Age 25

[WVRedsFan]

When I was growing up, there was a theory supported by many that said when a player reached the age of 25, you pretty much knew what he was going to do over his career. If you look at many major leaguers, this seems to be the case. That brings me to one Edwin Encarnacion.

Edwin is a good player. His defensive skills are in question (especially in throwing the ball to first), but he is at least fair at his position and can be dynamic at the plate--at times. But if we look at this player, at age 25, you have to wonder if he is the answer at third base as we recreate this team under Walt Jocketty.


Edwin Encarnacion

AVG OBP OPS
Career .266 .344 .802
2008 .247 .334 .810

This is, according to theory, what we will get from EdE in the future. Is that enough for a third baseman for this club? He gets on hot streaks, but career statistics seem to indicate that he'll hit for power, but his RBI numbers will be much less than average. This is one of the reasons I think he will be traded over the winter. What do you think?

[fearofpopvol1]

Personally, and I know many will disagree, but I would trade him. I think he's solid (and slightly above average), but he has his holes and I think he might bring back some nice players in a trade.

[Mario-Rijo]

When I was growing up, there was a theory supported by many that said when a player reached the age of 25, you pretty much knew what he was going to do over his career. If you look at many major leaguers, this seems to be the case. That brings me to one Edwin Encarnacion.

Edwin is a good player. His defensive skills are in question (especially in throwing the ball to first), but he is at least fair at his position and can be dynamic at the plate--at times. But if we look at this player, at age 25, you have to wonder if he is the answer at third base as we recreate this team under Walt Jocketty.


Edwin Encarnacion

AVG OBP OPS
Career .266 .344 .802
2008 .247 .334 .810

This is, according to theory, what we will get from EdE in the future. Is that enough for a third baseman for this club? He gets on hot streaks, but career statistics seem to indicate that he'll hit for power, but his RBI numbers will be much less than average. This is one of the reasons I think he will be traded over the winter. What do you think?

Yeah I think to some extent you are correct in the talent department. But what that doesn't take in to account is improving in certain aspects of their game and becoming more consistent. I think he does alright in the RBI dept. at times, he just need to figure out how to be more consistent and have some guys in front of him getting on base. Consistency doesn't come for a couple more years in most of these guys, of course he already has several seasons now under his belt.

That said I think the guy needs glasses big time, he obviously has some vision problems he squints a great deal and his pitch FX stats suggest that he isn't seeing the ball well.

[WVRedsFan]

I agree, although I don't hve a clue who would play third. Edwin's fns (and I am one) have always used the "Young" excuse, but the guy is now 25 and I don't see much improvement. Maybe it's the coaching and maybe it's that he's hit his ceiling, i don't know. What I do know is that I don't think he is the guy that will play that position for a long time on the Reds. He's too inconsistant. While I don't have a tremendous desire to get rid of him, I have to think we can do better. In fact, take a look at other players at age 25 and a vast majority of them pretty much showed what they could do at that age.

[fearofpopvol1]

I think Frazier is the guy to take over. Problem is, he's still a little ways off. You could use Keppinger as a placeholder there next season until he's ready.

[corkedbat]

When I was growing up, there was a theory supported by many that said when a player reached the age of 25, you pretty much knew what he was going to do over his career. If you look at many major leaguers, this seems to be the case. That brings me to one Edwin Encarnacion.

Edwin is a good player. His defensive skills are in question (especially in throwing the ball to first), but he is at least fair at his position and can be dynamic at the plate--at times. But if we look at this player, at age 25, you have to wonder if he is the answer at third base as we recreate this team under Walt Jocketty.


Edwin Encarnacion

AVG OBP OPS
Career .266 .344 .802
2008 .247 .334 .810

This is, according to theory, what we will get from EdE in the future. Is that enough for a third baseman for this club? He gets on hot streaks, but career statistics seem to indicate that he'll hit for power, but his RBI numbers will be much less than average. This is one of the reasons I think he will be traded over the winter. What do you think?

It all depends on what they're offered. I can see them holding on to EdE for another year or two, but if he could bring the right return or be included with Arroyo or Harang in a big deal, I could see them dealing him and going with someone like Keppinger, Hairston, Rosales, Richar, etc. until Frazier is ready.

Not saying I'd do it or they'd be right, but I can see them doing it.

This team needs to make at least one big splash in the trade market this coming offseason. They need at least one deal were they give up one regular and receive two or deal two and receive three.

I have a feeling that we will see at least two gone from among Arroyo, Harang, Cordero, Phillips, Encarnacion & Votto before the start of 09 Spring Training.

[fearofpopvol1]

If he can raise his batting average by the end of the year and manage to get to 30 HRs, I would sell high immediately. I don't think his value will reach any higher than it will be htis offseason assuming he can finish strong.

[Mario-Rijo]

If I were going to deal him (I wouldn't want to) I would call up Anaheim who have tried and tried to get a good 3rd bagger. I think they match up with us well in a deal. I especially like Willits and Izturis and Jose Arredondo but now I think Arredondo is probably damn near untouchable since K-Rod is probably on his way out they may use him to close.

Maybe EE and Coco + filler

for

Willits, Izturis, Arredondo and Rivera (he might be a FA, not sure)

Willits CF
Izturis SS
Bruce RF
Phillips 2B
Votto 1B
Rivera LF
Keppinger 3B (or perhaps get a solid vet via FA for a year or 2)
Hanigan C

Bench
Gregg Zaun C (my pick to replace Bako)
Hairston UT
Dickerson OF
Gonzo SS
Freel/Rosales UT

Something like that is a good defensive and fair offensive unit also with high OBP% guys at the top in Willits and Izturis and solid offensive guys throughout 1-7 and maybe 8 if Hanigan hits ok. Also I think the bench is improved as well.

Also make Burton the closer if he comes back solid (i'm expecting him to) and Arredondo could be used in a setup role. I like it myself.

[WVRedsFan]

I'm certainly not advocating trading him either, but it just appears that is what will happen, at least to me. I just hope they get a lot for him.

[GAC]

Edwin is a good player.

You lost me right there. ;)

He's consistently inconsistent.

[SteelSD]

When I was growing up, there was a theory supported by many that said when a player reached the age of 25, you pretty much knew what he was going to do over his career. If you look at many major leaguers, this seems to be the case. That brings me to one Edwin Encarnacion.

Edwin is a good player. His defensive skills are in question (especially in throwing the ball to first), but he is at least fair at his position and can be dynamic at the plate--at times. But if we look at this player, at age 25, you have to wonder if he is the answer at third base as we recreate this team under Walt Jocketty.


Edwin Encarnacion

AVG OBP OPS
Career .266 .344 .802
2008 .247 .334 .810

This is, according to theory, what we will get from EdE in the future. Is that enough for a third baseman for this club? He gets on hot streaks, but career statistics seem to indicate that he'll hit for power, but his RBI numbers will be much less than average. This is one of the reasons I think he will be traded over the winter. What do you think?

I think that trading 25 year-olds who are already above-average at the plate is an awfully bad way of doing business unless you grab a huge return. Age 25 is two seasons off "age-prime" for hitters, so a team really should look at a hitter that age as if he's of higher value than a player producing similar numbers during his age-prime seasons. There's an age to look at, but 25 isn't it.

[IslandRed]

I think that trading 25 year-olds who are already above-average at the plate is an awfully bad way of doing business unless you grab a huge return. Age 25 is two seasons off "age-prime" for hitters, so a team really should look at a hitter that age as if he's of higher value than a player producing similar numbers during his age-prime seasons. There's an age to look at, but 25 isn't it.

I agree. I don't have any qualms about keeping his bat around. The big question about Encarnacion remains his defensive position. I've pretty well come to my conclusion on the matter -- live with him for now if we must, but the long-range plan should involve a different third baseman -- but I have no idea what Jocketty thinks.

[Kc61]

I agree with some other posters that the key here is the Reds projection of EE's future growth.

But here's the key to me -- if the Reds don't think EE is their thirdbaseman of the future the time to trade him is this off-season. Now. Before his salary gets too high.

If he continues to hit 20-25 homers per season, EE will be expensive (particularly with arbitration) and much harder to trade. Most teams don't want to spend millions on a high-error third baseman.

So the smart move for the Reds is to trade EE now -- or decide that he is the third sacker and stay with him for several more years.

[WVRedsFan]

I agree with some other posters that the key here is the Reds projection of EE's future growth.

But here's the key to me -- if the Reds don't think EE is their thirdbaseman of the future the time to trade him is this off-season. Now. Before his salary gets too high.

If he continues to hit 20-25 homers per season, EE will be expensive (particularly with arbitration) and much harder to trade. Most teams don't want to spend millions on a high-error third baseman.

So the smart move for the Reds is to trade EE now -- or decide that he is the third sacker and stay with him for several more years.
That was the point I was trying to make. If the theory of age 25 is valid, and it may or may not be, then you have to look at what he's done and what he will be. If the Reds want to keep this player who doesn't appear to be improving either with the bat or the glove, they prepare for high salary. And that would be a salary I wouldn't want to pay.

That's why I feel a trade will happen this winter for a third sacker with as much power, more consistant hitting, and better fielding. It may be a minor leaguer, but EdE seems to not be getting any better, and it's a prime time for a move.

[GAC]

I gotta give the kid a "A" for effort. I listened to a pre-game interview with Spier last week, and he talked about the enormous amount of time he and EE spend working on his fielding and foot work. And I still say it's in his foot work. He does have a very fast reaction time, which enables him to make some fantastic stops/plays.

Unfortunately - I think his brain is still two blocks behind. I thought he was going to throw that ball away in today's game vs the Cards when he came home with it. Bako was able to get to it though and still tag the runner. EE makes me nervous whenever a ball is hit to him, and one shouldn't feel that way about their 3bman. ;)

[WVRedsFan]

I gotta give the kid a "A" for effort. I listened to a pre-game interview with Spier last week, and he talked about the enormous amount of time he and EE spend working on his fielding and foot work. And I still say it's in his foot work. He does have a very fast reaction time, which enables him to make some fantastic stops/plays.

Unfortunately - I think his brain is still two blocks behind. I thought he was going to throw that ball away in today's game vs the Cards when he came home with it. Bako was able to get to it though and still tag the runner. EE makes me nervous whenever a ball is hit to him, and one shouldn't feel that way about their 3bman. ;)My impression also. And I agree about the throw to home today. It looked wild and I just knew Bako would either drop it or it would go past him. But I always hold my breath on throws.

He just doesn't seem to use his head after all the work he does, and I understand he works hard, but that's not the point. He's so terribly inconsistant at bat and in the field with no signs of improvement, I think he'll be shopped.

[nate]

My impression also. And I agree about the throw to home today. It looked wild and I just knew Bako would either drop it or it would go past him. But I always hold my breath on throws.

He just doesn't seem to use his head after all the work he does, and I understand he works hard, but that's not the point. He's so terribly inconsistant at bat and in the field with no signs of improvement, I think he'll be shopped.

Offensively, how would you define "inconsistent?"

[SMcGavin]

I like his bat. But he's one of the worst defensive third basemen in the league, a big part of this team's defensive issues. If I'm in charge Edwin is going to LF in 2009.

[WVRedsFan]

Offensively, how would you define "inconsistent?"

That's not a word. I can't define that even though I typed it (can't type--never could--Mrs. Butler, my old typing teacher would understand).

He's very streaky. For instance (including today's good performance) he's hitting .235 over the last week and has 1 HR and 1 RBI. He has 20+ HR and only 48 RBI's. He goes long periods where he looks clueless at the plate and he sulks when he makes a throwing error which effects his hitting.

But it was the spelling you were concerned with, right? Never mind.

[RedsManRick]

That's not a word. I can't define that even though I typed it (can't type--never could--Mrs. Butler, my old typing teacher would understand).

He's very streaky. For instance (including today's good performance) he's hitting .235 over the last week and has 1 HR and 1 RBI. He has 20+ HR and only 48 RBI's. He goes long periods where he looks clueless at the plate and he sulks when he makes a throwing error which effects his hitting.

But it was the spelling you were concerned with, right? Never mind.

I'm pretty sure Nate wanted you to put forth a definition of consistency that went beyond mere anecdote. Something we could apply to other players in order to assess if EE is particularly inconsistent or whether people just like to focus on his streaks and ignore those of the other 99.9% of major league baseball players who go on streaks as well.

[WVRedsFan]

I'm pretty sure Nate wanted you to put forth a definition of consistency that went beyond mere anecdote. Something we could apply to other players in order to assess if EE is particularly inconsistent or whether people just like to focus on his streaks and ignore those of the other 99.9% of major league baseball players who go on streaks as well.

I was trying to be funny, which obviously failed miserably, so I'll try to explain a little bit of why I think like I do.

Most of the 3B in our division (which is all that metters right now), seem to have similar numbers throughout the season. Edwin has the following statistics:

Edwin:

Apr - 293/369/945 (avg/obp/ops) with 7 Hr and 15 rbi (2.1 rbi per Hr)
May -172/228/475 with 1 HR and 8 RBI
Jun - 294/422/1.025 with 5 Hr and 9 RBI (1.8 per HR)
Jul - 291/367/987 with 7 HR and 11 RBI (1.5 per HR)
Aug -171/277/618 with 2 Hr and 5 RBI (2.5 per HR)

He's 25, but Ramirez of the Cubs, who's 30:

Apr - 296/417/988 with 6 HR and 22 RBI (3.6 per HR)
May -318/429/918 with 5 HR and 16 RBI (3.2)
Jun - 265/330/791 with 5 HR and 17 RBI (3.4)
Jul - 228/327/794 with 4 HR and 18 RBI (4.5)
Aug-390/480/1.114 with 2 HR and 8 RBI (4.0)

I did an analysis of the whole league and Edwin is simply off the charts on consistency and it's been that way his whole career. Up and down. Not a bad player, not a really good player, but nothing to covet.

Of course that's my opinion and it's only that.

[nate]

He's very streaky. For instance (including today's good performance) he's hitting .235 over the last week and has 1 HR and 1 RBI.

As a point of comparison, in the same timespan, Justin Morneau is hitting .200/.393/.250 with no HR and 4 RBI.

Maybe he has 4 RBI because he hits behind guys who get on base.


He has 20+ HR and only 48 RBI's.

So that would say his teammates should do a better job of getting on base in front of him or his manager should be him higher.


He goes long periods where he looks clueless at the plate

What are "long periods?"


and he sulks when he makes a throwing error which effects his hitting.

How do you know?


But it was the spelling you were concerned with, right? Never mind.

No, it wasn't the spelling. I genuinely want to know what people mean when they say "inconsistent."

[osuceltic]

If Edwin could stay at third and be a good third baseman, then his bat would be good enough. But he's a terrible third baseman. So his future is first base or left field. Is his bat good enough for those positions? I'm not so sure. Personally, I'd explore the market for the guy. He's not someone you give away by any means, but if you can get quality in a deal, he's a guy I'd move.

[lollipopcurve]

He's not someone you give away by any means, but if you can get quality in a deal, he's a guy I'd move.

With all the 3rd base prospects in the system, Edwin has lost his shot at a LTC with the Reds, I'd say. Year to year at this point, and if there's an interested party in the trade market, the Reds should consider a deal a good option.

[IslandRed]

If Edwin could stay at third and be a good third baseman, then his bat would be good enough. But he's a terrible third baseman. So his future is first base or left field. Is his bat good enough for those positions? I'm not so sure. Personally, I'd explore the market for the guy. He's not someone you give away by any means, but if you can get quality in a deal, he's a guy I'd move.

His trade value primarily depends on whether there are any teams left that think he's a viable third baseman going forward.

As for me, I'd play him in left field without hesitation, assuming he can track a fly ball. He'd lose some value as a hitter relative to position, but he'd still be at least average, and that loss would be recovered by subtracting his negative defensive value. And who knows? He wouldn't be the first guy who started raking at a higher level when he stopped worrying about his defense all the time.

[Big Klu]

In my lifetime, the Reds have developed seven starting third basemen out of their farm system. (Well, Perez was actually already up by the time I was born, but he was still primarily a 3B at the time. I don't count Pete Rose, because he didn't come up as a 3B.) Of the six who came before Encarnacion, four of them eventually were moved off of 3B because of defensive shortcomings:

Tony Perez (moved to 1B in 1972)
Dan Driessen (moved to 1B and LF in 1975, then to 1B full-time in 1977)
Nick Esasky (moved to LF in 1985, then to 1B in 1986)
Chris Sabo
Willie Greene (moved all over the field--LF, RF, 1B, and eventually to Baltimore)
Aaron Boone
Edwin Encarnacion (who knows?)


Sabo and Boone were the only ones who consistently were able to remain at 3B. I don't know what this means, but I think it illustrates how difficult it is to play 3B at a high level, and still maintain a strong bat.

[Rojo]

His trade value primarily depends on whether there are any teams left that think he's a viable third baseman going forward.

It's key, and my guess is that other GM's won't see him at third.

So you get a cheap, slugging left-fielder? There are worse things.

[Ron Madden]

Wow, Only in Cincinnati do you find fans thrilled because a 24 yr old OF OPS'ed 802 in AA before being promoted to AAA.

While they want to get rid of a 25 yr old 3B OPS'ing 819 in the Big Leagues.


;)

[Mario-Rijo]

Wow, Only in Cincinnati do you find fans thrilled because a 24 yr old OF OPS'ed 802 in AA before being promoted to AAA.

While they want to get rid of a 25 yr old 3B OPS'ing 819 in the Big Leagues.


;)

Hmmm, quite interesting. How do the defendants plea?

[Mario-Rijo]

This is what I don't get about the EE argument. People seem to continue to say "his defense is the worst". And no matter how many times someone refutes it with facts people continue to say it as if it's gospel.

He is right there with his peers in terms of errors. He had 5 less errors than the Gold Glove winner at 3rd last year David Wright. Now granted errors isn't the only true measure of a defender, range has to be taken into consideration. Wright may have more range, at least the numbers say he does. But who here isn't satisfied with Edwin's range at 3rd? The difference between the 2 is that EE actually has the better glove/hands. We know where most of his errors come from and we know it's fixable so why at age 25 is he a LF or 1B? Again, Wright won the Gold Glove so I'm not comparing EE to chopped liver.

All that said EE hasn't had as good a year this year but if he has no more E's he will finish with only 2 more than he had last year and I think it's an acceptable number if you look at his peers.

Also I stated earlier what I think his problem is offensively but apparently no one gives the idea any creedence so here is the project undertook by Slyder over at Red Reporter and I have to wonder if it ain't his eyes what is it? I'll post it here but it's much easier to read and understand if you follow the link. Also read the comments section as well as it goes into further analysis. But bottom line with EE is he is in need of some good coaching and perhaps lenscrafters.

(Side note: there is also a link off this link to a BP offensive breakdown just below the article)

http://www.redreporter.com/2008/6/3/544219/what-is-edwin-swinging-at


What is Edwin Swinging At?
by Slyde on Jun 3, 2008 8:00 AM EDT in Features

Last week, I basked in my hate of Brandon Phillips and examined his area of weakness at the plate. This week, I've decided to take a look at player of whom I tend to be a fan: Edwin Encarnacion.

Encarnacion has had a down-then-up-then-down season at the plate this year. He started out the first week and a half ridiculously cold, but then he went on a tear for about a month before falling into another prolonged slump for most of May. His overall batting line (.234/.309/.411 - OPS+ of 84) definitely leaves something to be desired. And while he has stepped up his defense of late, the Reds will need his bat to come around eventually if they are going to be successful this season.



(A quick update on the graphs: The area outlined by the white box is the strike zone. The ten boxes around that zone represent the area six inches outside of the strike zone. The four thin boxes outside of that are all other pitches. Please leave questions or suggestions in the comments.)

More after the jump...



Edwin makes a lot more contact than I expected, especially from the outside corner in. However, if you stare at the graph on the left long enough, you'll notice that Encarnacion has tough time doing anything with balls out of the strike zone. Here's a breakdown in tabular format:


Location Pit Swing% Contact% BIP% AVG BABIP SLG
In Zone 322 63% 88% 57% .333 .382 .706
Out of Zone 447 30% 73% 54% .090 .135 .173

So far this season he has put 52 pitches outside of the strike zone into play and all he has to show for it are 5 singles and 2 doubles. This is a big difference between Encarnacion and Phillips. Both hitters numbers are similar within the zone, but Phillips is batting .271/.475 outside of the strike zone. That's good for Phillips since he swings at balls out of the zone about 10% more often than Edwin.

My first thought when I saw these numbers was that Encarnacion must be swinging at more pitches outside of the zone and that is why he is struggling. In order to check this theory out, I broke out two sets of graphs. The first set is for EdE's "bad periods" from 3/31-4/8 and from 5/3-present:


Location Pit Swing% Contact% BIP% AVG BABIP SLG
In Zone 192 60% 86% 55% .227 .273 .455
Out of Zone 278 29% 70% 53% .061 .100 .100



And then I broke out the same reports for the period from 4/10 - 5/2:


Location Pit Swing% Contact% BIP% AVG BABIP SLG
In Zone 131 67% 90% 59% .471 .511 1.000
Out of Zone 168 31% 77% 55% .138 .182 .273


Based on these numbers, it appears that EdE is actually swinging less when he is hitting poorly - by about 9%. Obviously that's not a bad thing when the ball is out of the zone, but most of his swings are disappearing on pitches in the strike zone. This explains why he has about 5% more called strikes when he's struggling, which then explains why he seems to be getting disgusted with the umpires more lately.

So what's the deal? Well, it's hard to say as these data only show half of the picture. We can't see whether he has a hitch in his swing or if he's pulling his head out or stepping in the bucket. However, looking at these data, he may be having trouble picking up the ball out of the pitcher's hand or perhaps is having confidence issues with his strike zone judgment. This would also explain the low numbers when he's making contact as he may not be squaring the ball up well when he does swing.

Any guesses from the gallery?

[IslandRed]

He is right there with his peers in terms of errors. He had 5 less errors than the Gold Glove winner at 3rd last year David Wright. Now granted errors isn't the only true measure of a defender, range has to be taken into consideration. Wright may have more range, at least the numbers say he does. But who here isn't satisfied with Edwin's range at 3rd? The difference between the 2 is that EE actually has the better glove/hands. We know where most of his errors come from and we know it's fixable so why at age 25 is he a LF or 1B? Again, Wright won the Gold Glove so I'm not comparing EE to chopped liver.

A few points:

1. Gold Gloves are perception. Winning it doesn't make Wright the best defender in reality.

2. It's not total errors, it's error rate. The Reds have a pitching staff that specializes in strikeouts and fly balls, so Edwin has a relatively low number of total chances on a per-inning basis. And he's making more errors on a per-chance basis than nearly all of his peers. (Conversely, his low number of chances is an example of why raw Range Factor isn't very useful, it makes his range look worse than it is.)

3. Range? He has range. But compared to his peers it's not all that. Look at the list of starting third basemen in the majors, and there aren't many statues. They're mostly reasonably athletic guys who have been known to make diving stops, too. Every advanced metric I've seen tells the same story -- his range doesn't come close to making up for his lack of reliability.

4. "We know it's fixable" -- Every baseball skill is theoretically fixable. But he's had the same problem all along, so why isn't it fixed yet? He improved some last year but regressed this year. How many more years are you willing to wait for him to be consistently good?

To my way of thinking, the Reds have been pretty patient. Back in 2006, he posted the worst FP of any qualified regular 3B in years, yet they stuck with him. The first guy to "beat" that mark was immediately packed off to the outfield (Ryan Braun).

Bottom line, for me -- rangy young defenders make a lot of errors. Some of them will develop the reliability to hold down the position for a long time, and many of them won't. I've pretty well made my determination on which one he is. That doesn't mean I don't want Encarnacion on the team, I just think we're better off with him at another position. If you disagree, no problem.

[RFS62]

Nice post, Island Red

[Ltlabner]

Here's my hangup over the whole EE isn't cutting it argument.

I think we can all agree his biggest issues revolve around throwing the ball. Even some of his miscues with the glove tend to be related to making the transfer to throwing.

But throwing can be *fixed*. Instincts can't be. Reaction times can't be. Inate athletic ability can't be. EE seems to have those skills that can't be taught. But throwing issues *can* be fixed.

The instant response is "how long will you wait". Here's my answer...how much soild instruction has he been getting? Most of us here slag(ed) on the Reds manager and coaching staff for the past 3 years, but then assume EE been getting nothing but top-flight instruction. He's spent a lot of time working with Bucky Dent or Chris Speers but is their coaching worth a damn? Maybe it is at which point it's fair to say EE may never figure it out.

But if we all agree that the management and coaching staff in Cincy hasn't been world-class the past few years, how can we assume that EE's been recieving world-class instruction? All the practice in the world woln't change a thing if he's not practicing the right things.

So that's my hangup with EE. He's got all the basic building blocks of a solid player so I'd hate to shuffle him out of town because he didn't get the right instruction. It wouldn't suprise me to see him go to a different team and blossom.

[IslandRed]

I think we can all agree his biggest issues revolve around throwing the ball. Even some of his miscues with the glove tend to be related to making the transfer to throwing.

But throwing can be *fixed*. Instincts can't be. Reaction times can't be. Inate athletic ability can't be. EE seems to have those skills that can't be taught. But throwing issues *can* be fixed.

They can be, but by the time a ballplayer is 25 years old, that's a lot of mental history and muscle memory to overcome. Improvement from that point forward is incremental and hard-won. It could happen. But we're at a flashpoint where Jocketty's going to be making decisions about the franchise's future direction, and it's a question of how much anyone's willing to stake on it.

[Mario-Rijo]

A few points:

1. Gold Gloves are perception. Winning it doesn't make Wright the best defender in reality.

2. It's not total errors, it's error rate. The Reds have a pitching staff that specializes in strikeouts and fly balls, so Edwin has a relatively low number of total chances on a per-inning basis. And he's making more errors on a per-chance basis than nearly all of his peers. (Conversely, his low number of chances is an example of why raw Range Factor isn't very useful, it makes his range look worse than it is.)

3. Range? He has range. But compared to his peers it's not all that. Look at the list of starting third basemen in the majors, and there aren't many statues. They're mostly reasonably athletic guys who have been known to make diving stops, too. Every advanced metric I've seen tells the same story -- his range doesn't come close to making up for his lack of reliability.

4. "We know it's fixable" -- Every baseball skill is theoretically fixable. But he's had the same problem all along, so why isn't it fixed yet? He improved some last year but regressed this year. How many more years are you willing to wait for him to be consistently good?

To my way of thinking, the Reds have been pretty patient. Back in 2006, he posted the worst FP of any qualified regular 3B in years, yet they stuck with him. The first guy to "beat" that mark was immediately packed off to the outfield (Ryan Braun).

Bottom line, for me -- rangy young defenders make a lot of errors. Some of them will develop the reliability to hold down the position for a long time, and many of them won't. I've pretty well made my determination on which one he is. That doesn't mean I don't want Encarnacion on the team, I just think we're better off with him at another position. If you disagree, no problem.

Gold Gloves are only part perception you cannot be a terrible fielder and win it to my knowledge. That said I hadn't taken error rate into consideration, that's a good point.

EE 16 errors in 340 TC - 1 error every 21.25 touches the ball
Wright 21 errors in 452 TC - 1 error every 21.52 touches the ball

Which tells mean one thing he is completely capable of putting together a good solid season on defense. Now whether Walt and company believe that at this point I do not know. I would rather keep him there one more year but I would understand if they are fed up with waiting on him also. I would try him at 1st though before I would send him to LF, that is a whole different ballgame out there.

[SMcGavin]

Among major league third basemen, EdE is dead last in RZR (revised zone rating). Last season he was second to last, ahead of Ryan Braun. Two years ago he was second to last. He also consistently ranks near the bottom in fielding percentage (second to last this year). So not only does Edwin have no range, but he makes tons of errors on the balls he does get to. If the Reds are serious about defense there's no way we can let EdE stay on third.

[Big Klu]

Gold Gloves are only part perception you cannot be a terrible fielder and win it to my knowledge.

I don't know about that, but Rafael Palmeiro won a Gold Glove with the Rangers in 1999 despite playing only 28 games at 1B the entire season.

[Ltlabner]

They can be, but by the time a ballplayer is 25 years old, that's a lot of mental history and muscle memory to overcome. Improvement from that point forward is incremental and hard-won. It could happen. But we're at a flashpoint where Jocketty's going to be making decisions about the franchise's future direction, and it's a question of how much anyone's willing to stake on it.

Yea, I can see that. At least with the mental history stuff. If he's always thinking, "God don't muff this throw" chances are good he'll muff the throw.

Muscle memory I don't agree with. That can be changed with regular and consistant practice.

[Mario-Rijo]

Among major league third basemen, EdE is dead last in RZR (revised zone rating). Last season he was second to last, ahead of Ryan Braun. Two years ago he was second to last. He also consistently ranks near the bottom in fielding percentage (second to last this year). So not only does Edwin have no range, but he makes tons of errors on the balls he does get to. If the Reds are serious about defense there's no way we can let EdE stay on third.

So you have a problem with his range? I don't see his range being that bad so either RZR is wrong or everyone else is Brooks Robinson.

With that said I understand the argument but the kid is actually just shy of 3 full seasons worth of games. He's played in 439 games and 3 full season would be 486 games. So I wouldn't be opposed to him having one more offseason, spring training and at least 1/3 of next season to see if he improves. However like I said earlier I would understand if they moved him to another position or even to another team but I think he has shown enough to warrant giving him more time. If he were having multiple problems over there I might say he has had enough time but he is having only 1 problem.

[Mario-Rijo]

I don't know about that, but Rafael Palmeiro won a Gold Glove with the Rangers in 1999 despite playing only 28 games at 1B the entire season.

I knew about that one which was a bad decision but he wasn't a bad fielder at 1st.

[Kc61]

Among major league third basemen, EdE is dead last in RZR (revised zone rating). Last season he was second to last, ahead of Ryan Braun. Two years ago he was second to last. He also consistently ranks near the bottom in fielding percentage (second to last this year). So not only does Edwin have no range, but he makes tons of errors on the balls he does get to. If the Reds are serious about defense there's no way we can let EdE stay on third.

His fielding percentage this year is .928. That's .928. The top defender at third in the MLB has 5 errors. EE has 18.

Young players from the Reds' system are adored on this site. But there needs to be some objectivity. Somewhere on this thread I saw a comparison with David Wright. Wright is a lifetime .900 plus OPS hitter. He's a perennial all star, he destroys lefty pitching, and his fielding percentage this year is .960.

The Reds have a lot of needs, if they want to keep Encarnacion at third one more year, I'll understand. He's still not expensive, he's young and athletic, he occasionally gets hot at bat, and there are many other priorities. But all the posts on earth won't change the errors and deep slumps.

[HokieRed]

KC has nailed it. EE's got some upside and he's cheap. But if the team is serious about defense, he's got to be somewhere else than third. And with the slumps as bad as they are, and this team's offense as marginal as it is, I'm increasingly unhappy with him anywhere in the middle of the lineup. So you've got a guy who probably should bat about 7th and be a left-fielder. Can a team with our offense afford a left-fielder who hits seventh? Is that where left fielders hit on good teams?

[Mario-Rijo]

His fielding percentage this year is .928. That's .928. The top defender at third in the MLB has 5 errors. EE has 18.

Young players from the Reds' system are adored on this site. But there needs to be some objectivity. Somewhere on this thread I saw a comparison with David Wright. Wright is a lifetime .900 plus OPS hitter. He's a perennial all star, he destroys lefty pitching, and his fielding percentage this year is .960.

The Reds have a lot of needs, if they want to keep Encarnacion at third one more year, I'll understand. He's still not expensive, he's young and athletic, he occasionally gets hot at bat, and there are many other priorities. But all the posts on earth won't change the errors and deep slumps.

No doubt he has not been good at all this year and prior to last year as well. But he still has less than 3 years of game experience at this level, and has shown the ability to be a good fielder for a time albeit a small sample size ('07). So I can see why he would be given one last shot there because his bat plays better there than it will at 1st or LF. But I can also see if the F.O. has seen enough as well.

I guess I am on the fence and can see all the bad but I also look for some good and have seen some albeit lesser than the bad. I don't have a problem with people pointing out the obvious but everything has 2 sides to it and the other side for EE isn't always well represented.

[Ltlabner]

Can a team with our offense afford a left-fielder who hits seventh? Is that where left fielders hit on good teams?

Not sure about that, but we know darn well where the CF and SS bat.

[HokieRed]

Good point, Ltlabner, the amazing thing is that Dusty will bat a 2nd baseman fourth. Don't they usually hit 2nd or 8th?