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Degenerate39
08-12-2008, 10:54 PM
So right now it's probably going to look like:

The Rotation:
Harang
Volquez
Arroyo
Cueto
Owings

Let's hope Harang gets back to what he did the last two years. This team can't win if he's as awful as he was this year.

Volquez should have another good year. Probably about to same as this year but not as lights out as he was in the beginning of the year.

Arroyo. Who knows what Arroyo will do? I'd expect him to win at least 10 games next year IF he doesn't get traded before next year.

Cueto will probably get better with some experience. He could very well be the 3rd starter also. But I don't see them putting him ahead of Bronson in the rotation.

Owings was 8-8 last year. If he did that next year in the 5the spot for the Reds then he'll have a good season. But not having seen the guy pitch or anything this is purely speculation right now. But he'll be a better option next year than Bailey and probably Thompson/Maloney.

Harang- 15 wins? Assuming he is healthy by next season. If he has another bad outing his next time up then they need to shut him down until spring.

Volquez- 15 wins

Arroyo- 10 wins

Cueto- 10 wins

Owings- 8 wins?

The Bullpen

The bullpen can only get better with Roenicke, Pelland, and Herrera waiting for the call.

Cordero is a lock as a closer next year because of the contract. He NEEDS to be that shut out closer that he could be.

Burton is a lock as a setup man for next year. I'd like to see the Reds shut him down for the rest of the year.

Bray will be back. Maybe as LOOGY.

Lincoln should be back. He had a good year this year. He was a pleasant surprise this year.

Masset should be back.

Affeldt WON'T be back. And Weathers most likely won't be back next year. I'm assuming Majewski will be gone too.

So you look to the minors for three relief pitchers to take their places.

Roenicke, you would think, is a lock for one of these.

For the next 2 spots you have a Danny Ray, Tyler Pelland, and Carlos Fisher.

Danny Ray's slow stuff would look good with fireballers like Volquez, Cueto, Roenicke, and Cordero on the team. My guess is he'll have a spot.

They'll probably need another lefty in there so that means Pelland gets the last spot.

So the pitching staff should look like this:

Ace- Harang
2- Volquez
3- Arroyo
4- Cueto
5- Owings

Closer- Cordero
Setup Man- Burton
Roenicke
Pelland
Bray
Herrera
Lincoln
Long Relief- Masset

The pitching staff should be very good next year. But they have two major question marks with Harang and Arroyo. Owings is a question mark too but at the 5th spot he's not as major as Harang and Arroyo.

OnBaseMachine
08-13-2008, 01:29 AM
I'm pretty excited about the 2009 pitching staff. All the dreck from the current pitching staff will hopefully be gone (Majewski, Fogg, Weathers) and replaced with better options like Josh Roenicke, Micah Owings, and maybe a guy like Ramon Ramirez or Carlos Fisher or a free agent acquisition. I'm very confident Aaron Harang will return to being the real Aaron Harang next season. Bronson Arroyo is starting to turn things around and I believe he'll continue that. I don't think he'll ever get back to the 2006 Arroyo but I think he'll give us 200 innings of league average pitching next season, and that's perfectly find out of the #4 spot. Edinson Volquez has developed into an ACE and Cy Young contender and I believe he's still got room for improvement. Fellow Dominican Johnny Cueto may actually have better stuff than Volquez but he's younger and less experienced. I think he's got a chance to be a future No. 1/1a starter though he won't reach that ceiling next year. As for the fifth spot, I really like Micah Owings. His minor league numbers compare favorably with those of Aaron Harang, and he's got a big durable frame and solid stuff.

Edinson Volquez
Aaron Harang
Johnny Cueto
Bronson Arroyo
Micah Owings

I like that rotation. Of course I'd love to see Walt acquire another good starter but if not I'm still pleased with that rotation going into next season. As for the bullpen, Francisco Cordero, Jared Burton, and Josh Roenicke will give us three power arms from the right side. Mike Lincoln may be back as another right hander. I'd like to see a guy like Damaso Marte brought in as the primary lefty with Bray being the second lefty. Nick Masset may serve as the long man. All in all, I think it could be a very solid pitching staff depending on the defense. Improving the SS and catching defense could go along way toward helping the pitching staff.

WVRedsFan
08-13-2008, 01:42 AM
Predicting wins for starters is futile. The best I can hope for is 5 starters who cn get through 6 innings and allow 3 runs or less. Then give it to the bullpen to finish out the job and hope your team scores 4 runs or better.

Back in my youth , the W-L record meant something. In 1961, Jay won 21 games, Purkey won 16, O'Toole won 19, and so on and it meant something because these guys pitched almost the entire game. So, wins don't matter except to the individual pitcher and maybe to the agent at contract time. ERA and hits allowed are more important and to some strikeouts.

Truth is Owings is a question mark with a sore shoulder who may or may not be a factor in 2009. I'm sure Jocketty realizes this. He's taking a chance on Owings, but I imagine he's also looking at free agency to find another starter. Good for him. But Walt's main emphasis is to find offense from the CF position and the shortstop (not to mention left field where we lost so much offense just lately). As I said in another thread, you have to score to win and defend to support the pitching.

The_jbh
08-13-2008, 01:43 AM
I think that rotation is good and we have 3 of our top 10 prospect, Bailey, Thompson, and Maloney at AAA. Masset could also be converted to a starter. I think our rotation has potential to be great, and has more depth than we have had in recent memory.

I still believe we should go after Affeldt and bring him back.... I like a pen of

Closer: Cordero
Set Up: Burton and Bray/Affeldt
Middle Relief: Roenicke and Bray/Affeldt
Loogy: Herrera
Middle to long relief: Masset

There's our seven relievers Cordero, Burton, Bray, Affeldt, Roenicke, Herrera, and Masset

I think thats a pretty solid pitching staff all around especially if it get some real defense around it.

I think we will see drastic changes with position players this off-season, not with the pen.

Degenerate39
08-13-2008, 01:45 AM
I still believe we should go after Affeldt and bring him back....

Affleldt wants to be a starter.

The_jbh
08-13-2008, 01:48 AM
Affleldt wants to be a starter.

I have a feeling he is going to find that we arent the only team that realize his best role is relief...

I think we offer him arbitration and ultimately accepts or takes a 2 year extension...

If i am wrong I'll gladly take type B compensation in draft picks.

RedlegJake
08-13-2008, 09:04 AM
I have a feeling he is going to find that we arent the only team that realize his best role is relief...

I think we offer him arbitration and ultimately accepts or takes a 2 year extension...

If i am wrong I'll gladly take type B compensation in draft picks.

That's exactly how to handle Jeremy.

Kc61
08-13-2008, 10:05 AM
Ace- Harang
2- Volquez
3- Arroyo
4- Cueto
5- Owings

Closer- Cordero
Setup Man- Burton
Roenicke
Pelland
Bray
Herrera
Lincoln
Long Relief- Masset

The pitching staff should be very good next year. But they have two major question marks with Harang and Arroyo. Owings is a question mark too but at the 5th spot he's not as major as Harang and Arroyo.

I would be more aggressive in the off-season.

Harang
New Guy in Free Agency or Trade -- Serious Pitcher
Arroyo
Volquez
Cueto

I would keep Owings as a depth guy, long man, in the pen. I think the Reds need another major veteran starter. Lot of question marks here -- two young guys (how will they progress); Harang (will he snap back); Arroyo (which Arroyo will be around next year). So another proven guy is needed.
Bullpen:

Cordero
Burton
Roenicke
Lincoln
Owings -- Long relief, depth starter
New lefty late innings guy
Affeldt or lefty replacement for longer stints

I would probably use Bray in a trade and get a proven lefty reliever for the late innings. Or possibly try Pelland or Herrera. I would either re-sign Affeldt or get another lefty who can work multiple innings.

Finally, I would consider the possibility of Weathers for middle relief. I know, many around here dislike his pitching, but he continues to be successful. In a middle inning role I would consider him again.

Falls City Beer
08-13-2008, 10:06 AM
Two more starters. Two more starters. (Some real depth at AA and AAA).