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texasdave
08-12-2008, 05:25 PM
Just saw this quote from Bronson Arroyo in Fay's blog.

http://news.cincinnati.com/apps/pbcs.dll/section?category=blog07&plckController=Blog&plckScript=blogScript&plckElementId=blogDest&plckBlogPage=BlogViewPost&plckPostId=Blog%3ae57bcc87-152a-4f72-96fb-cc08b1f396efPost%3a78b03446-f49b-4df9-b969-cbdcaf0bebd1&sid=sitelife.cincinnati.com

Bronson Arroyo is always gives you an honest answer. When asked if he suprised by the Adam Dunn trade, he said:


"A little bit because it came after the deadline. But he was going to be moved no matter what. I don't know if he told (the media) but he made it was no secret to us that he was looking for $100 to $120 million contract. I don't think this franchise is going to give out that kind of contract."

So much for the 4-year, $60 million dollar dreams. I would imagine that is for 6 or 7 years. Looking at what Carlos Lee and Alfonso Soriano received those numbers may not be completely out in left field. Any thoughts???? Is AD worth over $100 million?

Lockdwn11
08-12-2008, 05:34 PM
LOL Good luck with that Adam.

AdmAckbar
08-12-2008, 05:37 PM
wow.. No one is going to give him that type of dollars.

BLEEDS
08-12-2008, 05:37 PM
So much for the 4-year, $60 million dollar dreams. I would imagine that is for 6 or 7 years. Looking at what Carlos Lee and Alfonso Soriano received those numbers may not be completely out in left field. Any thoughts???? Is AD worth over $100 million?

Depends on how many years. 6 years, yes. 5 years, no.

Like I said, IFF that is true and the FO obviously knew about it, then they HAD TO KNOW there was NO WAY in Hades he would accept a one year Arbitration number.

We were literally GUARANTEED 2 Comp picks.

They MUST (read: BETTER) have really gotten a sweet deal from Arizona, and truly "got the players they wanted". If Micah Owings or/and Whitesell, then I'd rather have the Comp Picks.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

Chi-Town Red
08-12-2008, 05:38 PM
no one is going to pay him that...with all the teams that passed on him....no way!

Kingspoint
08-12-2008, 05:59 PM
Someone thinks he's "special".

steig
08-12-2008, 06:09 PM
Adam, will only get that if the yankees are dumb enough to give it to him. They did sign the Giambi deal and then followed up their ignorance with the signing of Damon.

Manut Bol
08-12-2008, 06:14 PM
Adam Dunn is the new mayor of Fantasy Land.

killuminati35
08-12-2008, 06:15 PM
Has there been any quotes from AD about the trade? I haven't seen a reaction from him anywhere.

Oxilon
08-12-2008, 06:35 PM
I'd say Dunn is going to be getting a contract very similiar to Carlos Lee...maybe even more since every offseason contracts keep get more and more expensive.

I(heart)Freel
08-12-2008, 06:35 PM
Depends on how many years. 6 years, yes. 5 years, no.

Like I said, IFF that is true and the FO obviously knew about it, then they HAD TO KNOW there was NO WAY in Hades he would accept a one year Arbitration number.

We were literally GUARANTEED 2 Comp picks.

They MUST (read: BETTER) have really gotten a sweet deal from Arizona, and truly "got the players they wanted". If Micah Owings or/and Whitesell, then I'd rather have the Comp Picks.


I think everyone here is questioning whether he can command his $100+ asking price. So, let's say he doesn't... then maybe it's not a bad thing for him to accept arbitration, put up the same numbers in 2009 and try for the big payday again next year, when more teams need an OF?

In other words, it was no guarantee. Plus, how does a club truly turn a page if a guy hangs around all off-season like that. Will he be back? Won't he be back? How do you plan a team around that big of a question mark? Talk about a distraction.

We obviously need to know the PTBNLs before anyone can judge this thing. But since we sent cash with Adam on his flight out west, I am nearly positive we will get back more than 2 comp picks' worth of value.

DTCromer
08-12-2008, 07:03 PM
I'm not saying he won't get it, but you're crazy if the Reds were going to pay him that.

And if the Reds paid him that, then this organization is dumber than I thought.

tsj017
08-12-2008, 08:59 PM
Just another reason to be glad he's gone. Someone else's problem now!

I think the Reds wanted to make 100% sure he wouldn't be here next year. You have to offer him arbitration to get the picks, right? There was always the chance--slim, maybe, but the chance--that he'd accept it. And then we're stuck with him for another year.

This way, we're certain he won't be here. Good move.

FlyerFanatic
08-12-2008, 09:39 PM
did anyone see dustys interview during the game? grande asked him if he had expressed interest to jocketty about acquiring dunn in FA. baker said he has already asked about it...is baker stupid? i mean maybe he doesnt wanna go off and say "well no, he'll want to much money and his defense isnt worth that money" or something...but still. say something like "i havent been thinking about it right now...keeping my eye on this season" mind blowing really

Mutaman
08-12-2008, 10:10 PM
The Yankees are taking a lot of heat for not going after Santana last year, particularly since it now appears that Kennedy is a stiff. That being said, expect the Yankees to be big spenders in the off-season particularly if they don't make the playoffs. But they will target Teixeira and Sabathia. I doubt if Dunn is even on their radar.

improbus
08-12-2008, 10:21 PM
The Yankees are taking a lot of heat for not going after Santana last year, particularly since it now appears that Kennedy is a stiff. That being said, expect the Yankees to be big spenders in the off-season particularly if they don't make the playoffs. But they will target Teixeira and Sabathia. I doubt if Dunn is even on their radar.

They will most likely not resign Giambi and Abreu, and Carl Pavano comes off the books. That equals somewhere around $48 million. That is alot of money.

Mutaman
08-12-2008, 10:31 PM
Good chance they won't resign Musina either despite the year he is having.

I doubt the Mets have any interest in Dunn either. They desperately need a corner outfielder now, but they didn't appear to show any interest in him. So if Adam wants to sign a big contract, he'll have to do it without the two biggest spenders in the bidding.

Oxilon
08-12-2008, 11:37 PM
Just another reason to be glad he's gone. Someone else's problem now!

I think the Reds wanted to make 100% sure he wouldn't be here next year. You have to offer him arbitration to get the picks, right? There was always the chance--slim, maybe, but the chance--that he'd accept it. And then we're stuck with him for another year.

This way, we're certain he won't be here. Good move.

The arbitration point is getting completely overblown and there was no way Dunn was going to accept the Reds first offer and avoid arbitration. That's how arbitration works -- the Reds lowball and Dunn asks for the moon. The arbitrator than comes up with a median of some sort. But in this case, the Reds would have made their lowball effort, and after Dunn's agent would laugh in their face, both parties would move on.

It was either Dunn gets traded (for now Buck, Owings, and PTBNL) or he walks in a month and half and we get 2 comp picks. Based on the Reds brilliant draft history, I'm glad they chose the former rather the latter.

Blue
08-13-2008, 12:42 AM
The arbitration point is getting completely overblown and there was no way Dunn was going to accept the Reds first offer and avoid arbitration. That's how arbitration works -- the Reds lowball and Dunn asks for the moon. The arbitrator than comes up with a median of some sort. But in this case, the Reds would have made their lowball effort, and after Dunn's agent would laugh in their face, both parties would move on.

It was either Dunn gets traded (for now Buck, Owings, and PTBNL) or he walks in a month and half and we get 2 comp picks. Based on the Reds brilliant draft history, I'm glad they chose the former rather the latter.

Actually, the arbitrator has to pick one party's proposal.

Still, your point is well made.

Ghosts of 1990
08-13-2008, 12:52 AM
Doesn't seem like adam

Blue
08-13-2008, 12:58 AM
I'm a huge Dunn fan, but I don't think he'll get more than 6 years/$90 million in his next contract. Probably more like 5 years/$80 million.

Of course, that doesn't exactly put him in the poor house.

BLEEDS
08-13-2008, 01:31 PM
I think everyone here is questioning whether he can command his $100+ asking price. So, let's say he doesn't... then maybe it's not a bad thing for him to accept arbitration, put up the same numbers in 2009 and try for the big payday again next year, when more teams need an OF?

You can't go to Free Agency, and THEN go to Arbitration later. That's not how it works.

If he accepted Arbitration, he would NOT BE ABLE TO TEST THE FREE AGENT WATERS. That's the whole point, he would have turned it down.

They WERE Guaranteed two comp picks.

Unless these two PTBNL's are ML-ready or top prospects - not veteran minor leaguers - than I say it's just another salary dump.

We shall see.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

Oxilon
08-13-2008, 02:14 PM
I'm a huge Dunn fan, but I don't think he'll get more than 6 years/$90 million in his next contract. Probably more like 5 years/$80 million.

Of course, that doesn't exactly put him in the poor house.

I disagree. Franchises are spending more and more money each year in free agency. And with how relatively weak this class is for everyday players, Dunn's going to land his big contract of excess $100MM.

Oxilon
08-13-2008, 02:18 PM
You can't go to Free Agency, and THEN go to Arbitration later. That's not how it works.

If he accepted Arbitration, he would NOT BE ABLE TO TEST THE FREE AGENT WATERS. That's the whole point, he would have turned it down.

They WERE Guaranteed two comp picks.

Unless these two PTBNL's are ML-ready or top prospects - not veteran minor leaguers - than I say it's just another salary dump.

We shall see.

PEACE

-BLEEDS


I'm not neccessarily trying to point you at specifically, just the entire crowd that would rather take the draft picks than the offer AZ offered.

But what makes you think the Reds would be better off with 2 comp picks than the 3 players they're getting back in the deal? With the Reds draft history, and Walt's too for that matter, I really don't have the confidence that the Reds would munster up anything in the loss of Dunn. Atleast we know we'll be getting something back that can help us in Owings and maybe Bucks.

Focusonit
08-14-2008, 10:41 AM
I don't see Dunn getting a 9 figure deal. Teams will be reluctant to spend that kind of money on essentially a one-tool player. The AL would be a great fit for Adam.

ChatterRed
08-14-2008, 12:26 PM
Adam Dunn is the new mayor of Fantasy Land.


He represents the Lollipop Gang. :D

Nasty_Boy
08-14-2008, 12:28 PM
I guess nobody has posted that Adam denied making these comments/demands. He said he didn't know where Bronson got that number.

texasdave
08-14-2008, 12:57 PM
You can't go to Free Agency, and THEN go to Arbitration later. That's not how it works.

If he accepted Arbitration, he would NOT BE ABLE TO TEST THE FREE AGENT WATERS. That's the whole point, he would have turned it down.

They WERE Guaranteed two comp picks.

Unless these two PTBNL's are ML-ready or top prospects - not veteran minor leaguers - than I say it's just another salary dump.

We shall see.

PEACE

-BLEEDS


Actually a player can pursue free agency and then, later on, accept Arbitration. In fact, it is almost a certainty that he has. Here are the dates according to ESPN:

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?page=mlb_calendar


October/November -- Free agent filing period, first 15 days after World Series ends

Nov. 3-6 -- General managers' meetings, Dana Point, Calif.

November -- On 16th day after World Series, major league free agents may negotiate and sign with a club other than their former club

Dec. 1 -- Last day for teams to offer salary arbitration to their former players who became free agents
Dec. 7 -- Last day for free agents offered salary arbitration to accept the offers

You are correct in stating that the Arbitration is binding. So once a player does accept Arbritation his free agency days are over.

But between the 16th day after the World Series ends and the deadline for accepting Arbitration (assuming his former club offers it) a player can and probably does engage in free agent negotiations.

In the case of Adam Dunn, he could gauge the interest of the market and still decide to accept Arbitration if the Reds offered it.

Ahhhorsepoo
08-14-2008, 12:58 PM
bronson wouldn't just make that up.. sorry but that is not something you would just DREAM UP..

Nasty_Boy
08-14-2008, 01:10 PM
Bronson dreams up a lot of things... like the idea that he can sing.

You believe Bronson and I'll believe AD and we'll both never know. You act like you know these guys and are in the clubhouse with them. How do you know Bronson would make that up? Maybe AD did say it... who knows? But I can't believe that this is even a topic.

redsbuckeye
08-14-2008, 01:14 PM
Bronson dreams up a lot of things... like the idea that he can sing.

I keep seeing his CD in Kroger.

Ahhhorsepoo
08-14-2008, 01:14 PM
i am just saying.. why would a former teammate come out and make something like that up..

what part of logic would make you think bronson would say..

ohh yeah he said he wanted 100-120 million...........................

without hearing it.. maybe dunn said.. "it'd be nice to get 120 mil".. and bronson took that as he was going to try and command that.. i dont know.. but at some point i am sure the words 100-120 million came out of his mouth..

Nasty_Boy
08-14-2008, 01:29 PM
How sure are you?

NastyBoy
08-14-2008, 01:30 PM
Once Dunn shows how clutch he is in Arizona and leads them to the world series, he will have a huge payday. ;)

757690
08-14-2008, 01:34 PM
I guess nobody has posted that Adam denied making these comments/demands. He said he didn't know where Bronson got that number.

There is absolutely no reason for Bronson to make this up, and every reason for Dunn to deny that he said it.

That doesn't mean Dunn did make that claim, just that Bronson is more believable in this situation.

Jr's Boy
08-14-2008, 03:00 PM
Adam, will only get that if the yankees are dumb enough to give it to him. They did sign the Giambi deal and then followed up their ignorance with the signing of Damon.




Johnny Damon

130/404 66 8 51 19 .322

ChatterRed
08-14-2008, 04:00 PM
Bronson dreams up a lot of things... like the idea that he can sing.

You believe Bronson and I'll believe AD and we'll both never know. You act like you know these guys and are in the clubhouse with them. How do you know Bronson would make that up? Maybe AD did say it... who knows? But I can't believe that this is even a topic.

Look around you at all the letters. This is called a thread TOPIC. :D :p: ;)

berryluther
08-14-2008, 04:09 PM
Soriano and Lee hit about70 points hiigher than Dunn. I expect for some fol to give Dunn 6yrs 80 mil. and regret it in year 3.

redsbuckeye
08-14-2008, 04:19 PM
Soriano and Lee hit about70 points hiigher than Dunn. I expect for some fol to give Dunn 6yrs 80 mil. and regret it in year 3.

That's actually a good comparison, considering they all make pretty close to the same amount of money and contribute about the same to their teams, BA nonsense nonwithstanding.

And 80 over 6 is barely more than what he makes yearly now.

I'd be all for it!

Ahhhorsepoo
08-14-2008, 04:29 PM
I honestly think that Dunn will be run out of baseball.. i just think too many people think his assets aren't that good for the money his 40 homer power will command.. he will be put in as a DH somewhere and will slowly lose the spot when his power starts to diminish in the next 3-5 years like MOST sluggers.. and we all know that is his only tool....

redsbuckeye
08-14-2008, 06:06 PM
I honestly think that Dunn will be run out of baseball.. i just think too many people think his assets aren't that good for the money his 40 homer power will command.. he will be put in as a DH somewhere and will slowly lose the spot when his power starts to diminish in the next 3-5 years like MOST sluggers.. and we all know that is his only tool....

Most sluggers like who? Power actually traditionally develops later in career, unlike all the other "tools". That's not to say it'd be unprecedented that Dunn would lose power, but the usual trends say he should hold it until his decline.

Nasty_Boy
08-14-2008, 06:12 PM
Dunn is just hitting his prime. I expect his power numbers to go up along with that silly batting average and RBIs count because he'll be playing on a better team, and hitting 3-4 in the lineup.

Oxilon
08-14-2008, 06:22 PM
Dunn's still got atleast 6-7 years of putting up 40+ HRs a season, and that's the very minimum. His eye and/or plate discipline won't dimish either. So basically his two best tools, power and plate discipline, should only be getting better well into the next decade. His defense is another story, but to say he'll be kicked out of the league and not be able to DH is just nonsense.

Nasty_Boy
08-14-2008, 10:48 PM
“I don’t know where that number would come from,” said Dunn. “False information, that’s all I can say. That makes me look like a jackass. You never hear players talking about money. I don’t think about the offseason. Me and my agent don’t even talk about numbers.”



Here's what AD had to say to Hal McCoy on the subject.

Fullboat
08-15-2008, 12:34 AM
Dunn will be fine,but he is in for some major market correction no higher than 50 mill. 4yrs.

ChatterRed
08-15-2008, 01:09 AM
They were making fun of Adam on ESPN tonight, while recapping the 'Zona game.

BLEEDS
08-15-2008, 01:17 PM
I honestly think that Dunn will be run out of baseball.. i just think too many people think his assets aren't that good for the money his 40 homer power will command.. he will be put in as a DH somewhere and will slowly lose the spot when his power starts to diminish in the next 3-5 years like MOST sluggers.. and we all know that is his only tool....

Just FYI, this post was so foolish, someone from the ORG made it a point to quote it for example of the "brilliance" of some folks valuation of the best offensive force on the Reds for the last decade.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

Ahhhorsepoo
08-15-2008, 01:25 PM
thats great.. in 6 years i will be laughing at all of them..

Ahhhorsepoo
08-15-2008, 01:27 PM
Most sluggers like who? Power actually traditionally develops later in career, unlike all the other "tools". That's not to say it'd be unprecedented that Dunn would lose power, but the usual trends say he should hold it until his decline.

yeah hold it for a few more years.. i.e. til he is 32 or 33.. and then he will be fading.. I also dont know too many(more than 1) hitters who drastically improve their power(without PED's) after their 8th or 9th year in the league..

redsbuckeye
08-15-2008, 01:35 PM
yeah hold it for a few more years.. i.e. til he is 32 or 33.. and then he will be fading.. I also dont know too many(more than 1) hitters who drastically improve their power(without PED's) after their 8th or 9th year in the league..

I didn't say improve, I said hold. Even after average and speed drop off the power is usually still there to about 36 or so, barring any major injuries (like Griffey).

When I said power develops later in the career i meant it's usually mid to late 20's before you see full development, unlike the other tools where it's early to mid 20's.

Ahhhorsepoo
08-15-2008, 01:39 PM
ok i thought you meant mid 30's.. but anyways.. once his bat starts to slow.. there is NOTHING else that guy will offer a team..

BLEEDS
08-15-2008, 01:41 PM
yeah hold it for a few more years.. i.e. til he is 32 or 33.. and then he will be fading.. I also dont know too many(more than 1) hitters who drastically improve their power(without PED's) after their 8th or 9th year in the league..

he's 28 now, so that's 4-5 more seasons... then he MIGHT start to decline...

TONS of power guys last longer than that - KGJ, Big Hurt, Manny, Thome, Ortiz, etc, etc... - and LOTS of guys are 32/33 now and aren't losing any power - Vlad, Lee, Burrel, Berkman.

But, I guess since Dunn's batting average is so low, HE'LL be the one to be out of baseball by 33.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

Ahhhorsepoo
08-15-2008, 01:48 PM
BLEEDS go join the diamond backs board.. your love affair will surely help them.. they are starting to notice his laziness in the field.. and his "passiveness" at the plate.. and wonder why they got jobbed..

surely you might be welcomed there..

BLEEDS
08-15-2008, 01:52 PM
BLEEDS go join the diamond backs board.. your love affair will surely help them.. they are starting to notice his laziness in the field.. and his "passiveness" at the plate.. and wonder why they got jobbed..

surely you might be welcomed there..

Par for the course when you get your arguments refuted - throw a tantrum.

I didn't know they let 12 year olds into Engineering school?

PEACE

-BLEEDS

Ahhhorsepoo
08-15-2008, 01:53 PM
they do.. they're called gifted.. or prodigies..

the problem is also that you keep listing these players that all play defense.... or are soo good at the plate it actually does make up.. or they play DH.......

aerontg
08-15-2008, 03:08 PM
they do.. they're called gifted.. or prodigies..

the problem is also that you keep listing these players that all play defense.... or are soo good at the plate it actually does make up.. or they play DH.......

I'm in complete agreement. Dunn is so completely one-dimensional it's laughable that ANYONE would think the guy deserves the kind of money he was purported to wanting. Adam can't play defense, he can't move runners over into RISP, he doesn't have much speed, he strikes out WAY TOO MUCH to be of real benefit on an offense (when he was with the Reds) that needs players that make things happen.

Instead, what Adam provides is lots of homeruns, a low HR-RBI ratio, and a middling .240-.260 BAVG. The man will be DH'ing before long here, and on his way out of the game if he suffers any injuries that affect his power.

Layney
08-15-2008, 03:16 PM
Does anybody remember a comment Dunn made to the media before the season along the lines of not being happy that Arroyo was partying the night before he was supposed to pitch?
I believe he also said: "That won't be happening this season."

I wonder if that could be the reason for Arroyo saying what he did.

BLEEDS
08-15-2008, 03:25 PM
the problem is also that you keep listing these players that all play defense.... or are soo good at the plate it actually does make up.. or they play DH.......

That wasn't the topic, the topic was guys losing their power in their low-mid 30's.

Again, another brilliant strategic argument on your part, the old "YEAH-BUT..."...

PEACE

-BLEEDS