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Wheelhouse
08-14-2008, 07:06 PM
Per Fay: http://news.cincinnati.com/apps/pbcs.dll/section?category=blog07&plckController=Blog&plckScript=blogScript&plckElementId=blogDest&plckBlogPage=BlogViewPost&plckPostId=Blog%3ae57bcc87-152a-4f72-96fb-cc08b1f396efPost%3a3e68e371-59a4-4e4e-948d-e58f789e6811&sid=sitelife.cincinnati.com

redsmetz
08-14-2008, 07:11 PM
For those who'd like to read the info without clicking, here's what Fay wrote:


Wilkin Castillo, a catcher, is one of the players-to-be-named in the Adam Dunn deal. He's listed as a catcher, but he's played third base, shortstop and outfield.

He turned 24 in June. He's hitting .254 with six home runs and 47 RBI with Triple-A Tuscon. He's a switch hitter.

Falls City Beer
08-14-2008, 07:13 PM
I like athletes behind the dish. Haven't had one of those since, oh, Jason Larue.

Wheelhouse
08-14-2008, 07:15 PM
For those who'd like to read the info without clicking, here's what Fay wrote:

How does one do that, for future reference?

OnBaseMachine
08-14-2008, 07:15 PM
Well that stinks. I was hoping for one of Josh Whitesell, Esmerling Vasquez, or Emiliano Fruto.

princeton
08-14-2008, 07:17 PM
Reds saved about $4mill (split of Dunn's contract plus two comp picks that they won't have to sign), scored a sore-armed pitcher, a reconstructed pitcher, and catcher who may have plateaued...

they could have given away Dunn (not revoked waivers) and saved about $6mill (Dunn's salary plus two comp picks). So they paid $2mill for the three D-backs. That seems OK.

Key will be what they do with the rest of the savings. If it's going into Latin America, then you've got to hope that the program actually produces players, and not ratholes.

OnBaseMachine
08-14-2008, 07:22 PM
What I do like is Castillo is a strong defensive minded catcher and is Dominican which should allow him to work well with Cueto and Volquez. Just don't expect him to hit much.

Falls City Beer
08-14-2008, 07:25 PM
What I do like is Castillo is a strong defensive minded catcher and is Dominican which should allow him to work well with Cueto and Volquez. Just don't expect him to hit much.

Do one thing. Do it well.

Wheelhouse
08-14-2008, 07:29 PM
The DBacks have a buff farm system. The fact that we got 3 players off their 40-man is amazing IMHO.

RedlegJake
08-14-2008, 07:29 PM
Reds saved about $4mill (split of Dunn's contract plus two comp picks that they won't have to sign), scored a sore-armed pitcher, a reconstructed pitcher, and catcher who may have plateaued...

they could have given away Dunn (not revoked waivers) and saved about $6mill (Dunn's salary plus two comp picks). So they paid $2mill for the three D-backs. That seems OK.

Key will be what they do with the rest of the savings. If it's going into Latin America, then you've got to hope that the program actually produces players, and not ratholes.

That is a weird way of looking at it but after mulling it over I see your point money-wise.

HokieRed
08-14-2008, 07:29 PM
I like it a lot. Seems like just the kind of chance you should take in a deal like this. You're not going to get three sure things for a rental of Adam Dunn when the other team knows perfectly well you have no ability to sign him. So what we've got are some guys with positives and risks: a once highly touted but now rehabilitating pitcher whom nobody really knows the ceiling on; an athletic kid who can catch and may just be one of those catchers who gets better and better offensively until he's in his late 20's (for a comp, look at Benji Molina); and probably a stiff shouldered former rotation guy who may end up being a left fielder. This seems to me just exactly what you fish for if you're Walt in a deal like this.

Falls City Beer
08-14-2008, 07:30 PM
The DBacks have a buff farm system. .

They do. Must be nice.

OnBaseMachine
08-14-2008, 07:36 PM
They do. Must be nice.

Actually the DBacks farm system is pretty bare after the Dan Haren trade. Back in April Baseball America rated the Reds farm system as the third best while the DBacks is 20th.

Rojo
08-14-2008, 07:47 PM
Not sure how I should read the Dbacks actions with Castillo. Half-empty -- they couldn't figure out what to do with him. Half-full -- they liked him enough to try to find a spot for him.

PS: anyone know where you get minor-league splits for past years?

OnBaseMachine
08-14-2008, 07:48 PM
The Reds announced Castillo will be assigned to Triple-A Louisville.

Falls City Beer
08-14-2008, 08:08 PM
I think it's only fair to handicap the rankings of Reds vs D-Backs' systems, considering that the D-Backs consistently produce players from their system while the Reds....

OnBaseMachine
08-14-2008, 08:09 PM
I think it's only fair to handicap the rankings of Reds vs D-Backs' systems, considering that the D-Backs consistently produce players from their system while the Reds....

While the Reds produce Johnny Cueto, Jay Bruce, and Joey Votto in one year along with a lesser prospect like Chris Dickerson.

Blitz Dorsey
08-14-2008, 08:10 PM
What I do like is Castillo is a strong defensive minded catcher and is Dominican which should allow him to work well with Cueto and Volquez. Just don't expect him to hit much.

I don't know... he hit .302/.333/.437/.769 in AA ball last year and was a midseason and postseason All-Star. He did tail off this year though. But I have absolutely no problem adding a guy that could develop into a starting (or decent backup) catcher. We just need to hope last year is more telling than this year in regards to his stick.

If he's actually good defensively, I'm sold. However, it worries me that he plays other positions. One way of looking at that is that he's athletic. Another way is that he must not be a great catcher or they would never want to play him anywhere else. But I have no idea what to make of that, hopefully someone has some insight.

lollipopcurve
08-14-2008, 08:24 PM
I like it. Young switch-hitting catcher who's better from the left side. Like FCB, I'm partial to athletic catchers. Castillo played LF for Tucson last night.

Catchers don't grow on trees.

BuckeyeRedleg
08-14-2008, 08:57 PM
The DBacks have a buff farm system.

I'm sure it helps when you sign your number 1 pick too.

OnBaseMachine
08-14-2008, 09:36 PM
Reds get flexible Castillo from D-Backs
Listed as backstop, Reds sought Minor Leaguer for versatility
By Mark Sheldon / MLB.com

PITTSBURGH -- The position title next to Wilkin Castillo's name says "catcher," but it's the other skills that made him even more attractive to the Reds front office.

Castillo was revealed Thursday as one of the players to be named that was acquired from the Diamondbacks for Adam Dunn on Monday. The 24-year-old batted .254 with six home runs and 47 RBIs this season for Triple-A Tucson.

Of the 104 games Castillo played in 2008, 51 were at catcher and 41 were at third base. Another 17 games were played at second base, shortstop or the outfield. Arizona's depth at catcher made it possible for him to be used elsewhere, Reds general manager Walt Jocketty said.

"He was a guy we looked at as being very versatile with a strong arm," Jocketty said. "We think he is a guy that would be very valuable for [manager] Dusty [Baker] because he can play many positions and run well."

Castillo was assigned to Triple-A Louisville and will most likely be a September callup. In five Minor League seasons, he was a .281 hitter with a .322 on-base percentage.

"I think when it comes to his role, we'll evaluate him more when we bring him up and determine how we'll use him," Jocketty said.

If the Reds do use him as a catcher, Castillo will provide some depth. Paul Bako and Javier Valentin are both potential free agents at season's end and the club is still seeing what it has with rookie callup Ryan Hanigan.

Minor League pitcher Dallas Buck was already acquired and assigned to Class A Sarasota. There has been rampant speculation that pitcher Micah Owings is the other player, but Jocketty would not address that issue.

Owings, like Castillo already did, must first clear waivers before the trade can be completed. Owings missed his scheduled start on Wednesday for Tucson with what's been reported as a sore right shoulder.

By rule, players that are injured are not allowed to be placed on waivers, which is likely why the Owings part of the trade has been held up.

There is no word on when the final piece of the Dunn trade puzzle will fall into place.

"Hopefully, it will in the next couple of weeks, but I can't give an answer on that yet," Jocketty said.

http://cincinnati.reds.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20080814&content_id=3309800&vkey=news_cin&fext=.jsp&c_id=cin

Patrick Bateman
08-14-2008, 09:45 PM
I like the fact that Castillo is a really athletic, above average defensive catcher. Those don't grow on trees. I don't think his bat will play well in the majors, but his defense should be enough to make him a back-up for now. And if his bat surprises a bit, especially during his age prime years, he could be a cheap option.

Overall though, I'm not that enthused with this package. Some interesting parts, but I was hoping we could come away with some kind of difference maker in the package, rather than some interesting lower end roster players. Owings getting healthy would be a nice start as he's a rotaton calibre pitcher IMO if healthy. I'm personally most intrigued by Buck out of the 3 guys.

I think Arizona did very well here. The overall package of prospects doesn't appear to be stunningly different in value than the 2 picks. I think you could make reasonable arguments both ways. From that sense, the D-Backs just grabbed a big time slugger for at worst, a minor downgrade in prospects. That's a pretty nice move to be able to make in the heat of a divisional race.

fearofpopvol1
08-14-2008, 10:58 PM
A career .283 batter in the minors with athleticism and good defense. This isn't a bad thing at all. He doesn't hit for power, but still, this might be the best overall catcher the Reds have had in a while. The fact that he is Dominican as well ensures that Bakocan pack his bags and that's a good thing.

Degenerate39
08-14-2008, 11:04 PM
I'd guess that Castillo and Hanigan are the catchers next year?

Stormy
08-14-2008, 11:19 PM
Overall though, I'm not that enthused with this package. Some interesting parts, but I was hoping we could come away with some kind of difference maker in the package, rather than some interesting lower end roster players.

You've absolutely nailed the big picture, in my opinion. I can empathize with these parts being an interesting and acceptable return for Dunn, particularly given his imminent departure. However, this Reds team badly needed "difference-maker(s)" in return for the league's elite HR hitter, and best offensive player they've produced in decades.

I'm somewhat intrigued, but by the same token, I'm not sure any of these guys ever plays a single relevant, productive season for the Reds. As interesting as the pieces are, I'd give Walt's first effort a resounding yawn. It's too bad, as Walt is usually the guy who can turn 3 irrelevant prospects into a superstar (such as trading shined up detritus for McGwire, Edmonds, Rolen etc...) whereas, he's now on the receiving end of such a deal.

I like Castillo's profile ok, am enthused to see the utilization of Owings, and am curious to see if Buck ever returns to form... but overall, "meh"

jojo
08-15-2008, 12:02 AM
Actually the DBacks farm system is pretty bare after the Dan Haren trade. Back in April Baseball America rated the Reds farm system as the third best while the DBacks is 20th.

Ya and all players on a 40 man are not created equal.

WVRedsFan
08-15-2008, 12:03 AM
You've absolutely nailed the big picture, in my opinion. I can empathize with these parts being an interesting and acceptable return for Dunn, particularly given his imminent departure. However, this Reds team badly needed "difference-maker(s)" in return for the league's elite HR hitter, and best offensive player they've produced in decades.

I'm somewhat intrigued, but by the same token, I'm not sure any of these guys ever plays a single relevant, productive season for the Reds. As interesting as the pieces are, I'd give Walt's first effort a resounding yawn. It's too bad, as Walt is usually the guy who can turn 3 irrelevant prospects into a superstar (such as trading shined up detritus for McGwire, Edmonds, Rolen etc...) whereas, he's now on the receiving end of such a deal.

I like Castillo's profile ok, am enthused to see the utilization of Owings, and am curious to see if Buck ever returns to form... but overall, "meh"

Yeah.

We traded a lot of offense (and IMHO not too bad defense--and I know what many are thinking--no, I'm not blind) for a sore armed pitcher, a kid who's already had TJ surgery, and a catcher who apparently can't hit.

Underwhelming, to say the least. I was expecting much more, but it seemed that the Reds wanted rid of his salary no matter what, so off he went to the desert.

I have to think Walt has a general plan and this was part of it. I just hope we start seeing parts of that plan soon. So far, I have no clue.

jojo
08-15-2008, 12:11 AM
Wowsers, I didn't think it was possible for a 24 year old to hit .245/.294/.347 in the PCL but there you go....

I'm not too fuzzied up by the notion he played in LF the other night.....

At least he wont be clogging up the bases.

Stormy
08-15-2008, 12:21 AM
Wowsers, I didn't think it was possible for a 24 year old to hit .245/.294/.347 in the PCL but there you go....

I'm not too fuzzied up by the notion he played in LF the other night.....

At least he wont be clogging up the bases.

You pretty much have to pray that Owings' shoulder is healthy, and that he is also on the verge of an unforeseen major breakthrough, in order to believe that the Reds received anything capable of making a positive impact anytime soon (or for that matter, ever).

A catcher whose best attribute is perhaps his versatility. An A ball pitcher who hasn't shown any signs of returning to form post surgery. And a mid-to-back rotation pitcher who has vacillated between injury and horrid performance in 2008. There are no sure things here, and unlike most risk-laden propositions, I'm not sure there's anyone involved with incredible upside even in a best case scenario.

Seems like the addition of a 24th/25th man (of the type that Dusty might misuse left and right), and some arms that will have to overcome adversity just to be average, again. My hopes rest on Owings, who more and more is all that I potentially like about this deal.

jojo
08-15-2008, 12:44 AM
You pretty much have to pray that Owings' shoulder is healthy, and that he is also on the verge of an unforeseen major breakthrough, in order to believe that the Reds received anything capable of making a positive impact anytime soon (or for that matter, ever).

A catcher whose best attribute is perhaps his versatility. An A ball pitcher who hasn't shown any signs of returning to form post surgery. And a mid-to-back rotation pitcher who has vacillated between injury and horrid performance in 2008. There are no sure things here, and unlike most risk-laden propositions, I'm not sure there's anyone involved with incredible upside even in a best case scenario.

Seems like the addition of a 24th/25th man (of the type that Dusty might misuse left and right), and some arms that will have to overcome adversity just to be average, again. My hopes rest on Owings, who more and more is all that I potentially like about this deal.

Out of the deal, I actually like Buck but I'm Beaver-biased. Lets call a spade a spade....the hope is that over the next year he'll return to the "stuff" level he was at as a junior in college.....then you hope he starts acting like an A baller and begins to develop as an aging 24 yo....

Big Klu
08-15-2008, 12:56 AM
I like athletes behind the dish. Haven't had one of those since, oh, Jason Larue.

I like athletic catchers, too. Ryan Hanigan also appears to have some athletic ability.

Castillo sounds like he could be Eli Marrero v2.0.

IslandRed
08-15-2008, 12:57 AM
Yeah.

We traded a lot of offense (and IMHO not too bad defense--and I know what many are thinking--no, I'm not blind) for a sore armed pitcher, a kid who's already had TJ surgery, and a catcher who apparently can't hit.

Underwhelming, to say the least. I was expecting much more, but it seemed that the Reds wanted rid of his salary no matter what, so off he went to the desert.

I have to think Walt has a general plan and this was part of it. I just hope we start seeing parts of that plan soon. So far, I have no clue.

It was also a lot of offense with an expiration date of six weeks from now.

Let's face facts here. Baseball says the team is entitled to the first six years of the players it develops. Cincinnati got seven years from Dunn. Dunn is about to test the free-agent market, and the Reds aren't entitled to squat except for the two draft picks if we offer arb and lose him anyway. If that doesn't appeal, then we're entitled to work the best trade we can or try to re-sign him at free-agent prices. Jocketty obviously didn't feel we could keep Dunn off the market on terms that made sense, and we don't need Dunn for a pennant race, so we mucked around with the first two options and did the best we could.

As far as the notion "we should have done better" -- there's no such thing as a VORP Exchange. A player's trade value is what another GM will give for him. Period. Short of a revelation that a better offer was left on the table back in July, it's hard for me to criticize Jocketty here; I'm mildly surprised we got this much.

Wheelhouse
08-15-2008, 01:07 AM
It was also a lot of offense with an expiration date of six weeks from now.

Let's face facts here. Baseball says the team is entitled to the first six years of the players it develops. Cincinnati got seven years from Dunn. Dunn is about to test the free-agent market, and the Reds aren't entitled to squat except for the two draft picks if we offer arb and lose him anyway. If that doesn't appeal, then we're entitled to work the best trade we can or try to re-sign him at free-agent prices. Jocketty obviously didn't feel we could keep Dunn off the market on terms that made sense, and we don't need Dunn for a pennant race, so we mucked around with the first two options and did the best we could.

As far as the notion "we should have done better" -- there's no such thing as a VORP Exchange. A player's trade value is what another GM will give for him. Period. Short of a revelation that a better offer was left on the table back in July, it's hard for me to criticize Jocketty here; I'm mildly surprised we got this much.

Here, here.

AmarilloRed
08-15-2008, 01:41 AM
We really are lacking in catching depth; Castillo will help in that regard. He seems to be a good defensive catcher, and can be a good hitter with time.

Caveat Emperor
08-15-2008, 02:02 AM
We really are lacking in catching depth; Castillo will help in that regard. He seems to be a good defensive catcher, and can be a good hitter with time.

Lots of good defensive catchers have passed through the Reds farm system -- the second part, hitting, is where they all fell down. Frankly, I fail to see the difference between Castillo and any of those other good glove/no-stick players. As a rule, I dislike players that don't at least carry their weight offensively -- Castillo projects to be a player that is unable to do that.

If you have strong bats elsewhere, you can carry a poor bat at a premium defensive position. Trouble is, the Reds do not have strong bats elsewhere.

jojo
08-15-2008, 08:23 AM
Lots of good defensive catchers have passed through the Reds farm system -- the second part, hitting, is where they all fell down. Frankly, I fail to see the difference between Castillo and any of those other good glove/no-stick players. As a rule, I dislike players that don't at least carry their weight offensively -- Castillo projects to be a player that is unable to do that.

If you have strong bats elsewhere, you can carry a poor bat at a premium defensive position. Trouble is, the Reds do not have strong bats elsewhere.

Ya. And that defense had better be better than strong if tied to a flaccid bat-it had better be outstanding (and no running real fast isn't a huge boon to a player's value per se).

princeton
08-15-2008, 10:57 AM
That is a weird way of looking at it but after mulling it over I see your point money-wise.

out of the players, I know that Owings is probably seen as key, but the interesting one is really Buck. He put up VERY nice pro numbers in 2007 for a guy pitching through an injury that needed TJ surgery. outright weird numbers, in fact. he'll be interesting to watch next year. Physically, he's a much better bet than Daryl Thompson ever was.

the other good thing about the deal is that sometimes teams try to unload their head cases in such trades. That's probably not the case for Owings and Castillo, who are well known by their former PD director, the Reds' Bob Miller

(for Dallas Buck, all bets are off on that front; Miller was with Reds when Buck was drafted)

Hap
08-15-2008, 11:00 AM
He doesn't hit for power...

He also has never played a summer at the GAB.

Falls City Beer
08-15-2008, 11:03 AM
It was also a lot of offense with an expiration date of six weeks from now.

Let's face facts here. Baseball says the team is entitled to the first six years of the players it develops. Cincinnati got seven years from Dunn. Dunn is about to test the free-agent market, and the Reds aren't entitled to squat except for the two draft picks if we offer arb and lose him anyway. If that doesn't appeal, then we're entitled to work the best trade we can or try to re-sign him at free-agent prices. Jocketty obviously didn't feel we could keep Dunn off the market on terms that made sense, and we don't need Dunn for a pennant race, so we mucked around with the first two options and did the best we could.

As far as the notion "we should have done better" -- there's no such thing as a VORP Exchange. A player's trade value is what another GM will give for him. Period. Short of a revelation that a better offer was left on the table back in July, it's hard for me to criticize Jocketty here; I'm mildly surprised we got this much.

Completely accurate.

princeton
08-15-2008, 11:13 AM
the Castillo acquisition lets us know that Dusty's back:

(Castillo's) strength is hes very versatile. Hes a good athlete. He can run. Hes the kind of player who can be very useful to Dusty (Baker)," Jocketty said.

Falls City Beer
08-15-2008, 11:15 AM
the Castillo acquisition lets us know that Dusty's back:

(Castillo's) strength is hes very versatile. Hes a good athlete. He can run. Hes the kind of player who can be very useful to Dusty (Baker)," Jocketty said.

I wouldn't be so sure about that. Jocketty's axe is as quiet and unpredictable as Henry VIII's.

lollipopcurve
08-15-2008, 11:16 AM
As far as the notion "we should have done better" -- there's no such thing as a VORP Exchange. A player's trade value is what another GM will give for him. Period. Short of a revelation that a better offer was left on the table back in July, it's hard for me to criticize Jocketty here; I'm mildly surprised we got this much.

Agree 100%. People's perceptions about how good a player is do not translate well to what that player's exchange rate is in a trade market.

Falls City Beer
08-15-2008, 11:22 AM
As I said, if any variable could have helped the return, it would have been to have traded him last July. But that option wasn't open to Walt.

princeton
08-15-2008, 11:23 AM
As far as the notion "we should have done better" -- there's no such thing as a VORP Exchange. A player's trade value is what another GM will give for him. Period. Short of a revelation that a better offer was left on the table back in July, it's hard for me to criticize Jocketty here; I'm mildly surprised we got this much.

Jocketty compared the return not to Dunn, but to the two compensation picks that they would have netted, which is the correct way of looking at it:

"We were only going to trade Adam if we could get players who we thought were better than what we’d get in the draft with the compensation picks,” Jocketty said. ‘We think we did.”

Reds also saved cash on the deal (about $4mill, I figure) then yesterday spent $750K on a young RHPer and a young LHPer, who were late round picks. Today, they'll probably spend even a lot more of the savings.

Falls City Beer
08-15-2008, 11:26 AM
Jocketty compared the return not to Dunn, but to the two compensation picks that they would have netted, which is the correct way of looking at it.

But as a deal, it *has* to be compared to Dunn--as Island said a deal is contingent on what value a player has to the trading team, in this case, Arizona.

Then you can get into what the "return" means vs. the picks.

One side of the deal is totally contingent.

princeton
08-15-2008, 11:46 AM
Dunn's history didn't have much to do with the deal.a little, but less than one would expect.

Dunn never had a lot of trade value, as we've often been told. Less than two compensation picks plus cash, certainly, or else he'd have been gone in July. His trade value finally increased when D-backs had no other good options to add a bat, due to waiver restrictions.

Reds didn't look at it as return vs. Dunn, instead looking at it as return plus cash vs. comp picks. D-backs didn't look at it as Dunn's history vs. D-back prospects, but more as we-need-another-bat-for-playoffs plus two comp picks vs. D-back prospects.


But as a deal, it *has* to be compared to Dunn.

maybe. by amateurs ;)

Falls City Beer
08-15-2008, 12:03 PM
maybe. by amateurs ;)

I'm going to go to the store and ask for an iPod that's better than what might be made in 2010.

Caveat Emperor
08-15-2008, 06:58 PM
I'm going to go to the store and ask for an iPod that's better than what might be made in 2010.

But 2010 is the year of the iPod uprising -- you don't want to become a slave 2 years early, do you?

;)

SMcGavin
08-15-2008, 07:08 PM
You pretty much have to pray that Owings' shoulder is healthy, and that he is also on the verge of an unforeseen major breakthrough, in order to believe that the Reds received anything capable of making a positive impact anytime soon (or for that matter, ever).


Yeah. Not that these guys we got are worthless, but there certainly isn't an impact player in the bunch. Not bad guys to have I guess, but I wouldn't go trading my best player for them. (or for that matter, I wouldn't go trading two high draft picks for them)

RedlegJake
08-15-2008, 07:35 PM
(or for that matter, I wouldn't go trading two high draft picks for them)

I guess I'll just have to completely emphatically disagree with you.

11larkin11
08-16-2008, 01:18 AM
Man, just a couple weeks ago I was thinking hey, we could get 6 first round picks (regular, 1 for Alonso not signing, two for Dunn, two for Griffey). Now were back to 1.

remdog
08-16-2008, 01:30 AM
When I read about Castillo I get a picture of Alex Trivino.

Rem

Mario-Rijo
08-16-2008, 01:35 AM
When I read about Castillo I get a picture of Alex Trivino.

Rem

Ouch! He of the career .643 ops.

corkedbat
08-16-2008, 01:40 AM
:D
When I read about Castillo I get a picture of Alex Trivino.

Rem

My first thought too Rem - we're dating ourselves

JaxRed
08-16-2008, 01:54 AM
:D

My first thought too Rem - we're dating ourselves

Why don't you two guys get a room....... ;)

remdog
08-16-2008, 02:16 AM
:D

My first thought too Rem - we're dating ourselves

Yeah, but that's about the only way I can get a date these days! :p:

Rem

remdog
08-16-2008, 02:19 AM
Why don't you two guys get a room....... ;)

Well, since you mentioned it....I did help CB get a room but, ya' know, it's about 2300 miles from Newport Beach to Cincinnati so we're planning on meeting the next time the Reds are in the World Series. ;) Should be any year now.

Rem

GAC
08-16-2008, 07:07 AM
Man, just a couple weeks ago I was thinking hey, we could get 6 first round picks (regular, 1 for Alonso not signing, two for Dunn, two for Griffey). Now were back to 1.

I'm not sure it works that way though. That's if we had kept Dunn and then allowed him to become a free agent.

Dunn is a Type A free agent that is for sure.

Let's say the Yankees sign Dunn. The Reds will then receive one '09 draft pick from the Yankees. If the Yankees have, say, the 22nd overall pick next June, the Reds get that in addition to their own normal first round pick. The Reds also get a supplemental draft pick squeezed in between the first and second round of the draft.


The Reds only get the Yankees' first-round pick if it falls between #16-30. The first 15 picks are protected. So if the Nationals sign Dunn, the Reds are kind of screwed because they do not get the Nats' #2 overall pick. Instead, they get the Nats' second round pick and the supplemental pick.

In the case of Jr.... I'm not sure how that would have worked if we had retained him the remainder of '08 and just declined the option, gave him his 4 mil, and said Adios. I'm not sure what type of compensation we would have received if a team then signed him. Would the Reds then get nothing because it was a team option, not a player one?

oneupper
08-16-2008, 07:54 AM
If I understand the rules correctly, Griffey would not have brought a pick.

To get the pick, you have to offer arbitration. The Reds could have declined the option and offered arbitration. Griffey would have accepted (arbitration can only lower the last salary by 20%, IIRC).

Spitball
08-16-2008, 07:41 PM
From a Jayson Stark article on the trade:

But officials of two other teams say there's "no way" they (the Reds) would've offered Dunn arbitration. "There's a guy who, if you offer him arbitration, there's too good a chance he's going to take you up on it," one said.

I don't know if the beliefs of the above mentioned club officials mirror Jocketty's, but the possibility could have caused the Reds a major problem. At least the deal eliminates that situation. Without the deal, there were too many variables, and not all them good ones.

princeton
08-16-2008, 07:48 PM
From a Jayson Stark article on the trade:


I don't know if the beliefs of the above mentioned club officials mirror Jocketty's, but the possibility could have caused the Reds a major problem. At least the deal eliminates that situation. Without the deal, there were too many variables, and not all them good ones.

Walt said that the club balanced return from the D-backs against the return from two comp pix.

so it sounded like Reds were going to offer arbitration. Dunn might have postured against that, because he gets a better contract if the team that signs him doesn't have to lose a draft pick in the process.

REDREAD
08-16-2008, 11:19 PM
Yeah.

We traded a lot of offense (and IMHO not too bad defense--and I know what many are thinking--no, I'm not blind) for a sore armed pitcher, a kid who's already had TJ surgery, and a catcher who apparently can't hit.

Underwhelming, to say the least. .

I think the better way to look at it is that we traded two compensation picks for these 3 diamondback players.

I'd rather have the Dback players. There's far better odds that one of them will be a productive major leaguer than the two comp picks will be.

Sure, it was a great trade for the Dbax. No denying that. But the Reds waited too long to trade Dunn. The Reds decided to have Dunn play all his most desirable years in Cincy (save for the last 6 weeks). Nothing really wrong with that decision, but it lowers his trade value dramatically.

I think the Reds did good in the Dunn trade. Not spectacular, but better than I thought they would.

REDREAD
08-16-2008, 11:31 PM
From a Jayson Stark article on the trade:


I don't know if the beliefs of the above mentioned club officials mirror Jocketty's, but the possibility could have caused the Reds a major problem. At least the deal eliminates that situation. Without the deal, there were too many variables, and not all them good ones.

Yes, great point. Saving Dunn removes that risk. Despite all the talk about Dunn being marketable if he accepts arbitration, it screws up planning for next year (can't get another LF until Dunn is unloaded) and all eats up budget (can't spend Dunn's money until he is unloaded, possibly causing us to miss out on attractive deals).

Then when you consider some of the money saved may have gone into the draft, it seems like a great idea to trade Dunn for what we got. The offer we got certainly wasn't insulting compared to comp picks. Even if it was slightly less than comp picks, it makes sense. I think it's worth slightly more than comp picks, but I know some people are not wowed by these prospects.

IslandRed
08-17-2008, 12:41 PM
Yes, great point. Saving Dunn removes that risk. Despite all the talk about Dunn being marketable if he accepts arbitration, it screws up planning for next year (can't get another LF until Dunn is unloaded) and all eats up budget (can't spend Dunn's money until he is unloaded, possibly causing us to miss out on attractive deals).

That's a great point.

It's not that having Dunn's production on the team next year would have been bad. Not at all. But if Jocketty's makeover plan involves having that position open and money available, Dunn accepting arbitration would have had an opportunity cost of deferring/derailing other moves.

OldXOhio
08-17-2008, 01:26 PM
But the Reds waited too long to trade Dunn. The Reds decided to have Dunn play all his most desirable years in Cincy (save for the last 6 weeks). Nothing really wrong with that decision, but it lowers his trade value dramatically.



This is how I look at it too. For whatever reason, WK didn't peddle him the last 2 trade deadlines. Who knows what was being offered in return, who knows if Wayne had the Kearns trade on his mind in considering what the return had to be.