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bgwilly31
08-13-2008, 01:19 PM
What moves do you think need to be made for 2009?

Heres the moves i think the reds should make.

Dickerson 4th outfielder, unless his play says otherwise.

Keep playing valetine at first. See what he can do down there. If he continues to bat the way he is. Leave him. If he dont trade him and put votto back at first and use dickerson in center bruce in right.

Play votto in rightfield.
Bruce in center
Studly free agent right handed power LEFT fielder.

Platoon kepp and Hairston at short. Whoever wins the spot wins. Trade the other for pitching.

Get a young studly up and coming catcher, trade bako or Ross.

And make sure we have a solid 5th starter.

If we do that i think we a much better shot next year.

Hondo
08-13-2008, 01:22 PM
Sell the team to Mark Cuban.

kpresidente
08-13-2008, 01:22 PM
I'd try and trade for Bedard.

Hondo
08-13-2008, 01:24 PM
What moves do you think need to be made for 2009?

Heres the moves i think the reds should make.

Dickerson 4th outfielder, unless his play says otherwise.

Keep playing valetine at first. See what he can do down there. If he continues to bat the way he is. Leave him. If he dont trade him and put votto back at first and use dickerson in center bruce in right.

Play votto in rightfield.
Bruce in center
Studly free agent right handed power LEFT fielder.

Platoon kepp and Hairston at short. Whoever wins the spot wins. Trade the other for pitching.

Get a young studly up and coming catcher, trade bako or Ross.

And make sure we have a solid 5th starter.

If we do that i think we a much better shot next year.

Who is the studly Free Agent Outfielder?

Rob387
08-13-2008, 01:27 PM
I don't think we should try and get Bedard. from everything i've heard here in Seattle if he doesn't change his delivery he will continue to get the hip injuries that have plagued him most of the season. If Micah Owings gets his act together he could be a good 5th starter and who knows how many bombs he could hit in GABP.

It would be nice to get some power in the lineup if there is any hope of making a playoff run next year..

redhawk61
08-13-2008, 01:28 PM
Dickerson/Stubbs battle for CF in ST
Votto to LF
Wilikin Castillo/Ryan Hanigan catching duo
FA 1b...Doug Mienchivich sp? good place holder till Fraizer/Alonso(if signs)arrives

Rob387
08-13-2008, 01:32 PM
I'm sure the price tag will be absurd with the yankees bidding but Mark Teixiera would be a great pickup if Votto can move to LF

Hondo
08-13-2008, 01:32 PM
I don't think we should try and get Bedard. from everything i've heard here in Seattle if he doesn't change his delivery he will continue to get the hip injuries that have plagued him most of the season. If Micah Owings gets his act together he could be a good 5th starter and who knows how many bombs he could hit in GABP.

It would be nice to get some power in the lineup if there is any hope of making a playoff run next year..

Power you say? They just traded the guy with 32 Homers...

Rob387
08-13-2008, 01:33 PM
Well aware of that and I was and still am a big supporter of the big guy.. but i think we all knew that trade was coming eventually so now it's time to find someone else

improbus
08-13-2008, 01:53 PM
If the Reds spend more than $4-5 million on a free agent hitter, they will be counteracting everything they've done at the deadline. We are not getting Tex, sorry. Why would he come here? Same with Sabathia. If you were a pitcher, why would you choose to play in Cincy? GABP is a terrible pitchers park and you have a terrible defense behind you.

The Reds problem isn't power, its that they don't have any real table setters. Find a decent young leadoff hitter who can stay healthy (unlike Hairston). Bruce, Votto, EE, and Phillips all hit for some power. Even without Dunn and Jr. this team will hit bombs.

schmidty622
08-13-2008, 01:56 PM
I tried to start this thread a few days ago but the Dunn trade happened when I posted it so it got ignored.

http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=70990

Here is the copy and paste plus one addition

We all know this is should be a big offseason for the Reds. Jocketty has money spend and roster spots to fill, so use this thread to tell us how you would go about turning the Reds around in 2009.

I'll start:

(These are assuming that Adam Dunn is let go as it would be cost prohibitive to do some of these with Dunn still on the team)

EDIT: Now that Dunn IS gone

1. Sign 2b Orlando Hudson or Rafael Furcal
Either would be a good pick up and probably come at a reasonable price because of their injury history. Furcal could easily bat leadoff and Hudson is a good top of the order bat who could probably bat leadoff if given the chance, as he sports a pretty solid OBP. Both play outstanding defense at their respective positions. If you sign Hudson, Phillips moves to SS.

2. Give Dickerson the center field job and keep him there
By all accounts Dickerson plays a great CF and has some amount of pop in his bat. While he does strike out too often, he could be an ok lead off guy because he gets on base or a good #7 hitter if Furcal were to take the leadoff spot. Sort of a Mike Cameron player.

3. Sign Derek Lowe
A veteran pitcher with strong groundball tendencies would help in GABP and give the Reds their best starting five in recent memory. (Assuming Harang rebounds and Cueto progresses)

4. Let Ryan Hanigan start at catcher
He doesn't really have anything left to prove in the minors as he as a .381 career minor league OBP and a .291 avg. He plays a solid catcher and unless the Reds make a play for a young catcher there are no better options out there in FA. Sign a cheap backup like Johnny Estrada.(Castillo as a defesive replacement)

5. Add Juan Rivera to play Left Field
He's a player who will come cheap because he never really got a shot with the Angels, however he has a career 800 ops. Only 30 years old he would definatly be a somewhat productive RH bat with the Reds.


I think that these moves would be good steps in moving the Reds away from the slug it out team that they are now to a more defensive minded and fundamental team without breaking the bank.

DeadRedinCT
08-13-2008, 02:02 PM
Schmidty for GM. :thumbup:

ED44
08-13-2008, 02:12 PM
I'd look at Pat Burrell and see what kind of contract he is demanding. He could be a RH power hitting LF to put in the middle of the lineup. Dusty may think he needs to hit 7th though.

I think Gonzalez comes back and plays SS. Kepp will resume his role of the utility IF (where he is best at).

I am guessing Hairston returns and platoons with Dickerson in CF (unless we get a speedy CF somewhere than can hit leadoff).

The free agent market is pretty thin this year and unless some trades are made, I don't see much coming from the FA market. Getting a Sabthia would be nice, but he is gonna get $20 mill a year and Sheets will be looking at a hefty salary too (and he just can't stay healthy enough to warrant it, imo).

I wouldn't mind making Texas a trade partner again. They are looking for pitching and the Reds may have a little bait to throw at them now with Owings coming aboard. Bailey for Teagarden or Salty may be an idea. We need to sure up the catcher position (if Castillo isn't the 3rd player in the Dunn deal).

redsbuckeye
08-13-2008, 02:24 PM
Hire Paul Depodesta.

schmidty622
08-13-2008, 02:28 PM
I'd look at Pat Burrell and see what kind of contract he is demanding. He could be a RH power hitting LF to put in the middle of the lineup. Dusty may think he needs to hit 7th though.

I think Gonzalez comes back and plays SS. Kepp will resume his role of the utility IF (where he is best at).

I am guessing Hairston returns and platoons with Dickerson in CF (unless we get a speedy CF somewhere than can hit leadoff).

The free agent market is pretty thin this year and unless some trades are made, I don't see much coming from the FA market. Getting a Sabthia would be nice, but he is gonna get $20 mill a year and Sheets will be looking at a hefty salary too (and he just can't stay healthy enough to warrant it, imo).

I wouldn't mind making Texas a trade partner again. They are looking for pitching and the Reds may have a little bait to throw at them now with Owings coming aboard. Bailey for Teagarden or Salty may be an idea. We need to sure up the catcher position (if Castillo isn't the 3rd player in the Dunn deal).

I had thought about adding a Burrell, Sheets, or Sabathia earlier in the year but after seeing this team for almost a whole season, its obvious that it has too many holes to put that much money into one player.

With what I proposed above a line up that would look like this would be pretty ok:

Dickerson CF
Hudson 2B
Bruce RF
Edwin 3B
Votto 1B
Phillips SS
Rivera LF
Hanigan C
Pitcher

OR

Furcal SS
Phillips 2b
Bruce RF
Edwin 3B
Votto 1B
Rivera LF
Dickerson CF
Hanigan C
Pitcher

I think with the young guys progressing that those could be some pretty good lineups.

joe51391
08-13-2008, 02:37 PM
Fire Dusty would be a good start
:beerme:

ED44
08-13-2008, 03:17 PM
I had thought about adding a Burrell, Sheets, or Sabathia earlier in the year but after seeing this team for almost a whole season, its obvious that it has too many holes to put that much money into one player.

With what I proposed above a line up that would look like this would be pretty ok:

Dickerson CF
Hudson 2B
Bruce RF
Edwin 3B
Votto 1B
Phillips SS
Rivera LF
Hanigan C
Pitcher

OR

Furcal SS
Phillips 2b
Bruce RF
Edwin 3B
Votto 1B
Rivera LF
Dickerson CF
Hanigan C
Pitcher

I think with the young guys progressing that those could be some pretty good lineups.

I'm with you. I like the direction of our rotation and wouldn't shell out the $$$ for Sabathia or Sheets. I wonder what kind of contract Burrell would demand though?

Ahhhorsepoo
08-13-2008, 03:19 PM
burrell should command a dunn-like contract.. probably 16-18 mil a year..

thorn
08-13-2008, 04:11 PM
I think it depends on what you want to do. Do you want to continue to rebuild or try and contend?

Rebuild.


1B Votto
2B Phillips
SS Gonzales (Has everyone forgot he's still under contract)
3B EE
C Hanigan/?? (Maybe resign Bako as a LH hitting platoon if Hanigan can't cut it full time)
LF Reviera (FA Signing, agree with Schmitty, he would come fairly cheap with a 1 or 2 year deal)
CF Dickerson
RF Bruce.

We will have time to let other OF's develope a half season plus use Freel/Harriston/Hopper as Backups. In NO WAY should Javy or Patterson be on this team. Maybe use Rosales, Janish and Kepp as bench guys. If Dorn, Stubbs, Frazier or whom ever plays there way into the lineup by July, trade Rivera and continue rebuilding. Valaika could play his way to 2B by mid-season then move Phillips to SS and move Gonzales. If you can't move Gonzales, let him go via waivers in August and put in Valaika.

If you want to contend, bring in the best SP you can find or afford, Upgrade your catching if possible (Low on the prioity list as Hanigan is a good defensive C, that should be the priorit for this position) still bring in Rivera for LF, find a good CF, cut Hariston as Dickerson will take his place on the bench.

Ahhhorsepoo
08-13-2008, 04:30 PM
when i threw out juan rivera everyone thought i was sooo stupid..

Stephenk29
08-13-2008, 04:52 PM
If Valentin is our opening day starter at first I may never watch another game.

levydl
08-13-2008, 05:30 PM
when i threw out juan rivera everyone thought i was sooo stupid..

To be fair, people think you're sooo stupid for a lot of other reasons too.

Ahhhorsepoo
08-13-2008, 05:31 PM
to be fair.. they are wrong on those fronts as well.. i might be opinionated, but i change my opinion when i realize i am wrong..

JWP
08-13-2008, 06:53 PM
Is anyone else for trying to sign Rocco Baldelli? He's a FA this offseason, and if he can stay healthy, he has superstar potential.

He could make a fine hitter near the top of the order.

ChatterRed
08-13-2008, 06:57 PM
Fire Dusty would be a good start
:beerme:


You beat me to it.

This young team needs a firy manager. Not a bonehead manager. I think the young guys have no confidence in Dusty or respect for him.

Blue
08-13-2008, 07:05 PM
The moves I would make for 2009:

1) Sell my season tickets, if I had them.
2) Find a more interesting hobby for a few months.

... but seriously folks...

I think the moves that need to be made are to numerous to list, and too numerous to be addressed in a single offseason.

I(heart)Freel
08-13-2008, 07:33 PM
1) Trade for Brian Roberts and sign him to an extension. Orioles will deal him (last year of deal coming up), and the Cubs want him. Let's swoop in. Would be a great lead off. Move Brandon to SS.

2) Go whole hog after D Lowe. Would be the best FA pitcher for GABP. Will take money. We have some.

3) If these two things can happen, we can live with an outfield of Dickerson/Bruce/Hairston/Freel, and Hannigan+cheap vet behind the dish.

Leadoff solved. Rotation more secure. Defense upgraded (assuming, as I do, that Brandon can play over-average shortstop).

With Masset, Burton, Cordero, Bray... we got the start of a decent 'pen. No world beaters. But I think a LOOGY and another vet arm can be had from free agency to round it out.

ChatterRed
08-13-2008, 07:43 PM
1) Trade for Brian Roberts and sign him to an extension. Orioles will deal him (last year of deal coming up), and the Cubs want him. Let's swoop in. Would be a great lead off. Move Brandon to SS.

Agree. Good move. Would increase speed on basebaths to fabricate more runs. Roberts hits in the .290 range and steals between 30-50 bases. Between he, Phillips and Hairston (if he stays healthy), the Reds could wreak havoc on the basepaths, and Phillips still has 20-25 HR power.



2) Go whole hog after D Lowe. Would be the best FA pitcher for GABP. Will take money. We have some.

Again. Agree wholeheartedly. I'm sick of using our minor leagues as the fill-in for the 4th and 5th starters. Plus, I'm worried about Harang.



3) If these two things can happen, we can live with an outfield of Dickerson/Bruce/Hairston/Freel, and Hannigan+cheap vet behind the dish.

Freel will be traded as soon as he proves he is healthy. More than likely next season. If not, he will only be a fill-in player, as usual. I think everything depends on whether or not the Reds actually make a play for one of the top power and average hitting free agents on the market or trade for someone. I don't think Hairston or Freel can stay healthy enough to be factors for this team. Not convinced about Dickerson yet. We shall see the rest of the season. We need one more player, IMO, to go with Bruce and Dickerson (if he proves himself).


Leadoff solved. Rotation more secure. Defense upgraded (assuming, as I do, that Brandon can play over-average shortstop).

This obviously leaves Keppinger out of the picture or back on the bench. Unless they move Votto to LF, and put Kepp on 1B.


With Masset, Burton, Cordero, Bray... we got the start of a decent 'pen. No world beaters. But I think a LOOGY and another vet arm can be had from free agency to round it out.

I'd trade Bray while his value is high. His career WHIP (including this season's WHIP) really concern me and make me think he is getting by right now.

SoTxRedsFan
08-13-2008, 09:22 PM
I'd rather build this team on defense and pitching. So to me, moving Votto to LF isn't a good idea. Keep him at first (where he isn't great, but is improving).

If Stubbs shows anything in AAA the last few months, give him a shot in ST to win the CF job. From all accounts he's a gold glove CF talent. Same with Dickerson at the ML level. Except he's probably a notch below Drew in the defense department.

Move Brandon to SS. At one point he was considered a superior defensive prospect at SS, and he's still got the quicks to make it work.

We have some projectible 2b prospects with Valaika, maybe frazier etc. Get one of them up sometime next year, but let Hariston or Kepp keep the position warm until one of them steps up.

Move Frazier to LF ASAP to see if he can play above average defense. If he can, he should be on the fast track to the big team. He's gonna hit in the bigs, we just need to find him a position. As a former SS I can see him having the athleticism to play a good LF (much better than Votto).

Hope and pray that EE gets his head straight and learns to throw to first.

I have no idea what to do about the mess at catcher. Maybe Hannigan shows us something.

C - ?
1b - Votto
2b - Hairston (Valiaka towards mid season)
SS - Phillips
3b - EdE
LF - ?
CF - Stubbs or Dickerson
RF - Bruce

LouisvilleCARDS
08-13-2008, 09:39 PM
How about trading Cordero to start? We finally look like we're cleaning up the dead weight salaries, then you look and see we're paying a guy almost ten million for a few innings a year, with only about a 75% success rate as closer, and has imploded several times.

fadetoblack2880
08-13-2008, 09:47 PM
If Valentin is our opening day starter at first I may never watch another game.

He's a free agent after the season, doubtful they bring him back. I hope so anyway.

SoTxRedsFan
08-13-2008, 11:36 PM
How about trading Cordero to start? We finally look like we're cleaning up the dead weight salaries, then you look and see we're paying a guy almost ten million for a few innings a year, with only about a 75% success rate as closer, and has imploded several times.

Are you saying we should turn Cordero into a starter, or Trading Cordero for a starter? Because either one of those options won't work. No one is gonna want to take on that terrible contract.

Jesus, I was so excited when we signed the guy. :thumbdown

highheat11
08-13-2008, 11:43 PM
Looking at the Reds’ roster, and judging by the players we still have control over, here is how I’d handle the offseason assuming we’re ready to put a winner on the field in 2009:

Free Agents

Let ‘Em Walk:
Corey Patterson
Josh Fogg

Must Re-sign:
Jeremy Affeldt

Possibly Re-sign:
David Weathers (Only if he’ll sign relatively cheap, and to be a leader of the bullpen)

Players Under Contract

I believe that the bullpen should be kept in tact for the most part simply because we’ve been striving for so long for a solid bullpen and we’re finally seeing signs of it.

Untouchables:
Johnny Cueto
Edinson Volquez
Edwin Encarnacion
Brandon Phillips
Jay Bruce
Jared Burton
Joey Votto

Offer Better Be Great:
Bronson Arroyo (Owed a lot of money but appears to be a leader/Bronson of old)
Bill Bray (Key part of the bullpen for years to come)
Aaron Harang (Better be solid major leaguer paired with a few prospects)
Mike Lincoln (Nasty hammer when he has it working)
Homer Bailey (I know he’s struggled but could still pan out)

Reasonable Returns:
Francisco Cordero (Nice to get rid of his salary and groom Burton to be closer)
Jerry Hariston Jr. (Get a return on him while his value is higher than in the past)
Jeff Keppinger (Phillips could eventually become SS for years to come)
Ryan Freel (Could go in “For Prospects” section as well)

For Prospects:
Gary Majewski
Paul Bako
Jolbert Cabrera
Andy Phillips
Matt Belisle
Todd Coffey
Norris Hopper
Javy Valentin

Undecided Upon: (simply because they haven’t had enough time to prove themselves)
Nick Masset
Ryan Hanigan
Adam Rosales
Chris Dickerson

Let me know if there’s anybody that I’m missing because I just kind of ran through the free agent list I’ve seen posted on here already to pick out players who were coming up on their free agent year along with players we still have control over.
Let me know what you think.

BLEEDS
08-14-2008, 10:50 AM
Well aware of that and I was and still am a big supporter of the big guy.. but i think we all knew that trade was coming eventually so now it's time to find someone else


So, who is that someone else? Theoretical just went out the door...

PEACE

-BLEEDS

BLEEDS
08-14-2008, 10:56 AM
when i threw out juan rivera everyone thought i was sooo stupid..

Well come on - why not, I mean the guy is putting up a line of .233 .286 .409playing just about every day... it's not like we dont' have enough sub .700 OPS guys in our OF right now...

Even Adam Dunn has a HIGHER BATTING AVERAGE?!?!

If you can come up with anything better than "Well, he hit 23 home runs once back when he started every day, in 2006" let us know...

PEACE

-BLEEDS

BLEEDS
08-14-2008, 11:36 AM
I'd start at SS and Catcher. I can live with lesser bats for much better Defense. CF depends upon IF we can get a LF with REAL pop.

At SS:
AGon was a good idea, just hasn't worked out long term.
BP won't be moved there unless we got a Hudson, but I don't see that happening, not with AGON on the hook for $5.375M.
Brian Roberts won't come in a trade, but nice idea.
Maybe Orlando Cabrera (FA).
We will probably end up with a Rosales or the like filling in/subbing with Keppinger and his horrible Defense until/if Agon returns.
I'd rather go for the better D and less O at SS - IFF Dusty doesn't pencil him in to bat 2nd even if he's Corey Patterson II.

At Catcher:
I'd go with Hanigan, or if we get the guy from the D-backs in a trade, and sign a Defensive oriented vet to back-up/mentor him. Unfortunately I don't see Dusty NOT clammoring for Bako to be that guy. Again, I can live with that.

In CF:
I could live with a lighter hitting (not CFP level) guy for GG caliber D - IFF we had power in BOTH corners. Bruce is penciled into Left for 10 years (hopefully, at least 6 until he hits FA anyway).
For LF, I would have kept Dunn, or IFF I knew we weren't going to keep him, I would have traded for Bay a LONG time ago before he got moved at the deadline. He could have been a cornerstone there for 7 years.
NOW, it's our biggest black hole so we have to look to Free Agency if we hope to fill that HUGE void.
Dunn is a Free Agent - however the likelihood of that is about .01%, or about the same chance that we'd get a Manny Ramirez.
Pat Burrell is a right handed version of Adam Dunn, except MUCH older. Not long before fans/media want him run out of town.
HOWEVER, I think this is a move that WJ might make - get him for 3-4 years (last year an option) at $15M+.
Sans that, we have to have a CF-er who can get on base above a .300 clip - preferably .350+. None of those are available in FA either. We're probably looking at Dickerson/Hairston/Freel platoon unfortunately. We'll have to hope it works out. IF we don't get a BIG BAT in LF, it won't.

And Lastly, we need MORE pitching. (DUH!)
I would get a top of the line SP.
I wanted us in the Zambrano sweepstakes
I would have traded for a Haren/Bedard/Harden/Blanton before the season started, no way would I have gone into this season with all 3 of those rookies, Josh Fogg and Affeldt. Yes, I would have traded Bailey or Cueto in a package to Oakland.
What a waste of a $45M closer to give him only ~30 save chances through August 15th.
Now, no TOR guy is going to come to Cincinnati unless we are the highest bidder. Our team is a wreck in last place and looking to go nowhere. BUT, we might try to make 2-3 OTHER Big moves and be able to THEN talk a SP into coming here. No pitcher in their right mind would want to play with this Defense and Offense behind them - without $25M per year over 8 years guaranteed otherwise. Derek Lowe MAY be the best option since he's older and might take a 2-3 year contract. All the other TOR guys will want 6+ years and $20M per, which I don't see us doing because IMO none of them are worth it.
Sans getting a TOR, I'd take a flier on a Randy Wolf type. Older vet you can count on to be a solid #4/#5. 2 (or 3 with team option/buyout) year contract.

I would give up some of our prospects, and spend big $$, to win in this window of opportunity we have with Harang/Arroyo/Cordero - and what should have been Dunn.

Contrary to unpopular belief, this team can easily support a $90-100M payroll, if we're winning, because Reds fans will come fill the stadium for a winner. We can compete if we did that. Instead we take one step forward, then take 2 steps back, almost constantly since 1995.

Currently, the payroll for next year is about $56M - assuming 1/2 of the 8 open positions (2 of 4 bullpen, 2 of 4 position players) are taken up by Rookies/League min vets.
That's $20M just to meet this year's payroll.
IMO we could easily add up to $20M more and still turn a profit/break even.
That's two $20M Free Agents and 2 min/vet/rookies or some combination between that.
It CAN be done. And, if Cast/Jocketty are here for more than window dressing, it WILL be done.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

Ahhhorsepoo
08-14-2008, 11:54 AM
Bleeds why do you think ANYONE will ever succeed then.. ohh they had a few good years up until now.. but we cant assume that will continue..

Juan Rivera is a SOLID EVERYDAY OF player.. 'nuff said..

ChatterRed
08-14-2008, 01:25 PM
Yikes. After reading this thread I realized that the chances of the Reds making any moves for next year are slim to none. Therefore this team will be mostly the same minus Griffey and Dunn, but worse.

Maybe I'll schedule a bunch of vacations next Summer so I won't have to watch.

Nasty_Boy
08-14-2008, 01:55 PM
Juan Rivera is not a solid everyday player, because he either can't stay healthy or produce enough to play everyday. Juan Rivera would be a disaster for the Reds, but I'm not worried about them signing him... Walt isn't that stupid.

In my opinion Walt will be as aggressive as possible in the free agent market and then he will start making trades. He will move prospects for proven ML players. This is a risky move especially since the Reds have decided that they can't afford to pay guys that produce. So trading the prospects could hurt the Reds in the long run, especially if the Reds won't pay to keep or acquire these "proven" players.

As for the players... I agree that SS and C should be the highest priority. Of course a leadoff hitter in CF would be nice. I don't think Walt will let Dickerson and Stubbs compete for the job in spring training. I think LF depends on the Votto, Frazier, Alonso triumvirate. Are they going to move Votto to LF? Will Alonso sign? How far off is Frazier? You could also throw in moving EE to 1st, Frazier at 3rd, and Votto in LF.

I could see the Reds making a run at D Lowe, don't know why he would sign here. Which of course is the Reds biggest problem with free agency. They have to overpay (Cordero) to convince players to sign here. The Reds aren't close to winning, the ballpark isn't conducive to pitchers, and most established hitters want to be in a lineup that will give them opportunities to put up numbers... it ain't happening with the Redlegs.

I would much rather the Reds test their prospects and not spend on fringe veterans. Save the money to put them over the top when Volquez, Cueto, Homer, Thompson, Bruce, Votto, Frazier, Burton, etc. mature into good ML caliber players. They need to get rid of fodder like Freel, Kepp, Gonzo, Bako... Set the goal at 2010 or 2011, it is not realistic to expect this team to compete next season. The defense may be improved and the pitching a little better, but the offense will be among the worst in the league.

BLEEDS
08-14-2008, 03:55 PM
Juan Rivera is not a solid everyday player, because he either can't stay healthy or produce enough to play everyday. Juan Rivera would be a disaster for the Reds, but I'm not worried about them signing him... Walt isn't that stupid.

In my opinion Walt will be as aggressive as possible in the free agent market and then he will start making trades. He will move prospects for proven ML players. This is a risky move especially since the Reds have decided that they can't afford to pay guys that produce. So trading the prospects could hurt the Reds in the long run, especially if the Reds won't pay to keep or acquire these "proven" players.

As for the players... I agree that SS and C should be the highest priority. Of course a leadoff hitter in CF would be nice. I don't think Walt will let Dickerson and Stubbs compete for the job in spring training. I think LF depends on the Votto, Frazier, Alonso triumvirate. Are they going to move Votto to LF? Will Alonso sign? How far off is Frazier? You could also throw in moving EE to 1st, Frazier at 3rd, and Votto in LF.

I could see the Reds making a run at D Lowe, don't know why he would sign here. Which of course is the Reds biggest problem with free agency. They have to overpay (Cordero) to convince players to sign here. The Reds aren't close to winning, the ballpark isn't conducive to pitchers, and most established hitters want to be in a lineup that will give them opportunities to put up numbers... it ain't happening with the Redlegs.

I would much rather the Reds test their prospects and not spend on fringe veterans. Save the money to put them over the top when Volquez, Cueto, Homer, Thompson, Bruce, Votto, Frazier, Burton, etc. mature into good ML caliber players. They need to get rid of fodder like Freel, Kepp, Gonzo, Bako... Set the goal at 2010 or 2011, it is not realistic to expect this team to compete next season. The defense may be improved and the pitching a little better, but the offense will be among the worst in the league.

Very nice post.

I'd tend to agree with you on most points, however I don't think they will stay solely with prospects over fringe vets, they tried that this year and we see what happens when you go with all prospects. Especially on offense, they have to get some PROVEN commodities. If they only get min. salary vets veterans - like Fogg and Hairstong - they aren't even going to have a $70M payroll next year. I expect, at a MINIMUM, that they will be at $80-85M. You can get two $10-$15M Free Agents with that to go with some prospects/league minimum guys.

They're going to HAVE to put something out in the OF to make the fans come to the ballpark other than Jay Bruce, otherwise we'll be looking at Florida Marlins type crowds, which won't turn a profit with a $50M payroll...

Castellini and Jocketty, IMO, would not allow guys like Griffey and Dunn to depart without some kind of plan to replace them and their production. They'd be sealing their fates with the fans if they did that.

IMO, that's what Castellini didn't like about WK - he wasn't willing to make the BIG moves to get us over the hump this year, especially after the Cordero move, he preferred the "slow and steady wins the race" and "let's go with more prospects and scrap heap players and hope to get lucky" card. Now we're blowing it up a bit, and we will RETOOL, not go solely with our prospects.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

bgwilly31
08-14-2008, 06:45 PM
With what I proposed above a line up that would look like this would be pretty ok:

Dickerson CF
Hudson 2B
Bruce RF
Edwin 3B
Votto 1B
Phillips SS
Rivera LF
Hanigan C
Pitcher

i think with the young guys progressing that those could be some pretty good lineups.

Why would you drop BP? ?



Looking at the Reds’ roster, and judging by the players we still have control over, here is how I’d handle the offseason assuming we’re ready to put a winner on the field in 2009:

Free Agents

Let ‘Em Walk:
Corey Patterson
Josh Fogg

Must Re-sign:
Jeremy Affeldt I ABSOLUTELY AGREE!

Possibly Re-sign:
David Weathers (Only if he’ll sign relatively cheap, and to be a leader of the bullpen) Agreed

Players Under Contract

I believe that the bullpen should be kept in tact for the most part simply because we’ve been striving for so long for a solid bullpen and we’re finally seeing signs of it.

Untouchables:
Johnny Cueto
Edinson Volquez
Edwin Encarnacion
Brandon Phillips
Jay Bruce
Jared Burton
Joey Votto

Offer Better Be Great:
Bronson Arroyo (Owed a lot of money but appears to be a leader/Bronson of old) Reasonable is more like it. I think great is far fetched
Bill Bray (Key part of the bullpen for years to come) Same as arroyo
Aaron Harang (Better be solid major leaguer paired with a few prospects)
Mike Lincoln (Nasty hammer when he has it working)
Homer Bailey (I know he’s struggled but could still pan out) Really far fetching now

Reasonable Returns:
Francisco Cordero (Nice to get rid of his salary and groom Burton to be closer)
If francisco were to be traded it would be worse than DUNN's trade. Worse prospects and more of his salary paid on our side.
Jerry Hariston Jr. (Get a return on him while his value is higher than in the past)
Jeff Keppinger (Phillips could eventually become SS for years to come) I dont want to see phillips at short. I dont think phillips wants to be at short either. I dont see it happening.
Ryan Freel (Could go in “For Prospects” section as well)

For Prospects:
Gary Majewski
Paul Bako
Jolbert Cabrera
Andy Phillips
Matt Belisle
Todd Coffey
Norris Hopper
Javy Valentin

Undecided Upon: (simply because they haven’t had enough time to prove themselves)
Nick Masset
Ryan Hanigan
Adam Rosales
Chris Dickerson

Let me know if there’s anybody that I’m missing because I just kind of ran through the free agent list I’ve seen posted on here already to pick out players who were coming up on their free agent year along with players we still have control over.
Let me know what you think.


Yikes. After reading this thread I realized that the chances of the Reds making any moves for next year are slim to none. Therefore this team will be mostly the same minus Griffey and Dunn, but worse.

Maybe I'll schedule a bunch of vacations next Summer so I won't have to watch.

I fear the same way.

Now for my predictions for what the REDS will do.

Trade away parts of our BULLPEN. Either that or let affeldt walk.

Trade hairston

Trade arroyo----Get little to nothing but HOPE in return. Basically a salary dump

Sign a couple of half ass cheaper guys to replace the dunns and pitching slots. -

---------------------------------------------

Oh and to add to the guys that are putting EE at the #4 spot confidently.

Guys EE is playing relatively well now. But this is how he always does. EE has had a very inconsistent game. Both defensively and most of all offensively. He also hardly ever bats 4th. Its a different approach when your in the 4 spot. I see him performing the same way he has in the past. Cold as Hell for 2 months, and hot as hell for 2 months.




Also i think having a LEADOFF guy that has at least some clue of how to be a leadoff guy. (like hairston) In the lineup is very Important to this Free swinging team. When hairston was leading off wasnt our record around 13-4 or something like that.

We need a good leadoff. This team has lacked that for quite sometime now.

Nasty_Boy
08-14-2008, 06:56 PM
You drop BP against RHP or you change his approach and make him a leadoff hitter. He is garbage against righties.

Bruce is still a year or two away from being a true threat in the middle of the order. You can pitch him out of the strikezone and he will get himself out (same with Phillips). He needs a good OBP man or two in front of him and a refined eye at the plate, and then he will be a stud. I don't see him being this guy for another 2-3 seasons. He would be a great 5-6-7 guy right now, if you bring in a power bat, i.e. a high OPS man. I just don't see it happening for another year or two.

Mitri
08-14-2008, 08:54 PM
-Stay young and athletic. Walt seems to be bringing in as much defense as possible, and I just love it. Look to dump Bailey and/or Stubbs if possible, keep and nurture the rest.

-Shop Phillips, Arroyo and even Cordero. Swap for young pitching, SS, C and maybe a power bat.

-Figure out what to do with Micah Owings. He's next-year's wild-card. If the injury is a real problem, put him in LF and let him rake. If it's workable, look to ease him into the rotation.

-Find another horse for the rotation to couple with Harang. Cueto and Volquez are still young, and this team needs another innings-eater for the next few years. Every team needs a few, this team has one, who happens to be having a terrible year.

-Rid the team of bullpen chaff and move forward. Majik, I'm looking at you.

FlyerFanatic
08-14-2008, 10:16 PM
i dont care what the reds do...as long as patterson is gone by next season, i'll be happy.

Boston Red
08-14-2008, 11:47 PM
How about Paul Byrd when he's done being a Red Sox rental. He's a local guy, so maybe he takes a hometown discount to finish up his career as a Red. Seems like he could be a solid back of the rotation starter for another year or two.

Sean_CaseyRules
08-15-2008, 02:45 AM
I say sign Pudge! He said he's not going to re-sign with the yanks.

redsbuckeye
08-15-2008, 09:19 AM
I say sign Pudge! He said he's not going to re-sign with the yanks.

Don't mind the idea, but he wouldn't be worth it for the money it'd take to sign him, his name is too big right now.

improbus
08-15-2008, 10:11 AM
You guy do realize that by signing these high priced vets, we would be giving up draft picks, right? We gave up a second rounder to the Brewers for Cordero on top of the huge contract. Let's not make the same mistake again please.

BLEEDS
08-15-2008, 11:25 AM
How about Paul Byrd when he's done being a Red Sox rental. He's a local guy, so maybe he takes a hometown discount to finish up his career as a Red. Seems like he could be a solid back of the rotation starter for another year or two.

Sounds like a good move!! Didn't know he was local. He fits my Randy Wolf mode - old vet to give us 1-2 years, can be signed to a 3 year contract with the 3rd being an option year with a buyout.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

bgwilly31
08-15-2008, 12:32 PM
For the BP haters here.

Who do you think we get thats better than phillips?

:)

FlyerFanatic
08-15-2008, 12:34 PM
For the BP haters here.

Who do you think we get thats better than phillips?

:)

anyone who's patient at the plate and doesnt swing for the fences every swing? :D

redsbuckeye
08-15-2008, 12:39 PM
For the BP haters here.

Who do you think we get thats better than phillips?

:)

Nothing, he's a well above average second baseman who's cost controlled for a while longer and will remain cheap probably even after that.

But he's not an offensive leader. He's hitting in the wrong spots.

Ahhhorsepoo
08-15-2008, 12:39 PM
Flyer what about adam dunn? he only swings once every 5 pitches it seems and when he does its for the river.. i cant find the stat listed, but i would almost promise you he also leads the league every year in strikeouts looking..
he is only a "decent" hitter in most minds because the bat is on his shoulder most of the time with no real inkling of swinging..

Nasty_Boy
08-15-2008, 12:47 PM
"He's a better player than people give him credit for," one scout said of Dunn. "People think he's just some lazy guy who can't do anything but hit the ball out of the park. He's better than that. He's a force. You have to make pitches on him. If you don't, he'll go long on you or he'll walk."


Give me guys that strike out looking on a full count over guys that ground out on the first pitch or strike out swing in on 3 pitches. Give me guys that take the close pitch, don't expand their zones and force pitchers to throw it where they can do something besides ground out to SS.

Dunn doesn't swing for the fence either. That would be BP... You know the guy that almost falls down trying to swing for HRs in the upperdeck?

And willy31... I'm not a BP hater. He's a top notch talent, but he has a ton of flaws. And unlike Dunn he doesn't have the strengths that lead to scoring runs. BP is gonna struggle big time if he's still hitting 4th without the protection from AD.

redsbuckeye
08-15-2008, 12:49 PM
Flyer what about adam dunn? he only swings once every 5 pitches it seems and when he does its for the river.. i cant find the stat listed, but i would almost promise you he also leads the league every year in strikeouts looking..
he is only a "decent" hitter in most minds because the bat is on his shoulder most of the time with no real inkling of swinging..

Outs are outs. We've talked about that and I linked the article and you didn't refute it.

Ahhhorsepoo
08-15-2008, 01:06 PM
I am only saying 200 strikeouts is far worse than a player who hits 200 balls that should be gotten to by fielders....

to tell me a sac fly isnt better than a k is absolutely stupid.. we have talked about this..

yeah but you also don't understand the fact that if he shortened his swing.. he would improve his BA.. and probably hit more homers and draw more walks as a more serious threat..

Nasty_Boy
08-15-2008, 01:20 PM
If you haven't noticed Dunn has cut down on his K's. And no, a K isn't better than a sac fly but Dunn lead the team in sac flies.

Here's a list of the terrible players that are the top 10 in the league in Ks

Ryan Howard 155
Mark Reynolds 151
Chris Young 125
Adam Dunn 124
Dan Uggla 124
Matt Kemp 121
Jeremy Hermida 116
Fred Lewis 106
Hanley Ramirez 105
Ryan Ludwick 104

That's some terrible players right there.

Ahhhorsepoo
08-15-2008, 01:23 PM
they aren't all terrible.. but for the money...

redsbuckeye
08-15-2008, 01:23 PM
I am only saying 200 strikeouts is far worse than a player who hits 200 balls that should be gotten to by fielders....

to tell me a sac fly isnt better than a k is absolutely stupid.. we have talked about this..

yeah but you also don't understand the fact that if he shortened his swing.. he would improve his BA.. and probably hit more homers and draw more walks as a more serious threat..

And I'm telling you and out is an out, whether it's a strikeout or a groundout. The correlation bears that out. Whatever advantage you gain by putting balls in play and getting errors is negated by the chance for double plays.

And I won't tell you a sac fly isn't better, that is stupid. But it's not part of the balls in play point. And I'd rather have any non-out than an out, period.

He might improve his batting average (and that's a big might, it's almost always bad to take a batter out of his comfort area and change his mechanics), but how on earth would his homers go up and his walks go up (walks aren't even related to swinging)?

Ahhhorsepoo
08-15-2008, 01:26 PM
you would agree that by shortening his swing he would hit more balls..
check..
you would agree that his homeruns arent in the first row.. soo hitting a few more balls a slight bit less would still produce more homeruns..
check..
you agree that homerun hitters get pitched around..
check..
hence the average goes up.. homers at least stay the same if not go up.. and the walks would presumably go up as well.. and the k's would go down..

Nasty_Boy
08-15-2008, 01:28 PM
they aren't all terrible.. but for the money...


What money?

The Reds could have a payroll of 100+ mil and still make money. Money is not the issue with the Reds that it was when Linder was the owner.

Ahhhorsepoo
08-15-2008, 01:30 PM
yeah i am saying all those players make less than dunn, and some are players(howard hanley ramirez...) that should make more than dunn..

but for what they make now.. an average to above average bat is sufficient..

your highest paid player on the team should be your best all around player..

and a guy who is near the top in offense but near the bottom in defense will always get eclipsed by a guy who is above average in offense and defense.. or at least they do when it comes to their real value..

redsbuckeye
08-15-2008, 01:36 PM
you would agree that by shortening his swing he would hit more balls..
check..
I agree it's a possibility, but not established that it definitively would happen.


you would agree that his homeruns arent in the first row.. soo hitting a few more balls a slight bit less would still produce more homeruns..
check..

No I disagree, changing swinging mechanics may result in fewer fly balls, more ground balls and less bat speed.


you agree that homerun hitters get pitched around..
check..
hence the average goes up.. homers at least stay the same if not go up.. and the walks would presumably go up as well.. and the k's would go down..

He's already a home run hitter, he's not going to get more or less pitched around, walks would then remain unchanged. And it's a dubious assertion that home run hitters are pitched around to any significant degree. Pitchers and situations actually dicate when a batter gets pitched around. Since I opine that his homers would go down anyway, the point is moot.

So average maybe goes up, homers go down, walks stay the same, Ks don't matter, only outs.

And don't put words in my mouth.

redsbuckeye
08-15-2008, 01:38 PM
and a guy who is near the top in offense but near the bottom in defense will always get eclipsed by a guy who is above average in offense and defense.. or at least they do when it comes to their real value..

BLEEDS has shown that this isn't the case.

Nasty_Boy
08-15-2008, 01:40 PM
Do you understand how free agency and arbitration work?

You don't get paid until you've been in the league for a while. Dunn is very comparable to Howard. Ramirez is a stud, and he'll get his.

And Dunn is not near the bottom on defense, and no successful offensive players are worth WAY more than guys that are average at both. Manny, Giambi, Ortiz, Howard, Bonds, Thome, Konerko, Cabrera, Fielder, etc.

And your highest paid player should be your teams most productive player, and on the Reds that was Adam Dunn.

kpresidente
08-15-2008, 01:42 PM
What money?

The Reds could have a payroll of 100+ mil and still make money. Money is not the issue with the Reds that it was when Linder was the owner.

Link?

From what I've gathered about Casellini, he's seems willing to spend money if available. I think if the Reds could have a $100 million payroll they would.

kpresidente
08-15-2008, 01:45 PM
Pitchers and situations actually dicate when a batter gets pitched around.

I don't think it's a coincidence that the #1 and #3 all-time home-run hitters are also #1 and #3 all-time in walks.

redsbuckeye
08-15-2008, 01:49 PM
I don't think it's a coincidence that the #1 and #3 all-time home-run hitters are also #1 and #3 all-time in walks.

Why just the #1 and #3? Why not do a correlation to homers and walks for all players? That's cherry picking.

I actually do think there'd be some correlation, probably not all that strong but still there. But my point was pitchers pitch around guys when they feel in trouble. Plenty of non-home run hitters also get pitched around, and plenty of home run hitters get pitched to by aggressive pitchers. It's more of a pitcher thing than a batter thing.

Nasty_Boy
08-15-2008, 01:49 PM
Link? They spend 46 mil on a closer, 3 mil on a bad CF'er, and 3.5 mil on a dumb manager. They have the money. They get 20+ mil in revenue sharing and they just signed new TV and Radio deals, and they were drawing more people this season. If they would invest into productive players, winning would happen and they would have even more money. I don't know Bob's finances but I do know that a team that signs TV and radio deals while getting money in revenue sharing, along with the amount of money fan attendence brings in, they should have the money to raise payroll to the 100mil level.

kpresidente
08-15-2008, 01:52 PM
Why just the #1 and #3? Why not do a correlation to homers and walks for all players? That's cherry picking.


Just laziness I assure you. I knew Bonds and Ruth off the top of my head.

kpresidente
08-15-2008, 01:54 PM
Link? They spend 46 mil on a closer, 3 mil on a bad CF'er, and 3.5 mil on a dumb manager. They have the money. They get 20+ mil in revenue sharing and they just signed new TV and Radio deals, and they were drawing more people this season. If they would invest into productive players, winning would happen and they would have even more money. I don't know Bob's finances but I do know that a team that signs TV and radio deals while getting money in revenue sharing, along with the amount of money fan attendence brings in, they should have the money to raise payroll to the 100mil level.

If that's true then you've just made me a lot more optimistic about next season. Maybe we can add a pitcher and a hitter, rather than having to choose, which has been my assumption.

redsbuckeye
08-15-2008, 02:00 PM
Just laziness I assure you. I knew Bonds and Ruth off the top of my head.

Well I think you're actually right but for the wrong reasons. Guys who walk alot naturally are more selective in their pitches and will only swing at the good ones to hit. If they have power, then the ones they hit will go for homers. Being selective essentially increases the % of homers and walks at the same time.

Surely some pitchers do pitch around home run hitters, though it's probably not a huge extent.

bgwilly31
08-15-2008, 05:35 PM
anyone who's patient at the plate and doesnt swing for the fences every swing? :D

At times. What about last year? Hate him them? What about defense.?


Nothing, he's a well above average second baseman who's cost controlled for a while longer and will remain cheap probably even after that.

But he's not an offensive leader. He's hitting in the wrong spots.

And this justifies wanting to trade him how?


Overall i cant imagine anyone with the WINNING NOW on their mind wanting to trade BP. Why you trade arguably the best second basemen in the league. Especially while he's cheap.

redsbuckeye
08-15-2008, 06:52 PM
And this justifies wanting to trade him how?


Overall i cant imagine anyone with the WINNING NOW on their mind wanting to trade BP. Why you trade arguably the best second basemen in the league. Especially while he's cheap.

Oh, well I'm not the one advocating trading the guy. I think I jumped in to that exchange without looking back, my bad.

But Phillips is 3rd or 4th right now in the NL, pretty behind Chase Utley and Dan Uggla. Mark Derosa also having a good year this year.

FlyerFanatic
08-15-2008, 06:54 PM
i dont really hate phillips...i hate how hard he swings...i mean dusty has everyone up there hacking away..but its so visibly bad with phillips. like someone mentioned he falls over swinging so hard.

kpresidente
08-16-2008, 10:49 AM
Here's what I'd do:

Trade Darryl Thompson, Danny Dorn and maybe another prospect to Seattle for Bedard.
Sign Brian Giles, Sean Casey and Hairston to 2-year contracts.
All the FAs walk except Hairston.

Here's the team...

1B - Casey
2B - Phillips | Keppinger
3B - Encarnacion
SS - Gonzalez | Hairston
CA - Hanigan | Tatum
LF - Votto | Freel
CF - Bruce | Dickerson
RF - Giles

SP - Volquez
SP - Bedard
SP - Harang
SP - Arroyo
SP - Cueto

CL - Cordero
SU - Burton
SU - Bray
MR - Roenicke
MR - Herrera
MR - Massett
MR - Lincoln

Here's the lineups...



VS. RH VS. LH
Giles Giles
Casey Casey
Bruce Phillips
Encarnacion Encarnacion
Votto Votto
Phillips Bruce
Hanigan Hanigan
Gonzalez Gonzalez
.

BLEEDS
08-16-2008, 12:46 PM
Here's what I'd do:

Trade Darryl Thompson, Danny Dorn and maybe another prospect to Seattle for Bedard.

I like the rest of your post, but if THAT was all it took to get Bedard, we would have him right now...


PEACE

-BLEEDS

Ghosts of 1990
08-16-2008, 01:49 PM
What moves do you think need to be made for 2009?

Heres the moves i think the reds should make.

Dickerson 4th outfielder, unless his play says otherwise.

Keep playing valetine at first. See what he can do down there. If he continues to bat the way he is. Leave him. If he dont trade him and put votto back at first and use dickerson in center bruce in right.

Play votto in rightfield.
Bruce in center
Studly free agent right handed power LEFT fielder.

Platoon kepp and Hairston at short. Whoever wins the spot wins. Trade the other for pitching.

Get a young studly up and coming catcher, trade bako or Ross.

And make sure we have a solid 5th starter.

If we do that i think we a much better shot next year.

Votto in RF? Valentin at 1B? a "studly" young catcher?

Oh bigwilly. Where do I begin?

kpresidente
08-16-2008, 06:06 PM
I like the rest of your post, but if THAT was all it took to get Bedard, we would have him right now...


PEACE

-BLEEDS

Seattle won't get nearly what they paid for Bedard. This time around, he only has one year left on his contract, plus there are injury concerns. Baltimore probably would have taken Cueto + Votto last year and I'm thinking Darryl Thompson is a top-50 prospect, close to what Cueto was last year. Dorn isn't Votto but he's not that far off, either.

That was my reasoning at least.

BLEEDS
08-16-2008, 07:04 PM
Seattle won't get nearly what they paid for Bedard. This time around, he only has one year left on his contract, plus there are injury concerns. Baltimore probably would have taken Cueto + Votto last year and I'm thinking Darryl Thompson is a top-50 prospect, close to what Cueto was last year. Dorn isn't Votto but he's not that far off, either.

That was my reasoning at least.

I hear ya. I doubt we'd do that however, I don't see WJ thinking that was worth a one year rental - unless he could get him to sign long-term.

I also think Seattle holds out for more. They'd rather have the picks than those two guys IMO.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

kpresidente
08-16-2008, 07:19 PM
I hear ya. I doubt we'd do that however, I don't see WJ thinking that was worth a one year rental - unless he could get him to sign long-term.

I also think Seattle holds out for more. They'd rather have the picks than those two guys IMO.


For me, the one-year rental is the draw. It means we're not tying up a lot of money long-term. We have good pitching in the minors, but they're not ready yet.

I also don't think Seattle can wait a year for Bedard to leave as a FA. He apparently wants out ...bad, and they really don't want him there much either. So I don't think they can use the picks as leverage.

That was one of the things about the trade last year. McPhail really didn't have to trade him. He didn't want out (although he didnt' exactly love it) and didn't carry a high salary. So they held out for the great deal and got it. But even that deal was just Jones and Sherrill, the others weren't great prospects.