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View Full Version : OH SNAP!! - Who's to Blame for Adam's Dunn's lack of RBIs?!?! Guess who/what?



BLEEDS
08-17-2008, 12:35 PM
http://news.cincinnati.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080817/SPT04/808170435/1071

Hey, who's counting?
Dunn can't drive 'em in if they're not on base

How can one hit 40 home runs for four straight years and never drive in more than 106 runs?

If you believe certain commentators, it can happen only if you are "not clutch" - or have a character flaw.

Or you "only hit home runs."

Or you never drive in your teammates because of "too many strikeouts and walks."

Or you have a "terrible batting average with runners in scoring position."

We believe that these criticisms - all of which were leveled at Adam Dunn while he was here - should be analyzed.

They strike at the heart of understanding just what it takes for a team to score the necessary 40-60 runs more than it allows over the course of 162 games to put a team into contention for the postseason.

The evidence shows that the problem with Dunn's RBI count wasn't as much Dunn as it was his teammates.

Baseball Prospectus tracks OBI percentage, "Others Batted In." In OBI, a hitter gets credit only for the teammates he drives in, not for driving himself in with a home run. Baseball Prospectus also tracks - via ROB (Runners on Base) - the number of opportunities that a batter has to drive in a teammate.

Let's look at Dunn in 2007 (40 HR / 106 RBI), his best RBI year. He came up with 427 runners in front of him, and drove home 66 of them (15.5 percent).

The major league average in 2007 was 14.4 percent, about what it usually is. (The figure so far for 2008 is 14.0 percent; Dunn is 15.6 percent).

The major league leader in 2007 for opportunities to drive in runs was Alex Rodriguez.

He had 530 ROB, 103 more than Dunn. If Dunn had as many runners on base in 2007 as did A-Rod, Dunn's RBI count would have been 122, instead of 106, using Dunn's 15.5 percent OBI.

So, how does Dunn compare to the league leaders in RBI this year?

Player ROB OBI OBI% HR-RBI
Ryan Howard 373 70 18.8 33-103
Carlos Lee 358 72 20.1 28-100
David Wright 394 71 18.0 23-94
Ryan Ludwick 326 60 18.4 30-90
Adrian Gonzalez 361 61 16.9 28 -89
Adam Dunn* 269 42 15.6 32-74

* with Reds

Reds announcers spent a large part of the Houston series praising Carlos Lee's ability to always get the runner home.

True, Lee has had a great year, driving in 20 percent of the 358 runners on base in front of him (20 percent will always place a hitter among the leaders in this category).

But if Dunn had Lee's opportunities, even with Dunn's OBI, Dunn would have 13 more RBI.

Would not 32 homers, 87 RBI change the perception of Dunn among Reds fans and media types? No question.

Now, for the big question: Why did Dunn have so few opportunities this year?

Ponder these woeful on-base percentages of the batters who hit in front of Dunn, in slots 1-4.

For those slots, in descending order, the Reds' on-base percentages are .310, .314, .324 and .320. Those numbers trail the league averages by 27, 16, 41 and 39 points, respectively.

RBI totals are as much a function of opportunities as they are a function of a player's slugging percentage.

Granted, Dunn is not an easy case-study. His combination of offensive skills and shortcomings is unique in baseball history.

He became the poster boy for a bad Reds team; he should have been the poster boy for the importance of statistical analysis in determining the true source of an offense's inability to score runs.

It's not unusual that Dunn would get the blame for almost everything wrong with the Reds the last few years. What we can't understand is his being blamed for not driving in runners who weren't on base in front of him.

""""


Dang, now the MEDIA gets it - after he's gone. Hopefully the fans will too - someday - maybe? - NAHHHHHH!!!
Of course, the local media only brings these arguments up AFTER he's gone - better to run off your best Offensive Weapon than upset your favorite sportscaster or average fan I guess.

It's what us who get labeled "Dunn Lovers" have been saying - RIGHT THERE in the title, NOBODY'S ON BASE!! at least with the Reds, with "Hackey Jones" batting cleanup, with arguably the lowest OBP of all Cleanup Hitters in the entire Majors, and leading the league in GIDP's.

OH, but it must be his "BA w/RISP"?!?! Again, blown out of the water.

When guys are on base, Dunn gets them in, PERIOD.

Oh well, we got what we wanted - less home runs to go with our ridiculously low OBP, resulting in even lower OPS, and guess what - LESS RUNS.

I can't belive Dickerson and CFP haven't saved 15 runs a game with their stellar Defense and Speed?!?! ODD!!!

PEACE

-BLEEDS

DannyB
08-17-2008, 12:40 PM
If you believe certain commentators, it can happen only if you are "not clutch" - or have a character flaw.

Or you "only hit home runs."

Or you never drive in your teammates because of "too many strikeouts and walks."

:laugh:

kpresidente
08-17-2008, 12:54 PM
So, how does Dunn compare to the league leaders in RBI this year?

Player ROB OBI OBI% HR-RBI
Ryan Howard 373 70 18.8 33-103
Carlos Lee 358 72 20.1 28-100
David Wright 394 71 18.0 23-94
Ryan Ludwick 326 60 18.4 30-90
Adrian Gonzalez 361 61 16.9 28 -89
Adam Dunn* 269 42 15.6 32-74

This is misleading. Why not just rank Dunn in OBI%? Wouldn't that tell you exactly his value as a run producer? Sure, those other guys have more RBI because their teams are better, but their OBI% is higher as well. They should drive in more runs, even on equal teams.

Everybody knows the Reds can't get on base. Everybody knows Dusty can't make a line-up. Everybody knows Dunn would have more RBI for other teams.

The question for me was "could other player(s) drive in more runs than Dunn for the same money?" I could never find a definative answer (though I had my suspicions), which is why I kept flip-flopping on Dunn.

It's ridiculous to directly compare the Reds with Dunn to the Reds without Dunn. Of course the offense is worse. But we now have $16-18 million to make up that difference.

kpresidente
08-17-2008, 01:15 PM
The major league average in 2007 was 14.4 percent, about what it usually is. (The figure so far for 2008 is 14.0 percent; Dunn is 15.6 percent).

This is also misleading. "league average" includes SS, 2B, catchers and even pitchers. Take those weak hitting positions away and what happens to that "league average?"

I bet it rises at least to 15.5%, maybe higher. And if it does rise that high, it means Dunn is only a "league-average" run producer. Hardly what you'd expect from a guy with a .900 OPS.

texasdave
08-17-2008, 01:19 PM
Well if less less than two years data impresses you, then why don't you check out Adam Dunn for his entire career. This link ought to make an impression on you.

http://www.baseballmusings.com/cgi-bin/RBIPCT.py?StartDate=07%2F20%2F2001&EndDate=08%2F16%2F2008&SortField=1.0*%28OnRBI.RBI-OnRBI.HRs%29%2FOnRBI.RunnersOn&SortDir=desc&MinPA=2500

Adam Dunn made his major league debut on July 20, 2001. From that point in time until the present there are 55 players that have come to the plate with more than 2,500 ROB (runners on base). These are the big dogs for the most part. The middle-of-the-order players. How does AD stack up? If 55th out of 55 impresses you then he stacks up pretty well indeed. He has knocked in 12.97% of the ROB in his career. That seems to be below the major league average stated in the article of around 14%. If you just use the totals of these 55 players the OBI% comes in at roughly 16.1%. Much better than 12.97% wouldn't you agree?

This is the part of the article that I find curious:


So, how does Dunn compare to the league leaders in RBI this year?


Player ROB OBI OBI% HR-RBI
Ryan Howard 373 70 18.8 33-103
Carlos Lee 358 72 20.1 28-100
David Wright 394 71 18.0 23-94
Ryan Ludwick 326 60 18.4 30-90
Adrian Gonzalez 361 61 16.9 28 -89
Adam Dunn* 269 42 15.6 32-74

Everyone in that article is over 18.0 except for Adrian Gonzalez and AD. And even Gonzalez comes in 1.3 higher than Dunn. And this is supposed to show Adam Dunn in a positive light how?

Yes, for the past year plus Adam Dunn has knocked in other runners at a slightly better than average rate. But is the average major leaguer making 13 million a year? Oh yeah, with a probable bump up to 16+ million? Hardly.

kpresidente
08-17-2008, 01:23 PM
Adam Dunn made his major league debut on July 20, 2001. From that point in time until the present there are 55 players that have come to the plate with more than 2,500 ROB (runners on base). These are the big dogs for the most part. The middle-of-the-order players. How does AD stack up? If 55th out of 55 impresses you then he stacks up pretty well indeed. He has knocked in 12.97% of the ROB in his career. That seems to be below the major league average stated in the article of around 14%. If you just use the totals of these 55 players the OBI% comes in at roughly 16.1%. Much better than 12.97% wouldn't you agree?


Wow! I noticed some flaws in the argument, but that's a lot more drastic than I suspected. I think you've turned this thread around 180 degrees.

kpresidente
08-17-2008, 01:25 PM
What's the OBI% for other players on the team? Phillips, EE, Votto, etc?

That would be interesting. How do they rank compared to Dunn?

4-28
08-17-2008, 01:32 PM
Yes, for the past year plus Adam Dunn has knocked in other runners at a slightly better than average rate. But is the average major leaguer making 13 million a year? Oh yeah, with a probable bump up to 16+ million? Hardly.

Good reasoning except for this part. You can't look at an average salary to compare Adam Dunn to. Why you ask? Because baseball is an imperfect market. Players don't actually hit the "market" until their seventh year in the bigs. Their costs are controlled until then. If you want to determine what Dunn should be worth now, you can only compare him to other players on the free agent market, as they're the only ones who we're presumably able to see the "true" economic worth of (insert Bill Bavasi/stupid exec comments here). Otherwise, you're comparing him to players like Josh Hamilton, making $400k this year, but if he were to be paid his "worth" this for just this year, he'd be making $20 million plus.

4-28
08-17-2008, 01:34 PM
What's the OBI% for other players on the team? Phillips, EE, Votto, etc?

That would be interesting. How do they rank compared to Dunn?

I recently saw the numbers, can't remember where. Dunn was in the lead for the Reds, with Phillips floating in the 12-13% range, and Edwin down below 10%. May have changed a little since I last saw them, but I doubt by much.

redsfanmia
08-17-2008, 01:55 PM
He is gone and he is not coming back so let it go.

kpresidente
08-17-2008, 01:58 PM
I recently saw the numbers, can't remember where. Dunn was in the lead for the Reds, with Phillips floating in the 12-13% range, and Edwin down below 10%. May have changed a little since I last saw them, but I doubt by much.

That's horrible. If EE and Phillips (supposedly our other run producers) are that far under league-average, it becomes pretty clear why we can't score runs. We don't get 'em on and we don't knock 'em in.

I blame Dusty.

ChatterRed
08-17-2008, 02:15 PM
This is also misleading. "league average" includes SS, 2B, catchers and even pitchers. Take those weak hitting positions away and what happens to that "league average?"

I bet it rises at least to 15.5%, maybe higher. And if it does rise that high, it means Dunn is only a "league-average" run producer. Hardly what you'd expect from a guy with a .900 OPS.


I had the same thought. :thumbup:

DTCromer
08-17-2008, 03:04 PM
Reds fans are sooo shortsighted it's not even funny.

People were screaming and shouting at "The Trade" because they were looking at what would happen in the next day or month and not next year. Well, Felipe and Austin turned out to be what most smart fans, like myself, thought and that was OVERRATED.

Dunn's production is unquestionable. However, no one in their right minds would think the Reds would resign Dunn for what he wants. Again, a small market team like Cincinnati isn't going to pay Dunn 10-15 mllion for the glaring deficiencies in his game. Dunn can thrive in a larger market, but not as much as you would think.

BLEEDS
08-17-2008, 04:28 PM
This is misleading. Why not just rank Dunn in OBI%?

I don't think that is the bigger portion of this argument, it's this part:


Player ROB OBI OBI% HR-RBI
Ryan Howard 373 70 18.8 33-103
Carlos Lee 358 72 20.1 28-100
David Wright 394 71 18.0 23-94
Ryan Ludwick 326 60 18.4 30-90
Adrian Gonzalez 361 61 16.9 28 -89
Adam Dunn* 269 42 15.6 32-74



almost 100 less ROB's than the other league leaders. That's RIDICULOUS and has absolutely NOTHING to do with Dunn.

Oh well, we got our small ball now, get used to it. 8 singles out of 10 hits and 3 runs. NICE!!!

if "Small Ball" = Low OBP, combined with low SLG (resulting in horribly low OPS), then yep, we've got SMALL BALL!! Congrats!!

PEACE

-BLEEDS

Fon Duc Tow
08-17-2008, 04:30 PM
I'm thinking we just unloaded the league leader in HRs for a box of crayons and 15 million dollars.

I'm also thinking that even if there was this mystical all around player available during the offseason to replace Dunn's production, it will take more to get him than what we saved by trading Dunn.

And finally, I have always thought that the knock on Dunn for "not producing enough RBI's" is the weakest criticism that could be thrown at Dunn. Say he strikes out too much, is lackadaisical, whatever... but not enough RBIs? Please. :rolleyes:

Frank Robinson anyone? ;)

kpresidente
08-17-2008, 04:35 PM
I don't think that is the bigger portion of this argument,

Of course it's the bigger part of the argument. What you want to know is how good Dunn is as a run producer seperate from his teammates.

The fact that guys aren't on base becomes irrelevant after that because you can use the OBI% to project what he would have had on a better team.

If you find that he's still not a good run producer then he's still not a good run producer, even if he's better than the Reds made him look.

kpresidente
08-17-2008, 05:32 PM
I'm also thinking that even if there was this mystical all around player available during the offseason to replace Dunn's production, it will take more to get him than what we saved by trading Dunn.

Who's going to cost more than $120 million? Teixeira? Sign me up.

BLEEDS
08-17-2008, 05:47 PM
Who's going to cost more than $120 million? Teixeira? Sign me up.

I think you can kiss that .01% - of the previous 99.99% against us signing Tex in the first place - after we signed Alonzo.

We've got too many 1st Baseman as it is.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

dougflynn23
08-17-2008, 10:23 PM
[QUOTE=DTCromer;1724913]
People were screaming and shouting at "The Trade" because they were looking at what would happen in the next day or month and not next year. Well, Felipe and Austin turned out to be what most smart fans, like myself, thought and that was OVERRATED.

QUOTE] The issue was never the fact that the Reds traded Kearns and Lopez. Both were overrated. The issue was that both had more market value than what the Reds received. It was not a bad trade based on what the Reds gave up, but moreso on what they received.

BUTLER REDSFAN
08-17-2008, 10:34 PM
He is gone and he is not coming back so let it go.

I agree 100%. He has been gone for a week now. He is gone.Move on folks, there's nothing to see here. Some of you guys need to take this private.(just an opinion)

improbus
08-17-2008, 11:12 PM
Here's what is sad. Dunn would have had over 90 RBI's here if Dusty would have just hit him fourth, because Juniors OBP was a decent .355 in Cincy.

BLEEDS
08-17-2008, 11:50 PM
Here's what is sad. Dunn would have had over 90 RBI's here if Dusty would have just hit him fourth, because Juniors OBP was a decent .355 in Cincy.

Yeah, that's pretty much the point - BUT it is hard to argue versus the "he's not here any longer" contingent...:confused:

PEACE

-BLEEDS

Lockdwn11
08-18-2008, 07:00 AM
Of course it's the bigger part of the argument. What you want to know is how good Dunn is as a run producer seperate from his teammates.

The fact that guys aren't on base becomes irrelevant after that because you can use the OBI% to project what he would have had on a better team.

If you find that he's still not a good run producer then he's still not a good run producer, even if he's better than the Reds made him look.

Great post I think it is safe to say that all those stats show is that Dunn is a good but far from great player that isn't worth the money he will be looking for this off-season. Although those stats were placed on this board to show other wise the posters here at the redszone saw right through them. I mean all that list tells me is if any of those players listed was in the Reds starting lineup they would have more RBI's then Dunn.

redsbuckeye
08-18-2008, 08:09 AM
Does OBI% penalize a player for walking with guys on?

BLEEDS
08-18-2008, 01:03 PM
Does OBI% penalize a player for walking with guys on?

No penalty, it's purely how many times he gets runners in - besides himself - no matter what happened as a result.

It takes RBI - HR, then divides that by total number of Runners on Base (ROB). No scoring position, no 2nd and 3rd with 2 outs (prime walk candidate), just pure numbers.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

BRM13
08-18-2008, 01:05 PM
To summarize so far: Dunn is not as bad at driving guys in as his critics contend. The proof, he has had fewer RBI opportunities than most 'big RBI' guys. OTOH, Dunn is not as good a 'run producer' as his fans contend because he drives in a smaller % of the guys that are actually on base.

I think that argument is interesting, but slightly off point. The goal of offense is not to get the most RBIs for yourself. The goal is for your team to score the most runs. Dunn's value is lower all else equal because he doesn't get a lot of hits with guys on base. However, his value is higher all else equal becuase he gives his team more scoring opportunties (makes fewer outs and is on base for someone else to drive in). The real question is which effect is bigger. I'd be happy to know for sure, but I thought the whole point of using OPS as a metric to judge offense was that it takes this into account (via being highly correlated with runs actually scored by the team). Thus, Dunn's high OPS is supposed to be proof that his value is high because he gives his team more chances to score than he costs his team via not driving guys in himself. So, Dunn's not an exceptional RBI guy, but his total value can still be quite high despite that fact.

redsbuckeye
08-18-2008, 01:12 PM
No penalty, it's purely how many times he gets runners in - besides himself - no matter what happened as a result.

It takes RBI - HR, then divides that by total number of Runners on Base (ROB). No scoring position, no 2nd and 3rd with 2 outs (prime walk candidate), just pure numbers.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

That's a bad formula then. It'll hurt players who walk a lot when guys are on base and those who who get hits but the guys don't score. IE, guy with 1st and 2nd gets a walk. By all means he did a good thing by not making an out but those 2 runners not batted in gets charged against him. Same if it were a short single.

Edit: or if a guy gets caught trying to get to third or home.

BLEEDS
08-18-2008, 03:35 PM
That's a bad formula then. It'll hurt players who walk a lot when guys are on base and those who who get hits but the guys don't score. IE, guy with 1st and 2nd gets a walk. By all means he did a good thing by not making an out but those 2 runners not batted in gets charged against him. Same if it were a short single.

Edit: or if a guy gets caught trying to get to third or home.

It's not a DEEP stat - and it probably doesn't calculate what you want it to calculate, but it has value.

How many guys do you drive in, when there are guys on base? Pretty simple.

Surely EVERYbody gets pitched around when there's 1st base open and 2nd and 3rd, etc... and other people get walked in other situations.

Again, this isn't a "Scoring Position" stat - a guy can be on first, and you hit a HR, it counts as one OBI - same as if you grounded out with a guy on 3rd and less than 2 outs. If anything, it undervalues the big boppers since they don't count your HRs as RBI/OBI.

Take it for what it's worth, a fairly decent counting stat that says how PRODUCTIVE a guy is at GETTING GUYS HOME.

Again, the point is not AS MUCH his percentage as the HORRIFIC lack of chances he's given because of the terrible OBP of the 1-4 guys on this team.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

redsbuckeye
08-18-2008, 04:02 PM
It's not a DEEP stat - and it probably doesn't calculate what you want it to calculate, but it has value.

How many guys do you drive in, when there are guys on base? Pretty simple.

Surely EVERYbody gets pitched around when there's 1st base open and 2nd and 3rd, etc... and other people get walked in other situations.

Again, this isn't a "Scoring Position" stat - a guy can be on first, and you hit a HR, it counts as one OBI - same as if you grounded out with a guy on 3rd and less than 2 outs. If anything, it undervalues the big boppers since they don't count your HRs as RBI/OBI.

Take it for what it's worth, a fairly decent counting stat that says how PRODUCTIVE a guy is at GETTING GUYS HOME.

Again, the point is not AS MUCH his percentage as the HORRIFIC lack of chances he's given because of the terrible OBP of the 1-4 guys on this team.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

I don't think it gives a very accurate view of a player's value at the plate when guys are on. If anything, it's a measure of a player's ability to make contact (which has value) and how often he swings (which doesn't). It also assumes all players are equal in the way they get guys in.

Useful as a comparative stat between players, which is really what this is all about anyway. But as an absolute measure of value, well I'll pass.

After all, Garret Anderson is at the top of that list, and that's a worrisome notion.

TC81190
08-18-2008, 04:56 PM
I am going to go to BLEEDS house and steal the !, ?, and caps lock keys from his keyboard.

Broooce14
08-18-2008, 04:57 PM
Is my math wrong? When I look at those stats, even if you give Dunn Ryan Howard's amount of runners on base, Dunn is still below all those guys on that list because of his low OBI% with only 58 OBI. So what's the big deal? It's not astonishing to show that if more people were on base when you hit your solo home run then more runs would score. It's also not astonishing to show that when you get up with the bases loaded and strike out, your OBI will be lower (for an example, see AZ game from last week)

757690
08-19-2008, 04:27 PM
To summarize so far: Dunn is not as bad at driving guys in as his critics contend. The proof, he has had fewer RBI opportunities than most 'big RBI' guys. OTOH, Dunn is not as good a 'run producer' as his fans contend because he drives in a smaller % of the guys that are actually on base.

I think that argument is interesting, but slightly off point. The goal of offense is not to get the most RBIs for yourself. The goal is for your team to score the most runs. Dunn's value is lower all else equal because he doesn't get a lot of hits with guys on base. However, his value is higher all else equal becuase he gives his team more scoring opportunties (makes fewer outs and is on base for someone else to drive in). The real question is which effect is bigger. I'd be happy to know for sure, but I thought the whole point of using OPS as a metric to judge offense was that it takes this into account (via being highly correlated with runs actually scored by the team). Thus, Dunn's high OPS is supposed to be proof that his value is high because he gives his team more chances to score than he costs his team via not driving guys in himself. So, Dunn's not an exceptional RBI guy, but his total value can still be quite high despite that fact.

Hey,

No fair being logical, rational and level headed. You will learn fast that doing just that will only lead to frustration here on Redszone. ;)

BTW, welcome to Redszone!

improbus
08-19-2008, 09:42 PM
Hey,

No fair being logical, rational and level headed. You will learn fast that doing just that will only lead to frustration here on Redszone. ;)

BTW, welcome to Redszone!
I thought we kicked guys like that off of the board.:rolleyes: