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larks
08-12-2008, 08:25 PM
http://www.azcentral.com/sports/diamondbacks/articles/2008/08/12/20080812spt-owings.html



DENVER - Right-hander Micah Owings is one of the players to be named later in the deal that brought Adam Dunn to the Diamondbacks on Monday.

It's unclear if Owings has yet to be placed on waivers. He will have to clear waivers if he is to be traded before the end of the season.

It's possible that Owings has been placed on waivers already and was claimed by another team, at which point the Diamondbacks would have pulled him back off waivers. That would mean he would not be able to be traded until the conclusion of the regular season.
It's also unclear is Owings' physical condition could be a factor in the deal. He is expected to miss his start Wednesday with shoulder stiffness.

Owings was inconsistent in his 1 seasons in the Diamondbacks rotation. He had a 4.30 ERA in 29 games (27 starts) last season, but was in jeopardy of being bumped from the rotation on several occasions. And after a strong start to this season, Owings has a 7.09 ERA since April 21.

But Owings is known as much, if not more, for his hitting. A former designated hitter in college, he has a career .313 average (35 for 112) with five home runs.

Minor league right-hander Dallas Buck also is part of the trade, but the identity of the third minor leaguer is not yet known.

redhawk61
08-12-2008, 08:31 PM
good to hear

Jack Burton
08-12-2008, 08:34 PM
He's a better hitter than Patterson.

steig
08-12-2008, 08:34 PM
Finally some offense for this team:jump:

improbus
08-12-2008, 08:35 PM
Sounds good.

I think the guy who has to update the Reds roster on reds.com should get a raise for the work he's had to do lately.

Grande Donkey
08-12-2008, 08:35 PM
He's a better hitter than Patterson.and Javy, A. Phillips, Dickerson, Janish, Bako, and right now Kepp.

larks
08-12-2008, 08:37 PM
Per CTrent


Tuesday, August 12, 2008, 08:11 PM EST [Reds]

I've heard that not only has Micah Owings not cleared waivers, but he was claimed by a team with a worse record than the Reds.

That would mean it could only be one of four teams -- the Mariners, Giants, Padres and, yes, the Washington Nationals.

You think ol' Leatherpants put one in just as a final middle finger to his old team before he's canned? Don't be surprised if he did.

What would happen then -- if it's Owings -- is that the Diamondbacks would have to pull him off of waivers and he wouldn't be able to come to Cincinnati until after the season. Not a major blow, butan annoyance nonetheless.


Sounds like we wont see Owings (Assuming the reports are correct) until he is hopefully pinning down the fifth spot in the rotation next spring.

757690
08-12-2008, 08:39 PM
too late. larks beat me to it. please delete thanks

LouisvilleCARDS
08-12-2008, 08:46 PM
Wow - and I was thinking just that when I read about that waiver rule yesterday. That JimBo would be a prick and claim him just so we wouldn't get him until after the year. And look - it looks like it happened.

larks
08-12-2008, 08:53 PM
I just need to find out that Whitesell is the third guy and I begin to feel a whole lot better about this trade.

LouisvilleCARDS
08-12-2008, 09:00 PM
On the DBacks board they're guessing Castillo, the catcher. What are his stats, considering we need a major upgrade there? If he's remotely decent, I hope its him.

Grande Donkey
08-12-2008, 09:02 PM
On the DBacks board they're guessing Castillo, the catcher. What are his stats, considering we need a major upgrade there? If he's remotely decent, I hope its him.
Remotely decent is pushing it in terms of his offensive abilities. No idea about his defense but I'd rather have Whitesell.

Stephenk29
08-12-2008, 09:04 PM
Owings appears to have some serious shoulder issues though?

larks
08-12-2008, 09:07 PM
Wilkin Castillo's Baseball Cube Page
http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/C/Wilkin-Castillo.shtml

Color me unimpressed. I've never really heard much about this guy. His minor league stats are underwhelming. I've heard more about Whitesell and his numbers at AAA look much better. Although I think Whitesell is a couple years older than Castillo.

LouisvilleCARDS
08-12-2008, 09:13 PM
It's funny going to the DBacks board and then coming here. Some of the people over there saying, "why are we giving up Owings for a 2 month rental strikeout machine?" with a ton of others also saying, "Owings sucks good riddance." Then over here people are saying "Why are we trading Dunn?" and others saying "he sucks." It's funny. It's the same exact sentiment on both sides. Basically, most fans completely overestimate the value of their main players on every team.

larks
08-12-2008, 09:16 PM
I've heard that Owings might be hurt as well. Even if its true I think its still well worth the risk. He showed last year he can be effective when healthy. I think the chances of him recovering from most injuries is greater than the chances of a compensatory pick reaching their potential. I guess the same can be said about Buck.

fewfirstchoice
08-12-2008, 09:22 PM
They may be saying hes hurt so they can sit him on the DL the rest of the season because Cincy ask them to. I mean if you traded for a player but he doesnt become your property until next year would you want him playing for another team risking injury,NO. I think it maybe something the Reds have ask the Dbacks to do in case he didnt pass waviers.

sammonator
08-12-2008, 09:28 PM
They may be saying hes hurt so they can sit him on the DL the rest of the season because Cincy ask them to. I mean if you traded for a player but he doesnt become your property until next year would you want him playing for another team risking injury,NO. I think it maybe something the Reds have ask the Dbacks to do in case he didnt pass waviers.

very good point!!!!!!!

FlyerFanatic
08-12-2008, 09:30 PM
They may be saying hes hurt so they can sit him on the DL the rest of the season because Cincy ask them to. I mean if you traded for a player but he doesnt become your property until next year would you want him playing for another team risking injury,NO. I think it maybe something the Reds have ask the Dbacks to do in case he didnt pass waviers.

that makes the most sense

redhawk61
08-12-2008, 09:30 PM
I've heard that Owings might be hurt as well. Even if its true I think its still well worth the risk. He showed last year he can be effective when healthy. I think the chances of him recovering from most injuries is greater than the chances of a compensatory pick reaching their potential. I guess the same can be said about Buck.
Agreed, He even started off pretty darn good this year
http://mlb.mlb.com/stats/individual_player_gamebygamelog.jsp?playerID=45224 9&statType=2
had two bad starts back to back in April and May, but other than that pitched very well. Then starting on May 30th it seems everything just fell apart, probably due to his sore shoulder. So the potential is there, lets hope the arm is healthy. But the great thing with him is if his arm is messed up you can put him at 1b/LF and acctually have a middle of the order bat potentially, unlike normal pitching prospects.

OSUredsFAN
08-12-2008, 09:32 PM
What about moving Owings from pitcher to say 1B and move Votto to LF. Just an idea

LouisvilleCARDS
08-12-2008, 09:34 PM
Just talked to a DBacks fan off their board, he thought Owings would still be worth a shot just as a position player because he's a good hitter as well if the pitching thing doesn't work out.

Grande Donkey
08-12-2008, 09:34 PM
Owings would be a better OFer than Votto IMO. He is a better athlete and has a better arm. I still think you have to give him a shot in the rotation though.

SoTxRedsFan
08-12-2008, 09:57 PM
I like this. If Owings can get back to the way he was throwing to start the season, he's a great option as our #4 starter. The trade is starting look much better. Owings is way more valuable than a sandwich pick.

LouisvilleCARDS
08-12-2008, 10:10 PM
On the minor league board, a guy who went to the same high school with top DBacks prospect Jarrod Parker says he's the other guy in the deal. Wow ... Parker and Owings would be big news.

redlegs2370
08-12-2008, 10:48 PM
Just talked to a DBacks fan off their board, he thought Owings would still be worth a shot just as a position player because he's a good hitter as well if the pitching thing doesn't work out.

Maybe Walt is thinking if he can't pitch he could be the Reds version of Ankiel!

Blue
08-12-2008, 11:04 PM
Tuesday, August 12, 2008, 08:11 PM EST [Reds]

I've heard that not only has Micah Owings not cleared waivers, but he was claimed by a team with a worse record than the Reds.

That would mean it could only be one of four teams -- the Mariners, Giants, Padres and, yes, the Washington Nationals.

You think ol' Leatherpants put one in just as a final middle finger to his old team before he's canned? Don't be surprised if he did.

What would happen then -- if it's Owings -- is that the Diamondbacks would have to pull him off of waivers and he wouldn't be able to come to Cincinnati until after the season. Not a major blow, butan annoyance nonetheless.

I think Trent is wrong here. The waiver order is set by order of finish last season. There were six teams with a worse record than the Reds last season. However, the waiver order is by league, so a player would have to clear the entire National League before an AL team could be awarded a claim. The NL teams with a worse record than the Reds last year were the Marlins, Pirates, and Giants. One of those teams is the culprit.

Unless I've misunderstood the rules or they've changed recently.

schmidty622
08-12-2008, 11:08 PM
With Owings this deal is looking pretty damn good.

Can't expect a lot for 1.5 months of Dunn but I am actually impressed.

NarrowStairs
08-12-2008, 11:12 PM
There is no way we get Owings AND Whitesell. Have you seen Whitesell's AAA #'s?

.330 with 22 HR.

I would rather just have Owings than have Owings AND this Castillo guy.
Castillo sucks and has no chance of ever sniffing a Major League dugout, so why even pay him a cent?

Oxilon
08-12-2008, 11:55 PM
There is no way we get Owings AND Whitesell. Have you seen Whitesell's AAA #'s?

.330 with 22 HR.

I would rather just have Owings than have Owings AND this Castillo guy.
Castillo sucks and has no chance of ever sniffing a Major League dugout, so why even pay him a cent?

Because Castillo would fill a roster spot, and no matter how much you wouldn't like it (it's not like it's your money), that player taking that roster spot needs to get paid.

I'd rather have Castillo than a guy like Robin Jennings, that's for sure.

redhawk61
08-12-2008, 11:59 PM
From McCoy's blog, and also coincides with what someone heard P-Doc say:

"One of the two other pitchers coming to the Cincinnati Reds is DEFINITELY Michah Owens.
A source very close to the situation confirmed to me today that Owings is one of the players to be identifield later from Arizona in the Adam Dunn trade."


http://www.daytondailynews.com/o/content/shared-gen/blogs/dayton/cincinnatireds/


so maybe the Parker rumors are true. Maybe with Byrnes, O-dog, and Upton down, the D-Backs realized how bad it had gotten with the offense and the fact that they won't be able to hang with the Dodgers w/o Dunn, so they got desperate.


Remember around the deadline it was said that Walt wanted 2-3 top of the line prospects for Dunn, if he didn't get that, then he was ok with the draft picks. Even though the Reds could only deal with the d-backs with the waviers, it still didn't change Walt's stance, there was no reason for it to. Kinda speaks volume when they all say that the deal came as a suprise. The Reds had all the chips in their corner on this one, and Walt could very well have coaxed the D-Backs into submission.

757690
08-13-2008, 12:18 AM
Parker is great prospect, but he is at least two and probably three to four years away from the majors. He is only 19 and this is his first year in pro ball. He also could jsut as easily end up like Homer Bailey as he could Brandon Webb.

I think the D-Backs understand that future is now, and might be willing to give up a big gun like Parker if they thought that Dunn could mean a Flag this year.

The only thing, is that I don't see them trading both Owing and Parker.

We'll see.

FlightRick
08-13-2008, 12:46 AM
Don't know if this is worth the bandwidth via which it's transmitted, but the horse's patoot what goes by the handle of Daugherty just let slip at the end of his radio show that the third player is, in fact, Castillo.

He said it with utter confidence, but mentioned it in an off-hand way that directly contradicts what appears to have been written by others. Specifically: he said he's known the 3 players since yesterday afternoon, but wasn't talking because he was sworn to secrecy. But, says Pee Doc, he heard that Hal McCoy had "betrayed the confidence" of their shared source, so he just blurted out that it's Owings and Castillo coming over along with Buck on the grounds that he wanted to share the scoop.

And yet: what appears in this latest DDN blurb seems to suggest the third player is a pitcher (and, as far as publication/betraying-a-confidence goes, an UNNAMED pitcher). Pee Doc: liar, blowhard, or possessor of secret knowledge.... YOU make the call!


Rick

Blue
08-13-2008, 12:51 AM
And yet: what appears in this latest DDN blurb seems to suggest the third player is a pitcher (and, as far as publication/betraying-a-confidence goes, an UNNAMED pitcher). Pee Doc: liar, blowhard, or possessor of secret knowledge.... YOU make the call!

He's definitely a blowhard, regardless of who the player is.

Ghosts of 1990
08-13-2008, 12:55 AM
wish max scherzer and not owings. Owings isn't better than anyone we have.

NarrowStairs
08-13-2008, 01:02 AM
wish max scherzer and not owings. Owings isn't better than anyone we have.

Owings is good. He's also only 25.

757690
08-13-2008, 01:05 AM
Don't know if this is worth the bandwidth via which it's transmitted, but the horse's patoot what goes by the handle of Daugherty just let slip at the end of his radio show that the third player is, in fact, Castillo.

He said it with utter confidence, but mentioned it in an off-hand way that directly contradicts what appears to have been written by others. Specifically: he said he's known the 3 players since yesterday afternoon, but wasn't talking because he was sworn to secrecy. But, says Pee Doc, he heard that Hal McCoy had "betrayed the confidence" of their shared source, so he just blurted out that it's Owings and Castillo coming over along with Buck on the grounds that he wanted to share the scoop.

And yet: what appears in this latest DDN blurb seems to suggest the third player is a pitcher (and, as far as publication/betraying-a-confidence goes, an UNNAMED pitcher). Pee Doc: liar, blowhard, or possessor of secret knowledge.... YOU make the call!


Rick

Thanks for the update.

Basically this means the three main sources out there, the enquirer, the DDN, and C. Trent, have all contradicted each other. I take that to mean that no one knows anything for sure.

However, if it is Castillo, that means that the Reds have filled two big holes for next year, Catcher and #5 starter.

Castillo can't hit a lick, but is considered one of the best defensive catchers in the minors. That fits Jocketty's MO, a solid defensive catcher who can be the captain of the infield, regardless of how he can hit. Pagnozzi, Matheny, Molina.

After Ross et al, Castillo will be a welcome relief to the hatchery that Reds fans have witnessed behind the plate these last few years.

Kingspoint
08-13-2008, 02:22 AM
With Owings this deal is looking pretty damn good.

Can't expect a lot for 1.5 months of Dunn but I am actually impressed.

We can expect a bit because whoever has Dunn at the end gets the two compensatory 1st Round picks.

Kingspoint
08-13-2008, 02:27 AM
The best scenario I could have hope for with Dunn was that we could trade him for pitching that could help the team sooner than pitching from two supplemental 1st Round picks. Take two College pitchers and it would take two or three years if all goes right. What we got was less potential but also less risk.

As good of a deal as one could possibly hope for. At least one pitcher that would help the team in 2009 and is still young, another that could help the team in 2011, and still waiting on whatever is next up. The organization has all the young hitting that it needs. The only spot left to fill is Catcher, and always.....more pitching....Don't expect anything from Arroyo next season. Owings takes his spot.

So, we have for next year....Harang, Volquez, Owings, Cueto, and Fogg and a host of others to fill in from there.

BurgervilleBuck
08-13-2008, 09:06 AM
Adam Dunn for Buck Owens? I love this trade!

CySeymour
08-13-2008, 09:30 AM
Adam Dunn for Buck Owens? I love this trade!

So is he a pickin' or a grinnin'?

schmidty622
08-13-2008, 09:47 AM
The best scenario I could have hope for with Dunn was that we could trade him for pitching that could help the team sooner than pitching from two supplemental 1st Round picks. Take two College pitchers and it would take two or three years if all goes right. What we got was less potential but also less risk.

As good of a deal as one could possibly hope for. At least one pitcher that would help the team in 2009 and is still young, another that could help the team in 2011, and still waiting on whatever is next up. The organization has all the young hitting that it needs. The only spot left to fill is Catcher, and always.....more pitching....Don't expect anything from Arroyo next season. Owings takes his spot.

So, we have for next year....Harang, Volquez, Owings, Cueto, and Fogg and a host of others to fill in from there.

And why are we to expect nothing from Arroyo? It's not like 32 year olds can't pitch in the Majors any more and he has been solid after the break. Sure I would love to replace him with say Derek Lowe but I don't think Arroyo is just going to fall off the face of the earth.

CarolinaRedleg
08-13-2008, 10:03 AM
CTR seconds the talk that Castillo is the third part of the trade....

http://www.thelotd.com/ctrent/blog/2008/08/13/thinking_out_loud_813

schmidty622
08-13-2008, 10:10 AM
Castillo is terrible at the plate.

Old NDN
08-13-2008, 10:27 AM
I've heard that Owings might be hurt as well. Even if its true I think its still well worth the risk. He showed last year he can be effective when healthy. I think the chances of him recovering from most injuries is greater than the chances of a compensatory pick reaching their potential. I guess the same can be said about Buck.

The Reds willing to take on sore-armed pichers in Owings and Buck? Wow. Apparently, they didn't learn their lesson with Majewski. I wonder if there is an agreement with the D'backs to replace them if they can't pass physicals? FWIW, I see it as a good deal IF they're healthy. Dunn wasn't coming back anyway.

Grande Donkey
08-13-2008, 10:27 AM
If it is Castillo, he better be Johnny Bench behind the plate because he can't hit for s...

Old NDN
08-13-2008, 10:29 AM
Castillo is terrible at the plate.

Yes. But, is there anyone in the Reds' pipeline any better?

Moosie52
08-13-2008, 10:29 AM
So is he a pickin' or a grinnin'?

More like moulderin'.

schmidty622
08-13-2008, 10:39 AM
No there is nobody in the system that is better and I think read that he plays good D. If he can be our version of Molina in St. Louis then whatever its all good.

krm1580
08-13-2008, 10:51 AM
If the trade is in fact Owings, Buck and Castillo put me down as wanting the draft picks instead.

Buck could be good but is somewhat of a wildcard in that he is in the low minors and is coming off TJ surgery.

Castillo is currently OPSing a Bakoesque .660 in the hitter friendly PCL.

Owings, I just don't get the excitment. He will turn 26 in September and is a flyball pitcher with middle to back of the rotation stuff.

What am I missing?

schmidty622
08-13-2008, 10:57 AM
If the trade is in fact Owings, Buck and Castillo put me down as wanting the draft picks instead.

Buck could be good but is somewhat of a wildcard in that he is in the low minors and is coming off TJ surgery.

Castillo is currently OPSing a Bakoesque .660 in the hitter friendly PCL.

Owings, I just don't get the excitment. He will turn 26 in September and is a flyball pitcher with middle to back of the rotation stuff.

What am I missing?

Who says the two draft picks would turn out to be any better than that?

Griffey012
08-13-2008, 10:57 AM
Looking at his stats I wouldn't say he his terrible at the plate. Not a lot of power but decent avg, not a lot of k's. If he is a stud defensively, we can't ask for much more. There are very few if any catchers that are studs defensively and at the plate.

redsbuckeye
08-13-2008, 11:10 AM
If the trade is in fact Owings, Buck and Castillo put me down as wanting the draft picks instead.

Buck could be good but is somewhat of a wildcard in that he is in the low minors and is coming off TJ surgery.

Castillo is currently OPSing a Bakoesque .660 in the hitter friendly PCL.

Owings, I just don't get the excitment. He will turn 26 in September and is a flyball pitcher with middle to back of the rotation stuff.

What am I missing?

Don't forget that Owings has some hitting ability, which is exactly what you want out of a pitcher. And Buck used to throw hard, so no doubt that'll come back. And Castillo's D should be good enough to make up for any lack in offensive production. Hey, we can bat Owings 8 and Castillo 9!

redsbuckeye
08-13-2008, 11:19 AM
Who says the two draft picks would turn out to be any better than that?

Who's to say they won't?

If these guys are going to be so so at best and 2 draft picks could be either be potential starters or end up being nothing, well I'll take my chances on the draft picks.

Owings could be good but I doubt he'll be anything better than a #5 starter. Buck is already broken as far as I'm concerned. And Castillo is a future Mendoza hitting catcher.

Hell, for all the raves Castillo gets for his D, I'd rather have a guy who can keep the ball in front of him and OBP .350.

TheBigLebowski
08-13-2008, 11:28 AM
Love the fact that we're getting Owings. Buck could be a nice pitcher in a year or two. Underwhelmed by Castillo but, if he plays rock-solid defense, I'll take it. Catcher is a defensive-oriented position. That's just how it is.

All in all, a Owings/Castillo/Buck return for 6 weeks of Adam Dunn, whom we weren't going to re-sign anyway, makes me very happy. Kudos, Walt. Well Dunn.

Va Red Fan
08-13-2008, 11:31 AM
If the trade is in fact Owings, Buck and Castillo put me down as wanting the draft picks instead.

Buck could be good but is somewhat of a wildcard in that he is in the low minors and is coming off TJ surgery.

Castillo is currently OPSing a Bakoesque .660 in the hitter friendly PCL.

Owings, I just don't get the excitment. He will turn 26 in September and is a flyball pitcher with middle to back of the rotation stuff.

What am I missing?


That we were not going to keep Dunn any way and the two draft picks are complete wildcards. This way, you lose a player you aren't planning to keep, get three guys who you see as having potential to help your team and you move in a positive direction. This is a great deal and I'm a Dunn fan.

I love Owings. I think he could be very good as a SP, but if not he may be a 1B or play LF. He's a baseball player who can throw in the low to mid-90's and provide good swings at the plate - sounds good to me.

Buck is a prospect who was at one time a high prospect. Its worth the effort.

Castillo may be the defensive catcher that we so desperately need. Catching is one of our weakest areas now.

schmidty622
08-13-2008, 11:32 AM
Who's to say they won't?

If these guys are going to be so so at best and 2 draft picks could be either be potential starters or end up being nothing, well I'll take my chances on the draft picks.

Owings could be good but I doubt he'll be anything better than a #5 starter. Buck is already broken as far as I'm concerned. And Castillo is a future Mendoza hitting catcher.

Hell, for all the raves Castillo gets for his D, I'd rather have a guy who can keep the ball in front of him and OBP .350.

I guess we'll have to disagree then. I'd much rather have the players that contribute now, if only a little, than the ones that we have to wait another 3-5 years for.

big boy
08-13-2008, 11:35 AM
Correct me if I'm wrong on this. The draft picks would have come only after Dunn was offered arbitration and turned it down for another team. There was the possibility that Dunn would have accepted and they would be stuck with him and received no picks.

Griffey012
08-13-2008, 11:36 AM
Who's to say they won't?

If these guys are going to be so so at best and 2 draft picks could be either be potential starters or end up being nothing, well I'll take my chances on the draft picks.

Owings could be good but I doubt he'll be anything better than a #5 starter. Buck is already broken as far as I'm concerned. And Castillo is a future Mendoza hitting catcher.

Hell, for all the raves Castillo gets for his D, I'd rather have a guy who can keep the ball in front of him and OBP .350.

His full season in single A he batter over .300, full season in AA batted over .300, this year in his first full season in AAA is batting .250, well below his .280 minor league average. Where does one season of hitting .250 translate into a .200 major league hitter? He also has some speed and athleticism with a few triples and steals. David Ross was a career .250 minor league hitter with a ton of K's, Castillo doesn't K. Every level Castillo has been at he has struggled and then improved.

To me Castillo seems to be a poor mans Jason Kendall type when Kendall was in his prime hitting .300, I could see Castillio being a .260-.275 hitter.

redsbuckeye
08-13-2008, 11:39 AM
I guess we'll have to disagree then. I'd much rather have the players that contribute now, if only a little, than the ones that we have to wait another 3-5 years for.

Well with the Dunn trade the plan seems to be to rebuild the team fully, so 3-5 years becomes the plan. Getting the guys that contribute now or next year does what? Who are their supporting cast? How can they win by rebuilding?

It's the same thing that's been going on now for the past 8 years of minor firesales and getting less talented but more ready guys. If you're going to rebuild, do it the right way and get those draft picks and those talented guys that you need to wait on. If you're winning now, keep the good players (ie Dunn), trade the prospects you have for other good players and win now.

This is some half assed, half-between attempt that almost seems like making moves for the sake of making moves. I'm sorry, I don't see Buck and Castillo as contributing much if anything to this team. Owings could, but I'd bet if he does it's nothing more than slightly better than average.

redsbuckeye
08-13-2008, 11:41 AM
Correct me if I'm wrong on this. The draft picks would have come only after Dunn was offered arbitration and turned it down for another team. There was the possibility that Dunn would have accepted and they would be stuck with him and received no picks.

Yes, thats correct, but then they'd also not be out anything, just another year of Dunn's contract that probably would have been the same as this past year (if that) and one more year to Dunn's age.

Dunn almost certainly wouldn't have accepted arbitration anyway.

redsbuckeye
08-13-2008, 12:02 PM
His full season in single A he batter over .300, full season in AA batted over .300, this year in his first full season in AAA is batting .250, well below his .280 minor league average. Where does one season of hitting .250 translate into a .200 major league hitter? He also has some speed and athleticism with a few triples and steals. David Ross was a career .250 minor league hitter with a ton of K's, Castillo doesn't K. Every level Castillo has been at he has struggled and then improved.

To me Castillo seems to be a poor mans Jason Kendall type when Kendall was in his prime hitting .300, I could see Castillio being a .260-.275 hitter.

That's my fault, I was looking at the wrong Castillo (one in the Cubs system).

Still, even using his best numbers from 2007 of .302/.333/.437 projects to ML equivalents of .270/.294/.400. That's a .694 OPS. That's still pretty bad.

He'd have to have some kind of extreme breakout to even get to average hitter status.

Griffey012
08-13-2008, 12:10 PM
That's my fault, I was looking at the wrong Castillo (one in the Cubs system).

Still, even using his best numbers from 2007 of .302/.333/.437 projects to ML equivalents of .270/.294/.400. That's a .694 OPS. That's still pretty bad.

He'd have to have some kind of extreme breakout to even get to average hitter status.

haha fair enough. All in all, with his tools such as having decent speed, being able to make contact and handle the bat I think he will be a solid hitter from the catcher position. He doesn't have home run pop, which it'll be nice to have a hitter without it. After watching Larue, Ross, Bako all not be able to put the bat on the ball often it will be a nice change, but nothing stellar. Hopefully he will be able to learn to draw a few more walks and bump the obp a bit. I'll take the average, but a .330 obp would be a lot more appealing.

redhawk61
08-13-2008, 12:14 PM
I wonder if Castillo is the guy, if so with the 47 hour window, baring no one else claimed him, even though leatherpants probably did again, we should be hearing about his acquisition any minute now.

redhawk61
08-13-2008, 12:17 PM
haha fair enough. All in all, with his tools such as having decent speed, being able to make contact and handle the bat I think he will be a solid hitter from the catcher position. He doesn't have home run pop, which it'll be nice to have a hitter without it. After watching Larue, Ross, Bako all not be able to put the bat on the ball often it will be a nice change, but nothing stellar. Hopefully he will be able to learn to draw a few more walks and bump the obp a bit. I'll take the average, but a .330 obp would be a lot more appealing.
yeah .330 OBP added to his good defensive status, rated best defensive catcher by BA in the D-backs organization coming into this year, would be plenty

redsbuckeye
08-13-2008, 12:25 PM
haha fair enough. All in all, with his tools such as having decent speed, being able to make contact and handle the bat I think he will be a solid hitter from the catcher position. He doesn't have home run pop, which it'll be nice to have a hitter without it. After watching Larue, Ross, Bako all not be able to put the bat on the ball often it will be a nice change, but nothing stellar. Hopefully he will be able to learn to draw a few more walks and bump the obp a bit. I'll take the average, but a .330 obp would be a lot more appealing.

He does have the ability to hit for some contact but that's it. Everything else he does offensively is iffy. If he could learn to take more walks, and I mean a lot more walks, then we might have someone who's OK. But that just doesn't happen at the AAA level. By then a player is pretty set in their mechanics and habits. Simply put, he's just not going to do it.

I'm looking at the PECOTA projections and it telling me he's essentially a career .260/.300/.375 hitter. Is that worth having a guy who D is supposedly good? I'd still take the better hitter with average defense.

redhawk61
08-13-2008, 12:30 PM
He does have the ability to hit for some contact but that's it. Everything else he does offensively is iffy. If he could learn to take more walks, and I mean a lot more walks, then we might have someone who's OK. But that just doesn't happen at the AAA level. By then a player is pretty set in their mechanics and habits. Simply put, he's just not going to do it.

I'm looking at the PECOTA projections and it telling me he's essentially a career .260/.300/.375 hitter. Is that worth having a guy who D is supposedly good? I'd still take the better hitter with average defense.
this team is going to be built around speed and defense, so yes

redsbuckeye
08-13-2008, 12:34 PM
this team is going to be built around speed and defense, so yes

If that's the case, then this team is going to be built for losing. Defense is nice but not at the expense of offense. Speed is overrated.

redhawk61
08-13-2008, 12:41 PM
If that's the case, then this team is going to be built for losing. Defense is nice but not at the expense of offense. Speed is overrated.
we will have plenty of offense

Bruce will be better
Votto will be better
EE has greatly improved his power
BP has been above average and, if dusty is smart, will move him out of the #4 hole which I believe will allow BP to be even better hitter.
Stubbs/Dickerson/Hairston (if he continues to play at the level) he has all put up good OBP's

Griffey012
08-13-2008, 12:43 PM
He does have the ability to hit for some contact but that's it. Everything else he does offensively is iffy. If he could learn to take more walks, and I mean a lot more walks, then we might have someone who's OK. But that just doesn't happen at the AAA level. By then a player is pretty set in their mechanics and habits. Simply put, he's just not going to do it.

I'm looking at the PECOTA projections and it telling me he's essentially a career .260/.300/.375 hitter. Is that worth having a guy who D is supposedly good? I'd still take the better hitter with average defense.


The problem is we are going to have a very hard time finding a better hitter unless Merasaco pans out. Good hitting catchers just don't come around very often, and many of the good hitting minor league catchers lose their hitting abilities after a few years in the majors or just don't develop them at the mlb level.

Rob387
08-13-2008, 12:43 PM
we will have plenty of offense

Bruce will be better
Votto will be better
EE has greatly improved his power
BP has been above average and, if dusty is smart, will move him out of the #4 hole which I believe will allow BP to be even better hitter.
Stubbs/Dickerson/Hairston if continues to play at the level he has all put up good OBP's

completely agree

757690
08-13-2008, 12:44 PM
What people need to realize is that the Reds would not get two first round draft picks if they kept Dunn and then he walked at the end of the year.
They would offer him arbitration and he would decline it if the rumors are true about his demand for a $100M contract, so they would get two picks, just not first rounders.

It is very complicated, but basically the Reds would receive the signing teams 1st round pick, unless that pick is in the top 15 of the first round. If it is, then they get the teams 2nd round pick. That is why the Brewers got the Reds 2nd round pick, not their 1st. Then the Reds would receive a supplemental pick between the 1st and 2nd round.

So the Reds would two picks somewhere between the 16th picks and the 75th pick in the draft, most likely two towards the middle of that.
Last year the Brewers got the 32 and 53 picks in the draft for losing Cordero to the Reds. That is about what the Reds would receive for Dunn.
The odds of one of a supplemental pick and a late 1st or 2nd round pick making the majors is less than 50%. The odds of both of them around 25%. The odds of one of them being a MLB contributor for more than 3 years, is less than 25% and the odds of both of them around 10%.

I think the odds of one of the three players the Reds get for Dunn to be a MLB contributor is 100% (Owings), the odds of at least two of them probably at least 75% (Owings and Castillo).

Owings will be in the rotation for years, unless his arm is just shot, in which case he will not pass a physical. This is very different from the Majewski case, since the Reds know that he is injured.

Castillo most likely will be the Reds starting catcher next year. He is projected to be like one of the Molina's. Not much bat, but enough to justify great defense, and the ability to be the captain of the infield and the handler of a pitching staff. Catching is perhaps the most defensive minded position on the diamond. If he is as good as scouts say he is, he should be the Reds catcher for years.

Buck, who knows, but regardless the first two themselves are better than two picks between 16 and 75.

I think it's a obvious choice.

bounty37h
08-13-2008, 12:50 PM
Who's to say they won't?

If these guys are going to be so so at best and 2 draft picks could be either be potential starters or end up being nothing, well I'll take my chances on the draft picks.

Owings could be good but I doubt he'll be anything better than a #5 starter. Buck is already broken as far as I'm concerned. And Castillo is a future Mendoza hitting catcher.

Hell, for all the raves Castillo gets for his D, I'd rather have a guy who can keep the ball in front of him and OBP .350.

Dont forget we would have to pay those ridiculous signing bonuses on those players then, if we can even sign them at all, in which case, than you lose them. We arent having luck from what I have seen or read signing this years draft pick, why add 2 more expenses like that?

757690
08-13-2008, 12:51 PM
If that's the case, then this team is going to be built for losing. Defense is nice but not at the expense of offense. Speed is overrated.

But defense is not. Look at who makes the Playoffs every year. All the teams are always in the top half of the league and mostly higher in defense.

This is especially true for catcher. Catcher is the most heavily defensive position on the diamond. Earl Weaver said that Rick Dempsey would be his catcher every day, even if he hit .000. That is how important he thought defense for a catcher is. And the O's won a World Series and many playoff games with Dempsey as catcher.

Strong defense helps your pitching staff, lowers their pitch count, makes them feel confident to let the hitter put the ball in play, and reduces the number of runners on base.

The Reds will never win without a better defense. I think it is clear Jocketty realizes this and this is the first move he making, to shore up the Reds defense for years to come.

redsbuckeye
08-13-2008, 12:55 PM
The problem is we are going to have a very hard time finding a better hitter unless Merasaco pans out. Good hitting catchers just don't come around very often, and many of the good hitting minor league catchers lose their hitting abilities after a few years in the majors or just don't develop them at the mlb level.

No you're right about that. Hitting catchers are hard to come by.

But the point is that Castillo has become, beyond reason, some sort of key player in this deal and people are statisfied with two question mark pitchers and a light hitting but supposedly good D catcher. If Castillo were an afterthough tack-on player, fine. But let's not pretend this guy is bringing any real value to the team. Light hitting catchers aren't hard to come by, the Reds have plenty of them. And the numbers I'm looking at right now say that Castillo is an average catcher defensively, maybe slightly above average. Why is this guy a key to a deal for a major player? The only good thing I see about the guy is that he isn't the other Castillo I was looking at earlier.

If WJ were looking for 2-3 solid prospects in return for Dunn, Castillo shouldn't have been one of them.

redsbuckeye
08-13-2008, 12:57 PM
Dont forget we would have to pay those ridiculous signing bonuses on those players then, if we can even sign them at all, in which case, than you lose them. We arent having luck from what I have seen or read signing this years draft pick, why add 2 more expenses like that?

You don't have to draft guys that expect monster signing bonuses. The A's have been drafting low expense guys for years and turning them into quality players.

redsbuckeye
08-13-2008, 01:10 PM
But defense is not. Look at who makes the Playoffs every year. All the teams are always in the top half of the league and mostly higher in defense.

This is especially true for catcher. Catcher is the most heavily defensive position on the diamond. Earl Weaver said that Rick Dempsey would be his catcher every day, even if he hit .000. That is how important he thought defense for a catcher is. And the O's won a World Series and many playoff games with Dempsey as catcher.

Strong defense helps your pitching staff, lowers their pitch count, makes them feel confident to let the hitter put the ball in play, and reduces the number of runners on base.

The Reds will never win without a better defense. I think it is clear Jocketty realizes this and this is the first move he making, to shore up the Reds defense for years to come.

I'm not saying the Reds couldn't improve their defense. I'm all for it. What I'm not for is sacrificing large amounts of offense for small improvements in defense. And at some point, your defense can only get so much better.

Defense is a different beast these days. The variance between teams on defense has shrunk a lot from the days of Rick Dempsey (btw, that O's team won the 1970 WS because they led the league in runs scored and allowed the fewest runs and the 1983 WS because they were second best in both).

Ahhhorsepoo
08-13-2008, 01:54 PM
soo question..

a ptbnl has to be processed in 60 days from the first player transaction.. which was august 11.. if the diamond backs go into the postseason and owings will be on their 40 man expanded roster, unless they shut him down now.. how would we get him if they were still playing postseason baseball on october 12th? just wondering.... not saynig i expect that.. but is there an extension they can get for ptbnl for playoffs..?!

schmidty622
08-13-2008, 02:02 PM
I think its actually 6 months not 60 days

Ahhhorsepoo
08-13-2008, 02:13 PM
it is 6 months.. you are right..

Az. Reds Fan
08-13-2008, 02:20 PM
According to this article in the East Valley Tribune, a source believes that the third PTBNL will be another pitcher...

Owings to be traded to Reds as part of Dunn deal
Comments 0| Recommend 0
Jack Magruder, Tribune
DENVER Micah Owings is one of the two remaining Diamondbacks to be traded to Cincinnati to complete the Adam Dunn deal, according to a major league source with knowledge of the details.

Johnson strikes out 7 as D-Backs beats Rockies

That means the trade is unlikely to be completed until after the regular season because of waiver rules.

It also means that Owings, scratched from a scheduled start with Triple-A Tucson today because of a sore right shoulder, will spend the final six weeks of the season in an organization that has no plans for him.

The D-Backs consider Max Scherzer ahead of Owings at this stage of their development, and are likely to recall Scherzer from Tucson for the stretch run.

Owings and the other player going to Cincinnati - also on the D-Backs' 40-man roster, a source said; also a pitcher, another source said - must clear waivers to finalize the trade, since it occurred after the July 31 nonwaiver period.
Waiver claims are awarded by inverse order of the standings.

Because of that, Owings and the other player must not be claimed by a team with a worse record than Cincinnati - Washington, Seattle, San Diego or San Francisco were below the Reds entering Tuesday's games - in order for the deal to be wrapped up in the 48-hour period that begins when each is put on waivers.

It is unclear if Owings has been placed on waivers.

When he is, it is unlikely he would get past Washington. The Nationals have long had interest in Owings, and assistant general manager Mike Rizzo drafted Owings in 2005.

Once the regular season ends, waivers are no longer required to make a trade.

Owings was 8-8 with a 4.30 ERA for the D-Backs last season, and he also won the NL Silver Slugger award.

He won his first four starts this season but went into a slump and was 6-9 with a 5.93 ERA when he was optioned to Tucson on July 29.

He has made two appearances for the Sidewinders, going 0-0 with a 4.09 ERA.

redhawk61
08-13-2008, 02:44 PM
so both McCoy and the EVT think it is a three pitcher deal

Griffey012
08-13-2008, 02:56 PM
Parker or Scherzer and I would be ecstatic

Az. Reds Fan
08-13-2008, 03:00 PM
Realistically, of the pitchers on the D'backs 40-man roster who are in play are...

RHR Emiliano Fruto
RHR Jailen Peguero
RHS Juan Gutierrez
RHS Esmerling Vasquez

That's assuming Max Scherzer is off limits. The guy with the highest upside would probably be Vasquez, but he is coming off some serious arm (shoulder?) issues suffered during last years AFL. In 2007, he was very highly rated in the D'backs system

Az. Reds Fan
08-13-2008, 03:03 PM
Parker or Scherzer and I would be ecstatic


Parker is not on the Dbacks 40 man roster. It's been reported that the 3rd PTBNL is currently on the 40 man roster.

I would be shocked if Scherzer is dealt.

redhawk61
08-13-2008, 03:06 PM
I'm going to go with Fruto,

Griffey012
08-13-2008, 03:07 PM
Parker is not on the Dbacks 40 man roster. It's been reported that the 3rd PTBNL is currently on the 40 man roster.

I would be shocked if Scherzer is dealt.

Oh yea, forgot about that semi important detail.

redsbuckeye
08-13-2008, 03:13 PM
Parker or Scherzer and I would be ecstatic

I'm not sure it's Parker because he's not on the 40 man roster and wouldn't need to pass through waivers. There could be something related because he's still in his first year technically, but I'm not sure if that's really a rule.

If it ends up being Parker, Buck, and Owings, then I'll be lukewarm on the trade.

If it's Scherzer instead of Parker, then I'll be quite impressed. Scherzer is very good. But I can't imagine the D'backs would trade a guy who's, for all intents and purposes, ready to go when their obvious strategy is "win now".

Oxilon
08-13-2008, 03:27 PM
If it ends up being Parker, Buck, and Owings, then I'll be lukewarm on the trade.

If it's Scherzer instead of Parker, then I'll be quite impressed. Scherzer is very good. But I can't imagine the D'backs would trade a guy who's, for all intents and purposes, ready to go when their obvious strategy is "win now".

Damn, tough crowd. If it's Parker, Owings, and Buck, Walt should be arrested for grand theft auto because that'd be a steal. If Walt landed Scherzer, Owings, and Buck, he should be locked up in a maximum security prison for robbing Fort Knox.

Honestly, in the end, it's going to be neither of them and getting Owings, Bucks, and PTBNL for a month and half of Dunn ain't too shabby in itself.

Az. Reds Fan
08-13-2008, 03:30 PM
I really think Parker and Scherzer are pipe dreams, it's not happening. I would get comfortable with the idea that it'll be one of Peguero, Fruto, Gutierrez or perhaps Vasquez. As a Reds fan, I would have rather seen Whitesell included rather than any of the pitchers I've mentioned.

From seeing a bit of Peguero with the Dbacks, he's purely middle relief fodder. Gutierrez has been getting his backside handed to him in Tucson, although he was fairly well thought of in the Astro organization. Fruto is just plain awful.

Vasquez is the most interesting guy. Excellent prospect in 2007, but hurt his shoulder, I believe it was his labrum, during the AFL. He chose rehab over surgery and currently at Tucson is struggling mightily with his control. If his shoulder responds and he can revert back to his 2007 form, he will be a very good pitcher.

So say the return for Dunn is Buck (TJ surgery), Owings (sore shoulder), and Vasquez (Labrum). That's a whole lot of potential with a whole lot of medical risk.

757690
08-13-2008, 03:41 PM
I really think Parker and Scherzer are pipe dreams, it's not happening. I would get comfortable with the idea that it'll be one of Peguero, Fruto, Gutierrez or perhaps Vasquez. As a Reds fan, I would have rather seen Whitesell included rather than any of the pitchers I've mentioned.

From seeing a bit of Peguero with the Dbacks, he's purely middle relief fodder. Gutierrez has been getting his backside handed to him in Tucson, although he was fairly well thought of in the Astro organization. Fruto is just plain awful.

Vasquez is the most interesting guy. Excellent prospect in 2007, but hurt his shoulder, I believe it was his labrum, during the AFL. He chose rehab over surgery and currently at Tucson is struggling mightily with his control. If his shoulder responds and he can revert back to his 2007 form, he will be a very good pitcher.

So say the return for Dunn is Buck (TJ surgery), Owings (sore shoulder), and Vasquez (Labrum). That's a whole lot of potential with a whole lot of medical risk.


Jocketty has a history of picking up young injured arms and waiting on them to heal. It's part of the Moneyball playbook. He's had some good success, Carpenter being the most obvious example. However, he did have Duncan to help them in Stl.

redsbuckeye
08-13-2008, 03:41 PM
Damn, tough crowd. If it's Parker, Owings, and Buck, Walt should be arrested for grand theft auto because that'd be a steal. If Walt landed Scherzer, Owings, and Buck, he should be locked up in a maximum security prison for robbing Fort Knox.

Honestly, in the end, it's going to be neither of them and getting Owings, Bucks, and PTBNL for a month and half of Dunn ain't too shabby in itself.

I am tough. Owings is a wildcard who I don't think will ever pan out as anything better than a #4 starter. Buck is broken. Parker would be the key to the deal who could eventually be a solid starter. That's an if though considering he was a high-school draftee and has a long way to go before a determination can even be made. So the Reds got a fluff guy (Owings) a broken arm (Buck) and a first rounder for Dunn. I would have preferred the picks they would have gotten for Dunn for letting him walk since they could then draft college players. But I think Parker and Owings are good enough that I'm not going to kick and whine too much about it.

Scherzer, on the other hand, well he's easily worth it. But like I said, I can't conceive of why the D'Backs would do that.

redsbuckeye
08-13-2008, 03:43 PM
Jocketty has a history of picking up young injured arms and waiting on them to heal. It's part of the Moneyball playbook. He's had some good success, Carpenter being the most obvious example. However, he did have Duncan to help them in Stl.

Erm, I don't remember that being in Moneyball anywhere.

Az. Reds Fan
08-13-2008, 03:48 PM
Jocketty has a history of picking up young injured arms and waiting on them to heal. It's part of the Moneyball playbook. He's had some good success, Carpenter being the most obvious example. However, he did have Duncan to help them in Stl.

Bottom line is it would be a high risk/high reward type return.

757690
08-13-2008, 03:51 PM
Erm, I don't remember that being in Moneyball anywhere.

Maybe not Moneyball, but part of the Beane playbook. The idea is to load up on other teams stalled projects who they might have given up on. For example, picking up Bailey now that he is cheap and still has a strong upside. Most won't pan out, but if you get enough of them, just one a year pans out and it's worth it.

Griffey012
08-13-2008, 04:00 PM
I am tough. Owings is a wildcard who I don't think will ever pan out as anything better than a #4 starter. Buck is broken. Parker would be the key to the deal who could eventually be a solid starter. That's an if though considering he was a high-school draftee and has a long way to go before a determination can even be made. So the Reds got a fluff guy (Owings) a broken arm (Buck) and a first rounder for Dunn. I would have preferred the picks they would have gotten for Dunn for letting him walk since they could then draft college players. But I think Parker and Owings are good enough that I'm not going to kick and whine too much about it.

Scherzer, on the other hand, well he's easily worth it. But like I said, I can't conceive of why the D'Backs would do that.

I wouldn't call Buck broken by any means. Basically it is just a way to buy low because he isnt fully recovered. The track record of TJ surgery recovery in this day and age is a pretty good track record. It's the shoulder injuries and surgeries that are the real problems.

redsbuckeye
08-13-2008, 04:10 PM
I wouldn't call Buck broken by any means. Basically it is just a way to buy low because he isnt fully recovered. The track record of TJ surgery recovery in this day and age is a pretty good track record. It's the shoulder injuries and surgeries that are the real problems.

I've seen no evidence to convince me that he'll ever be a good pitcher. He's 23 and in A ball. Injury or not, that doesn't bode well.

krm1580
08-13-2008, 04:14 PM
Bottom line is it would be a high risk/high reward type return.

Help me out I don't see the high risk or the high reward. Trading Dunn is not a risk at all because they were not going to resign him.

High reward = #4 starter?:confused:

redsbuckeye
08-13-2008, 04:16 PM
Maybe not Moneyball, but part of the Beane playbook. The idea is to load up on other teams stalled projects who they might have given up on. For example, picking up Bailey now that he is cheap and still has a strong upside. Most won't pan out, but if you get enough of them, just one a year pans out and it's worth it.

The Beane playbook is to use exhaustive statistial metrics to determine how much real value a player adds to a team and use that information to look for players who are undervalued by the market and use them while paying. Efficiency is the Beane playbook.

No where does he consider injury prone players. Other's stalled projects maybe, but only if they fit that undervalued, true value added efficiency mold. I can gaurantee you he'd have only passing interest in Homer Baily as he walks waaaaay too many guys.

mound_patrol
08-13-2008, 04:21 PM
I've seen no evidence to convince me that he'll ever be a good pitcher. He's 23 and in A ball. Injury or not, that doesn't bode well.

He would have been 21 or 22 when he was drafted from college, and then had TJ. So 23 and in A ball isn't bad at all. I'm not going to pass judgement on Buck until after 2 years of his surgery. That is when they say most are back to full health.

Griffey012
08-13-2008, 04:22 PM
I've seen no evidence to convince me that he'll ever be a good pitcher. He's 23 and in A ball. Injury or not, that doesn't bode well.

He also dominated in college, and pitched well in A ball with a torn ligament. Give him his 5-7 mph back and I think he will be impressive. If you lose that much velocity, regardless of the level, you have to know how to pitch. In a way the experience of pitching with the injury probably will just make him that much better of a pitcher in the long run.

And if we got Jarrod Parker, he isn't a first rounder...he is a high first rounder with a power arm. The first rounder we would have gotten would have been outside of 15 or supplemental. He is above any talent we would have gotten for 1 of the picks.

Az. Reds Fan
08-13-2008, 04:32 PM
Help me out I don't see the high risk or the high reward. Trading Dunn is not a risk at all because they were not going to resign him.

High reward = #4 starter?:confused:

High risk meaning Buck may never fully recover from his surgery, Owings shoulder issues may cause future problems and Vasquez (if he is the PTBNL) ends up needing surgery on his shoulder.

High reward meaning Buck may flourish now that he's had his TJ surgery and he's healthy for the first since before his days at OSU. Owings issues are not serious and he develops into a 3/4 starter, like he was in 2007 with the Dbacks. Vasquez successfully rehabs his shoulder, doesn't need surgery and returns to his 2007 form.

On a seperate note, I think alot of people are undervaluing Buck. The reason he is in A ball is he's rehabbing his elbow. If he was healthy he would be in AA ball, if not AAA right now. His stats last year, before they shut him down, were pretty impressive, and that was pitching with a ripped up elbow.

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/B/Dallas-Buck.shtml

I look for him to be a major surprise next year.

LexingtonLegend
08-13-2008, 04:44 PM
I know it won't happen, but I would really like to see Collin Cowgill be the 3rd player in this trade. He's several years away from being in the majors if he ever does make it, but being from Lexington, it would be nice to have one of our own back in this area. The guy was mashing the ball for them in Yakima, but looks to have approached normal now that he's in South Bend. Probably not the best talent we could get, but keeping your homegrown guys around makes it that much easier to root for the home team.

LouisvilleCARDS
08-13-2008, 04:58 PM
What people need to realize is that the Reds would not get two first round draft picks if they kept Dunn and then he walked at the end of the year.
They would offer him arbitration and he would decline it if the rumors are true about his demand for a $100M contract, so they would get two picks, just not first rounders.

It is very complicated, but basically the Reds would receive the signing teams 1st round pick, unless that pick is in the top 15 of the first round. If it is, then they get the teams 2nd round pick. That is why the Brewers got the Reds 2nd round pick, not their 1st. Then the Reds would receive a supplemental pick between the 1st and 2nd round.

So the Reds would two picks somewhere between the 16th picks and the 75th pick in the draft, most likely two towards the middle of that.
Last year the Brewers got the 32 and 53 picks in the draft for losing Cordero to the Reds. That is about what the Reds would receive for Dunn.
The odds of one of a supplemental pick and a late 1st or 2nd round pick making the majors is less than 50%. The odds of both of them around 25%. The odds of one of them being a MLB contributor for more than 3 years, is less than 25% and the odds of both of them around 10%.

I think the odds of one of the three players the Reds get for Dunn to be a MLB contributor is 100% (Owings), the odds of at least two of them probably at least 75% (Owings and Castillo).

Owings will be in the rotation for years, unless his arm is just shot, in which case he will not pass a physical. This is very different from the Majewski case, since the Reds know that he is injured.

Castillo most likely will be the Reds starting catcher next year. He is projected to be like one of the Molina's. Not much bat, but enough to justify great defense, and the ability to be the captain of the infield and the handler of a pitching staff. Catching is perhaps the most defensive minded position on the diamond. If he is as good as scouts say he is, he should be the Reds catcher for years.

Buck, who knows, but regardless the first two themselves are better than two picks between 16 and 75.

I think it's a obvious choice.


Great post. Also a key thing I read is if a team signs a same Type A type free agent first, then the team they sign it from gets the first pick first priority. So say if the Yankees went on a spending spreee with all their money opening up this year (like $70 mil), signed CC Sabathia, then signed Dunn - would get a LOW second round pick. The Brewers would get the first round pick. Say they signed CC and then Texiera, and then Dunn, then we would get a third round pick.

I can understand people being upset a franchise player is gone, but give me a break - he had 2 months on his contract left, and you're likely not going to get your PERCIEVED wanted return on the guy - either through trade, or the draft. Some people asking for a top D-Backs pitching prospect to make this thing even on a two month rental. I think its a little ridiculous. Getting three pitchers, who when healthy, have high potential would be a good return. It's risky, but if they recover, everyone will be saying what a great move it was.

redhawk61
08-13-2008, 06:43 PM
From Fay:

I got a new twist on Micah Owings thing: I'm told that injured players cannot be put on waivers. Owings was scratched from his start Wednesday with shoulder stiffness, according to reports in Arizona.
When asked if he'd like to have Owings now, Dusty Baker said "I don't think he's available now. He has some oblique problem or something."
Whether it's an oblique or a shoulder, Owings won't be put on waivers until he's healthy. He'll have to pass through waivers for the Reds to get him. If another club picks him, the Diamondbacks will pull him back and the Reds will get him at the end of the year.
I also talked to someone familiar with the Yonder Alonso negotiations. The word "stalemate" was used. Alonso is still asking for a big league deal. That's the case with several top players. The deadline is Friday.

757690
08-13-2008, 06:57 PM
The Beane playbook is to use exhaustive statistial metrics to determine how much real value a player adds to a team and use that information to look for players who are undervalued by the market and use them while paying. Efficiency is the Beane playbook.

No where does he consider injury prone players. Other's stalled projects maybe, but only if they fit that undervalued, true value added efficiency mold. I can gaurantee you he'd have only passing interest in Homer Baily as he walks waaaaay too many guys.

There is a lot to the Beane Playbook, not just stats. He doesn't consider injury prone players, just players coming off surgery. Big difference, since many minor leaguers these days are having surgery. They are usually cheap, since teams don't want to wait for them to recover. It's a good way to get talented players on the cheap, and that is what moneyball and Beaneball is all about. Most don't work out, but they are so cheap, you only need one a year to work out to be worth it.

Anyway, maybe it's not Moneyball or Beaneball, but it is Jocketty Ball, and it has worked great for him. I hope it works this time.

redsbuckeye
08-14-2008, 10:43 AM
There is a lot to the Beane Playbook, not just stats. He doesn't consider injury prone players, just players coming off surgery. Big difference, since many minor leaguers these days are having surgery. They are usually cheap, since teams don't want to wait for them to recover. It's a good way to get talented players on the cheap, and that is what moneyball and Beaneball is all about. Most don't work out, but they are so cheap, you only need one a year to work out to be worth it.

I think you need to re-read Moneyball, especially the chapter about the 2002 draft when he essentially kicked all the "traditional" scouts in the crotch and relied 99.9% upon stats to make all the picks.


Anyway, maybe it's not Moneyball or Beaneball, but it is Jocketty Ball, and it has worked great for him. I hope it works this time.

I won't decry Jocketty Ball just yet, but he had more money to work with in St. Louis. He also had arguably the 2nd best player in the league since 2001.

Winning with a Reds type payroll is going to take much more efficiency.

bounty37h
08-14-2008, 11:41 AM
You don't have to draft guys that expect monster signing bonuses. The A's have been drafting low expense guys for years and turning them into quality players.

Have you seen what our one first round pick is asking for-and we likely owont sign? If we got the 2 picks next year, wouldnt they be high round picks-likely to desire high bonuses? If not high picks, why not get high prospects anyway that are equal and still not have to pay the bonuses? Ideally it would be great if we could draft these guys that dont wnat the big bonuses, but we havent shown the greatest talent at drafting over the years tha tI trust that route any better then this one.

redsbuckeye
08-14-2008, 12:00 PM
Have you seen what our one first round pick is asking for-and we likely owont sign? If we got the 2 picks next year, wouldnt they be high round picks-likely to desire high bonuses? If not high picks, why not get high prospects anyway that are equal and still not have to pay the bonuses? Ideally it would be great if we could draft these guys that dont wnat the big bonuses, but we havent shown the greatest talent at drafting over the years tha tI trust that route any better then this one.

It doesn't work that way in baseball. In baseball your draft position doesn't dictate your signing bonus. Plenty of guys get drafted in the first round that don't get huge signing bonuses. That usually because they aren't expected to be huge impact players. But if you draft right, you get the guys aren't expected to be by usual scouts but who's numbers are reveal they really will be good.

It's the draft chapter in Moneyball.