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View Full Version : Stark/Baseball officials: "There's no way they would've offered Dunn arbitration"



Benihana
08-14-2008, 04:05 PM
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/story?columnist=stark_jayson&page=rumblings

• Dunn deal: Did Arizona give up too much (three players, presumably including Micah Owings) for Adam Dunn? The Reds based their asking price on the premise that Dunn will be a Type A free agent, so they needed to do better than two draft picks. But officials of two other teams say there's "no way" they would've offered Dunn arbitration. "There's a guy who, if you offer him arbitration, there's too good a chance he's going to take you up on it," one said.

Nevertheless, the Diamondbacks needed to add offense, especially left-handed-hitting offense. They're 13th in the league in hitting, and 11th in OPS, versus right-handers.

"He's a better player than people give him credit for," one scout said of Dunn. "People think he's just some lazy guy who can't do anything but hit the ball out of the park. He's better than that. He's a force. You have to make pitches on him. If you don't, he'll go long on you or he'll walk."

Ltlabner
08-14-2008, 04:08 PM
You have to make pitches on him. If you don't, he'll go long on you or he'll walk."

Eww

Walks are icky.

cincrazy
08-14-2008, 04:10 PM
Within that same article Stark calls out Dusty Baker for pretty much absolving himself of any blame in the construction of this team.

Seeing Red: We've heard some buzzing lately, among baseball men, scouts and players, about a recent Dusty Baker quote on the Reds' troubles that sure looked like an attempt to absolve himself of all blame.

"I have never wanted to win more than I do right here, and I will," Baker told the Dayton Daily News' Hal McCoy. "But this is Wayne Krivsky's team, not Walt Jocketty's and not mine. I just hope there is enough out there after the season that we can get to help us."


Maybe we're not reading that right. But if we're misinterpreting it, suffice it to say we're not the only ones. And it appears Baker is saying that the Reds' disappointing record is his players' fault, and his former GM's fault, but not his own or his current GM's doing.

Well, obviously, Jocketty is only now beginning to put his stamp on this roster. And the players haven't exactly overachieved. But doesn't the manager bear some responsibility for this mess, too?

Scouts who have followed the Reds continually talk about their messy execution, their mediocre defense and their distinct lack of energy. There also has been plenty of second-guessing of Baker's lineup choices (particularly those 242 at-bats Corey Patterson has gotten).

And there is no shortage of people wondering whether Aaron Harang's forearm injury -- along with his 1-6, 8.49 slide in the past 2 months -- might be a direct result of Baker's decision to allow him to throw 63 pitches in relief on two days' rest in a May 25 18-inning game, then start him on three days' rest immediately afterward.

Dusty Baker has many admirable traits. And this is not an attempt to heap all the blame on him. We're just saying that when teams like this fall apart, it's everybody's fault -- including the manager's.

Razor Shines
08-14-2008, 04:10 PM
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/story?columnist=stark_jayson&page=rumblings

• Dunn deal: Did Arizona give up too much (three players, presumably including Micah Owings) for Adam Dunn? The Reds based their asking price on the premise that Dunn will be a Type A free agent, so they needed to do better than two draft picks. But officials of two other teams say there's "no way" they would've offered Dunn arbitration. "There's a guy who, [B]if you offer him arbitration, there's too good a chance he's going to take you up on it," one said.

And that would be bad for the Reds how, exactly?

RedlegJake
08-14-2008, 04:11 PM
Unnamed officials of other teams are lousy sources. Talk about conflicted. The scout they talked to must be the one Daughtery didn't.

RedsManRick
08-14-2008, 04:11 PM
It's absolutely shocking to me how ignorant some people in major league front offices are. I'm guessing those two officials aren't from teams who put regular winners on the field.

BuckeyeRedleg
08-14-2008, 04:15 PM
Why on earth would Adam Dunn be stupid enough to take arbitration?

BuckeyeRedleg
08-14-2008, 04:16 PM
I wonder if the Brewers are afraid C.C. Sabathia will accept arbitration as well?

LOL.

Raisor
08-14-2008, 04:17 PM
Why on earth would Adam Dunn be stupid enough to take arbitration?

Ask Greg Maddux

Nugget
08-14-2008, 04:18 PM
That's not the point of the article. The article is discussing whether or not Arizona overpaid. If the REDS were asking for something better than two top draft picks - the premise of the article was that if this was what the REDS were asking for should they have got it. Its a bad premise for the article in that it is valuing the trade of draft picks rather than the player traded.

RedsBaron
08-14-2008, 04:20 PM
Scouts who have followed the Reds continually talk about their messy execution, their mediocre defense and their distinct lack of energy. There also has been plenty of second-guessing of Baker's lineup choices (particularly those 242 at-bats Corey Patterson has gotten).

And there is no shortage of people wondering whether Aaron Harang's forearm injury -- along with his 1-6, 8.49 slide in the past 2 months -- might be a direct result of Baker's decision to allow him to throw 63 pitches in relief on two days' rest in a May 25 18-inning game, then start him on three days' rest immediately afterward.

Dusty Baker has many admirable traits. And this is not an attempt to heap all the blame on him. We're just saying that when teams like this fall apart, it's everybody's fault -- including the manager's.

No argument with the above.

KronoRed
08-14-2008, 04:29 PM
Of course they would have offered him arbitration, only idiotic teams would be so scared of spending cash on *gasp* a good player.

Wonder who those unnamed sources work for? might it be..Washington ;)

lollipopcurve
08-14-2008, 04:29 PM
And it appears Baker is saying that the Reds' disappointing record is his players' fault, and his former GM's fault, but not his own or his current GM's doing.

I'm glad Stark brings this up. I'm sure this was covered in other threads, but since I wasn't around/online around the time this happened, I'll take this opportunity to say I can't believe Baker would pull this kind of BS. Very, very disappointing, and he drops several more notches in my estimation. He's the onfield leader, yet he goes and throws seemingly the whole squad under the bus while taking zero responsibility for the team's poor performance. I supported this guy strongly at the outset, and I've never really bashed any Reds manager, but I gotta say I hope the powers that be are looking at the manager position as one that could be upgraded.

flyer85
08-14-2008, 04:31 PM
water under the bridge at this point.

Wheelhouse
08-14-2008, 04:35 PM
Why on earth would Adam Dunn be stupid enough to take arbitration?

Because he could make more (possibly) than as a FA. Many GMs are sour on him.

Johnny Footstool
08-14-2008, 04:37 PM
Stark, in pursuit of a "story," probably asked J.P. Ricciardi.

edabbs44
08-14-2008, 04:39 PM
And that would be bad for the Reds how, exactly?

Because Cincy doesn't want him around at the price he costs.

Ltlabner
08-14-2008, 04:41 PM
Dusty would try to pass off blame for a poor season to someone else? Gasp!

RedsManRick
08-14-2008, 04:41 PM
I'm glad Stark brings this up. I'm sure this was covered in other threads, but since I wasn't around/online around the time this happened, I'll take this opportunity to say I can't believe Baker would pull this kind of BS. Very, very disappointing, and he drops several more notches in my estimation. He's the onfield leader, yet he goes and throws seemingly the whole squad under the bus while taking zero responsibility for the team's poor performance. I supported this guy strongly at the outset, and I've never really bashed any Reds manager, but I gotta say I hope the powers that be are looking at the manager position as one that could be upgraded.

This is EXACTLY what led to the end in Chicago. He was allergic to accepting responsibility for his role in the meltdown. It was Lee's fault for getting hurt. It was Sosa's fault for losing bat speed and developing a temper. It was Prior and Wood's fault for their problems. And it was Hendry's fault for not fixing it. His act got old and he was run out of town. Yes, that's a gross simplification, but this is one of the primary Dusty issues pointed out when he was hired. He's not a guy to help guide the franchise through rough times.

red-in-la
08-14-2008, 04:45 PM
Whoever.......but just remember that whoever is in control, or whoever's stamp wwe are talking about.....this organization DFA'ed David Ross but Corey Patterson still starts most every day.

Judgement?

BuckeyeRedleg
08-14-2008, 05:01 PM
Because he could make more (possibly) than as a FA. Many GMs are sour on him.

How so?

3-5 years is greater than 1 year. Adam Dunn is in his prime. What could he possibly gain in signing for one year and then doing 2008 all over again?

Plus, I'm not sold that GM's have soured on him. They didn't sour on Carlos Lee. Besides, all it takes is one GM.

princeton
08-14-2008, 05:07 PM
I'm not sold that GM's have soured on him. They didn't sour on Carlos Lee.

Carlos Lee is a much better player than Dunn.

redsmetz
08-14-2008, 05:13 PM
Because he could make more (possibly) than as a FA. Many GMs are sour on him.

I think it's more accurate to say some GM's are sour on him, not many. I think there are a number of teams (and I think we calculated about a third of them in another discussion before the trade) who might have an interest in Dunn.

Yes, it's possible he may have accepted arbitration, but I still believe there will be a market out there for Adam Dunn.

BuckeyeRedleg
08-14-2008, 05:16 PM
Carlos Lee is a much better player than Dunn.

In what category? Batting average?

gm
08-14-2008, 05:19 PM
Carlos Lee is a much better player than Dunn.

I agree. Ducks on the pond? CL drives 'em in. TPerez with more pop

Falls City Beer
08-14-2008, 05:23 PM
Carlos Lee is a much better player than Dunn.

Nonsense.

Reds1
08-14-2008, 05:30 PM
As far as why would he take Arb. He probably would get 15-16 milion minimum. I think he wanted a long term deal so I would expect him to go free agent, but if he liked the reds, teamates, etc. he might have said lets give it one more year, but I bet he would have asked around 1st to see what the market is like before he accepted. It's all a mute point now. I'd say we probably did ok on the the trade. If you get better then two draft picks your ok and heck, the money the 1st round picks want these days at least you know more of what you got in the traded players.

deltachi8
08-14-2008, 05:33 PM
Because he could make more (possibly) than as a FA. Many GMs are sour on him.

Define "many"...is more than the one north of the border?

RedsManRick
08-14-2008, 05:34 PM
I agree. Ducks on the pond? CL drives 'em in. TPerez with more pop

And Lee has a career .344 OBP. I know it's not the be-all, end-all of stats, but Dunn has 50 points of OPS on Lee. That's a not insignificant difference. I can see arguments suggesting they're comparable, but suggesting Lee is "much better" is a real big stretch. It's not like Lee is a great defender or a terror on the basepaths.

princeton
08-14-2008, 05:35 PM
I agree. Ducks on the pond? CL drives 'em in.

yup, pitchers don't like seeing Lee come up with men on base and game on line. They wish that he were a guy like Adam Dunn instead.

BuckeyeRedleg
08-14-2008, 05:42 PM
I think Lee and Dunn are similar, but 2006 was the year that Lee signed his big contract and he was older than Dunn, just as bad on defense as Dunn, and his offensive production at that point in his career wasn't where it is today.

We can argue all day if Lee is "much better" than Dunn TODAY (even though he isn't), but the point is where Lee was after 2006 (before he signed the longterm deal with Houston).

BuckeyeRedleg
08-14-2008, 05:53 PM
Oh well, for the heck of it.

Carlos Lee (career)
Runners on---2569 AB (.856 OPS)
RISP----1205 AB (.896 OPS)
RISP 2 out---753 AB (.888 OPS)
Bases loaded---244 AB (.903 OPS)

Adam Dunn (career)
Runners on---1013 AB (.915 OPS)
RISP----1205 AB (.888 OPS)
RISP 2 out---753 AB (.881 OPS)
Bases loaded---244 AB (1.010 OPS)

And that's after two years of Lee producing big time. I'm sure his numbers were lower across the board through 2006 (before he signed the biggie).

traderumor
08-14-2008, 05:55 PM
Maybe we're not reading that right. But if we're misinterpreting it, suffice it to say we're not the only ones. And it appears Baker is saying that the Reds' disappointing record is his players' fault, and his former GM's fault, but not his own or his current GM's doing.


Dusty Baker has many admirable traits. And this is not an attempt to heap all the blame on him. We're just saying that when teams like this fall apart, it's everybody's fault -- including the manager's.Maybe he's heard or read on RZ as many times as I have how the manager doesn't really matter in the grand scheme of things. That is a two-sided coin if one desires to be consistent--a trait of rational people, I might add.

BuckeyeRedleg
08-14-2008, 06:04 PM
Carlos Lee (age 27, 2003)
31HR
113 RBI
114 OPS+

Adam Dunn (age 27, 2007)
40 HR
106 RBI
136 OPS+

--------------------------------------------------

Carlos Lee (age 28, 2004)
31 HR
99 RBI
127 OPS+

Adam Dunn (age 28, 2008)
32 HR*
74 RBI*
130 OPS+*

25% of season left to play.

Carlos Lee signed his contract in November of 2006 at the age of 30. He put up 32 HR, 114 RBI (109 OPS+) in 2005 and 37 HR, 116 RBI (126 OPS+) in 2006. Dunn is two years younger and just as prodcutive (if not more) than Lee was in 2006.

princeton
08-14-2008, 06:05 PM
Oh well, for the heck of it.

Carlos Lee (career)
Runners on---2569 AB (.856 OPS)
RISP----1205 AB (.896 OPS)
RISP 2 out---753 AB (.888 OPS)
Bases loaded---244 AB (.903 OPS)

Adam Dunn (career)
Runners on---1013 AB (.915 OPS)
RISP----1205 AB (.888 OPS)
RISP 2 out---753 AB (.881 OPS)
Bases loaded---244 AB (1.010 OPS)

And that's after two years of Lee producing big time. I'm sure his numbers were lower across the board through 2006 (before he signed the biggie).

Pitcher: "Oh no, Adam Dunn's coming up. I might walk him and not lose the game."

compare Adam with Lee in percentage of men driven in from 2nd and 3rd, and you'll understand Lee's contract. Almost all GMs want a bat like Lee's, which provides good offense, consistently.conversely, a lot of GMs won't pay Adam for what he does, which is to provide large bursts of inconsistent offense. They see Adam as more luxury than staple.

The other perception of Lee is that Lee hits good pitchers, so he'd be good in the playoffs (if he could ever get there). the perception of Adam is the opposite. I don't know if that's fair; I personally think that Adam can look silly against bad pitchers as well.

I agree with the sentiment that if Adam rocks in the playoffs this year, he'll make himself a LOT of money.

BuckeyeRedleg
08-14-2008, 06:10 PM
Pitcher: "Oh no, Adam Dunn's coming up. I might walk him and not lose the game."

Must be nice to have better hitters in your batting order and be placed in a position to drive them in (and be protected).

I'm sure if Lee hit 6th in the Reds order he'd be pitched around as well. Although, I bet he'd be reaching for those crappy pitches and striking out while Dunn walks.

I still don't see any overwhelming evidence that Lee was a "much better" player in 2006 (at 30) than Dunn is in 2008. In fact, in 2006 Lee was much more unproductive than he is now.

princeton
08-14-2008, 06:22 PM
Must be nice to have better hitters in your batting order and be placed in a position to drive them in (and be protected).

nobody pitches around Adam. pitchers LIKE facing him when the game's on the line.

he doesn't deliver a high percentage of runners, because he doesn't hit the ball very often. that's just not his game. what he does, he does well, but it's not what a lot of teams want to pay a lot to get.

BuckeyeRedleg
08-14-2008, 06:40 PM
nobody pitches around Adam. pitchers LIKE facing him when the game's on the line.

I understand the point you are trying to make but I think you are exaggerating it just a tad.

I doubt any pitchers "LIKE" to face Adam Dunn with the game on the line. That's the reason he is walked so much.

princeton
08-14-2008, 06:58 PM
I understand the point you are trying to make but I think you are exaggerating it just a tad.

I doubt any pitchers "LIKE" to face Adam Dunn with the game on the line. That's the reason he is walked so much.

they especially like to see him when they can't give up a hit, or else need a strikeout/popup.

one more point about Dunn. A lot has been made of Ricciardi's comments, but Ricciardi's right-- Dunn is the last guy that he should want to sign. Ricciardi's not got the best job security (one would think) and Dunn's capable of putting stretches that would get most GMs fired. "That's your $100mill signing??? He's hitting .220 and leading the league in K's!!" You can talk OPS if you want, but those kind of guys are luxuries.

Boston can take him on; Yankees; teams that aren't too worried about cash, and where they already have a lot of slow guys on base.

but Dunn'll get abuse in those places, too. Cincy's pretty polite, and he got some abuse there.

I'd like to see him back in Cincy once we get going again, so I hope that he does NOT sign in Boston or NY. if he does not, Walt could make a nice deal to get him in a couple of years, I think.

Blitz Dorsey
08-14-2008, 07:23 PM
I've been so turned off of baseball in the last week and beginning to get into football that I didn't even read that Dusty quote until now. What a clown. I can't believe I used to defend that guy. He just keeps getting worse and worse.

Why do I remember his San Fran Giants teams always overachieving? That must have been a figment of my imagination.

Degenerate39
08-14-2008, 10:09 PM
Yeah because it would've been HORRIBLE to have him here another year. This is dumb.

SteelSD
08-14-2008, 10:11 PM
they especially like to see him when they can't give up a hit, or else need a strikeout/popup.

Yeah, they "especially" like him so much that they won't give him anything to hit. Of the pitches Dunn's seen in 2008, only 44.8% have been strikes (that's a career low). You think pitchers are giving him a higher percentage of Strikes in key situations? If not, then that's a player opposing pitchers are very very scared of and the hitters following him really don't come into play.

You're so far off base there, you pretty much have to start re-learning the game. 100+ Runs Created guys aren't "luxuries". They're centerpieces.

edabbs44
08-14-2008, 10:23 PM
Yeah, they "especially" like him so much that they won't give him anything to hit. Of the pitches Dunn's seen in 2008, only 44.8% have been strikes (that's a career low). You think pitchers are giving him a higher percentage of Strikes in key situations? If not, then that's a player opposing pitchers are very very scared of and the hitters following him really don't come into play.

You're so far off base there, you pretty much have to start re-learning the game. 100+ Runs Created guys aren't "luxuries". They're centerpieces.

42 guys "created" 100+ runs last year.
52 "created" 100+ runs in 2006.
40 "created" 100+ runs in 2005.

I wouldn't use 100 as my "centerpiece" line. That number is a little low, IMO.

BuckeyeRedleg
08-14-2008, 10:46 PM
42 guys "created" 100+ runs last year.
52 "created" 100+ runs in 2006.
40 "created" 100+ runs in 2005.

I wouldn't use 100 as my "centerpiece" line. That number is a little low, IMO.

And that would be less than 2 hitters per team.

On average there is only 1.5 hitters per team with 100+ RC. I would call that a centerpiece.

Or does centerpiece have to be an Albert Pujols or Babe Ruth?

edabbs44
08-14-2008, 10:56 PM
And that would be less than 2 hitters per team.

On average there is only 1.5 hitters per team with 100+ RC. I would call that a centerpiece.

Or does centerpiece have to be an Albert Pujols or Babe Ruth?

Not really...centerpieces, to me, mean elite. Top 20 kind of guy. Saying a guy is 40-50th most productive wouldn't really tell me that the guy is a centerpiece.

Now I know that Dunn is one of the more consistent guys in this area, as some people fluctuate back and forth over the 100 level. That's a plus for him. But I still think that centerpiece is a little strong of a word for this number.

BuckeyeRedleg
08-14-2008, 10:58 PM
Over that three year period, I wonder how many of those 40-50 per year were over 100 RC each year.

20-30?

edabbs44
08-14-2008, 11:02 PM
Over that three year period, I wonder how many of those 40-50 per year were over 100 RC each year.

20-30?

Since RC is a cumulative stat, Dunn obviously gets bonus points for his durability. Someone (like Carlos Lee) could have easily taken one off his hand and wasn't able to hit the magic number. Lee ends the season with 86 this year.

And according to THT, Dunn had 98 in 2006.

Raisor
08-14-2008, 11:07 PM
Not really...centerpieces, to me, mean elite. Top 20 kind of guy. Saying a guy is 40-50th most productive wouldn't really tell me that the guy is a centerpiece.

Now I know that Dunn is one of the more consistent guys in this area, as some people fluctuate back and forth over the 100 level. That's a plus for him. But I still think that centerpiece is a little strong of a word for this number.

Fine, check out RC/27. with 7.00+

07-28 (Dunn 20th)
06-32 (Dunn 53)
05-28 (Dunn 16)
04-28 (Dunn 16)

Yachtzee
08-14-2008, 11:35 PM
Not really...centerpieces, to me, mean elite. Top 20 kind of guy. Saying a guy is 40-50th most productive wouldn't really tell me that the guy is a centerpiece.

Now I know that Dunn is one of the more consistent guys in this area, as some people fluctuate back and forth over the 100 level. That's a plus for him. But I still think that centerpiece is a little strong of a word for this number.

But there are only 20 of those top 20 guys and I suspect they're hard to get a hold of unless you develop them yourself or have the scratch to pay the big bucks in free agency. If you can't build your team around a Top 20 guy, having a couple of guys in that 40-50th range would be pretty good too. Still a centerpiece, even if you aren't expected to do it alone. In any case, I think Dunn is one of those players who teams should build around. The key is getting the right players to complement his skills rather than trying to force him to adapt in order to pick up the slack for lesser offensive talents.