville and Chris Dickerson will be the Opening Day center fielder for the Reds. If Stubbs tears it up in Louisville then you may see him in Cincy sometime during the summer.

dougdirt
09-22-2008, 10:30 PM
So is there a chance that Stubbs will be the opening day centerfielder for the Reds?

Yes, but I don't think its a very good one.

BRM
09-23-2008, 03:35 PM
I doubt it. I think Stubbs will begin the season in Louisville and Chris Dickerson will be the Opening Day center fielder for the Reds. If Stubbs tears it up in Louisville then you may see him in Cincy sometime during the summer.

I agree, Stubbs starts in Louisville. However, I'm not at all convinced Chris Dickerson will be in CF on opening day for the Reds.

Will M
09-23-2008, 04:13 PM
I agree, Stubbs starts in Louisville. However, I'm not at all convinced Chris Dickerson will be in CF on opening day for the Reds.

Dickerson + either Freel or Hairston should be the CF combo early next year. Stubbs starts in AAA.

BRM
09-23-2008, 04:14 PM
Dickerson + either Freel or Hairston should be the CF combo early next year. Stubbs starts in AAA.

Yep, it should be. I won't be holding my breath though.

Crosley68
09-24-2008, 03:17 PM
The previous GM's prefered to wait till about June 1 to bring guys up to avoid Super 2 status.....not sure if Jockety is of the same ilk. He waited this year on Jay but that may have been because he had just taken over.

OnBaseMachine
09-25-2008, 10:59 PM
Sweet also managed 2006 first-round Draft pick Drew Stubbs this season. The outfielder batted .277 with seven homers, 57 RBIs and 33 steals combined over Class A Sarasota, Double-A Chattanooga and Louisville.

Stubbs batted .293 in 19 games with Louisville and is slated to play in the Arizona Fall League. He played center field exclusively, but could move to the other two outfield positions next year.

Like Bruce last season, Stubbs was pushed for the greater challenge of Triple-A closer to the end of the season to prepare him for next year.

"He held his own," Sweet said. "He left the season knowing he can play there next year. He'll come back, and he'll be, not a veteran, but he's been to most of the ballparks and knows what to expect. He's a very good player. Obviously, he's talented. But he made adjustments while he was with us. That's what you like to see."

http://cincinnati.reds.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20080925&content_id=3549073&vkey=news_cin&fext=.jsp&c_id=cin

redhawk61
09-25-2008, 11:13 PM
Sweet also managed 2006 first-round Draft pick Drew Stubbs this season. The outfielder batted .277 with seven homers, 57 RBIs and 33 steals combined over Class A Sarasota, Double-A Chattanooga and Louisville.

Stubbs batted .293 in 19 games with Louisville and is slated to play in the Arizona Fall League. He played center field exclusively, but could move to the other two outfield positions next year.

Like Bruce last season, Stubbs was pushed for the greater challenge of Triple-A closer to the end of the season to prepare him for next year.

"He held his own," Sweet said. "He left the season knowing he can play there next year. He'll come back, and he'll be, not a veteran, but he's been to most of the ballparks and knows what to expect. He's a very good player. Obviously, he's talented. But he made adjustments while he was with us. That's what you like to see."

http://cincinnati.reds.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20080925&content_id=3549073&vkey=news_cin&fext=.jsp&c_id=cin

Yeah and the Reds are also about to announce they have signed corey patterson to a 7 year deal, making CF a position locked up, leaving only LF for Drew

BRM
09-26-2008, 10:09 AM
He played center field exclusively, but could move to the other two outfield positions next year.


Is this just to make him more versatile or is there really a plan to make him a corner guy? Seems like his value would be much higher in CF than on a corner.

lollipopcurve
09-26-2008, 10:29 AM
home.insightbb.com/~goya551/public/Stubbs438HR.wmv (home.insightbb.com/%7Egoya551/public/Stubbs438HR.wmv)

Not sure if this has already been posted. Shows Stubbs cranking a breaking pitch on the inside half... You can see the power is there.

Mario-Rijo
09-26-2008, 10:58 AM
home.insightbb.com/~goya551/public/Stubbs438HR.wmv (home.insightbb.com/%7Egoya551/public/Stubbs438HR.wmv)

Not sure if this has already been posted. Shows Stubbs cranking a breaking pitch on the inside half... You can see the power is there.

Nice find LC, I reposted it so folks can just click.

http://home.insightbb.com/~goya551/public/Stubbs438HR.wmv